Why Raila Lost this Election

[kamalet]

There is a kikuyu song that criticises this hunter that wasted his arrows on ordinary monkeys whilst the prize - the colobus monkey was still in the forest. This aptly describes Raila's predicament.

Raila and team have run an extremely poor campaign and did not help themselves by compounding the problem with lies and inexplicable laziness!

Why Lazy?

Raila preferred to spend time in court and addressing press conferences where he was permanently whining and crying wolf whilst his opponents addressed up to 5 or six rallies in a day. It is said that in June alone, Jubilee addressed 200 rallies and if you compare this with the 45 that were addressed by NASA, you can understand why Jubilee made inroads in previously NASA strongholds!

Whilst there was mixed success in the litigation by NASA in the courts, all these successes did was to ensure that they would not have excuses were the to lose the election. In fact the ruling on electronic transmission of results and the role of the constituency returning officer has perhaps come back to haunt the NASA team.

The NASA campaign was poorly run and the shifting strategies from the #10millionstrong to the adopt a polling station. I will not even talk about going to Canaan as this was reduced to a cruel joke on the Nasa presidential candidate. In fact the adopt-a-polling station strategy turned into a cruel scam where loads of money was collected (amount alleged is 251 million shillings) to ensure that all 40,883 polling stations were manned by NASA agents. It is quite apparent now that NASA did not have candidates for the presidential elections as their inability to have the polling station results and being forced to rely on fake results from imaginary insiders at IEBC. The claims of hackers is nothing but a red herring and the fact that IT experts have debunked the logs they claimed were the result of hacking is shameful.

Someone is taking Raila for a ride and allowing him and his co-principals to make pronouncements on the election results management that border on the ridiculous and unfortunately this is not helping with their supporters. Raila has lost this election by more than 1.4 million votes and he has no evidence in the form of election returns to prove it was stolen from him. Even worse, the international observers do not agree with him and have indicated that they are happy so far with the performance of IEBC and also believe that the measures in place to audit the electronic results against the manual Forms 34A and 34B ensures that the election process and results are credible.

For many, the debate shall be the speculation on what Raila does at the sunset of his political career. Can he be a statesman or that fool with foot permanently in the mouth whilst chasing his tail? On this one the jury is out! But I can add that it was always good to have him in Kenyan politics and wish him a happy retirement if he has learnt anything from these elections!!

[jakaswanga]

THE NASA TEAM KAMA WAMEZA MATE

Personally I think like this. I have already stated I think Raila lost the youth vote. Why he would suffer that fate is what I need to clearly state.

–-By the way, Ouru's tally and his opponent's look dangerously short of the +19.6 million (exact number 19,611,423) registered voters the IEBC clocked. It is like upwards of 20% didn't bother to vote, even as forms 24A&B kept on remitting ranges of 100% turn-out! higher than the 2013 scorch-earth mobilisation yielded!

A quick raised eyebrow will be necessary.

IEBC certifies final electoral register of 19.6m voters

June 27 2017


It is official: 19,611,423 Kenyans are eligible to vote in this year's General Election.
On Tuesday, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission certified the electoral register, after removing a total of 88,602 dead people still on the roll of voters.
The auditing company KPMG had concluded that 1.5 million people over the age of 18 could have died between 2012 and December last year when the current register was developed, out of which 621,832 were registered, but only found 92,277 who were still in the roll.

So we don't have to correct the figures to accommodate the dead, nor hidden multiplier factors nestled in computer algorithms!

Uhuru gathered 8,203,290, Raila 6,762,224. That totals 14,965,514. Then about 450,000 were spoilt or went to the other candidates. We are thus looking at a 15.4 million voter turn-out, of the 19.6M registered.

(19.6 minus 14.9 minus 0.5) = 4.2. And Then 4.2/19.6 x 100% = 21%

Turn out 2017 was thus ~~79%. upper limit!

Huh!? Lower than 2013!?

So I think like this. That NASA was a late starter isn't the main thing, a desperate last lurch can still strike lucky. That William Ruto's workaholism beats 2 Kalonzos, 2 Mudavadis and 2 Wetas, is also beside the point. That Ouru Kenyatta proved himself a super-star liar beyond Goebbels wildest dreams, was an icing yes, but on an already good pudding. #(everything Kibaki and Raila initiated, he claimed for himself and Jubilee with shocking shamelessness, even footbridges in HomaBay and Budalangi, Busia! In fact in 6 months the man opened everything in the country. Before him everything was closed, even the Beach in Mombasa, even the skies which bring rain!) It was a manic frenzy. Ouru The Opener! --- I put it all down to William Ruto. William ruthlessly kicked the horse to its last breath. Pancha peaked, put a sword to Quixote's neck and read him a fate worse than the spirit of sportsmanship. He had adopted the gym to fend off the pigfat turning him into a rotund hog, and he was leaning and meaning and running for his future, 2022. He was sure not about to let some lazy, overweight Gikuyu prince hand it all away to some faded oldies –---remember his contemptuous vocabulary for Team Agwambo: (yule jamaa wa kupigwa na bibi na kulia ovyo ovyo mtaani; yule jamaa wa katikati, hajakua na msimamao tangu azaliwe; yule mzee wa vitendawili! As for Mudavadi, he often paused to let the crowd indulge him: ata bibi yake hakumpigia kura safari ile, sasa safari huu atatoka wasi tena!).

Singularly ruthless without relent.

But all that was just the entertainment of the festive period of song and dance and more talk and hot air sales and airy tents.

RAILA'S ACHILLES HEEL

Raila lost the election because he failed to see the opportunity fate granted him 2013. He would be around 2017, he knew, yet went to sleep. He would always be running as the progressive candidate, yet became a champion of reaction. He would always be running as the hero of devolution and the second liberation, the anti-corruption candidate and moderniser, yet he showed nothing for it.He would claim the future, yet practice the past. He needed to write THAT FUTURE down in Gold, CARVE IT INTO THE PSYCHE OF THE LAND, in order to face down the incumbent Uhuruto, whom he well knew weren't about to joke around, nor carelessly set historical record loosing a re-election in Kenya. (join Mahama of Ghana and Jonathan of Nairaland).

Howbeit fate granted Agwash the ODM victories in the great 3. Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu. And then there were seconders like Kakamega and Kisii, Kajiado and Turkana. Hot spots for one reason or another, like Land and Oil, and swing votes! Solve and Win, fate smiled at him.

And then like a fool, Raila went to snore easy. Under ODM governors, Nairobi and Mombasa and Kisumu failed to showcase Canaan economics. (Cananomics). The Auditor General's reports bull-eyed them among the Soddom and Gomorha's of kleptocracy! And worse, Canaan prototype proper, Nyanza Luoland in devolution under the divine party, was an obvious dysfunctional mess, it was more hell than Canaan.

Then a fella is facking up as we say on the streets. And he would be fakt up, in turn!

That is how you loose an election. You perform like sh!t at the Primary level, and then you want to convince Matiang'i you will be a genuine flying colours at O'level! No, the people do not need divine insight not to buy into it. And the youth who were burning schools en masse just a year ago, certainly have developed a hardened cynicism which many a senior citizen hasn't come to grips with.

Those of us who face these monsters daily in class can tell you a thing or two about their basic instincts! –--it is from them I first head of Candidate Ngatia, the man who would hang my hot fantasy, the maturely beautiful Kirinyaga Queen Anne Waiguru with a guitar wire, live at Uhuru park, for her theft of the NYS (YOUTH FUNDS).

By the way Red Ngaita would hang Daniel Arap Moi too the same way. No, that one I don't give a darn for!

But the little monsters were telling me they would vote for Ngatia if he would hang Raila Odinga too!

Imagine!

The problem with Ngatia, I heard live in class, was his love affair with Raila. The molasses land thief. So as they saw it, Ngatia is just another Raila excuse monger. So methinks Raila failed to convince the youth he means something to their future: its the economy stupid, and ODM areas weren't like offering a NEW DEAL!

Then as an opposition out to chase incumbents busy disbursing state hand-outs (buying out even your top Generals like Ababu Namwamba), you have no alternative narrative to sell.

So its inertia.

Of the 4.2 million or thereabouts of those who abstained, I bet a majority were these disillusioned young monsters. IEBC fliers like this failed to educate them! Not to mention the other 1-2M who failed to even register.

The campaign focuses on educating youth voters and spreading get-out-the-vote messaging in coordination with the IEBC to bring young people to take active roles in governance, increase the number of young people who turn out on Election Day, improve accessibility of voter information so that youth can make informed choices, and reduce the demographic’s apprehension about being first-time voters. Peace messaging is also infused throughout the campaign’s digital ads and on the ground activation activities.
This outreach strategy “YVote” aims to:
Increase youth turnout in the general election,
Increase confidence in the IEBC, and
Enhance peaceful participation in the electoral process.

From 2013 if you consider how many attained the legal age required to register as a voter, then we are easily looking at a potential lost youth vote of about 5M this election!

kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke/?p=1927

Out of the 4.6 million youth potential voters who will be aged 19 to 23 years in 2017, 2.38 million are male and 2.30 million female, hence gender ratio of 50:50. The number of this age group who live in urban areas is 1.2 million and those in rural areas is 3.4 million. Note that Nairobi and Mombasa counties do not have rural areas.

2013 elections: 100% = 12,330,028 voters.

Ater the first-ever audit of the voter's register -- often seen as a key point at which an election can be rigged -- the election commission (IEBC) announced a final list of 19.6 million voters.

"Comparatively, the register of voters has increased by 36 percent (5,222,642 voters) since 2013," IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati said in a statement.

During the audit, 88,602 deceased voters were removed from the list, however the KPMG audit firm said in a report earlier this month that there may still be around one million dead voters on the list.

A recent World Bank report shows that 1 out of every 5 youth aged between 15 and 29 in Kenya is unemployed. The Kenyan youth plan to use their large numbers at the ballot box to shape the future of Kenyan politics.

In a country where 80 percent of the population is aged below 35, just 13 percent of those running for various offices are in that age band

In fact, if you look at Kenya's national voter register statistics, you'll find that young voters below the age of 35 constitute 51 percent of the entire electorate.

Now William Ruto has 5 years to erect Canaan, or even better, a tropical paradise. Otherwise Raila today could easily be his future, 2022, or even earlier in the worst case scenario!
Why are we to China now!?

Mesays it stays the economy stupid, even as we go 100% ethnic!

Remember Ethiopia is setting growth rate records, but loosing her youth. Literally by migration, and ideologically to regional nationalisms!

We got work to do, Kenya.

Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, wins second term as President of Kenya

Friday August 11 2017

Related Content
Here is the source of Nasa's complaints
Issues Nasa wants IEBC to sort out
Jirongo and Nyagah accept defeat
Presidential results: Nasa spells out conditions to IEBC
President Kenyatta won with 8.2 million votes compared to 6.8 million votes for his closest rival Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance (Nasa).
Mr Kenyatta, riding on a well-oiled campaign machinery, prevailed despite persistent dissatisfaction with the economy and a hard-fought challenge by Mr Odinga.
Mr Odinga was at Bomas prior to the announcement where he held a meeting with Mr Chebukati's team and spelled out his demands before the poll results are made public.

where are the triumphalist pictures!?

Next: what now Wanjigi, this time the failed the king-maker?

[jakaswanga]

The view from the standard newspaper

How Uhuru and Ruto secured re-election

By Allan Mungai | Updated August 12th 2017

President Uhuru Kenyatta receives certificate from IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati on 11th August 2017. PHOTO:WILBERFORCE OKWIRI


It was billed as a tight contest, almost too close to call, according to pollsters. Some even predicted that the vote would end up in a run-off. But when the results were declared yesterday, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto emerged victorious with a comfortable lead over NASA flagbearer Raila Odinga. Uhuru and Ruto pulled a staggering upset on Raila using a clever combination of tactics and numbers. One of the surprises of the election was the manner in which President Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party successfully pulled off surprising victories in territories billed as Opposition strongholds.

Swing-vote counties

NASA’s real chance at taking over government relied on their ability to consolidate their base of Western Kenya, Coast, South Nyanza and Lower Eastern and also the swing-vote counties of Kajiado, Narok and Samburu. But the same strategy was employed by Jubilee with relative success, topping up votes from its strongholds with those from Kisii, Nyamira and Bungoma. Uhuru garnered 243,993 from Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Kakamega, up from 66,185 in 2013. It was a clever strategy, one that was targeted at improving Uhuru’s 2013 performance — concentrate on Opposition strongholds and convince them that UhuRuto were the better option.

ALSO READ: How IEBC delivered the final verdict

Uhuru’s inroads into pro-opposition zones partly relied on members of his government from such regions. And it worked, to the surprise of many, including its own leadership. Water Minister Eugene Wamalwa delivered to Jubilee 12 legislators from the wider Western Kenya region. The result is that Jubilee now has more MPs from Western Kenya than Raila’s ODM. In Gusii, Jubilee relied on acting Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, city lawyer Ken Ogeto (who also represented President Kenyatta at the International Criminal Court) and outgoing Kisii senator Chris Obure. From Kisii and Nyamira, Jubilee now has five parliamentary seats. The presidential vote rose to 269,992 up from 149,667 in 2013. But it is Jubilee’s move to field candidates in almost all the elective positions, more so in areas thought to be no-go zones for the ruling party, that helped it clinch more seats. From the outset, this election was always going to be won by whichever candidate marshalled the majority of his supporters to come out and vote. To achieve that, both Uhuru and Ruto played special attention to their strongholds and made overtures in opposition areas. The clamour for voter turnout roped in the local administration, local businessmen and vernacular radio stations. Then came the gruelling campaign period.




The President and his deputy devised a brilliant plan where they would be together in an area and separately in another, all in a day, paying keen attention to the swing vote counties and opposition strongholds where they thought Jubilee could beat NASA.

ALSO READ: How Kenyans waited for IEBC's big announcement


In the last days of the campaign, Uhuru and Ruto made whirlwind tours, sometimes touring several counties as far apart as Isiolo and Busia. The message of their campaigns was carefully tailored to match the audience and was often advised by comments of the Opposition to advance the Jubilee agenda. Down-to-earth For instance, when he missed the televised presidential debate, Uhuru retreated to his backyard of Mt Kenya where he made a villain out of the media and played down the merits of the debate.

When Raila made comments touching on the emotive land issues in Kajiado, Uhuru made that the key message of his campaign. He told voters that the Opposition did not have any plans of uniting the country. In its campaign secretariat, Jubilee had employed the best minds to assist in strategy and party image.

In media adverts, Jubilee sold the image of Uhuru as an approachable, down-to-earth and easy-going individual. While ODM made a blanket condemnation of independent candidates following the problematic party nominations, Jubilee employed a softer approach.

ALSO READ: What International observers say on Kenya’s election disputes

Uhuru asked voters to “give him leaders he could work with”, neither embracing or dismissing them. He now heads back to State House for five more years, with a majority in both houses of Parliament and the Council of Governors (COG). [Allan Mungai]
Read more at: www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251054/how-uhuru-and-ruto-secured-re-election

There are Kenyan codes here which bring a smile to my face:

--Opposition stronghold? (Nyanza, parts of Western and Ukambani, Nairobi and Coast!?)
--Jubilee strongholds (Gema and Kalenjin + pastorals?)
--Members of his government from such regions ('tribal pointmen'?)
--'emotive' land issues in Kajiado? (historical injustices?)
--problematic party nominations (widespread rigging?)
--consolidate base and ensure turn-out ('zone tribal vote, and bring it out to a dead man?)
--Game of numbers ( ahem ... Sudoku!?)

[mwalimumkuu]

Reading your reasons above, one cannot resist the conclusion that there are a million and one reasons why NASA and Raila Odinga. Prof. Misigo Amatsimbi of University of Nairobi, writing in the Standard newspaper just before the elections had given a projection of what would have happen on 8/8, and boy, was he right on the money!! He was back again a couple of days ago with analysis of what he thought earned Uhuru the huge mandate he got from the just concluded elections. I honestly think that Kalonzo Musyoka damaged NASA and Raila even more during their last rally at Uhuru Park with his "Mt Kenya lie low" unfortunate statement. Couple this with the Raila's Kajiodo remark and have a lot of problems already for a struggling campaign. Here is Prof. Amatsimbi in The Standard with his two articles:

www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251136/battle-for-numbers-how-jubilee-outplayed-nasa-in-its-own-game


www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250513/figures-don-t-lie-uhuru-headed-for-first-round-victory-on-tuesday





~~ Mwalimumkuu @nyumbakubwa ~~