Should Raila Writeoff The Central Vote?

[b6k]

Excerpt:

"In the opinion taking over kiambu county boundaries Githunguri stood and kiambaa constituency people started heckling saying that he is a traitor and betrayor of kiambu people for supporting ODM party and prime minister Raila Odinga."

www.the-star.co.ke/local/central/59509-githunguri-heckled-at-iebc-hearing-

The elections are months away but the electorate is clearly polarized. Githunguri seems to be in the same position Tuju finds himself at Nyanza: branded a traitor before the games have even commenced. Does Raila really stand a chance in Central?

[mzee]

Our country has a long way to go.
There are many primitive people. Thats all I can say for now.

[njamba]

Yes he talking to my sources on the ground Raila 10% in central is gone for good with the confirmation. The voters are polarized. I would also say the same for RV so raila hope lies in Nyanza, western and coast. Eastern belongs to GEMA so it will go to uhuru or whoever GEMA candidate is. NEP is just north eastern still voting KANU even in 2007. Raila achilles hill is tribal chauvinism and with I can say Raila will lucky to be elected 4th president of Kenya

[cheshirecat]

Jan 26, 2012 7:59:53 GMT 3 mzee said:

Our country has a long way to go.
There are many primitive people. Thats all I can say for now.

Why would you insult millions of people for having an opinion. They dont like your candidate, period. You dont like theirs either, does that make you primitive?

There are millions of Americans who think Obama is not even American. Its fine. Its their perspective.

We need to learn to have different opinions and yet get along together. Its the only way a democracy can flourish.

[chokoraa]

Jan 26, 2012 8:07:55 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Yes he talking to my sources on the ground Raila 10% in central is gone for good with the confirmation. The voters are polarized. I would also say the same for RV so raila hope lies in Nyanza, western and coast. Eastern belongs to GEMA so it will go to uhuru or whoever GEMA candidate is. NEP is just north eastern still voting KANU even in 2007. Raila achilles hill is tribal chauvinism and with I can say Raila will lucky to be elected 4th president of Kenya

Njamba,
Are you not seeing anything tribal in your analysis here? Then you say the tribal chauvinism is in RAO.
If central want to vote based on tribe then it's ok, but I will tell you that if you want to use tribe to make political decisions in this country then ''you're on the wrong side of history'', as uncle Barry would put it.
Chox

[phil]

Jan 26, 2012 7:13:12 GMT 3 b6k said:

Excerpt:

"In the opinion taking over kiambu county boundaries Githunguri stood and kiambaa constituency people started heckling saying that he is a traitor and betrayor of kiambu people for supporting ODM party and prime minister Raila Odinga."

www.the-star.co.ke/local/central/59509-githunguri-heckled-at-iebc-hearing-

The elections are months away but the electorate is clearly polarized. Githunguri seems to be in the same position Tuju finds himself at Nyanza: branded a traitor before the games have even commenced. Does Raila really stand a chance in Central?

b6k

You are reading erroneously into this.

Apparently, 99% of the on-going electoral boundary hearings have had heckling, fighting and all sorts of disagreements. And this has happened at nearly all venues the IEBC is holding hearings. These disagreements have nothing to do with the presidential poll.

For example, if we were to go by your arguments in this thread, would you conclude that those who exchanged blows in Bungoma during the IEBC hearings were Raila's or Wamalwa's or Wetangula's supporters and that this fight is a reflection of how the presidential vote will turn out? I hope not.

What I know is that whoever can win significant support in majority of the 47 counties will probably emerge as a front runner to succeed Kibaki and at the moment, I do not see anyone else besides Raila doing this.

[fortune]

Raila should not write off any region.Every single vote counts for any presidential candidate.The ICC has levelled the playground for everyone.Nobody can use violence,lies or intimidation to force the voters to vote one way or the other.One day is a long time in politics.As long as Raila behaves like a statesman (by not responding to each and every comment and through use of speeches that urges unity of purpose),he has nothing to worry.

[njamba]

Jan 26, 2012 9:30:19 GMT 3 chokoraa said:

Jan 26, 2012 8:07:55 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Yes he talking to my sources on the ground Raila 10% in central is gone for good with the confirmation. The voters are polarized. I would also say the same for RV so raila hope lies in Nyanza, western and coast. Eastern belongs to GEMA so it will go to uhuru or whoever GEMA candidate is. NEP is just north eastern still voting KANU even in 2007. Raila achilles hill is tribal chauvinism and with I can say Raila will lucky to be elected 4th president of Kenya

kenyan have choosen tribal chauvinism to be the most biggest factor in selecting their presidents and leaders so I can do nothing about it as a political analyst but comment on it

Kikuyus, luos, kalenjins, kambas, merus all vote tribal interest first then issues later

Njamba,
Are you not seeing anything tribal in your analysis here? Then you say the tribal chauvinism is in RAO.
If central want to vote based on tribe then it's ok, but I will tell you that if you want to use tribe to make political decisions in this country then ''you're on the wrong side of history'', as uncle Barry would put it.
Chox

[njamba]

Jan 26, 2012 9:52:17 GMT 3 phil said:

Jan 26, 2012 7:13:12 GMT 3 b6k said:

Excerpt:

"In the opinion taking over kiambu county boundaries Githunguri stood and kiambaa constituency people started heckling saying that he is a traitor and betrayor of kiambu people for supporting ODM party and prime minister Raila Odinga."

www.the-star.co.ke/local/central/59509-githunguri-heckled-at-iebc-hearing-

The elections are months away but the electorate is clearly polarized. Githunguri seems to be in the same position Tuju finds himself at Nyanza: branded a traitor before the games have even commenced. Does Raila really stand a chance in Central?

b6k

You are reading erroneously into this.

Apparently, 99% of the on-going electoral boundary hearings have had heckling, fighting and all sorts of disagreements. And this has happened at nearly all venues the IEBC is holding hearings. These disagreements have nothing to do with the presidential poll.

For example, if we were to go by your arguments in this thread, would you conclude that those who exchanged blows in Bungoma during the IEBC hearings were Raila's or Wamalwa's or Wetangula's supporters and that this fight is a reflection of how the presidential vote will turn out? I hope not.

What I know is that whoever can win significant support in majority of the 47 counties will probably emerge as a front runner to succeed Kibaki and at the moment, I do not see anyone else besides Raila doing this.

Phil,
be honest, raila cannot poll more than 10% in Kiambu that is a fact. Githunguri was heckled because he is seen as a Raila supporter a dangerous thing to be politically in kiambu if you want to be voted back as MP..Kiambu right now is EUPHORiC about uhuru but we have to wait and see what the next 10 months bring the sentiment may change but for NOW RAILA should save Tuju type of shaming by not trying to campaign in Kiambu

[b6k]

@ Phil, yes the IEBC meetings have had their fair share of heckling, blows, etc but you'll find many of the others have been inter-clan turf wars & the like. In Kiambu, Githunguri was heckled specifically for his open support of Raila as much as Tuju is a marked man in Nyanza for his support of PNU & Kibaki.

@ Njamba, I think you miscontrued my saying Raila should writeoff of Central vote. By that I do not mean he shouldn't put in any campaign efforts in the region. On the contrary, as Fortune says, every single vote counts & not being seen to campaign in Central will later come with it's own baggage. All I was saying by Raila writing off the Central vote is that he should not count on it, but by all means he must pursue it.

[mangai]

Did he even have Central in the first place? I have always maintained Raila was and most probably will be wasting his time and resources trying to campaign in central. They will never vote for him, period! The issue is not about ICC, for everyone knows that Raila did not in anyway influence the proceedings. If anything, he was at the forefront of campaigning for establishment of local tribunal. ICC matter is all but an excuse.

The once upon a time njamba was only useful when he mobilised his people to vote for Kibaki. Same way Ruto is now useful with the expectation that he can mobilise Rift Valley to vote for Uhuru or spoil for Raila, after which atawachwa kwa mataa. They don't have time for him, only interested in the Kalenjin vote.

There is already talk of fronting George Kinuthia Saitoti, just in case something happens to Uhuru. If the problem was this 'Jaruo', why are they not thinking of supporting someone like Kalonzo? I always ask them.

The best Raila can get from Gema, are a few votes from Meru, especially from the Nyambene (Maua) areas.

I frequently visit many of those areas and in the process carry out some 'opinion polls'. That is the situation on the ground.

The best bet for Raila is to woo back the Kalenjin even if to count in the run off. It is not an impossibility.

The other option is to vigorously campaign in ODM strongholds and sensitize people on the need for a high voter turn out. Otherwise, Raila still has a long way to go.

[njamba]

Mangai, your said what I was trying to tell others but i am limited in articulating my points well like you did.. Raila hope now lies in mombasa,nyanza, parts of western, nairobi, otherwise he will not make it and will be lose to uhuru and ruto coalition

[godmesa]

Kenya is entering a phase in its transition that is lost to most of us. After trying along spell of false pretension of creating a nation state which only benefited a few, we have saliently and only recently discovered that we are different in our own unique ways and therefore we have decided to devolve the nation, breath life in it as a devolved system and then maybe later we can rebuild it later as nation whose peiople understand what brings them together in the first place.
But this not a lesson in history, it is the reality.

Central vote for Raila was never going to take place, it didn't take place for shikuku after mobilising the luhya vote for matiba, it didn't take place for Jaramogi after dismantling the myth that was KADU/UKOLONI outfit to pave way for kenyatta presidency, and as you can see, it is not going to materialise for kalonzo, after giving kibaki a lifeline. And it won't even materialise for MERU/EMBU if they were to present a formidable candidate for the presidency. It is not limited to the presidency, kivuitu being a wasted man only came after he did some careless bidding for a very selfish clique. A little side-step of the AMERU dilemma can be seen in the canny and clever way that muthaura has neatly tied up kibaki to his hague predicament, otherwise even him would have been thrown to the sidelines immediately after the state house secret meetings.

So what to do? Raila needs to campaign as kenyan, he has so far done very well representing a perfect image of kenya in africa and abroad despite his many detractors. He will communicate to Kenyans very well about what they stand to gain in their own devolved mini-nations, and that must include central, and what those devolevd units means in the rebuilding of Kenya plc.

As to the matter of ICC, it is not lost to clever people of central that ONE OF THE BIGGEST CRIMES COMMMITTED, OTHER THAN THE PEV, was the targeted killings of central youths inorder to silence as many of them as possible. Those who were part of the mungiki gang that had been used during PEV. The cry of the mothers and the women whose children's bodies littered Ngong didn't bother Uhuru one little bit. It was the cry of the nation that brought the killing to a sudden halt, and the kwekwe band disbanded. These are more crimes that should be added to Uhuru's charge sheet.

So campaign, he will and he must, central now has a double duty to deliver for its own people in their devolved nations, and take part in the re-building of a new kenya whse meaning everyone will relate to from the basics.

[njugunajohn]

Jan 26, 2012 8:07:55 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Yes he talking to my sources on the ground Raila 10% in central is gone for good with the confirmation. The voters are polarized. I would also say the same for RV so raila hope lies in Nyanza, western and coast. Eastern belongs to GEMA so it will go to uhuru or whoever GEMA candidate is. NEP is just north eastern still voting KANU even in 2007. Raila achilles hill is tribal chauvinism and with I can say Raila will lucky to be elected 4th president of Kenya

The funniest and most amazing (most revealing) statement I've ever read about Raila goes something like this, "The man has been pursuing the Presidency from his 1982 Coup to the 2012 elections! A whole 30 years in Kenya's almost 50 years of existence, yet it has eluded him for 30 years and will elude him forever."

I think he does not find favour to take the Presidency, since he has always sought it through what Kenyans call 'Kifua'.

You cannot impose yourself on the people and after you fail call yourself the people's choice

[emali]

As has been opined by others & recently by Hassan Omar of KHRC I believe that only the Gikuyu can save Kenya but I’m not an idealist to believe it will happen. We can postulate about who will get this region & who won’t but in this hopefully clean democracy its ultimately about the numbers.GEMA have the numbers and frankly as someone who has travelled in every corner of this country I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gikuyu numbers were understated in the last census because my eyes don’t lie.

I will give Kibaki credit for the new constitution but that is where it ends especially when ‘distinguished’ professionals like Githu Muigai are dancing to his self serving tune. What I would have wanted the constitution to provide was a one term six year presidency rotating between the main six to eight largest tribes. A rotating presidency would have significantly reduced ethnic tensions, completely eradicated the ‘mta-do’ culture & made us focus on more important things like the economy instead of the 24 hour political barrage we are constantly force fed with.

Frankly what Kenyatta started and Moi continued cannot be cured in a generation and Kibaki seems to be on his way to outdoing both of them combined. The reality is everyone wants to eat and I understand the Kamales and the Njungunajohns when they point out that Raila or the anti-establishment forces are not any better or even regarding Uhuru’s fate at the I.C.C...Gikuyus were being killed in Rift Valley what were their leaders supposed to do?

Our politics is rotten and we are all victims and it will eventually cannibalize the nation and I’m not being melodramatic especially when you see young people in their twenties and thirties spewing tribal hatred worse than the old tribal chieftains of years past
.
As for the next elections I don’t know who will win but I do know that virtually all the countries recourses will be drained by the election, we will be held hostage by the anticipation and I might not be free to travel to some parts of the country.

[Omwenga]

Jan 26, 2012 8:07:55 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Yes he talking to my sources on the ground Raila 10% in central is gone for good with the confirmation. The voters are polarized. I would also say the same for RV so raila hope lies in Nyanza, western and coast. Eastern belongs to GEMA so it will go to uhuru or whoever GEMA candidate is. NEP is just north eastern still voting KANU even in 2007. Raila achilles hill is tribal chauvinism and with I can say Raila will lucky to be elected 4th president of Kenya

@njamba,,

One truth about life is facts are not a monopoly of anyone.

Pollsters spend time and money telling us a narrative and you probably agree, even as we have sound, objective and scientifically reliable polling that provides an accurate representation of the mood of the people at the time done, we equally have many which serve interests not always too clear.

I enjoy trying to decipher the meaning of these polls, especially in Kenya: mara is to prop up a candidate, mara it's to tear down one, mara its peddle a message only the most astute of keen observers can detect begging the question why do they (pollster) even bother.

Least of all in reliability is what our "sources" tell us.

Just as in polling, "sources" can be as reliable but equally as unreliable, especially when coming from one with an agenda.

For example, here in the US when a reporter says, for example, "sources tell me," I immediately switch guard and start listening to that as if saying, I or Fox News is of the view...

That's not to say sources are imaginary always; in many cases they are real and form an important part of journalism (and blogging).

Just as your "source" has told you that Raila has lost the 10% he received from the former Central, I have my sources who have seen internal polling telling a different story.

If I were advising ODM, I would tell them to conduct another one in RV and former Central now to measure the mood of the people there post-confirmation and I am almost certain that's being done.

Right after the decision was announced, I did my own polling of the handful of friends I know are supporters of UK and Ruto, just to get the sense of what their moods were.

I blogged the other day the sense I got from the brief chats, was that the reality of PEV has finally sunk in for these two.

Here is that blog in response to someone who mistakenly believes ICC will be successfully used against Raila:

Right after I finished watching live coverage of the ICC court proceeding in which the judges announced their decision, I made a few phone calls, not to any of my ODM friends in Nairobi, but to a handful of friends, including a couple I know are Ruto and UK staunch supporters.

They obviously each know I am for Raila even though they don't know each other, except for one so, any chats we have, is always with those facts in mind but anytime I chat with any of them, its usually from a friendly chat perspective and one gets the sense there is an effort to be honest even though one cannot rule out the fact one is being spun.

I therefore take with a grain of salt what any of them and others I talk to--and yes, including those on my side, say for that's just how human nature and politics is.

Anyway, what I found interesting in the chats I had with these friends, and the reason I am telling you about it, is each one of these guys told me on one version or another, that they were awaiting the public reaction and news coverage later that evening to determine what the decision comports.

Unless I was being spun out of this world by each of these friends, which I highly doubt, the conclusion I reached is it must have finally sunk in these camps that ICC is real and not your usual political posturing and shenanigans.

So, unlike you, I don't have any concerns that we are going to see the kind of mobilizing in favor of impunity and/or exploitation of the ICC issue to advance tribalism, which I'll give you, would have been the case had the decision been split as to UK and Ruto for the reasons I stated in my What Outcome Should Kenya Expect Out of ICC in which I urged that all these cases should be confirmed, if anything, to have a trial to establish the facts but if not confirmed, that that had to be the case for both UK and Ruto.

Now that the four cases have been confirmed, the process must proceed to conclusion at trial and even beyond, if appeals are taken.

I also do not share your concern that the judge's finding that a meeting was held at State House in which it's alleged part of the planning for the crimes was discussed necessarily changes anything about how Raila is perceived in the former central than he is, if anything, and strictly speaking as a matter of analysis, it helps him there in his quest for the presidency.

There is no doubt the language in the decision about the State House meeting is in the minds of Kibaki and his minders but there are a thousand ways they can deal with it than doing anything dumb as to rev up tribal based hate or animosity.

We are past that.

End quote.

I am fairly confident you will see two different Rutos and Uks from now on and the dynamics of 2012 have suddenly shifted.

[Omwenga]

Jan 26, 2012 7:13:12 GMT 3 b6k said:

Excerpt:

"In the opinion taking over kiambu county boundaries Githunguri stood and kiambaa constituency people started heckling saying that he is a traitor and betrayor of kiambu people for supporting ODM party and prime minister Raila Odinga."

www.the-star.co.ke/local/central/59509-githunguri-heckled-at-iebc-hearing-

The elections are months away but the electorate is clearly polarized. Githunguri seems to be in the same position Tuju finds himself at Nyanza: branded a traitor before the games have even commenced. Does Raila really stand a chance in Central?

b6k
,

Raila has a 47-County Campaign Strategy (47CCS) which has been in place since before ICC and will remain so regardless of what happens at the Hague and regardless of what UK or Ruto or whatever tribal grouping they affiliate themselves with, or seek the presidency under do.

This means there is no area or areas of Kenya Raila or ODM will write off in campaigning; they may strategically allocate more resources to one and not other areas but nothing like writing off any area or areas.

Those saying so are only wishing and hope Raila abandons that strategy and pursue a more tribalistic one like everyone else.

They are wrong.

I fully realize those saying so are driven by their erroneous belief that ICC somehow dooms Raila's prospects in the former Central but they are wrong there as well.

The new Supreme Court we all praised the composition of it's members, including the Chief Justice will ultimately decide whether or not people suspected of having been the most responsible for commission of crimes against humanity can run for office.

Neither Raila nor ODM will have anything to do with that decision much as they have nothing to do with the ICC decisions.

47CCS shall go on regardless of what the decision is.

[njamba]

Omwenga,
Raila should spend his resources in Nairobi, central is not worthy the trouble.. I can tell you Uhuru has Kiambu 110% vote in his bag you cannot change that fact. Kiambu numbers this week are in Uhuru’s column it is up to ODM to think of how they can earn their 10% back

[njamba]

Raila is now effective locked out of Central, RV and Parts of western.. Coast may fall soon and then we can say Former PM was a boisterous man who wanted to be president but was stopped dead on tracks by Tribal supremacy coalitions

[kevoh]

As per the political parties act how many people can join Raila in fighting for the presidency votes in central? Martha Karua gets disqualified because she is Chairman of Narc which is not allowed, Uhuru just threw in the towel yesterday

[kevoh]

Lest us forget that our new constitution makes only those with nothing to loose or are ready to retire after loosing the chance to risk running for the presidency. There will be no ministerial positions, nomination into parliament nor public service appointments into parastatal positions as it has been the norm. If you do not win seat you will not be seen for a while; how many aspirants are ready for such and their parties adhere to the political parties act+

[Omwenga]

Jan 26, 2012 18:00:10 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Omwenga,
Raila should spend his resources in Nairobi, central is not worthy the trouble.. I can tell you Uhuru has Kiambu 110% vote in his bag you cannot change that fact. Kiambu numbers this week are in Uhuru’s column it is up to ODM to think of how they can earn their 10% back

Njamba,


Let's step back and take an objective look at this.

If you remove the two heretofore most potent factors in election outcome, namely, tribalism and ethnicity, you will still be left with the notion that one must win at least a majority of heats and minds in his or her own home-turf.

In other words, having a solid support in one's home turf is not necessarily an evil or undesirable feat; rather, it is the reasons why one has such support.

If all Kisiis vote for Kisii vote for me for president because I am Kisii, that's wrong and we should all reject that.

If all Kisiis vote for me for president because they all believe there is none out there running better than yours truly to be elected president, there is nothing wrong with that.

I don't think anyone can make any sensible argument that people of Kiambu are 110% against Raila for any reason other than being tribalists, which I hope you'll agree with me we need to reach out to them and urge them to get on with the rest of the country in leaving ukabila bahind.

Note also the converse of this and that is, rejection.

When the people who know you the best reject you, there is no reason those who don't know you that well should vote for you in a nationwide election.

Al Gore won a majority vote in 2000 but was not sworn as president because he lost his home state of Tennessee.

[phil]

Jan 26, 2012 18:02:38 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Raila is now effective locked out of Central, RV and Parts of western.. Coast may fall soon and then we can say Former PM was a boisterous man who wanted to be president but was stopped dead on tracks by Tribal supremacy coalitions

This just shows how desperate some people are getting. Raila must be the most hated politician in Kenya.

If Raila was this unpopular and did not stand a chance, then why bother to spend resources trying to unite seven presidential candidate who are more popular than himself in their individual zones to face him?

Those provinces you quote no longer count much in analyzing the presidential election. Let's talk about counties which is what the constitution recognizes. Can Peter Kenneth, Karua, Wamalwa, Ruto, Tuju or Kalonzo effortlessly garner 25% in 24 counties of Kenya, let alone the 50+1 required for one to be declared president? And if they do not, will those who voted for them automatically as individuals vote for any other candidate except Raila in a run-off?

[danieldotwaweru]

Jan 26, 2012 21:59:32 GMT 3 Omwenga said:

When the people who know you the best reject you, there is no reason those who don't know you that well should vote for you in a nationwide election.

Al Gore won a majority vote in 2000 but was not sworn as president because he lost his home state of Tennessee.

You habitually write nonsense, but I thought this one shouldn't be allowed to pass. Good politicians are often rejected by their compatriots for reasons that the rest of us would do well to ignore. The best example I can think of just now is Obasanjo, who has usually been very unpopular with Yoruba---he actually lost his home region massively in the 1999 election.

[affirmed]

Njamba,

I agree with you on the score that Raila is unlikely to get much from Central as of now, albeit he should still campaign there because in the end even if he wins without Central vote, I believe he will strive to be the president of all Kenyans and seek to end this ethnic divide that has been perpetuated by all of our presidents since independence. There is serious need to reflect on how we as a country can move forward and minimise the impact of tribalism in our politics. It is truly sad that tribalism is the prism through all things are viewed in Kenya.

Although, I am tempted to agree with you that Raila is unlikely to get many votes from Central province I would be hesistant to firm on that conclusion. Right now things are hot, but as things settle down, emotions will calm and with sober reflection all things are possible. Even those who are fuming against Raila know quite well that Uhuru's case went forward because of NSIS reports and Mungiki who turned against their godfather. And I am sure the same NSIS are helping to shape that line of argument against Raila in order to deflect anger that should otherwise be directed at Kibaki by his own community and the country at large.

However, I can't rule out a major fallout within the ruling ethnic class as bitterness begins to sink that Kibaki failed to protect his "warrior". Thus, instead of seeing it through the lens of tribalism and region, don't rule out an intra-ethnic and intra-regional feud that will engulf the community as Kibaki proceeds to peaceful retirement leaving Uhuru in the Hague. Don't rule out a debate beginning within the community in terms of: was the second term of Kibaki worth the death, suffering, and Hague it brought on the sons and daughters of the House of Mumbi -- time is everything, let's wait and see! Well, the riders and presidential standard crossed Chania, but with what consequences?

On RV, parts of Western, Coast- I respectfully disagree. RV is very cosmopolitan with the Kalenjin subtribes, Kikuyu, Luyia, and Maasai, etc. Yes, one of the Kalenjin sub-tribes, Nandi, is impacted. For sure, this is likely to spill over to other Kalenjin sub-tribes and will definitely affect his vote margins. But I would be hesitant to assert that they will vote en masse against Raila entirely on the basis of Ruto case. The future is as important as the past. The 2007 violence was more than Raila -- it had a lot to do with material conditions existent in RV. It is gaining ground in Coast as well. That has not been solved. And will unlikely be resolved to the satisfaction of the "indigenous" communities.

The TJRC has been going around the country and you see strong sentiments from Coast and RV about Land and Devolution - what does that script tell you? And they have ben very specific about who, how, and when their land was taken. People and communities are first and foremost invested in their material existence and welfare. To assume that a Mtaita or a Digo or Ole Moyoi will sacrifice his/her interest because of Hague when none of them is there and their constant fear of losing or regaining what they perceive to have been taken from them is to suspend belief or to simply relegate analysis to the domain of euphoria and anger completely oblivious of the material conditions that informed the upheaval that engulfed our country in 2007. I don't know parts parts of Western that are aggrieved by the Hague verdict whose votes Raila has lost. Luyia's who were displaced haven't been given priority as settlement has been ethnicised!

In a nutshell -the issue of who will get votes where is complex and will require sober reflection and analysis in the weeks and months to come. We still don't know the presidential candidates who will be cleared and what will be at the time the election is called!

Jan 26, 2012 18:02:38 GMT 3 @njamba said:

Raila is now effective locked out of Central, RV and Parts of western.. Coast may fall soon and then we can say Former PM was a boisterous man who wanted to be president but was stopped dead on tracks by Tribal supremacy coalitions