Post by Omwenga on Aug 24, 2012 20:34:53 GMT 3
In Who Is William Ruto Part VI; The Succession Game and Why The Scheme To Topple Raila Has Failed, omwenga.com/2011/06/13/who-is-william-ruto-part-vi-the-succession-game-and-why-the-scheme-to-topple-raila-has-failed/, which I penned more than one year ago, on June 13, 2011 to be precise, I noted the following which deserves a re-post as the analysis remains accurate and relevant, especially in connection with what this current series on ganging up against Raila is intended to convey.
For this reason, those who haven’t figured out where I am headed with this series would have to wait to read Part III to figure that out, which I am fairly certain they’ll be able to, whether they agree with it or not is a different question.
Here we go with my old but still relevant post about Ruto which should answer the question I left open in Part I of this series as to where Ruto stands or where I think he should:
There is no question ODM remains the largest, most organized and widely supported party in the country; there is also no question Raila remains popular across the country and so far is the man to beat to get to State House. This is the equivalent of having home field advantage.
Having a home field advantage is not by itself an assurance the home team must win the game but it’s nonetheless something every player and coach will tell you they’d rather have than playing in enemy or hostile territory, which is precisely where KSG and RSG find themselves playing when it comes to Raila even as of this writing, namely, on Raila’s turf.
Given this reality, KSG must have figured early after the last elections that the only way they could end up victorious against RAO is either (1) to topple or cripple him as the star of ODM or (2) remove his home field advantage, with the two not being mutually exclusive.
This is why Ruto was misled to leave ODM.
That is, Ruto was told “come on our side, we’ll help you destroy RAO in ODM and we’ll share the spoils: you by becoming the unquestionable new king maker in the country with continued access to power and money, our man UK the presidency.”
Although this ruse was enticing enough for Ruto to sever relations with Raila and leave him and ODM, which he has for all practical purposes and intent done, he will be the first one to tell you bringing down RAO may have looked easy on the drawing board but when it comes down to it, Raila is more firmly grounded the most and best Ruto or anyone is going to do, is to have Raila’s towering presence sway sideways half-an inch or so and in the process shake some leaves off his braches but that’s it.
KSG and RSG [Raila Succession Game] having put forth their best efforts but failed to topple RAO or even cripple him as the star player of Team ODM half-way through Game 1, its strategists must have figured the only other option is to confuse, deal and even buy and woo away ODM and RAO’s fans and turn enough of them into their supporters therefore negating RAO’s home-field advantage.
KSG once again, found in Ruto the appropriate mascot to do this—and I don’t use this term pejoratively, but, much to their surprise and quite frankly everyone else’s, KSG and Ruto are finding these ODM and Raila fans more deeply committed to their team than anticipated, and even for a number of those not as deeply committed, neither KSG nor Ruto has given them any good reason why they should abandon support for their team and specifically, neither KSG nor Ruto has offered anything in terms of assuring them a thriller game and a lasting celebration thereafter, given these fans are not impressed or interested in what the KSG and Ruto has to offer, compared to what ODM or Raila is offering, or can.
Which leads me to the other question posed, and that is, whether Ruto’s severed relationship with ODM and Raila is salvageable.
I most certainly think it is, for the reasons I state in ODM Prodigal Son Come Home; Extending An Olive Branch To William Samoei Ruto omwenga.com/2011/04/26/odm-prodigal-son-come-home/, which I post a good and updated portion of it as follows, for the reader’s convenience. (For full flavor and context, please read the blog itself).
The Book of Luke Chapter 15:11-32 tells the story of the Prodigal Son; a story about two sons and a father in which after the younger son so requests, his father divides the family property evenly between the two sons. The younger son sets off to have fun on wildly things and after squandering everything, returns to his homestead and his father welcomes him back much to the chagrin of his older brother who remained and labored for the father all the while the younger son was having fun but never accorded any show of affection or appreciation from the father.
I thought about this story when reading a Standard Online story appearing on www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000034025&cid=4& that a cabinet reshuffle is afoot and that the PM is faced with a choice to keep or let go the suspended minister for education, William Ruto. The party is apparently divided with the handful of MPs allied to Ruto saying he should be allowed to return with the rest saying he should be shown the door he is already more than half way past anyway. The cabinet reshuffle has yet to take place as of this writing.
Going strictly by what is reasonable, this is an easy decision for Raila to make: show Ruto the door and let in a replacement from the Rift Valley–and there are any number of able and more qualified MPs who more than fit the shoes left empty with Ruto’s departure.
That’ll be a very easy decision to make had there not been such lies and distortions propagated by Ruto and Co against Raila in the Rift which in my view Ruto should basically confess to and save his political career by asking Raila to assent to his return to the cabinet. Doing otherwise is unwise.
Since posting this blog [the Prodigal Son, Come Home], Members of Parliament led by Hon. Frankling Bett have come forth to confirm that Ruto, indeed, has been lying about Raila and his role in the Mau evictions.
As I discussed in The News About Rift Valley ODM MPs Getting Set To Regain Ground in RV Is Good News, omwenga.com/2011/06/07/the-news-about-rift-valley-odm-mps-getting-set-to-regain-ground-in-rv-is-good-news-not-just-for-odm-but-also-great-news-for-the-country/ the MPs’ move is good news not just for ODM and Raila, but also for the country at large.
Meanwhile, in the previous Standard story, Ruto’s allies were quoted as saying Ruto “is not desperate” to return to the cabinet. That’s cannot be true.
Ruto would rather be a rebel ODM MP and minister than a rebel ODM MP without a ministerial portfolio, which itself is better than quitting ODM and being forced to seek re-election to parliament, an outcome which is not assured despite Ruto having everyone believe it is.
Quitting ODM and seeking fresh mandate is a pre-requisite, if being a PNU minister is what Ruto has been promised by those egging or advising him to quit ODM and join that party.
As I have stated elsewhere in my blog, Ruto has been a rebel ODM member for a long time but time is nearing for Ruto to make a decision whether he disembarks completely from ODM or he hangs on for what it’s worth to him.
The media has cast this as the PM’s major decision as to whether to keep or boot Ruto, given the impending reshuffle.
I say the bigger decision is for Ruto to decide whether he leaves ODM for an uncertain political future or seek redemption and stay on in ODM where his future is better predictable and altogether avoid the sharks that await him in the waters were he to jump ship.
Like the prodigal son, Ruto should simply return home to ODM, seek redemption to the extent possible and I am sure the party will welcome him back with no hurt feelings.
Obviously some may consider this prospect out of the question but in the final analysis, it is a better path Ruto should seriously consider given where things are headed politically for him.
Incidentally, just saying this reminds me of one Maasai warrior from Moi era by the name Stanley Oloitiptip. (You’ll have to read about the Oloitiptip connection on the blog).
In sum, Ruto has been trying to find shorter ways to get to the presidency.
He has been aggressive and direct about this.
There is nothing wrong with that; after all, ambition and a desire to get to your desired destination in a hurry is not necessarily a bad thing, but you must do it right, otherwise it’s undesirable and condemnable.
In other words, what’s wrong with unchecked ambition and trying to get to one’s destination in a hurry is if, when in doing so, you create havoc and misery along the way for others, while wrecking everything else to your destination.
Not a good thing to do.
Ruto can still get to his desired destination of State House; he just must make sure his vessel of choice is fully serviced, with all the necessaries to last the trip; since he knows he cannot make it there by himself, even with the support of his entire Kalenjin community, he must make sure he is in a vessel with a good Captain and experienced crew capable of navigating the turbulent waters of the high seas; he must be prepared to work closely with the captain and position himself to take over the role of Captain when the latter retires or otherwise no longer wishes to be at the helm, he must make sure there are no individuals aboard, including the captain ready and willing to throw him overboard for their own desired ends—if and when necessary; he must recognize and let the Captain pilot the vessel without interference and he must make amends with the Captain for anything he may have done to miff the Captain, if he must, and he must do so quick, lest the Captain becomes the one who has to have him thrown overboard to political abyss, if it is in the interest of the vessel and welfare of its occupants and the nation to do so.
End old blog.
Early this year, Uhuru and Ruto engaged in what everyone knew to be reckless and dangerous crisscrossing the country planting seeds of discord following the confirmation of charges against them and I documented this in the blog Uhuru and Ruto Are Sowing Seeds of Discord And Laying Ground for Second PEV Unless Stopped.
Thankfully and for reasons not necessary to get into here, these dangerous and reckless rallies ceased and the architects went back into the drawing board for other tactics to employ against their target, and the one man who keeps them awake 24/7 plotting against and that is one Raila Amolo Odinga.
Meanwhile, there have been reports in the media that Raila and Ruto have had talks or are talking.
I do not know whether that’s true or not.
What I do know is, it is in Ruto’s interest to align himself with Raila despite his huge ego and despite everything he has thus far said about such an alliance.
This is a far much better proposition and prospect analytically and politically speaking than anything else he may see ahead.
That is Uhuru and Ruto.
Hon. Martha Karua (HMK) or Opondi as another blogger calls her, I first met her at her office back in 2003 in connection with a case related to the 1998 bombing of the US Embassy in Nairobi.
HMK was the lead attorney representing the victims, I represented the lawyers in pursuing the case on the US side.
To be continued in Part III.
Uchambuzi Tanaka www.omwenga.com