•Are we going to be able to pull ourselves out of this crisis? Muluka reminded us of other past national flashpoints like the 1969 assassination of Tom Mboya; the 1975 OTC bombing and killing of J.M. Kariuki;

•What is the role of the Kenyan mass media in fanning ethnic conflict?

•What is the role of the international media?

•How do Kenyan bloggers and netters fan the flames? According to Muluka, Kenyans abroad were "praying for a civil war to break out in Kenya".

I was the first one to respond. I pointed out that contrary to the misperception that all Kenyan bloggers were people spewing hate from their far off middle class abodes overseas, many of us were living, working and struggling right here in Kenya and that many of us were actually actively and consistently promoting peace building efforts and conflict transformation strategies and that it was a caricature to depict the Kenyan Diaspora as a blood-thirsty lot “praying for civil war to break out in Kenya”. The remarks of Muluka and Poghisio points to a misinformed hostility to Kenyan bloggers and especially overseas based netters which could be a precursor to some desperate attempts by the state to introduce censorship in cyberspace.

I also decried the




CRIMINALIZATION of DISSENT, not leaving out the lone American Republican when I excoriated those state actors who wanted to clamp down on such fundamental freedoms as freedom of speech, association, assembly and so on.

I went further and pointedly reminded the minister of the televised execution of my brother in law in Kisumu asking him if he was going to ensure that the police suspect would be brought to justice.

If both sides of the divide dig in, President Kibaki could form a coalition Government with ODM Kenya and other smaller parties and use state might to overcome the resistance from ODM. This would prove to be a hugely unstable environment with little prospect of the economic gains expected by his core supporters. Ultimately, President Kibaki could end up impoverishing the country even more and the result would be his alienation even by his closest supporters. On this pathway, failure would mean that the country continues to suffer disruption, economic growth comes to a halt or even decline, and the country degenerates even further into chaos. President Kibaki would not last the full five-year term in State House and it may even be untenable for him to remain in the country. This scenario would cost all stakeholders on Kibaki’s side-him personally, his key backers and financiers, the members of parliament in his Government and ultimately the general population. The impact of such state failure would be far reaching and take considerable time to restore any semblance of normalcy.

As the incumbent, President Kibaki has a lot to lose from the present circumstances. To start with, his five year legacy has been thoroughly undermined. Kibaki promised improved economic performance, the events of the last few days will see the economy perform dismally leading to lower domestic revenues and growth rate worse than what we saw during the worst Moi years. Kibaki promised democratic empowerment but the impact of the post election situation is a reversal of virtually every gain made over the last five years – more than half the population feel disenfranchised and the gains made in opening up the democratic space have been eroded-especially media freedom. Kibaki promised national unity but the country is now more divided than it has ever been at any other time in our history. In addition, Kibaki has identified himself as a champion for business but the current circumstances will see most of the business constituents suffering considerable losses which could lead to their reconsidering support for the president. Some sectors are already projecting significant losses, including total collapse. The Kibaki Government came in with the agenda of restoring international respectability for Kenya but the current situation has very seriously dented the country’s image as the world watches horrific images emanating from the country on virtually every international media. Above all, this being Kibaki’s last term, however long that lasts, it is in Kibaki’s interest to leave the country on a firm footing for greater development as envisioned in Vision 2030 which PNU run on rather than have the dubious distinction of being the president who led Kenya to disintegration and failure. The case for negotiation for President Kibaki is predicated on how he wishes to fulfill the interests of his core constituent and the legacy he leaves behind. This has a very personal implication for the president. How this crisis is resolved could very well determine whether President Kibaki is able to live in this country after his exit from State House – and the timing of such exit.

On their part Raila and ODM could maintain their hard-line stance and continue with mass action to force Kibaki out of power. For such a strategy to succeed, Raila and ODM have to be prepared to continue to stretch the security forces on many fronts, including bringing the country to the brink of civil war, until they make the country so ungovernable that they create the opportunity to take over the presidency. Given the current situation, that could take anywhere between six to over 24 months. Business comes to a standstill and we have to go out begging for resources. This could also result on a strain on regional economies to a point of near collapse -however, our neighbors will not sit back and watch as their economies are damaged and raising new political and governance issues for their own countries. On its part, the international community will continue to be concerned as they shoulder some of the responsibilities for Kenya’s failure, including having to cater for large numbers of displaced people as well as the disruption in the regional economies, some of them still very fragile. This could result in sanctions against Kenya and being seen more as a pariah state. The result of such a campaign could mean a number of possible scenarios: short term success for Raila and ODM, but long-term failure for Kenya as the country we know today; long term failure for ODM and Kenya as a country; short-term failure for Kenya but long term success as the country is rebuilt on a more firm political foundation. The conviction by ODM that they could deliver this long-term success could result in a more drawn out conflict. However, the success of such a long drawn out campaign would depend on the appetite that the key backers, financiers and citizens have for extended losses and suffering. It is unlikely that any of these stakeholders would withstand extended hardships and they may very well turn against Raila and ODM. This could mean immediate failure for Raila and ODM as Kenyans take back the agenda.