Mukwhasi
Full Member
Justice will live on ..
Posts: 180
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Post by Mukwhasi on Sept 28, 2007 13:22:35 GMT 3
R-47%
mk-38%
KM-8%
Source steadman polls
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Post by japuonjni on Sept 28, 2007 16:33:15 GMT 3
Jaugenya,
I guess the challenge is how to reconcile the early Steadman polls which were dismissed as doctored and the current one which we validate.
Remember it is the very same pollster.We don't know who funds Steadman polls,then and now.
However, let me be state that Steadman's latest findings only confirm what millions of Kenyans had suspected if not known and believed in: that Raila is the most potent political force in Kenya and The People's President.
It is now clear that it is him and him alone who was behind the popularity of Narc,LDP,ODM-Kenya and now ODM.Yes it is.
Lastly, as the mainstream media, notably NATION, validates Raila's presidential bid, the focus,in my mind, should be on the lesson(s) from Raila The Politician to especially the wanabes and also the Kibakinistas, the Moists and Jomoists.
Once again, Jukwaa is being invited to take a critical look at the politics of Raila, the man Nation's Gitau Warigi once scornfully dismissed as the scourge of Kenyan politics.
What is it that make Raila tick? How has he managed to overcome the barricades that were worrisome a decade ago to be who he is today?
What lesson can the Orengos,Uhurus, Jirongos,Kirwas, Kalonzos,Lumumbas and even Gedion Moi and Charity Ngilu learn from Raila's brand of politics?
To what extend can Raila's successes be attributed to Kibaki and Moi?
my 5 cents
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Post by japuonjni on Sept 28, 2007 16:43:12 GMT 3
In my earlier musings, I had posited that Raila is an agent of historical inevitability whose quest for presidency cannot be stopped by human effort.
I also predicted that events in the coming months will work to Raila's advantage and that the more the propaganda and machinations against him hit crescendo so shall his excellence.
Have I been vindicated? Lets see.
For instance, it is not a coincidence to me that Kibaki's PNU had a faulty start; Imagine defecting to a political party that has no known address, no symbol,no slogan..? Remember he called off the sh I million a plate fund-raiser-cum-launch of what the media like to describe as his re-election vehicle?
Then there is the switching of dates for the launch. By sabotaging(the buck stops at his doorsteps) the launch of Raila's presidential campaign slated for tomorrow, Kibaki has the egg on his face.
He heads to Nyayo Stadium tomorrow to launch a party that Uhuru would have dismissed as amorphous reeking of bad press. Just when it is all system go for Kibaki, the Arturs scandal hit the headlines and now the Steadman polls.
The worst blunder Kibaki has made is to entrust non-politicians and quasi-politicians with his campaign ala Lee Karuris,retired military officers,Livondos ...
Where I come from we call it sasia.
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Post by roughrider on Sept 28, 2007 18:07:30 GMT 3
First, there is need to repeat: these polls still reflect lower than actual support for Raila and the ODM agenda. My subjective view…. based on informal polling. People are free to quibble with it.
Japuonj,
You have decided to review. Which is good in political analysis, but I aver that at this time it is even more critical to look at what the future holds. A likely scenario is that Kibaki’s group will unleash massive resources and the entire weight of incumbency in fighting Raila and ODM. This could backfire, though and they are running late: for example will a KShs 1 million plate for Kibaki attract as much interest today as it did before these polls? Nobody wants to throw good money down the drain.
There will most likely be heavy propaganda onslaught on Raila. Which is also perilous. How should ODM and Raila prepare and react to this in order to consolidate and increase their lead?
Secondly, I am watching keenly how KANU behaves. They are holding an NDC tomorrow but they are not inviting delegates that they cannot control. This is sad. For if they did not interfere with genuine delegates, I have every reason to believe that the Kanu NDC would have reversed Uhuru Kenyatta’s decision to support Kibaki. Still the politicians in Kanu who justified joining Kibaki by saying ‘they wanted to be in government’ must be thinking long and hard. ‘The horse hasn’t bolted yet’ is my message to them.
Thirdly, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. Whatever people say, he is closer to ODM than to PANU. Can an exasperated Kibaki switch support to him? Highly unlikely and ultimately useless. Can he support Kibaki and negotiate a big cake? Methinks that is difficult. His option lies in retracing his step in to ODM and working with Raila. People can understand that.
Fourth, what politicalmaniac has said in another thread; is it plausible that there is play here with polls to catalyse Kibaki’s people into some form of action? Implausible. First, no further polls are tenable after this, the situation would be too volatile and so using future polls to reflect an unlikely Kibaki comeback will be difficult. Secondly it is too close to the elections to pull this. Thirdly it is a dangerous strategy that could easily backfire and lastly, nobody in Kibaki’s court has the political dexterity to control exactly all variables necessary for such strategy to succeed.
Lastly, can Kibaki still win? Possible but unlikely, the gap is widening as we speak. I have in mind the single thing that they might do to reverse trends but I’ll be dam.ned if I say it here. And even that would only work if ODM made SIX major mistakes.
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Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 28, 2007 19:17:51 GMT 3
Jaugenya, I guess the challenge is how to reconcile the early Steadman polls which were dismissed as doctored and the current one which we validate. Who validated this "poll" ? you and whom? this poll like the rest of the steadman "polls" are just junk stats. bure kabisa. This is a clever diversionary tactic to inculcate complacency in the ODM base and to fire up Gen Kegs base. Ignore the "poll" and continue with the hard and laborious work of selling R and the ODM team. ODM still has a few challenging hot spots like the Parliamentary nominations. And what happens when the "poll" swings and shows R tanking? then what? desperation and depression sets in? Remaining even keeled is the thing. Lets fix our collective eyes on the prize and make sure we hit the tape first. Forget this poll |
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Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 28, 2007 19:34:20 GMT 3
RR
My pals in NBI tell me that already the fundraising machine for the TENA camp is humming with ferocity. 50 of their people met and raised 50M start! just like that, this week! How do they intend to use this money?
-propanganda via radio (already a station in coast has just been set up for Mwakere), via youths whose pockets will be lined with KsH to intimidate, and turn out their vote
-logistics esp ferrying voters to the polls (this is smart money right here)
-and neferiously, buying and destroying voter cards. This is being openly said by supporters of the TENA campaign.
KANU
This party is as dead as a dodo in the collective psyche of voters. Apart from pockets in RValley its of NO consequence anywhere else. Talk of a tribal shell.
KM kaloser is fighting political gravity that is determined to pull him down. I personally do not see him working with R. already he is busy trashing R and accusing R of shutting him out from campaigning in Nyanza!! But he coyly states that R is free to campaign in Ukambani! This guy is just amazing. I think R just ought to invest some time there wooing the Kamba vote and spend resources there. At crunch time the kamba electorate will be faced with 2 choices. Stick and drown with KM, or choose between the incumbent and R. R has a shot at some of those votes and depending on what Ngilu does he may perform satisfactorily. Ngilu is now engaged in the KM death watch. She is waiting for him to implode kabisa then she perhaps comes to an understanding of sorts with R.
And this thing as you say could be a blowout
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Post by japuonjni on Sept 28, 2007 22:33:17 GMT 3
RR,
The 2007 political contest between Raila and Kibaki has been asymmetrical with Mwai having it all going for him(from the favorable poll ratings and the power incumbency to the backing of Moo and the moneyed).
However,Orange seems to be redressing the asymmetry-taking full advantage of the obvious chink in Kibaki's armour.
The implosion of information(e.g the proliferation of internet political blogs that can be accessed right at the rural Post Office, mobile telephony and vernacular FM stations like Kass FM)is an advantage and a challenge.
ODM and its rivals are now dealing with a more critical mass.Rhetorics alone will not suffice.
ODM must now shift gear and take their campaign to the next level..... maybe less rallies and more direct engagement with the masses.
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Post by job on Sept 28, 2007 22:43:19 GMT 3
PM,
Couldn't agree more,......this is not the time for "high-fiving" each other. The race has barely started.
Job
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Post by job on Sept 29, 2007 3:44:32 GMT 3
Without a doubt, ODM and Raila's popularity have risen tremendously,......but......Cautious Optimism must be applied.
Hereunder is Steadman's disclaimer,......
Quoted from it's local boss, George Waititu.
"As Steadman we are compelled to release the polls every three months, whether one likes it or not," he stated.
He said Steadman would continuously track and obtain reliably estimates at the national level on how Kenyans are likely to vote.
He also announced that from now on, they would be releasing national polls every two weeks. ........
Steadman also released a disclaimer to the poll results, noting that campaigns are yet to start officially, and the expenditure, reach and style are yet to be felt.
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Post by dubois on Sept 29, 2007 10:45:19 GMT 3
I think these polls are actually accurate and could be the best thing that happens to the Kibaki camp. If things don't change, Raila may trounce Kibaki at the end of the year. Kibaki has to fully acknowledge the difficulty he is facing and quickly re-arrange his troops as well as adopt new strategies. It will be embarrassing to lose despite being an incumbent and having multi-billionaire backers. Because ultimately, in a close race, it is money that wins elections.
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Post by aeichener on Sept 29, 2007 12:10:48 GMT 3
Kibaki has to fully acknowledge the difficulty he is facing and quickly re-arrange his troops as well as adopt new strategies. He to acknowledge? The Man Who Could Not Be Bothered ?  Alexander |
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Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 29, 2007 18:11:12 GMT 3
Kibaki has to fully acknowledge the difficulty he is facing and quickly re-arrange his troops as well as adopt new strategies. It will be embarrassing to lose despite being an incumbent and having multi-billionaire backers. Because ultimately, in a close race, it is money that wins elections. You are right -It will be an embarrasing defeat for Gen kegs de Othaya - Yes! -He will go down with his multi billionaire backers - Yes! You are wrong - Money does NOT win close election in Kenya. The last two national elections in 2002 and the referendum in 2005, both times the winner was heavily outspent and the looser had the poser of incumbency and state machinery on their side. You are grasping at straws - Hoping that Gen Kegs will overhaul his team and strategy. So far he has the octogenerian war-lord nyandusi jnr and the illiterate njenga heading his re-election team, having jettisoned Dr Wekesa the hardworking NARCKie, Mbwatana wa Garsen and Kiunjuri |
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Post by 50cents on Sept 30, 2007 0:04:31 GMT 3
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Post by dubois on Sept 30, 2007 11:52:35 GMT 3
Kibaki has to fully acknowledge the difficulty he is facing and quickly re-arrange his troops as well as adopt new strategies. It will be embarrassing to lose despite being an incumbent and having multi-billionaire backers. Because ultimately, in a close race, it is money that wins elections. You are right -It will be an embarrasing defeat for Gen kegs de Othaya - Yes! -He will go down with his multi billionaire backers - Yes! You are wrong - Money does NOT win close election in Kenya. The last two national elections in 2002 and the referendum in 2005, both times the winner was heavily outspent and the looser had the poser of incumbency and state machinery on their side. You are grasping at straws - Hoping that Gen Kegs will overhaul his team and strategy. So far he has the octogenerian war-lord nyandusi jnr and the illiterate njenga heading his re-election team, having jettisoned Dr Wekesa the hardworking NARCKie, Mbwatana wa Garsen and Kiunjuri Pmaniac, It is true that Kibaki's team looks shaky at the moment but I wouldn't be rejoicing if I was an ODM supporter. Like I said before, this will be a very close election. It definitely is not a repeat of the 2002 elections. Perhaps it is a bit like the referendum minus the Kamba and anti-Raila votes. So, this election will be closer than you think. Whatever team maintains enough energy and money will win. At this point, we still don't have a clear front-runner but that's my view! |
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Post by gakungu on Sept 30, 2007 15:31:21 GMT 3
Dubois,
I somehow disagree with you. Wait untill Raila launches his campaign next saturday. Things will never be the same again. Kibaki will never catch up.
Think of it. In a place like western, opinion polls shows that Raila has an average of 70%. During referandum ODM got 56% in the region. Don'tforget that in the past one month Kibaki has traversed the whole of western province soliciting votes but Raila is even yet to cover the quarter of the province. What is new that Kibaki would tell the people of Western to change the tide. It can only get worse.
Trust me, this might end up been a replica of 2002 contest with Raila enjoying a commanding lead in 6 provinces with an average of 65%. Watch this space.
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Post by dubois on Sept 30, 2007 16:33:46 GMT 3
Gakungu,
It is precisely people like you who are misled by opinion polls. These polls cannot predict voter turnout among other things, so it is ill-advised to compare the referendum results to the steadman opinion polls. What I can assure you is that the margin between Raila and Kibaki will be much less than the one in the referendum. It is funny that just a few months ago some Kenyans including ODM supporters were not sure Raila was electable but now they are already crowning him. Kibaki is now the underdog and I think that's the best winning position. So, it aint over till it's over buddy. Enjoy the ride!
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Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 30, 2007 17:10:39 GMT 3
Gakungu, It is precisely people like you who are misled by opinion polls. These polls cannot predict voter turnout among other things, so it is ill-advised to compare the referendum results to the steadman opinion polls. What I can assure you is that the margin between Raila and Kibaki will be much less than the one in the referendum. It is funny that just a few months ago some Kenyans including ODM supporters were not sure Raila was electable but now they are already crowning him. Kibaki is now the underdog and I think that's the best winning position. So, it ain't over till it's over buddy. Enjoy the ride! You are right:- -Polls cannot predict voter turn outs, and neither can they capture the intense enthusiasm, that will lead to an INCREASED turnout! -The margin between R and Gen Kegs may be smaller. BUT it MAY GROW when R actually launches his campaign, and heads Eastwards where he has not been so far, when Ngilu eventually JOINS FULL TIME and campaigns drawing in the Kamba and women vote, when the rats leave the sinking 'MV Gen Kegs' from this coming week and next week when I hear parliament is being dissolved. The worst is yet to come for Gen Kegs and the sh!t is yet to hit the fan. There is a song called Mambo Bado doing the rounds on the WWW and I am gonna post a link here. Its a poignant reminder just how good things are for Gen Kegs now BUT the sh!t is yet to hit the fan. Its only gonna get progressively WORSE. You are Wrong (as usual):- ODM supporters NEVER doubted the electability of R. Its people like you, MKM and their ilk, kaloser KM and the likes who were in doubt. You guys and your vicious lies are now debunked and now you want to shamelessly rope in ODM folks in your shenanigans that R is not electable due to his full penile skin, or his Jaluo roots, or his mythical violent nature, or his vaunted dictatorial nature, or his party hoping or alleged molasses scandal or involvement in the coup. YOU HAVE THROWN ALL KINDS OF SH!T, but NONE stuck!!!!!! ;D So now you you facetiously declare the incumbent an underdog to preempt the fallout when HE ACTUALLY looses. Why is Gen Kegs de Othaya the underdog? Why? Isn't he the incumbent? hasn't he delivered? or has he NOT delivered? WHY IS Gen Kegs de OTHAYA the UNDERDOG?  ? WHY??? Yea lemme enjoy the roller coaster ride. Who knows, I may choke on my ugali tonite. I wanna die with pleasant thoughts, and what better than a dream about an R presidency. Yes we can dream!! |
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Post by dubois on Sept 30, 2007 18:07:35 GMT 3
Pmaniac, the issue here is not why Kibaki is the underdog. According to cyber polls, Fm stations and now the steadman polls Raila is on top. Or is he? And don't deny it, Raila's electability was in question, even by you, just a few months ago. Even today few of you are willing to unequivocally state that the Raila project will take off. The one thing I have to give you is that you seem to have some political sense. The road ahead is not as straightforward as Gakungu thinks. To answer your question, Kibaki is an underdog simply because of ethnicity.
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Post by mimimzalendo on Sept 30, 2007 18:19:29 GMT 3
Dear All,
Maybe u understoon my rantings over the past 3 days. I'm still not getting it why pro-Kibaki handlers have not got it yet.
Steadman (and other pollsters) have showsn us that Raira is leading with 47% versus Kibaki's 38% and Kalonzo's 8% and undecided 7%.
The same pollsters have also shown us that Kibaki only leads in 2/8, Kalonzo leads in only 1/8, while Raira leades in 5/8.
Even further, the poll confirms what we have known all along, tribalism and devolution (majimbo) are the key driver as we see of the Top 8 tribes in Kenya, Kibaki only leads with 2 (Kikuyu, Meru), Kalonzo leads with 1 (Kamba) and Raira leads in the other 5 (Luo, Kalenjin, Luhyia, Kisii, Mijikenda).
The polls come in the background of a flurry of intense presidential activities and dishing goodies by Kibaki and his Govt in NEP, Coast, Rift Valley, Eastern and Western. This must surely be depressing becoz it almost confirms that whatever was done recently has actually not changed much except made the situation worse (maybe the voters know its just election gimmicks and have already made up their minds).
And what does PANU/Kibaki campaigners do to address this?
- They side step the major issues that have bedivlled his presidency and start focussing on how to increase turnouts in GEMA land.
- They organiza a launch rally today in Nyayo Stadium where they not only fail to make the major policy statements for their parties and why they support Kibaki, and instead engage in scare-mongering and hate tactics.
-Has it not occured to them that the same tactics that they did in 2005 referendum served to only increase turnout marginally in GEMA land but also served to swing the non-GEMA votes to Orange and even made Raira much more popular.
- As for those waiting for Kibaki to take charge and lead from the front, disappointment awaits. As Hon. VP Awori said yesterday, the PANUA side is begining from a point of disadvantage as the other side has completely already done a ground blazing pre-campaign national. And they have been organized and singing with one voice.
The bottom line is: Aside from economics (which it seems the people on the grass roots have not felt), what is their re-election message and who are the messengers. And how will this be done effectively, efficiently, in a disciplined manner and with vibrance in 10 weeks.
And as long as this is not done, Kibaki handlers will continue to look at the polls and feel the heat. Obvisouly many of them will bury their heads in the sands. The DN recent columnists like Magesha Ngwiri, Gitatu Wairigi and even Mutahi Ngynyi have been at pains to shout hoarse for the handlers to see the emerging rural euphoria but it does not see the Tena team is listening.
Meanwhile, we see Pattni as the new addition to Kibaki Tena Team.
MM
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Post by dubois on Sept 30, 2007 19:35:43 GMT 3
MM,
I couldn't agree more. Your post was refreshing.
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Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 30, 2007 19:48:59 GMT 3
Pmaniac, the issue here is not why Kibaki is the underdog. According to cyber polls, Fm stations and now the steadman polls Raila is on top. Or is he? And don't deny it, Raila's electability was in question, even by you, just a few months ago. Even today few of you are willing to unequivocally state that the Raila project will take off. The one thing I have to give you is that you seem to have some political sense. The road ahead is not as straightforward as Gakungu thinks. To answer your question, Kibaki is an underdog simply because of ethnicity. No where did the ODM supporters question Rs electability. At least NOT me. I have all along stated that the paradigm has shifted. I stated many many times, that Rs strategy of speaking EN DIRECTE to masses is what will win it for him. R has his own megaphone! He did not, and does NOT need proxies, to campaign for him. He rolls up his sleeve and does the grimy work of changing hearts and minds on his own. I knew this strategy would work when Ruto pouted after R went to Kalenjin land with kina Sally and the other Kosgey. When Ruto went on a rant against this, he was summoned by elders and told to shut the F@ck up and toe the line or he will be chucked. I reported this here because I was on a conference call with an ODM MP who told us this. Soon Ruto came back to his senses. Miguna and many others here have repeatedly indicated that R stands a very very good shot of getting to be P.O.R.K! Its people like you and other idlers who believe in the power of incumbency, and the propaganda perpetrated by the conservative forces against R WHO HAVE QUESTIONED HIS ELECTABILITY!!! Not me and not any ardent ODM supporters have had doubts about his potential, or electability. ITS FOLKS LIKE YOU!!!!!!! Now you finally get the message that Gen Kegs is beatable and you declare him the underdog. Who cares? All I know is that R is doing VERY VERY WELL. And he cautioned his supporters to be VIGILANT, just exactly what I have been calling for. See this video here and scroll to the 1.10min mark where R comments on the poll. video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-117147554077766411&hl=enAnd by the way, KM kalosers comments are political theatrics of the absurd, he himself doesn't believe what he is saying. And finally you are being facetious and disingenuous by saying the Gen Kegs is down b/cos of ethnicity. How can that be? are you saying that other NON Gemans have ganged up against his tribe? If so what the reason? ;D |
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? WHY???