There he goes,there he goes again!

[kingpin]

Raila and Kalonzo Had No Opponents, Only Political Escorts


By Makau Mutua
Nairobi

In the last several days, students of Kenyan politics have borne witness to an astonishing crystallisation of the race to State House.

First, former President Daniel arap Moi endorsed President Mwai Kibaki for re-election. Second, Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka were crowned presidential candidates for opposition ODM and ODM Kenya respectively.

But among these power barons, it is the indomitable Mr Odinga who has become the indisputable centre of gravity of Kenyan politics.

It is not rocket science to decipher why the political arena has been occupied by these men. Since the landslide victory of Narc over Kanu in December 2002, Mr Odinga has carried on an unremitting crusade to become Kenya's president.

But both Mr Moi and President Kibaki, two establishment figures who have worked together closely in the past, represent the bulk of the Kenyan elite that has always been uncomfortable with the populist and demagogic politics of Mr Odinga.


That is why President Kibaki and Mr Moi have found common cause against Mr Odinga, even though the two do not particularly like or respect each other.

In this battle of political titans, Mr Musyoka has refused to be swatted away. Mr Odinga's biggest miscalculation - the one fatal mistake that may cost him the presidency - is the alienation of Mr Musyoka.

Mr Musyoka enjoys neither the pedigree of Mr Odinga - the scion of the late Oginga Odinga - nor the vast wealth and political connections of either President Kibaki or Mr Moi.

But he is a self-believer who may just split the opposition vote enough to allow a victory by Mr Kibaki. It was partly Mr Odinga's proclivities that drove the more conservative Mr Musyoka away.

Mr Musyoka's exit, coupled with the departures of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Dr Julia Ojiambo, and Ms Nazlin Umar, has immeasurably hurt Mr Odinga's quest for State power.

There was one sure scenario in which Mr Odinga could have booted President Kibaki out of State House in December. He would have had to hold the 2005 ODM referendum grouping together without any defections. But this was a tall order, even for a master strategist like Mr Odinga.

Frankly, I cannot see how Kanu under Mr Kenyatta with Mr Moi pulling the strings could have stayed in ODM. Mr Kenyatta was sure to lose his Gatundu South seat if he had stuck with ODM. It would have been implausible for Mr Moi - the man who had detained Mr Odinga for more than a decade - to help him capture power. For Mr Moi, this would have been the equivalent of handing Mr Odinga a loaded gun.

Even though the departures of Mr Moi, Mr Kenyatta, and Kanu have a class-based logic, I am sure Mr Odinga rues his own impetuousness in dealing with Mr Musyoka.

The nail in that coffin came in July in Mombasa when Mr Odinga permitted his hammer-wielding supporters to humiliate Mr Musyoka. That was where ODM-K crossed the Rubicon. Mr Odinga probably got bad advice from the many supplicants who surround him.

In my book, Mr Musyoka was never a serious threat for the ODM nomination, which was Mr Odinga's for the taking. Rather than denigrate Mr Musyoka, Mr Odinga should have instead granted his many requests, and then beaten him fairly and squarely - as he was destined to - for the ODM-K nomination.

It would not be a paradox if the most gifted politician in Kenya ended up tripping himself. It is true that Kenyans want an ambitious leader, but they are often suspicious of those with a mean and hungry look, two unflattering traits that Mr Odinga often exhibits.

The country seems to be ready for a gentle but firm leader. It is Mr Odinga's demeanour and style that makes many Kenyans wonder to what uses he would put the enormous state power available to a head of state.

On his way to the ODM coronation, Mr Odinga displayed every tool in his political arsenal. At times, he was cunning and full of guile. Then he was aggressive and pitiless in dealing with dissenters within ODM-K and among his competitors for the nomination. But Mr Odinga was also the master of manipulation, skilfully playing contenders off against each other. He is indefatigable and worked around the clock to soothe egos and keep ODM together.

But he is also a master showman whose ability to entertain both the public and the press is peerless. From the gas-guzzling Hummer to the loud attire and the colourful metaphors, he enthralled crowds.

It is the ODM nomination process that speaks volumes about Mr Odinga. In a stroke of political genius, Mr Odinga has kept the irascible Mr William Ruto, the Kanu Secretary General, and Mr Moi's insurgent nemesis in the Rift Valley, on board. Mr Ruto, once a darling of Mr Moi, has managed to entice a large number of Kalenjin members of Parliament to Mr Odinga's side. The heir apparent to Mr Moi among the Kalenjin, Mr Ruto has been promised the premiership in an Odinga government.

But I do not think Mr Odinga has any respect for Mr Ruto, whom he may regard as a necessary, if pliable, evil. But Mr Odinga understands that Mr Ruto is worth a chunk of votes in the populous Rift Valley Province.

Even as the nominations for ODM were conducted, Mr Ruto knew he had no chance. In fact, he was Mr Odinga's foot soldier, in spite of his candidacy. In the last several months, Mr Ruto and Mr Henry Kosgey, the Kalenjin chair of ODM, dropped all pretence of neutrality and openly campaigned for Mr Odinga.

Both have come out strongly against Mr Moi's endorsement of Mr Kibaki. Mr Kosgey has even termed Mr Moi irrelevant. That may be a gross understatement, given the fact that Mr Moi's patronage networks reach deep into the Rift Valley. It would probably be foolhardy for Mr Odinga and his Kalenjin sidekicks to prematurely write Mr Moi's political obituary.

Mr Najib Balala is another contender for the ODM presidency who acted like Mr Odinga's campaign aide. No one - not even his supporters in the Coast Province - regarded him as a serious candidate.

In fact, it was never clear why he opposed President Kibaki in the first place and followed Mr Odinga into ODM. Perhaps it was to counter Mr Taib Ali Taib, then Mombasa Mayor who is eyeing the Mvita seat. But for Mr Odinga, Mr Balala is a cute political trophy, even if he cannot alone deliver the Coast Province to ODM.

He gives ODM a veneer of acceptability among Muslims. I have a feeling that Mr Odinga would handsomely reward Mr Balala for being such a patsy and a willing decoy should he clinch the presidency. But the Coast is a fractured political terrain, and it is anybody's guess whether ODM will do well in the province.

Then there is Mr Joseph Nyagah, the Gachoka MP who claimed to carry the hopes of his people in the ODM sweepstakes. Of all the contenders, his candidacy is the most baffling. One of three prominent sons of Mr Jeremiah Nyagah, an influential independence leader in the Kenyatta and Moi regimes, Mr Nyagah is threatened with political extinction in Gachoka.

Reports indicate that the Rev Mutava Musyimi, the former Secretary General of the NCCK and a Kibaki confidante, is the man to beat in Gachoka. It befuddles me why Mr Nyagah thinks that he can be competitive on an ODM ticket in the Mount Kenya area. Mr Odinga tolerated Mr Nyagah, whom he considered a harmless sideshow, in the ODM race because he gave the party a more "national" outlook. But the biggest loser in the ODM presidential nomination - and the one man who may be more acceptable than Mr Odinga to the electorate - is Mr Musalia Mudavadi.

A rare gentleman in Kenyan politics, Mr Mudavadi has been plagued by charges of cowardice and indecisiveness ever since he allowed Mr Moi to break him and force him back into Kanu after he had joined Mr Odinga's Rainbow Alliance.

Mr Moi then appointed him Vice-President, a position he lost when an angry electorate voted him out of his Sabatia seat in the 2002 Narc wave. But in spite of enormous pressure from Mr Moi and President Kibaki's loyalists in Western Province, Mr Mudavadi has stuck to his guns in ODM.

In the days leading up to the ODM nomination, Mr Mudavadi insisted - unconvincingly - that he had a good shot at securing it.

If so, he is the only one who did not know that Mr Odinga had sewn it up months ago. Mr Odinga has promised Mr Mudavadi the vice-presidency, a position that does not excite the Luhya because three of their own - the late Michael Wamalwa, Mr Moody Awori, and Mr Mudavadi himself - have occupied it.

They regard it as a Pyrrhic victory and an insult to their presidential ambitions. This means that the Luhya vote will be split between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki. But for Mr Odinga, Mr Mudavadi is his biggest road kill because he has denied him the presidential nomination and yet managed to keep him - and a large chunk of the Luhya vote - within ODM.

The ODM nominations, which took place in the shadow of those by ODM-K, took a similar script. In ODM-K, there was no doubt that Mr Musyoka was the anointed son, or that Dr Julia Ojiambo was a mere political escort.

Like an accoutrement, Dr Ojiambo was there to give the event a false whiff of party democracy. Although Mr Musyoka has now established himself as one of three plausible presidential candidates, it is difficult to see a scenario in which he beats either President Kibaki or Mr Odinga. In all likelihood, his candidacy will open the door for President Kibaki's re-election - the way the split in FORD between Mr Kenneth Matiba and Mr Oginga Odinga in 1992 allowed Mr Moi to barely beat the fractured opposition.

The next three months promise to be exciting political theatre if the performances at the ODM nominations are any guide.

Raila's political acumen is proof that Jaramogi's blood is still coursing through the veins of Kenya's body politic. What is in dispute is whether the son possesses the father's genetic political fingerprint and spirit.

It is that difference that may make Raila Odinga's quest for the Kenyan presidency forever elusive.

If he loses the 2007 elections and properly slides into political oblivion, it will be because he put ambition over principle, convenience over ethics, myopia over vision, power over morality, and ethnicity over the nation.

As the progeny of Jaramogi, he will have squandered an unparalleled legacy.

If he wins the election - as is possible, though not probable - will he hearken to a higher consciousness and a superior intelligence? Or will he lead the country into d**nation? Let history be the judge.

Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo and Chair of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.

Source:The Nation
2 September 2007
Posted to the web 3 September 2007

[50cents]

There he goes again as expected of him. R must be causing this guy nightmarish dreams now that Kalonzo has turned out to a tribal leader

[Deleted]

Raila and Kalonzo Had No Opponents, Only Political Escorts


By Makau Mutua
Nairobi

In the last several days, students of Kenyan politics have borne witness to an astonishing crystallisation of the race to State House.

First, former President Daniel arap Moi endorsed President Mwai Kibaki for re-election. Second, Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka were crowned presidential candidates for opposition ODM and ODM Kenya respectively.

But among these power barons, it is the indomitable Mr Odinga who has become the indisputable centre of gravity of Kenyan politics.

At least Mutua acknowledges that Raila is indomitable before he proceeds to tell all manner of lies and tales about him.

It is not rocket science to decipher why the political arena has been occupied by these men. Since the landslide victory of Narc over Kanu in December 2002, Mr Odinga has carried on an unremitting crusade to become Kenya's president.

What else do you expect him to do? He is working to realize his goals and objectives.


But both Mr Moi and President Kibaki, two establishment figures who have worked together closely in the past, represent the bulk of the Kenyan elite that has always been uncomfortable with the populist and demagogic politics of Mr Odinga.


That is why President Kibaki and Mr Moi have found common cause against Mr Odinga, even though the two do not particularly like or respect each other.

Moi and Kibaki have found common cause because as has been said by many time and time again they have their corrupt histories to protect. Could it be that they are scared shit-less about what a Raila government would do about all the treasures they've robbed the Kenyan people of?


In this battle of political titans, Mr Musyoka has refused to be swatted away. Mr Odinga's biggest miscalculation - the one fatal mistake that may cost him the presidency - is the alienation of Mr Musyoka.

Musyoka alienated himself, with his demands and his shenanigans. We all saw these displayed in the local media.


Mr Musyoka enjoys neither the pedigree of Mr Odinga - the scion of the late Oginga Odinga - nor the vast wealth and political connections of either President Kibaki or Mr Moi.

But he is a self-believer who may just split the opposition vote enough to allow a victory by Mr Kibaki. It was partly Mr Odinga's proclivities that drove the more conservative Mr Musyoka away.

Why would Musyoka want to split the the opposition vote in favor of Kibaki? Could it be because he is pro status quo and the conservative old guard? If so, this clearly demonstrates that it is Musyoka who is power hungry for the sake of it and that he certainly doesn't have the interest of the Kenyan masses at heart. Musyoka is a grown man not a baby. How do Raila's proclivities drive him away. And thanks to Mutua for reminding us that Musyoka is more conservative than Raila.


Mr Musyoka's exit, coupled with the departures of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Dr Julia Ojiambo, and Ms Nazlin Umar, has immeasurably hurt Mr Odinga's quest for State power.

There was one sure scenario in which Mr Odinga could have booted President Kibaki out of State House in December. He would have had to hold the 2005 ODM referendum grouping together without any defections. But this was a tall order, even for a master strategist like Mr Odinga.

Frankly, I cannot see how Kanu under Mr Kenyatta with Mr Moi pulling the strings could have stayed in ODM. Mr Kenyatta was sure to lose his Gatundu South seat if he had stuck with ODM. It would have been implausible for Mr Moi - the man who had detained Mr Odinga for more than a decade - to help him capture power. For Mr Moi, this would have been the equivalent of handing Mr Odinga a loaded gun.

Even though the departures of Mr Moi, Mr Kenyatta, and Kanu have a class-based logic, I am sure Mr Odinga rues his own impetuousness in dealing with Mr Musyoka.

Class based logic in their departures because Moi, Kenyatta have much to hide and fear from any progressive regime. Raila and others in ODM bent over backward in order to accommodate Musyoka.


The nail in that coffin came in July in Mombasa when Mr Odinga permitted his hammer-wielding supporters to humiliate Mr Musyoka. That was where ODM-K crossed the Rubicon. Mr Odinga probably got bad advice from the many supplicants who surround him.

How was it Raila's fault if the people, the ordinary people could not stand Musyoka? That is just being a cry baby.


In my book, Mr Musyoka was never a serious threat for the ODM nomination, which was Mr Odinga's for the taking. Rather than denigrate Mr Musyoka, Mr Odinga should have instead granted his many requests, and then beaten him fairly and squarely - as he was destined to - for the ODM-K nomination.

Exactly how did Raila denigrate Musyoka? Nobody could meet Musyoka's demands. ODM Kenya as a coalition with individual parties able to field their own candidates etc. Whatever!

It would not be a paradox if the most gifted politician in Kenya ended up tripping himself. It is true that Kenyans want an ambitious leader, but they are often suspicious of those with a mean and hungry look, two unflattering traits that Mr Odinga often exhibits.

Oh my goodness, here Mutua shows his true colors. "mean and hungry look" what in the world is that supposed to mean?


The country seems to be ready for a gentle but firm leader. It is Mr Odinga's demeanour and style that makes many Kenyans wonder to what uses he would put the enormous state power available to a head of state.

Kenyans know that it can't be worse than what we've gotten from Kibaki and the other two presidents that we've had.


On his way to the ODM coronation, Mr Odinga displayed every tool in his political arsenal. At times, he was cunning and full of guile. Then he was aggressive and pitiless in dealing with dissenters within ODM-K and among his competitors for the nomination. But Mr Odinga was also the master of manipulation, skilfully playing contenders off against each other. He is indefatigable and worked around the clock to soothe egos and keep ODM together.

But he is also a master showman whose ability to entertain both the public and the press is peerless. From the gas-guzzling Hummer to the loud attire and the colourful metaphors, he enthralled crowds.


He also has a history of being on the people's side. It is also great that he doesn't stick to the European suit 24/7. And if we want to get petty and talk of bad taste in choice of attire, that trophy belongs to Lucy.


It is the ODM nomination process that speaks volumes about Mr Odinga. In a stroke of political genius, Mr Odinga has kept the irascible Mr William Ruto, the Kanu Secretary General, and Mr Moi's insurgent nemesis in the Rift Valley, on board. Mr Ruto, once a darling of Mr Moi, has managed to entice a large number of Kalenjin members of Parliament to Mr Odinga's side. The heir apparent to Mr Moi among the Kalenjin, Mr Ruto has been promised the premiership in an Odinga government.

But I do not think Mr Odinga has any respect for Mr Ruto, whom he may regard as a necessary, if pliable, evil. But Mr Odinga understands that Mr Ruto is worth a chunk of votes in the populous Rift Valley Province.

Mutua needs to give us proof that Raila doesn't respect Ruto. If Moi and Kibaki can come together to oppose Raila, and if as Mutua recognizes they actually can't stand each other who are the real opportunists?


Even as the nominations for ODM were conducted, Mr Ruto knew he had no chance. In fact, he was Mr Odinga's foot soldier, in spite of his candidacy. In the last several months, Mr Ruto and Mr Henry Kosgey, the Kalenjin chair of ODM, dropped all pretence of neutrality and openly campaigned for Mr Odinga.

Both have come out strongly against Mr Moi's endorsement of Mr Kibaki. Mr Kosgey has even termed Mr Moi irrelevant. That may be a gross understatement, given the fact that Mr Moi's patronage networks reach deep into the Rift Valley. It would probably be foolhardy for Mr Odinga and his Kalenjin sidekicks to prematurely write Mr Moi's political obituary.

Mr Najib Balala is another contender for the ODM presidency who acted like Mr Odinga's campaign aide. No one - not even his supporters in the Coast Province - regarded him as a serious candidate.

In fact, it was never clear why he opposed President Kibaki in the first place and followed Mr Odinga into ODM. Perhaps it was to counter Mr Taib Ali Taib, then Mombasa Mayor who is eyeing the Mvita seat. But for Mr Odinga, Mr Balala is a cute political trophy, even if he cannot alone deliver the Coast Province to ODM.

Mutua is a macho who feels the need to taunt Balala and Ruto both of whom understand that given Kenya's history Raila is more qualified than they are to be the next president. Mutua is mad that this time Raila won't be king maker to anyone.

He gives ODM a veneer of acceptability among Muslims. I have a feeling that Mr Odinga would handsomely reward Mr Balala for being such a patsy and a willing decoy should he clinch the presidency. But the Coast is a fractured political terrain, and it is anybody's guess whether ODM will do well in the province.

More macho taunts. A patsy and willing decoy?

Then there is Mr Joseph Nyagah, the Gachoka MP who claimed to carry the hopes of his people in the ODM sweepstakes. Of all the contenders, his candidacy is the most baffling. One of three prominent sons of Mr Jeremiah Nyagah, an influential independence leader in the Kenyatta and Moi regimes, Mr Nyagah is threatened with political extinction in Gachoka.

Reports indicate that the Rev Mutava Musyimi, the former Secretary General of the NCCK and a Kibaki confidante, is the man to beat in Gachoka. It befuddles me why Mr Nyagah thinks that he can be competitive on an ODM ticket in the Mount Kenya area. Mr Odinga tolerated Mr Nyagah, whom he considered a harmless sideshow, in the ODM race because he gave the party a more "national" outlook. But the biggest loser in the ODM presidential nomination - and the one man who may be more acceptable than Mr Odinga to the electorate - is Mr Musalia Mudavadi.

A rare gentleman in Kenyan politics, Mr Mudavadi has been plagued by charges of cowardice and indecisiveness ever since he allowed Mr Moi to break him and force him back into Kanu after he had joined Mr Odinga's Rainbow Alliance.

Mr Moi then appointed him Vice-President, a position he lost when an angry electorate voted him out of his Sabatia seat in the 2002 Narc wave. But in spite of enormous pressure from Mr Moi and President Kibaki's loyalists in Western Province, Mr Mudavadi has stuck to his guns in ODM.

In the days leading up to the ODM nomination, Mr Mudavadi insisted - unconvincingly - that he had a good shot at securing it.

If so, he is the only one who did not know that Mr Odinga had sewn it up months ago. Mr Odinga has promised Mr Mudavadi the vice-presidency, a position that does not excite the Luhya because three of their own - the late Michael Wamalwa, Mr Moody Awori, and Mr Mudavadi himself - have occupied it.

They regard it as a Pyrrhic victory and an insult to their presidential ambitions. This means that the Luhya vote will be split between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki. But for Mr Odinga, Mr Mudavadi is his biggest road kill because he has denied him the presidential nomination and yet managed to keep him - and a large chunk of the Luhya vote - within ODM.

The ODM nominations, which took place in the shadow of those by ODM-K, took a similar script. In ODM-K, there was no doubt that Mr Musyoka was the anointed son, or that Dr Julia Ojiambo was a mere political escort.

Like an accoutrement, Dr Ojiambo was there to give the event a false whiff of party democracy. Although Mr Musyoka has now established himself as one of three plausible presidential candidates, it is difficult to see a scenario in which he beats either President Kibaki or Mr Odinga. In all likelihood, his candidacy will open the door for President Kibaki's re-election - the way the split in FORD between Mr Kenneth Matiba and Mr Oginga Odinga in 1992 allowed Mr Moi to barely beat the fractured opposition.

Only Musyoka and Mutua think that Musyoka has established himself "as one of three plausible presidential candidates". Talking of patsy, Ojiambo and Musyoka's job is to try as much as possible to undercut Raila's popularity in the interest of the likes of Kibaki and Moi.


The next three months promise to be exciting political theatre if the performances at the ODM nominations are any guide.

Raila's political acumen is proof that Jaramogi's blood is still coursing through the veins of Kenya's body politic. What is in dispute is whether the son possesses the father's genetic political fingerprint and spirit.

Yap. "Jaramogi's blood is still coursing through the veins..." That's because It Is Not Yet Uhuru.


It is that difference that may make Raila Odinga's quest for the Kenyan presidency forever elusive.

If he loses the 2007 elections and properly slides into political oblivion, it will be because he put ambition over principle, convenience over ethics, myopia over vision, power over morality, and ethnicity over the nation.

Straight up lies. Raila has a right to be ambitious without it being twisted as being unprincipled. He was principled enough when he toshaed Kibaki, then Mutua didn't label him unethical, myopic, power hungry or an ethnic chauvinist.


As the progeny of Jaramogi, he will have squandered an unparalleled legacy.

If he wins the election - as is possible, though not probable - will he hearken to a higher consciousness and a superior intelligence? Or will he lead the country into d**nation? Let history be the judge.

Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo and Chair of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.

Source:The Nation
2 September 2007
Posted to the web 3 September 2007

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[politicalmaniac]

MMUtua is a shrill for hire. The only difference being that this is a virulent anti JaLuo, anti R, arm chair analyst, who never contributed much to the advance of democracy. His demeaning personalization of R's demenour, his unrelenting attacks on R's quest for the Presidency is only a manifestation of his hatred for the guy. Its unfortunate that his personal animus is so virulent.
ka-loser KM is now facing stark reality that his campaign is a non starter and that his hot and cold overtures ot ODM wont go anywhere. He himself has now said he is in KANU and will troop there via a coalition.
Who cares
Let him go on.

[japuonjni]

The likes of mutua never disappoints, at least to those of us who look up to them to drive boredom out of the public square.

Theirs is the scorn of the elites that Raila has learn to wear as a badge of honour if to paraphrase the prominent American wag.

That said, I think Mutua and his ilks deserve some commendation, their propensity for deconstructing Raila notwithstanding.

Why? because by choosing not to sing Hossana to Raila when rest of the nation croons, the Mutuas of Kenya are simply raising the bar for Agwambo's public life.

It dawns on some of us( who have arrogated themselves the role of under guarding the national vessel that Raila represents) that what is meant for ridicule always end up for the good of our cause.

I therefore submit that Mutua is an underground Raila fanatic. Yes he is.

[aeichener]

Please, Kathure. Please.
No messianism outside the church.

A.

[JAHAATWACH]

At the Brink of Collapse


By Makau Mutua

Makau Mutua argues that Kenya's political class has failed to nurture a democratic, rule-of-law state in which meritocracy rather than identity is the most important variable and because of it Kenya is on the brink of collapse.

In December, President Mwai Kibaki of Kenya was controversially declared the winner in a rancorous election against Raila Odinga by a margin of several hundred thousand votes. Odinga has refused to concede defeat, charging that the election was stolen. In the last three weeks, gruesome violence has erupted in Odinga's strongholds, leaving more than 750 dead and 300,000 displaced. Kenya stands at the brink of collapse unless Odinga and Kibaki can accommodate each other.

Kenya, a country regarded in the West as a beacon of hope and stability in a turbulent region, is now gripped by genocidal violence for the first time since independence from Britain in 1964. Although the immediate trigger for the killings and pillage is the contested election results, the violence has deep historical roots. Kenya is an incoherent collection of some 40 ethnic groups that the British coerced into one state in 1896. It is the failure of those groups to forge a common Kenyan national identity that has come back to haunt East Africa's most powerful country.

Successive governments have either been unwilling or unable to imagine how one builds a nation out of disparate, previously independent groups. Kenya's presidents - Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi, and now Kibaki - have been men of limited ability and vision. They preferred to exercise power through ethnic cronyism and tribal manipulation.. Each deeply tribalized the state by openly favoring their ethnic elites at the expense of others.

Kenya's political class, which is lazy and opportunistic, has failed to nurture a democratic, rule-of-law state in which meritocracy rather than identity is the most important variable. That is why most Kenyans have not transferred their loyalties from the ethnic group to the state. Kenyan political parties are either personal vehicles for tribal barons or coalitions of ethnic elites. Neither Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement nor President Kibaki's Party of National Unity are driven by ideology or philosophical platforms. Rather, they are receptacles for their respective leaders and the ethnic groups supporting them.

Odinga cobbled the Orange Democratic Movement from the Luo, his ethnic group, the Kalenjin, who dominate the Rift Valley, and the Luhya - three of Kenya's largest five groups. Kibaki's Party of National Unity drew fanatical support from the Kikuyu, his own group, which is also the largest in the country. Historically, there has been bad blood between the Kikuyu and the Luo and the Kalenjin.

The Kalenjin, who have committed many atrocities against the Kikuyu in the Rift Valley, supported Odinga because he promised a quasi-federal government that would have given them control over land and the Kikuyu settlers. The Luo, who have a psychosis of victimization, had widely expected Odinga to be the first among them to lead the country.

These ethnic pathologies burst open in the aftermath of the elections that was conducted by mobilizing tribal anger and deep-seated grievances. Both the Orange Democratic Movement and the Party of National Unity made naked appeals to ethnic passions. The post-election violence has pitted the Kikuyu against the Luo and the Kalenjin, with the Kikuyu bearing the brunt of the casualties.

Some of the attacks - such as the one in which scores of Kikuyu women and children were burned in a church in Eldoret - have taken genocidal dimensions. But ethnicity alone cannot explain Kenya's descent into chaos.

Although New York-based Human Rights Watch says the attacks were planned by ODM leaders, it is the poor, unemployed, and marginalized youth who are most susceptible to the violence. Virtually no one in the middle class is directly carrying out the attacks. Kenya's history of uneven development in which half the country lives on less than a dollar a day has come to haunt the country.

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan appears to be the last hope for Kenya if the country is to avoid a civil war. Annan must secure from Odinga, Kibaki, and their respective supporters a political settlement to end the violence. They have three options: a recount of the ballots to establish the true winner, a rerun of the election, or a power-sharing agreement in which Odinga becomes the prime minister and Kibaki retains the presidency but cedes substantial powers to the Legislature. Unless the two principals respond to Annan, one of the most beautiful places on earth will be left in the ruins of a biblical catastrophe.

* Makau Mutua is interim dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School. He is author of the forthcoming "Kenya's Quest for Democracy: Taming

Source:http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200802070634.html

[politicalmaniac]

To cleanse the sour after left by this idiot read this.

Stop this descent into hell

The Economist
President Mwai Kibaki must be persuaded to compromise or he may lose a country
SIX weeks after Mwai Kibaki stole an election, the bloodshed and ethnic cleansing in swathes of Kenya are getting frighteningly worse. Parts of the country are in danger of sealing themselves off (see article). Areas where a medley of ethnic groups once lived together are being ripped apart in tribal mayhem. The economy is rapidly deteriorating. The export of tea, coffee and flowers, big foreign-currency earners, has slowed drastically. Tourism is plummeting. Whole towns have been paralysed, as ethnic cleansing has spread, with Mr Kibaki's fellow Kikuyus, who run thousands of businesses outside their own heartlands, being chased out or even killed. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

Mr Kibaki has been hoping that time is on his side, that the violence and anger will burn itself out, that the opposition led by Raila Odinga will gradually be forced to accept a fait accompli, that the African Union and leaders of countries close to Kenya will rally to the incumbent in their usual clubbable manner, and that Kenya's biggest trading partners and aid givers will shrink from penalising him because general sanctions would hurt Kenya's many poor. But this happy (for him) outcome seems a distant prospect. If Mr Kibaki is to save his country, let alone his presidency, he must give ground. Otherwise Kenya will move beyond saving. This would be terrible not just for Kenya; it threatens the well-being of the entire region, for which Kenya and its capital, Nairobi, have long served as a hub of political moderation and economic bustle. Landlocked Uganda and Rwanda are being hurt. Goods are piling up in the region's main port, Mombasa.


The international bodies and countries that might have been expected to squeeze Mr Kibaki into seeing sense have been incoherent. The Americans first endorsed Mr Kibaki's flawed victory, as he has been an ally in their war on terror, then withheld approval, then sent out confusing signals after their State Department's head of African affairs said, rightly, that ethnic cleansing was happening. The British and their European partners have been more united in disapproval but have yet to present a real plan. Next door to Kenya, Uganda's president, Yoweri Museveni, himself the beneficiary of a constitutional fiddle to give himself a third term, has been alone in granting full support. The Chinese, whom Mr Kibaki is looking to for economic and moral support, have unhelpfully sneered that multi-party democracy is ill-suited to Africa.

This leaves a former UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, as the sole plausible mediator. He has made a little progress. At least Messrs Kibaki and Odinga now have two teams of negotiators grappling with each other under Mr Annan's gaze. But Mr Kibaki still seems loth to share power, let alone contemplate rerunning the election under international supervision.

A rerun would have been the juster solution. But with Kenya burning, the world may have now to settle for second-best, a government of national unity. Mr Kibaki should also promise to reform the electoral commission, perhaps bringing in members from Commonwealth countries in Africa and Asia. Ideally, he should also agree in principle to long-mooted constitutional changes that would provide for a prime minister and a more devolved administration, thus softening the winner-takes-all attitude that is partly responsible for the current intransigence on both sides.
Bringing the entire building down on himself
There is no easily enforceable way for outsiders to impose such sensible conditions on Mr Kibaki. Certainly, the United States and the European Union, if not the African Union, should impose targeted sanctions—with asset freezes and travel bans—against a clutch of the most venal ministers, some of whom Mr Kibaki has even promoted since his fraudulent re-election; they should be named, too. Kenya should be suspended from the Commonwealth and aid reconsidered.

But the most powerful pressure against Mr Kibaki is the sight of his country's economy threatening to implode. Many of his keenest Kikuyu supporters must realise that his refusal to budge is leading all Kenyans, whether supporters of himself or Mr Odinga, into a bloody and bankrupting dead end from which it may soon become impossible to retreat

[merkeju]

sometime this so called learned individuals waste alot of their precious moments writing articles which are not based on any research but driven by self glorification of their tribes or to serve the interest of their buddies.