Phil et al.,(this post is ongoing - periodically being updated as i steal intermittent minutes from work)
However inaccurate the figures may be - the census captures the general dynamics and trend of the population.Here's a few things to get out of it;
I will start right where Kenyans love to peek at - the issue of tribe (as you know some tribes are cultural, others lingusitically based, and yet others purely political tribes - as per the old power barons who classified them).For instance, they would seperately count the
Luo (wakina James Orengo) and the Suba (wakina Otieno Kajwang') - folks who both speak the same language and practise the same culture - as different entities, yet
lumping a Pokot with a Kipsigis as one Kalenjin unit; and another unit comprising among others, the
Bukusu and Maragoli (as distant as the Moon and Mars - as per one Bukusu anthropologist & friend of mine - full disclosure, former girlfriend).Nevertheless, they say:
1) Kikuyu - 17%
2) Luhya - 14%
3) Kalenjin - 13%
4) Luo (& Suba) - 11%
5) Kamba - 10%
6) Somali - 6%
7) Kisii - 5.7%
8) Miji Kenda - 5%
9) Meru - 4%
10 Turkana - 3% 1) It is obvious that the numerical strength of both the Gikuyu and Luo have diminished by several % points.
2) The effects of the Great Somali Migration into Kenya have been felt like a thunder-bolt. Didn't we complain here in JUKWAA that ineptitude at Foreign Affairs (authors of Foreign Policy on Somalia) is dramatically altering the face of Kenya? Did anyone notice a similar thing happening with the Turkana. I will come to this issue later.[/color]
3) I can hereby predict that in the next 10 to 20 years, the Kalenjin, then Luhya (if these classifications will still exist) would be Kenya's biggest ethnic groups. I will expound with estimated statistical projections later. [/size]
4) The land question, especially in the Kipsigis and Nandi inhabited territories ( Kericho, Narok, Nakuru, Rongai, Kuresoi; and North Rift - Eldoret, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Trans Nzoia) will be even put to extreme test in the coming years. It will continue to drive politics in these areas.1) Declining numerical strength of the Gikuyu and Luo.The relative majority status enjoyed by the Gikuyu is diminishing by a greater percentage ; -3% in the last 10 years & - 6% in the last 20 years.I can attribute that decline (amongst the Gikuyu) to several factors partaining to lower birth rate including (a higher percentage climbing the socio-economic ladder that sires few kids; migration of youth in the birth-giving age bracket to the global diaspora; & prevalence of contraception) with a lesser effect on high mortality from HIV/AIDs etc. However, take note of the exponential rise in recent HIV/AIDS prevalence in Central Province ).As for the
Luo, (& of course I will add the Suba as per my own classification), some of those same factors (for Gikuyu) have contributed to the population decline, however, the single biggest factor is the
super high infant mortality rate, followed by high adult mortality attributed to HIV/AIDS.
There are those who would like to imagine that either the HIV/AIDS epidemic has subsided in Luoland or that it has no effect on population - Nope, you are wrong. It is still an issue to be addressed frontally & yes- it has a very direct effect on population. The Gikuyu will probably come to terms with this reality a little later down the curve as recent HIV/AIDS infection rates indicate.
All in all, the biggest cause for decline in growth rate among the Luo remains the high infant mortality rate.Amongst the Luo, birth rates are still high in the rural areas. However it is accompanied by high infant mortality rates.
It is worth noting that since Kenya started collecting health data, Nyanza's infant mortality rates have remained high and basically unaddressed.You can start by the most basic question. What percentage of neonates and infants (newborns and babies) are immunized in rural Nyanza villages?A glance at national health data indicates clear disparity relative to the national & other regional rates - whereby a child born in rural Nyanza is less likely to receive all the scheduled immunizations and vaccines, than one born in say Nairobi or Central.
This is a disparity that will have to be addressed directly - at policy level. What policies will be implemented to address such disparities? This is not an issue to be 'looked into' in future, it is an issue for now!
I will be expecting answers from Beth Mugo and Peter Nyong'o.Then comes other pretty obvious drivers of the high infant and child morbidity and mortality rates in Luoland. Malaria is still snapping lives of under 5 year olds in Luoland like no business. The Malaria Prevention Program is only marginally effective regarding the more recent (weather related)outbreaks of highland malaria. What about scaling up basic preventive measures in a more sustained and consistent way?
Funding for Malaria Prevention Programs (& its compatriots HIV/AIDS & TB) have been plagued by a bigger man-made disease -
corruption.This corruption is directly trickling down to snap up lives of children that end up being those high infant mortality statistics of Nyanza. What's the gameplan to redress that?
We don't need to go far to explain some of these population trends. Lack of access to clean water has made Typhoid and other water-borne diseases prevalent in Luoland.And guess what?
From the same census data, here's a picture of access to piped water (= clean water) in Kenya:
National Average Kenya - 30%
Nairobi - 76%
Central - 40%
Coast - 46%
Eastern - 29%
Rift Valley - 23%
Nyanza - 8.5% ( you bet!)
Western - 7% ( you bet again!)
Since we now know more than 90% of the population in Nyanza and Western don't have access to piped water; what Marshall Plan for Water Access will the government now make to facilitate a more equitable water access picture?No piped water = no clean water = TYPHOID, SHIGELLOSIS, other variants of SALMONELLOSIS, occasional CHOLERA epidemics, AMOEBIASIS, plus kids walking with a belly filled with an assortment of worms....and that directly translates to those high morbidity and mortality rates.
That's a frank assessment of the situation
mashinani - no jokes fellows.
Do people really know the health ramifications of this lack of piped-water situation in Nyanza and Western?Where is the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and a host of Ministers involved?
In fact Ukambani seems to have more access to
clean water than Nyanza and Western combined.
2. The Great Somali Migration.Let's be real.
There is no need putting a big asterix next to the
Somali numbers because
there is nothing we can do to deport these people - mark my words.
No matter how many times you repeat the census count in Mandera, you will each time notice only one change - yet another increase! They are streaming in and assimilating, not slowly, but fast.
They are here to stay and give birth to more KENYANS.
I can bet you they are all armed with IDs, most with passports as well, and many of their kids are armed with KCPE & KCSE certificates.
Somalis have now surpassed the Maasai, Turkana, Meru, Miji Kenda and even the Kisii, respectively in numbers.
We now have 2.3 million Somalis - half the number of Luos in Kenya. The government must avoid the temptation to try manipulating these numbers. They have to deal with this new reality.
It is their gross incompetence, counter-productive foreign policy on Somalia, lack of regional leadership, corrupt bureaucrats at immigration (passport office & ID issuance), provincial administration (local registration of births & issuance of IDs & security APs) that have all combined to create the phenomenon of the
Great Somali Migration into Kenya.
Let us now accomodate them as our own Somalis and work to stop further illegal influx across the border as a matter of priority.
Remember, Museveni (Ugandan troops) and Meles (Ethiopian troops) are currently stirring the hornet's nest by ratcheting more war cries for further bloodletting in Somalia.
Every Kenyan should therefore be prepared to accomodate even more influx of Somalis into Kenya.
Did you know that the 4th most populated constituency in Kenya is Mandera Central at 417,294 people?A similar phenomenon has transformed Turkana North (yup, bordering Sudan) into Kenya's 10th most populous constituency.
That's the effect of migration on population.
Borders will mean nothing especially in times of war. So let's start appreciating that population dynamics is not only affected by birth and death rates. Migration is the undercard often unsung.Kalenjin and Luhya population explosionThe Kalenjin, specifically the Kipsigis, Nandi & partly Keiyo are the fasted growing segment of Kenya's population. These growth rates are in fact some of the highest in the world.They are closely followed by the other assortment of sub-tribes -
Luhya.If the trend is maintained - where Gikuyus grow at 2.7% while Kalenjin and Luhya grow at 4% - 5% as they are, it would only be a matter of 10- 20 years that the Kalenjin followed by the Luhya would be the two biggest communities in Kenya. The net effect of this trajectory on Kenya's ethnicized politics will be seen.
Coincidentally, the two communities are an assortment of sub-tribes in seperate counties under the new constitution.
It is already obvious that no single tribe can claim absolute or super majority status. Basically, no single tribe accounts for even 20% of the country's population.The bigger picture I see with this scenario is that
politicians already adjusted to courting national issues will be the biggest beneficiaries - as they would tend to draw a broad and more national following.
Theorists still believing in exclusive elite ethnic alliances - where elites agree but grassroots remain antagonized and suspicious (in view of extreme pressures on land) might be faced with this reality sooner than later.
Leaders able to tap support from across board can reap. Somalis alone account for over 2 million. It's just a matter of mobilizing their participation in politics to awaken this sleeping giant. Who would ignore this constituency that's larger than the Kisii?
The Luhya are just shy of Gikuyu numbers. Will they for once turn out and vote to flex their political muscle? Will they again for once, be able to unite as a single voting bloc?
The whole mix presents a very interesting perspective into the future.
The Land QuestionMy prediction is that the new constitution will dramatically affect land ownership in profound ways, many of which will play out at the seat of respective county governments.
How respective county governments and the National Land Commission handle the land issue will have ramifications on many fronts.
No matter what this census result suggests from an ethnic standpoint, intense land pressure may create sub-ethnic tensions that might dictate county politics, eventually spilling into the national arena. Population by Counties - by order of density.Since this is what will determine resource allocations & even constituencies; let's put them in order of density.As you will notice, thanks to the new Katiba,
Kakamega will (should) be the biggest resource recipient outside Nairobi.
Thanks to this Katiba reform, Kakamega and Bungoma will not have to wait until they produce an Imperial President to get these resources to
mashinani.How I wish we had 30% plus going into the grassroots. That should be food for thought.
TOP 10 RESOURCE (& Constituency) EARNERS with POPULATIONS EXCEEDING 800,000 PEOPLE.
1. Nairobi 3,138,369
2. Kakamega 1,660,651
3. Bungoma 1,630,934
4. Kiambu 1,623,282
5. Nakuru 1,603,325
6. Meru 1,356,301
7. Kisii 1,152,282
8. Kilifi 1,109,735
9. Machakos 1,098,584
10. Migori 1,028,579
NEXT TEN (IN TOP 22)
11. Mandera 1,025,756
12. Kitui 1,012,709
13. Kisumu 968,909
14. Homabay 963,794
15. Muranga 942,581
16. Mombasa 939,370
17.Uasin Gishu 894,179
18. Makueni 884,527
19. Turkana 855,399
20. Narok 850,920
21. Siaya 842,304
22. Trans Nzoia 818,757
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