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Post by johns on Mar 25, 2012 22:41:18 GMT 3
LOSE OR WIN MUDAVADI IS IN ODM TO STAY It is getting to a point of frustration when many political pundits, self proclaimed analysts and even political junkies like me who venture to give an opinion but refuse to think outside the box in their opinion of Mudavadis options should he lose his quest to be ODMs flag bearer for 2012 general election. I agree that if this election were about electing just one public official and you have a government, then all these suppositions of Musalias defection to some unknown alliance where he runs against his current boss and defeat him courtesy of the tribal ganging of Kikuyus, Kalenjins and Luhyas would be attainable, but this coming election is not only about that but more. It appears that most people fail to grasp the stringent requirements needed for one to be declared president as contained in our newly minted constitution. If Mudavadi were to loose to Raila in the ODM election, i am sure he (Mudavadi) has already figured it out that he would not have the whitheral and time to mount a succesful campaign countrywide on whatever party he may adopt to run on as a presidential candidate. For the next president to be succesful in terms of governance and also meeting the threshold as required by the constitution, he and his party must have representation all the way from local level to county level and finally the national level. To attain these one must belong to an existing national party that enjoys entrenched support at local level and within multiple layers of networks accross counties. A new party can not produce these desired outcome, may be at the presidential level only if the tribal considerations becomes the deciding factor. Lets say Mudavadi joined NARC and ran with Ngilu, how does he win people to vote for NARC candidate in places where it has never had a presence on the ground? Because that is what he will need to do to have a government assuming he wins the presidential election. Is it not laughable when you hear Uhuru or Ruto saying they will back Musalia? Are they willing to ask their people to vote for Musalias candidates in areas where they hold sway so as to see Mudavadi form the next government? And which party might that be, that will see Kikuyu nation, Kalenjin nation and Luhya nation use as a focal point where anti Raila voters come together? Musalia may be so many things to people but being stupid and unthoughtful is not one of them. He knows that the only way he can become president and govern is through a party with roots on the ground and that at the moment can only be accessed through ODM. I urge odmers to start taking him serious when he say that he is not going anywhere and the reason he is doing this is to expand the democratic space within the party. To some people Musalias demands might look dictatorial especially when interpreting them in a linear dimension as either his way or the highway. But we have to look into them using a wider scope not the narrow lenses which we often dorn while looking at the many myriads ways confronting kenya. How is he expected to deal with useless psychophants like Midiwo or Kajwang who give education a bad name and value? I am glad that because of his insistence the party leader has done this: www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Raila+allies+soften+stance+open+talks+with+Mudavadi+camp+/-/1064/1368400/-/4fe07wz/-/index.htmlMy only concern with Musalia's right now is in one area; he must be seen by those he seek their support to stand for their values. The ODM fraternity wants to see him defending the partys principles and interests, this can not be left to Raila Odinga alone; that is if Musalia still want to be their flagbearer.
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Post by johns on Apr 4, 2012 23:10:32 GMT 3
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Post by mzee on Apr 5, 2012 0:11:20 GMT 3
Its ok to open democratic space and its fine that MUdavadi is accomodated But what happens in the event that he loses to Raila? Will the slot of running mate also be contested in the same manner? If not why? What if either candidate loses both?
Changing nomination rules is good but comes with risks.
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Post by johns on Apr 5, 2012 1:06:37 GMT 3
Its ok to open democratic space and its fine that MUdavadi is accomodated But what happens in the event that he loses to Raila? Will the slot of running mate also be contested in the same manner? If not why? What if either candidate loses both? Changing nomination rules is good but comes with risks. Mzee, Democratic competetion should not be feared by anyone who ascribe to a healthy environment of engagement. I am not sure and you may correct me if i am wrong on this, -- i am not aware at all that ODM lacks individuals who can lead it to a prosperous future without Musalia or Raila Odinga being their leaders. The point i am trying to make is; as long as they reaffirm that the party is bigger than each one of them and lend support to the one picked by the party, then things will remain constant. So that should take care of your concern about either candidate losing both slots. I also do not think that the position of running mate is open to election, that is a privillaged position the party bestows on the flagbearer to make by hoping that he would pick the right person who would make the ticket irresisstible to voters. Unedited
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Post by Titchaz on Apr 5, 2012 5:23:09 GMT 3
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Post by mzee on Apr 5, 2012 9:55:11 GMT 3
Its ok to open democratic space and its fine that MUdavadi is accomodated But what happens in the event that he loses to Raila? Will the slot of running mate also be contested in the same manner? If not why? What if either candidate loses both? Changing nomination rules is good but comes with risks. Mzee, Democratic competetion should not be feared by anyone who ascribe to a healthy environment of engagement. I am not sure and you may correct me if i am wrong on this, -- i am not aware at all that ODM lacks individuals who can lead it to a prosperous future without Musalia or Raila Odinga being their leaders. The point i am trying to make is; as long as they reaffirm that the party is bigger than each one of them and lend support to the one picked by the party, then things will remain constant. So that should take care of your concern about either candidate losing both slots. I also do not think that the position of running mate is open to election, that is a privillaged position the party bestows on the flagbearer to make by hoping that he would pick the right person who would make the ticket irresisstible to voters. Unedited John, I’m not saying that there is no other leader in in ODM other than the two. What I’m saying is that Mudavadi became RAOs running mate because he was second in the nomination for the chief flag bearer. RAO did not pick him as such, because if Ruto had become second he would have been the deputy. As I understand it, Mudavadi is trying to change the nomination rules. This might simply mean that he won’t be an automatic running mate in the event that he does not beat RAO. Should the seat of running mate be contested, there is a possibility that a Rift Valley (which has the highest number of delegates) MP such as Franklin Bett might beat him. This argument might sound simplistic but is a possibility. That’s why I say that changing nomination rules comes with risks. I however wish Mudavadi well.
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Post by kamalet on Apr 5, 2012 10:12:46 GMT 3
Johns
You have said the following:
For the next president to be succesful in terms of governance and also meeting the threshold as required by the constitution, he and his party must have representation all the way from local level to county level and finally the national level. To attain these one must belong to an existing national party that enjoys entrenched support at local level and within multiple layers of networks accross counties. A new party can not produce these desired outcome, may be at the presidential level only if the tribal considerations becomes the deciding factor.
There is no where in the constitution that provides for this. As long as a party qualifies for registration under the Political Parties Act, once it fields a candidate only the 25 out of 47 rule applies.
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Post by mintos on Apr 5, 2012 10:16:23 GMT 3
Party resolves to amend the contentious clause. So how is it that it is being reported that Mudavadi and Raila struck a deal?
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Post by mzee on Apr 5, 2012 11:11:30 GMT 3
Party resolves to amend the contentious clause. So how is it that it is being reported that Mudavadi and Raila struck a deal? lazy journalists, as usual
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Post by adongo23456 on Apr 6, 2012 0:01:48 GMT 3
Now what will the rumour mongers and peni mbili analysts and pundits do. Here we go: www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ODM+to+pick+flagbearer+in+wards+/-/1064/1380940/-/iho3okz/-/index.htmlThe ODM presidential candidate competition which was hijacked by all the desperate forces running all over the place is probably the best thing that happened to ODM in a little while. They needed it for many reasons, one of which being the fact that Mudavadi is better of not being seen as a Raila lap dog. Whether Mudavadi loses the nomination or wins it he has established his stance and standing in the party. His will no longer owe his position in the party to the "party leader" but to his showing in the nominations. Raila after all is pushing close to 70 years. Mudavadi run into the big problem in the country today. Experts of tribal math and a whole bunch of ethnic chauvinists have come out with the new idea of individuals who think they have certain tribal support, do not need to be part of any serious political parties, in fact they destroy every party they are in and then they declare their candidacy and start looking for a party to sponsor them. I also think the Raila and Mudavadi combo is sellable. Raila is the man with the big stick who speaks his mind and takes chances, something he has paid dearly for. Mudavadi is the soft spoken guy who does not scare the mischief makers too much. That is OK, after all the country is for all of us. What really matters now is that the election is done right and I like the idea that they will have the IEBC run the elections for them. They have to do this properly and ODM may very well be the only party where leadership contestants join forces and run as a team. The other parties all have designated owners and the rest are just manambas to make noise. The G7 joke is going to crumble to pieces as all and any politician there who wants to run for office and is not caught in the ICC mess will run on the myriad other parties they have.
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Post by johns on Apr 6, 2012 0:18:37 GMT 3
Now what will the rumour mongers and peni mbili analysts and pundits do. Here we go: www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ODM+to+pick+flagbearer+in+wards+/-/1064/1380940/-/iho3okz/-/index.htmlThe ODM presidential candidate competition which was hijacked by all the desperate forces running all over the place is probably the best thing that happened to ODM in a little while. They needed it for many reasons, one of which being the fact that Mudavadi is better of not being seen as a Raila lap dog. Whether Mudavadi loses the nomination or wins it he has established his stance and standing in the party. His will no longer owe his position in the party to the "party leader" but to his showing in the nominations. Raila after all is pushing close to 70 years. Mudavadi run into the big problem in the country today. Experts of tribal math and a whole bunch of ethnic chauvinists have come out with the new idea of individuals who think they have certain tribal support, do not need to be part of any serious political parties, in fact they destroy every party they are in and then they declare their candidacy and start looking for a party to sponsor them. I also think the Raila and Mudavadi combo is sellable. Raila is the man with the big stick who speaks his mind and takes chances, something he has paid dearly for. Mudavadi is the soft spoken guy who does not scare the mischief makers too much. That is OK, after all the country is for all of us. What really matters now is that the election is done right and I like the idea that they will have the IEBC run the elections for them. They have to do this properly and ODM may very well be the only party where leadership contestants join forces and run as a team. The other parties all have designated owners and the rest are just manambas to make noise. The G7 joke is going to crumble to pieces as all and any politician there who wants to run for office and is not caught in the ICC mess will run on the myriad other parties they have. Adongo, What happened yesterday is what i had foreseen a while would happen. Those who prayed and are still praying for the disintergration of ODM, where Mudavadi takes a walk, must be really disappointed following the unfolding harmony of resolutions reached and agreed by the two leading party contenders. I am beggining to enjoy watching how confused the nay sayers are spinning out their frustrations. Well, let them not say we did not tell them; that making Raila Odinga the person as your policy for kenya comes at a cost.
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Post by johns on Apr 6, 2012 0:31:13 GMT 3
Johns You have said the following: For the next president to be succesful in terms of governance and also meeting the threshold as required by the constitution, he and his party must have representation all the way from local level to county level and finally the national level. To attain these one must belong to an existing national party that enjoys entrenched support at local level and within multiple layers of networks accross counties. A new party can not produce these desired outcome, may be at the presidential level only if the tribal considerations becomes the deciding factor.There is no where in the constitution that provides for this. As long as a party qualifies for registration under the Political Parties Act, once it fields a candidate only the 25 out of 47 rule applies. Kamalet, I agree with your observation but you should note that i started that sentence with a qualifier ...., "to be sucessful in terms of governance and also meeting the ............". We know any Tom or Dick who marshalls his entire tribe to a person, stand a chance to be elected president, but the question is; can he govern succesfully with such a skewed support? That was the angle i chose to look at before even coming to the constitutional bench marks that must be attained for one to be declared president. May be now we can the discussion then
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Post by johns on Apr 6, 2012 0:34:32 GMT 3
Mzee, Democratic competetion should not be feared by anyone who ascribe to a healthy environment of engagement. I am not sure and you may correct me if i am wrong on this, -- i am not aware at all that ODM lacks individuals who can lead it to a prosperous future without Musalia or Raila Odinga being their leaders. The point i am trying to make is; as long as they reaffirm that the party is bigger than each one of them and lend support to the one picked by the party, then things will remain constant. So that should take care of your concern about either candidate losing both slots. I also do not think that the position of running mate is open to election, that is a privillaged position the party bestows on the flagbearer to make by hoping that he would pick the right person who would make the ticket irresisstible to voters. Unedited John, I’m not saying that there is no other leader in in ODM other than the two. What I’m saying is that Mudavadi became RAOs running mate because he was second in the nomination for the chief flag bearer. RAO did not pick him as such, because if Ruto had become second he would have been the deputy. As I understand it, Mudavadi is trying to change the nomination rules. This might simply mean that he won’t be an automatic running mate in the event that he does not beat RAO. Should the seat of running mate be contested, there is a possibility that a Rift Valley (which has the highest number of delegates) MP such as Franklin Bett might beat him. This argument might sound simplistic but is a possibility. That’s why I say that changing nomination rules comes with risks. I however wish Mudavadi well. Mzee, You and i basically want the same thing on this one, we only differ on the formula which would lead us to the same destination.
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Post by gemagema on Apr 6, 2012 1:15:39 GMT 3
Johns, you are very right, there is no way Mudavadi can survive outside the ODM umbrella. Me thinks Mudavadi is just playing hardball in order for RAO and ODM to take him seriously. Muda would like to be RAO's running mate, but those chances were seeming slimmer as RAO may have been considering a running mate from either kikuyu (GEMA) or RV (KAMATUSA). So Mudavadi is essentially trying to cut himself out as an important person in ODM---which culminates to, if he saves the party from crumbling, he may claim a right to being the running mate.
Also, he must have seen that G7's support for him was merely a selfish move, more keen on burying RAO than supporting him (Mudavadi). Particularly after Wamalwa was elevated to an important ministry, signalling that G7 may be juggling two Luhyas, hence nil surety for him from akina Uhuru camp
That is my take
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Post by moesha on Apr 6, 2012 4:10:50 GMT 3
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Post by kamalet on Apr 6, 2012 12:43:46 GMT 3
Johns You have said the following: For the next president to be succesful in terms of governance and also meeting the threshold as required by the constitution, he and his party must have representation all the way from local level to county level and finally the national level. To attain these one must belong to an existing national party that enjoys entrenched support at local level and within multiple layers of networks accross counties. A new party can not produce these desired outcome, may be at the presidential level only if the tribal considerations becomes the deciding factor.There is no where in the constitution that provides for this. As long as a party qualifies for registration under the Political Parties Act, once it fields a candidate only the 25 out of 47 rule applies. Kamalet, I agree with your observation but you should note that i started that sentence with a qualifier ...., "to be sucessful in terms of governance and also meeting the ............". We know any Tom or Dick who marshalls his entire tribe to a person, stand a chance to be elected president, but the question is; can he govern succesfully with such a skewed support? That was the angle i chose to look at before even coming to the constitutional bench marks that must be attained for one to be declared president. May be now we can the discussion then The tribal chieftains are looking beyond the first round and bank on their tribes in the event of a run off...that is when those numbers really matter!
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Post by mzee on Apr 6, 2012 12:57:06 GMT 3
I dont think that the above are talking for Mudavadi but themselves. They need a way of jumping ship the moment they are beaten at the nominations. Thats the way kenyan politics is. You have a party of choice and a "mbuss" to ride on in case you are defeated at the nominations. Now, if the nominations are too close to the elections, it makes matters difficult for party hoppers and that what they are trying to avoid.
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Post by nowayhaha on Apr 7, 2012 11:20:59 GMT 3
Mudavadi warns ODM of setback Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has warned that undemocratic nomination of candidates can cost ODM the best leaders, resulting in its defeat, even in areas where it has massive support. Mr Mudavadi, who is also the Local Government minister, said the party must urgently review nomination rules to create certainty and allow aspirants to prepare in advance to avoid losing talented candidates. Mr Mudavadi was addressing party delegates in Kisumu on Thursday evening. He spoke after Kisumu Town East MP Shakil Shabbir said the Deputy Prime Minister had been “adopted” into the party. According to the DPMPS, Mr Shabbir said resolutions of the National Executive Council meeting held on Wednesday that the party constitution be amended to allow Mr Mudavadi to contest the presidential nomination “were only” proposals. The council also resolved that the nominations be held at the grassroots. According to the DPMPS, delegates in Kisumu reacted angrily, telling Mr Shabbir not to portray Mr Mudavadi as an “illegitimate child in ODM. They also told him to stop suggesting that the party constitution will not be changed”. Share This Story 6Share Related Stories * Mudavadi demands ODM law changed * Orange party to meet over clause on polls * ODM to pick flagbearer in wards * Mudavadi urged to ditch ODM * PM welcomes Mudavadi’s challenge Mr Mudavadi ignored Mr Shabbir’s comments, saying that part of the changed reality was that the party had been battered by negative propaganda in some regions, leading to some hostility. He further said the party should be strengthened ahead of the next General Election. “We don’t have time to waste in self-praise. We must make early decisions on the nominations and create lead time to embark on serious campaigns,” said the DPM. www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Mudavadi+warns+ODM+of+setback+/-/1064/1381582/-/6hmu0a/-/index.html
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Post by nowayhaha on Apr 7, 2012 11:23:27 GMT 3
This here is the nightmare of Raila and his supporters . As you can see he is in the panic mode Mr Odinga asked the NEC members to reflect on the need to vary the number of delegates participating in the presidential nominations depending on the support the party commands in a given region.
He said it would be unfair for a region such as Central where the party does not command sizeable support to have the same number of delegates or more delegates than Western Province where the party enjoys massive support.
www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ODM+to+pick+flagbearer+in+wards+/-/1064/1380940/-/iho3okz/-/index.html
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Post by nalinali on Apr 7, 2012 12:41:02 GMT 3
This here is the nightmare of Raila and his supporters . As you can see he is in the panic mode Mr Odinga asked the NEC members to reflect on the need to vary the number of delegates participating in the presidential nominations depending on the support the party commands in a given region.
He said it would be unfair for a region such as Central where the party does not command sizeable support to have the same number of delegates or more delegates than Western Province where the party enjoys massive support.
www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ODM+to+pick+flagbearer+in+wards+/-/1064/1380940/-/iho3okz/-/index.htmlDo you have brains? At all?
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Post by nereah on Apr 22, 2012 17:34:22 GMT 3
johns, until the day wycliff announce his party ( which i can authoritatively state here is ngilu's narc)and in effect clinch that ticket, he is still in odm and your thread is as relevant. can he survive outside odm? hints to this answer are self evident in what some me included initially thought was a tact but which at a closer look is his lack of spine to walk his talk. here is ibrahim oruko(not a luo and no relations with my in-law from muhoroni constituency) coming to my rescue in dong justice to the musalia narrative. does he stand a chance(outside odm) www.the-star.co.ke/weekend/siasa/72323-does-he-stand-a-chance
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Post by mzee on Apr 22, 2012 18:07:57 GMT 3
nereah, if he joins Narc which is an affiliate member of ODM, then it looks as if he does not want to completely let go ODM. Remember that many who lost nomination in odm in the last elections joined Narc. Is this the strategy Mudamb is employing.
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Post by nereah on Apr 22, 2012 19:02:20 GMT 3
nereah, if he joins Narc which is an affiliate member of ODM, then it looks as if he does not want to completely let go ODM. Remember that many who lost nomination in odm in the last elections joined Narc. Is this the strategy Mudamb is employing. mzee ;D, i hear you. wycliffe's story is a little complicated and depending on who you talk to here in nairobi, you may get edified or out-rightly agitated. earlier, this morning,my roundtable looked at some very interesting scenarios, the run offs and we were agreed as the man photographed argued in his column(but for different reasons) that wycliffe's pending exit in odm is good for kenyan democracy. you listen to our beloved administrator below and get a sense of where we are breaking from. back to your observation, wycliffe's defection to narc is strategic and could work both ways.for look of things, it may be a tactical move that wycliffe's handlers believe would confound odm and tie its hand but most importantly help stymie a possible scenario that informed ruto's constituency relations with odm and raila. my roundtable was of the view that agwambo ;D can garner the requisite 25 per cent in western with or without musalia and isnt worried of where luhyas will cast their vote if he ends up on a run-off with non western kenya candidate. with no guarantee that musalia would be the only luhya candidate, it wise mudavadi not to burn his bridges i odm even if he insist on proving our johns wrong by sticking his neck out outside odm. he needs raila more than raila needs him. now, there is a distinct possibility that kaluki is in this arrangement with wycliffe purely for expediency(going by her history) and barring any eventuality, will be doing agwambo's bidding. infact, either way, it still good for us in odm. i may be wrong as usual. unedited
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Post by johns on Apr 22, 2012 21:25:39 GMT 3
Wa Amadi,
I hear you loud and clear but there are certain things i am waiting to confirm before i dig deep with my centi Mbili about this Mudamba quandary. From where i am standing Mudavadi is baking his own cake and intends to eat it as well which is how it should be in a practical sense.
He wants to cling to his privillages as a DPM AND MINISTER as well, as long as he stays within the ODM circle which informs his thinking of sticking up with Ngilus NARC that has understanding with ODM.
I will get back after getting some juicy stuff from my source in Nairobi
Unedited
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Post by mzee on Apr 22, 2012 21:46:07 GMT 3
johns, I don't think that Raila will throw Mudavadi out of the local government ministry until he announces his party. Raila should leave him the position of DPM and give e.g Namwamba the ministry of local government. But lets all wait for his next move.
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