Post by adongo23456 on Feb 3, 2011 5:09:53 GMT 3
RR & Others,
Let's get to the heart of the matter here.
Let's deal with the lame arguments first. One is that if NARA collapses in this case by Kibaki pulling the plug, then the same Kibaki will simply and smoothly form a government of National Unity (whatever that is) and there will be bliss and merry times in PNU land. That is bad political fiction.
Putting the legal arguments aside, NARA and the GCG came into existence for a reason. Kenya is not operating in a political vacuum. NARA and the GCG came about because some known thief stole the elections. The whole world and the thief knows that. For that same thief to now say he is just going to kill the GCG and take the country back to the turmoil, uncertainty and confrontation that preceded NARA is criminal recklessness that even the mad Kibaki will not dare try.
Second in terms of the legal framework the death of NARA will trigger endless legal and political battles. Nobody really knows where that ends. Not PNU and not ODM. But it is foolhardy for either party to assume it will go their way. Then there is also the little thing called the Kenyan people. From the comments I have see they are daring the PNU to try and see the fire. I will come back to that shortly.
Ideally I would like the GCG to end. Right now would be a very good time. In fact I have just recently asked the PM to study the weather and if things get out of control to pull out of the GCG. In truth Raila cannot do that because the political backlash would kill him. Kenyans know where they came from before NARA.
Kenyans are also very frustrated with even the most clear things getting screwed up in endless childish power games. People want to move on with their lives and make a living. If anybody tries to push them back into darkness, they are going to be very angry with that person. That is why I know Raila cannot pull the flag. He is not that foolish.
But if Kibaki pulls the flag he (Raila) and ODM would be in a fantastic position to mobilize the nation against these endless treacheries. So if they want to pull it off, be my guest today. Don't even wait for March 4. But we know that this mara a vote of no confidence mara pulling out of NARA is the last refuge of the scoundrels when they get stuck like they are now. Those cowards would never do any such thing.
Now someone mentioned Egypt. I was thinking about what we have just witnessed in Egypt. It was unthinkable just days ago. So how did it work so well. There are some very important lessons for Kenya in Egypt.
First of all in both Egypt and Tunisia we have seen proof positive that mass action is a powerful weapon for struggle for the oppressed folks and that without the violence from the state mass action are peaceful avenues for struggle. This defies the nonsense that mass action means violence. No it doesn't. It is the state and their agents who often introduce and sustain violence in the face of mass rebellion by citizens.
In the Egyptian the heroes of the struggle other than the people themselves are members of the Egyptian armed forces. When the rallies started with just 2,000 people and moved to 10,000 the Egyptian police moved in with the typical violence approach, the Kenyan style. They were overcome and Mubarak decided it was time to bring in the army.
The usual cynical types around the globe declared the Egyptian masses did not stand a chance against the army, one of the largest in the world with sophisticated weapons to boot. Mubarak was very confident the army will sweep the streets as ordered. Then the second unthinkable thing happened the armed forces refused to attack the citizens. They urged them to be peaceful. That shocked the world.
It was stunning to see 2 million people in the streets and not a single act of violence. There were a few shots fired but mostly by Mubarak loyalists in plain clothes. Some of them were also busted looting shops in an effort to turn the situation into a security problem and scare the people.
Instead the 2 million demonstrators turned into askaris, the flushed out bad elements, they were searching people for weapons, there were groups cleaning garbage. I saw a woman hand over her tiny child to armed soldiers on an armoured carrier. The sense of solidarity, peace and patriotism shocked Mubarak into a virtual surrender. Imagine that happening in Kenya. When the GSU are not executing people. The police come out to make sure there is peace in the streets not to surround Uhuru park and chase people with bullets and tear gas.
The third element that we need to learn is the origins and purpose of the battles we are seeing. It started in Tunisia when a young man, a university graduate who was vending stuff for a living had his stuff taken. he got mad. he had no other way to make a living. He set himself on fire in protest. The nation noticed and rose to fight for economic rights and against stifling poverty. That has been the defining line of the uprising in Egypt and Tunisia.
This is not about tribal machismo. This is not about getting this or that tribe in power. This is about people saying they are fed up of being poor and they are fed up with corruption that feeds a few people and starves the rest of the country. There are no ethnic or even partisan tensions. People are fed up period and as long as you join the battle for the same purpose you are among a million of friends. In Kenya out mass action gets often bogged down with ethnic jingoism and tribal nonsense. You know who that serves? It serves the interest of the ruling elite. Kenyans can hack themselves to pieces in the bushes while the lords sit comfortably enjoying their loot.
The fourth thing I saw which was quite impressive is the role the middle class is playing in this battle and even the super rich. In Kenya our middle class has this self defeating habit that politics is for the poor in the slums and the activists. They sit around in their rickety cars and hop from bar to bar laughing at Kenyans who dare to challenge the powers that be. Many have this dream that they are just about to burst into the ranks of the super rich. More often than not they move backwards. The sad part really is that it is the middle class who will reap the most benefits in a stable, efficient economy and political atmosphere in Kenya.
In Egypt the middle went to the streets and stayed there. I was impressed with a guy who runs a multi million dollar construction company which he said is losing millions because of the economic stand still and the uprising. But he said he is willing to sacrifice because he is fed up with corruption. He said the confrontation was inevitable and the sooner it is done the better for everybody and for his country. Standing next to him was a super rich ex police boss now running his own business, when asked why he was at the rally, he simply said "Because I am Egyptian". This is the kind of approach countries need in democratic national revolutions like the one we are seeing in Egypt.
As a footnote. It is interesting what the Egyptian revolution has done to Israel. Just in a week Israel has lost its greatest ally other than the US. Egypt for the last over 30 of so years since Sadat has been practically an extension of Israel. Every thing they do goes through Egypt. Same with the US. All the fake talks and endless negotiations go through Egypt.
That has been turned on its head. It will start with Gaza where Egypt has helped Israel to blockade over a million people in a tiny strip of land turning it into the world's largest concentration camp. That will not be sustainable with the new forces emerging in Egypt.
To make things worse Weakileaks just exposed that the Palestinian Authority leaders and Mubarak were busy handing over everything to Netanyahu, which he still he rejected. he now wishes to took the offer.
The world of Bibi Netanyahu has turned on its head and Israel is at its weakest point in very many decades.
Now who could have known that a young man setting himself on fire in Tunisia could change the world this much in two weeks.
That is why I am telling these jokers of PNU to please bring it ON. You might just get exactly what you are asking for. The nation is very ready for these confused bumblers.
adongo
Folks,
Hosni Mubarak makes his biggest blunder yet. Using thugs on horses and camels to attack citizens and harass media personalities is as dumb a move as one makes in Mubarak's position. Not to worry the patriotic forces have taken back the Liberation Square and plans are underway for the day of rage on Friday.
The army finally goofed big time by letting the thugs in and hiding in their armoured carriers. Terrible mistake for them.
But this was the day of infamy for Mubarak. It will NOT work.