SOMALI WAR: Where Is The Engine Of Trouble?

[adongo23456]

SOMALI WAR: Where Is The Engine Of Trouble?

By Adongo Ogony

Many of us hear about Al Shabaab the terrorists and Somali the messed up country but we hardly have a clue as to what really is going on. How did Somali get into this mess and why are we engrossed in it? Where will it end?

Despite the chest thumping and furious screams of patriotism I decided to take my detective glasses behind the scenes and find out what the heck was going on. What I gathered is interesting. I am still working on it but this is what I have found out so far.

The current leader of Al Shabaab in its present form is Ahmed Abdi Godane who calls himself the “EMIIR”, a holy position not unlike Ayatollah title close to Kingship or royal entitlement or monarchial rule. In reality he has no such powers.

Ahmed Abdi Godane

Incidentally Godane is from Somaliland where he started his religious crusade got arrested and somehow escaped jail and moved south. Today he is one of the most elusive underworld leaders. He can be anywhere at any one time.

In 1991 as the government of Siad Barre crumbled Somali fell into the hands of several warlords. The north east corner of Somali declared independence and became known as Somaliland. The bulk of Somalia was practically a war zone and General Farrah Aidid and Ali Mahdi Mohamed the two original warlords battled it out and eventually ended up with Mogadishu split into small enclaves each with its team of thugs and warlords running the show and the endless checkpoints. Between 1991 and 1994 chaos and mayhem was the order in Mogadishu culminating in the now infamous “Black Hawk Dawn” incident where 18 US rangers and Delta Force specialists were killed and dragged through the streets of Mogadishu.

By March 1994 all American troops had been evacuated from Somalia leaving behind 20,000 UN peace keeping soldiers. The war for control of Mogadishu went on unabated.

In the battle to take power Aidid armed the CIIR tribe, his tribe and put key Generals from that tribe in control of large sums of money and weapons. Aidid’s right hand man was Hassan Dahir Aweys who today is the most powerful Al Shabaab leader. He lives in his villa in Mogadishu and is said to be known to the TFG and AMISOM forces.

Top Al Shabaab leader Hassan Dahir Aweys

In fact word on the ground is that soon after the Kenya invasion of Somali, Hassan Aweys called tribal elders of his tribe the CIIR to his villa in Mogadishu for a talk on how to deal with Kenya. Hassan met with the GARAAD(Sultan) of the tribe Mr. Habaq Gidir and several elders. Hassan wanted the elders to declare war with Kenya and unleash the youth to take up the battle. The elders told Hassan that Al shabaab has killed 60 members of their tribe and therefore they cannot support them.

Hassan offered to pay $ 20,000.00 per person killed. The elders rejected the offer saying Al Shabaab kills doctors and other medical personnel and school kids and they cannot support such a group. Hassan was furious about that and promised the leader of the GARAAD that he, Hassan Aweys will kill him with this own hands or somebody else will. This was last week so we will wait and see how this turns out.

Back to the evolution of Al Shabaab. As Somalia fell to pieces warlords became a menace to every Somali citizen. People were fed up with them.

By mid 1990s Somalia was awash with warlords. Mogadishu had become a dangerous playground for everybody. The Somali population got fed up with the warlords and were ready to get rid of them. Sheikh Sharif, the present president of Somalia, then an elementary school teacher emerged as an Islamic leader and helped to form the Islamic Courts as a people’s movement to get rid of the warlords.

This marks the first time religion became a factor and a mobilizing force in Somalia. People were revolting against the warlords in the name of Islam. They saw the warlords as corrupt people and criminals doing ungodly things. The introduction of religion in the wars of Somalia would later turn out to be a very dangerous turn.

The Islamic Courts with arms in the hands of ordinary Somalis under the leadership of Sheikh Sharif swept out the warlords from Mogadishu and Sheikh Sharif became a very popular leader particularly in Mogadishu. Sheikh Sharif moved to Mogadishu and took over power of governance in the area he controlled with the Islamic Courts. Of course with the new found religious identity of the new leaders came religious extremism and attempts to introduce Sharia law as a means to save the Somali people from the excesses of the corrupt, rich warlords.

As Mogadishu fell, the TFG already recognized by the UN, the US, Ethiopia, Kenya and other countries was marooned in Baidoa 300 km south of Mogadishu. Under the leadership of Abdullahi Yusuf, the TFG expected to be invited by Sheikh Sharif to take power in Mogadishu.

First TFG President Mr. Abdullahi Yusuf

The expectation was that Sheikh Sharif would invite the TFG to form the government in Mogadishu. That didn’t happen. Instead Sheikh Sharif decided to take power himself and declared himself the president of Somalia. Before long Sheikh Sharif fearing the TFG could destabilize him moved in to throw out the TFG leadership from Baidoa. The TFG then asked Ethiopia for help. Ethiopians sent in the army and tanks and Sheikh Sharif and the Islamic Courts were smashed and thrown out of Mogadishu.

Abdullahi Yusuf the TFG leader then becomes the president of Somali as Sheikh Sharif and his forces fled to Kismayu being chased by the TFG and Ethiopian forces as well as American drones. Sheikh Sharif’s top aides and army personnel were all wiped out and only Sheikh Sharif survived.

For reasons only known to themselves, the Americans decided to save the Sheikh. He was airlifted from his hiding in the outskirts of Kismayu by helicopter and taken to the American Embassy in Nairobi. From there the Sheikh was allowed to move to a foreign country most likely Qatar or Yemen. Shortly after that Sheikh Sharif moved to Eritrea where he set base in Asmara. All the remnants of the Islamic Court soon joined Sheikh Sharif in Asmara including the master warlord Hassan Dahir Aweys.

It was during this period that inside Somalia a more militant Islamic group was emerging. They took the name Al Shabaab meaning youngsters or the youth. They considered Sheikh Sharif a sellout against Islamic interests in Somalia. By this time religion had become a major currency in Somali politics something that was never the case before the rise of the Islamic Courts. The militant group rejected any talk of peace involving foreign countries and denounced Sheikh Sharif.

Interestingly, the man who today is the defacto head of Al Shabaab, Hassan Dahir Aweys was in Asmara with Sheikh Sharif. Later it emerged that even though Aweys was working with Sheikh Sharif he was also working with Al Shabaab inside Somalia.

It was also during this period in the early 2000’s that a new peace initiative emerged with Djibouti as the leader. Soon the Americans, Kenya Ethiopia and UN joined in the effort. A peace conference was called in Djibouti and all key players invited. Sheikh Sharif led his team from Asmara to Djibouti but the other key group TFG under the leadership of Abdullahi Yusuf refused to attend. Sheikh Sharif now seen as a moderate compared to the Al Shabaabs was embraced by the Americans, the UN, Kenya and Djibouti.

Asked to join the peace talks, Sheik Sharif demanded that since the TFG already had 250 M.Ps he must be allowed to also pick 250 M.Ps of his own. He was granted his request despite protests from the TFG.

All of a sudden Somalia had 500 M.Ps and all of them were invited to Djibouti to elect the new president. Abdullahi Yusuf knew he did not have a chance since Sheikh Sharif now had 250 M.Ps of his own and also had some support of the M.Ps in the original 250 M.Ps. In Djibouti Sheikh Sharif was elected by a landslide as the new president of the newly constituted TFG.

Everything was set but Abdullahi Yusuf was furious in Mogadishu and promised never to allow the new group in the country. Abdullahi Yusuf then gets a call from the US Assistant Secretary of State Ms Jendayi Fraser who tells him he has two choices. One is to leave peacefully and go to a country of his choice and the other is to be captured and handed over to the ICC. Abdullahi Yusuf gets the message and goes to Yemen and the path is paved for Sheikh Sharif to come in and establish his new government with 500 M.Ps most of whom are under his control.

President Sheikh Sharif. Is the Chair too big?

In the midst of all the power fixing they forgot about Hassan Dahir Aweys who ended up with nothing and yet he was the real muscle behind Sheikh Sharif. Mr. Aweys then joins Al Shabaab full time and becomes its primary warlord and starts building Al Shabaab into a formidable military force and also becomes the guy looking for money from the Arab States to protect the interests of Islam in Somalia. He got tons of money from several sources and started building business empires and getting into serious organized crime as part and parcel of the Al Shabaab DNA.

In a short order between 2009 and 2011 Al shabaab takes control of the Southern towns. They also take control of Mogadishu fighting it out with AMISOM forces. Al Shabaab gets into piracy, drug trafficking, kidnapping and big money business and stretches its roots to Kenya where with the endemic corruption (everywhere including the police force) and toxic politics Al Shabaab easily settles in normal business ventures and also sets up terror shops and units. In the meantime the TFG remains impotent and holed up in Mogadishu.

All these time, the 500 member parliament is still working; only they do not do much other than shift leaders. Most M.Ps are literally paupers who depend on handouts and favours from the president and the Speaker of the parliament Mr. Sharif Hassan.

Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan

The M.Ps are provided with accommodation in hotels etc. The Speaker, himself a renowned master of corruption moves from country to country asking for money to keep the parliament working. He gets hundreds of millions which they squander among the big leaders.

The M.Ps, handpicked, mostly illiterate and poor today make decisions by votes. They elect the president and so far Sheikh Sharif is their man. The TFG picked the present Prime Minister from New York University where he was a lecturer but real power is with the president and the joke of a parliament they have.

After Kenya launched the invasion President Sheikh Sharif flew to Uganda to confer with Museveni. We don’t know what Museveni said but when the Sheikh came back he made a public statement to the effect that the invasion was unnecessary.

Meanwhile the now 70 year old Hassan Dahir Aweys remains the kingpin of Al Shabaab. He is their money man. He lives in his villa in Mogadishu not far from Sheikh Sharif’s villa. He is known to the AMISOM forces and yet somehow remains free and speaks publicly in support of Al Shabaab.

He is the guy who is now trying to mobilize clans and tribes to support Al Shabaab and kick out the Kenyans. Another close ally of Hassan Aweys is the Speaker of Parliament Mr. Sharif Hassan. Good money is that taking those two guys out (preferably to court for a trial) pretty much finishes off Al Shabaab. But who knows what webs are interwoven in all these.

In my crystal ball here, it seems a real restructuring in Somalia starts with dismantling Al Shabaab, dismantling the present phony parliament and putting an end to the near feudal system that has emerged in the TFG structures and these bogus M.Ps and then taking the TFG to the people of Somalia to elect their own M.Ps from the clans and tribes as well as the Diaspora. Then we can start talking about peace and security in Somalia

Note:

Part two will look into the other Somalia we hardly hear about. The hard working folks, the academics, professionals and formidable asset Somali has in the Diaspora, namely one of the most dynamic and hard working populations out here. Soon come.

Also, you are on your own as far as spelling goes. I don’t have much time. I will do that tomorrow and may be put some pictures here and there.

[roughrider]

Adongo,

Let me offer the ultimate salute, borrowed from a brother of mine who is so corrupted by Americanisms: That is some deep shiet, bruh!

It has been a while since you wrote like this. You researched well. You wrote very well. It is like you were dropped in a complex maze and found your way out. So now we can really say we know how Somali became a mess.

I’d like to comment on certain aspects of your essay:

1. Your crystal ball – that we must dismantle Al Shabaab, send the illiterate MP’s home and remake the Somali state afresh. I agree. This will be good for Kenya and the region. Is the Kenyan operation a step in this direction? Do you believe that there can be an African solution to this problem given the anemic nature of the AU, IGAD etc… The stance of Museveni is interesting in this respect. He is probably afraid that a more assertive Kenya in the region will be a threat to his megalomania. That is why he flew that Somali leader to Kampala as you inform us. It can be put to reason that if Kenya’s mission is successful and leads to a stable and democratic Somalia, eyes will increasingly turn to endless dictatorships like the one in Kampala.

2. Are you familiar with the concept of ‘benign colonization’ as advanced by thinkers such as Kenya’s own Ali Mazrui? This is where a big brother country like Kenya moves into a troubled neighbour and organises them. It is humanitarian, not exploitative. And it can be backed by the UN. Would you agree that Kenya perhaps needs to simply re-colonize Somalia and install an orderly system before handing it over to a a popularly elected government?

3. These warlords that stride across the Somali landscape. From the president downwards. It seems they are the problem. Or a big part of it. But a clear problem seems to be the attempt by regional powers to install their preferred warlords: Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, USA, France etc… There is no doubt in my mind that this is a big part of the problem. Indeed one wonders how the Al Shabaab monster can live in a villa in Mogadishu next to the heart of the TFG without stopping a bullet – that is incredible. But I have a different concern related to Somali culture. Are they amenable to warlordism because they are primarily nomadic pastoralists who traditionally band as tribes and clans in search of pasture? Is it because of radical islam? Conversely, all Somali’s look the same to me – they share a language and a faith – how can clan-ism be so strong a force as to divide them in such a deadly way?

I look forward to the next installment of your tour de force through the labyrinth that is the Somalia question!

[genius]

There is one important party in this Somalia affair. That is the Somali businessmen. These people are based in all countries in the world and are very well connected. I would not be shocked to find that they are the ones who influenced the Kenyan government into this latest operation. You see, these guys want stability so that they can invest their cash into a country they control. They are tired of living in foreign lands and want the luxury that the likes of Njenga Karume have in Kenya, Aliko Dangote and Mike Adenuga have in Nigeria etc.

It costs a Somali millionaire over 50 million shillings to buy a beach plot in Mombasa. They know that thousands of beach plots of similar qualities exist in Somalia's over a thousand kilometers of coastline. Watch out to see Somalia developing a huge tourism product once the Al Shabaab are routed.

These businessmen are the ones who bankrolled Al Shabaab in months past because they thought Al Shabaab, like the Islamic Courts Union before them would bring stability. Of course they soon have realised Al Shabaab are just a bunch of nutjobs who cannot be relied upon. One important point too is that the Somali component of Al Shabaab is tired of fighting. They are ready to talk peace. But the foreign component comprising fanatics from the Middle East and Pakistan want to fight to the death and turn Somalia into another Afghanistan. It is important that Kenya and the TFG reach out to this Somali component of Al Shabaab and isolate the foreign elements.

Mogadishu in the 1960s and 70s was one of Africa's most vibrant cities. A lot of Somalis are keen to reestablish this. They support the Kenyan operation as long as they are sure that Kenya has no designs on that territory beyond removing AL Shabaab. If Kenya can work out a good handover to a credible Somali authority, then this thing will work, otherwise it will just be a continuation of the chaos.

[adongo23456]

RR,

Thanks for the complements. I will take it. You are right, sometimes we forget the roots of Jukwaa. We started as writers, journalists of a different genre and then we got caught up in the world of commenting on xyz, which is fine, but our brand remains going out there digging through stuff and putting pieces together to try making sense out of complicated situations.

I mean sooner or later one gets bored of commenting about Raila and doing a different asignment is a good way to do so.

But my piece was made possible by people who get information right from the ground. It took me three days to put their stories together.

One thing I can add is that Somali people hate Al Shabaab. They are just too scared to take them on. It is like having a bully boy as your neighbour and everytime you are going to school they are waiting for you with a dog to chase you around. You get scared and try to find another route. But if all the neighbours get together and a bigger helpful bully (Kenya in this case) comes along everybody wants to get their hands on the hated bully. That is what could happen to Al Shabaab. If Somali folks get convinced that Al Shabaab is cornered, they are going to tear them up and the Kenyan army will just have to show up and roll the tanks. It is like the Gadhafi situation. Once the bully is on the run, everybody starts to chase them. But any mistake can reverse everything.

The real problem is after Al Shabaab is routed and goes underground, then what? The TFG as currently constituted is dysfunctional and will only lead to more chaos one way or the other. That 500 member parliament is a monster and is hated just as much as Al Shabaab by Somali people. How does that get resolved?

In a way the situation Kenya finds itself in is very much like the situation the US found itself in with Iraq. You break it, it is yours. Once you get in there and "solve" one problem, the nightmare is all yours and you have to solve the whole problem or it is back to square one. That is another story for later. But I will do the part II of that story as I promised and I will take into consideration views expressed by others like my friend genius over there.

And by the way, the other myth being spread out there by our government and the lazy mainstream media is that Al Shabaab is an off shoot of Al Qaeda. That is rubbish. Al Shabaab is a product of the social revolution(s) and political chaos in Somali. A few elements of Al Shabaab may be trying to get money and resources from Al Qaeda and making those contacts but this is a home grown mess that will continue resurfacing unless the underlying issues are resolved. Religion as a political tool has never been the case in Somali, after all they are all Muslims, but now it is. Before it was a matter of clans and tribes battling it out. Now religion is a political force. That changes the equation significantly.

[Daktari wa makazi]

Adongo has conveniently avoided to respond to the 'benign colonization' suggestion put forward by Roughrider. If would be interesting to hear his views.

In my view, colonization as a concept is derogatory, backward, prejudicial and outdated. To colonize others is barbaric, and should not have any place in any governance over any people. It cannot therefore deliver any common good to any region of the league of nations. Such ideas were frothed by the right-wing British and other European when excusing their robbery of wealth of others while scrambling for the new world.

[destiny]

Masterpiece Bwana Adongo.

I often wonder why we can't get such stuff in our Kenyan media. Many folks in Kenya don't have the slightest clue about the Somali situation since our media doesn't care to explain as you have done. And you have done it exceptionally well in simple flowing language that can be understood by all.


What we get in Kenyan press is some shallow reports from AP or Reuters that is very thin on facts and material. Our reporters who are "embedded" with our forces in Somalia only try to imitate guys they see on the big stations like CNN. Sorry to say many even have some fake accents that can't be understood by the person watching the telly.

The fact is our army is in Somalia at the moment and many people are supporting them. A little background as the one you have written is in order to Wanjiku plus the tab we shall pick as taxpayers since war is a costly affair. No one is saying that!

Prezzo has not said much and those concerned only give vague press briefings. I know Kibaki has never given any interview for almost one decade now, but this is the time he should be hopping from one TV and radio station to the next to explain to the people what Adongo has done and much more.

[adongo23456]

Nov 10, 2011 18:54:48 GMT 3 Daktari wa makazi said:

Adongo has conveniently avoided to respond to the 'benign colonization' suggestion put forward by Roughrider. If would be interesting to hear his views.

In my view, colonization as a concept is derogatory, backward, prejudicial and outdated. To colonize others is barbaric, and should not have any place in any governance over any people. It cannot therefore deliver any common good to any region of the league of nations. Such ideas were frothed by the right-wing British and other European when excusing their robbery of wealth of others while scrambling for the new world.

Sadik,

What do you mean conviniently? My views on the war are known. Talking of colonization would be unthinkable to me. My story was based on what people tell me. Some of them read Jukwaa and they kept asking me to talk to them and find out what is going on in Somali. The Somali community in Toronto is fully siezed (that word again) with the war going on now. Many of them think it is the last chance to do something or give up. They want Kenya to suceed but they are fiercely loyal to their country. Any form of occupation will kill all the goodwill Kenya may have. So that is a no go.

What seems to be workable for them is they need the tanks and the heavy weapons to scare the hell out of Al Shabaab and they are ready to take care of them themselves. Al Shabaab is on the run. The communities are refusing to help them. They told me Al Shabaab will not fight but they are bad news with land mines and they are going to mine everywhere in Kismayu.

I told you folks about the meeting Hassan Dahir Aweys, chief Al Shabaab leader, held in Mogadishu. He was reportedly stunned that the GARAAD (Sultan) Mr. Habaq Gidir told him off in front of the elders and rejected the millions of dollars he was offering to compensate the clan members killed by Al Shabaab in the past. That kind of thing would never have happened before. The man would have been killed on the spot for daring to reject the orders of Hassan Aweys.

RR asked how come Mr. Aweys lives in Mogadishu right next to President Sheikh Sharif. They are old comrades. There would be no Sheikh Sharif without Hassan Aweys who was in the army way back from Siad Barre days. Sheikh Sharif was an elementary school teacher with no experience in military operations. In a way Sheikh Sharif still needs the likes of Hassan Aweys, but he would rather they tone it down and lie low.

There is a reason President Sheikh Sharif is lukewarm about the war. Those are his buddies but they are going too far for their own good. I am sure Hassan Aweys is now in hiding. He is the most feared Al Shabaab because he can get you killed any time. If he was killed or arrested there would be an uprising against Al Shabaab because all fear will disappear. Most Somalis I have talked to want him killed. But you know I am not in the business of promoting extra-judicial killings but they want that man dead like yesterday.

The other thing RR raised which I did not respond to is the regional interference in choosing a leader for Somalia. Ethiopia has huge stakes. One of the most respected Somali politicians is Dr. Gandi, the French trained academic who is the leader of a small enclave called Azania but the Ethiopians are afraid of him because he is Ogadeni. Those who know him tell me he can work with the Ethiopians. Museveni is not happy right now. He is sulking in the background but he has a lot at stake too.

It is telling that since the war started no delegation has gone to talk to Museveni even though they know Museveni met President Sheikh Sharif just before Sharif expressed reservations about the war. That angle will have to be handled.

The AMISOM quagmire also has to be handled. That is a whole story by itself. We are dealing with a moving object here and what I am trying to do is use my sources to let us see as much of the whole picture as we can.

[Onyango Oloo]

Adongo:

Brilliant.

An awesome catalyst for critical multi-layered reflections on the Somali condition.

That is what I think of your timely, well-written piece.

Horace Campbell.

Of course you remember him.

Late eighties. You and I and Obanda among others hanging out at the University of Dar es Salaam where Horace then taught, in the footsteps of Dr. Walter Rodney.

In Tanzania, where we sought refuge from Moi's and KANU's repression.

Recall how flabbergasted we were at the political backwardness of the average Tanzanian undergraduate student, shattering to smithereens our romantic fantasies about the presumed Ujamaa Utopia?

Through out the 90's and early to mid 2000's.

Regaling us with his powerful intellect, this Jamaican born Pan Africanist revolutionary scholar activist. Filling auditoriums up at York University; fascinating listeners down at Ryerson University's CKLN 88.1 FM in downtown Toronto.

Well, I met him again earlier this year, in, of all places, Kisumu!

Over a sumptuous meal of ngege and kuon bel, he fascinated the half dozen of us who were having lunch with him next to the hyacinth covered lake of his extensive knowledge of Kiswahili, no doubt acquired during his long sojourn in Mwalimu's Tanzania. Later that evening I was invited to introduce him before he officially launched his latest book-on Obama-at the Kisumu campus of the Catholic University of East Africa.

I am mentioning Horace because he recently penned a brilliant essay for Pambazuka.

Why am I bringing this up on this thread of yours?

Because he connects the dots between Kenya's misadventure in Somalia; the NATO destruction of Libya; the megalomaniacal delusions of Museveni and the role of AFRICOM. He even manages to weave Kibaki's 2007 civilian coup and the ensuing post election violence into his sobering cautionary tale.

Click on the link below for more:

www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/77841

This other piece is fascinating as well:

www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/77837

Onyango Oloo
Nairobi

[b6k]

Very well penned Adongo. Save for your mention of tribe in the blood money section when Somalia's problem is clan based as they are a homogeneous people, this is syndication material. A couple decades of chaos explained in a digestible manner.

OO, the first piece by Horace is equally enlightening. I will tackle the second one later.

Sadly you can't expect people to appreciate the danger that AFRICOM led initiatives pose for the continent when they cheer on the oppressor rather than take note that the bell tolls for all of us...

[roughrider]

Sadik;

You simply do not understand the concepts of malignant, benign and benevolent inter African self-colonization as articulated by eminent Kenyan scholar Prof Ali Mazrui.

‘Mazrui suggested that the large African countries should recolonize or engage in self-colonization in order to put the young and weaker countries on the right path. Benevolent recolonization occurs when the colonized benefits more than the colonizer, while benign recolonization means that both countries receive equal benefits. In malignant recolonization, however, the colonizer benefits more than the colonized.

An example of benevolent recolonization occurred when Tanganyika took over Zanzibar in the 1960s during a period of upheaval in the latter. Tanzania’s brief occupation of Uganda after invading it in 1979 to topple Idi Amin, who had invaded Tanzania in 1978, is an example of benign recolonization. An example of malignant recolonization happened when Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia tried to annex Eritrea after its liberation from Italian colonial rule in 1941.

According to Mazrui, benevolent or benign recolonization will ensure stability in Africa….’

So Sadik, don’t be too scared about flirting these concepts. Nobody is talking about occupation or exploitation. It is simply an act of panafricanist and humanitarian benevolence that we are discussing!

[roughrider]

Nov 11, 2011 8:23:51 GMT 3 b6k said:

Sadly you can't expect people to appreciate the danger that AFRICOM led initiatives pose for the continent when they cheer on the oppressor rather than take note that the bell tolls for all of us...

Sadly, I have not found any evidence of 'AFRICOM-led initiatives' anywhere other than the incoherent ramblings of Horace Campbell on Pambazuka as linked by Onyango Oloo here (Adongo, ignore these)

In fact I only see potential positive engagement for clever leadership. I refuse to take words as evidence.

It is NOT evident in either Libya or Somalia - in the former case an uprising inspired by Egypt and Tunisia met with an implacable dictator. NATO air strikes supported a home-grown rebel movement. In the latter case, a fed up Kenya - horrified by the extent of militant infiltration and flagrant provocation - decided to take the bull by its horns.

www.africom.mil/AboutAFRICOM.asp

[roughrider]

Adongo;

As you continue to reflect on the Somalia Question; the role of Islam remains puzzling. You have noted how warlords commandeered religion and used it to serve their nefarious ends. Similarly, as suggested in such articles (below), religion can be used in the war against Al Shabaab and the quest for a better Somalia. I wonder why Muslims have not come forth more vociferously against Al Shabaab?

www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/a-thousand-fatwas-for-somalias-al-shabaab/article2226272/

[raynathan2001]

Kazi iko wazeee

www.shabelle.net/article.php?id=12423

www.presstv.ir/detail/209527.html

[merlin]

Nov 10, 2011 19:02:36 GMT 3 destiny said:

Masterpiece Bwana Adongo.

I often wonder why we can't get such stuff in our Kenyan media. Many folks in Kenya don't have the slightest clue about the Somali situation since our media doesn't care to explain as you have done. And you have done it exceptionally well in simple flowing language that can be understood by all.

Adongo,

Could you offer your article to The Star?

[wanyee]

Adongo,

This is a very good and informative article.

I thought I might supplement it with the following:

Somalia: the Real Causes of Famine
by Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, July 21, 2011

For the last twenty years, Somalia has been entangled in a "civil war" amidst the destruction of both its rural and urban economies.

The country is now facing widespread famine. According to reports, tens of thousands of people have died from malnutrition in the last few months. The lives of several million people are threatened.

The mainstream media casually attributes the famine to a severe drought without examining the broader causes.

An atmosphere of "lawlessness, gang warfare and anarchy" is also upheld as one of the major causes behind the famine.

But who is behind the lawlessness and armed gangs?

Somalia is categorized as a "failed state", a country without a government.

But how did it become a "failed state"? There is ample evidence of foreign intervention as well as covert support of armed militia groups. Triggering "failed states" is an integral part of US foreign policy. It is part of a military-intelligence agenda.

According to the UN, a situation of famine prevails in southern Bakool and Lower Shabelle, areas in part controlled by Al Shahab, a jihadist militia group affiliated to Al Qaeda.

Both the UN and the Obama administration had accused Al Shahab of imposing "a ban on foreign aid agencies in its territories in 2009". What the reports do not mention, however, is that Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) ("Movement of Striving Youth") is funded by Saudi Arabia and supported covertly by Western intelligence agencies.

The backing of Islamic militia by Western intelligence agencies is part of a broader historical pattern of covert support to Al Qaeda affiliated and jihadist organizations in a number of countries, including, more recently, Libya and Syria.

The broader question is: What outside forces triggered the destruction of the Somali State in the early 1990s?

Somalia remained self-sufficient in food until the late 1970s despite recurrent droughts. As of the early 1980s, its national economy was destabilized and food agriculture was destroyed.

The process of economic dislocation preceded the onset of the civil war in 1991. Economic and social chaos resulting from IMF "economic medicine" had set the stage for the launching of a US sponsored "civil war".

An entire country with a rich history of commerce and economic development, was transformed into a territory.

In a bitter irony, this open territory encompasses significant oil wealth. Four US oil giants had already positioned themselves prior to the onset of the Somali civil war in 1991:

Far beneath the surface of the tragic drama of Somalia, four major U.S. oil companies are quietly sitting on a prospective fortune in exclusive concessions to explore and exploit tens of millions of acres of the Somali countryside.

According to documents obtained by The Times, nearly two-thirds of Somalia was allocated to the American oil giants Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phillips in the final years before Somalia's pro-U.S. President Mohamed SiadBarre was overthrown and the nation plunged into chaos in January, 1991.

Officially, the Administration and the State Department insist that the U.S. military mission in Somalia is strictly humanitarian. Oil industry spokesmen dismissed as "absurd" and "nonsense" allegations by aid experts, veteran East Africa analysts and several prominent Somalis that President Bush [Senior], a former Texas oilman, was moved to act in Somalia, at least in part, by the U.S. corporate oil stake.

But corporate and scientific documents disclosed that the American companies are well positioned to pursue Somalia's most promising potential oil reserves the moment the nation is pacified. And the State Department and U.S. military officials acknowledge that one of those oil companies has done more than simply sit back and hope for peace.

Conoco Inc., the only major multinational corporation to maintain a functioning office in Mogadishu throughout the past two years of nationwide anarchy, has been directly involved in the U.S. government's role in the U.N.-sponsored humanitarian military effort.( The Oil Factor in Somalia : Four American petroleum giants had agreements with the African nation before its civil war began. They could reap big rewards if peace is restored. - Los Angeles Times 1993)

Somalia had been a colony of Italy and Britain. In 1969, a post-colonial government was formed under president Mohamed SiadBarre; major social programs in health and education were implemented, rural and urban infrastructure was developed in the course of the 1970s, significant social progress including a mass literacy program was achieved.

The early 1980s marks a major turning point.

The IMF-World Bank structural adjustment program (SAP) was imposed on sub-Saharan Africa. The recurrent famines of the 1980s and 1990s are in large part the consequence of IMF-World Bank "economic medicine".

In Somalia, ten years of IMF economic medicine laid the foundations for the country's transition towards economic dislocation and social chaos.

By the late 1980s, following recurrent "austerity measures" imposed by the Washington consensus, wages in the public sector shad collapsed to three dollars a month.

The following article first published in 1993 in Le Monde diplomatique and Third World Resurgence centers on the historical causes of famine in Somalia.

This article was subsequently included as a Chapter in my book The Globalization of Poverty and the New World Order, first edition 1997, second edition, Global Research. Montreal, 2003.

SOURCE: www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25725

---

I will post the entire Chapter from Chossudovsky's book, next.

[adongo23456]

OO,

Thanks. I checked out our friends perspective. He makes very valid points.

You are right about the multi-layered nature of the conflict. I think in the first phase of the piece the objective was to get away from the stale stereotypes we are being fed with about fighting Al Qeada in Somalia. We are not fighting Al Qaeda there. We are fighting anarchy, lawlessness and criminal gangs. That is not something you can solve by just blowing people up. You need to sort out the social architecture of the society and its politics.

I also think understanding the political complexities is important. We hear about the TFG taking over but what is the TFG. I was surprised to learn about the 500 M.Ps. I used to wonder about those dudes throwing chairs at each other at the 680 Hotel. Kumbe they are the M.Ps. Handpicked mostly by the president Sheikh Sharif who himself has a lot in common with the Al Shabaab leaders, including the kingpin, Hassan Aweys.

The Speaker Sharif Hassan is also with Al shabaab in spirit. He has adamantly opposed even the AMISOM forces. He was at one time removed from the Speaker's job because of his opposition to peace keepers. Somehow he made it back. I mean if these are the people the Kenyan government is relying on to keep the peace, then they are building their house on shifting sand. We could end up caught up in the mess forever.

I also found the role of the US very intriguing. They seem to have something with the president, Sheikh Sharif. They not only saved him, but they let him go ahead and set his networks knowing the kind of people he was working with. It seems Sheikh Sharif was supposed to be the insurance against the more militant Islamic groups. That formula doesn't seem to be working. With Sheikh Sharif held up in Mogadishu, the militant Islamic groups have been having a field day building an organized crime empire that was beginning to consume the entire region.

Sheikh Sharif has to be forced to accept a more representative parliament as the irreducable minimum to stay in office. The Americans and Kenyans can squeeze him in that direction. And now that Museveni is grudgingly coming along may be they need a regional strategy including Rwanda, Burundi and the Ethiopians to streamline that TFG thing. If that TFG is not fixed to winthe confidence of the people of Somali the militant Islamic forces will always find room with the disillusioned desperate folks.

The problem with those M.Ps is that we can wake up tomorrow and find they have fired the Prime Minister. They do that all the time.

In phase two which I will do next week, I hope to capture the Somali we rarely hear about. The richness of the country. The possibilities of peace in Somalia and the impact that could have in the region. A peaceful prosperous Somali can have massive impact in Kenya. But can that be achieved through this military intervention? What are the other variables at play. How about civil society groups. Do they even exist in Somali? I know there are numerous of them in Diaspora including a whole range of them in Toronto alone. So I will try to explore all that stuff.

Merlin,

I will do that but the problem with those guys is word count. They limit it to 900 words. But I will talk with them. I have some friends there even though I have never met them.

RR,

On religion I think the emphasis from the folks I talked to was that in all its long history of conflicts the issue of fighting in the name of Islam was not there. This was introduced by the Islamic Courts. It was funny when they gave me the names of some of the big boys and many of them have adopted arab names and the Somali folks can pick them up simply by the names.

The religious angle has also been expoited by some Al Queada wannabes who want to project themselves as part of the big war against the infidels. Incidentally the EMIIR guy, Ahmed Abdi Godane was the one bent on linking the Islamic Courts to Al Qaeda.

Mr. Godane seems to have linked up with Al Qaeda while studying in Pakistan. He came back with the express agenda to start an Islamic movement and did so in Somaliland. When he killed folks they arrested him and somehow let him loose. There are even those who believe he was sent to the South to go spread his upuzi down there as long as he was not bothering the folks in Somaliland. But Godane has no influence because he has no money and the real problems in Somalia that helps Al Shabaab is poverty, anarchy and lawlessness in the country. People are not interested in some international crusade.

In terms of religion as a weapon against Al Shabaab, it is already there. According to the folks, one of the reasons the Al Shabaab is losing steam is their behaviour. When Al Shabaab bombed graduating students they earned the wrath of many Somalis. They cannot understand how a group of lunatics would bomb young graduates in the name of Islam. Also stopping people from watching TV is just not going to work. Somalis love their satelite TVs. They would take one into a cave if they have to.

[kunadawa]

The embedded journalists are doing a splendid job. Just watched an interview with Sheikh Madobe on NTV. Pictures of charcoal for export at Burgabo port (again, Nation) were simply amazing.

Nov 10, 2011 19:02:36 GMT 3 destiny said:

Masterpiece Bwana Adongo.

I often wonder why we can't get such stuff in our Kenyan media. Many folks in Kenya don't have the slightest clue about the Somali situation since our media doesn't care to explain as you have done. And you have done it exceptionally well in simple flowing language that can be understood by all.


What we get in Kenyan press is some shallow reports from AP or Reuters that is very thin on facts and material. Our reporters who are "embedded" with our forces in Somalia only try to imitate guys they see on the big stations like CNN. Sorry to say many even have some fake accents that can't be understood by the person watching the telly.

The fact is our army is in Somalia at the moment and many people are supporting them. A little background as the one you have written is in order to Wanjiku plus the tab we shall pick as taxpayers since war is a costly affair. No one is saying that!

Prezzo has not said much and those concerned only give vague press briefings. I know Kibaki has never given any interview for almost one decade now, but this is the time he should be hopping from one TV and radio station to the next to explain to the people what Adongo has done and much more.

[Mobimba]

Adongo,

Great article. It's comforting to note that the patriotic Somalis you interviewed fully support Kenya's military action in Somalia. I pray that they convert you into accepting and supporting the KDF mission i.e. the complete obliteration of Al Shabadoo.

They who love their country realize that the only path to peace is the killing of Al Shabadoo terrorists alongside their miscreant leaders such as Aweys. They understand that such a fete cannot come by way of symposiums or talking groups, you know, the kind aimed at understanding the architecture of society. The Somalis, at least the ones you talked to, fully appreciate the fact that Al Shabadoo rules and lives by the gun and must therefore die by the gun… of the KDF. Allah bless the KDF. As a matter of fact, some Somalis are consigned to that fact that Kenya's incursion into Somalia might well be their last chance for peace.

Long live the KDF. Support our troops.

[kunadawa]

It may be coincidental, but the volume of antiwar chatter in Jukwaa died down after Raila's aggressive support of the war during the Somali PM's visit

Nov 11, 2011 21:14:33 GMT 3 Mobimba said:

Adongo,

Great article. It's comforting to note that the patriotic Somalis you interviewed fully support Kenya's military action in Somalia. I pray that they convert you into accepting and supporting the KDF mission i.e. the complete obliteration of Al Shabadoo.
They who love their country realize that the only path to peace is the killing of Al Shabadoo terrorists alongside their miscreant leaders such as Aweys. They understand that such a fete cannot come by way of symposiums or talking groups, you know, the kind aimed at understanding the architecture of society. The Somalis, at least the ones you talked to, fully appreciate the fact that Al Shabadoo rules and lives by the gun and must therefore die by the gun… of the KDF. Allah bless the KDF. As a matter of fact, some Somalis are consigned to that fact that Kenya's incursion into Somalia might well be their last chance for peace.

Long live the KDF. Support our troops.

[Onyango Oloo]

Nov 11, 2011 22:21:37 GMT 3 @kunadawa said:

It may be coincidental, but the volume of antiwar chatter in Jukwaa died down after Raila's aggressive support of the war during the Somali PM's visit

Kunadawa:

I plead with you:


Please stop introducing foolishness; infantile and inane comments into an otherwise intelligent thread.

I have had to kill some of your more desperate attempts at grabbing attention.

Sometimes-like now for instance-when you clearly having NOTHING of value to contribute to a discussion, the most useful input you can add is your prolonged SILENCE.


Onyango Oloo
Administrator

[adongo23456]

Nov 11, 2011 22:55:47 GMT 3 Onyango Oloo said:

Nov 11, 2011 22:21:37 GMT 3 @kunadawa said:

It may be coincidental, but the volume of antiwar chatter in Jukwaa died down after Raila's aggressive support of the war during the Somali PM's visit

Kunadawa:

I plead with you:


Please stop introducing foolishness; infantile and inane comments into an otherwise intelligent thread.

I have had to kill some of your more desperate attempts at grabbing attention.

Sometimes-like now for instance-when you clearly having NOTHING of value to contribute to a discussion, the most useful input you can add is your prolonged SILENCE.


Onyango Oloo
Administrator

Oloo,

The Somali friends who helped me put the story together are very impressed not just with the story but also with the views as divergent as they are. So a more dignified approach is good and I agree with you.

They are are ready to work with us to at least bring real faces and real people about this war and that is why I am looking forward to phase II.

One big problem with war is that sooner or later people just become statistics like in the number of casualties and the more from your enemy side the better. We need to know the Somali folks as people. As some of our closest neighbours. We want to look at some of the challenges they have as communities and as a country. Then we have to figure out how the war is impacting the lives of these people and ours.

So far the Kenya media coverage is very mechanical. I saw a piece in the DM from that Mathu guy and you would think Osama bin Laden is in Mogadishu. Kenyans are buying into that and it is dangerous. I think some of the media down there also need to give us the Somali of ordinary Somali folk and how the war impacts their lives too.

[b6k]

RR, I'm glad you ask since this is information that's been in the public domain even before Gaddafi's take down. Naturally the best way to skin a cat is to put a local face on the skinner. You place homegrown reformists on the ground, they work up the population & if all goes to plan, a regime is toppled. If you have a tenacious opponent of the Gaddafi (or Saddam) type who just won't step down no matter what you throw at him, then you sic Africom or NATO for a more violent showdown.

In the case of Libya, can you explain why the International Republican Institute (hmmm, didn't these guys conduct exit polls on the ground after the KE '07 elections?) & Freedom House were training thousands of Arab nationals well in advance of the so-called spontaneous "Arab Spring"? These groups along with others are directly funded by the US government. As far back as 2008 they were taught how to use mobile phones, Google, Facebook & other social media to work for the cause of spreading democracy.

Do you recall how the Kibaki wing complained of youth groups that were being sponsored by foreign powers to forment unrest? Well similar complaints were raised by Arab leaders before some were overpowered by the Arab Spring tsunami. Don't take my word for it. It's all in the New York Times:

www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&emc=eta1

Did you know for instance that Gaddafi's Libya was the first government to issue an arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden a whole 5 months prior to the twin embassy bombings in KE & TZ? Uncle Sam hadn't seen the light yet. That's here in the Washington Post:

www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/gaddafis-libya-reminds-us-it-issued-the-first-bin-laden-arrest-warrant/2011/05/04/AFLEJJqF_story.html

Whichever way you look at it, these guys were taught how to network & organize by the US. Ofcourse they are locally led but the knowhow was implanted in them in the US. They were taught how to fish & unleashed on their respective countries. Mind you the US was still funding the leaders so there was usually resentment of US policy on both the reformists & status quoist sides. Sound familiar? All this information was put out there in premiere US publications even as the regime change was a work in progress. Talk about hiding in plain sight!

Obama has achieved more than all the presidents before him combined could have dreamed of achieving since the fall of Mossadegh. All his talk of peace & the need to work together, & the fact that he looks more like us (Arabs included) lulled most of us to identify with him & let our guard down. His oratory skills are a weapon of mass deception.

As for Somalia, I'm learning more about it from Adongo. Maybe I'll chip in later after he uploads part 2....

[foresight]

‘SOMALI WAR: Where is the Engine Of Trouble” reads like a collection of short vignettes that are each able to hold water on their own.

I have witnessed these fragmented histories here and there in journals and online sites, but when collected together in such an historical context, we really see the holistic brilliance of Adongo Ogonys mind.

The interconnected pieces which is Somalia’s political history and turmoil, past and present, come perfectly together to shade light on what up to now had been a kind of a "jigsaw puzzle"

The “cast” of supporting characters: The Elusive- Ahmed Abdi Godane.. The powerful- Hassan Dahir Aweys.. The Wobbly president- Abdullahi Yusuf.. The Survivor- Sheikh Sharif and The Corruption Master- Sharif Hassan are such a far-fetched collection of self seekers that the movie "Godfather" quickly comes to mind.

Yet, Adongo asks you to come along for the ride, and his writing is so researched, convincing and sincere, that you travel with him into Somalia.

“SOMALI WAR: Where is the Engine Of Trouble” challenges the capacity of your reading endurance , but once you break the barrier, it impregnates you with a seed of amazing interest, in the end you cannot help but devour the entire article in haste.

With this article Adongo has certainly "breathed life" and in the process revealed his expressive style, in what would have been otherwise a dragging and a complex reading.

Thumbs up!!

[kunadawa]

I was similarly unimpressed by your attempt to introduce Horace Campbell to this debate and his pathetic attempts to introduce AFRICOM to the Somalia conflict. (NOTE: This is not a SOMALI WAR, please rectify the post heading for Mr Adongo)

Nov 11, 2011 22:55:47 GMT 3 Onyango Oloo said:

Nov 11, 2011 22:21:37 GMT 3 @kunadawa said:

It may be coincidental, but the volume of antiwar chatter in Jukwaa died down after Raila's aggressive support of the war during the Somali PM's visit

Kunadawa:

I plead with you:


Please stop introducing foolishness; infantile and inane comments into an otherwise intelligent thread.

I have had to kill some of your more desperate attempts at grabbing attention.

Sometimes-like now for instance-when you clearly having NOTHING of value to contribute to a discussion, the most useful input you can add is your prolonged SILENCE.


Onyango Oloo
Administrator

[merkeju]

Nov 11, 2011 23:42:43 GMT 3 b6k said:

RR, I'm glad you ask since this is information that's been in the public domain even before Gaddafi's take down. Naturally the best way to skin a cat is to put a local face on the skinner. You place homegrown reformists on the ground, they work up the population & if all goes to plan, a regime is toppled. If you have a tenacious opponent of the Gaddafi (or Saddam) type who just won't step down no matter what you throw at him, then you sic Africom or NATO for a more violent showdown.

In the case of Libya, can you explain why the International Republican Institute (hmmm, didn't these guys conduct exit polls on the ground after the KE '07 elections?) & Freedom House were training thousands of Arab nationals well in advance of the so-called spontaneous "Arab Spring"? These groups along with others are directly funded by the US government. As far back as 2008 they were taught how to use mobile phones, Google, Facebook & other social media to work for the cause of spreading democracy.

Do you recall how the Kibaki wing complained of youth groups that were being sponsored by foreign powers to forment unrest? Well similar complaints were raised by Arab leaders before some were overpowered by the Arab Spring tsunami. Don't take my word for it. It's all in the New York Times:

www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&emc=eta1

Did you know for instance that Gaddafi's Libya was the first government to issue an arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden a whole 5 months prior to the twin embassy bombings in KE & TZ? Uncle Sam hadn't seen the light yet. That's here in the Washington Post:

www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/gaddafis-libya-reminds-us-it-issued-the-first-bin-laden-arrest-warrant/2011/05/04/AFLEJJqF_story.html

Whichever way you look at it, these guys were taught how to network & organize by the US. Ofcourse they are locally led but the knowhow was implanted in them in the US. They were taught how to fish & unleashed on their respective countries. Mind you the US was still funding the leaders so there was usually resentment of US policy on both the reformists & status quoist sides. Sound familiar? All this information was put out there in premiere US publications even as the regime change was a work in progress. Talk about hiding in plain sight!

Obama has achieved more than all the presidents before him combined could have dreamed of achieving since the fall of Mossadegh. All his talk of peace & the need to work together, & the fact that he looks more like us (Arabs included) lulled most of us to identify with him & let our guard down. His oratory skills are a weapon of mass deception.

As for Somalia, I'm learning more about it from Adongo. Maybe I'll chip in later after he uploads part 2....

Obama is worse than George Bush, my support for Obama ended the day i saw Gadaffi and his son murdered, the guy uses his looks and his fathers origin to promote the Americans agenda of destruction and killings.
I was wrong in rejoicing when Obama won, same as Gadaffi did, but that was the biggest mistake Africans and the Arab world did, believing that he was different, no he is the worse, sheep in a wolf clothing.