Post by nereah on Dec 10, 2010 16:48:09 GMT 3
as we digest what is happening in ivory coast where african union, ecowas,un and eu have been reduced to bystanders and ivory coast election thief is going mteja on obama, and as we reflect on the latest thinkpiece by our miguna miguna, the economist intelligence unit,is inviting us below to interrogate the so called africa's democracies as they showcases their electoral contests in coming months, beginning with our next-door and obstrusive neighbour. the question is, will this coming elections in 2011 be reduced to the kenyan,zimbabwe and now ivory coast scenerios? read on.....
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
At least 17 Sub-Saharan states are scheduled to hold presidential and/or legislative elections in 2011. Although there will be problems with some of these polls, in general they should be relatively uncontroversial. Most, however, will easily be won by incumbent presidents and their parties.
This does not necessarily reflect electoral manipulation or intimidation of opposition supporters: incumbents tend to have greater access to resources, whether financial or logistical, boosting their campaigns, while in many states opposition parties will be unable to unify sufficiently to mount a credible challenge to incumbent governments.
Nonetheless, the relative paucity of elections in which power is transferred peacefully between parties does tend to suggest that the development of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa still has some way to go. Following is a digest of some of the most important electoral activity in the Sub-Saharan region in 2011, in alphabetical order of the countries involved.
DRC
president laurent during his wedding
The next presidential election has been set for late 2011, although the timetable may well slip into 2012. Whenever it is held, the re-election of the incumbent, Joseph Kabila, is a near certainty. Although he has failed to fulfil his election promises from 2006 to build social and economic infrastructure, create jobs and hold local elections, and there is little mood among the country's electorate to reward him for a job well done, Mr Kabila's potential challengers are weak and too disorganised to defeat his well-funded political machine. In addition, there is a profound crisis within the main opposition party, Mouvement de liberation du Congo, whose president, Jean-Pierre Bemba, is on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes and whose leaders in the Democratic Republic of Congo are fighting each other.
Thus political continuity is expected, although the prospects for political stability are less certain. A significant destabilising factor is that the financial interests of Mr Kabila and his inner circle are assuming a more prominent role in government decision-making, making their decisions increasingly unpredictable.
This is unfortunate for investors, who need regulatory certainty, but also for Congolese who had been hoping that the state would begin to create the conditions conducive to the emergence of a stable middle class. The longer this style of governance goes on, the greater the risk that disgruntled politicians, generals and business interests will seek to overturn Mr Kabila, and the harder it will be for Mr Kabila to bring himself to relinquish power.
Madagascar
rajoelina
There are significant doubts over whether presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in early 2011 as planned by the Haute autorit de la transition (HAT), and--if they do--whether they will have any legitimacy at home or abroad. If the HAT leader, Andry Rajoelina, tries to stand as a candidate, the three main opposition parties are likely to refuse to participate in either the presidential or parliamentary poll, stripping the elections of legitimacy and prolonging the political crisis.
As a result, we tentatively forecast that colleagues and senior military personnel will eventually persuade Mr Rajoelina not to run for the presidency. Given that the HAT apparently continues to have the backing of much of the country, parties allied to it could win a legislative majority, with Mr Rajoelina possibly becoming prime minister. It is also possible, however, that no polls will be held in 2011-12 or that they will be boycotted altogether by the opposition. In either case the political impasse would persist, with serious implications for the country's economic prospects.
Nigeria
Presidential, legislative and state-level elections are due to be held in April 2011, having been put back from January to allow more time for preparations. Despite this delay, it is still doubtful whether there is enough time to overhaul Nigeria's highly flawed electoral roll or implement other much-needed reforms. Nigeria has a poor record for holding free and fair elections, and violence and malpractice is likely to feature once again.
goodluck with obama
The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) has yet to select its candidate. Although the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, would seem to be the obvious choice, he faces a stern challenge, since his candidacy would break an unofficial zoning agreement within the PDP, under which the presidency is supposed to rotate every two terms between politicians from the north and the south. Indeed, it is not inconceivable that the PDP will break apart over the issue.
However, such is the power of the ruling party, and the weakness of the opposition, that even if Mr Jonathan is not chosen, the PDP presidential candidate would still be the favourite to win--provided, that is, that any major splits within the party are avoided. If the opposition can provide a united front, or there are significant divisions in or defections from the ruling party, the PDP will face a more serious challenge at both the presidential and the legislative polls.
If the northern PDP political establishment manages to agree on its own candidate it could feasibly leave the PDP and compete against Mr Jonathan. This would probably mean an extremely close presidential election and, therefore, an increased likelihood of political violence and electoral malpractice from all sides.
Uganda
yuweri
Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 16th could provide the greatest challenge yet to the 25-year hegemony of Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Mr Museveni has dominated the Ugandan political scene for more than two decades, yet the strongest opposition contender, Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change, could oust him at the polls if a number of factors fall into place. Regional pressures, particularly in Buganda, will deprive Mr Museveni of some support, and this will be compounded by a youthful population with little loyalty to the NRM and a populace discontented with the lack of job opportunities.
Moreover, a field of eight presidential candidates, some with significant following, could prevent Mr Museveni from winning 51% of the vote, forcing a run-off, probably against Mr Besigye, who could then unite the opposition behind him in an anti-Museveni vote. However, even if Mr Besigye can increase his share of the vote from the 37% he won in 2006, he would require free and fair elections to defeat Mr Museveni, and the playing field will not be level. The opposition has also dealt itself a blow with the breakdown of the Inter-Party Co‑operation coalition owing to the presidential ambitions of the party leaders. It is likely, therefore, that Mr Museveni will win re-election in February, while the NRM will retain a parliamentary majority.
Zambia
The presidential and parliamentary elections will be closely contested. While the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) will benefit from the advantages of incumbency and its formidable electoral machinery, Michael Sata and the Patriotic Front (PF) are likely to put up a strong challenge; Mr Sata lost the 2008 election narrowly and his popularity has grown as disappointment with the government's performance has increased. Mr Sata is also likely to benefit from his efforts to campaign outside his party's traditional support base (the Copperbelt and Lusaka regions).
If the PF's alliance with the United Party for National Development (UPND) were to collapse, voter turnout could fall: the electorate is disillusioned with the MMD, but it is also disenchanted with the opposition's enduring failure to offer a united front against the ruling party. Should the alliance persist, a victory for Mr Sata and the PF is feasible.
This could have important implications for the MMD, which has faced divisions since the death of its former leader, Levy Mwanawasa, in 2008. If the MMD remains in power, it is likely that unity will just about be maintained: Zambian politicians tend to be driven by career ambitions rather than ideology. If it loses, defections are likely; these could even begin before the election if a defeat for the MMD looks likely.
michael sata right with ex-president chiluba
The political environment is in any case set to change significantly: a referendum is likely in 2012 on changing presidential elections from the current "first-past-the-post" system to one in which the winning candidate would require more than 50% of the vote, involving multiple rounds of voting if necessary. The change--likely to receive strong public support--would weaken the advantages of incumbency, as a fragmented opposition would no longer guarantee victory for the ruling party.
Zimbabwe
There are a number of questionmarks over elections in Zimbabwe--not least whether they will take place in 2011 or 2012. Although both main members of the power-sharing government, Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), have called for fresh parliamentary and presidential polls in 2011, Mr Tsvangirai insists that a constitutional referendum must be held first, which would probably push the poll date back to 2012.
morgan with obama
Holding elections under the existing, much-discredited framework would give Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF a substantial electoral boost. In truth, however, it is highly likely that ZANU-PF will use violence and intimidation--and electoral manipulation--to "win" the ballot whenever it is held. There is speculation that Mr Mugabe will resign shortly afterwards and install his chosen successor as the next president.
However, while international criticism of Zimbabwe's political dispensation has focussed on Mr Mugabe, it is far from clear whether donors and investors will be prepared to adopt a more positive stance towards a new president if ZANU-PF has secured another victory in disputed circumstances. Political tensions and uncertainty are therefore set to rise in the run-up to and aftermath of the poll.
source: economist intelligence unit.
