Post by kamalet on Sept 1, 2017 18:28:51 GMT 3
The Supreme Court of Kenya has today ruled by majority to invalidate the election of Uhuru Kenyatta as president of the republic of Kenya.
When the results were announced, many people both locally and internationally urged the losers to respect the will of Kenyans and if dissatisfied they should they should look to the courts for remedy. Kenyans were treated to all manner of accusation on the independence of the court as well as a pronouncement that the losers will not be going to court. The decision to take the court route was only taken a lot later (and we can speculate on the reasons) after the excuse given that the decision was premised on the action on some errant 'big mouth' NGOs.
Without the benefit of the full reasoning (or even a teasers!) of the majority the only pointers that we have are the high-level reasons of dissent by justices Ndung'u and Ojwang'. The two argue on the respect of the will of the people as enshrined in the constitution so it will be interesting how the majority will navigate this one.
But having said this, as a Kenyan and I call on all others to do it, we MUST respect the decision of the court however much we want to disagree with it. I commend President Kenyatta for doing exactly this when he announced that whilst he personally disagrees with the decision, he fully respects it. Being critical of the decision should be on an informed basis! I think the reception of the decision by the Kenyatta supporters has been commendable as it was generally expected that a contrary decision would have precipitated quite some trouble. We do not have that so let us all be thankful.
Moving on, we shall have an election before 1st November 2017. So how will Kenyans behave on that election day?
When discussing this matter with others and on this forum I argued that Raila used the court route to redeem himself and a loss in this court would have been the perfect way of going out of politics with someone else holding the baggage of loss and not him. Now in the repeat elections, there are several changes in how it will be run. First the campaigns of both leaders will be boosted by other elected officials who who had no time for the presidential election hence can devote time to campaign for their candidate. There are MCAs, MPs, Senators and Governors who will be available in the grass roots which means Uhuru and Ruto do not have to run intensive campaigns to shore up their own and the local leaders campaigns. They have all hands on deck and Raila can also claim this additional hand. The second issue will be losers in opposition wanting to settle scores with those that rigged them out and also others who might want to be rewarded with some plum government post if the support a candidate.
What is not changing (and there is no evidence in court to the contrary) is that there were nearly 14 million voters and their respective support (8m vs 5m) will be the starting point of the next election. Who will be more motivated than the other to go back and queue to vote on that day? Will their be people voting in anger? I suspect the angry ones will be the 5 and 8 million voters who their varied reasons will want to seal the vote. Then you have another 5 or so million that did not bother to go to the ballot box. How will these vote and where do they come from to enable good political demographics to emerge?
We are all headed for interesting times and if Raila loses this election, it will be one that he will struggle to justify theft. Rope to hang himself? Only time will tell!
When the results were announced, many people both locally and internationally urged the losers to respect the will of Kenyans and if dissatisfied they should they should look to the courts for remedy. Kenyans were treated to all manner of accusation on the independence of the court as well as a pronouncement that the losers will not be going to court. The decision to take the court route was only taken a lot later (and we can speculate on the reasons) after the excuse given that the decision was premised on the action on some errant 'big mouth' NGOs.
Without the benefit of the full reasoning (or even a teasers!) of the majority the only pointers that we have are the high-level reasons of dissent by justices Ndung'u and Ojwang'. The two argue on the respect of the will of the people as enshrined in the constitution so it will be interesting how the majority will navigate this one.
But having said this, as a Kenyan and I call on all others to do it, we MUST respect the decision of the court however much we want to disagree with it. I commend President Kenyatta for doing exactly this when he announced that whilst he personally disagrees with the decision, he fully respects it. Being critical of the decision should be on an informed basis! I think the reception of the decision by the Kenyatta supporters has been commendable as it was generally expected that a contrary decision would have precipitated quite some trouble. We do not have that so let us all be thankful.
Moving on, we shall have an election before 1st November 2017. So how will Kenyans behave on that election day?
When discussing this matter with others and on this forum I argued that Raila used the court route to redeem himself and a loss in this court would have been the perfect way of going out of politics with someone else holding the baggage of loss and not him. Now in the repeat elections, there are several changes in how it will be run. First the campaigns of both leaders will be boosted by other elected officials who who had no time for the presidential election hence can devote time to campaign for their candidate. There are MCAs, MPs, Senators and Governors who will be available in the grass roots which means Uhuru and Ruto do not have to run intensive campaigns to shore up their own and the local leaders campaigns. They have all hands on deck and Raila can also claim this additional hand. The second issue will be losers in opposition wanting to settle scores with those that rigged them out and also others who might want to be rewarded with some plum government post if the support a candidate.
What is not changing (and there is no evidence in court to the contrary) is that there were nearly 14 million voters and their respective support (8m vs 5m) will be the starting point of the next election. Who will be more motivated than the other to go back and queue to vote on that day? Will their be people voting in anger? I suspect the angry ones will be the 5 and 8 million voters who their varied reasons will want to seal the vote. Then you have another 5 or so million that did not bother to go to the ballot box. How will these vote and where do they come from to enable good political demographics to emerge?
We are all headed for interesting times and if Raila loses this election, it will be one that he will struggle to justify theft. Rope to hang himself? Only time will tell!