Raila Odinga: A Political Orbituary

[kamalet]

Kenya is scheduled to have a fresh presidential election following a controversial annulment of the election by the supreme court of Kenya. The contest is between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga. Following the order for a fresh election, Uhuru has been on a frenetic campaign programme going round the country appealing for votes and playing the usual Kenyan politics of promises of goodies etc. On the other hand, Raila has addressed rallies in Kibera, Kisii and parts of Kakamega all of which you can count on the fingers of your hands. However, he has been frenetic (apologies for repeating this one!) on the press conference circuit where he has bandied one reason (excuse) after another why the coming elections would not be fair and why this corporate or other should be boycotted. As I cannot explain the reasoning for this strategy, I can only assume it is the NASA campaign strategy.

The news though is the continued shouting that he will boycott the elections or in some extreme cases NASA will ensure there is no election all part of a strategy perhaps to create a constitutional situation whose outcome is uncertain.

But I can say here with no fear of contradiction - Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta will win the fresh elections by a larger margin than the 8th August election IF it is held. So what happens to Raila after this? Is this suggestion of an orbituary early?

In the Raila corner, there are two camps. One camp wants to see the end of his political relevance whilst the other wants Raila to remain relevant even after the elections or post 26/10/17 whatever the case. The former are seeing the same result I see (the Uhuru win) and must reckon that a Raila defeat seals his political coffin allowing them to lay claim the community vote that he has literally owned without his support. The latter would be more interested in the disruptive model that has been pushed by Raila i.e. boycott or disrupt the elections. The two options are increasingly becoming untenable as they do not have the support of many. So the option that seems to remain and which might even be aided by the Jubilee led election law amendments, RAILA WILL WITHDRAW from the elections. He will withdraw from the elections with the same reasons/excuses he has given previously allowing Uhuru to take the presidency for the last time. But Raila will retain the rights to complaining about the stolen election and the nefarious behaviour of IEBC as the reasons he did not become president hence his entitlement to remain noisily relevant as he exits the political stage. Such a strategy allows him to be in the position where he can actually appoint (annoint?) his successor which is what the disruptive camp would want.

Raila will exit the political stage at the end of October - which route will he choose to end it? Natural death or suicide?

[kamalet]

I said it on MONDAY 9th October that Raila would WITHDRAW and he would give the same lame reasons for withdrawal!

[b6k]

Oct 11, 2017 7:45:01 GMT 3 kamalet said:

I said it on MONDAY 9th October that Raila would WITHDRAW and he would give the same lame reasons for withdrawal!

Kamale but Murkomen was talking about this all day on Sunday and then Uhuru took it up in Mombasa on Monday. It seems Raila's plan was known to some over the weekend and Murkomen's "prediction" which he started outing on social media and then capped it off by an appearance on Citizen TV's Sunday night broadcast, complete with the details that the withdrawal would take place tomorrow (Monday) or latest Wednesday was to bait Raila into making good on his "secret" October Surprise.

To me it seems Jubilee is now alive to the nefarious/devious plans that NASA has up its sleeves and they no longer intend to be caught on the backfoot as they were with Justice Maraga's curious ruling. It's a case of fool me once, shame on you....fool me twice, shame on me!

[kamalet]

So the presidential election is now finally done with the final decision of the Supreme Court on the election of Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and the inevitable crashing of Raila in the poll. Anyone who was claiming illegitimacy of the election should know that the decision of the court declared the election run as per the constitution and all other written laws when the upheld the declaration by Chebukati.

Raila who has been blowing hot and cold since 26th October and the declaration went to the US where he had low-key presentations and prompty run off to Zanzibar in pursuit of things I need not repeat here to ensure he misses the decision day of the election petition.

Does Raila have a political future? My personal opinion is that just as I first wrote on 9th October, I think the time is ripe to start writing his political obituary. When Uhuru and Ruto are sworn in on Monday, it is most likely that they will start the Raila purge that will bring the grand opposition man to his knees and I think they will give him a decent lane to exit the political stage with minimal embarrassment. But Raila being neither too wise nor too foolish will still try resurrect himself the silly way at the behest of people surrounding who will mislead him to an even ignominious political end! The push by his surrogates to suggest a swearing in when Uhuru is being sworn in on 28th indicates the weak point he finds himself in. It would appear he is in the same position where Mugabe was in until last Tuesday when the military stepped in to stop his wife Grace from the stupid purge she was leading by harrassing Mugabe to do her bidding. The G40 of Zimbabwe is similar to the James Orengo Cabal that surrounds Raila and gives him wrong advice.

On Tuesday several things will happen..and it might include a tangazo la tanzia za kisiasa!

[Fahari]

Nov 21, 2017 17:31:47 GMT 3 kamalet said:

So the presidential election is now finally done with the final decision of the Supreme Court on the election of Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and the inevitable crashing of Raila in the poll. Anyone who was claiming illegitimacy of the election should know that the decision of the court declared the election run as per the constitution and all other written laws when the upheld the declaration by Chebukati.

Raila who has been blowing hot and cold since 26th October and the declaration went to the US where he had low-key presentations and prompty run off to Zanzibar in pursuit of things I need not repeat here to ensure he misses the decision day of the election petition.

Does Raila have a political future? My personal opinion is that just as I first wrote on 9th October, I think the time is ripe to start writing his political obituary. When Uhuru and Ruto are sworn in on Monday, it is most likely that they will start the Raila purge that will bring the grand opposition man to his knees and I think they will give him a decent lane to exit the political stage with minimal embarrassment. But Raila being neither too wise nor too foolish will still try resurrect himself the silly way at the behest of people surrounding who will mislead him to an even ignominious political end! The push by his surrogates to suggest a swearing in when Uhuru is being sworn in on 28th indicates the weak point he finds himself in. It would appear he is in the same position where Mugabe was in until last Tuesday when the military stepped in to stop his wife Grace from the stupid purge she was leading by harrassing Mugabe to do her bidding. The G40 of Zimbabwe is similar to the James Orengo Cabal that surrounds Raila and gives him wrong advice.

On Tuesday several things will happen..and it might include a tangazo la tanzia za kisiasa!

Its too early to write his obituary, beware the last kicks of a dying horse, they can be fatal. This man is willing to take down the whole country on his way out. Jubilee needs to be extra careful as there maybe landmines out there .