Opinion Piece from Rashid Wanjala

These idea of neck to neck!! and close race!! too close to call is what gave Kenya 200-2008 PEV..there after a mismatched Coalition government!! Opinion polls are not about what Kenyans think or want for their country.. let the pollsters allow Kenyans to engage and vote without the false hype.

Just ask Palestinians when they democratically elected Hamas. They were punished severely and that's what kenyans fear. So the journalist is spot on

Only if you don't separate imports and exports and think that running a large trade deficit with China, importing junk, is just fine.

Looking at our exports in 2011:

* UK is ranked #2, taking 10%
* Netherlands is ranked #4, taking 6%
* USA is ranked #5, taking 5%

* India is ranked #14, taking 2%
* China is not among our top 25 export markets

Even Afghanistan imports more from us than either China or India!

Imports vs. Exports: Which one puts money into our pockets?

And then you forget other things, like the $500 million/year that comes from the USA for health, as well as numerous types of non-trade money that flows from the West.

I agree with otishotish, China contribution is overated, and thier agenda is extraction and nothing to do with capital investments or exchange. Our relationship with them has to fundamentally change if our relationship with them will be beneficially sustainable – the back lash building up is already evident.

Kenya would have fallen apart long time ago if it was not for grants (in all its forms) remittances from the Diaspora, short term relief from skewed privatisations, the artificial pirate economy and debt.

When the majority of the people live with under one dollar a day, I think the right question to ask is how have we barely survived in the last ten years and I would hazard an to answer that if you compute the figures and lay on the facts – the right answer would be that the majority of Kenyans in the last ten years have been living (surviving) in poverty.

We need a massive constructive and co-ordinated reconstruction not just receipt of grants to
build roads

When the majority of the people live with under one dollar a day , I think the right question to ask is who are those who have been surviving in the last ten years.

I know you don't like them, but they are not my stats. So if they don't add up to you, you need to talk to the sources, which include the KRA and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Here are quick summaries (e.g. the table in the first one):

www.epckenya.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=806&Itemid=224

knbs.or.ke/downloads/pdf/Kenyafacts2012.pdf

Once again: there is no point in making a lot of noise about the volume of trade with the likes of China when that trade consists of them making money off us.

Perhaps Kenya should then ask Mrs. Clinton who should be crowned president instead of spending all the time and money in campaigns for everyone yet struggling not to elect those she would oppose so tumultuously. I don't know why the lady would have said what she said in the first place, because it is utterly in contradiction with America's democratic principles.

Figures like these are always intriguing. A key question is what is included in the budget and what is not. To try and answer this, I took a look at one particular sector, the very important one of the Health budget. Here are some facts:

(1) From 2009/2010 to 2010/2011, the Health Budget increased by about 18%. All of that increase was due to a huge increase in donor funding, from the usual donors.

(2) Donor aid currently acounts for about 30% of the budget, and this has been increasing over the years---8% in 1995, 16% in 2000, etc. And that's before we get to (3).

(3) Most significantly, most (about two-thirds) of the donor aid to the sector is not included in the budget.

(1) and (2) have raised issues as regards sustainability of future increases in the budget if the government itself is not financing those increases. In addition to the obvious issue of "we finance so much of our buget", (3) has raised issues about how to ensure the effective use of money that is "off-budget".

I also noticed that there are all sorts of NGOs and the like pumping in money for things that the government would otherwise have to find money for and that these are not necessarily included in "donor aid". In this regard, I was "amused" to note that the Clinton Foundation alone has contributed a lot to Kenyan health---more than many governments (including the beloved China)---but I bet that's not common knowledge.

Today, being Sunday, was a slow day, so I amused myself by looking at all sorts of figures to determine how much money GoK would have to find from elsewhere (budget and off-budget) if it decided to tell the detested West to bugger off. I got a hearty laughy from the "5%" and how people interpret it. I started by looking at the obvious sources of revenues.

We know the current situation of exports. Could we export more to our new friend, China? They aren't big coffee drinkers. As for tea, we've all had the joke about exporting tea to China. Which brings us to one of the largest sectors of the Kenyan economy: tourism, one of the top sources of the foreign currency that we need to buy junk fro China. Do I need to state where the tourists largely come from now? No? Good. Can we replace the with Chinese? The Chinese, as they emerge from dire poverty---and most are still in dire poverty---are still much like rural Africans in their travel dreams: they want to be able to brag to their friends about having been to America and Europe' "primitive energy" is not a huge attraction for them. Looking at where they go now, as well as projections by "tourism operators" there, we can forget that one.

And so on I went, looking at all sorts of figures ... But let's fast-forward to the chase: how well could we do if we told the West to bugger off? I'm inclined to believe that Kenya will not face any serious sanctions even if we have a President Uhuru, but one never knows. Nevertheless, should we decide to go that way, we have a "case-study" that tells us how it would go: Zimbabwe. Comrade Mugabe is a manly sort of man who looks everyone in the eye and tells them what's what. He has manfully stood up to the West and told them where to get off with their neo-colonialism. Tough guy with Chinese friends. A true African hero, like his friend King of Kings, Khaddafi. And now Zimbabwe is Zimbabwe.

It all depends on which stats you are looking at to support an argument. You say that only $87 million came from the Global Fund in 2009 but in another report by the Global Fund, there is a claim to a disbursement of $204 million.

portfolio.theglobalfund.org/en/Country/Index/KEN
What you fail to recognise is that very little of this money is channeled directly to the government and is part of what is 'eaten' by the characters in the NGO sector who I cannot stand!

So if you in your thinking this money will be taken away just because we are foolish enough to elect Ruto as our President, I am afraid you are WRONG.

Facts and figures are stubborn animals, but naturally one can chose not to do the arithmetic and arrogantly assume all is well.
I chose not to live in a parallel universe.

“Primitive Energy” – I will say no more!

...and not a single road, hospital of power plant to show for it. 95% of the money to NGOS and activists for the AIDS money you were talking about earlier. And for your information it works to only 6% of the 2012 budget and was actually not factored in the US$ 17.4 billion budget.

so knock off the 6% equivalent of our budget that the US will take out...what else do you have up your sleeve that will impoverish us if we do not vote for Raila??