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Post by abdulmote on Jan 11, 2013 15:42:55 GMT 3
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Post by kamalet on Jan 11, 2013 17:03:42 GMT 3
I am surprised that you actually trust the Polls whilst the real dynamics on the ground tell a different story. I hope that you will respect the wishes of Kenyans when they elect a president and a deputy spending time in the Hague! I also hope that you are not that naive to believe the story that the suspects will be out of the country for the years being peddled by media. |
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Post by abdulmote on Jan 11, 2013 17:12:38 GMT 3
Ndugu Kamalet,
The polls are meant to provide us with a sample of what is happening on the ground. Besides, they have been shown not to be way off the mark pre last presidential elections. As to the media and their report on the time for the Hague required of the two ICC suspects, that can be verified through the ICC's own public information source and that shouldn't be a problem to access, I hope.
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euonyi
Full Member
Me, myself and I
Posts: 179
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Post by euonyi on Jan 11, 2013 17:28:45 GMT 3
Someone points out the following:
Two MPs defect from Jubilee to CORD: FAKE DEFECTIONS!!!
Opinion polls show CORD wins in round 1: FAKE OPINION POLLS!!
At this rate, if you're in Jubilee, kenya itself will be fake by March 4.
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Post by kamalet on Jan 11, 2013 17:31:59 GMT 3
Ndugu Kamalet, The polls are meant to provide us with a sample of what is happening on the ground. Besides, they have been shown not to be way off the mark pre last presidential elections. As to the media and their report on the time for the Hague required of the two ICC suspects, that can be verified through the ICC's own public information source and that shouldn't be a problem to access, I hope. Ndugu I would have agreed with you on the Polls if they actually were an honest reflection of what is happening on the ground! My problem is that they can cause grave danger to the country especially when they are as doctored as these and then the elections show a completely different story! Sadly Ambitho has yet to win my confidence. |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 17:38:43 GMT 3
My friend Abdulmote, take some time and study the details of this report and you will understand why the poll was designed to favor CORD. In RV for instance, they concentrated in areas such as Nakuru and Kitale, in western she zeroed on Busia and Bungoma, in Eastern she went to Machakos, Kitui, Meru and Isiolo while in NEP, she only looked at Garissa. If this does not tell you what Ambitho and Odhiambo were upto, I do not know what will.
We all agree this election will be won in round one and with a decisive margin, but by whom is what Ambitho is getting very wrong, I believe deliberately.
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Post by raiswakesho on Jan 11, 2013 17:44:07 GMT 3
It's quite easy to sit behind a desktop and claim the dynamics on the ground is different and yet provide no basis for such conclusion. Infotrak has actually spent its resources and sampled the data from the ground to form a scientific conclusion but oh no, it can't be true because RAO is on top! If the polls would have showed the opposite, the very folks would havel been dancing to victory tunes with ' we told you so' comments. Nway, we all know that no candidate has won the elections yet and until March 4TH, EACH COALITION/PARTY MUST CONTINUE HUNTING FOR VOTES IN EVERY CORNER OF KENYA.
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Post by kamalet on Jan 11, 2013 17:47:33 GMT 3
Perhaps with a bit more detail you will see how faulty the polls are! www.infotrakresearch.com/downloads/JAN%202013%20INFOTRAK%20POLL%20FINAL.pdfFirst a lot is masked by using provinces rather than counties. Secondly the selection of the counties to be polled is certainly not scientific or objective! e.g. How can Garissa be representative of all of NEP for which the vote is given to CORD? What about Eastern which is given to CORD and the sample is Machakos, Kitui, Meru and Isiolo? Would this be representative of the ground numbers against the sample? One can go on and on, and it is inevitable that the samples are all wrong! |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 17:52:05 GMT 3
Perhaps with a bit more detail you will see how faulty the polls are! www.infotrakresearch.com/downloads/JAN%202013%20INFOTRAK%20POLL%20FINAL.pdfFirst a lot is masked by using provinces rather than counties. Secondly the selection of the counties to be polled is certainly not scientific or objective! e.g. How can Garissa be representative of all of NEP for which the vote is given to CORD? What about Eastern which is given to CORD and the sample is Machakos, Kitui, Meru and Isiolo? Would this be representative of the ground numbers against the sample? One can go on and on, and it is inevitable that the samples are all wrong! Exactly my point above Kamale, thanks to your sharp eye and head. The more you read in between the lines the more it becomes clear to you that these guys had a predetermined outcome and then worked backwards. These guys are playing very dangerous games. |
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Post by raiswakesho on Jan 11, 2013 18:23:35 GMT 3
The research was carried out in 25 of the 47 counties which I think is representative enough but again before we start panicking, let's all understand that polls are a sample! Kamalet and Mwalimu obviously have no backround in this kind of work yet they'r trying more than enough to disapprove the results using art!
Anyone with resources to carry out a similar research should get away from the desktop/ipad or whatever and go to the field. It's interesting that we each have one vote yet we claim to know what everyone else will do come election day! WHAT'S THE BASIS OF THESE FOLKS REASONING?
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Post by bkichwa on Jan 11, 2013 18:34:08 GMT 3
Abdul,
Brace yourself for either depression or heart attack come March 4th, if indeed you are taking Ambitho's word seriously.
As Ruto said today in Baringo, Raila is an "Opinion Poll President" i.e. not in reality.
But March 4th isn't far away. Let's all wait and see the eventuality of real numbers.
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Post by Mobimba on Jan 11, 2013 18:35:13 GMT 3
I think we all aspire to have a good nights sleep. One devoid of nightmares. For some its polls. For others its 'feeling on the ground'.
Either way (and God willing), we all must wake up on March 5th. Until then, whatever makes you sleep soundly, believe in it.
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Post by abdulmote on Jan 11, 2013 18:54:05 GMT 3
Ndugu Kamalet, The polls are meant to provide us with a sample of what is happening on the ground. Besides, they have been shown not to be way off the mark pre last presidential elections. As to the media and their report on the time for the Hague required of the two ICC suspects, that can be verified through the ICC's own public information source and that shouldn't be a problem to access, I hope. Here it is: www.icc-cpi.int/iccdocs/doc/doc1538795.pdf |
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Post by phil on Jan 11, 2013 19:01:28 GMT 3
its a silly thing to pour cold water on Infotrack Polls and not being able to publish counter scientific numbers yourself.
In pulling Mudavadi out of ODM, the coalition of the suspects supported by the powers that be had hoped to weaken CORD in its traditional strongholds. That strategy has backfired badly and what's more is that CORD has in the last month or so increasingly gaining acceptance in previously hostile regions like Central and Kalenjin Rift Valley. Did you see CORD actually has 12% of CENTRAL and 36% in RV. And this is a fact that the polls report confirms.
It is definitely a TWO horse race and the third hose that some were trying to create in Mudavadi and Kenneth has totally failed. I hope you caught the footage from Kakamega CORD rally. Never mind that AMANI are desperately stalking CORD and they have camped in Western for the last three months.
The only surprise is some gullible Kenyans - 39% of them - actually have confidence in the coalition of the suspects.
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Post by OtishOtish on Jan 11, 2013 19:07:22 GMT 3
Ndugu Kamalet, The polls are meant to provide us with a sample of what is happening on the ground. Besides, they have been shown not to be way off the mark pre last presidential elections. As to the media and their report on the time for the Hague required of the two ICC suspects, that can be verified through the ICC's own public information source and that shouldn't be a problem to access, I hope. Here it is: www.icc-cpi.int/iccdocs/doc/doc1538795.pdfConsidering (a) initial estimates in other trials, (b) the speed at which things moved subsequently, and (c) certain steps that have been taken "streamline" certain processes and make them faster, with the Kenyan cases being the first (e.g. witness preparation): if I were to bet on how long these cases will take, it would be on something like 4 years (at best). Article 63(1) of the statute: The accused shall be present during the trial. |
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Post by raiswakesho on Jan 11, 2013 19:12:14 GMT 3
Bkichwa,
What makes you think that Hon. Uhuru is winning? Can you share with us your researched data?
The polls only gauge a snapshot of the population at a particular point in time, the intentional ignorance that's being displayed here is amazing!
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 19:41:57 GMT 3
The research was carried out in 25 of the 47 counties which I think is representative enough but again before we start panicking, let's all understand that polls are a sample! Kamalet and Mwalimu obviously have no backround in this kind of work yet they'r trying more than enough to disapprove the results using art! Anyone with resources to carry out a similar research should get away from the desktop/ipad or whatever and go to the field. It's interesting that we each have one vote yet we claim to know what everyone else will do come election day! WHAT'S THE BASIS OF THESE FOLKS REASONING? I am yet to see your scientific analysis of the poll. All I am reading from you is generic responses that any one can do. Break it down here as you understand the figures and let us debate. We have already, in a glance pointed out the ares of weakness in that poll. What do you say about that? |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 19:46:24 GMT 3
its a silly thing to pour cold water on Infotrack Polls and not being able to publish counter scientific numbers yourself. In pulling Mudavadi out of ODM, the coalition of the suspects supported by the powers that be had hoped to weaken CORD in its traditional strongholds. That strategy has backfired badly and what's more is that CORD has in the last month or so increasingly gaining acceptance in previously hostile regions like Central and Kalenjin Rift Valley. Did you see CORD actually has 12% of CENTRAL and 36% in RV. And this is a fact that the polls report confirms. It is definitely a TWO horse race and the third hose that some were trying to create in Mudavadi and Kenneth has totally failed. I hope you caught the footage from Kakamega CORD rally. Never mind that AMANI are desperately stalking CORD and they have camped in Western for the last three months. The only surprise is some gullible Kenyans - 39% of them - actually have confidence in the coalition of the suspects. You guys are in a deep slumber. You cannot lose Kakamega and Vihiga the way CORD is doing to Mudavadi and still claim 65% of support in western. Where exactly do these figures come from. Before Jirongo made public what was known privately, CORD did not even have a senatorial candidate in Kakamega county. Take time and look at the report on the link provided by Kamale and you will see the hidden agenda being propagated by Ambitho here. |
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Post by mank on Jan 11, 2013 19:57:01 GMT 3
its a silly thing to pour cold water on Infotrack Polls and not being able to publish counter scientific numbers yourself..... No it is not! Critiquing a statistical paper is a valuable act on itself, just like writing a good paper would be. In fact critiquing a bad paper is more valuable than writing one. Kamale raises very good questions about the representativeness of the sampling. While there is a chance that a good study could come up with the same conclusion as the study at hand (i.e. in a case where the apparent sampling bias turns out to be statistically insignificant), I would not take the results of this study seriously. |
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Post by abdulmote on Jan 11, 2013 20:00:07 GMT 3
I have pondered on the flaws raised on the poll by Ndugu Kamalet and our Mwalimu and I think they do have a point! Take for instance the reliance by Info on limiting their poll to provinces rather counties. I was wondering whether the intention was one of convenience instead of simply striving for clear and accurate results.
Secondly, the number of interviewees is restrictive in that respect as well. I don't see why they could not have increased that number to 3000, thereby doubling the same, and whilst doing so make the poll reflective of all the counties instead of just the 'selected' 50 percent! Cost and convenience come to mind and thereby a form of doubt can be cast on the accuracy of the results.
Having said that, the 50 percent covered has brought some results. I wonder what the other 'insignificant' 50 percent could have brought about!
I will wait for another poll, hopefully a better one if it will be.
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Post by raiswakesho on Jan 11, 2013 20:34:07 GMT 3
Mwalimu,
Why should I give my own scientific polling yet I'm not an expert in that field? I challenged those who are discrediting Inftotrak to go out to the field an carry out their own research. Unless someone can provide an alternative scientific polling with different results, I have all the reason to rely on what's been published and treat it for what it is!
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 11, 2013 21:19:19 GMT 3
I noticed there is the usual dispute on how scientific these polls are. I appeal to those who are meticulous on methodology and variable definition thus: Help me out folks: Over the last six months I have reached the conclusion that, whereas they are other variables influencing the choice of PORK, ETHNICITY will be { outside of Nairobi} the determinant factor amongst the big ethnic groups the GEMA, the Luo, the Luhya, and The Kalenjin. I therefore miss an opinion poll which breaks it down for me: 1. What percentage of Kikuyu voters will vote Jubilee? 2. What percentage of Jaluos will vote Cord? and so too Kalenjin and Luhya. I did not study mathematics, but I think ETHNICITY may be, in this case in Kenya of the March 4 election, a better scientific indicator of the voting preference, than the other ' statistically representative Kenyan'. I doubt there is anything definable as Kenyan in you mates! that is worth a scientific variable: that would be a holy grail tale!  The representative Kenya can then be confined to the minority tribes who give no damn anyway, coz they have no hope in hell of getting their man to the top job. Consequentially with a low turn out. Now, has any Jukwaaist given a dense amount of thought to using ethnicity as a scientific yard to predict party allegiance? [That is what zoning is all about anyway, but do we say!] |
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Post by reporter911 on Jan 11, 2013 21:19:44 GMT 3
its a silly thing to pour cold water on Infotrack Polls and not being able to publish counter scientific numbers yourself. In pulling Mudavadi out of ODM, the coalition of the suspects supported by the powers that be had hoped to weaken CORD in its traditional strongholds. That strategy has backfired badly and what's more is that CORD has in the last month or so increasingly gaining acceptance in previously hostile regions like Central and Kalenjin Rift Valley. Did you see CORD actually has 12% of CENTRAL and 36% in RV. And this is a fact that the polls report confirms. It is definitely a TWO horse race and the third hose that some were trying to create in Mudavadi and Kenneth has totally failed. I hope you caught the footage from Kakamega CORD rally. Never mind that AMANI are desperately stalking CORD and they have camped in Western for the last three months. The only surprise is some gullible Kenyans - 39% of them - actually have confidence in the coalition of the suspects. You guys are in a deep slumber. You cannot lose Kakamega and Vihiga the way CORD is doing to Mudavadi and still claim 65% of support in western. Where exactly do these figures come from. Before Jirongo made public what was known privately, CORD did not even have a senatorial candidate in Kakamega county. Take time and look at the report on the link provided by Kamale and you will see the hidden agenda being propagated by Ambitho here.  www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074798&story_title=Kenya-Poll:-Cord-leads-in-popularity |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 21:25:19 GMT 3
You guys are in a deep slumber. You cannot lose Kakamega and Vihiga the way CORD is doing to Mudavadi and still claim 65% of support in western. Where exactly do these figures come from. Before Jirongo made public what was known privately, CORD did not even have a senatorial candidate in Kakamega county. Take time and look at the report on the link provided by Kamale and you will see the hidden agenda being propagated by Ambitho here. The glaring methodological weaknesses in the poll aside, I just looked at the date of the polling and noticed that it was done even before Musalia put together the Amani Coalition and Eugine stood down for him in the presidential race. |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jan 11, 2013 21:32:16 GMT 3
Mwalimu, Why should I give my own scientific polling yet I'm not an expert in that field? I challenged those who are discrediting Inftotrak to go out to the field an carry out their own research. Unless someone can provide an alternative scientific polling with different results, I have all the reason to rely on what's been published and treat it for what it is! I do write in very simple English which should also be very easy to understand. I did not ask you to do any scientific polling, but to give us your scientific analysis of the figures Ambitho has already provided. I am glad Abdulmote, being the sober guy he always is, has already relooked at this thing and come to the conclusion that it is a very weak and quite frankly, a very unreliable poll. |
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