Post by jakaswanga on Feb 14, 2016 15:49:46 GMT 3
THE MAGIC OF SOME STATISTICS and CENTRAL BANKS.
nb: (GABRIEL OMOLLO SINGS KEEP CHANGE MARA AND OTHER STORIES)
NB: Keep change mara is an old legendary song. I will trace it on youtube if possible and link it here. In my reading, or listening between the lines, Omollo Gabby outs the DOMESTIC rebase trick, how a lusty trickster uses ksh. 60 and the same ksh. 100 note, in those days a respectable mans monthly salary, to overthrow the weakly government of another man in the neighbourhood.) More about that song later. More about STATISTICAL REBASE later. First
AEGEAN BLUES.
I love to come back to current Greece, to understand a rigged game. Syriza, the leftist party which promised anti-austerity policies and a workable alternative in economic rule, capitulated without a shot. -WHY?
Why is the peoples support not enough to change national policies? especially policies which both the elite and the ruled recognise to be detrimental to national growth?
How powerful are capital's interests? -looking around the globe that power would appear Almighty!?
Where does this silent power to erase the people's and their leader's will in a so-called modern democracy, come from? Where does its invisible hands harvest this heaven-like autonomy?
Thinking about these helps me ponder the options of Muhammad Buhari. I take him to task in a different thread. This is the man on whose shoulders rests the salvation, or at least the hopes for the arrest of the decline of Nigeria. May be history has set him up for a Spartacus role. Then must we slaves fully understand Rome. And recognise, prepare for the chilling purpose of her matching columns of armour.
What can Buhari do, if the interests of the Nigerian people collide head on with the interests of big capita!?
Does he have any other option than capitulation like Sypras? Does Buhari have any other trick up his sleeve than pretence served in various PR doses of hoodwink? Can we write him off today and, as they used to say in Congo, do our own plan?
Where Nigeria goes does Kenya go they say! so will I gladly confuse Buhari for Muigai! and no apologies if caught!
In a country where the government never helped anybody apart from cronies, the question when people meet is: vipi, what is your plan to do? (there is no such thing as SIRIKALI SAIDIA! FolK wisdom recognises that would be waiting for manna to fall from heaven, which, in human history, has no precedence and shall never have happenstance!)
I am pessimist, unless human history to date is a fairy tale.
REBASE is a trick.
Assume I earn 90k, and deep in debt, x3 my income. Every month there is a 5% inflation on the interest rates on my outstanding loans which I am already hard-pressed to meet. I am in new debt to pay off old debts in fact. I run a deficit in the family budget, even before I pay for primary needs. Investment means more debt, so i have several concurrent debt portfolios. Without new debt, I am bankrupt.
But of course life has false bottoms however tight the corner. I have a car and other trappings of the game of keeping up (middle income) appearances. Rebase me now, say 30% up ---I have been using the car as a taxi and not telling, keeping chicken and cows and moonlighting some and not telling. Now I can take a higher loan, statistically projected. This is good news to the family which is addicted to our lifestyle, and whom I keep in the dark about my precarious situation. I therefore keep on keeping up appearances, brandishing my outward success and make-believe arrival, too. That is the middle class game, and the middle income countries game of the rebase. --The rebase has artificially upped my credit rating for the banks. Artificially because the statistification into accounting of the proceeds of my extra-curricular activities, now denies me any breathing room given the higher debt.
This is the pyramid scheme of debt. And it is world wide.
(Rebase means you are rich enough to take new loans, and your old loans can not be written off as bad!)
The purpose of the rebase was to unearth and annex my contraband activities into debt service. It is a desperate scavenger's protocol. It is like the technique used to strip criminals.
Most loaded criminals, even if living modestly, can not resist trappings like flashy cars and a few odd luxuries. When smart police can not find any records of richness, the tax man does a statistical modelling based on the few luxury goods confiscated. He then econometrically arrives at the approximate worth and smiles at the pauper. The smile is of a shark at a meal after a long search.
There is a model which figures out how much contraband money is flowing in a roaring savannah Lion economy like ours, Kenya. Sudan's oil heist, Tz bureaucrat thieves, Congo's looter warlords, and even latin American drug gangs venturing into new markets as the traditional centres of money laundering are no longer safe.
Nairobi is one of the upcoming Mecca's of this new dirty cash, and that is what explains some of its real estate bubbles [Mall City of the future], stock market booms, and champagne parties where the famed stuff costs a reputed $1000/bottle cash. All within a kilometre of Kibera toilet scheme settlement. That boisterous but invisible trade money beggars to be incorporated somehow into formal statistics and brought under control of the world reserve currency, $$$. Doing that is a rebase.
(the rebase is not all nonsense! and i am not against Nairobi as a Mecca of dirty money! Important is to manage it better than Switzerland at her best days as the Big Thieves banker! I am not interested in a morally clean Nairobi, I am interested in a ruthlessly COMPETENT FINANCIAL CITY. Go away London! this is why goats like Rotich make me puke! So long men like him run money in Nairobi, there is no hope in hell of overtaking London, bypassing Switzerland! Not even the Shakespearean fury of a scorned woman matches mine as I pen this!)
Note: I said NOT under the control of the CBK nor the Kenyan government, but the FED. Because, and here we have to mind the relationship between the mature bourgeoisie and their local auxiliary pawns: if the gifted trio of local accounting doctors ---Rotich, Thugge and Ouko--- can not count a mere $2bn eurobond, which adult auditor will believe they can count drug money from Latin America or heroin money from Pakistan? And if the fourth ace from Yale, Dr. Njoroge, is a sleeping dog under whose watch Banks launder Public money (like NYS) or effect strategies to loot depositors (like the artificially collapsed Imperial), who in his right mind would think he can follow the complexities of the transactions of the mineral loot of Congo, auctioned in Nairobi?
Even theft requires minimal competence!
Oh! the lazy dog opened an eye, but it is not yet barking time it reckons! Our fiscal disciplinarian does not look like Schaeuble to me. -That is a German shepperd Wanjiku could use around her granary.
How be it our golden boy Patrick has not given a state of the austerity program to Jubilee!? Thinking of our Public Wage Bill. I have listened to the kind of things Uhuru and Rotich are proposing of late --reduce benchmarking trips, stop staying in hot hotels, O please be responsible --- and concluded these are childish. Nay, an adult fiscal disciplinarian is yet to wake up in Nairobi and report to duty. And Njoroge's reputation not withstanding, he has not risen to fill the vacuum, wherefore I call him our sleeping dog. High potential lying in waste. What a horror! Now the central government is slashing DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS instead of leaning and meaning itself! shedding ballast.
www.nation.co.ke/news/Plan-to-slash-Budget-by-15pc-puts-a-strain-on-flagship-projects/-/1056/3075744/-/3lu7k4/-/index.html
www.nation.co.ke/page/search/DailyNation/news/-/1056/1056/-/view/asSearch/-/126mtu0/-/index.html
No sooner was Uhuru Kenyatta sworn in than the PWB became a flagpost point of contention. The national instinct as expressed by commentators like Mank of Jukwaa was correct. There was good opinionated consensus the rumoured 17-20 % lost thereto, even if it was the genius of econs Kibaki running the show, was a dead end sooner. But Lo and behold, the young Turks have proved themselves even less in tune with the future.
They accelerated into a ditch called cash-crunch. Much as they denied it.
WHAT % OF THE NATIONAL INCOME IS REALLY THE PWB?
Here is a warning Even you, Njoroge, you are now billable as a cheat onto cooking books!? (of course you Patrick worked for the IMF, and knowing their role in the Greek drama during the Goldman-Sachs-supervised statistical fraud to meet the Euro-rules, figure-juggling for political ends is your cup of tea even if you would not boast of it!)
What is Kenya's true figure, or best estimate of the PWB!?
1. to the best of your knowledgeable (a honest econometrist)
2. at the calculated purposes of your office. (looting Africa)
Let me still call you Opus Dei altar boy. It is valentine's after all. Tomorrow I could downgrade you ratings to Emilio Mwai Kibaki choice terminology. -mavi ya kuku, sodomised * of a red goat!
Ask David Mwiraria or former controller of State House Mateere Keriri if they dare tell!
Now I should do Omollo Gabby, but first, may be a line from the legendary Guantamera to underscore choice 1 above: a honest econometrist.
nb: (GABRIEL OMOLLO SINGS KEEP CHANGE MARA AND OTHER STORIES)
NB: Keep change mara is an old legendary song. I will trace it on youtube if possible and link it here. In my reading, or listening between the lines, Omollo Gabby outs the DOMESTIC rebase trick, how a lusty trickster uses ksh. 60 and the same ksh. 100 note, in those days a respectable mans monthly salary, to overthrow the weakly government of another man in the neighbourhood.) More about that song later. More about STATISTICAL REBASE later. First
AEGEAN BLUES.
I love to come back to current Greece, to understand a rigged game. Syriza, the leftist party which promised anti-austerity policies and a workable alternative in economic rule, capitulated without a shot. -WHY?
Why is the peoples support not enough to change national policies? especially policies which both the elite and the ruled recognise to be detrimental to national growth?
How powerful are capital's interests? -looking around the globe that power would appear Almighty!?
Where does this silent power to erase the people's and their leader's will in a so-called modern democracy, come from? Where does its invisible hands harvest this heaven-like autonomy?
Thinking about these helps me ponder the options of Muhammad Buhari. I take him to task in a different thread. This is the man on whose shoulders rests the salvation, or at least the hopes for the arrest of the decline of Nigeria. May be history has set him up for a Spartacus role. Then must we slaves fully understand Rome. And recognise, prepare for the chilling purpose of her matching columns of armour.
What can Buhari do, if the interests of the Nigerian people collide head on with the interests of big capita!?
Does he have any other option than capitulation like Sypras? Does Buhari have any other trick up his sleeve than pretence served in various PR doses of hoodwink? Can we write him off today and, as they used to say in Congo, do our own plan?
Where Nigeria goes does Kenya go they say! so will I gladly confuse Buhari for Muigai! and no apologies if caught!
In a country where the government never helped anybody apart from cronies, the question when people meet is: vipi, what is your plan to do? (there is no such thing as SIRIKALI SAIDIA! FolK wisdom recognises that would be waiting for manna to fall from heaven, which, in human history, has no precedence and shall never have happenstance!)
I am pessimist, unless human history to date is a fairy tale.
REBASE is a trick.
Assume I earn 90k, and deep in debt, x3 my income. Every month there is a 5% inflation on the interest rates on my outstanding loans which I am already hard-pressed to meet. I am in new debt to pay off old debts in fact. I run a deficit in the family budget, even before I pay for primary needs. Investment means more debt, so i have several concurrent debt portfolios. Without new debt, I am bankrupt.
But of course life has false bottoms however tight the corner. I have a car and other trappings of the game of keeping up (middle income) appearances. Rebase me now, say 30% up ---I have been using the car as a taxi and not telling, keeping chicken and cows and moonlighting some and not telling. Now I can take a higher loan, statistically projected. This is good news to the family which is addicted to our lifestyle, and whom I keep in the dark about my precarious situation. I therefore keep on keeping up appearances, brandishing my outward success and make-believe arrival, too. That is the middle class game, and the middle income countries game of the rebase. --The rebase has artificially upped my credit rating for the banks. Artificially because the statistification into accounting of the proceeds of my extra-curricular activities, now denies me any breathing room given the higher debt.
This is the pyramid scheme of debt. And it is world wide.
(Rebase means you are rich enough to take new loans, and your old loans can not be written off as bad!)
The purpose of the rebase was to unearth and annex my contraband activities into debt service. It is a desperate scavenger's protocol. It is like the technique used to strip criminals.
Most loaded criminals, even if living modestly, can not resist trappings like flashy cars and a few odd luxuries. When smart police can not find any records of richness, the tax man does a statistical modelling based on the few luxury goods confiscated. He then econometrically arrives at the approximate worth and smiles at the pauper. The smile is of a shark at a meal after a long search.
There is a model which figures out how much contraband money is flowing in a roaring savannah Lion economy like ours, Kenya. Sudan's oil heist, Tz bureaucrat thieves, Congo's looter warlords, and even latin American drug gangs venturing into new markets as the traditional centres of money laundering are no longer safe.
Nairobi is one of the upcoming Mecca's of this new dirty cash, and that is what explains some of its real estate bubbles [Mall City of the future], stock market booms, and champagne parties where the famed stuff costs a reputed $1000/bottle cash. All within a kilometre of Kibera toilet scheme settlement. That boisterous but invisible trade money beggars to be incorporated somehow into formal statistics and brought under control of the world reserve currency, $$$. Doing that is a rebase.
(the rebase is not all nonsense! and i am not against Nairobi as a Mecca of dirty money! Important is to manage it better than Switzerland at her best days as the Big Thieves banker! I am not interested in a morally clean Nairobi, I am interested in a ruthlessly COMPETENT FINANCIAL CITY. Go away London! this is why goats like Rotich make me puke! So long men like him run money in Nairobi, there is no hope in hell of overtaking London, bypassing Switzerland! Not even the Shakespearean fury of a scorned woman matches mine as I pen this!)
Note: I said NOT under the control of the CBK nor the Kenyan government, but the FED. Because, and here we have to mind the relationship between the mature bourgeoisie and their local auxiliary pawns: if the gifted trio of local accounting doctors ---Rotich, Thugge and Ouko--- can not count a mere $2bn eurobond, which adult auditor will believe they can count drug money from Latin America or heroin money from Pakistan? And if the fourth ace from Yale, Dr. Njoroge, is a sleeping dog under whose watch Banks launder Public money (like NYS) or effect strategies to loot depositors (like the artificially collapsed Imperial), who in his right mind would think he can follow the complexities of the transactions of the mineral loot of Congo, auctioned in Nairobi?
Even theft requires minimal competence!
Oh! the lazy dog opened an eye, but it is not yet barking time it reckons!
It's high noon for cheating banks in Kenya
By Pravin Bowry .Wednesday, October 21st 2015
Thousands of Kenyans have over the last two decades or so endured unimaginable misery with the collapse of banking institutions, painted by the national regulatory authorities, independent auditors and even the banking insider community as sound and flourishing.
Memories of the collapse of
1. Kenya Finance Corporation,
2. Trade Bank,
3. Trust Bank,
4. Euro Bank,
5. Reliance Bank and
6. Charter House and (7) many others still remain.
www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000180245/it-s-high-noon-for-cheating-banks-in-kenya
In the era of former Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Prof Njuguna Ndungu from 2007 to 2015 not a single bank was put under liquidation.
The placing of Dubai Bank and Imperial Bank under statutory management by the new CBK Governor Patrick Ngugi Njoroge is an indicator that the new broom is going to sweep drastically, cleaning up the banking industry.
By Pravin Bowry .Wednesday, October 21st 2015
Thousands of Kenyans have over the last two decades or so endured unimaginable misery with the collapse of banking institutions, painted by the national regulatory authorities, independent auditors and even the banking insider community as sound and flourishing.
Memories of the collapse of
1. Kenya Finance Corporation,
2. Trade Bank,
3. Trust Bank,
4. Euro Bank,
5. Reliance Bank and
6. Charter House and (7) many others still remain.
www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000180245/it-s-high-noon-for-cheating-banks-in-kenya
In the era of former Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Prof Njuguna Ndungu from 2007 to 2015 not a single bank was put under liquidation.
The placing of Dubai Bank and Imperial Bank under statutory management by the new CBK Governor Patrick Ngugi Njoroge is an indicator that the new broom is going to sweep drastically, cleaning up the banking industry.
How be it our golden boy Patrick has not given a state of the austerity program to Jubilee!? Thinking of our Public Wage Bill. I have listened to the kind of things Uhuru and Rotich are proposing of late --reduce benchmarking trips, stop staying in hot hotels, O please be responsible --- and concluded these are childish. Nay, an adult fiscal disciplinarian is yet to wake up in Nairobi and report to duty. And Njoroge's reputation not withstanding, he has not risen to fill the vacuum, wherefore I call him our sleeping dog. High potential lying in waste. What a horror! Now the central government is slashing DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS instead of leaning and meaning itself! shedding ballast.
www.nation.co.ke/news/Plan-to-slash-Budget-by-15pc-puts-a-strain-on-flagship-projects/-/1056/3075744/-/3lu7k4/-/index.html
In Summary
On Wednesday, President Uhuru Kenyatta told governors to prepare for hard times ahead as the State embarks on austerity measures to fund its development agenda.
Treasury says it requires about Sh2.6 trillion for these three projects Sh2.1 trillion for the SGR up to Nairobi, Sh400 billion for the one-million-acre irrigation scheme and Sh75 billion for a one-off implementation of the laptop project.
But in its budget proposals for the 2016/2017 fiscal year, Treasury indicated that development projects would take only Sh675 billion, with total government expenditure expected to fall to Sh1.78 trillion, a 15 per cent reduction from last years Sh2.1 trillion budget
The States decision to reduce spending in the next budget has put the Treasury and the Office of the Presidents delivery unit in a tight spot over the tough choices they must make to implement the promises made during the 2013 presidential campaigns.
On Wednesday, President Uhuru Kenyatta told governors to prepare for hard times ahead as the State embarks on austerity measures to fund its development agenda.
Treasury says it requires about Sh2.6 trillion for these three projects Sh2.1 trillion for the SGR up to Nairobi, Sh400 billion for the one-million-acre irrigation scheme and Sh75 billion for a one-off implementation of the laptop project.
But in its budget proposals for the 2016/2017 fiscal year, Treasury indicated that development projects would take only Sh675 billion, with total government expenditure expected to fall to Sh1.78 trillion, a 15 per cent reduction from last years Sh2.1 trillion budget
The States decision to reduce spending in the next budget has put the Treasury and the Office of the Presidents delivery unit in a tight spot over the tough choices they must make to implement the promises made during the 2013 presidential campaigns.
www.nation.co.ke/page/search/DailyNation/news/-/1056/1056/-/view/asSearch/-/126mtu0/-/index.html
No sooner was Uhuru Kenyatta sworn in than the PWB became a flagpost point of contention. The national instinct as expressed by commentators like Mank of Jukwaa was correct. There was good opinionated consensus the rumoured 17-20 % lost thereto, even if it was the genius of econs Kibaki running the show, was a dead end sooner. But Lo and behold, the young Turks have proved themselves even less in tune with the future.
They accelerated into a ditch called cash-crunch. Much as they denied it.
WHAT % OF THE NATIONAL INCOME IS REALLY THE PWB?
Here is a warning
The Treasurys assumption puts the wage bill of these three or four parastatals at between Sh47 billion and Sh55 billion double the salary wage bill of the core civil service!
Finally, the Treasurys statement gives a wage to expenditure ratio of 52 per cent.
Even if the wage bill was correct, this ratio would still be misleading.
The revenue figure used in the ratio is the national governments ordinary revenue which includes national government tax revenue and other recurrent revenues, such as fees and levies collected by ministries and departments, referred to in budget jargon as Appropriations-in-Aid (A-in -A).
STATISTICAL MANOEUVRE
www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Once-again-the-government-lies-about-wage-bill/-/440808/2906618/-/10njfpn/-/index.html
STATISTICAL MANOEUVRE
It does not include revenues of parastatals and county governments, that is, it takes an inflated consolidated public sector wage bill, expressed as a percentage of central government revenues.
The result is that the ratio is inflated considerably. This is straightforward mischief intended for the consumption of masses beguiled by statistics.
The correct ratio should be either consolidated public sector wage as percentage of consolidated revenues or central government wage bill as percentage of central government revenues.
With such plentiful room for statistical manoeuvre, the public wage bill can be any number that the mandarins want it to be.
Finally, the Treasurys statement gives a wage to expenditure ratio of 52 per cent.
Even if the wage bill was correct, this ratio would still be misleading.
The revenue figure used in the ratio is the national governments ordinary revenue which includes national government tax revenue and other recurrent revenues, such as fees and levies collected by ministries and departments, referred to in budget jargon as Appropriations-in-Aid (A-in -A).
STATISTICAL MANOEUVRE
www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Once-again-the-government-lies-about-wage-bill/-/440808/2906618/-/10njfpn/-/index.html
STATISTICAL MANOEUVRE
It does not include revenues of parastatals and county governments, that is, it takes an inflated consolidated public sector wage bill, expressed as a percentage of central government revenues.
The result is that the ratio is inflated considerably. This is straightforward mischief intended for the consumption of masses beguiled by statistics.
The correct ratio should be either consolidated public sector wage as percentage of consolidated revenues or central government wage bill as percentage of central government revenues.
With such plentiful room for statistical manoeuvre, the public wage bill can be any number that the mandarins want it to be.
What is Kenya's true figure, or best estimate of the PWB!?
1. to the best of your knowledgeable (a honest econometrist)
2. at the calculated purposes of your office. (looting Africa)
Let me still call you Opus Dei altar boy. It is valentine's after all. Tomorrow I could downgrade you ratings to Emilio Mwai Kibaki choice terminology. -mavi ya kuku, sodomised * of a red goat!
Ask David Mwiraria or former controller of State House Mateere Keriri if they dare tell!
Now I should do Omollo Gabby, but first, may be a line from the legendary Guantamera to underscore choice 1 above: a honest econometrist.