The Ngilu Fiasco: Another Dagger To The Yes Team

[adongo12345]

By Adongo Ogony

Finally


Ngilu got what she wanted. According to newspaper reports:

www.timesnews.co.ke/14oct05/nwsstory/news1.html

www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=30515

she will be our Prime Minister if we accept the Wako Draft Constitution.

This is the deal she reportedly made with President Kibaki in exchange for lending her support to the Bananas and not bolting to the Oranges.

This is weird, isn’t it? I mean we have not even passed the Draft Constitution yet and some people are already giving and others receiving positions of how to rule us once we pass it.

How nice.

And all these time we were told the constitution is not about individuals but about the people of Kenya.

We were even warned about those who want to grab power through the back door. What then do we do with those who brazenly want to grab power at the front office?

The Ngilu drama exposes the fringe ends of desperation to salvage the Yes campaign and smuggle the despised Wako Constitution to be the law of the land. That is what it is and Kenyans can smell that kind of stuff a mile a way.

The mere fact that Ngilu was allowed to troop into State House, allegedly to make demands escorted by civic leaders only to emerge a few hours later having made a deal where she becomes some kind of point person in Ukambani Yes campaign and get the nod for the PM is itself an insane circus. Ngilu’s team also gets "logistical and monetary support" according to reports. In layperson’s language that means cash.

One thing, we know people just don’t walk to State House with demands and get answers. Obviously the plan was agreed before Ngilu stepped into State House. Why then did the Kibaki’s advisors and Yes team find it necessary to put up the spectacle of Ngilu and group ambushing the President with demands and getting what they wanted? Why not just do it behind the scenes?

Your answer is as good as mine, but it would appear to me a few factors played part. One is that losing Ngilu was not an option for the Yes team. It could snowball into something they couldn’t handle after they just lost Jebii Kilimo.

Secondly, the Kamba vote is slipping out of reach for the Yes team. Kalonzo and his crew are doing major damage in Ukambani. The president himself has been there twice and still nothing to show for it. People like Kibwana are marooned there in Makueni and nothing is working. Something had to be done because with the other tribal equations that the Yes team had in the radar crumbling, loosing the Kamba vote just sinks the ship further. Ngilu can now launch her campaign in Kitui and hope something catches up.

The third factor is Ngilu saw the desperation and cashed her IOU with Kibaki and got an MOU for a non-existent position of PM in exchange for trying to turn things around. Interestingly even Ngilu herself in her statement to the media indicated it is going to be an uphill task. That is not very reassuring if you ask me

Does this help Kibaki and the Yes team? Absolutely NOT.

And this is why:

1. The Yes campaign is now telling Kenyans that it really doesn’t matter whether the Wako Draft is good for the nation or not. What matters is who gets what position once it is passed. That is a message that is going to backfire very badly with the Kenyan people. Ngilu is going to have a nightmare selling the Draft not just in Ukambani but elsewhere in the country. Kenyans are going to ask Madame Ngilu whether the Draft Constitution is good because she gets to be PM plus some marupu rupus for her community or because the Draft reflects what Kenyans asked for. Mixing the two is neither good for Ngilu nor for the Yes team. If the constitution is good, Ngilu should support and campaign for it regardless of what position she gets or doesn’t get after it is passed. And if it is bad it should never matter what Ngilu or anybody else gets.

2. This deal confirms the fears of Kenyans that the Wako Draft will give us a president with excessive and dictatorial powers. First of all just to imagine a situation where the constitution for Kenya is determined by deals between individuals who allocate themselves positions of president, PM and who knows what else is enough to turn your stomach upside down. Where do the people of Kenya and their interests fit in that picture? Isn’t it obvious from this deal that the president in future whoever it is will just be promising and allocating the post of the PM to their pals and those they “have traveled with”, God knows from where to where. Who said that is what Kenyans asked for?

3. President Kibaki is going to have a nightmare convincing other communities and tribes whom he has not been offered anything that they too should vote Yes. What position do the Mjikendas get for voting Yes? Deputy PM? How about the Kisiis? And the Luos? Luhyas, Wasomali, Borana,Pokomo,Wakalenjin, Maasai and the tens of other communities? Can we turn the Constitution into a dead hippo to be chopped into chunks for so and so and still have something left for everybody? I don’t think so. That is why I think by succumbing to Ngilu’s demands be it due to a desperate situation, the Yes team has opened a can of worms. It is going to come back to haunt them.

4. The mere fact that people are making almost impossible demands on Kibaki particularly to give them something to fight the No team with is not a very good sign for the Yes team. I mean people are demanding land, parks now titles, Michuki is promising to issue letters for non existent jobs and of course there are the brave and the bold who want to be named the next president as a condition for campaigning for the Yes team. These are impossible demands. The real question is what do all these demands have to do with whether the Wako Draft is good or bad for Kenyans?

5. The desperado moves going on at State House should and will remind Kenyans of what really is wrong with our country and our constitution. Kenyans have for a long time hated the fact that the resources and affairs of the nation are managed and controlled by a cartel of friends whose only claim to fame is that they have access to the president and they intend to use it for their personal gains which somehow should rub on to their communities. We rejected this bastardized form of governance by throwing Moi out, we are going to reject it under Kibaki and it is one reason we will reject the Wako Draft on November 21, 2005.


At least Mudavadi got to be the Vice President for a few days in attempt to win the Luhya vote for Uhuru in 2002.. Ngilu might sweat and never get to be a PM even for a day. Can these politicians ever learn anything?

And yes, the Kamba community allegedly represented by Ngilu and company will get relief food delivered faster according to reports on the deal. They will get boreholes, and some squatters will be settled etc.

The part that struck me was relief food. Is that still a political weapon? What happens to Kenyans voting NO to the Wako Draft? Do they get relief food as well? How soon? Could the Office of the President let Kenyans know if they need to send their representatives to State House in order to get food aid.

I was stunned the other day to hear the Minister for Agriculture Kipruto Kirwa making a public statement that there is enough food in the country and that the problem was that of distribution. I was wondering could we possibly use those military and police helicopters to deliver food instead of delivering politicians.


The writer is a human rights activist.

[miguna]

Wuon Ogony:

Timely reflections. But I think we should all remember that Kibaki said he would "consider" Ngilu if the Wako Mongrel is acceded to by Kenyans. Given Kibaki's track record with promises and broken ones, all we can do is guess, in the distant chance that banana wins, which, in I disagreeessment, is more than rempte...

-MIGUNA-

[miguna]

...in I disagreeessment is less than likely...is what i meant to say, before Oloo's machine broke my index finger

[miguna]

Oloo - something is very wrong with your system. Some words cannot be spelled or written. Let me try again...in I disagreeessment (please don't write "disagreeeessment" - whatever that is)

Peace

[job]

KALONZO's 2007 PRESIDENTIAL BID IS NGILU's WORRY, SO IS NDILE's, & KIBWANA's.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Folks,

This political gamesmanship over the referendum is proving quite interesting, I've just read the news now, late of course.

It is interesting that Kibaki is conducting underhand & immoral deals with selfish tribal based politicians for a national referendum contest that has nothing to do with individual tribal concerns.

Why is Kibaki lambasting his NO opponents (often calling them liars) who have chosen to remain faithful to the contents of the Wako draft, only warning Kenyans about it's poison, clause by clause.

Yesterday's bizzare Pas de deux between Kibaki and Ngilu proved more comical than strategic.

That Kambas should vote YES because Kibaki has promised Ngilu the Prime Minister in a future dispensation is as nauseating as Kombo urging Luhya's to vote YES because he's been promised the Vice Presidency under the same formula.

Remember talk of "the constitution is not being made for an individual (read Raila)"

Basically two individuals, Kombo & Ngilu have "secured" their demands & aspirations within the Wako document, hence all other Wananchi demands & wishes are immaterial & inconsequential. According to these two, Bomas draft can now go to hell & Wako's draft has suddenly "captured" our national aspirations. Pheeew!

By the way before I forget, what happened to Kombo's grand march to State House in 2007? Has he seen some wisdom in Kibaki's "whispered MOU" to support him in 2012? I wish him quite some luck in that endeavour, but he will surely wait for the moon to land on earth.

Two desperate bedfellows met yesterday at State House for horsetrading using the referendum as a bargaining chip, amid a perfect photo opportunity aimed at jump starting the stalled YES campaign.

The only evidence of "life" we've recently seen in the Banana campaigns are; scenes of Murungi's team being heckled by bui-bui clad, orange-tossing women in Wajir, Kamanda addressing a handful of hopefuls who expect in anticipation, the 'billions" Kiraitu promised .......etc etc.

At least Ngilu genuinely acknowledged the ubiquitous ORANGE influence in Ukambani, but where I can only wish her hard luck, is her promise to reverse the "NO" gains. It will not just happen.

As I sat eating dinner with my Kamba resident tutor, a.k.a., my better half, or "min nyithinda", who happens to hail from Ngilu's own Kitui Central Constituency, I listened attentively at her postulated implications of Mama Rainbow's move. I'm not privy to much of Ukambani politics.

I heard a lot, including stories of famine & acute water shortage which happens to coincidentally bite Ukambani so badly, right now. -It's been long since I was last in Kitui-. I was told of squatters living in neighbouring Constituencies who tend to gravitate more towards Ngilu (who is geographically closer to them) than Kalonzo.

Charity's populism & cunning charm to poor voters was mentioned too. So was her timely piped water & rural health center projects in her constituency alongside Ndile & Kibwana's. I now understand that a local CDF committee member, very close to Ngilu, actually uses a fully equipped Min. of Health ambulance, to run political errands on madam's behalf.

The theme of our discussion centred on the fact that Ngilu's political rise will be badly hurt if LDP's Kalonzo Musyoka happens to clinch the country's Presidency. I learnt that Kambas have asserted firmly, their collective resolve to faithfully rally behind Kalonzo Musyoka "no matter what it takes" ....including Ngilu's own Kitui Central constituents.

Ngilu is well aware that two Kamba's can't concurrently hold two prime national positions in our tribally sensitive politics. She has realized too that Kalonzo enjoys unwavering support even in her own constituency, I'm told.

Ngilu must have been doubting Kibaki's confidence in her, after past publicized fights between her & Kibaki's men with regard to; her botched NSHIF pet scheme, NARC leadership, NARC recruitment drive, Women HIV/AIDS conference, KNH corruption probe, & the firing of my former Paedriatrics Lecturer (U.O.N Med School/KNH) Dr. Florence Musau, former Director KNH.

Madam's worries must have been accentuated when she was recently side-lined from the National YES campaign committee, & her local Ukambani Banana campaign, having also been dropped previously from the Nyachae led PSC on Constitution review, in Parliament.

On her side, she has realized the desperation in the YES/BANANA team and has made her re-entry in a timely, but apparently selfish manner. Using her Kamba community as a chip while trying to configure herself prominently beside Kibaki, she has conveniently listed publicly, urgent needs of the Kamba.

Will Kibaki honour & KEEP all these haphazard promises to KAMBA's, MASAAI's, KIPSIGIS', COUNCILLOR's, PC's, DC's, DO's, Chief's, Asst. Chief's,......& those yet to bargain,.. etc etc?

Some OBVIOUSLY NOT, Some PROBABLY NOT, but many will nullify themselves in the event of a YES vote passing the referendum. That's the silly irony. Somebody is fooling the other here.

I doubt whether the Provincial Administration staff & Councillors are all "wapumbavu" to naively trust Kibaki's word on dissolution of their positions.

I also doubt whether all Kipsigis & Maasai "wapumbavu" will rest unperturbed, knowing they have secured titles to forest land & Amboseli Game park respectively, under the same Wako dispensation they're being urged to support.

As for Kibaki's MOU with Ngilu or Kombo; Are they binding?
Of course "pumbavu" me thinks not.

This is the jugular that Kalonzo & his entourage of Ukambani MP's seized immediately when they traversed Ukambani yesterday, telling Kambas not to bank on any MOU with Emilio or DP for that matter.

We'll know whether it sank or not, on November 21st. We'll also gauge whom between Ngilu & Kalonzo is more trustworthy & believable to the heavily spiritual Wa-Kamba.

Ngilu's fear of being rendered politically irrelevant by a possible Kalonzo Presidency is not alone. She shares this fear alongside Kibwezi MP, Kalembe Ndile who faced stiff opposition in 2002 elections from a Kalonzo-sponsored, Mrs. Grace Mwewa (former nominated MP under Moi- through Kalonzo's nod). Ndile's hatred & suspicion of Kalonzo has never been veiled.

Prof. Kibwana also had a charged 2002 stand-off with another Kalonzo proxy, Joel Muthoka in Makueni, and he too, is forecasting a possible short political sojourn for himself, if Kalonzo wave prevails in Ukambani. Kibwana has refused to forgive Kalonzo for opposing his 2002 run.

The trio, Ngilu, Ndile, & Kibwana have become restless just at the thought of Kalonzo Musyoka ascending to the Presidency.

Ngilu's constituent concluded by confidently declaring that Kalonzo's run for Presidency in 2007, will be the tsunami that will sweep the Ngilu-Ndile-Kibwana trio to oblivion, unless they jump ship of course & board the Kalonzo train.

So these people were actually just trying desperately, to catch the eyes of Kamba's in their typical & cunning populist posture. The talk of water, boreholes, relief food, & cash (bribe) for Councillors were all publicized gimmicks calculated to show that Ngilu is really concerned about the welfare of her peoples & councillors.

By extension she was saying, she still deserves relevance in Kamba politics coz after all, she might become that "powerless Prime Minister" of Kibaki!, Yes the Prime Minister who can be fired anytime by the President.


Ngilu's sure win yesterday, was having successfully seduced a lot of Kiraitu's "billions", which she'll now "personally" appropriate in Ukambani campaigns. She'll also lead those campaigns now.


unedited.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

Forum name Politics
Topic subject RE: Adongo on the Ngilu Fiasco
Topic URL www.mashada.com/forums/index.php?az=show_topic&forum=22&topic_id=71710&mesg_id=71726
71726, RE: Adongo on the Ngilu Fiasco
Posted by bkichwa, Thu Oct-13-05 08:45 PM

From Adongo's essay:

"...2. This deal confirms the fears of Kenyans that the Wako Draft will give us a president with excessive and dictatorial powers. Can you believe a situation where two individuals can make a deal now about who will be the president and who will be the PM? Where do the people of Kenya and their interests fit in that picture? Why do we even need elections if the national leadership will be determined by deals a president or a potential president makes with his/her buddies behind closed doors? Never mind that the Kibaki folks do not exactly have an exemplary record when it comes to keeping promises..."

Yes, I can believe a situation where two people make such a deal. Infact such a situation existed in 2002 - the NAK-LDP MOU. I'm wondering about the outburst above regarding Ngilu doing what Raila pretty much did in 2002 (although Kibaki reneged). Are the actions of our politicians subject to censure as above only when the politician in question is one who we don't like or one playing in the team we don't support??? How about talking about the power sharing between the ODM, assuming they win in 2007? Is Adongo wont to believe that a similar power sharing MOU/agreement - albeit not in public - won't take place among ODM leading lights who all have high executive aspirations? Objectivity Bwana Adongo, tafadhali...some objectivity please. This katiba fight ceased to be about the people a long time ago - both sides are guilty of expediency...no use continuing to harp on a "document for the people". You know very well that the current fight is for the executive, period. We can all see why one side wants the status quo and why the other prefers an Executive PM provision - relax on the mingi essays, you're exposing your bias.

[Onyango Oloo]

miguna said:

Oloo - something is very wrong with your system. Some words cannot be spelled or written. Let me try again...in I disagreeessment (please don't write "disagreeeessment" - whatever that is)

Peace

Miguna:

I understand what the problem is. The system has certain words that it considers non-kosher. Sometimes you are not actually using said word. To illustrate, I want to call out the name of that bird which is famous for its colourful plummage. So I jot out the word:

PEACOCK.

I press send.

I come back and look at the message.

This is what I see:

PEA*

But I never used the asterisk to begin with. You know what I am saying....

Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[Onyango Oloo]

Small questions regarding Ngilu saying "yes."
From: Bunduki - Thu, Oct 13, 9:28 PM

I just have one question for Ngilu. How do you know those conmen will keept their word to you this time?

Those conmen have betrayed Raila and LDP, and disowned a MOU document they signed and deposited before a lawyer. Those conmen have lied to Kenyans about the constitution for the last three years.

And indeed, those conmen have lied to you before. You are yourself a victim of those conmen. Isn't that why you are disenchanted with them in the first place?

So, why do you think they will not dump you after using you? Why do you think they are trustworthy?

If these people can disown a legal document signed with colleagues, why do you think they will feel obligated to honor mere oral assurances they have allegedly made to you?

If Kibaki and Murungi can have the nerve to ask the public to tell them when they said that they would impliment a new constitution within a hundred days of taking over power, what makes you think that they will honor mere oral pledges made to you in the presence of greedy and opportunistic MPS and kanjuras [councillors]?

I am Bunduki, and I am waiting for your answers.

[kamalet]

Is it not very intirguing that all of a sudden Ngilu has become pariah, someone who is now sleeping with the enemy...and even a red herring introduced that she was promised the post of PM - and this is not even mention in the copy of the Standard that I am reading!!

I wish Oloo had 'foreseen' this move and saved some people from gleefully rubbing their hands waiting for the earth-shaking announcement that Ngilu has ditched Bananas! I do not think it serves an objective purpose demonising her....just like Kilimo, she made a choice.

[Onyango Oloo]

unprovoked, not really necessary you know.

oo
to

[abdulmote]

job said:

By the way before I forget, what happened to Kombo's grand march to State House in 2007? Has he seen some wisdom in Kibaki's "whispered MOU" to support him in 2012? I wish him quite some luck in that endeavour, but he will surely wait for the moon to land on earth.


unedited.

Job.

Bwana Job,

To me, Kombo's hopes are hardly surprising or indeed 'impossible' as you imply above.

Remember the chapter on the executive? The DP is empowered to take over the Presidency should that position fall vacant, and for the duration of the entire remaining term, whatever that length maybe, without the need to seek being re-elected!

Well, it may be just a dream on Kombo's part, but how impossible is it for it to ever happen?

Looking at the the way things standright now, I wonder who Kebaki is going to nominate as his 'running mate' and therefore the 'hands rubbing' Deputy President, should the Draft ever pass! It is certainly going to be very difficult to have the two candidates both as Kikuyus. Which means...

[kamalet]

admin said:

unprovoked, not really necessary you know.

oo
to

Even if the 'snide' remark did not elicit the intended humour, are you not the one that foresaw Kibaki's demise......or more recently wrote his political obituary?

.....come on prophet Oloo, do try and have a laugh once in a while!!

[Onyango Oloo]

kamalet said:

Even if the 'snide' remark did not elicit the intended humour, are you not the one that foresaw Kibaki's demise......or more recently wrote his political obituary?

.....come on prophet Oloo, do try and have a laugh once in a while!!

Kamale:

Leaving aside the snide remark for an instant, I notice that you unconsciously betray your notion that Kibaki is the Kenyan government. As I said recently, I was giving a political obituary of a regime. To your mind, it is synonymous with the Othaya MP. You reveal more than you perhaps intended.

By the way, I do not believe that I am totally devoid of a sense of humour- but I will let others be the judge of that...

oo
to

[job]

Abdulmote,

I agree on a number of things especially Kombo & DP's deal.

Referendum aside, I still see a "NO" victory unless of course somebody chickens out of the plebiscite.

The sad truth is that the Wako debate has taken the tribal angle more prominently than thought, whether deliberately or not. The net effect is now grand posturing & realignments of tribal alliances which now becomes the focus of debate.

Well, I'll not shy from giving my 2 cents of opinion fearing that someone will tag my remarks tribal. This appears to be the vogue anyway. Our politics including the law review all tend to peak in tribalized justifications for this and that .

Now that people are being dragged from analyzing the Wako draft, whose poison has been unearthed, then; On the ethno-executive 2007 politics, I agree, it's possible for Kibaki to have Kombo as his running mate, but that's not a guarantee considering the latter's
"spinelessness" & the former's penchant for breaching deals.

Dr. Kituyi may even have a better chance with the DP than Kombo in this regard. If Kibaki sees the possibility of only getting a fragmented portion of the Luhya vote in 2007, he might jump ship for another catch, never rule that out, since it's all about expediency in Kibaki's world.

But one thing very naive is for Kombo to assume that he can seal a deal with DP, whereby he will support their 2007 candidate in exchange for banking on their support in 2012, when he hopes to run for the top seat. That's simply preposterous! He has a good scheme, but has a partner who will/can never deliver.

The reality of contemporary Kenya indicates that; a consummate Presidential candidate outside Central Province, is the one who does his election arithmetic in exclusion of any GEMA support or vote, ask Moi about this.

Thus he/she would first seek support of other non-GEMA election blocs then only hope to get "some" support from GEMA. History has proved that this is the crux, hence Kombo's strategy has fault-started in essence, based on this premise. Worse, he is burning bridges in other parts of Kenya that could well turn to be fertile hunting groung for "bankable" votes.

History (esp. post multi party era) has proved that; Kenyan presidential elections are tribal based without doubt, but nowhere is the allegiance to ethnic-kin more pronounced than Central, hence tribal alliances involving the latter only make sense if the torch-bearer is from Central.

I'll give Nyachae credit for having premised his 2002 run on this; his road to State House depended very little on Central votes, hence his initial but unsuccessful attempts to seek alliance with other tribes. If you closely scan the political radar you will see some serious contenders following in this path towards 2007.

unedited

Job.

[job]

Folks,

I've learnt not to underscore the important role in national politics & policy formulation of such Kenyan cyber-fora as Jukwaa, KOL et al. Some concerns raised not by Politicians on the ground, but by diaspora based Kenyans, seem to be taking prominent stage back at home. At least I have now verified that from reliable sources.


Ngilu State House visit ignites a tornado of more visits.
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Having perused the article on Ngilu's Machakos rally, I had to call & complement (at work) my resident source for her accurate analysis (yesterday) & grasp of Kamba politics. It seems obvious whom between Kalonzo & Ngilu is to be believed & taken seriously in Ukambani.

But thanks to Ngilu, my Kamba in-laws got some relief food at least, & Councillors benefitted from some "allowances".

As Kalonzo recently advised Kenyans, "eat" all that's given and even ask for more, but come November 21st, vote with a clean conscience.

It must have been painful, (or is it embarrassing) for Ngilu to witness Dr. Machage handing over relief food to Orange chanting Ukambani recepients. It seems Kenyans are beginning to shun tokenism & demand their rightful services.

State House visits.
-------------------------
State House has lately become quite busy, reminding us of the Moi years when KANU delegations were often received lavishly at taxpayers cost. But folks, it's all good, at least we get to hear from Emilio regularly.

So yesterday came the turn of the Kipsigis. They should accept land titles, eat & ask for more. However, this must absolutely have nothing to do with their democratic choice(s) especially with regard to this referendum. That domain must be left to individual conscience. I'm optimistic November 21st will tell this tale better.

The que of prospective State House visitors will exponentially rise, I presume, with delegations upon delegations of "pro-YES" supporters trooping for some "facilitation" & lists of immediate needs here & there.

Dzoro & Mungatana must surely take the coast team with demands, Kombo & Awori must take the Luhya list, Nyachae must troop in with the Gusii delegation and Tuju must not be left behind with his Lakeside PPP soldiers. It will be interesting to see some of the demands tabled by Tuju & Nyachae for example. Will they be individual demands or communal requests or a mix of both.

At least through State House visits, Kibaki is speaking on contents of the draft though quite generally. Probably as a caution after the provincial Administration backlash.

Kibaki did mention that his government will not dissolve districts created earlier. Well, who is to believe between him (now), or (earlier statements attributed to) his marauding troopers Kiraitu, Mirugi, Michuki, Koigi ....all who have publicly faulted Moi for creating these "non-viable" districts that need scrapping.

Someone is lying here but we don't know who. If Kibaki's premise to that effect was not entrenched in the Wako draft, then how can he convince people (that he fondly refers to as fools,) to trust his word given his shaky track record?

Couldn't this have become another horse-trading concession to consider, in which case people should be allowed to first reject (or accept) the Wako draft then begin making concessions, based on the Bomas draft or Wako draft, with regard to entrenching existing districts in the constitution.

Emilio also said that he would create more districts to bring administration closer to the people. Yes that we very much expect, our only question is WHERE & by what CRITERIA?

If people vote YES for the wako draft then citizens will be faced with some critical questions here. We already had problems created by Moi's random creation of districts in the first place & we don't need to make the same mistake twice, neither do we have to selectively dissolve them.

These are pertinent questions not to be left solely in the hands of politicians. We acknowledge that we must take input from technical policy guidelines, but BECAUSE THIS DIRECTLY AFFECTS WAKO PROPOSALS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, THROUGH THE 25% VOTE REQUIREMENT FOR 1/2 OF TOTAL DISTRICTS, many have seen potential for problems here.

This is why Wananchi opted not to tie Presidential election requirements to the districts but rather to the 14 proposed devolution Regions, all entrenched in the Bomas Constitution.

Many are not happy with Wako's rejection of this proposals, Mr. President. As such many are only left with the option of voting NO at the referendum.

Exit Routes for Kibaki.
----------------------------

While Oloo & n'Otiya have postulated at depth, some well thought safety valve options, some by-passing the plebiscite, I'll leave that job to Kibaki's paid "thinkers", since I personaly would wish for the referendum to proceed without 'exits' so as to make a national statement that can be taken seriously by politicians standing in the way of a people desired draft.

It can also for sure serve as a spoken statement by the people on which direction they desire the law review process to take.

This can only be a good lesson for the nation, & a wake up call against arrogant & forceful governance.

unedited.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

intriguing insights in your interventions, as always job.

as you know, i have argued vociferously against the boycotters, middle-grounders and of course cautioned against the plain old fascist mischief cooks who may be trying to scuttle the democratic exercise.

my offer of an exit strategy is really no different than what goes on right in the middle of the fiercest military conflicts.

i will give an illustration here and watch it carefully to ensure that this does not become another full-fledged digital itself- the exit essay had started life as yet another "response" like this one- so here goes.

at the height of the imperialist wars against the vietnamese waged, first by the french and later the americans, the vietnamese leadership carried on with the official foreign policy of international cooperation, peace and non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states. they had their ambassadors dotted around the world. and they conducted their struggle with the imperialists on the diplomatic stage as well- at each and every stage offering clear preconditions for a speedy POLITICAL solution of the military conflict. remember, lenin said that war is a continuation of politics by other means, which turned on its head also means that you can transform a war situation into a completely non-militarized political one etc.

in this context, offering an exit strategy is not a retreat; it is far from a capitulation or playing on both sides of the opposing teams.

nay, it is a reiteration that no one WANTED this referendum in the first place; it is underscoring that the main objectives of the orange team is to defend the gains of bomas and move on from there towards a new democratic katiba, and with it the long promised new political dispensation in the country.

tell me something job:

let us say you are a general of an army. you have enough troops, arms and ammunition as well as supplies to military knock out enemy positions and capture, say town x in three days and this after engaging the enemy in direct combat in which you estimate that you may lose up to 15% of your troops for example.

now, as you are preparing to attack, you get a reconnaissance and intelligence report that the enemy troops are completely demoralized and are on the verge of staging a mutiny which may result in the entire brigade that you were supposed to confront deserting to your side. in fact as you talk you get word that emissaries from the mutiny camp are on their way to negotiate a surrender pact.

so what do you do?

do you still, on the basis of a machismo ego insist on "fighting like a man" spilling blood and claiming your valour from that human sacrifice or you take advantage of these internal schisms within your enemy and capturing your town x without firing a single shot?

mind you the second option means doing without the adrenaline rush of slaughtering human beings like yourself. but the end result is identical- you will still capture your town x.

so what do you do?

i hope i have not been entangled in too much political glosolalia...

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[job]

Oloo,

Point taken. That's a logical plan for two logically thinking & staight-forward sides. I'm not sure whether one side is straight-forward though.

My injection was actually not in the spirit of machismoism but rather that of caution. As you accurately put it, the most important thing is to preserve the Bomas gains to ensure a more democratic Katiba.

In your exit strategy, you meticulously outlined practical steps like,.... Kibaki summoning his cabinet,.... putting off the referendum, ....calling back the Constituent Assembly,....inviting Tutu or other mediators etc etc...Basically also asking for a cooling off period in the nation.

I'm just a bit skeptical since a time-out period maybe just another round of re-scheming by the adamant Kiraitu group, but MOST IMPORTANT Wanjiku may tire & her spirit could dampen. The current momentum will die, & to re-ignite it is sometimes tricky. Political time-outs can later catch people by surprise. Swing votes can easily change when the momentum dies.

On the vote, I don't want to portray too much ODM optimism, but Bomas views can still be preserved with either result in the referendum, only that one scenario may take longer.

Like many, I'm aware there are remote plans by DP to call the thing off if they can't reverse the tide, that's why I don't wish to listen to Syongo & co.

Remember that we are in this stalemate basically due to a spirited attempt to sideline views of the people & replace them with views of incumbent leaders currently in power. What if these people just told the government NO way!

I'm sorry to say that I hope somebody doesn't find this exit tempting enough to put off the referendum.

With either a YES or NO verdict, some negotiations will still be necessary anyway, and that is where we must pitch in with Bomas views that were earlier thrown out. It will be much easier if a NO verdict returns, & of course harder if a YES verdict returns.

Otherwise compliments to you & N'Otiya for thinking out of the box, ahead, just in case.


unedited

Job.

[aeichener]

admin said:

remember, lenin said that war is a continuation of politics by other means

Not originally, OO, not originally. Wladimir Iljitsch Uljanow only quoted it.

www.clausewitz.com/CWZHOME/CWZBASE.htm

which turned on its head also means that you can transform a war situation into a completely non-militarized political one etc.

Indeed; that is one of the implications of Clausewitz' famous aphorism.

Alexander

[Onyango Oloo]

Mea culpa.

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[Onyango Oloo]

job said:

Oloo,

Point taken. That's a logical plan for two logically thinking & staight-forward sides. I'm not sure whether one side is straight-forward though.

My injection was actually not in the spirit of machismoism but rather that of caution. As you accurately put it, the most important thing is to preserve the Bomas gains to ensure a more democratic Katiba.

In your exit strategy, you meticulously outlined practical steps like,.... Kibaki summoning his cabinet,.... putting off the referendum, ....calling back the Constituent Assembly,....inviting Tutu or other mediators etc etc...Basically also asking for a cooling off period in the nation.

I'm just a bit skeptical since a time-out period maybe just another round of re-scheming by the adamant Kiraitu group, but MOST IMPORTANT Wanjiku may tire & her spirit could dampen. The current momentum will die, & to re-ignite it is sometimes tricky. Political time-outs can later catch people by surprise. Swing votes can easily change when the momentum dies.

On the vote, I don't want to portray too much ODM optimism, but Bomas views can still be preserved with either result in the referendum, only that one scenario may take longer.

Like many, I'm aware there are remote plans by DP to call the thing off if they can't reverse the tide, that's why I don't wish to listen to Syongo & co.

Remember that we are in this stalemate basically due to a spirited attempt to sideline views of the people & replace them with views of incumbent leaders currently in power. What if these people just told the government NO way!

I'm sorry to say that I hope somebody doesn't find this exit tempting enough to put off the referendum.

With either a YES or NO verdict, some negotiations will still be necessary anyway, and that is where we must pitch in with Bomas views that were earlier thrown out. It will be much easier if a NO verdict returns, & of course harder if a YES verdict returns.

Otherwise compliments to you & N'Otiya for thinking out of the box, ahead, just in case.


unedited

Job.

job:

your earlier comments echoed a conversation i was having another compatriot who had virtually the same reservations of giving the yes side wriggle room of cheating the wananchi out a democratic resolution of this referendum face-off. pondering on this sub-theme i of coursed wangled together another digital essay- coming right up....

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[adongo12345]

Oloo, Job and others

Actually it feels like we are running two threads at the same time. This one and the one Oloo started on meeting Kibaki midway to at least bring some more progressive and democratic constitution within immediate reach and to salvage the Kibaki regime in one way or the other.

This of course has been an ongoing theme. Even during the Bomas process when things were getting off the rails, thanks to the antics of State House operatives, people have come up with compromise positions.

To get to the heart of the matter, let me put it this way. In every compromise, there has to be something for both parties. We know what is in it for Kibaki. The question is; What is in it for ordinary Kenyans and for the progressive democratic forces?

Two things come to mind. The ODM is a mixed bag. We have Moi and Ruto there. Naturally, they are against any talk on human rights abuses, inquries into past crimes(economic and political), or any talk on truth and reconcliation which some of us think is a critical building block to free our country from impunity and political recklessness.

Now the question is; To what extent can Kenyans rely on this political base (ODM) to do any better or even come close to what the Wako Draft is proposing in this area, which I think is very sensible, in fact one of the few sensible things in the Wako Draft?

Secondly both Yes and No team are reeking with social conservatives who are against most of the provisions that address discrimination and marginalisation of Kenyan women. Look at the fretting about inheritance of land by women. These were considered minimal gains for women at Bomas, now even those are under threat. Kalonzo keeps getting nuts about "abortion" which is pretty limited in the Wako Draft compared to what was proposed at Bomas which looked as the more holistic issue of reproductive health and rights of women. Major forces in the review process, namely the religious frontline, the politicians etc are still obssesed with controlling the woman's womb. What chances do we have that the ODM could even approach what Bomas proposed on this front?

I just pointed out those two issues to highlight the fact that, YES, we have a lot to gain by building a compromise position that will rope the politicians around Bomas and accomodate the Kibaki extremists and give our country a working and basic progressive constitution without duking it out for the next year or so.

The big question is, If Kibaki were to yield to such a deal what would he need in return? I agree with Oloo's friends who told him we would be offering a wiggle room for a disgraced regime facing the wrath of the masses to survive and regroup to terorize the nation another day.

The way I look at it is that Kibaki is in a sinking ship called NAK/DP. The ship is going down and Kibaki has excess baggage, namely despised characters like Murungaru, Kiraitu, Mwiraria and a rotten constitution he is trying to smuggle aboard. Kibaki can toss down the excess baggage one by one into the sea to lighten the ship.

First of all can he do that? Are those not his own creations? Who created who? Did Kibaki create the Kiraitus and Murungarus or is it vice versa? What happens if after Kibaki has thrown down all the excess baggage he discovers the ship is still sinking? Does he jump into the sea and try to swim ashore? And what do we do with the tribal soldiers who have been promised everything including "ngorotaring" till kingdom come?

I am hoping to get some time to may be reflect more on these issues with my colleagues and comrades on this forum and elsewhere.

Very informative discussion by the way.

[aeichener]

adongo12345 said:

Secondly both Yes and No team are reeking with social conservatives who are against most of the provisions that address discrimination and marginalisation of Kenyan women.

True indeed. And of course, some women politicians are quite prominent in the anti-women camp, as sadly expectable.

Alexander

[job]

Oloo & Adongo,

I just lost a detailed article I intended to post in reply. I'm not very cyber savy but that was quite a loss. However I generally agreed that the process is far from over and will be a gradual one. We apparently agree also that Bomas draft should be the framework to start with & upon which to improve.

Job.

[politicalmaniac]

Job
that was a refreshing analysis of Kamba politics that shed qiute a bit of light in the on again, off again war between Mama rainbow and kalonzo

[Onyango Oloo]

job said:

Oloo & Adongo,

I just lost a detailed article I intended to post in reply. I'm not very cyber savy but that was quite a loss. However I generally agreed that the process is far from over and will be a gradual one. We apparently agree also that Bomas draft should be the framework to start with & upon which to improve.

Job.

Job:

The same thing has happened to me on this very forum.

A couple of suggestions.

1. Draft your response OFFLINE, on a word processor and then simply do cut and paste. That way if you lose a posting while posting, you simply go back to your original.

2. Always ensure that you are logged in, even when the system tells you that you are logged in. What I usually do is that when I do come back to post something, I will log out first and log in again- just to make sure that I do not spend twenty minutes writing a response online assuming I am logged in and when I post something I am jolted with the error message that I can not post since the system does recognize me as a JUKWAA because it had logged me out...

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