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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 2, 2014 19:51:20 GMT 3
Even our so called engineers and contractors can 'uproot' (hehehehe) an existing line, smelt and re - engineer the bad sectors, and re-alighn them can't they ? An interesting question, given that there are numerous instances where an existing rail line has been converted to a different gauge (including Standard Gauge) by simply "picking up" one side and moving it a little to the left or to the right. After a quick review of Kenyan history, my bet is on the cartel: 10-1 prediction. A Digital Government, every toddler with a laptop, ... but the old " checked all shelves, file missing" still works! Vision 2030 3020. Parliament might not approve the funds? Ata parliament ina wenyewe. Anyway, to my point ... I am impressed by how quickly and how much Kenyans have learned from the Chinese. I have read a great deal of old Chinese literature, and padding contracts and then skimming off the top a was well-established by, say, 1600, as were other forms of corruption; what's more, they were accepted as standard practices. As always, everywhere, government work was where the real money was. The Chinese still do business this way---the cost of bribes and so on required to win contracts are added "overheads" to be recouped as are "bonuses"---but even in China itself it is now sometimes regarded as bad form, especially where the government is involved. Best done elsewhere, although I notice the Chinese government's stern warning to Chinese doing business in Africa. (Exact words: " by all means catch the fish, but don't drain the pond and take all; that's short-sighted".) What is amazing about Kenya is the percentage they are prepared to whack on for later skimming and that it is being done in broad daylight (unlike earlier instances of Big Eating)! Step aside, Nigeria. Here comes Kenya.
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 2, 2014 21:19:05 GMT 3
Even our so called engineers and contractors can 'uproot' (hehehehe) an existing line, smelt and re - engineer the bad sectors, and re-alighn them can't they ?An interesting question, given that there are numerous instances where an existing rail line has been converted to a different gauge (including Standard Gauge) by simply "picking up" one side and moving it a little to the left or to the right. After a quick review of Kenyan history, my bet is on the cartel: 10-1 prediction. A Digital Government, every toddler with a laptop, ... but the old " checked all shelves, file missing" still works! Vision 2030 3020. Parliament might not approve the funds? Ata parliament ina wenyewe. Anyway, to my point ... I am impressed by how quickly and how much Kenyans have learned from the Chinese. I have read a great deal of old Chinese literature, and padding contracts and then skimming off the top a was well-established by, say, 1600, as were other forms of corruption; what's more, they were accepted as standard practices. As always, everywhere, government work was where the real money was. The Chinese still do business this way---the cost of bribes and so on required to win contracts are added "overheads" to be recouped as are "bonuses"---but even in China itself it is now sometimes regarded as bad form, especially where the government is involved. Best done elsewhere, although I notice the Chinese government's stern warning to Chinese doing business in Africa. (Exact words: " by all means catch the fish, but don't drain the pond and take all; that's short-sighted".) What is amazing about Kenya is the percentage they are prepared to whack on for later skimming and that it is being done in broad daylight (unlike earlier instances of Big Eating)! Step aside, Nigeria. Here comes Kenya. I am not against a railway network in Kenya. Such must be. But when it is to be done this Raila-Kibaki-Uhuruto way, where it is merely a bright scam, then it can wait . I am in no hurry to be ripped off by anybody. Even for a mirage of a 2030 Vision. Look at how a hard-working competent engineer [ Brunel] solves problems, and more than 200 years later, they last. So yes, Omundu and Njakip, inspired Kenyan engineers can uproot, smelt, refashion and replant the iron path upon which the iron snake shall run! He hehe he and we shall award them elders of the burning spear, Elders of steel-track hearts! About 200 years ago! look and marvel! maiden head bridge Clifton suspension bridge ---like the one in New York. 1843 Thames Tunnel. Royal albert bridge –Kwani Kenyan engineers anno 2014 can not replicate these feats? Yawa!for a few hundred ksh. billions less? –That is my vision 2030! [ not 3020 like Njakips]Our own genial engineers risen up! And passed on to legend, like Brunel of England. I already have a vision of their titles, our star Kenya engineers, after the rail is complete! Conquerers of the Tsavo! Saviours of the wildebeest [because of a tunnel under the path of the beasts], Torches of Sudan [railway connects Juba], wings of the rift valley [rail flies over the RV to Kisumu]. Uhuru Kenyatta, form a Kenyan consortium man, and, like Adolf Hitler to his engineers for a super weapon, read them the riot act. You know it was Hitler’s pressure up the ass of German scientists that resulted into Einstein’s ground breaking equation. The Americans just run away with the results. The heavy lifting was done in Germany. Under pressure. Excell or die, that is the order you Muigai must give to Kenyan engineers. And to yourself sir, one order. Stop graft or resign. Tyranny of numbers need not be a tyranny of thieves.All over Kenya, wananchi are organising and lynching thieves: Cattle thieves, domestic thieves, bodaboda thieves. Somewhere along the line, the heavens might just give them the wisdom ---to go for the real robbers! And the big party time starts! Making a bonfire of thieves, all thieves! That is my vision 2030. I estimated the savings to the treasury in that case, enough to reduce the state debt to near zero! Even three Rotichs can not beat that!
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 13, 2014 23:07:50 GMT 3
I take my hat off to Kenyans!
The Nigerians have been warned: the Kenyans have arrived. Two CRBCs, one "briefcase" and one real. Cheques will "legitimately" made out to CRBC, one half doing nothing other collecting the "skim" and the other half doing the real work (but, being, Chinese, all collecting some "overheads".) Very clever.
And wouldn't be funny of the Briefcase CRBC was "mistaken" for the Real CRBC, took a nice, fat initial payment and then disappeared?
A question for Kenyans: In most parts of the world, a company name is so important that it is just about the first thing everyone checks in the registration business. How does registration work in Kenya?
Also, what does this kienyeji style of registration mean for foreigners who might wish to invest in Kenya, by starting new businesses?
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 16, 2014 16:15:53 GMT 3
I take my hat off to Kenyans! The Nigerians have been warned: the Kenyans have arrived. Two CRBCs, one "briefcase" and one real. Cheques will "legitimately" made out to CRBC, one half doing nothing other collecting the "skim" and the other half doing the real work (but, being, Chinese, all collecting some "overheads".) Very clever. And wouldn't be funny of the Briefcase CRBC was "mistaken" for the Real CRBC, took a nice, fat initial payment and then disappeared? A question for Kenyans: In most parts of the world, a company name is so important that it is just about the first thing everyone checks in the registration business. How does registration work in Kenya? Also, what does this kienyeji style of registration mean for foreigners who might wish to invest in Kenya, by starting new businesses? www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000104045&story_title=chinese-firm-in-railway-probe-not-incorporated-in-kenya-ps-says AND then feb 14th 2014. Read more at: www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000104594&story_title=chinese-railway-firm-in-registration-dispute SPOT THE difference! It is a scam alright. William Ruto was right the first take when he raised the alarm and refused to party along. Now, on the second take defending it the way it is, we can only say he has been handsomely persuaded and raise his hand up in surrender. So he was merely holding out, to extort a sky-high rate for himself. This is when Otishotish would sarcastically say, Kazi-iendelee. But this is a trillion ksh rip-off, and that is just about Henry Rotich’s annual budget the last finance year!
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 16, 2014 16:31:22 GMT 3
Omundu,lets keep asking the hard questions. Strong Omundu, I was trying to find the post in which you questioned THE ECONOMICS of the Rail, and I think the other Omundu alluded to the fact that, because there was a contract forcing Mombasa port to ferry cargo through the rail, out ruling other [road] options even if competitive, this means the funders were doubting its economic viabilty/profitability. It has to be an enforced monopoly! Here is a look at some figures from Ndii, writing in the daily nation. I will ask our econometrist, Amigo Gringo(rofl)Mank, to screen them. But take a look first. www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/New-railway-is-not-value-for-money-/-/440808/2207034/-/wgmkww/-/index.html
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 16, 2014 19:59:17 GMT 3
WANT STANDARD GAUGE RAILWAY LINE? ALAREADY HAVE A RAILWAY LINE? CONSIDER AMERICAN APPROACH.The solution there was the direct and obvious one: pick up one rail and move it a few inches to the left. southern.railfan.net/ties/1966/66-8/gauge.html" And in the South, plans were nearing completion for one of the most complex and dramatic two-day periods in railroading history -- changing the gauge of an estimated 11,500 miles of track." ... " In effect, the pressures of free competition had provided a catalyst, and the stage was set for changing the gauge of practically every road in the South-a change that, ultimately, would be accomplished in less than 36 hours."Here's how they did it: " Differing in some specifics between the various roads, plans were worked out in minute detail for reducing the width between rails, and between the wheels, by 3 inches.
Only one rail would be moved in on the day of the change, so inside spikes were hammered into place at the new gauge width well in advance of the change, leaving only the need for a few blows of the sledgehammer once the rail was placed. As May 31 drew near, some spikes were pulled from the rail that was to be moved in order to reduce as much as possible the time required to release the rail from its old position". They also had the little problem of axels on rolling stock. That was solved this way: " To shorten the axles of rolling stock and motive power that could not be prepared in advance, lathes and crews were stationed at various points throughout the South to accomplish the work concurrently with the change in track gauge."... " In less than three days, standard-gauge trains were serving the South. 'The work was done economically,' an article in the Journal of the Association of Engineering Societies pointed out, 'and so quietly that the public hardly realized it was in progress'."
(By now, it is obvious that "quietly" won't apply in any Kenyan case.)
All that was in 1886!
A drawing of the work in progress, some men hammering and others doing the moving-a-little .... somebody in Kenya should see a prophecy in the outline of the drawing!
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Post by mank on Feb 16, 2014 20:57:26 GMT 3
Omundu,lets keep asking the hard questions. Strong Omundu, I was trying to find the post in which you questioned THE ECONOMICS of the Rail, and I think the other Omundu alluded to the fact that, because there was a contract forcing Mombasa port to ferry cargo through the rail, out ruling other [road] options even if competitive, this means the funders were doubting its economic viabilty/profitability. It has to be an enforced monopoly! Here is a look at some figures from Ndii, writing in the daily nation. I will ask our econometrist, Amigo Gringo(rofl)Mank, to screen them. But take a look first. www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/New-railway-is-not-value-for-money-/-/440808/2207034/-/wgmkww/-/index.htmlAmigo Jakaswanga, I like how you keep tabs on various conjectural positions we take on issues, and then come to open the page when new events shine new light on those positions. It reminds me your tab on the issue of "double-decker" government. On the other hand, perhaps owing to that Ugandan poison you have trained your head to, you won't stop calling me names, even after I issued you a top notch threat. I know my sister has been nice to you. Just watch out. If you continue calling me names you will see things change. Now on the issue: You have now attracted me to this rail project enough for me to be interested in going to the top of this thread and reading it through. But I am aware that Ndii's economic analysis has nothing to do with the literature. Don't you wish projects would always be preceded, rather than be followed, by economic studies? That said, there is a level of non-transparency in Ndii's analysis that I am struggling with. He calculates that the Ksh. 300 B cost of investment would need to be rewarded with a surplus of at least sh22.5 B annually to be worth it (at 7.5% rate of interest). Note that he leaves out the "B" ... an indication of inattention to detail that we all can exhibit at times, but then I wonder whether that inattention to detail might be the source of the difficulty I am facing with the next step in which he says:It is not apparent to me how he gets from the sh22.5 B to a turnover of at least sh120 B. A surplus (understood in the context of use of the term in this study) of sh. 22.5B could be obtained at many different levels of operation - however, as he seems versed with the rail industry, he might be applying some industry-specific financial ratios predictive of the level of operation given the target surplus. To assume a turnover of sh120 billion, he seems to have assumed a cost of operations of sh97.5 billion. It is unclear to how he got to the sh120 billion. Unfortunately, since this number leads to the rest of the results, it is important that we know the source of that number to objectively evaluate the result. To able to go the next step let me assume that the sh120 B is realistic. If the rail is charging $1000 (we need to realize that this is about sh86,000) per container, then to generate sh120 B the rail has to move 1,395,349 (about 1.4 m) 20-foot containers (annually) or close to 4,000 a day. If that is hauled by 48 very long trains, "very long" means "about 80 containers long." Without question, that's " lots of very long" trains. If the Mombasa port is now handling containers about one million 20-foot containers a year, it seems it needs to expand some by the time the rail is completed, just to handle the volume the rail needs moved to be economically sound ... that's not promising at al!!! And that is assuming monopoly of the rail! Apparently so. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which every container going through the airport is delivered through rail given that rail cannot reach every corner of the business territory served by the airport. For many businesses it would not make sense to change over to rail once they have started off by road. Some of those businessses, nnfortunately, can be forced out of business by a forced monopoly of the rail. Nothing assures the rail that 1.4 m containers will be available for movement ... not even a government-enforced monopoly of the rail ... with that in mind, the rail seems to be a wasteful investment (for the short-term). Note however that the sh120 billion turnover is a weak link to this conclusion. Further, with time the economy might grow enough to supply enough juice for the rail. The question is whether the rail can be sustained in the short term.
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 17, 2014 0:08:34 GMT 3
Now on the issue: You have now attracted me to this rail project enough for me to be interested in going to the top of this thread and reading it through. But I am aware that Ndii's economic analysis has nothing to do with the literature. Don't you wish projects would always be preceded, rather than be followed, by economic studies? That said, there is a level of non-transparency in Ndii's analysis that I am struggling with. He calculates that the Ksh. 300 B cost of investment would need to be rewarded with a surplus of at least sh22.5 B annually to be worth it (at 7.5% rate of interest). Note that he leaves out the "B" ... an indication of inattention to detail that we all can exhibit at times, but then I wonder whether that inattention to detail might be the source of the difficulty I am facing with the next step in which he says:It is not apparent to me how he gets from the sh22.5 B to a turnover of at least sh120 B. A surplus (understood in the context of use of the term in this study) of sh. 22.5B could be obtained at many different levels of operation - however, as he seems versed with the rail industry, he might be applying some industry-specific financial ratios predictive of the level of operation given the target surplus. To assume a turnover of sh120 billion, he seems to have assumed a cost of operations of sh97.5 billion. It is unclear to how he got to the sh120 billion. Unfortunately, since this number leads to the rest of the results, it is important that we know the source of that number to objectively evaluate the result. To able to go the next step let me assume that the sh120 B is realistic. If the rail is charging $1000 (we need to realize that this is about sh86,000) per container, then to generate sh120 B the rail has to move 1,395,349 (about 1.4 m) 20-foot containers (annually) or close to 4,000 a day. If that is hauled by 48 very long trains, "very long" means "about 80 containers long." Without question, that's " lots of very long" trains. If the Mombasa port is now handling containers about one million 20-foot containers a year, it seems it needs to expand some by the time the rail is completed, just to handle the volume the rail needs moved to be economically sound ... that's not promising at al!!! And that is assuming monopoly of the rail! Apparently so. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which every container going through the airport is delivered through rail given that rail cannot reach every corner of the business territory served by the airport. For many businesses it would not make sense to change over to rail once they have started off by road. Some of those businessses, nnfortunately, can be forced out of business by a forced monopoly of the rail. Nothing assures the rail that 1.4 m containers will be available for movement ... not even a government-enforced monopoly of the rail ... with that in mind, the rail seems to be a wasteful investment (for the short-term). Note however that the sh120 billion turnover is a weak link to this conclusion. Further, with time the economy might grow enough to supply enough juice for the rail. The question is whether the rail can be sustained in the short term. Mank, you know me I think we do need an intensive rail-network, even just for passengers/commuters. As a regular traveller to Europe Proper, I see what rails can do, ferrying people to work and decongesting cities. You know like 3 trains/hour between Nairobi and Nakuru, 2 express city-to-city, 1 stopping every 20km, effectively means ---at 90km/hour, 200,000 people can live in Nakuru and work daily in Nairobi, commuting. ( 60 Minutes from Nakuru to Nairobi, that is within the Nairobi traffic-jam takes, from City Center to Kawangware, or to Kariobangi via Jogoo Road, or Embakasi/Kayole.) So deep in my heart, I actually love railways. But it is a job that gonna be done right, from the start. ---I love Otishotish’s diagram of the American solution above. Something our engineers can do ---a local solution! And affordably gently on Wanjiku!! (Shape looks like map of Africa, or is it the head of a camel?) On the other detail Amigo: We know the approx. SGR cost to Nairobi $356 bn officially or so. We know the Loan angle: how much, at what I-rate the Chinese are giving. Then we know, the begin time of refund. I think tic toc begins 2016 as soon as the rail is declared operational. How much money goes into OPERATIONAL COSTS I think insiders [transport economists] have a good model if they care to share with us. I tend to think, therefor, even if Ndii got it wrong, there is enough open data to work the sum out realistically ---By now I am aware of different models which can give different desired results so I am forewarned. ###By the way sometime back I was reading the construction history of the EURO-TUNNEL and how it nearly was abandoned, how the cost went through the roof, inspite of what one would have thought of as highly trained, professional and experienced consortium and consultants. Mank, bankers can start calculating interest rates from the day the loan is agreed, not disbursed. And if the loan is agreed 5 years before the project starts? By the time you start, you are already broke forever! And then no private investors will take that risk unless they are assured of passing it all to the tax-payer. This is what explains the state ownership of most Railway companies in Europe Main. Thatcherite liberalisation did not dent this. Rails are long-term affairs, like education! If you have time amigo, google a bit of the shit on the EURO-TUNNEL. How it nearly failed. And why the next one, between Morocco and Spain, connecting Afrika to Europe, is not yet on the cards. PS: A smiley did not appear but it should have when I called you Gringo! Praise Jah you are not taking to those courts where one can easily be fined 15 goats for disrespecting an in-law! truth is I have been watching winter Olympics and drinking ---Vodka for a change!
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Post by mank on Feb 17, 2014 2:08:20 GMT 3
Mank, you know me I think we do need an intensive rail-network, even just for passengers/commuters. As a regular traveller to Europe Proper, I see what rails can do, ferrying people to work and decongesting cities. You know like 3 trains/hour between Nairobi and Nakuru, 2 express city-to-city, 1 stopping every 20km, effectively means ---at 90km/hour, 200,000 people can live in Nakuru and work daily in Nairobi, commuting. ( 60 Minutes from Nakuru to Nairobi, that is within the Nairobi traffic-jam takes, from City Center to Kawangware, or to Kariobangi via Jogoo Road, or Embakasi/Kayole.) So deep in my heart, I actually love railways. But it is a job that gonna be done right, from the start. ---I love Otishotish’s diagram of the American solution above. Something our engineers can do ---a local solution! And affordably gently on Wanjiku!! (Shape looks like map of Africa, or is it the head of a camel?) On the other detail Amigo: We know the approx. SGR cost to Nairobi $356 bn officially or so. We know the Loan angle: how much, at what I-rate the Chinese are giving. Then we know, the begin time of refund. I think tic toc begins 2016 as soon as the rail is declared operational. How much money goes into OPERATIONAL COSTS I think insiders [transport economists] have a good model if they care to share with us. I tend to think, therefor, even if Ndii got it wrong, there is enough open data to work the sum out realistically ---By now I am aware of different models which can give different desired results so I am forewarned. ###By the way sometime back I was reading the construction history of the EURO-TUNNEL and how it nearly was abandoned, how the cost went through the roof, inspite of what one would have thought of as highly trained, professional and experienced consortium and consultants. Mank, bankers can start calculating interest rates from the day the loan is agreed, not disbursed. And if the loan is agreed 5 years before the project starts? By the time you start, you are already broke forever! And then no private investors will take that risk unless they are assured of passing it all to the tax-payer. This is what explains the state ownership of most Railway companies in Europe Main. Thatcherite liberalisation did not dent this. Rails are long-term affairs, like education! If you have time amigo, google a bit of the shit on the EURO-TUNNEL. How it nearly failed. And why the next one, between Morocco and Spain, connecting Afrika to Europe, is not yet on the cards. PS: A smiley did not appear but it should have when I called you Gringo! Praise Jah you are not taking to those courts where one can easily be fined 15 goats for disrespecting an in-law! truth is I have been watching winter Olympics and drinking ---Vodka for a change! Me too amigo, I love rail, and I believe EA is ripe for a good network. So I have no problem with the dream. We have to be willing to dream big! I would be supportive any thought out rail projects as long as they are competitively installed ... from feasibility studies, to financing, contracting and implementation. The problem here is not the dream ... it is whether we are efficient in realizing the dream. The reason Ndii's sh120 billion turnover is curious is because it leads us to a break-even threashold of operation that is hardly deliverable unless port activity increases significantly. Turnover projection is crucial because it is the indicator of demand for rail services. It is when gauged against current port business that the minimum turnover that Ndii finds to be necessary to make the rail self supporting that the investment seems unsupoorted economically. But we should not chain ourselves with Malthusian pessimism when evaluating projects like infrustracture ... opening up of a functional rail network would without doubt encourage more movement of goods, possibly take business away from some other Africa's ports, and even bring new factories into the region - the idea of ruling out cargo movement by road could be a deterent against all those effects, as businesses shy away from an environment where planning is unnecessarily constrained by government. Rejecting Malthusian pessimism, therefore, we cannot outrightly rule the investment unsound just because current port operations would not support it economically. Still, understanding how Ndii comes up with that turnover estimate is crucial in assessing the inferences that his analysis inspire. You make an apt observation ... utilities, including infrastructure, have too much upfront costs, versus slow long-term benefits, which renders them rare initiatives for private enterprise. So governments have to lead ... or investments will will be seriously below optimal. I saw the rofl amigo ... I would not be in a hurry to cast a curse on my in-law. Be asured though that even a real Gringo could get enough pigment on rubbing against me, to successfully feign not being Gringo. I know you use the term to indicate location rather than pigment though ... so don't worry ... I won't launch my communication with Jah about your manners, nor report you to the eleders ... not yet.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 17, 2014 3:58:11 GMT 3
opening up of a functional rail network would without doubt encourage more movement of goods, possibly take business away from some other Africa's ports, That's exactly what some folks to the south think " Bagamoyo will have the capacity to handle 20 million containers a year, compared with Mombasa’s installed capacity of 600,000 and Dar es Salaam’s 500,000. ... Tanzania also plans to construct a railway line linking its coast to the landlocked countries of Uganda, DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, which have hitherto used Mombasa-Malaba as the main transport corridor. ... Meanwhile, Kenya’s efforts to upgrade facilities at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, expand the Mombasa port as well as construct the Lamu port, continue to lag behind schedule. ... Kenya has also signed a deal with China for build a standard gauge railway between Mombasa and Malaba. But nothing much has been seen on this front."www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Tanzania-plan-for--11bn-port-threat-to-Mombasa/-/2558/1849536/-/item/0/-/7lunsd/-/index.html
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Post by mank on Feb 17, 2014 4:32:36 GMT 3
opening up of a functional rail network would without doubt encourage more movement of goods, possibly take business away from some other Africa's ports, That's exactly what some folks to the south think " Bagamoyo will have the capacity to handle 20 million containers a year, compared with Mombasa’s installed capacity of 600,000 and Dar es Salaam’s 500,000. ... Tanzania also plans to construct a railway line linking its coast to the landlocked countries of Uganda, DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, which have hitherto used Mombasa-Malaba as the main transport corridor. ... Meanwhile, Kenya’s efforts to upgrade facilities at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, expand the Mombasa port as well as construct the Lamu port, continue to lag behind schedule. ... Kenya has also signed a deal with China for build a standard gauge railway between Mombasa and Malaba. But nothing much has been seen on this front."www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Tanzania-plan-for--11bn-port-threat-to-Mombasa/-/2558/1849536/-/item/0/-/7lunsd/-/index.htmlI think this wil turn out to be a great undertaking Njakip, but that's only if we can manage it. Already the start is not great, and you know our falks are very creative in the negative sense. If we have relaxed rules this early in the project, there is no telling what side projects will be financed in the course of the actual project. Pray it gets completed. I won't deceive myself that it can be completed at a competitive cost.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 17, 2014 7:42:21 GMT 3
I think this wil turn out to be a great undertaking Njakip, but that's only if we can manage it. Already the start is not great, and you know our falks are very creative in the negative sense. If we have relaxed rules this early in the project, there is no telling what side projects will be financed in the course of the actual project. Pray it gets completed. I won't deceive myself that it can be completed at a competitive cost. Friend Mank: A great deal depends on exactly what you mean by "great". Does Kenya need a better rail network (as well as a better road network)? Absolutely. Greatly. Is it possible for the building to happen without the excessive eating? Absolutely. Greatly. The SGR thing will happen in Kenya. Too many deals have already been signed, and I bet some eating has already been done ... Something like a couple of months ago, I watched a news video-clip of His Excellency, Mrs. His Excellency, and Mr. Deputy His Excellency wandering about a railway line and performing some sort of opening ceremony. So, SGR-in-Kenya will happen; Kenyans will simply have to suck it up and pay for it. But to see so much eating done in broad daylight! If Tanzanians finish the Kenyans in this regional transportation business, it will be because they can moderate their eating ... Will the SGR be a good deal for Kenyans? I have no idea, and I don't know enough of railroad economics to do a Ndii. But no doubt the spoon-bending brains in GoK do ... For example, I can't understand why the existing line cannot be spruced up and at the same time "upgraded" to standard gauge. Kenya will have its SGR, and Kenyans will bend over and pay for it and for the eating. That we can take to the bank. The question is this: for how long? I ask because "maintenance" doesn't have a particularly hot history in Kenya ... What could Kenya have achieved without so much eating? What can Kenya achieve without so much eating? Hmm.
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Post by mank on Feb 17, 2014 9:22:34 GMT 3
I think this wil turn out to be a great undertaking Njakip, but that's only if we can manage it. Already the start is not great, and you know our falks are very creative in the negative sense. If we have relaxed rules this early in the project, there is no telling what side projects will be financed in the course of the actual project. Pray it gets completed. I won't deceive myself that it can be completed at a competitive cost. Friend Mank: A great deal depends on exactly what you mean by "great". Does Kenya need a better rail network (as well as a better road network)? Absolutely. Greatly. Is it possible for the building to happen without the excessive eating? Absolutely. Greatly. The SGR thing will happen in Kenya. Too many deals have already been signed, and I bet some eating has already been done ... Something like a couple of months ago, I watched a news video-clip of His Excellency, Mrs. His Excellency, and Mr. Deputy His Excellency wandering about a railway line and performing some sort of opening ceremony. So, SGR-in-Kenya will happen; Kenyans will simply have to suck it up and pay for it. But to see so much eating done in broad daylight! If Tanzanians finish the Kenyans in this regional transportation business, it will be because they can moderate their eating ... Will the SGR be a good deal for Kenyans? I have no idea, and I don't know enough of railroad economics to do a Ndii. But no doubt the spoon-bending brains in GoK do ... For example, I can't understand why the existing line cannot be spruced up and at the same time "upgraded" to standard gauge. Kenya will have its SGR, and Kenyans will bend over and pay for it and for the eating. That we can take to the bank. The question is this: for how long? I ask because "maintenance" doesn't have a particularly hot history in Kenya ... What could Kenya have achieved without so much eating? What can Kenya achieve without so much eating? Hmm. Amigo Njakip, What do I mean by great? It is that the country will be a lot better off with the rail network than without it. You and I don't seem to be disagreeing. Infact we do not disagree on any account. I am confident that if we pay "not too much more than we need to pay" (competitive pricing and non of that Kenya's something small), Kenyan's won't need to break their backs to pay for this rail network. There is real hunger for means of getting things around. While the concentration of the assessment of the economic viability of this rail network has centered around cargo trains I have this sense that commutor train is what we need most ... and I hope the network is meant for commuter trains first and foremost. Like amigo Jakaswanga was saying over the top of his glass of waragi , imagine a day when you don't have to live in congested Nairobi to work there! For a fantasy, it is a few years after the network is established, and am living in Isiolo ... from here I can hop into a train at 5 am and be in my office in Nairobi at 8.00 with lots of room to give. ... then my housing need not be in Nairobi ... it is in Isiolo. We have grown Isiolo some, and decongested Nairobi some. ... and provided a push for money to circulate a little more in Isiolo and all in between Isiolo and Nairobi. I cannot imagine a more promising key to economic advancement than a much needed transportation fabric. Other than too much eating the only other thing I worry about is regulation risk. Kenya has proven over and over again to not realize that businesses have other placs to operate from ... so GK just spits out coercive policy after coercife policy as if Kenya is the world. We need to change this attitude if we are to attract international corporations ... what I hope we have in mind as we place that iron fabric down. I am not blind to the line of excellencies showing up to work or is it eat? I just hope they will eat sparingly ... it would be unrealistic to expect that their won't be some dining. It is a Kenyan project, amigo! I am a little disappointed with Ndii. The man attempted to show us that we do not not currently demand as much cargo rail service as would be needed to make the proposed network viable, but he failed to communicate. It is not about us not knowing the industry ... he was guiding us through the analysis, and he abandoned us across the bridge ... or does he wish for "trust me?" But let me not be too harsh ... it could be my fault at not picking a clue he offers.
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Post by kamalet on Feb 17, 2014 10:07:32 GMT 3
The flaws of Ndii's arguments... 1. The port will by time of completion of MSA-NBI line be moving more than the 1.4 million TEUs he reckons are required to make the railway line pay for itself. 2. The current duration of cargo transit MSA-NBI is 29.8 Hours whilst the 'high speed rail will deliver the cargo to Nairobi in circa 5 hours. 3. Current cost of road transport is estimated at just over US$ 1000. So give or take this at US$1400 by time of railway completion. 4. If we use his estimate of US$1000, then it would be a no brainer for anyone who wants to move cargo from Mombasa to Naitobi as it is cheaper and faster!! The scaremongering that we hear about Bagamoyo killng Mombasa is no more than that. One just needs to question by Rwanda and company still prefer the Kenya route to move their cargo despite it being longer than the Tanzania route. The Rwandese are not dunderheads not to have seen the benefits of the Dar/Bagamoyo options. It is simply because it is a lot more inneficient to do it. Inefficiency costs money - even a non-economist knows this! What anyone should have noted is Ndii's suggestion about using the World Bank as a cheaper model. One needs to look at the result of the dalliance with the World Bank on the Nairobi Southern Bypass that was to be built by Strabag. The fact that we have some oriental company working on it is suggestive of the difficulties of working with the world bank. So cheap is not necessarily the best route to take!
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Post by mank on Feb 17, 2014 18:39:49 GMT 3
The flaws of Ndii's arguments... 1. The port will by time of completion of MSA-NBI line be moving more than the 1.4 million TEUs he reckons are required to make the railway line pay for itself. 2. The current duration of cargo transit MSA-NBI is 29.8 Hours whilst the 'high speed rail will deliver the cargo to Nairobi in circa 5 hours. 3. Current cost of road transport is estimated at just over US$ 1000. So give or take this at US$1400 by time of railway completion. 4. If we use his estimate of US$1000, then it would be a no brainer for anyone who wants to move cargo from Mombasa to Naitobi as it is cheaper and faster!! The scaremongering that we hear about Bagamoyo killng Mombasa is no more than that. One just needs to question by Rwanda and company still prefer the Kenya route to move their cargo despite it being longer than the Tanzania route. The Rwandese are not dunderheads not to have seen the benefits of the Dar/Bagamoyo options. It is simply because it is a lot more inneficient to do it. Inefficiency costs money - even a non-economist knows this! What anyone should have noted is Ndii's suggestion about using the World Bank as a cheaper model. One needs to look at the result of the dalliance with the World Bank on the Nairobi Southern Bypass that was to be built by Strabag. The fact that we have some oriental company working on it is suggestive of the difficulties of working with the world bank. So cheap is not necessarily the best route to take! I would agree with most of your analysis. My dissatisfaction with Ndii's work however remains that I have to trust him on sh120 billion turnover as he does not give me insight on its derivation. The 1.4 million TEUs is without persuasion when the sh120 billion is without persuasion. Economics is intolerant to "trust me" except when the sis is about one's altitude or behavior. As for the Bagamoyo scare, a sure way for Mombasa to lose to competition is to stop development. So if Bagamoyo is expanding, Kenya's winning strategy cannot be one of shyness to expansion. This gives more light to Njakip's observation that plans to expand Kenya's ports remains behind schedule ... Kenya should be careful ... If Tanzania stays ahead of Kenya on the expansion course, businesses that have always chosen Mombasa over Dar es Salaam might have no reason to stay with Mombasa once Bagamoyo opens. To better the chances of them not doing so, Kenya has to sweeten the Mombasa package. Competition is a must ... unless even Kenya wishes to start moving cargo through Bagamoyo.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 17, 2014 20:38:59 GMT 3
The scaremongering that we hear about Bagamoyo killng Mombasa is no more than that. One just needs to question by Rwanda and company still prefer the Kenya route to move their cargo despite it being longer than the Tanzania route. The Rwandese are not dunderheads not to have seen the benefits of the Dar/Bagamoyo options. It is simply because it is a lot more inneficient to do it. Inefficiency costs money - even a non-economist knows this! Yes, Kamalet. It does indeed appear that the Rwandese are not dunderheads. Keeping mind that this is before Bagamoyo port becomes operational .... I can't vouch for its accuracy, but the article that I "linked" above has this to say: "Freight companies said Burundi and Rwanda were likely to divert most of their business to Tanzania. Rwanda had already begun doing so."THE ECONOMIST too claims that: " Nonetheless, Dar es Salaam is increasingly claiming market share off Mombasa. Over the past five years, total volumes handled by Dar es Salaam have grown at a faster rate, it has overtaken Mombasa as the port of choice for Rwandan cargo, and it has increased its share of Burundian cargo." country.eiu.com/(F(TJT_nj9Lo1MX7i5_fdMmSnMMpP_RT68NFIC-DdiXvK0L_4uca9AxFsN4zORq6jmtR7_ECE83e42UNIA35cKnRVSS6Iia4OhZLhi_82__z88Is1KGIt2WeIdldnuck-PDJhZQ5Y0Mphv8ylY7MVQVF196DLstiutADKyEj4PWz1g5e2-x0))/article.aspx?articleid=1240890308&Country=Congo%20(Democratic%20Republic)&topic=EconomyBut let's hear it directly from the horses themselves: The Central Corridor TTFA describes itself as " The Central Corridor Transit Transport Facilitation Agency (TTFA) is a multilateral Agency formed by 5 countries of Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda which form the Member-States as cooperation among the Stakeholders that comprise of both the Public and Private Sectors" They should know a thing or two about such things. So what do they have to say? This: "Dar es Salaam edges Mombasa in cargo handling:
It means some importers who used Mombasa, Kenya, have diverted delivery to Dar es Salaam. Transport experts attribute the increase to improvement in the state of roads ... Compared to Mombasa, the Kenya Port Authority (KPA) handled 18.9% less or 552,449 tonnes of cargo for Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and the DRC in the nine months to September last year. As a result, the Mombasa Port relies on Uganda and South Sudan cargoes ... Kenyan analysts are worried that once the Dar Port reforms being implemented are completed by end of first half this year, Mombasa Kenya could lose even more business" www.centralcorridor-ttfa.org/aboutNot to be left out of the scaremongering, UNCTAD claims that: "The new port is good news for the landlocked neighbouring countries of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, which will have a choice of importing and exporting either through Mombasa, Kenya, or Dar es Salaam. The development may negatively affect Mombasa, as shipping lines may prefer to call directly at Bagamoyo new port."unctad.org/en/publicationslibrary/rmt2013_en.pdfAnd so on. But they could just be lying, are plain wrong, etc. Me, myself, I think Kenyans should sleep easy, no matter what happens to the south.
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Post by b6k on Feb 17, 2014 23:32:53 GMT 3
WANT STANDARD GAUGE RAILWAY LINE? ALAREADY HAVE A RAILWAY LINE? CONSIDER AMERICAN APPROACH.The solution there was the direct and obvious one: pick up one rail and move it a few inches to the left. southern.railfan.net/ties/1966/66-8/gauge.html" And in the South, plans were nearing completion for one of the most complex and dramatic two-day periods in railroading history -- changing the gauge of an estimated 11,500 miles of track." ... " In effect, the pressures of free competition had provided a catalyst, and the stage was set for changing the gauge of practically every road in the South-a change that, ultimately, would be accomplished in less than 36 hours."Here's how they did it: " Differing in some specifics between the various roads, plans were worked out in minute detail for reducing the width between rails, and between the wheels, by 3 inches.
Only one rail would be moved in on the day of the change, so inside spikes were hammered into place at the new gauge width well in advance of the change, leaving only the need for a few blows of the sledgehammer once the rail was placed. As May 31 drew near, some spikes were pulled from the rail that was to be moved in order to reduce as much as possible the time required to release the rail from its old position". They also had the little problem of axels on rolling stock. That was solved this way: " To shorten the axles of rolling stock and motive power that could not be prepared in advance, lathes and crews were stationed at various points throughout the South to accomplish the work concurrently with the change in track gauge."... " In less than three days, standard-gauge trains were serving the South. 'The work was done economically,' an article in the Journal of the Association of Engineering Societies pointed out, 'and so quietly that the public hardly realized it was in progress'."
(By now, it is obvious that "quietly" won't apply in any Kenyan case.)
All that was in 1886!
A drawing of the work in progress, some men hammering and others doing the moving-a-little .... somebody in Kenya should see a prophecy in the outline of the drawing!
Otishotish, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't your "elbow grease" solution as per above diagram relevant for an already existing railroad track? Is the proposed SGR an overhaul (as per your illustration) of an existing railroad track or the construction of a totally brand new one? If it is only an overhaul of the pre-existing narrow gauge tracks laid by the mzungu in the by-gone era of the "Lunatic Express" (the steam locomotive aka the "choo choo train") which I highly doubt, can the current tracks that support old style locomotives that crawl at 40 Kph really be manually overhauled (as per your illustration) to support modern trains that are expected to move at 160 Kph for passenger trains & 120 Kph for freight trains? Kindly advise...
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Post by omundu on Feb 18, 2014 0:40:10 GMT 3
My humble take on the main problem we need to tackle as kenyans on this cross border transport. But first, a rejoinder to some of Kamale's points:
Yes, the upgraded port may be able to handle 1.4 million by completion as you state but currently, rail transport accounts for a meagre five percent of goods transported from the port. The rest use the road network. The increase in mombasa port handling capacity does not automatically mean the numbers will use the rail network.
The problem is not even the hours to transport cargo or people. RVR actually stated that goods from mombasa to nairobi take between six and eight hours (I think I read it on their website) thanks to their 'improved' efficiency.
The main problem is us kenyans and our lack of foresight and proper management/maintenance systems. Just have a look at the thika highway if you doubt me. The main issue we need to tackle first is the delays and congestion at the port. That won't be curtailed just by throwing money at new facilities.
The reason for the delays and congestion is corruption and further delays at informal stops and checkpoints. Very cumbersome clearance procedures helped in no small part by multi agency demands. There is no streamlined system and the agencies keep shifting blame amongst each other.
Even with a new rail system, we are not guaranteed that the problems will go away nor the investment will pay for itself. That seems to be the gist of Ndii's argument and at least he has come up with something to explain himself. All we need is for the uhuruto crew to come up with a counter argument with numbers proving otherwise so we can poke holes in them the same way we are doing to Ndii's arguments. The onus is not on Ndii. It is on the Government to prove to us common folk. But we are met with the L "Mta do ? " Silence.
Take RVR for example. It is a private entity that (irregardless of its many issues) was mandated to improve rail transport but our network is still carrying only at half yearly capacity. Infact, under them, cargo transport by rail went down from 15 to 3 percent. Doesn't that tell us that we need to look deeper than just splashing money into white elephants and bottomless pockets ? One of the reasons RVR gave for the below par performance was high tariffs by the Government leaving them with little money for infrastructure improvement.
What I am trying to say is there are still a lot of un answered questions about this whole debacle.
My father used to say that if you want to eat, don't eat like the hyena who munches on everything, including bones in one seating, leaving nothing for tomorrow. Eat like the leopard, it carries its food up the tree for safety and eats slowly, leaving some meat on the bones for the next day. You are never sure if the herds will be easy to get the next day.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 18, 2014 6:04:43 GMT 3
Otishotish, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't your "elbow grease" solution as per above diagram relevant for an already existing railroad track? Is the proposed SGR an overhaul (as per your illustration) of an existing railroad track or the construction of a totally brand new one? Yes, it is. Does Kenya have "an already existing railroad track"? Can it be refurbished and "overhauled" to standard gauge? Why or why not? I am unclear as to what you "highly doubt". The date given for the change of 11,500 miles of track is 1886. Many would agree that that's a "by-gone" era. Have those folks since then laid out a new 11,500 miles of track? It would be helpful to know why you "highly doubt". I am unable to "kindly advise" on anything, as I am myself trying to understand the both the current system Kenyan system and the proposed SGR ones. But ... It seems to be the case that standard gauge can support better higher speeds and heavier loads than narrow gauge. To that extent, we can agree that standards gauge is good. Great stuff that all should have. What I am trying to understand is why getting standard gauge in Kenya requires building a completely new line. Pointing that the SGR is a "the construction of a totally brand new one" whereas my example is of the overhaul of an existing line doesn't help me, given that I am seeking to understand why a "totally brand new one" is being built instead of overhauling an existing one. By the way, your chosen speeds are not particularly high for "modern trains". Is the implication that the speeds you give can only be achieved by moving to a much wider gauge, the standard gauge? Not so. For example, in Japan there are trains that, on a matatu-like basis, run at 110-130 kph, on narrow gauge (3.5 feet) tracks that were built who knows when.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 18, 2014 9:09:04 GMT 3
Today I had some time to kill, so I thought I would understand all this SGR business and how it will help the East African region. I started with the EAC webpages on infrastructure: www.eac.int/infrastructure/index.phpA learned quite a few things. East Africa Railways Master PlanIn 2007, the EAC asked a Canadian consulting company, CPCS Transcom, to help them develop a "master plan" for their railway system. The plan was produced, and you can locate it by following the link above. According to the "Final Report" of the plan, CPCS thinks there is no economic justification for building new standard-gauge railway lines. And they point out that if standard gauge is required, it would be far cheaper to do it on existing railway lines. They note that in 2010, freight traffic in EAC rail was less than half of what it was in 1970 and that the most optimistic growth up to 2030 (a) can be supported by exiting lines and (b) cannot support the conversion to standard gauge. Speed (mentioned by b6k) and axle loads? They point out how those can be accommodated on existing lines up to 2030. An interesting note in some of the CPCS material: " The capacity of the line from Mombasa to Kenya would be over 10 m tonnes per year if average speed could be increased to 50kph." In fact, for the Kenyan case, they argue that optimistic growth up to 2030 will for up to 7.5 millions tons per year and that the existing lines if used properly should be able to handle up to 30 million tons per year. ( Note to b6k: they claim that can be achieved with speeds of 60 kph.) Here are the exact lines from one of their presentation slides (also at the link above): * Yes it would be nice to start with a brand new railway, but there are no interconnection issues.
* The narrow gauge system in South Africa handles over 200 million tonnes per year at world class levels of efficiency.
* Long distance, high speed passenger systems are extremely expensive to operate and will require massive ongoing subsidies.
* For freight, the rehabilitation and investment in the existing system is the most economic option.Japan Also Has A WordApparently some Japanese expert was at hand to give a presentation on his country's experience. His slides have two conclusions. One is on the importance of maintenance, and the other says (reproduced exactly from the link above): * If the existing railway structure (ballast, sleepers, rail tracks, etc.) and the rolling stocks are upgraded, narrow gauge can achieve significantly high transport capacity in East Africa.
* Gauge issue cannot be the single determining factor of transport capacity. OthersI also read a bunch of other stuff elsewhere. On that basis, it would be very interesting to see the figures that Kenya is using for its optimistic venture.
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Post by omundu on Feb 18, 2014 10:51:45 GMT 3
Today I had some time to kill, so I thought I would understand all this SGR business and how it will help the East African region. I started with the EAC webpages on infrastructure: www.eac.int/infrastructure/index.phpA learned quite a few things. East Africa Railways Master PlanIn 2007, the EAC asked a Canadian consulting company, CPCS Transcom, to help them develop a "master plan" for their railway system. The plan was produced, and you can locate it by following the link above. According to the "Final Report" of the plan, CPCS thinks there is no economic justification for building new standard-gauge railway lines. And they point out that if standard gauge is required, it would be far cheaper to do it on existing railway lines. They note that in 2010, freight traffic in EAC rail was less than half of what it was in 1970 and that the most optimistic growth up to 2030 (a) can be supported by exiting lines and (b) cannot support the conversion to standard gauge. Speed (mentioned by b6k) and axle loads? They point out how those can be accommodated on existing lines up to 2030. An interesting note in some of the CPCS material: " The capacity of the line from Mombasa to Kenya would be over 10 m tonnes per year if average speed could be increased to 50kph." In fact, for the Kenyan case, they argue that optimistic growth up to 2030 will for up to 7.5 millions tons per year and that the existing lines if used properly should be able to handle up to 30 million tons per year. ( Note to b6k: they claim that can be achieved with speeds of 60 kph.) Here are the exact lines from one of their presentation slides (also at the link above): * Yes it would be nice to start with a brand new railway, but there are no interconnection issues.
* The narrow gauge system in South Africa handles over 200 million tonnes per year at world class levels of efficiency.
* Long distance, high speed passenger systems are extremely expensive to operate and will require massive ongoing subsidies.
* For freight, the rehabilitation and investment in the existing system is the most economic option.Japan Also Has A WordApparently some Japanese expert was at hand to give a presentation on his country's experience. His slides have two conclusions. One is on the importance of maintenance, and the other says (reproduced exactly from the link above): * If the existing railway structure (ballast, sleepers, rail tracks, etc.) and the rolling stocks are upgraded, narrow gauge can achieve significantly high transport capacity in East Africa.
* Gauge issue cannot be the single determining factor of transport capacity. OthersI also read a bunch of other stuff elsewhere. On that basis, it would be very interesting to see the figures that Kenya is using for its optimistic venture. Thanks for the links Otish. And also the previous link on how others have easily transformed to standard gauge. I checked on Indias railway system and was amazed at how efficiency in management (always striving for modern management systems)has made them the premier transport system in India and the worlds second largest rail network under one management. This, while still using the colonial inherited rail system similar to ours but tweaking systems here and there, eg computerising at the ports and electronic systems etc. In fact, they only started considering the standard gauge in one or two areas last year. They will do this simply by converting the existing lines to standard gauge and getting modern trains. www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/view_section.jsp?lang=0&id=0,1
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Post by b6k on Feb 18, 2014 12:00:18 GMT 3
Otishotish, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't your "elbow grease" solution as per above diagram relevant for an already existing railroad track? Is the proposed SGR an overhaul (as per your illustration) of an existing railroad track or the construction of a totally brand new one? Yes, it is. Does Kenya have "an already existing railroad track"? Can it be refurbished and "overhauled" to standard gauge? Why or why not? I am unclear as to what you "highly doubt". The date given for the change of 11,500 miles of track is 1886. Many would agree that that's a "by-gone" era. Have those folks since then laid out a new 11,500 miles of track? It would be helpful to know why you "highly doubt". I am unable to "kindly advise" on anything, as I am myself trying to understand the both the current system Kenyan system and the proposed SGR ones. But ... It seems to be the case that standard gauge can support better higher speeds and heavier loads than narrow gauge. To that extent, we can agree that standards gauge is good. Great stuff that all should have. What I am trying to understand is why getting standard gauge in Kenya requires building a completely new line. Pointing that the SGR is a "the construction of a totally brand new one" whereas my example is of the overhaul of an existing line doesn't help me, given that I am seeking to understand why a "totally brand new one" is being built instead of overhauling an existing one. By the way, your chosen speeds are not particularly high for "modern trains". Is the implication that the speeds you give can only be achieved by moving to a much wider gauge, the standard gauge? Not so. For example, in Japan there are trains that, on a matatu-like basis, run at 110-130 kph, on narrow gauge (3.5 feet) tracks that were built who knows when. Otishotish, I agree with you that the proposed speeds aren't all that fast. Wading through the Kenya Vision 2030 website I even found them quoting slower speeds (80 kph for freight and 120 for passenger carriages). Vision 2030Surprisingly they are silent on the benefits! That said, I personally wouldn't feel comfortable sitting in a Kenyan train hurtling at the maximum 180 kph proposed in a Kenya Railways in-house magazine. There are too many things that can go wrong at such speeds given large swathes of the railway track may end up traversing areas where wild animals roam or nomads graze their large herds. The potential for derailments could be quite real. News Rail Sept 2012 hereSince we don't know the design of the new rail it would be difficult to gauge whether the project is overpriced or not. For instance you may find sections of it are raised to avoid the potential of wild animal strikes/hits that can lead to derailments and other accidents. Why you ask are they not simply overhauling the existing rail? You sort of answered yourself somewhere above when you spoke of the specter of competition from our neighbors to the south breathing down our necks. TZ will soon have 4 ports, we have one but hope to have 2 if Lamu goes online. They have already got some of their tracks laid out in new SGR format, thanks to help from "Kung-fu" (TZ actually has much closer historical ties with China than anything KE will ever dream of). So the infrastructure after SGR goes live in KE would look something like this: How that can be bad for the nation, I don't know as it seems to increase the footprint of railroad tracks, at least on paper. Imagine the spill over effect to the small towns connected by the new rail system, potential jobs created, ease of trade, etc. Also creating new tracks can mitigate future problems as we saw during PEV when the railroad track was uprooted in Kibera by simply avoiding construction in highly populated areas. My concerns with the SGR is whether it will be used as a Jakaswanga-esque Hoover Dam type project to create jobs for Kenyans or will just be another avenue to allow the Chinese to dump their numerous prisoners into KE as a form of cheap labour in a macabre re-enactment of the coolies coming to Kenya. Are we criticizing the build simply because it's perceived to be Uhuru's baby or are there genuine concerns that it will be too costly for the nation. Without anything similar to compare to in terms of build costs, the jury's still out on this one...
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 18, 2014 12:14:32 GMT 3
Omundu:
A similar situation exists in Japan. About 90% of their railway lines are narrow gauge, some of it quite old. Almost all of the standard gauge tracks are for the "bullet trains", which are all passenger trains. What they have done is spruce up and properly maintain even very old lines. For example, their oldest line is a 590 km line that was built between 1872 and 1889 and is still in use today (by freight trains and overnight/sleeper trains).
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Post by b6k on Feb 18, 2014 12:15:38 GMT 3
Today I had some time to kill, so I thought I would understand all this SGR business and how it will help the East African region. I started with the EAC webpages on infrastructure: www.eac.int/infrastructure/index.phpA learned quite a few things. East Africa Railways Master PlanIn 2007, the EAC asked a Canadian consulting company, CPCS Transcom, to help them develop a "master plan" for their railway system. The plan was produced, and you can locate it by following the link above. According to the "Final Report" of the plan, CPCS thinks there is no economic justification for building new standard-gauge railway lines. And they point out that if standard gauge is required, it would be far cheaper to do it on existing railway lines. They note that in 2010, freight traffic in EAC rail was less than half of what it was in 1970 and that the most optimistic growth up to 2030 (a) can be supported by exiting lines and (b) cannot support the conversion to standard gauge. Speed (mentioned by b6k) and axle loads? They point out how those can be accommodated on existing lines up to 2030. An interesting note in some of the CPCS material: " The capacity of the line from Mombasa to Kenya would be over 10 m tonnes per year if average speed could be increased to 50kph." In fact, for the Kenyan case, they argue that optimistic growth up to 2030 will for up to 7.5 millions tons per year and that the existing lines if used properly should be able to handle up to 30 million tons per year. ( Note to b6k: they claim that can be achieved with speeds of 60 kph.) Here are the exact lines from one of their presentation slides (also at the link above): * Yes it would be nice to start with a brand new railway, but there are no interconnection issues.
* The narrow gauge system in South Africa handles over 200 million tonnes per year at world class levels of efficiency.
* Long distance, high speed passenger systems are extremely expensive to operate and will require massive ongoing subsidies.
* For freight, the rehabilitation and investment in the existing system is the most economic option.Japan Also Has A WordApparently some Japanese expert was at hand to give a presentation on his country's experience. His slides have two conclusions. One is on the importance of maintenance, and the other says (reproduced exactly from the link above): * If the existing railway structure (ballast, sleepers, rail tracks, etc.) and the rolling stocks are upgraded, narrow gauge can achieve significantly high transport capacity in East Africa.
* Gauge issue cannot be the single determining factor of transport capacity. OthersI also read a bunch of other stuff elsewhere. On that basis, it would be very interesting to see the figures that Kenya is using for its optimistic venture. Otishotish, I see you're still insisting that we should stick to our existing infrastructure whilst forgetting there's a whole bunch of opportunities opening up in the north of the country. Granted, the LAPPSET project has hit a setback with the now resolved (I hope) situation in South Sudan but there's still very good reason for us to build up logistics capacity in the northern corridor. As much as we can have goods coming in from the port of Lamu, we can also have goods going out. The oil from Turkana is expected to be online circa 2016. The massive water deposit should be tapped into sooner than that. Wheat from Laikipia can go to market faster as would the numerous horticultural products grown in the area. It still makes sense to have the project built as envisaged (rail, road, pipeline <oil & water>). Besides moving cargo to the railroads will save our roads & probably save lives...
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Post by podp on Feb 18, 2014 13:08:16 GMT 3
Today I had some time to kill, so I thought I would understand all this SGR business and how it will help the East African region. I started with the EAC webpages on infrastructure: www.eac.int/infrastructure/index.phpA learned quite a few things. East Africa Railways Master PlanJapan Also Has A Word* Gauge issue cannot be the single determining factor of transport capacity. [/i] OthersI also read a bunch of other stuff elsewhere. On that basis, it would be very interesting to see the figures that Kenya is using for its optimistic venture. [/quote] Otishotish is really misleading us. in most if not the whole of Europe and Asia plus USA what is in use if of low quality is the SGR or if for speed trains the broad gauge rail line. Broad-gauge railways use a track gauge (distance between the rails) greater than the standard gauge of 1,435 mm or 1.5 m (almost). LAPPSET should not be below SGR and preferably broad
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