Post by jakaswanga on Sept 26, 2014 20:52:01 GMT 3
This is serious, MANK! These statistical upgrades of yours which induce in me a 'placebo' feeling! this magical word RebaSe: Am looking for you with a machete!
God-amn you amigo! You readers in economics are charlatan shamans! double-timing impostors and creeps worse than astrologers who read stars and pronounce futures! You guys have models crazier than agony-aunts and waganga-wa-kienyeji and madaktari-wa-mapendos found doing roaring business around slums of the republic, collecting live oddities for fees!
I am looking for you around the city with a machete, and I am in a foul mood! We are not amigos anymore, until you make me see the sense in the following three articles. Read them carefully first. Find me the needle in the haystack I am missing so that they all can compute! As it is, I find lots of mutual exclusivity! –-It is your call, BiL!
1. REBASE:
Nigeria did one and went 89% up, skating past a stationary South Africa, hitherto in the lead in the continent. We now have done ours, and our GDP is $55 bn,up from 44. 16 years ahead of schedule, Uhuru Kenyatta, respect, has hit the bull's eye. MIC. Middle income country direct!
2. IPSOS FIGURES: who is my daddy now, Mank!? eeh! rebase or synovate?
FULL ARTICLES BELOW.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich. Kenya is set to be classified as a middle-income country, 16 years ahead of schedule, with the release of revised figures for the economy. FILE PHOTO | NATION MEDIA GROUP.
www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-joins-middle-income-economy-status-on-Tuesday/-/996/2465256/-/880adn/-/index.html
www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenyans-Food-Hunger-Ipsos-Survey/-/1056/2459244/-/3p62k7/-/index.html
www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-warns-Kenya-on-cash-use/-/996/2465292/-/uruwqlz/-/index.html
God-amn you amigo! You readers in economics are charlatan shamans! double-timing impostors and creeps worse than astrologers who read stars and pronounce futures! You guys have models crazier than agony-aunts and waganga-wa-kienyeji and madaktari-wa-mapendos found doing roaring business around slums of the republic, collecting live oddities for fees!
I am looking for you around the city with a machete, and I am in a foul mood! We are not amigos anymore, until you make me see the sense in the following three articles. Read them carefully first. Find me the needle in the haystack I am missing so that they all can compute! As it is, I find lots of mutual exclusivity! –-It is your call, BiL!
1. REBASE:
Nigeria did one and went 89% up, skating past a stationary South Africa, hitherto in the lead in the continent. We now have done ours, and our GDP is $55 bn,up from 44. 16 years ahead of schedule, Uhuru Kenyatta, respect, has hit the bull's eye. MIC. Middle income country direct!
2. IPSOS FIGURES:
The report, which was released on Friday by Ipsos, showed that even salaried Kenyans were feeling the pinch as the cost of living rises and incomes stagnate.
The report shows that 43 per cent of Kenyans earn less than Sh10,000 while 31 per cent earn less than Sh25,000.
Only four per cent earn more than Sh40,000.
With 93 per cent of Kenyan adults earning Sh40,000 and below, the report confirmed a recent analysis by Standard Bank that estimated the number of low-income households in Kenya at 92 per cent.
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
The report shows that 43 per cent of Kenyans earn less than Sh10,000 while 31 per cent earn less than Sh25,000.
Only four per cent earn more than Sh40,000.
With 93 per cent of Kenyan adults earning Sh40,000 and below, the report confirmed a recent analysis by Standard Bank that estimated the number of low-income households in Kenya at 92 per cent.
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
FULL ARTICLES BELOW.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich. Kenya is set to be classified as a middle-income country, 16 years ahead of schedule, with the release of revised figures for the economy. FILE PHOTO | NATION MEDIA GROUP.
www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-joins-middle-income-economy-status-on-Tuesday/-/996/2465256/-/880adn/-/index.html
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Kenya joins middle income economy status on Tuesday
In Summary
According to Citibank head of markets Ignatius Chicha, Kenya’s new status as a middle-class economy will give the government more room for borrowing for infrastructure spending given a bigger capacity to absorb more funds.
Analysts say new class may mean very little to the life of the man on the street given the high cost of living and income disparities that have seen the poor get more desperate.
University of Nairobi development economist Samuel Nyandemo said that whereas the economy will improve, the life of the man on the street will not get any better.
There are also concerns that Kenya could lose access to concessional loans from international finance and development institutions when a rebasing of the country’s economy elevates it into middle income status.
By JOSHUA MASINDE
Kenya is set to be classified as a middle income country, 16 years ahead of schedule, with the release of revised figures for the economy.
At an event to be witnessed by both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund officials on Tuesday, government officials will release new economic data revising the country's current wealth by 20 per cent and effectively lifting the nation to middle-income status ahead of 2030 target.
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Kenya will join Nigeria in releasing revised economic growth data. The latter rebased its GDP figures in April, overtaking South Africa as the continent’s number one economy. Nigeria’s rebasing resulted in an 89 per cent expansion.
Last year, the World Bank estimated Kenya’s GDP — the market value of all goods and services that the country produces in a year — to be Sh3.9 trillion ($44 billion).
Rebasing of the economy by more than a fifth puts the country at a GDP of Sh4.7 trillion ($52.8 billion), raising the per capita income to Sh105,975 ($1,190), up from the current Sh87,936 ($988), and well above $1,036 (Sh89,821) set by the World Bank for middle-income nations.
According to Citibank head of markets Ignatius Chicha, Kenya’s new status as a middle-class economy will give the government more room for borrowing for infrastructure spending given a bigger capacity to absorb more funds.
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
He said increased spending in infrastructure will stimulate productive sectors of the economy and this will result in a trickle-down effect that will help improve the living status of the poor.
“If the GDP grows to say $55 billion, it will give the government room for more borrowing as the GDP-to-debt ratio will decline,” Mr Chicha said.
Some analysts, however, say the economic status of most Kenyans may not get any better even with the new status.
University of Nairobi development economist Samuel Nyandemo said that whereas the economy will improve, the life of the man on the street will not get any better.
He cited the high cost of living and income inequalities that have seen the poor sink further into poverty and the richer become even richer.
“The issue here is the unfair distribution of the national cake. Even with a bigger economy, the rich will continue being rich and the poor will continue being poor,” Dr Nyandemo told the Nation.
ACCESS TO CHEAP LOANS
There are also concerns that Kenya could lose access to concessional loans from international finance and development institutions when a rebasing of the country’s economy elevates it into middle-income status.
The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) said last week in a report that rebasing of Kenya’s GDP and pushing the country into middle-income status will take away access to concessional loans and grants.
Low-income countries enjoy highly concessional loans and grants to aid in their development agenda.
Concessional loans carry lower interest rates and have a longer repayment period compared with commercial advances, while grants are non-refundable funds given out by countries or organisations.
The PBO said that this would result in increased pressure on expenditure demands on locally raised revenue.
Kenya joins middle income economy status on Tuesday
In Summary
According to Citibank head of markets Ignatius Chicha, Kenya’s new status as a middle-class economy will give the government more room for borrowing for infrastructure spending given a bigger capacity to absorb more funds.
Analysts say new class may mean very little to the life of the man on the street given the high cost of living and income disparities that have seen the poor get more desperate.
University of Nairobi development economist Samuel Nyandemo said that whereas the economy will improve, the life of the man on the street will not get any better.
There are also concerns that Kenya could lose access to concessional loans from international finance and development institutions when a rebasing of the country’s economy elevates it into middle income status.
By JOSHUA MASINDE
Kenya is set to be classified as a middle income country, 16 years ahead of schedule, with the release of revised figures for the economy.
At an event to be witnessed by both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund officials on Tuesday, government officials will release new economic data revising the country's current wealth by 20 per cent and effectively lifting the nation to middle-income status ahead of 2030 target.
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Kenya will join Nigeria in releasing revised economic growth data. The latter rebased its GDP figures in April, overtaking South Africa as the continent’s number one economy. Nigeria’s rebasing resulted in an 89 per cent expansion.
Last year, the World Bank estimated Kenya’s GDP — the market value of all goods and services that the country produces in a year — to be Sh3.9 trillion ($44 billion).
Rebasing of the economy by more than a fifth puts the country at a GDP of Sh4.7 trillion ($52.8 billion), raising the per capita income to Sh105,975 ($1,190), up from the current Sh87,936 ($988), and well above $1,036 (Sh89,821) set by the World Bank for middle-income nations.
According to Citibank head of markets Ignatius Chicha, Kenya’s new status as a middle-class economy will give the government more room for borrowing for infrastructure spending given a bigger capacity to absorb more funds.
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
He said increased spending in infrastructure will stimulate productive sectors of the economy and this will result in a trickle-down effect that will help improve the living status of the poor.
“If the GDP grows to say $55 billion, it will give the government room for more borrowing as the GDP-to-debt ratio will decline,” Mr Chicha said.
Some analysts, however, say the economic status of most Kenyans may not get any better even with the new status.
University of Nairobi development economist Samuel Nyandemo said that whereas the economy will improve, the life of the man on the street will not get any better.
He cited the high cost of living and income inequalities that have seen the poor sink further into poverty and the richer become even richer.
“The issue here is the unfair distribution of the national cake. Even with a bigger economy, the rich will continue being rich and the poor will continue being poor,” Dr Nyandemo told the Nation.
ACCESS TO CHEAP LOANS
There are also concerns that Kenya could lose access to concessional loans from international finance and development institutions when a rebasing of the country’s economy elevates it into middle-income status.
The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) said last week in a report that rebasing of Kenya’s GDP and pushing the country into middle-income status will take away access to concessional loans and grants.
Low-income countries enjoy highly concessional loans and grants to aid in their development agenda.
Concessional loans carry lower interest rates and have a longer repayment period compared with commercial advances, while grants are non-refundable funds given out by countries or organisations.
The PBO said that this would result in increased pressure on expenditure demands on locally raised revenue.
www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenyans-Food-Hunger-Ipsos-Survey/-/1056/2459244/-/3p62k7/-/index.html
Friday, September 19, 2014
Shame as a third of Kenyans go hungry
Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Dr Tom Wolf addressing a media briefing on the latest social, political, economic and cultural barometer survey on September 19, 2014. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE NATION MEDIA GROUP
In Summary
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
About 36 per cent of those interviewed responded in the affirmative when asked if they or any member of their household had recently gone to sleep on an empty stomach.
By NGARE KARIUKI
One in every three Kenyan households has someone who sometimes “goes to sleep hungry” because they cannot afford a meal, a new study has revealed.
Most Kenyans also feel that things are generally going wrong, a finding which should get Jubilee strategists thinking about how to get their positive message out more and to ensure it is believed.
The report, which was released on Friday by Ipsos, showed that even salaried Kenyans were feeling the pinch as the cost of living rises and incomes stagnate.
The report shows that 43 per cent of Kenyans earn less than Sh10,000 while 31 per cent earn less than Sh25,000.
Only four per cent earn more than Sh40,000.
With 93 per cent of Kenyan adults earning Sh40,000 and below, the report confirmed a recent analysis by Standard Bank that estimated the number of low-income households in Kenya at 92 per cent.
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
A sample of 2,059 adults was interviewed in the 47 counties between August 24 and September 1, with an error margin of two at 95 per cent degree of confidence.
About 36 per cent of those interviewed responded in the affirmative when asked if they or any member of their household had recently gone to sleep on an empty stomach.
A similar trend was observed when the population was divided between urban and rural areas, with 34 per cent of urban residents and 37 per cent in rural areas saying they had at one time or another gone to bed hungry.
More women (38 per cent) than men (34) also reported going to bed hungry due to financial difficulties.
The sample was framed in accordance with the demographic profile obtained from the 2009 Population Census and was therefore considered a reliable representation of the 19.4 million adults recorded in the census.
ECONOMIC HARDSHIP
Majority of residents in Nyanza (59 per cent), Coast (57) and western (57) regions reported that they had skipped an evening meal due to economic hardship.
Coast and Nyanza regions also recorded the highest number of people (86 per cent each) who felt that things had increasingly worsened since the Jubilee administration came to power.
Central region recorded the most positive feedback, with 58 per cent of respondents saying things were going in the right direction and only one in 10 reported occasionally going to bed hungry.
“Among those who are poor, that is, households earning less than Sh10,000, almost half of them say someone in their house sometimes sleeps hungry. This means people have more urgent financial obligations on their incomes,” Ipsos lead researcher Tom Wolf explained.
Though corruption and poor leadership have in the past been cited as major drawbacks in the state of the nation, the two factors failed to make the top-three slots, with only about 10 per cent of Kenyans citing them as serious problems.
The majority of Kenyans (59 per cent) also feel their personal economic conditions have worsened in the past three months while only 19 per cent see an improvement.
The report, which is Ipsos Kenya’s third quarter Social, Political, Economic and Cultural (SPEC) Barometer survey, categorised the results according to whether respondents were affiliated to Jubilee or Cord coalitions.
A large majority of Cord supporters (80 per cent) said they believed things are generally going wrong. “The fact that different ethnic groups in Kenya live in different parts of the country helps us to understand why issue-based politics cannot be separated from ethnic divisions in politics,” said Mr Wolf.
Jubilee supporters seemed divided, with 43 per cent saying things were going in the right direction while 40 per cent said things were going south, and 17 per cent sitting on the fence.
Despite 43 per cent of Jubilee supporters feeling things were generally going in the right direction at the national level, 28 per cent said their personal and family economic condition had worsened in the last three months.
www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenyans-Food-Hunger-Ipsos-Survey/-/1056/2459244/-/3p62k7/-/index.html
Shame as a third of Kenyans go hungry
Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Dr Tom Wolf addressing a media briefing on the latest social, political, economic and cultural barometer survey on September 19, 2014. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE NATION MEDIA GROUP
In Summary
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
About 36 per cent of those interviewed responded in the affirmative when asked if they or any member of their household had recently gone to sleep on an empty stomach.
By NGARE KARIUKI
One in every three Kenyan households has someone who sometimes “goes to sleep hungry” because they cannot afford a meal, a new study has revealed.
Most Kenyans also feel that things are generally going wrong, a finding which should get Jubilee strategists thinking about how to get their positive message out more and to ensure it is believed.
The report, which was released on Friday by Ipsos, showed that even salaried Kenyans were feeling the pinch as the cost of living rises and incomes stagnate.
The report shows that 43 per cent of Kenyans earn less than Sh10,000 while 31 per cent earn less than Sh25,000.
Only four per cent earn more than Sh40,000.
With 93 per cent of Kenyan adults earning Sh40,000 and below, the report confirmed a recent analysis by Standard Bank that estimated the number of low-income households in Kenya at 92 per cent.
High cost of living, insecurity and unemployment were cited in that order as the most serious problems facing the country.
A sample of 2,059 adults was interviewed in the 47 counties between August 24 and September 1, with an error margin of two at 95 per cent degree of confidence.
About 36 per cent of those interviewed responded in the affirmative when asked if they or any member of their household had recently gone to sleep on an empty stomach.
A similar trend was observed when the population was divided between urban and rural areas, with 34 per cent of urban residents and 37 per cent in rural areas saying they had at one time or another gone to bed hungry.
More women (38 per cent) than men (34) also reported going to bed hungry due to financial difficulties.
The sample was framed in accordance with the demographic profile obtained from the 2009 Population Census and was therefore considered a reliable representation of the 19.4 million adults recorded in the census.
ECONOMIC HARDSHIP
Majority of residents in Nyanza (59 per cent), Coast (57) and western (57) regions reported that they had skipped an evening meal due to economic hardship.
Coast and Nyanza regions also recorded the highest number of people (86 per cent each) who felt that things had increasingly worsened since the Jubilee administration came to power.
Central region recorded the most positive feedback, with 58 per cent of respondents saying things were going in the right direction and only one in 10 reported occasionally going to bed hungry.
“Among those who are poor, that is, households earning less than Sh10,000, almost half of them say someone in their house sometimes sleeps hungry. This means people have more urgent financial obligations on their incomes,” Ipsos lead researcher Tom Wolf explained.
Though corruption and poor leadership have in the past been cited as major drawbacks in the state of the nation, the two factors failed to make the top-three slots, with only about 10 per cent of Kenyans citing them as serious problems.
The majority of Kenyans (59 per cent) also feel their personal economic conditions have worsened in the past three months while only 19 per cent see an improvement.
The report, which is Ipsos Kenya’s third quarter Social, Political, Economic and Cultural (SPEC) Barometer survey, categorised the results according to whether respondents were affiliated to Jubilee or Cord coalitions.
A large majority of Cord supporters (80 per cent) said they believed things are generally going wrong. “The fact that different ethnic groups in Kenya live in different parts of the country helps us to understand why issue-based politics cannot be separated from ethnic divisions in politics,” said Mr Wolf.
Jubilee supporters seemed divided, with 43 per cent saying things were going in the right direction while 40 per cent said things were going south, and 17 per cent sitting on the fence.
Despite 43 per cent of Jubilee supporters feeling things were generally going in the right direction at the national level, 28 per cent said their personal and family economic condition had worsened in the last three months.
www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenyans-Food-Hunger-Ipsos-Survey/-/1056/2459244/-/3p62k7/-/index.html
www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-warns-Kenya-on-cash-use/-/996/2465292/-/uruwqlz/-/index.html
By John Njiru
Kenya may find it costly to refinance its Eurobond if it does not practise prudent fiscal spending, market experts have warned.
According to World Bank senior director (global practice on macroeconomics and fiscal management) Marcelo Giugale, the country will also have to float other bonds to avoid defaults and remain relevant in the international debt market.
“You have to issue more bonds to refinance the Eurobond. The country will have to be in the (sovereign bond) market periodically,” he said on Wednesday during a public lecture held at the University of Nairobi.
Mr Robert Bunyi of Mavuno Capital said the allure from international investors might drive up the cost of repayments if there is reckless usage of public finances. “The true test of the refinancing is prudence in spending; you have a good idea where you want to put the money, you have quick investment ideas, which deliver quick returns. Then Kenya will be rewarded,” he said.
HIGH YIELDS
African countries have turned to international bond investors due to the high yields as they seek to realise their development goals.
Kenya’s Eurobond, which was divided into $500 million five-year and a $1.5 billion 10-year tranches, raised $2 billion in June. The bond is to be refinanced at 5.875 per cent for the $500 million tranche and 6.875 per cent for the $1.5 billion bond.
The risky undertaking may see changes in interest rates if subjected to general market shocks in the sovereign market, especially the devastating Ebola nightmare. So far, 14 countries have issued sovereign bonds to bolster their cash-strapped coffers.
Kenya may find it costly to refinance its Eurobond if it does not practise prudent fiscal spending, market experts have warned.
According to World Bank senior director (global practice on macroeconomics and fiscal management) Marcelo Giugale, the country will also have to float other bonds to avoid defaults and remain relevant in the international debt market.
“You have to issue more bonds to refinance the Eurobond. The country will have to be in the (sovereign bond) market periodically,” he said on Wednesday during a public lecture held at the University of Nairobi.
Mr Robert Bunyi of Mavuno Capital said the allure from international investors might drive up the cost of repayments if there is reckless usage of public finances. “The true test of the refinancing is prudence in spending; you have a good idea where you want to put the money, you have quick investment ideas, which deliver quick returns. Then Kenya will be rewarded,” he said.
HIGH YIELDS
African countries have turned to international bond investors due to the high yields as they seek to realise their development goals.
Kenya’s Eurobond, which was divided into $500 million five-year and a $1.5 billion 10-year tranches, raised $2 billion in June. The bond is to be refinanced at 5.875 per cent for the $500 million tranche and 6.875 per cent for the $1.5 billion bond.
The risky undertaking may see changes in interest rates if subjected to general market shocks in the sovereign market, especially the devastating Ebola nightmare. So far, 14 countries have issued sovereign bonds to bolster their cash-strapped coffers.