leveraging ruto

phil
Point! thats why I stay away from the daily electronic media toka nyumbani.
Ni propaganda tupu. I know I am behind when it comes to news and what going on there, but with you guys I have a pretty decent idea.
Thank you all, esp those that wade in the rotten journalistic muck on my behalf!

Folks

I think the Nation Headline was the most telling:



www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/650846/-/umpvhi/-/index.html

By now it seems obvious that the big boys who bought popcorn and front row seats ready to cheer the fist fight between Raila and Ruto particularly over the Mau saga and the complete destruction of ODM as a result are not very happy with what they are seeing. Things haven't exactly worked according to script.

The Mau for one was projected by the media and the political vultures as a Raila issue. It was as if it is only Raila who needs Kenyan rivers to flow with water, it was like it is only Raila who want our lakes surviving, our farms and livestock getting adequate water and our entire ecosystem functioning. It turns out the majority of Kenyans want the same thing. Surprise, right? It also turns out the Kalenjin communities are the most immediately and severely affected by the demolition of the Mau forest and water towers.

So all of a sudden what was supposed to be Raila's albatross and the end of his political career according to lazy pundits and media mouth pieces for politicians, becomes something embraced by the majority of Kenyans. What do you do then if you were one of those like the media who promised this big show.

Today William Ruto and even the more crazy one called Isaac Ruto fully support the evacuation of the Mau. Everybody is agreed the legit title holders have to be compensated. End of story? Yes? Actually No. In every rally, every funeral, every fundraising etc politicians including Kalonzo Musyoka have made it a habit of repeating the same thing the government has already agreed on as if they are making a new argument. It is political gimmicks at its worst. It is supposed to be a piece of candy the political opportunists are offering to show how much they love the Kalenjins. It will soon occur to them that the Kalenjin communities are not fools. Like other Kenyans the Kalenijns want a better life for their families and political propaganda offers them very little in that direction.

And now the media finds itself newsless as far as the Raila/Ruto war is concerned. So what do they do? They re-invent the story sometimes citing unnamed sources (those who did not want their names revealed) to re-energize how much the Raila/Ruto war is raging about the Mau. This is a dead war folks. Certainly not over the Mau. It will emerge in other fronts for sure.

The Nation story is a pathetic example of having a situation where folks danced themselves lame before the big dance and when the big one came they realize their well rehearsed routine is not in the menu.

Will the ODM meeting talk about the Mau. Yes it will. It is foolish for political juveniles like Kutuny to be arguing that the ODM cannot talk about issues that are in the government agenda. What else would they talk about. If you were in the US today any GOP meeting will talk about health care, any Democratic party meeting will talk about health care. It is the hottest topic today in the US so any gathering of political opinion leaders will talk about it.

Same with the Mau and environmental protection in Kenya. In fact I would be happy if the ODM meeting ends up with a declaration that ODM is committed to protecting all water towers in the republic and to environmental protection in the entire country. That would be more sensible to Kenyans than a declaration that from now on Raila and Ruto will love each other to death. May be they will but it really doesn't matter to me or to most Kenyans.

Then they have the tribunal issue which I have addressed in another thread. Turns out majority of Kenyans want justice for the victims of the 2007/8 PEV. Surprise surprise!

It would be nice if ODM as a party makes a declaration that they are opposed to impunity and to tell Kenyans how they expect to implement that position. That is what Kenyans want to hear, not when Raila and Ruto will give each other a hug and how often.

All said those who were waiting for a bull fight between Raila and Ruto may be hugely disappointed come tomorrow. That is as it should be. It just happens that it is not the most important issue to Kenyans. But the media has a job to do and a few bucks to make. I would never begrudge them that right. I mean what else would they do for a living. We all have to make a living.

PM.

I take William Ruto's meeting with Jimmy Kibaki and Kiema Kilonzo (Standard Headline today www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=1144022909&cid=4&ttl=Ruto%20meets%20Jimmy%20Kibaki%20hours%20to%20ODM%20talks) both of the Simama Kenya non starter as a comical relief. I hear the Simama fellas want to create the Obama phenomenon in Kenya. That is why I say it is a comical relief. It is bad stand up comedy and it is usually disastrous. Just utter nonsense but Ruto has a right to meet and strategize with anybody he wants.

adongo

nereah

My sense is that Ruto will keep his brinkmanship as you call it. That is how Kenyan political big shots behave. They don't talk with each other to solve problems that affect citizens, they shout at each other to demonstrate how important they are.

Take the Mau issue for example. Things would be moving very fast for the local folks if Ruto simply picks the phone and talks to the PM every time he thinks things are going out of hand with contradictory government statements on the Mau. He is probably one of the very few people who would get the PM on the phone any time he wants. But No, to do that would be unKenyan for politicians. Instead of seeking solutions they have to attend every funeral, call endless press conferences, send proxies and do all sorts of moves to make noise. In Kenya any time a politician is seen to be taking on "powerful" figures they feel very good about themselves. They feel like self made rock stars. It is insane and even comical at times.

In the Mau issue, the solution is simple to me if everybody was working in the same direction. The local M.Ps would be working with the government right now to help the Mau settlers form land buying cooperatives, identify available land (yes they are there) and working on modalities for organized relocation. That is what these people should be doing, but No it is much cheaper and politically more lucrative to engage in useless shouting matches in the hope of raising political profiles of individuals.

Speaking of the the mau issue I think for the first time the government should solve this matter by using a reverse technique from what they have done before. Instead of dealing with the illegals first and creating a circus, deal with the legals and the illegals will have no feet to stand on. Deal with those with legit title deeds first and ignore the rest.

Start relocating them and compensating them and get people moving out. The illegal settlers and ghost land holders will disappear on their own and they will have nobody to support them.

For example take that 6,000 ADC land stolen by politicians who are now denying they own it and tell the first 2,000 title holders to come out that they will get 3 acres a piece. People will dash out with titles deeds in hand. Then get to work. In no time the other crooks will just melt into the air.

On the big picture of who will ally with who towards the 2012, my sense and wish is that the voters shift away from I am a raila supporter, I am a ruto supporter or Uhuru supporter to identifying the vision of Kenya they want and identify the right leadership to fulfill those ideals. For the most part the trend has been moving towards that direction.

Yes Kenyan voting patterns are still tribal and money still is the lubricant to win votes but the trend points to a more sophisticated and very demanding electorate. It is for that reason that I think a leader like Raila should focus more on a clear vision that tallies with what Kenyans really need, efficient service delivery, working closely with progressive elements and segments of society as opposed to fishing for tribal kingpins. That is where the future is at.

adongo

tnk

Your summary is spot on. Very sharp. Thank you.

The emphasis here is to deal with legal title holders first and ignore the illegals for now. There are two types of illegals. There are simple peasants some of whom are just desperate for land. Others have been sent there by politicians who told them to go there and wait for government money. The other illegals are the land grabbers. The executive squatters. We will deal with them later.

Now if government starts by attacking and burning the huts of the illegal settlers we will have a disaster. There will pictures of nut case government officials burning huts and animals and poor peasants being bundled like livestock moving to nowhere. That is horrible.

Once that begins the legal title holders will panic. The illegals will seek support from the others who will be thinking well as soon as the government finishes burning the houses of the others theirs will be next. Before you know it you will have complete chaos and mayhem and a traumatized community will do anything they have to survive. That is exactly what the prophets of doom and the political vultures want. They should not be allowed that luxury at all at least for the sake of innocent folks whose any mistake is that they were given legal title deeds by their own government.

Remember Moi gave about 5,000 title deeds. Kibaki gave about 12,000 title deeds in 2005 to try to win the referendum. Most of Kibaki's title deeds are for small holdings by peasants. A fraction of the Moi title deeds are also for peasants. The rest are executive squatters from the Moi family, political operators and friends. Macharia Gaitho calls them State House squatters.

So what we need done is offer real choices and alternatives to the small scale legit holders and empower them to take advantage of those choices. In other words give them money. As they move out the small scale illegals will realize their scheme is not working. They will just leave.

So once the whole place is cleared which could take months even a year, what will remain are the executive squatters with their big farms. So what are they going to do? Thump their nose at Kenyans and say hey we stole your land and what are you going to do about it? Go to court? Whatever. Kenyans will laugh them out of there. In fact many of the ghost land holders are going to melt peacefully in the background to avoid embarrassment. Already there are six ghost companies owning about 20,000 acres. Those companies do not even exist in the books. I suspect those are Moi related companies.

In summary my suggestion for the PM and the secretariat he has put in place is to operate on a very effective method. Instead of going into the swamp and the mud to wrestle with the alligators/crocodiles and the other dangerous creatures in there, just slowly drain the swamp and the ugly things will be left stranded. They will look pathetic and their entire scheme will be over at least as far as Mau goes.

I also suggest that as people are moved out start the conservation work. We don't have to wait until everybody is out. I believe the money for conservation is already pouring on. So these guys should get busy on both fronts and get all the people who want to do positive stuff involved. Forget the politics. Just do the work and the politics will take care of itself.

adongo

It's all about timing.

With new political party laws it may be tricky to officially walk-out of ODM early....probably only feasible for last minute defections...but then again defection to wapi?

Mass defection(s) also depend on how 'normal' the political situation in Kenya will be.

Kenya's politics will never be 'normal' between now and the next elections precisely because a lot of anticipated explosive events stand in the way such as;

(a) the new Katiba battle (& whether devolution, land reforms, & a parliamentary system is adopted).

If Kenya adopts a pure parliamentary system, the political matrix will completely change. There might be a top-heavy attempt by like-minded MPs from within and without ODM, to ruffle and scuttle Raila's grip on ODM's majority numbers in parliament - through top-heavy realignments (anticipated defections). The only question is - will that really affect the grassroots masses inclination to remain in ODM.

Defecting politicians may be at variance with the grassroots, let's keep that in mind. The Sotik, Bomet, Ainamoi (earlier) and more recent Bomachoge and Shinyalu by-elections taught us that voting waves (euphoric patterns) still exist and party brand names actually still matter.

Kalonzo Musyoka, Julia Ojiambo & co, when defecting from Raila's faction of ODM thought there would be massive grassroots shift into Kalonzo's party, only to realise he only went with some of his kinsmen.

(b) Then - If it is William Ruto charged with leading the supposed ODM-mass-walkout of MPs as predicted by Musa Sirma, it's important to put into context what effect actions/or inactions by Ocampo / ICC will have on the process. Who will be following him? Will it be only some Kalenjin MPs in isolation?

How for instance would political first-timers like Joho and Namwamba sell Ruto or Ruto's party to their constituents (mainly ODMers), very close to the general elections, if say Ruto (& /or Uhuru Kenyatta) are being investigated for PEV (just an assumption)? If major prosecutions appear likely in the Hague in 2011 or even 2012, I suspect some of these individuals will make less political impact outside their bases.

(c) The Mau relocation project (success, stalling or a disaster) will shape whether Ruto gets a head-start in peasant-level politics in South Rift or not.

At the moment, I suspect the ordinary Mau peasant still see him for what he is - appreciating his populist rhetoric in their defense, yet also understanding that being exactly like Moi, he represents elite land-interests spanning colonial, Kenyatta, Moi & Kibaki era that have generally locked out ordinary Kalenjin peasantry from land ownership in RVP. They know Ruto is not Seroney.

There is also a danger in trying to sabotage Raila's efforts in Mau. First, you offend the rest of the country, second, you only bring uncertainty to Kipsigis settlers who want final closure on this matter. Many of these settlers can't even build permanent homes because of fear of demolitions/evictions...so they would rather be resettled to a permanent home and move on with their lives. Such are actually hoping that Raila finally resettles them.

Therefore, if Kibaki combines with Uhuru (Finance Minister), Saitoti (boss of the APs and GSUs), Wekesa (boss of Forest wardens), Michuki ( Environment), and the two Rutos to sabotage the Mau relocation process to make just for the simple reason to make Raila look bad...the peasantry may actually get it and react accordingly.

Mau is not Raila's albatros as most think. It is the entire nation's problem. Masai's are blaming lack of downstream rivers and pasture on it....so are Keiyos in Eldama Ravine, declining rivers and Lake water in Western & Nyanza and general decline in rainfall nationally, which also leads to many other problems including power and water rationing.

The entire nation can accurately pin blame where it is due and I think even Kipsigis peasants can be mad at acts of political sabotage jeopardizing their future.

I did not think Ruto is the monster in ODM I heard people call him. He is only standing for what he thinks are his peoples' rights, especially the poor Kales on their votes his political future depends. Ruto is an asset to ODM. His past is not very welcoming but I think he had redeemed himself by dethroning Moi/Biwott - his old masters thus filling the power vacuum created. Looking at his former friends in Youth of Kanu - Jirongo, Sam Nyamweya, Sankuli - Ruto seems to have cut a nationalistic picture for himself of course with a strong local roots to buttress his political ambitions. The maize scandal only helped to popularise him. I think Raila needs to accomodate Ruto.

On the Mau, what I would like to see is a comprehensive approach in dealing with all the 'stolen' forest lands. We still have Karura Forest, Ngong Road and Kiptagich Forests illegally and irregularly allocated, and of course now Mau.

I support Ntimama's point of view. There should never be compensation of people allocated 'stolen land'. Instead the allotees should face criminal justice for unjust enrichment. But, we are seeking political not legal solutions and willing to give compensation solution a chance.

The problem is that even when these stolen lands are recovered, they wil be returned to Gov't Ministries and Parastatals ending in irregular allocation again. I think we need to have in place a mechanism like a National Trust where all public land is owned and managed by the National Trust. Such Trust will then administer the land giving annual accounts. The benefit of such arrangement will be I believe enhanced
accountability and transparency which we are lacking at the moment on public lands

PM

Ruto is a politician who will want to play for the gallery and would therefore say what he thinks his constituents want to hear. I think he has said things he should not have but that is realpolitik. Secondly, the repel in ruto is simply because he is in the PEV list as a perpertrator and is consolidating his people's support. It is his fighting plan againt the Special tribunal or the ICC. Ruto is buiding his own defence. Raila on the other hand is sure he is not in the list and furthermore he is a more senior member who can easily accomodate Ruto with some of his divergent views without necessary reading sabotage and backmail.

Trust me - Ruto is a powerhouse within RV and as I said it is time ODM learn to accomodate him. If there was anything against him, people would have used that to bring him down long time ago. Ruto walked out of Uhuru to join ODM and is not trusted by Uhuru. Kibaki tried to finish him when Ruto was charged with theft of over Kshs 100 Million from Kenya Pipeline Company with no success. I seriously doubt if Ruto can join forces with Kibaki successor as claimed simply because there is alot of bad blood between Kibaki's camp and him.

Nereah;

Pressmen sometimes behave as if the heavens are about to fall down. How many times has Raila Odinga featured on Kenyan headlines since 1982? How many times and how many analysts have written him off? Surely it will take a little more than this!

Politics is a very funny animal. It is like the story of the blind people and the elephant: some people will only touch the tail, others the ears while, yet others the stomach. None will fully understand the entire animal.

I do not want to say all what I really think just yet, but I do know that the most important and impressive political moves are usually made away from the glare of the media.

In general, there are at least three predictions I can make very boldly:
1. Raila Odinga will still be a happy and influential man in January 2013
2. Several Kenyans will still be dealing with issues related to the PEV in January of 2013
3. A vicious turf war will break out over the revenue allocation formula between the National Government and Counties and among counties

This is now looking explicitly real and there must definitely be a reason for this early jostling. It's now apparent Moi has released his attack dogs on Ruto. While Kulei readies to testify against Ruto, wakina Nick Salat are waging battle to wrestle KANU away from Uhuru.





Moi's troop must simultaneously tandaza the KANU bed for return of the Kalenjin. I think the timing of this coincides with both: the announcement of future Kalenjin defection into UDM & the recent confirmation of the KK alliance (without Kalonzo).


Moi is hoping to forestall mass Kalenjin migration into UDM - which he calls a 'one-man' party. He instead wants to herd them back into ile KANU ya Gideon Moi, Paul Sang na Nick Salat (not ile ya Uhuru).


I suspect Moi's horse in the 2012 presidential race will be KANU blue-eye & lately ODM-K mark-timer, Kalonzo Musyoka. Whether far-fetched or not, I will not be surprised if Moi backs (aka funds) Kalonzo, expecting the latter to return favour by nominating a Kalenjin who happens to be called Gideon Moi, as running mate.


I will not be surprised the actual presidential contest already being waged is a battle for number two position in the first round.


Looks like many players have assumed Raila will make it through the top two in round one, but fail to get the 50%+1 threshold, necessitating a run-off with a second candidate.


Thus it matters a lot who this other candidate to face Raila will be. Uhuru & Ruto probably think they can assemble a youthful assembly to topple ODM in a top-two run-off. Kalonzo is determined to be that candidate likely to face Raila/ODM in the runoff.


Moi has probably placed his bets and feet around Kalonzo, the latter hoping to cash in on political misfortunes of Uhuru and Ruto (either via ICC or in Ruto's case, corruption cases as well).


This is going to be very interesting...Within ODM, it's almost unanimous Raila will be their Captain in 2012. But on the other side, it's going to be a protracted war over who gets to go for the run-off.


The first battles are already being waged. Within Central, Karua is already being figuratively mortar-shelled and bombed with 'spoiler' labels. Within the Kalenjin, Ruto has unanimously won the first battles and wading through Moi's traps, and Mutula Kilonzo's vigorous & relentless push via ICC. Within KKk, Ruto's lackeys are sending grenades to dislodge Kalonzo and his 'k'. Saitoti and Co., are also angling for position.


Expect bitter fallouts, betrayals, and back-stabbing. I can safely predict that you can never know who is going to rally behind who in the run-offs, if it gets to come. Will anyone be surprised if ODM gets unexpected support from some sour-grapes within PNU?


Carefully watch out for the Kamba vote. If Kalonzo ain't the other run-off candidate, the bitterness may lead to an unexpected swing of their vote. And in case Ruto is nailed by ICC, the real debate on blame apportionment has not started. Those hoping to cash in may actually suffer the blame - watch this too. Let's also brace for the ICC process and see the trajectory it brings to the national political discourse.

Job
In a different thread, where the wakili stated that the Kalenjins have said adios to the Hon Prime Minister, and wont vote for him, I asked him to state who they will vote for, for P.O.R.K.

To say that I got no response and that the silence was deafening is the understatement of the yr. Realistically can anyone tell me why the Kalenjins in RV will vote for jomo jnr? I have yet to meet this kind of voter. Similarly I have yet to meet a Gema voter who can say with any degree of affirmation and enthusiasm, that s/he wants ruto as veep with jomo jnr as P.O.R.K.

Has anyone thought seriously about having ruto veep to jomo jnr? Has anyone really thought about the role of a veep vis a vis P.O.R.K? Does anyone think that ruto will be the loyal veep in the mold of kipkorios or uncle moody or even the contemptible a$$ licking Judas KM?

Has this ticket been thought through ama folks are just payayukaring, blindly opening their mouths, sounding of inanities?

Has this ticket been thought through by the power barons on both sides? Do you think the mafiya REALLY will want ruto a heart away from the Presidency?

In the event this combo makes it, you can be assured ruto's allies WONT BE NEAR SOME PRESTIGIOUS DOCKETS like internal security, Finance or even the combustible Land Ministry. And you think ruto will take this lying down? Think again.

ruto's baggage, recklessness, self promoting egotistical maniacal ways now make me ambivalent about the stealing of the 2007 elections. Perhaps greater chaos, economic graft, lawlessness and gridlock and political chicanery have been avoided with the mafiya in power. Tough to believe but its very possible.

ruto is a man I dont ever want near me. Such a talented and gifted man imbued with morals twisted as new York pretzel. Good riddance, I will chinja a goat the day he leaves ODM. His charisma enables him to twist issues and mold them into lies as he sees fit, blaming everyone but him for his travails. What a fellow this guy is.

As for the Kalenjin vote, there is one or two or three things for sure, I can state right now.

-They wont be voting for ruto for P.O.R.K as he wont be a candidate for the highest office and never will be a viable candidate for that office. Ever.

-They will be splintered to some degree, ODM will get its share, kipkorios's candidate will also tug at their hearts and then there are those with ruto.

As of now its a very complex affair, and those saying that the Hon Prime Minister is out of the mix are not admitting to some facts.

In the structure of the new electoral system, it certainly does not help much in communities adopting wholesome anti-RAO or anti-Ruto votes. Citizens will have to think very hard about electing leaders and political parties because those will directly impact on their lives after the elections and in future. Besides, political parties have a serious challenge in complying with the law, acting within certain timelines and selling their manifestos to the public.


Look at it from this point of view: What is the benefit of winning the presidency and having the previlege of forming cabinet, if your political party has a minority in parliament and the senate?

Past experience shows that RV has been misled many a time and in 2007 victory that they played a major part in achieving was snatched from Kenyans with much cruelty and at a very high cost. Mwai Kibaki was elected president in 2002 without the RV vote. The 2010 constitution was voted for and adopted without much of the RV vote. So really, it is not the RV vote that determines election victors or losers.

As I opined the other day, there is need for deep civic education in Kenya particulary RV. In this day and age elements in the former Rift Valley have to be educated to drop this retrogressive and primitive warrior mentality of intimidating with threats, violence, etc those communities within RV which do not vote with them or follow their way of thinking. It is something that others try very much to replicate in digital space including right here in Jukwaa. Do people not have a right to think, act and vote differently?

What I want to assure people here is that ODM does not fear elections, whether there exists an anti-RAO vote or not. So long as elections are free and fair, the party shall respect and live with the results. The party cannot impose itself on Kenyans.