BANKKRUPT OF FRESH IDEAS?

[gakungu]

Kibaki’s poll team dwells on the past, not the future
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By Dominic Odipo


One old saying is familiar to military commanders and their political chiefs.

It comes in many forms and expressions, but its essence can be filtered into 10 words: War is too important to be left to the generals. If you leave war to the generals, it quickly degenerates into the theatre of the absurd.

Armoured cars will be sent to forests to fight a handful of guerillas and whole divisions deployed to counter three or four battalions. Defenceless enemy soldiers will be summarily shot and bombs dropped on mosquitoes.

The saying was most dramatically illustrated during the Korean War of the early 1950s. Noticing that thousands of Chinese soldiers were crossing the border every day to help the North Koreans, General Douglas MacArthur, the American supreme commander of the allied armies, proposed to drop an atomic bomb on China to stop the endless inflow of enemy personnel.

Though dropping an atomic bomb on China at that time would change the whole complexion and scope of the war seemed to escape MacArthur, one of the most brilliant military commanders of the age.

When his commander-in-chief, US President Harry S Truman, realised that MacArthur was going off tangent, he summarily dismissed him. Political sense had triumphed over military myopia and bravura.

What is the message here? It is simple. If war is too important to be left to the generals, then business, too, is too important to be left to mere businessmen. There is more to the life and inner dynamics of a nation that its business or economics. Or, to put it another way, a nation does not live on its growth domestic product alone.

But before trying to pull the strings together, let me tell you another war story. Probably no single individual did more to ensure Britain’s victory during the Second World War than its Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.

He led his country and commanded its military forces as no one else could have done at the time. Yet, at the moment of victory, a General Election was held and Churchill was voted out of office.

The British people saw very clearly that, even though Churchill was the best man for running the war, he was not the best man for managing peace. In modern parlance, he was not the best man to take the country to the next level.

President Kibaki’s campaign has put together a high-flying team whose primary objective is to ensure that the President is re-elected in December. The head of the team is a top businessman who, until the other day, was the chairman of the Kenya Private Sector Alliance.

The central strategy of the team rotates around raising billions of shillings to ensure the President’s re-election. It is labouring under the conviction that, in this country, shillings freely translate into votes.


But if business itself is too important to be left to the businessmen, then, surely, politics must be far too important to be left to mere businessmen.

Politics entails making gains here and accepting losses there. The modern politician easily recognises that the political process cannot be managed as a business purely on economic principles.

On the contrary — the business mind sees profits and losses. It consistently tries to maximise or optimise profits, and minimising or eradicating losses all together.

This means that when you put businessmen in the driving seat of a political campaign, you start off, as it were, on the wrong foot. In statistical terms, you make a mistake, not an error.

Has the President’s high-flying campaign team internalised the lesson of Churchill’s ignominious defeat immediately after the Second World War in 1945? Apparently not.

The team has already determined that its central message will be the President’s economic achievements in the past five years. Perceiving the President as an economic tiger, it is going to shout his tigritude. It is going to dwell on the past instead of the future.

If our economic gains had been so obvious, there would be absolutely no need to waste valuable time and money shouting about them. They would be evident to all. But that is not the real point.

The real point is this: In the voter’s mind, the future is much more important than the past. The past is now water under the bridge. Can the President lead this country to the next level?

If he can, how? Those are the make or break questions that the President’s team ought to address.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi

[miguna]

Gakungu,

Odipo's piece is very good, as always. It reminds me of a discussion I once had with our own Kamau at the Village Market more than two and a half years ago.

Kamau was generous enough to buy me and my friend lunch as he concentrated on his beer. During that conversation, Kamau told us that Kenyans will elect ANYBODY as long as that person floods them with money.

According to Kamau, "they" will ensure that Kenyans "elect" Saitoti after "Kibaki's term ends." When I inquired how they would execute such a Harculean job, his answer was: "Anybody can buy Kenyans with money." He added: "You will be amazed what money can do!"

That's why I shook my head earlier today when my intelligence informed me that they had spotted Biwott and Dr. Julia Ojiambo hiding somewhere at the Fairview Hotel, following through on Moi's and Kibaki's COMMANDS.

The old reactionaries do not get the message: Kenyans will never play second fiddle again on matters of their destiny!

So, let the money bags rain down! [unedited]

Miguna
=========================================================

[politicalmaniac]

So thats why at the rally in Tononoka, the ODM team struck pre-emptively by warning the wenye nchi, the MPK, to grab "their" money and run and vote in the "right" box.

So far a University has been dished out. Why now?

Then districts? Why canibalize and balkanize the country? Why this retrogressive move? Of what use is "sisi tuna ma district mingi" is if there is a problem funding their existence? I thought the civil service rolls were supposed to be trimmed

Is this their idea of devolution?

[kamalet]

.....and at that time, I still could not "buy" Miguna with the lunch!!!

Miguna has obviuosly twisted the story a bit to suit the circumstances, but that is fine!!!

Kenyans like to identify themselves with people that appear successful and look down upon the fellows that are not. Perhaps it is driven by their own desire to succeed in life. To many Kenyans, success is equated with how rich one is. It is for this reason we treated Kamlesh Pattni as a celebrity during the Goldenberg Inquiry or were even ready to think about the possibility of a Saitoti presidency in 2002 under Rainbow. It is the same reason 'poor' Kalonzo is branded as having a shell of a party whilst his opponent Raila is seen as successful. If Raila was in the Bufwoli Wakoli league of poor thinking and economy, he would be suffering the same fate like that of Kalonzo.

So if you have money, then it is likely that you could succeed politically.......!

[osirisisgod]

Does anyone know the provenance of Raila's Ksh 4 billion as reported recently in the Standard? Just asking?

Anyhow, I could not make sense of Odipo's article. Like many people with a not so good reading of history he understands very little about the workings of British Politics. Churchill was not voted out of office after World War II, his party was. Even then the analogy makes no sense with the case of Lee Karuri. SO he says war is too important to be left to generals? And should instead be left to the politicians? And he says Churchill won WW2 so he could not manage the peace? Should it not then follow that excactly what DP needs to win the election is a fresh set of ideas from business people who are not politicians?

Now who has no fresh ideas?

[gakungu]

ODM MUST USE THE TEN POINT CASE TO BEAT KIBAKI.

„ÏNew constitution: Bomas draft must be the rallying point.
„ÏDevolution of power and resources- They must shred into pieces assertion that CDF 2.5 % is the system of devolution we wanted. They should refer the public to the bomas provision. They should also refer the North Eastern, Coastals and other marginalized areas to the equalization clause that was in the Bomas Draft but deleted in the Wako draft.
„ÏCorruption: Anglo leasing, Goldenberg, Ken Ren Fertilizer among others.
„ÏInsecurity: Mt. Elgon killing fields, Mungiki gory killings in central Kenya, mathare killings etc.
„ÏTribalism: Two perfect examples; Sacking of a brilliant Planning Minister Anyang¡¦ Nyong¡¦o for opposing Wako draft but quite ironically reinstating ministers saddled with graft allegations based on their tribal origin. Two, despite the mandatory retirement age of 55 years former Permanent Secretaries who were beyond this age were recalled but quite ironically they come from same region, namely, Karega Mutahi, Mwongela, Muthaura and Nyoike. Don¡¦t forget all these guys served under the previous regime. Ironically, Dr. Sally Kosgey who had not reached retirement age was sacked for having worked under the previous regime. Previous regime was just a disguise for tribalism. There are other many instances.
„ÏPress freedom: Standard raid, Closure of Kass Fm, jamming of KISS FM and Nation raid by first lady. No minister has been sacked.
„ÏPoverty levels: Under 1996 Economic survey 12.8 people were living in abject poverty while 2006 one shows 16.8 people are living below poverty line.
„ÏInflation: Example: Page 120 of Bureau of statistic 2006 guide shows average cost of milk per litre to farmers was Ksh. 15.50 in 1998 and in 2006 it average cost was Ksh. 16.00. Note that, in 1998 the cost of a packet of Unga was about Ksh.30.00 but Ksh. 60.00 in 2006. So a farmer needed to produce only 2 litres to buy a Unga but double the yield to buy the same basic commodity 10 years later. No wonder billions of shillings is to be spent to convince these farmers that they are doing very well under Kibaki. ODM must take these basic realities to farmers.
„ÏLand Reform: The land reform must remain key plank of this campaign. This is a key factor of production and radical reforms must be carried out.
„ÏJob creation &SPORTS: A master plan to reform this sector and provide employment to the youth. Kibaki regime has failed to inspire in this area especially as far as soccer is concerned. In addition ODM must show that jobs will be created in the rural areas through devolved resources.

[miguna]

kamalet said:

.....and at that time, I still could not "buy" Miguna with the lunch!!!

Miguna has obviuosly twisted the story a bit to suit the circumstances, but that is fine!!!

Oh Kamau, that is hilarious! You actually bought me in your dreams. What a day that would be!

Anyhow, before you can run away back to your drinking holes, it would have served your interests better if you had smply PRESENTED THE FACTS that prove that I TWISTED the story to serve the "changed" circumstances.

The only thing that has really CHANGED is that at that time, most of the ODM contingent were still in Narc because they couldn't expect that Kibaki would bury himself in such DECEPTION, TRIBALISM AND CORRUPTION.

Like your other kindred, your attempt can only give you an "F." Please try again...You have a lot of potential. But you need to be focused.

You are not performing your function very well. [unedited]

Miguna

=======================================

[politicalmaniac]

gakungu said:

ODM MUST USE THE TEN POINT CASE TO BEAT KIBAKI.

„ÏNew constitution: Bomas draft must be the rallying point.
„ÏDevolution of power and resources- They must shred into pieces assertion that CDF 2.5 % is the system of devolution we wanted. They should refer the public to the bomas provision. They should also refer the North Eastern, Coastals and other marginalized areas to the equalization clause that was in the Bomas Draft but deleted in the Wako draft.
„ÏCorruption: Anglo leasing, Goldenberg, Ken Ren Fertilizer among others.
„ÏInsecurity: Mt. Elgon killing fields, Mungiki gory killings in central Kenya, mathare killings etc.
„ÏTribalism: Two perfect examples; Sacking of a brilliant Planning Minister Anyang¡¦ Nyong¡¦o for opposing Wako draft but quite ironically reinstating ministers saddled with graft allegations based on their tribal origin. Two, despite the mandatory retirement age of 55 years former Permanent Secretaries who were beyond this age were recalled but quite ironically they come from same region, namely, Karega Mutahi, Mwongela, Muthaura and Nyoike. Don¡¦t forget all these guys served under the previous regime. Ironically, Dr. Sally Kosgey who had not reached retirement age was sacked for having worked under the previous regime. Previous regime was just a disguise for tribalism. There are other many instances.
„ÏPress freedom: Standard raid, Closure of Kass Fm, jamming of KISS FM and Nation raid by first lady. No minister has been sacked.
„ÏPoverty levels: Under 1996 Economic survey 12.8 people were living in abject poverty while 2006 one shows 16.8 people are living below poverty line.
„ÏInflation: Example: Page 120 of Bureau of statistic 2006 guide shows average cost of milk per litre to farmers was Ksh. 15.50 in 1998 and in 2006 it average cost was Ksh. 16.00. Note that, in 1998 the cost of a packet of Unga was about Ksh.30.00 but Ksh. 60.00 in 2006. So a farmer needed to produce only 2 litres to buy a Unga but double the yield to buy the same basic commodity 10 years later. No wonder billions of shillings is to be spent to convince these farmers that they are doing very well under Kibaki. ODM must take these basic realities to farmers.
„ÏLand Reform: The land reform must remain key plank of this campaign. This is a key factor of production and radical reforms must be carried out.
„ÏJob creation &SPORTS: A master plan to reform this sector and provide employment to the youth. Kibaki regime has failed to inspire in this area especially as far as soccer is concerned. In addition ODM must show that jobs will be created in the rural areas through devolved resources.

gakungu, the idea is to pound, pound pound these talking points into the amnesiac heads of Kenyans.

24yrs of Moi hegemony is now hazy. We must keep it fresh.

Also keep pounding this
-AF scandal
-Artur scandal/Mungiki/EA standard raid
-Tribalism in the civil service

[job]

Odipo's piece, presents a simple message: Kibaki's team is dwelling on the PAST rather than the FUTURE. Specifically the portions of the past (record) they consider favourable.

Let me add that the same Kibaki 'past' presents quite a heavy baggage in terms of unfavourability: Anglo-Leasing scam, failure to provide jobs (> unemployment), sanitization of Goldenberg culprits, increasing prices of basic commodities (tripled or doubled), overt tribalism, grand corruption, high inflation (double-digit), increasing poverty (by 3% in 5 years -UNDP), nepotism, inequitable resource distribution, gross insecurity, Mungiki murders and extortions, Artur Mercenary saga, failure to provide promised housing quotas, and failure to enact a new constitution -that provides for devolution & land reforms etc . Let's not forget the Ken Ren fertilizer scam (Kibaki's own corruption-brainchild of the 70s) just inserted in this year's budget.

What is missing in their equation according to Odipo is - what promise the future holds.

Kibaki may not want to talk much about the future owing to many things.

Firstly, talking about the future involves offering more promises. Kenyans have come to know who the biggest reneger on promises is - following Kibaki's own dramatic U-turn with regards to the Bomas draft reform proposals that he himself promised to enact.

As if to solidify his penchant for disregarding pacts and promises ; Didn't Kibaki promise a lean government? Didn't he promise to serve only one transition term? Didn't he promise to end tribalism and usher in nationalism? Didn't he promise 500,000 jobs annually? Didn't he promise hundreds of thousands of housing units yearly?

Even after his referendum humiliation, didn't Kibaki promise to "listen" to the majority voice and facilitate the enactment of a more favoured Katiba? Kibaki knows Kenyans can read his pattern of breaking promises, so he'd rather only point towards portions of his favourable record.

That's partly why team Kibaki's campaign has to cunningly dwell only on the favourable-past, rather than; the future or the past-in-totality! The message will be debunked, trust this word.

The future also presents yet another big problem for Kibaki and his cohorts: Just what promising future for Kenyans does the "Jurassic" team of billionaire octagenarians and septuagenarians: Kibaki, Michuki, Karume, Nyachae, Munyao, etc inspire to the nation? Absolutely NO FUTURE. They'd rather talk about their nostalgic past -which ironically may not have been any cozy for the Kenyan majority.

These are fellas who are looking at where and how to rest their heads for sunset, not how to strain their cerebra in inspiring new, creative, innovative, and feasible visions for the complex and technologically advanced future. That's the reality!

Now, talking of Kibaki's love for the past - ever dreams of his days in the Kenyatta regime- Who is Kibaki's new recruit for his campaign. None other than Mzee Kipkorios Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, another "sunsetter" and Museum-bound Muthee.

What lecture can Moi offer to Kenyans about OUR FUTURE? Moi's only unfinished political business THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE FUTURE, is the prospect of his own son GIDEON MOI.

Moi hopes to ensure that his son Gideon Moi (he see's only the Moi family leading from Kalenjin) has a secured future VP spot, hanging on the tails of the scion of the Kenyatta family dynasty alongside cooperation and facilitation of Kibaki beyond 2012.

That is no future for Kenya! I can assure you Kenyans will not INSTALL upon their children's future a revisitation of Kenyatta and Moi (grabbing and oppression days) through dynasties forced down the nation's throat. Watch this space!

These handful of schemers have been previously handed humiliating defeats by alert Kenyans and will be in for yet another rude shock come December 2007.

The great news for Kenya is that the reactionaries/ conservatives/ status-quoists/ have all amalgamated into one bag of pinata. Wakenya should ready themselves with their "baseball bats" come 2007. It's going to be fun!

Gakungu,

Those ten campaign points are truly vogue. That's the ODM message!

Osisis,

On Odipo's Churchill-wartime analogy, I believe Odipo was drawing an important challenge that voters are occassionally faced with; between voting based on past record or voting based on presumed likelihood of the future. (What the past was like? vs What does the future hold?)

Thus he rightly observes that, whilst voters respected and liked Winston Churchill's wartime record, they were more broadly distrustful of his Conservative Party's post-war domestic and foreign policy agenda.

Thus the shock election defeat of the conservatives led by Winston Churchill and a landslide victory by the Labor party led by Clement Attlee despite Churchill's popularity during the war. In Britain, which has a parliamentary system of government, once a party loses,...the party leader (vying for PM) looses too, however popular he/she maybe.

Thus Kibaki's team dwelling on the past,.......will be confronted with the obvious question of -what does a future Kibaki presidency offer to Kenyans? Kibaki's team is avoiding the latter question against a backdrop of nationwide grumble about a bleak future with regards to :unequal resource distribution, tribalism, corruption, devolution, land reforms, escalating poverty and insecurity.
Job

[Mukwhasi]

I cant beleive that Moi of all the people still has the audacity to hold kenyans at ransom.Kibaki had a perfect chance to create a new nation which would have been reflective of his well "written" speech during inaguration but no the temptation of pleasing his real makers was more important than Kenya.Due to my good upbringing i will ignore MOi and spare him the wrath of my anger and disappointment right now.Imagine I R was still in Gov as minister of roads how far would we be in this five years?