ODM has to wake UP!

[abdulmote]

We have had the referendum that should never have been considering the 'pre-known' consequences. Worst still we are even further back than the 'square one' we had envisaged before dispite the costs.

ODM have had all the people's goodwil behind them during and after the referendum, but it now appears as if all has come to naught. The group is eagerly begging Kibaki for a meeting, as if naively expecting anything better than what they have already been dared with before and after the refendum!

To me, I see ODM as the lot that should have been but never was. For them to expect Kibaki and his troupes to be worthy of any faith on behalf of the public is but a shallow dream. Indeed Kibaki has already betrayed the people many a times before and a few more times should not come as a surprise. Worst of all upon the Constitution issue. Sometimes I just wonder how foolish can any one be to believe that Kibaki is genuinely capable of providing the nation with the Constitution it so desperately needs especially after what we have already seen of him.

But more than anything, I fear that ODM is not performing as it should simply due to some 'selfish' reasons amongst its leaders, as had been their characteristics historically so! This 'fifty fifty' strategy in the manner they are going about their business only confirms the ODM's inherent leadership hypocricy. Kibaki has already shown that he does not have the interests of the nation in his heart. Billions have indeed been sacrificed at the expense of the taxpayer during the referendum without a blink of an eye purely for his own selfish reasons. To expect anything better or a change of heart from the same is nothing but stupidity of the highest order imaginable!

I say ODM has to wake up to reality if anything is to happen with regards to the Constitution making. This time round the stakes will even be higher considering that the public will be somehow excluded in having a say on the final document. The risk that a document probable even worst than the Wako's draft being pushed through is but real irrepective of the potential and resultant outcome.

It is true that Kibaki has shown that he can literally get away with anything he chooses to. Afteall, was it not Chris who once said that the "Government has the monopoly of force"?

People. I feel as if we have all lost it to the bananas. I feel vulnerable and almost impotent despite all that triumphant win. But worst of all, I blame the ODM for what I feel.

[miguna]

Abdulmote:

Once again, you may blaming the wrong "person" or "party" or "group." For starters, what exactly did you expect ODM to do after the referendum? ODM wanted to organize rallies around the country to thank their supporters for sending the Mongrel Draft to the cemetry; but Kibaki and Michuki warned that the government goons will be unleashed on the people to loot, kill and destroy like they did in Kisumu and Mombasa. If ODM went ahead with their rallies and people got killed and property destroyed, wouldn't we have heard condemnations about "these bunch of thugs and hooligans calling themselves ODM...?" Would people not have said that ODM is recklessly engaging in destructive activities? If ODM unilaterally took the initiative and started organizing for a reconstituted Constitutional Assembly of some sort to jump start the stalled process - wouldn't we be hearing about "ODM acting like the government; being unilateral; being exclusive; etc?" Now, when ODM acts reasonable and extends an olive branch to the recalcitrant government, why are we blaming them? Are they not supposed to show magnanimity, even in their victory? It is Kibaki and his kitchen that has refused to reciprocate. Why not blame the arrogant dictator? In any event my brother, one would have to exhaust all "available peaceful means" of resolving the problems before resorting to any "extreme measures." I think that is thw winning formula.

It is dangerous for people to have expected that just because ODM won the referendum, it could "overthrow" the government by "force." ODM, obviously, would have been more instrumental had Kibaki not suspended parilament. Without a functioning parliament, what legitimate or legal forum would you want ODM to utilize towards realizing your dreams?

No my friend, we cannot achieve much through sheer unrestrained euphoria. We must be careful not to play into Kibaki's hands. Whsat you are saying and expected is exactly what "they" wanted ODM and the rest of us to do - be reckless. We must avoid recklessness even if that means disappointing lots of people in the short-term. Proper organization and disciplined action take time to execute. Moreover, any serious person would not have expected LDP, Kanu and others from Ford People, Civil Society, etc, to magically gel into a united political party overnight. Give ODM a bit of time Abdulmote, before you start the blame game. But always remember that ODM has already done what it was mandated to do - reject the Wako Mongrel. Maybe it is time that some of - including you my brother, headed for the trenches in order to do what we have ASSUMED ODM should be doing for us. What about that for a change?

[unedited]
-Miguna-

[kamalet]

The unravelling of the ODM

Story by MUTUMA MATHIU
Publication Date: 1/8/2006

The Orange Democratic Movement, it would appear, has begun to unravel. I have watched the events of the past week with rising fascination. It occurs to me that none of the so-called ODM luminaries is prepared to hold back, none is willing to take the back seat, none is willing to recognise the relative merits of the other or acknowledge their own political weaknesses. The greed and irrational ambition of Kenyan politics is enough to make even the stoutest of optimists despair.

There are three main prongs in the ODM, the way I see it. There is, first and foremost, former Roads minister Raila Odinga, an indefatigable campaigner who brings demonstrable populist capabilities and the votes of Nyanza. He is the undisputed leader.

Then there is former Environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka, who arrives with the votes of his homeland and poll ratings which show him to be the one politician who could beat President Kibaki in an election. Of course, it takes more than poll ratings to win an election. You need money, lots of it, you need organisational resources, you need good political and governmental connections.

Finally, there is Mr William Ruto, Kanu Secretary-General and former Home Affairs minister. Mr Ruto is really just the tip of the iceberg. Below the waterline where you see him jutting out lies the extensive and powerful political/commercial/Rift Valley edifice created by former President Moi.

There is also Mr Musalia Mudavadi, the man who was Vice-President for a couple of months and who is viewed as ODM's window into Western Province. In 2002, Mr Mudavadi was revealed as a politician whose political judgment leaves a lot to be desired after he defected to Rainbow then buckled under pressure and rejoined Kanu for the reward of temporary vice-presidency. He lacks the ruthless, stab-your-grandmother-in-the-back drive which is the essential quality of every successful politician.

Then there is Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, who does not have all that much experience but has land, money and the Kenyatta pedigree. The assumption all along, among the public and many politicians, has been that Mr Odinga would himself not run for the presidency but would support one of the others in exchange for the premiership, which would be created in such a way that the real power is taken away from the imperial presidency and lots of it invested in the prime minister.

I don't know when it became a political truism that Mr Odinga couldn't win a straight presidential contest. But politicians and bar-room analysts have hitherto assumed that Mr Odinga's best route to power is through proxy.

Not that those theories matter any more now since he has decided to put them to the test. If Mr Odinga runs for the Liberal Democratic Party ticket, as he has announced he will, I am willing to bet a cow that he will get it. His rivals for power in ODM will quote democracy and swear to support the winner, but I am willing to bet another cow that Mr Musyoka will run for president whether the LDP ticket goes to Mr Odinga or to the Queen of Sparta.

I am willing to bet yet another cow – that's the third cow I am putting on the line – that it is not the intention of Mr Moi, or his icebergs, to put Mr Odinga in power. Therefore, Kanu will have a candidate running against Mr Odinga, whether it is Mr Ruto or Mr Kenyatta that remains to be seen. And that is what I am calling the unravelling of ODM. Politicians, like actors, are hooked on and get off on, public adulation. I have never met a politician who does not believe without question his or her own popularity.

Let me speculate. Mr Musyoka has been watching the opinion polls with rising confidence. He has been counting on the unquestioning support of Mr Odinga at every step of the way to 2007. My bet is that right now Mr Odinga's declared candidature makes him feel let down and betrayed.

With time, he will be convinced, either by himself or his minders, that Mr Odinga is just another impediment on the way to State House, which requires to be overcome. As the most popular politician in his party and the one with the best chance of being elected, why shouldn't he be anointed and supported by the lesser quantities?

There is another dimension. Like other tribal chieftains, Mr Musyoka is a hostage to the ambitions of the elite of his own community. If he does not run for president, there is every chance that he would no longer enjoy the united support of his tribe. His own continued relevance depends on going all the way and not settling for second best.

I could be wrong, of course.

[aeichener]

The ODM was never coherent. It was a fragile and unlikely alliance of the most unfitting and otherwise strongly opposed bedfellows, from left to far right, united only in one common negative goal. Whether a joint movement can hammered out of the ODM, remains to be seen. I for one would be happy about it, but think it to be unlikely.

Alexander

[abdulmote]

Thank you gentlemen for showing your concerns. I always believe it is good to talk.

miguna:

May I declare that I firmly stand by my observations above.

No, I was never expecting or indeed trying to encourage recklessness as a response to the resultant Referendum win for us. But neither will I encourage omissions of logical acts and fair criticisms simply because I 'have to pledge' my "blind support" to our 'newly acquired' 'soldiers of the people'! Nay, I say, that should not be, or why should it if at all?

You see, the current situation we find ourselves in did not come as a surprise to me. The eventual win and the subsequent 'failure' of converting that win into desirable and worthy outcome, was not at all a remote imagination considering the obvious composition of the group ODM! And this I state wihtout any reservations whatsoever.

True to point out that it would be a good change to go down into the "trenches" and get to do what needs to be done! But unfortunately and with deep regrets, I have not yet been able to accomplish my prioritised requirements and demands, just as many other persons who find themselves in one situation or another that they are hindered for now. Personal issues should not be of anybody's interest that they may spilled over here.

Some people were on record before the Referendum and that includes myself, that a re-negotiation on the Draft Const. was the right way forward, without the unnecessary costs attached to the then fouled Referendum. But no, very few had the courage of seeing it that way and were ferocious and highly subjective in defending their seemingly "reckless" views!

Is it not now becoming clear that all what the ODM pack was mainly keen on was the political 'mileage' the referendum win 'would have' provided them? Why do I say so? Are you categorically convinced that what the ODM has been doing is the logical step following the subject outcome? How about some similarly zealous and honest criticism in looking at this issue just as well eh? Am I that erroneous?

Without going too deep into some individual acts of some individual members of the ODM at this stage, have you ever paused for once, and asked yourself what sort of characters most of the politicians if not all within the ODM's leadership were? Were they not at some point or another the very ones who in one way or another helped to create the monster of Kenyan politics we very well have come to know? Did you ever ask yourself whether they were not the very ones who had been praising and 'pledging loyalty' to the very same president who has betrayed the public time and again? How inconsistent has one to be in Kenyan politics to be seen as inconsistent? Or is that level of inconsistency to be treated simply as humanly mistakes and nothing but mistakes, and for all the time? Seriously, could they be so 'angelic' as we make ourselves to imagine they are?

But what disturbs me most, is the lack of honest criticisms which are levelled objectively and appropriately without fear or favour against such individuals. Many a times I find various others so deeply immersed in promoting partisan propaganda which to me can only mean and result in the perpetuation of our cancerous and self-destructive tendencies we so many times declare our distaste upon!

I am not saying that we should have been reckless. How can you miguna? How can you so naively simplify the logical actions down to some mere "recklessness" as you put it? Is that assumption the only reasonable one you could come up with?

How about some visible efforts towards consolidating that win and converting it into the voice of the people as it was meant to be? How about ODM being seen as the people who are ready, willing and dedicated towards fighting for true representation of the majorities' views? How about judicially challenging Kibaki's unconstitutional decree on banning the ODM's 'thanks giving' rallies irrespective of the hypothetical reaction from the government? How about arousing the public's awareness on the blatant abuse of the presidential powers Kibaki is undertaking through whatever other mediums available? How about initiating moves towards establishing a serious and formal framework design capable of undertaking its rightful participation towards the expected Review as is expected of all to do? How about continuing with the people's demands and press on against the president and his cronies until they understand and can appreciate that they can not get away with it by openly and vigorously highlighting Kibakis mis-leadership? But begging for a meeting and being turned down? Come on!!

Oh, I forgot! Diplomacy is the word. We have "to talk" you see. Or is it 'negotiate'? Damn! The chap had just 'swindled' Kenyans out of a whole referendum costing us more than fifteen years, over ten billion shillings and a number of lives without a blink of an eye! He has unconstitutionally banned the Orange's public rallies as we know of, and got away with it. He prorogued the Parl, messed about with the Cabinet and even refuses to come up with a clear and acceptable plan of how he is going to initiate the review almost two months later! Can he and should he be trusted ever again? I wonder how foolish that is to be.

I will cut it short brother regrettably for want of time. As far as I am concerned, Kibaki is a deceiver, a hypocrite and dishonest in his behaviour. But such are the symptoms that can be seen inherent in many if not all of our favourable leadership. Inconsistencies and extremely eccentric behaviour among them is but a norm. And the public's naivety and partisan reactions do not help to amend such a situation. Every time the public's rights have been sold before our very own eyes, we have said amen. Indeed honest and bold criticisms against our leaders is something that should be encouraged for the sake of the public's wellbeing. Never again should we blindly support individuals simply because we have an interest or favour on them irrespective of their obvious shortfalls.

[miguna]

I agree with you on everything "substantive" you have said Abdulmote. Now tell us what you want the ODM to do? What do you want us to do also? Tell us...that way, we know where the rain begun beating us, as they say. And just our of curiosity, how do you know that the Kenyans that supported ODM during the referendum campaign feel "betrayed" by them and not by Kibaki? Just curious.

-Miguna-

[aeichener]

abdulmote said:

Never again should we blindly support individuals simply because we have an interest or favour on them irrespective of their obvious shortfalls.

Well said, Abdulmote. Bigmanism is indeed one principal vice among Kenyan voters. Seems to be deeply ingrained, on both sides.

Alexander

[adongo12345]

The so-called "death" or "unraveling" of the ODM are wild exaggerations at best and wishful thinking from the likes of Mutuma Mathiu.

There are many things I would want the ODM to do better. Like Abdulmote I see no value in pursuing this Kibaki meeting and I expressed my views about that elsewhere. I think it was a good PR move at first and a sign that the ODM was not some juvenile reckless group drunk with the support they have from Kenyans. Once Kibaki goofed like he did by ignoring the ODM I think they should have moved to other strategies and I am sure there are many things in the works. Kibaki is going to come begging for help from these guys. He has no choice.

In the big picture the ODM is going to stick together. This is really going to surprise the Kamales and Mutuma Mathiu might end loosing those three cows.

There is no crystal ball needed to for see that the ODM will hang together and remove the Kibaki crooks from power. One has to look at the history of the nation in the last half a dozen years.

How did the Rainbow group stick together when Moi tried every trick in the book to dismantle them. The masses held them together. Actually the original Rainbow before they teamed up with NAK to form Narc had an amazing relationship with Kenyans. People used to line up roads shouting at them not be scared. "We are behind you" folks would scream at them when Moi was breathing fire and brimstone, ordering Kalonzo to rejoin Kanu. People like Saitoti stayed with the Rainbow because they could see and feel the power of the people around them.

What happened with the Rainbow is going to be nothing compared to what we are going to see when the ODM hits the road to give Kibaki his just deserts. Kenyans are furious with the crooks running the Kibaki government. They know this is a government they elected and they know they have been lied to. When they see something that could actually replace Kibaki they are going to embrace it with both hands and they will hold it together at all costs.

The people of Kenya are going to be the glue that will hold the ODM. Leaders are going to be scared to death running away from the ODM. In fact the ODM should worry more about all the opportunists who are going to turn to them to get elected.

Raila and Kalonzo are going to be fine. I suspect Ruto might want the PM's job considering the Rift Valley vote which they will bring to the table. The idea of Moi sponsoring Ruto or Uhuru to fight Raila is silly. They know they will loose and actually get whoever inherits the Kibaki mantle a free ride. Moi is surprising me in terms of his political instincts. Look what he did with the referendum issue. He is the one who sealed the Banana fate in Rift Valley when he publicly went orange.

There are going to be many twists and turns before the polls, but those betting on ODM meltdown are just plain bad gamblers.

In fact the panic by MPs from Central Province is because they realize Narc is officially dead now. After all these years fighting to get rid of the LDP, now they realize without the LDP Narc is kaput. Kombo is going to run with the little piece of Ford K he still hangs on to and use it to bargain for some alliance may be with ODM once his ridiculous hope of being the NAK presidential candidate becomes official fiction. The DP will be left holding a shell called "Narc" and too scared to call themselves DP because nobody can stand them. The reason some MPs want to stick with the DP is because they need something to bargain with once the hammer falls.

The ODM will be fine and in the next little while they are going to make mistakes as they find their way and take positions for the battle ahead which is to remove the Kibakites from power.

Adongo

[adongo12345]

By the way the politics of the ODM is another story altogether, but I think finally through the ODM Kenyans are going to find away to reconcile the past with the future they desire. After putting up with Kibaki for 5 years Kenyans may be in a very forgiving mood if Moi and his people don't try pushing too hard. I am personally very eager for that discussion.

Adongo

[kamalet]

Why are people not appreciating the intervention by Abdulmote?

To the ODM believers, blind loyalty can be a bit foolish especially when you start losing sight of reality. Secondly, there have been moves by ODM that actually threaten its existence, and one cannot wish away those issues.

One thing that is clear is that there will be overt moves to dismantle the group by those that feel threatened by it. What we will probably see are moves described as 'national interest' and 'in keeping with the wishes of Kenyans' by individuals that see opportunity to capitalise on the present situation. Others will be driven by individual greed including political survival to want to make deals.

Because ODM transformed itself to a power hunting machine as opposed to a machine that would lead Kenyans to a new constitution, the dangers become greaterfor them to stick together. ODM led the country to reject a draft that was deemed unpopular by Kenyans, but I still see them struggling to ride on that goodwill.

ODM should and must stay as a vehicle that helps Kenya get a new constitution. It should not start talking about election plans for 2007 and how to unseat Kibaki. Kenyans already have their plans of how to get rid of him, they want a new constitution!!!

Perhaps as a start, internal healing within ODM should be a priority. When Coast leaders cry foul, then this needs to be looked at so that the crucial support the leaders gave to the cause is not lost. Secondly, there is an important need to establish the actual motives of each of the groups in the rejection of the draft. Were all those in ODM rejecting the draft because it was bad or were there people with other scores to settle, vested interests in a rejected draft etc. Without establishing a common purpose once the referendum was rejected is bound to lead the disintegration.

Finally, is it realistic to imagine that KANU would go into an election as ODM, especially after the comments by Moi that KANU should not change its identity?

[job]

Abdulmote,

You raise some genuine concerns, regarding percieved malaise on ODM however try to factor in the prevailing circumstances that Emperor Kibaki has decreed upon the nation;
a ban on all ODM rallies, hence the curtailment of freedom of association between the ODM leadership and their supporters, the unilateral proroguing of parliament hence a stall on any legislative deliberations, a mischievious attempt to "steal" the identity of KANU, & ODM, by ethnic antagonism, & now attempts at intimidating the ODM leaders by death/security threats

If ODM ignores a meeting with Kibaki & yet goes ahead to call for the pending, Provincial-thanksgiving-Katiba- rallies,..(to chart a way out of the law review mess)....you can bet there will be masses thronging in a show of solidarity and in anticipation for a roadmap.

This will present a perfect opportunity for the loser- Banana government to HIT BACK , detain, maim, kill and arrest people........and tarnish the ODM name,...possibly to portray it as a reckless and violence-prone movement.

Your dissapointment should therefore be directed appropriately to its true origin,...the "Lord of Muthaiga and State House" & his cronies.

Kenyans may be dissapointed but they're focused on their next course of action,...they gave a trial dose during the referendum. Wait for the loading/bolus dose during the next elections and you shall simply realize that Kenya is not the same anymore.

Lets remember that; An optimist sees an opportunity in every calamity, a pessimist sees a calamity in every opportunity.

ODM is an optimistic movement despite all odds portrayed by Banana apologists,....they (ODM) will sieze the opportunity and dissapoint some prophets of doom.

ODM wants an all inclusive Katiba negotiation without discrimination,......Kibaki on the other hand is playing pretend games,.....even toying with such crazy and outrageous ideas as appointing yet another Banana "expert" team (meaning another set of job seeking cronies & bootlicking experts) from among his losing team,....and excluding the winning ODM team.

Persistent blame on the ODM without FEASIBLE & PRACTICAL alternatives may become suspect. Are some people trying to push the ODM into a rushed & irrational revolution here or what? It may not just happen like that folks. But I do understand Abdulmotes frustration, it may be more than just the Katiba but a radical socio-political overhaul. Just thinking.

Kamale,

Is your offer of advice to ODM & focus on it's internal affairs genuine?

Thanks for the charitable goodwill/advice but since charity begins at home, can you also articulate some words of wisdom to Emperor Kibaki to watch his tongue this time, & ......also shed some light on this fake uprising among the disgruntled Central Kenya MPs....in an effort to remove the log off "Banana's" eye before reaching out for the speck in "Orange's" eye.

When you say ODM is a power hunting machine,...you are not wrong. ODM is a multi-purpose outfit tasked with many roles including kicking Kibaki into the political dustbin, and delivering a people favoured Katiba. That of course means seeking power in the process,...Is there any surprise.

Quoting you "ODM should and must stay as a vehicle that helps Kenya get a new Constitution"...rather than seek power.

Well, ...thanks for such wishful thinking. "Sukuma Wiki will be eaten with Ugali and not alone", It's Katiba in, Kibaki out....a 2 in 1 deal......whoever delivers it,...but at least we've confirmed Kibaki couldn't deliver it alone as he was led to believe.

If you think otherwise,.... that's fine, we'll leave it to the court of public opinion & the next elections.

Worrying about Coast ODM leaders crying foul & ignoring the Central Banana leaders crying foul is foul in itself. Coast residents are dying of famine under the watch of Kibaki & his mediocre Banana masters of platitudes. Say something at least about the management of this crisis.

Lastly, did you not miss the point again. To quote you [i]" Is it realistic to imagine that KANU will go into an election as ODM after comments by Moi that KANU should stick to its identity"[/i]

Who was Moi addressing? Was he not addressing the thieves that were stealing (with the aid of the Registrar) KANU's identity (name, and symbols)...Is there anything worth spinning here really, unless all you see now is ODM.

unedited.

Job.

[kamalet]

Job,

Is kamalet genuine in his advice???

It is only an online forum....not even sure the top-dogs in ODM get to see the nonesense we post out here.

In this respect, I was thinking aloud in a "if you asked me..." kind of way. You should not take some of these things too seriously!!!

[abdulmote]

Gentlemen,

Thank you all for your wise responses. They have been enlightening to me.

I found some of Daktari's remarks interesting: An optimist sees an opportunity in every calamity, a pessimist sees a calamity in every opportunity. This led me to ask myself whether the ODM's behaviour as reflected in its acts are indeed the characteristics of an optimistic body as he has alluded to.

One thing that is undeniable about ODM is that as a body of politics, its biggest and in fact unique quality so far as can be seen, lies in its endeavour to fight for the creation of the Constitution as popularly desired. Apart from that, every other possible positive or "optimistic" attribute that one may wish seems to fall flat on its fizz, just like some beer in a glass that has been poured weeks before! I wish I could think otherwise about the whole movement but I can only wish and if prolonged, can only amount into self deception, something which is never to my liking.

In saying that, perhaps I should point out that ODM did not as a matter of fact, come about specifically and deliberately as its name tries to suggest, a "democratic movement"! Indeed those who make the composition of ODM did not just wake up one day, or even spent some time thinking that perhaps LDP and KANU amongst others, should come together once again, and recreate the coalition that once was in order that they may be able to reclaim the people's lost democratic rights from Kibaki's government just as we are being led to believe. No, I don't think that was indeed the case. Of course you may choose to believe otherwise but that is your own choice and you are free to do so.

Rather I must submit, that ODM is a movement that came about with the sole purpose of fighting against the "Wako's Mongrel" as popularly desired, but certainly with various and differing objectives behind their efforts!

And so? Does it matter what their individual aims were different as long as...you ask?

Of course I say it does. Question: How better do you consider the composition of ODM to be, in comparison to the NARC's prior to 2002 general election against Moi's KANU? Would you say it is much better or perhaps less so?

Please do bear in mind that I have already forgotten how "optimistic" all Kenyans were when almost the whole nation appeared to be behind NARC! Such was everyone's optimism that for once we began to imagine that Kenya is going to become one of the very few corruption-free nations of Africa! We began to think that the economy is soon going to be on its ever wished-for tracks at last. Without repeating all those lost hopes, Kenyans were once to be said to be the "most optimistic people" in the whole wide world at the time! And where did all that go?

But you see, it is easy for us to vigorously focus on only one man as our scapegoat for our failure and miseries whilst turning a blind eye to our own failures. Kibaki appears to provide many with so much to criticise about him, (thank God for his incompetence’s) that at times we may easily find ourselves entirely blinded by our enthusiasm in that regard. But surely gentlemen, should he be the only focus of our sober criticisms?

Again I must emphasis in my argument that here I am not trying to exonerate Kibaki, but far from it! In fact and in answer to miguna, I should once again re-assert that Kibaki is one person I find myself almost lost for words to describe his evilness, hypocrisy and failure he has imposed upon our good nation! Indeed I do find Kibaki to be one person who has contributed immensely to the political "calamities" Kenyans find themselves in at the moment. But that is not to say in principle this situation exonerates the rest of us and specifically the ODM from some of those failures which we now experience! In a nutshell, that "blaming game" does not have to be restricted and confined (in order to make sense) to only one individual and one side, but must include all who may and can be perceived as the culprits no matter where they belong that we may learn from our persistence mistakes!

Without going so much into lengthy details, (this can be a never ending story as is the case), just check some of the following issues and tell me if you are satisfied with the ODM's handling of the same:

1. Pre- Referendum; We all knew that and in fact were very "optimistic" that the Wako's Draft would not sail through, that Kenyans would reject it, which of course they did. The resulting scenario as expected would have been to go back to the negotiating table in order to re-launch the same initiative, to acceptable and popular standards next time round. Other than that, very little achievement were in fact to be gained as we have already confirmed. The costs of that exercise were enormous, and in fact we had known that Kenya would not be able to afford another go in a similar fashion should that be desirable.

But what we did do? Under the leadership of ODM, Kenyans were convinced that going all the way through with the Referendum was the right move irrespective of the costs! It was as if the expected win was meant to lead us to an automatic and irreversible change that would have entrenched our gains against Kibaki. What a foresight indeed!

Did that happen to be the case? I say no! Can anyone if at all suggest that the Orange win has ushered in a new democratic era and in fact is assuring us of the new Constitution as popularly desired perhaps soon in the future? Are we honestly, soberly and categorically convinced that the win so gained is indeed firmly strengthened so as to provide us with what we want? On an objective evaluation of the happenings on the ground, can we surely say that the ODM has the Ace cards against Kibaki? Tell me that I may know!

Then why did we do that? Why did we have to press on with the fight we very well knew was not going to take us anywhere but square one despite the costs already known? Can somebody tell me?

But then, is it not a fact that if anything, the win was only desired by ODM that it may provide them with the political mileage and indeed perhaps an undefined platform for their own individual agendas, i.e, election 2007 as can be seen by their current status and loss of cohesive direction? Is it not a fact that the ODM has been rendered absolutely impotent by Kibaki and his team, simply by having their 'thanks-giving' parties unconstitutionally and illegally banned without any challenge or fight, legal or otherwise whatsoever? What is the purpose behind such a passive response if I may ask? Should acts of diplomacy and compromise be a condition of behaviour confined only to one side of the equation? Is this not the kind of behaviour that has led to the making and entrenchment of dictators the world over? Why treat the delinquent, destructive and reckless child with goodies and entertainment packs simply because one does not want to be seen to be firm and so classified as "reckless"?!! That does not make sense to me at all. Reckless???

On the other hand, is it not Kibaki who is "reckless" in the first place and the ODM seems to be saying that what he is actually doing is ok and must be handled with velvet gloves that we not be seen as "reckless"?

One other thing. The ODM does not appear to be a well structured and definable party that has in its place an ideally structured and purposeful machinery. Kilonzo at one time appeared to be its active mouth piece. Nowadays, one can almost feel the clear segments composing of its leadership. Perhaps this was to be expected considering its composition and purpose of unity. But are we doing ourselves any favour by imagining that ODM is actually and indeed is what it should be? Huh? Honestly? Just leave that aside for now.

If ODM is proclaiming itself to be the movement which is indebted and 'mandated' as it were by the masses to fight for the Constitutional making as desired, then how come up until today, it does not have a recognised and declared body which would have been formulated in an acceptable manner (and I am not going to suggest how that is), with the sole purpose of representing that mentioned mandate? Why does it appear to be waiting, almost indefinitely for Mwai wa Kibaki to invite them for that meeting which they were so yearning for, like kids being called to collect their Christmas presents? For God's sake, they did not even know before hand who was going to be in that 'delegation' or not!

And the Agenda? Was that left to Kibaki as well to decide?

2. It is almost two months gone by since the public's rejection of Wako's poop! By now, the ODM should be in a clear position to have compiled and summarised what they think the public actually wants for the purpose of agitating for the same in the reviewed Draft was there to be one. Yet nothing of the sort has been mentioned. If you ask me, I still cannot tell what that is supposed to be! Negotiate?

How about engaging the public by highlighting what the public has declared through its democratic decision? How about stating what the people have already stated clearly and are keenly waiting for? Waiting for Kibaki to do that after all that betrayal? ODM representing us? Pathetic!

But what is even more scary my dear brothers, is that Kibaki appears to be busy formulating and perhaps scheming another trick for the public's consumption, while ODM is deeply in slumber! Yes, the roles appear to have changed! In today’s Nation, Kibaki has clearly stated that he is in the process of getting us the "Constitution that we want"! In fact he goes on to say that his Government is ‘very strong’ and should not be competed against just like that! That is scary my friends.

What we may not know at this stage is what the heck that "Constitution we want" actually is. What we do know is what Constitution he wants! But just as I have stated earlier, it is even more worrying this time in that the public is not in a position to be able to cohesively and collectively say no to Kibaki's document should that be the natural response to it. There won't be any referendum this time. No one is going to be asked Yes or No, Oranges or Bananas? It is certainly just a fallacy that the public will reject the Constitution if it does not like it. How if, I ask??

Or are you telling me all will be alright with Orange? That ODM is there to ensure we will get what we want? Don't you rather feel as if we are the underdogs who should not have been? What is the ODM's direction I ask?

Miguna, I do not proclaim to have the monopoly of ideas or the so called "Feasible and Practical alternatives" to suggest to the ODM. Indeed I hardly feel it is for me to do just that. That is in my opinion entirely their responsibilities being in the position they are in right now.

But in saying that, I do know that it is my responsibility to criticise where I can see something that needs to be criticised fairly so. And I also do think it is your responsibility, and in fact everyone's responsibility to do the same, neutrally and objectively so, that in the end, a clear and desirable change may be realised.

On the other hand, keeping silent or simply endorsing everything that the ODM leadership undertakes is not at all prudent on anybody's part. Least of all by us, who spend our considerable time and effort in righting what we tend to think about in this wonderful and valuable site!

[aeichener]

abdulmote said:

One thing that is undeniable about ODM is that as a body of politics,

One thing that is undeniable about ODM is that it is not a body of politics, so far; as I have explained before.
It might evolve into one, and that is the difficult part.

It is as you said above: "that ODM is a movement that came about with the sole purpose of fighting against the "Wako's Mongrel" as popularly desired, but certainly with various and differing objectives behind their efforts!"

Alexander

[job]

Abdulmote,

The remark you called interesting, Quote " An optimist sees an opportunity in every calamity, a pessimist sees a calamity in every opportunity" is actually a philosophical phrase I personally hold with esteem. Whenever I slide, trip or fall, I only hope for the best but don't jump in concluding that I'm grounded.

Anyone who sees no hope, ....often chooses reckless, carefree, and dangerous options, ...since such options do little infact, to change the overall outcome of their positions,..... in their view.

Thus, whenever you notice an attitude of cautious, calm, careful, calculated and purposeful moves, in anyone,...then you may get the sense of seeing a hopeful optimist. One who expects a favourable outcome.

This optimism per-se, must be managed objectively in a sustained fashion, without unnecessary over-excitement, emotional anxiety or illusions of grandiosity. When you win a battle and immediately embark on excessive celebration to the point of breaking the law or daring the government,..then it may suggest total loss of objectivity.

Infact a friend recently suggested that the ban on ODM rallies was indeed a blessing in disguise for the ODM itself,.....helping to keep their victory lap checked, within levels allowing for focused vision in the run up to the next polls.

Views differ, but in my perspective, optimiODM has chosen the optimistic path. They have not defied the government ban on rallies, ....they have not mobilized masses to the streets, ....they have not stormed State House,...and yet all they have sought is consultative dialogue with none other than the referendum losers WHILE MAINTAINING PRESSURE on the government to jump-start the Katiba negotiations.

ODM has forwarded suggestions ( immediate recalling of Parliament,..... legislating rules to legitimize the review process,....... constitution of a constituent assembly,......planning for a Katiba referendum prior to or at the time of the next elections,........et al) and are calling for an all-inclusive process,..even seeking to meet with the President himself. If that's not responsible and objective, then what is it?

If ODM adopts a reckless attitude, that would infact be a very scary development because it would suggest that they have adopted the pessimistic view of doomsayers. They have a lot to loose and will not do that.

ODM has displayed a lot of caution, choosing to work within the law, despite open provocation, public pressure and general anxiety caused by Kibaki's government. That is a hallmark of seeing hope ahead, in just a matter of time,......make no mistake about that.

Twin issues need to be tackled simultaneously, delivering a peoples Katiba and the all-important political "touch-down" of kicking the dissapointing Kibaki out of power.

On the political act, ODM has not disappointed the public and their supporters,..they have declared their intention to face Kibaki in the next election,.....they have displayed a sense of unity despite relentless government machinations to divide them,...they have publicly shunned the old practice of hand picking presidential nominees, to nurture competitive democracy,[/u].......all in preparation for a strong, united and democratically mandated front to challenge Kibaki.

ODM has retained KANU and LDP as independent parties, hence promoting the tenet of pluralism (multi-party democracy),....yet publicly declaring to front a single Presidential candidate at the next polls, allaying any public anxiety that they'll disintegrate.

That's optimism. That's what I'm talking about!

On the contrary what has the government done since their humiliating referendum defeat. Just a little more of the same stupidity;

1) Ban all ODM rallies by Kibaki's decree.
2) Prorogue Parliament to stall any further Katiba debate.
3) Isolate ODM leaders in Narc, from 7 of Kenya's 8 provinces out of the cabinet.
4) Constutute the most tribalized (GEMA-NIZED) Cabinet & PS's in Kenya's entire history.
5) Fire innocent civil servants on the basis of their tribes & replace them with sycophants.
6) Continue the verbal abuse of foreign diplomats.
7) Instruct the Registrar to divide KANU and ODM.
8) Hire thugs to steal KANU's registration, name, & symbols in shameless display of "ukora"
9) Sneak pro-government thieves to "register" a fake ODM
10) Send another set of government "Wakora" to threaten lives of Raila & other ODM leaders.
11) Slow down the supply of relief food to Ukambani, Coast & other ODM environs.
12) Abate & cover the murder of a Policeman trying to uncover a drug racket in Mombasa Port.
13) Continue the plunder & looting of Kenya's Exchequer as if tomorrow will never come.
14) Grossly mismanage & delay response to a national famine calamity.

That's what's called recklessness! That's the action of one who understands that their destiny is already sealed. That's action from a suicidal and depressed mind. That's precisely a depiction of a losers mindset. But how far will they cut and run from this quagmire?

Abdulmote, ODM understands that Kibaki may want to adopt the "we shall all loose attitude" and spoil for ODM and by extension, the public, in this political fiasco. ODM must adopt a cautious but objective approach, and as far as I'm concerned, they are on the right track. It's about Katiba, but it doesn't end there, Kibaki must go before many can ng'orota in their sleep!

unedited.

Job.

[miguna]

Job:

Yur excellent post speaks for lots of ordinary Kenyans like me. Thanks.

In political "discourse" - whether it is in debates or actual political activity - we recognize a "winning formula" when the opponent begins to complain; choosing to offer us unsolicited advice, etc. The way I see it, ODM has completely ruined Kibaki's game plan - as you have correctly analysed. Kibaki thought that ODM leaders would "meet" his recklessness with recklessness. He deluded himself into thinking that if he unlawfully banned ODM rallies (and I know there are those who still believe that Kenyans require LICENSES to organize themselves), then ODM would have gone ahead and simply repeated the MAGEUZI mistakes. Remember Mageuzi and Orengo? Well, it took the goons just a few weeks to bludgeon the "opposition activists" into mice-meat. This was the plan with ODM. Beat, brutalize, detain, jail, imprison, kill, disorganize and scatter ODM as soon as the rallies started.

ODM leadership has been much wiser than the previous oppositionists. They correctly realized that proper leadership demanded more than making loud noises, attending rallies and proclaiming each and every move from the mountain top. The enemy of the Kenyan people love it when we "warn" them of our future plans. That explaints their disappointment and frustrations.

Is it not curious that rather than celebrate ODM purported "disorganization," "disunity" and alleged "amorphous existence", the enemy is COMPLAINING. This is wonderful news for those knowledgeable in political strategy.

Malcom X once stated that whenever your enemy complains about something you are doing, then you must know that you are on the right path. If the enemy suggests that it is safer to go North; turn sharply and go South! And whenever your enemy cheers you on, be very suspicious of what you are doing. That is the test. ODM has passed it with flying colours.

BTW: any analyst would know how to read the ODM "peace overtures." Do I need to say more? I don't think so.

By no means are we saying that ODM or its leadership are perfect. Nobody/nothing is. That's life, however cruel one thinks it is. Neither are we saying that the struggle ahead is easy. None has ever been. Only those who have never REALLY STRUGGLED would think this way. Did anybody think that the referendum result was all that it should have taken for the looting and despotic cabal to be shoved from their perches. I would be terrified more of those people than I would worry about our sleeping Lt. Keguoya.

We are also not claiming that ODM will remain united or even crystalize into a full-fledged political party. If these happen, then it would be wonderful news and a gift to the Kenyan people. However, even if ODM does not do anything spectacular from now on, the batton should be picked up by others. There is no one person or group that was ordained to lead the ongoing struggle. So, those who are unhappy should either join groups they feel happy with, start their own groups or just cede their spaces for those willing to be involved even in making mistakes. That's how democracy works. We learn through our mistakes. The world would be a boring place if everything was executed like in the "star war movies" This is REALITY.

Job, you are right - optism is what must drive us. I have stated elsewhere (in a 1994 book/title]) that "without hope, we are all dead." It is hope that makes us wait for the next day and look forward to 2007. If we lose hope, we will become fatalists. If this happens, then we would not have learnt from Kibaki's primitive premordial instincts - that of the suicidal Australian redback spider.....

Let's interrogate ODM positively. Let's avoid the crab mentality of always trying to pull each other down. We can all get out of this deep hole that the looting cabal despotic cabal have dug for Kenyans. We cannot get out safely and in time if we keep on harping about the perceived "mistakes" rather that challenging ODM and offering it constructive means of winning.

I for one is more interested in learning about what others think are the best options or viable means of getting out of the hell hole. Job has done a very good job (good alliteration!) by mapping out the way out. Fatalism, futility and recklessness are not options...for ODM and/or for the majority of Kenyans.

If anyone want to go the Che Guevera way, all we can say is: the Mount Kenya, Abardare and Elgon forests are thinning but the shrubs are still thick and tall enough to hide a regimen. Good luck. As for the rest of us - those who are still hopeful and optimistic - 2007 is ours. Any takers? Let's wait & see...

[unedited]

-Miguna-

[abdulmote]

miguna brother,

May I thank you for your piece. But with the same token, I am saddened with your "reckless" inclusion of every critic of ODM's in the list of "our" enemies, impliedly including me as the "complaining enemy"! It is a pity that you have decided to classify ALL those who may have something to criticise ODM with, be it negatively or positively as you would have wished, as indeed "your enemies". Never for once in my life did I ever imagine what I tend to think of or how I think can at all be interpreted as acts of an "enemy" by any right thinking member of society. Just like many other courageous Kenyans around the globe, I would like to think that I am an equally active participant in the "struggle" for our commonly desired destiny in one way or another without having spent time in the Nyayo Dungeons or indee Kamiti. I certainly do not find it necessary to declare prominently or brag about what that active participation may entail, but suffice it to say that I am considerably pleased with the level of commitment and love for my country in my own conscience, and seek no other qualification or approval from anyone or by anyone in that regard!

Going back to our subject topic, I am not at all amazed at the kind of responses my prompting has stimulated herein, particularly from all those who have done that so far. May I confirm that I share some special personal interest towards digesting and understanding various stances and behaviours of various personalities in our unique Kenyan political scene. To me, the trends I have observed so far provide for highly interesting and fascinating reading, particularly as I try to figure out what makes seemingly ordinary and patriotic Kenyans decide or 'evolve' into openly becoming biased and eventually corrupt and selfish individuals who frequently occupy our public seats and prominent decision-making platforms! I am yet to arrive at fully informed conclusions and understanding on these fascinating subjects and I have to keep on trying.

For the purpose of relevance on my remarks above, I should firstly state that I have by now realised that one can only deliberately choose to remain naíve of thought (which to me only amounts to self deception), when for reasons imagined or feelings assumed, one decides to wholly and unquestioningly trust anything political, especially in Kenya as we know of. It is obvious that after having experienced, seen and observed the trends, it has become clear to me that those who may 'pretend' to be patriotic today, can also very likely choose to become the corrupt tyrannists tomorrow given an opportunity! And such an observation has led me to become highly suspicious, and as you have chosen to percieve me, perhaps a "pessimist" of some sort, as far as our Kenyan politics are concerned! I bear no regrets or confusion about the need to prudently acquire such an important state of mind, it is to me a wise and positive alertness and should be practised by everyone were we to have any hope of securing our better future!

Why do I say one can "pretend" to be a "patriot"?

Well, it is true to say that we one should not be "reckless" in attributing such a negative quality of pretences alongside such a noble undertaking. But at the same time, it is critically important that one should be alert and readily suspicious against the very real possibility of majority of activists, politicians or leaders for that matter who may fit into that category. This necessitates and calls for caution, or is it "pessimism" in your term.

In saying that, this leads me to one of your own observations you made earlier in another thread and I quote: "In his recently published tome, The Great War for Civilization, Robert Fisk - the magnificent British war correspondent - has quoted the brilliant Israeli journalist, Amira Hass of the Ha’aretz newspaper, as saying that “a journalist’s job is to monitor the centres of power.” To Ms. Hass, a journalist’s role goes beyond mere “reporting;” it must include the interrogation, challenge and question of authority, especially those in or close to the “centres of power”..."

Journalists should not just try to be impartial witnesses to history and events. They should not be contented by simply reporting history as it happens; they ought to subject what they are observing to deliberate and relentless challenge. And that is what Namwaya has accomplished in his expose."

I must then admit that I find your stance in this regard completely in contradiction to your own observations above, and with that there can be no extenuating circumstances whether we are in effect here “journalists” or not!

Apart from this, it is interesting for me to note that at least the two of you and with all due respect, you have found it convenient to brush aside all those points that I have raised in my posts in this thread, as if I had said nothing else, with flimsy and simplistic assumptions and attribution of “recklessness” to what I have observed above. Neither of you and no where in your responses, have you bothered to highlight what you think amounted to “recklessness” as made and suggested in my observations. Fact is at no time and nowhere in my posts did I even remotely suggest that the way forward was to mount a revolution “Che Guavara” style (presumably meaning a Guerrilla type resistance to the government), or initiate some form of violence-led resistance to the actual “recklessness” as committed by the Kibakis.

But the alternative is certainly not to remain reactionary to events unfolding in response to Kibaki’s “recklessness”, or simply to be seen half-heartedly pressing for the implementation of the desired reforms for the fear of being seen to be “reckless”. Rather, all I was trying to do was to "question and challenge "the efforts and tactics applied so far by the ODM, whilst the whole nation is waiting for them to take the initiative of leading it to the desired changes, vigorously and enthusiastically so as expected of them!

Further more, it clearly appears to me that the three of you, and again with all due respect, have decided to allocate a lot of ‘unquestioning faith’ and perhaps even exagerated expectations on the movement ODM. To me nothing could be more dangerous and infact “reckless” in effect than such an assumption of attitude. I certainly need not repeat how many times Kenyans as a people have been betrayed and abused time and again by our own ‘soldiers of human rights’ who had been held in high esteem by their followers and supporters only tobetray them few weeks down the line after acquiring their 'targets'. Was I to write a list all those people who fall under this category, with the benefit of hindsight the contents will certainly appear to be heartbreaking to say the least!

How naïve do we then have to remain and maintain ourselves to be, in order that we may eventually realise what we all seem to desire? Why don’t we for once ask ourselves what really appears to be the causes and factors that persistently recreate monsters in our leaders whom we have ourselves helped to acquire those positions of leadership? Why do we seem to be vulnerable to betrayal of trust repeatedly and how can we prevent such a trend from ever taking place again and again?

No my dear brothers, ODM is not necessarily everything to me although I must commend it for the job well done and the brilliant effort just contributed by many for the sake of our good nation. Although with the same token, I must recognise the fact that, in doing that not everyone shared the same and uniquely good and honest intention towards that undertaking. Indeed I have seen it before and I certainly fear that it may happen again, and this is not simply unwarranted “pessimism” but political betrayal is real! In saying that, I maintain that it is only prudent, and infact necessary that we SHOULD ALL readily criticise ODM’s leadership and not just view with unquestioning eyes of approval, on everything they do for the sake of being seen to be a ‘qualifying part’ or “optimistically positive” of the same. The suggested alternative of “joining other groups” where one may “feel happy” if one finds himself frustrated with ODM is certainly absurd and pathetic for want of logical reason and indeed it is a contradiction to democratic principles and ideals we so much encourage and demand for!

On the other hand, the courage to objectively receive criticisms, whether pleasing to our subjective instincts or not, is surely the positive way towards amending our weaknesses and so keep on striving to head towards our desired destiny, and that is to create and enhance positive hope we so much talk about!

Just to cap it up this time; if MX was right in what he had said as you had quoted him in your response above and I quote: “Malcom X once stated that whenever your enemy complains about something you are doing, then you must know that you are on the right path. If the enemy suggests that it is safer to go North; turn sharply and go South! And whenever your enemy cheers you on, be very suspicious of what you are doing.”, and if you are to perceive everyone who criticises your shortfalls as your “enemy” irrespective of whether one actually is or not, then I think you will end up being a confused paranoid who has only one destiny and certainly that can only be self destruction!

[aeichener]

Abdulmote is right.
One should hear the advice and criticism from one's friends. But one - and that is especially true for politicians - should also listen very carefully and attentively to criticism from one's enemies.
Exactly because they are your opponents, they will have a sharp eye and will be on the watch for every mistake of yours; so use their skills to your benefit, and employ your opponents as a "early-warning system", instead of burying your head in the sand.

Alexander

[abdulmote]

"It doesn't mean that I advocate violence, but at the same time, I am not against using violence in self-defense. I don't call it violence when it's self-defense, I call it intelligence." Malcolm X

[miguna]

Abdulmote,

Since you appear to have addressed your entire piece to me directly, I will respond.

No, you are 100% wrong. I have never ever considered you an "enemy." The use of the term "enemy" was in "generic" terms and not specific. The only time one can use it specifically in relation to my brief post is with reference to "the government of president Kibaki." This government is the "enemy" of the Kenyan people. And, of course, all the government goons. If anyone considers himself or herslef that government's "goon," then such a person, as far as I'm concerned, would be an "enemy" to the Kenyan people. I hope that we can all avoid "literal" readings.

Second, the reference to Malcom X was illustrative. I would not want to engage anyone here on the "meanings" or "intended meanings" of any of Malcom X's assertions. I know what he meant and intended to mean. I trust that you do as well. And I'm well aware of how those apply to our situation. Once you [again, generically] fully understand what was "meant", there should be no question why we [again generic] should not turn left when the enemy says right is good. So, there should be no unwarranted debates over these.

I never said ODM should not be criticized. Neither did I ever claim that it was the parnecea of all Kenyans' problems. Please go back to my post. I even urged those who do not view it as anything significant to join other groups, start their own groups or resort to any number of political ventures they deem appropriate. That's how democracy works.

I trust that this short response lifts your concerns. I otherwise stand by all my comments. There is absolutely no contradiction or inconsistency between any of the statemrents I've made. One only needs to read, digest and understand them in their proper contexts. As for those who have decided to misunderstand them [for whatever their "reasons" may be], I'm sorry, no apologies....proceed, as usual.

[unedited]
-Miguna-

[ker7emmo]

Sadly I remain unconvinced that O D M leaders stand for anything different than what Kibaki and his minions stand for. I do not know what Raila thinks of the famine in North Eastern Kenya, or whether Uhuru is distressed by Nairobi's high crime rate.

I don't know how anyone who sits in counsel with a beneficiary of high corruption like Gideon,Musalia or Uhuru can claim to be crusading for Wanjiku. Surely Kenyans must have learned from Kibaki and his cronies at least one lesson, No one who has ever benefitted from a system of government helps overthrow it.

On the other hand,
In a similar fashion to Kamale, I'd advise O D M to meet together more often and to fashion out of the goodwill and inertia they currently enjoy,a political party that is willing to help advance Kenya. The continuous about-turns, public contradictions and mini-battles between O D M luminaries are repellent to public confidence in them. Especially in a country like ours long wearied by the constant excitement of cabinet wrangling.

ODM seem to have a desire in foro interno for an alliance of some sort, but alas they are either lacking in the resources or too distrustful of each other to cede ground or prominence to the new body. The hard work will fall, more than likely to Railla Odinga. It is his allegiance that is most sought after, and perhaps most doubted. If he can tie himself to the ODM mast, and show a respect for the 'democratic' decisions arrived at by his peers, ODM may yet survive.

Consultations may drain time and energy,but they also serve to create a unity and camarederie that will serve well both in an election and in a government. But most of all they will make it harder for dissenters to abandon the project, doubly as they will feel part-owners and in fear of the probable public backlash.

P.S, Moi does not rule the Rift Valley. William Ruto actually gained Moi's respect expressly because he repeatedly refused to kow-tow to Moi.

[johns]

Abdulmote,

The topic header is quite appropriate and i am assuming that your pointers are cautionaries and meant to provide feelers from wellwishers to this amorphous body called ODM. What i find as misplaced from your overall viewpoint is your incessant posturing potrayal of ODM as failure already notwithstanding the time frame at hand.

ODM as you are well aware of is an amorphous body made up of all sort of political outfit which had in them a common bastard to take on in the name of wako draft mongrel. This people formed a unity of purpose and since that objective has been accomplished; one would not expect to find a body reading from the same script wherever different issues come to pass.

I understand your frustration when it comes to clear defined objectives or goals which they ought to be pursuing in terms of converting their referundum victory into a push for something; what that something is i dont know. Given the roadblocks Kibaki managed to put in their way as soon as it was clear that he had been humiliated.

Let us not forget the fact that this movement was for convenience sake and the main challenge which i am sure all leaders within this movement are finding is the reality that a decisive path of action can not be implemented, until such a time that a structured body is in place and this can only be derived by way of consultation and consensus amongst its leaders.

It is also a fact that ODM does not need to obtain approval from Kebaki to jump start way forward process-- but it must keep the drive for change a live at all cost so as not to deflate the affinity for a structured democratic mechanism which all kenyans are longing for. Instead of seeking the devils hand for negotiation, ODM should initialize a systematic mobilization at the grass root level where word can be reaffirmed again that victory at the referundum was just a baby step; that this baby has to be nurtured first before it is set on a path to walking before running.

Abdul,what i see as the biggest obstacle to the transition we all long for is this urge within us-- schooled in the old institution, which reduces constructive engagement as a zero sum game.

[kamalet]

kamalet said:

Finally, is it realistic to imagine that KANU would go into an election as ODM, especially after the comments by Moi that KANU should not change its identity?

Did I speak so soon? Hope not!!!
www.timesnews.co.ke/13jan06/nwsstory/news1.html

www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=34939

[abdulmote]

miguna brother, I pray for peace be upon all of us! I have no doubt that we belong to one and the same 'regiment' if not the battalion when in comes to Kenyan politics, and that is enough a comfort for me. No hard feelings.

Thank you all once again and I do hope that your contributions will help us turn on the light amidst our present darkness as events unfold.

Turning back to our subject contents, I must re-assert my displeasure, just like the many that already have, on Kibaki's latest indicative declaration as reported in yesterday’s news. There he was quoted as in the process of initiating the review as if declaring his legitimate public-given mandate to do so!

Of course by doing that, Kibaki could not have been further from the truth. Fact is just as Nyachae had courageously admitted about the same time, is that Kibaki's government has already forfeited its right and indeed any legitimacy as the initiator and director of the Constitutional review as he would falsely and erroneously proclaim to possess.

But to me the sad reality appears not to be what Kibaki is trying to do or display. By now it should be very clear to every one the world over, that there is nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing that Kibaki can be said to be doing correctly and legitimately so! Rather it is the palpable vacuum of alternative leadership which could have legitimately guided us through the process!

Interestingly, it is becoming quite obvious that as Kenyans who have acquired their long deserved democratic rights of free speech and freedom of expression, we have been very busy right from day one of Kibaki's governance, in criticising his each and every move correctly so or otherwise, without shifting the focus of doing so to our own acts or omissions, acts which in effect may only serve to perpetuate the status quo and so assist him in his evil misdeeds! In saying that and with all due respect, I wish not to deny the existence and results of some remarkable positive efforts by quite a few towards providing Kenyans with an alternative and suitable leadership for our own good in some deliberations. But again, it appears as if all that is happening is more of a reaction to Kibaki's misdeeds, instead of being proactive against his very foreseeable and predictable cóckups together with his corrupt tendencies!

This takes me back the question of ODM; It may sadden some people to now realise that KANU is not going to participate (at least at this stage as declared), in fronting a single presidential candidate on behalf of ODM come election 2007. This may also lead others to cheer at the illusive disintegration of ODM, but the truth is the issue of election 2007 should in itself be completely irrelevant to the matters concerning the long overdue constitutional change as desired! And this is the argument!

How I choose to see it is that the ODM's unity of purpose should have been, categorically so, the centre of amalgamating all the energies available in its cause, primarily and solely for the purpose of enabling our good nation to get what it had for so long and desperately desired!

Which brings me to the point firstly; had that been the actual case as some others have also said, then there would be absolutely no need for any disappointments, or indeed any cheering as far as fronting of the presidential candidates by the interested parties in their individual capacities is concerned.

Secondly, just as brother johns had observed, the ODM should have and could have taken the full initiative of leading the nation all the way through, rather than appear to be waiting for Kibaki (ggrrrrruh!), in the struggle towards achieving the popular objective!

Thirdly, and this is where my alarm bells are violently screaming, is that by leaving Kibaki to continue holding the reigns of guiding us through the constitutional review, and especially after having clearly seen and experienced his ability and capacity of betrayal to all and sundry, ODM is in effect cheaply selling off what many, perhaps including you and I, have paid towards any gains we may have achieved from the Referendum just concluded!

Can you objectively think of any reasons why this is so? There are quite a few!

Are there any chances that ODM CAN STILL DO much better irrespective of their current status? I say absolutely so!

But in order for the ODM to do anything in that direction, ODM MUST categorically SHIFT ITS ATTENTION from matters of the presidential race, (in effect converting the Referendum win for their own individual selfish gains), to that of solely and strictly taking the overdue initiative of effectively guiding the nation towards getting the Constitution it wants, the focus which should have been its primary and sole objective, at least for now!

In saying that and until then, ODM cannot even begin to think what it actually ought to effectively do! And the risks of, together with the motivations for disintegration of the whole movement will certainly become very real and at a very great and humongous costs to the whole nation! And this should give sufficient reasons, correctly so, for the real "enemies" of Kenyans to have a laugh and cheer upon us due to our own generated failure!

But worst of all, the failure we so much dread and quarrel about, would have only been brought about, once again for the umpteenth time; due to sheer greed and selfish interests of some as has always been the case!

ODM must wake UP!

[aeichener]

Very good, Abdulmote, very good. I like your posting and your suggestions.
Practically, you are asking that a new NARC (younger, fresher, mintier) constitute itself out of the impetus that ODM had. If it is possible to maintain the thrust and the volition that the many supporters of ODM had, this could be a good basis. Evidently, only some of the many otherwise totally disparate fellow-travellers can remain, and the cohesiveness of such a new coalition remains to be tested. But I agree with you. The people have shown their will to stand against the government. Now, any astute politician should tell himself:
"There they go... I must hasten to run after them, for I am supposed to be their leader."

The ODM directorate would do well to strengthen and augment its female base; women's concerns have been underrepresented in the referendum battle, and most of the arguments were dishonest or hypocritical.
If ODM can work as a clearing house and channelling agency for grassroots concerns and wishes, instead of the game of post-and-seats-brokerings, it will remain powerful. Otherwise, it will very quickly degrade into just another "it's now our time to eat" pigs-at-the-trough community, as was and is so usual in Kenyan politics.

Alexander