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Post by nereah on Mar 1, 2010 17:41:08 GMT 3
politics in kenya is now all local, and this is whyout of blues, pnu has mutated to pdm with a curious slogan and in what betrays haste for something only a discerning observer of kenyan politics can decipher.why,pray, would pnu and it's kkk appendage be in a hurry to repackage itself when the next general election is dozen of moons away? does kibaki and his allies know something that we don't? could it be to do with mutahi ngunyi's hideous counsel of collapsing the grand coalition government and holding fresh elections for kibaki's last and final term? also not lost to my eye is the concerted rush to update the voters registrar...well for the plebiscite.. did you say? na tukifakari changamoto za ngunyi, mwana kwetu kamalet ukipenda man kama anatu tia pandikizi la moto na hisia zake-- niki mnukuu: the caution by our own man k---who is on record in jukwaa having stating that he is kibaki's political devotee-- must be treated with the attention it deserve.jukwaa's veterans will agree with me that this respected member has an insider view of the happenings in kibaki's political world which he arrogantly espouses if not defends. now, daily nation, which tiskie & co led us in framing the other day, has published some interesting story that heightens the political temperature in the country. it is about ruto,moi and mwai wa kibaki and how to stop agwambo. details here www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/870878/-/wqmb4kz/-/the quote below from the above link curiously lend credence to man k's ominious notice to jukwaa. The Nation established that President Kibaki’s attendance of the function was reached after a series of meetings with Mr Ruto at State House, Nairobi.
“We are enjoying a very good relationship with the President. William (Ruto) has been meeting him at State House regularly,” Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, a close ally of the Agriculture minister, told the Nation.An influential MP, who was at the function, but who requested not to be named, said the two leaders had struck a “secret” political pact.
in another thread by our vintage member, phil, question is aptly asked if kibaki is/has been using ruto to wreck odm something that our roughrider brilliantly tackles elsewhere-- in passing. the siasa moto moto bit of it, if you ask me, is the odm's strategic shift on political engagement. you can tell that odm is now perceptibly sucking up to pnu---- even going as far as endorsing the pnu driven katiba draft and giving up the fight on suspension o f corrupt ministers. kkk driven pdm or the thai party is somehow confident that odm is at its weakest; and lurching on mutahi ngunyi's school of thought, believes the time is ripe to vanquish raila and 'sanitise the country'. they are fascinated by the percieved schism in odm's and counting on ruto as their wild card against agwambo. note that ruto was reportedly invited to the retreat where pdm was launched-- as an observer and that kibaki, who was named as pdm's supremo, has not issued a statement distancing himself from the thai party. also note www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/PDM-might-harm-Kenya-law-review-7641.htmlalso note that annan is not coming to town soon and that the hague trial, going by the recent snafus, may be a long drawn journey.in other words, the uta du posturing is being embraced by pnu as a default culture in kenyan politics to frustrate,annoy and force odm into a walk-out(my hypothesis). but i had warned that kibaki's handlers should be a worried lot if miguna miguna's piece on kibaki ridiculing raila is anything to go by. odm is upto something people.don't ask me what it is but what i can tell for sure is that it will wipe out the panuaish arrogance and kibaki's false sense of superiority--- once and for all. well people, we are in for the most adrenaline pumping phase of kenyan politics. fasten your seat belt..........
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Post by phil on Mar 2, 2010 9:07:13 GMT 3
nereah,
There's talk of an early election, probably immediately following the referendum.
Notwithstanding the transitional clauses in the constitution, do you think that ODM can force an early election in 2011?
It wont be easy, especially given the ever emboldened judases springing up in parliament each passing day. However, it is possible to force such through mass action.
I think events at the ICC this week will impact most on the political establishment in Kenya. That several cabinet ministers are on the famous Waki envelope is no longer a secret. However, what if for instance, one or both of the principals is/are named as amongst one of those bearing the greatest responsibility in the PEV?
You see, all the signs - and here I mean those who were in charge and control of state machinery - point towards nailing someone ranking high up in government. I remember the chest thumping in early 2008. There is even a meeting which took place within the grounds of state house. I cannot ever recall the country have two commanders in chief. Get the drift??
Anyway, let's wait and see.
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Post by mzee on Mar 2, 2010 13:08:43 GMT 3
Phil, I also heard of the rumor but I was told it will all depend on how RAO plays his cards. Funnily enough it’s him the PDMers are watching closely. The PDM gangsters opine that RAO is at his weakest and calling an election would politically terminally injure him They also believe that they must hit the iron while still hot because if they wait for too long the fake unity between the KKK tribal lords might just disappear in smoke. Some of the PDM folk have been told that the overtone window is shifting even though they are yet to accept it. That’s why there is a feeling that quick elections will preempt the complete shift of the named window.
The belief of the architects of this scheme is that they would be hitting two birds with the same stone. One surprising ODM and two forcing a union between the KKK political gangsters. ODM top leadership is known to be fully aware of this fact and have put in motions counter measures that will see it come out on top. In other words the ODM is saying bring it one any time day or night. We will be ready for you.
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Post by nereah on Mar 2, 2010 17:46:38 GMT 3
phil,mzee.
the hague issue could, in my view, go either way. i have a hunch that the gods of the suspected masterminds may continue jarring the minds of the judges and throw out ocampo's bid especially if the amigo doesn't give them what they want.i wont be surprised if the judges say no to ocampo.
the flip side is the worst case scenario where both or one the principals is indicted alongside the other five masterminds.the consequence is anyone's guess. the question is: will america,which holds great sway in un and given that obama chairs the un human rights committee,allow for indictment of both or one of the principal?
what about naming of the masterminds? will it have any consequences? yaap but caution here because it may be a shocker that may trigger a tectonic shift in our body politics.
can the international community allow for a situation that could inflame more passions and toss kenya to the brink considering the reported arms race in rift valley? i think britain, america and eu have invested heavily on kenya's stability and would not risk a situation that could undermine the gains.
if you have been monitoring hague closely and those cases as the bashirs and ellen johnson of liberia(who was my one time neighbour in marietta, georgia,usa), you can tell that hague is after all not impervious to external machinations, especially where shrewd diplomacy is concerned.
i recently read somewhere that kibaki & co have specially recruited a sharp female hand for a diplomatic assignment in un and her brief,i was informed by the knowledgeable source, was/is to lobby for the termination of koffi annan's mandate on kenya. lets not be surprised if that's bear fruit.
i am aware that agwambo's thinktank is upping its game especially on foreign relations front where "vested interest", as we saw in america's wishy-washy responses to 2007 election- supersedes other interests.
i am saying that anti-raila forces are not just seeking to destabilize his political house(odm) but also antagonizing him at the diplomatic plane.but as usual, odm is always a step ahead. lets see how things unravel.
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Post by Horth on Mar 2, 2010 18:08:40 GMT 3
Phil, I seriously doubt the early election rumors as Kibaki loves the power he has too much. As we know, Kibaki doesn’t give a hoot about anybody or anything except himself. I would agree on the early elections being called if there was a clear advantage for Kibaki. If there’s not, forget it, he wouldn’t play ball. See also this article which kaburwo pointed out for us nandi-kaburwo.blogspot.com/2010/03/kibaki-guile-old-political-hand-and.html). It beautifully sums up Kibaki’s character, which I’ve been going on and on about ad nauseam. To understand why I think there will be no snap elections, we must first understand that there are only two things which bring him out of Statehouse with gloves on: 1. A direct threat to his power or to consolidate it. Two examples: the Valentine debacle (threat) and his recent foray into Nakuru with Ruto and Moi (consolidation). 2. A direct threat upon his family. I rule the second one out of contention leaving only the first to deal with. Is there a justifiable reason for Kibaki to call for early elections, in which he would not be entitled to run for president (although I have serious doubts)? This from a man who people know is very risk averse and loves being president? The main question would be; why would he give the presidency up? How will he, Kibaki, gain from this? I don’t see anything at all to convince me Kibaki is ready to willingly let go of the presidency. If anybody does, please post here so we can read it. Maybe the ICC? Even if the ICC bundles half the PNU ministers, in matching orange ;D overalls, to The Hague, this would just be an indirect threat to his power but he wouldn’t give a toss as he would still remain the president. Replacements would “quickly” be found from within the ranks of PMD. Yes, it would be a headache having to choose new ministers but as long as Kibaki is still in charge, so what? He’s still the big cheese so the headaches won’t be his. But what if it is Kibaki who the ICC is after? Do you honestly think Kibaki would break down in tears, say “I’m sorry, the devil made me do it. Let me just call snap elections before I hop onto a KLM flight?”. In this case, I fully support the posting by Nereah about the international community wanting to avoid problems in Kenya. Mzee wrote “ The PDM gangsters opine that RAO is at his weakest and calling an election would politically terminally injure himWho is being terminally injured more here, Kibaki or Raila?
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Post by roughrider on Mar 2, 2010 19:42:15 GMT 3
Guys, here is a curve ball.
To dissolve parliament and call for elections before the passing of a new constitution would be to torpedo the reform process and to invite vicious local and international backlash against Kibaki and his cronies. They will NOT do it.
To instigate general elections immediately after the passing of the new constitution would be tricky. That new constitution, to the extent that I’ve read, does not allow the president such power.
So tell me….
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Post by nereah on Mar 3, 2010 17:34:22 GMT 3
pnu or( is it pdm?) is demanding for amendment of the draft constitution and is now pulling all stops to ensure it carries the day. among the things it seeks is the weakening of the senate to make it inferior to parliament.
and by coincidence, ncck is also mouthing its threat to shoot down the draft at the referendum if some amendments like the right to life and kadhis court are done effected.
were they waiting for odm to declare their stand to chafua? yes, siasa ni moto moto
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Post by shifta on Mar 3, 2010 23:15:03 GMT 3
Wananchi talk about early election is just that, talk, there will be no early election, you can count on that. Why not?? 1 million shillings a month reason!! There is no way any self unrespecting, useless MP is going to agree to give up the known for the unknown. More importantly, we are forgetting the most important person in the kifaki inner circle, Mama Lucy. There is no way she is willing to have her kifaki go thru another campaign cycle and risk getting tossed out. She loves her State house too much. ...you do not steal an election, see your own people ( and i do not mean kenyans) slaughtered and rendered homeless and then just give it up.
.================== The Senate: I hope PNU succeeds..it is useless as it is written into the katiba -- The NCCK has no constituency they can shout all they like, as long as they do not have the political backing of the honchos on their side, ni kelele tu....Kenyans fatally follow the poltical class bigwigs.
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Post by nereah on Mar 8, 2010 14:12:35 GMT 3
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Post by nereah on Mar 8, 2010 14:24:53 GMT 3
jukwaa?
did kibaki consult raila before issuing the travel ban? is raila also affected by the travel ban? should odm ministers defy kibaki's travel ban if the spirit and letter of the national accord was not followed? should raila rescind the travel ban decision if he was not consulted?
can we expect raila's spokesman to countermand this directive and what will it portend to the coalition state at this dicey phase of kenya reformation?
if kibaki did not consult raila as it appears, what,pray,would he and pnu(or pdm) be upto?
i call this, the last stand. it is the defining moment in kenyan history. odm has made concessions almost to the extend of rocking its traditional base.
if the divided odm lost round one in naivasha, will it sell-out in bunge when its down to the wire?
having abandoned the people's quest for parliamentary democracy(for the sake of breaking the reform jinx as my boy ababu namwamba wont to say)will raila suck up to kibaki? will odm allow the kibakinistas to dictate the pace and rule of engagement?
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Post by nereah on Mar 9, 2010 10:55:38 GMT 3
jukwaa? did kibaki consult raila before issuing the travel ban? is raila also affected by the travel ban? should odm ministers defy kibaki's travel ban if the spirit and letter of the national accord was not followed? should raila rescind the travel ban decision if he was not consulted? can we expect raila's spokesman to countermand this directive and what will it portend to the coalition state at this dicey phase of kenya reformation? if kibaki did not consult raila as it appears, what,pray,would he and pnu(or pdm) be upto? i call this, the last stand. it is the defining moment in kenyan history. odm has made concessions almost to the extend of rocking its traditional base. if the divided odm lost round one in naivasha, will it sell-out in bunge when its down to the wire? having abandoned the people's quest for parliamentary democracy(for the sake of breaking the reform jinx as my boy ababu namwamba wont to say)will raila suck up to kibaki? will odm allow the kibakinistas to dictate the pace and rule of engagement? here is what The Standard makes of my apprehensions. www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000005176&cid=4&ttl=Secret%20war%20behind%20Cabinet%20travel%20banand pnu seems emboldened www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000005178&cid=4&more later
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Post by phil on Mar 9, 2010 16:17:43 GMT 3
Job alluded to what the Standard reports on the purported travel ban on ministers.
Miguna has been talking about the power sharing agreement between ODM and PNU. He has advanced credible arguments and while providing excellent interpretation, also made reference to sections of the NARA. Mutula, Mutua and majority of the PNU court jesters have not contradicted Miguna on any single occassion.
The ONUS is on ODM to escalate the cabinet boycott to something else. The options are there. These can be effective in bringing civility and sense into the whole arrangement. They must be careful not to upset the reform program.
BTW: There were rumours Mudavadi would be resigning anytime following the interdiction of officers from his ministry. We ae waiting to see if this will happen. He has not been to parliament today and perhaps is bidding his time because both principals are busy hosting the IGAD heads of state. If he resigns, it will put a lot of pressure on Kibaki, especially with regard to ruto and ongeri. Uhuru Kenyatta's officials were also interdicted. Should he also be on the line to resign?
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Post by nereah on Mar 9, 2010 17:12:25 GMT 3
mudavadi's resignation,as an option, was a subject of discussion in my roundtable.
we emerged with what we call the hurghligham consensus:that he should resign.
i look foward to yet another big score from odm
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Post by nereah on Mar 9, 2010 18:28:59 GMT 3
a member of my roundtable has been kind enough to correct me. the hurghligham consesus was about mudavadi stepping aside until kaca clears his name, not resigning.
thanks doc for the correction. mea culpa
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Post by phil on Mar 9, 2010 18:40:31 GMT 3
a member of my roundtable has been kind enough to correct me. the hurghligham consesus was about mudavadi stepping aside until kaca clears his name, not resigning. thanks doc for the correction. mea culpa That is where the problem is. It is going to be a headache for RAO. How does a cabinet minister legally 'step aside?' It is either you are in cabinet or out of it. I thinkhe will have to resign and hope that Raila will convince Kibaki to reappoint him. It is not that easy. And with the coalition problems playing out, Kibaki will most likely want to politically frustrate ODM. He will take his time to re-appoint Mudavadi. And to rub it in, he may feign consultation with the PM and proceed to appoint William Ruto to act while Mudavadi is out. It is called politics. PS: What/Who is hurlingham round table?
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Post by politicalmaniac on Mar 9, 2010 21:52:42 GMT 3
mudavadi's resignation,as an option, was a subject of discussion in my roundtable. we emerged with what we call the hurghligham consensus:that he should resign. i look foward to yet another big score from odm We cat discuss such a profound move in a vacuum. And lets get a grip on reality. Why should mudamba take such a drastic plunge into the proverbial sword, when whats going on with these allegations are small time compared to the Ongeri, jomo jnr, ruto scandals? I dont see how he resigns yet the GCG is infested with big brown sewer rats some of whom I have mentioned above. Lets get real
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Post by nereah on Mar 16, 2010 15:06:50 GMT 3
updates.
ruto and balala led their supporters in snubbing a crucial odm meeting earlier today at orange hse to among other things discuss the party position on katiba.
only 30 mps attend a crucial meeting chaired by raila at orange hse.
odm now supports the consensus and gives its mps the go-ahead to attend the pnu driven agenda. the official line is that odm does not want to be seen to be blocking reforms.
odm,it seems, is also coming up with a raft of proposed amendments,either for horse trading purposes or to muddle the water more(yet to confirm this last bit)
note: that yesterday's meeting where mps agree for adjournment was partly mobilised by odm chief whip jakoyo midiwo.
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Post by nereah on Mar 16, 2010 15:15:32 GMT 3
on the face of it, its like odm is sucking up to kibaki's pnu with major concessions but a critical examination shows something else. that it is in odm's strategic interest to do what it has confounded its supporters by doing of late: not pulling punches when and where it matters most.
interesting!
but wait a minute. could this be m ere posturing? was this development meant to make odm's rival drop their guard and therefore not make numbers for adjournment in the hse?
could it be that odm has a secret weapon that may vindicate it over the recent missteps?
could it be that odm wants to neuter ruto/balal axis who are bent on inflicting political damage on raila leadership?
lets see how this shapes up in bunge...now
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Post by phil on Mar 16, 2010 15:41:37 GMT 3
on the face of it, its like odm is sucking up to kibaki's pnu with major concessions but a critical examination shows something else. that it is in odm's strategic interest to do what it has confounded its supporters by doing of late: not pulling punches when and where it matters most. interesting! but wait a minute. could this be m ere posturing? was this development meant to make odm's rival drop their guard and therefore not make numbers for adjournment in the hse? could it be that odm has a secret weapon that may vindicate it over the recent missteps? could it be that odm wants to neuter ruto/balal axis who are bent on inflicting political damage on raila leadership? lets see how this shapes up in bunge...now Actually this meeting was called to give consent for the Party Leader to write to the President so as to make changes The matter of supporting consensus was completed last week and the party announced its position. It said it would oppose! So you can understand why Ruto's faction did not attend today's NEC/PG. Ruto, Sambili and Balala have been earmarked for replacement while Mudavadi, Nyagah, Ngilu may be reshuffled to other portfolios. What is not established is who will come in for those who are being shown the door. Sitting in the cabinet is the dream of any backbencher and I hope this time, the Party Leader will use wisdom beyond party politics to making new appointments. Lets wait and see.
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Post by nereah on Mar 16, 2010 16:31:46 GMT 3
Actually this meeting was called to give consent for the Party Leader to write to the President so as to make changes The matter of supporting consensus was completed last week and the party announced its position. It said it would oppose! So you can understand why Ruto's faction did not attend today's NEC/PG. Ruto, Sambili and Balala have been earmarked for replacement while Mudavadi, Nyagah, Ngilu may be reshuffled to other portfolios. What is not established is who will come in for those who are being shown the door. Sitting in the cabinet is the dream of any backbencher and I hope this time, the Party Leader will use wisdom beyond party politics to making new appointments. Lets wait and see. kutuny, yes kutuny, is quoted in a local daily saying they (read anti-raila odm mps) want the[naivasha] retreat to specifically push for the amendment to empower kibaki to constitute and manage the transitional government without reference to raila.in other words, they want hope and are determined to avert the looming sacking of odm rebels or have the last laugh should bunge stripped raila of the powers in the refined coe draft. but this may be a tall order as we all know. my attention was drawn to the ongoing house proceedings, that mps who attended yesterday's retreat have distanced themselves from the headline story in today's the star which sya they will vote for the katiba draft on condition that a clause compensating them for lost earning( in event parliament stand dissolved after katiba is enacted)is inserted in the draft. what baffles me still is why ,despite the agenda of the meeting as phil states above, odm makes a surprise decision to support consensus or mutilation of the coe draft as the wear public sees it. lets wait for miguna miguna's perspective.
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Post by nereah on Nov 14, 2011 16:03:24 GMT 3
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Post by reporter911 on Nov 14, 2011 21:03:54 GMT 3
Birds of the same feathers flock together ;D
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Post by nereah on Nov 28, 2011 11:00:39 GMT 3
what an interesting monday reads from the nairobi media..........from the low end gossip rag that has taken cue from our sadik's disturbing thread on fidel odinga to the business daily's eye popping tap on the equity bank's ceo earnings. then there is my favourite centrist newspaper, the star whose cover story is a blast from jukwaa's archive where our top tier analysts had seen it coming: central (read the kikuyu elites) to back raphael tuju!as is customary, the star should be uploading this juicy political read in about five hours from now here: www.the-star.co.ke/now,if the star reportage is to be believed, the essential house of mumbi as i call them, want a repeat of 2002 where mzee kibaki (a kikuyu) was successfully rallied by kenyan progressives against uhuru kenyatta, a kanu candidate. i have had some wag idly proffer that similar scenario could be played in america where obama a black may be facing off the former pizza tycoon,also a black. kweli, siasa ni moto moto: reference from jukwaa's archive: tuju i can see you through initiated by foresight: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=6100&page=1#82835, subsaharanites's mutai ngunyi: kiboko cha raila ni tuju: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=6139&page=1#83433 okolowaka's: breaking tuju to vie forpresidency: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=5733&page=2#75314also refers: Why the Centre Cannot Hold: The ‘Nyumba’, Raila and the House on the Hill jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=6075source: www.the-star.co.ke/weekend/siasa/47865-why-the-centre-cannot-hold-the-nyumba-raila-and-the-house-on-the-hillKenya: Why a Million Kikuyus May Vote for Railasource: allafrica.com/stories/201111200077.html?page=2
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Post by destiny on Nov 28, 2011 11:57:16 GMT 3
Some Friends of mine from the "industrious" (as I like to call them) Nyumba ya Mumbi have almost conceded that Kenyans are not that daft to re-elect another Kikuyu so soon after Baba Jimmy's exit. It's sad that our siasa is that tribal, but that's part of our cultural DNA for now that's deeply engrained and may take a generation to eradicate. In the meantime, we shall have to live with it! (sorry!)
So these F.O.D (Friends Of Destiny!) who will remain nameless for now have secretly opined to me that unless our very own Obama emerges before the next elections- which is highly unlikely- they will have to vote for a non Kikuyu- anyone but Raila Amolo Odinga!
When I ask why, they say it's not because he's a Luo, but because- wait for this- they simply don'ttrust him! Another word that comes up constantly is that they are highly suspicious of him!
Perhaps peeping Tom pollsters and ODM strategists who frequent Jukwaa need to dig deep on this myth that Raila can't be trusted and the perception that once he assumes office, he will be on a revenge mission from the first second.
So between Raila and Tuju who would Gema vote for? I highly think Tuju as The Star "gossip" politics suggests...unless there's an opinion poll to show me otherwise!
As for your's truly, although I voted for Agwambo in 2007, I wouldn't vote for him again simply because his nusu mkate Govt has been disastrous for the last 5 years to say the least! Too many manenos, too many rallies and what's there for him to show us when most of us are actually worse off?
Time's up for Wazees to saddle their horses and get out of town.... thank you very much!
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Post by nereah on Nov 28, 2011 20:11:01 GMT 3
raila is engaging the gema on three fronts which i find compelling. he has won the heart and minds of the influential elites and elders, the wealthy kikuyus, the njonjos,dr mwangi, sam macharia,stanley githunguris, mungas,njenga karumes while at the same time engaging the intellectuals like dr kithure kindikis.
then there are the youths and ordinary kikuyus he is winning over through a conscious mobilisation through such groups as friends of raila and kiukuyus for change.
now, that is not to say that the coast is clear. there is still a segment of influential, power wielding kikuyus who are pulling all stops to scuttle and frustrate these gains with vicious propaganda and anything that can maintain the status quo. this is the group which according to the star story, convinced tuju to resign his job at the op and run for presidency against raila.
siasa, kweli, ni moto moto
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