Post by JAHAATWACH on Jan 19, 2008 12:52:58 GMT 3
Stolen votes
Saturday January 19, 2008
The Guardian
The death toll of the violence unleashed by a disputed election in Kenya is rising inexorably. At least 20 died in the last two days of opposition protest. Add them to over 600 who have already been shot by police or hacked to death or burned alive by mobs, and it is obvious that Raila Odinga, the opposition leader who insists that President Mwai Kibaki stole the vote, would have to stop street protest. Yesterday the opposition spokesman Salim Lone said they would now turn to economic boycotts and strikes.
President Kibaki is losing his image of a gentleman surrounded by thugs. With each day that passes he is looking more like a hardliner who refuses to confront reality. He has dug in, spurned offers of international mediators, and packed his cabinet with the same discredited clique that voters tried to kick out of office. The violence obscures the root cause of the conflict - not ethnic unrest, social inequality, paramilitary gangs, youth unemployment or land distribution in the Rift Valley. These are symptoms, but the disease itself is vote-rigging.
An umbrella group of civil-society organisations called the Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ) returned to this subject yesterday with a report analysing the election results. While there is evidence of ballot-box stuffing on both sides (and the turnout figures in both Mr Odinga's and Mr Kibaki's heartlands are unbelievable), the KPTJ found that in 130 constituencies 325,321 more votes had been cast for the presidential tally than for the parallel parliamentary one. In other words, people cast substantially more votes for their choice of president than they did for their choice of MP. This is not credible, and the reverse of what happened in 2002. Of those additional votes, the KPTJ found that 256,000 were "suspicious". As Mr Kibaki's margin of victory was 231,628 votes, this is more than enough to explain the result. Both sides stuffed ballot boxes, but only one side rigged the count at the election commission. As one analyst in Nairobi said, it is like comparing the activities of a chicken thief with those of a bank robber.
A forensic audit of the count is difficult, if not impossible. The original tallies which election agents certified either do not now exist or are photocopies of the originals. Holding another election also looks like a pipe dream when the dead are still being buried. There is simply too much anger around. A coalition government should be formed with the limited objective of rebuilding discredited institutions such as the election commission and dismantling the roadblocks, so that fresh elections can be held at some point in the future. But for this to happen President Kibaki has to move. He has shown no sign of doing so yet.
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2243423,00.html
Saturday January 19, 2008
The Guardian
The death toll of the violence unleashed by a disputed election in Kenya is rising inexorably. At least 20 died in the last two days of opposition protest. Add them to over 600 who have already been shot by police or hacked to death or burned alive by mobs, and it is obvious that Raila Odinga, the opposition leader who insists that President Mwai Kibaki stole the vote, would have to stop street protest. Yesterday the opposition spokesman Salim Lone said they would now turn to economic boycotts and strikes.
President Kibaki is losing his image of a gentleman surrounded by thugs. With each day that passes he is looking more like a hardliner who refuses to confront reality. He has dug in, spurned offers of international mediators, and packed his cabinet with the same discredited clique that voters tried to kick out of office. The violence obscures the root cause of the conflict - not ethnic unrest, social inequality, paramilitary gangs, youth unemployment or land distribution in the Rift Valley. These are symptoms, but the disease itself is vote-rigging.
An umbrella group of civil-society organisations called the Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ) returned to this subject yesterday with a report analysing the election results. While there is evidence of ballot-box stuffing on both sides (and the turnout figures in both Mr Odinga's and Mr Kibaki's heartlands are unbelievable), the KPTJ found that in 130 constituencies 325,321 more votes had been cast for the presidential tally than for the parallel parliamentary one. In other words, people cast substantially more votes for their choice of president than they did for their choice of MP. This is not credible, and the reverse of what happened in 2002. Of those additional votes, the KPTJ found that 256,000 were "suspicious". As Mr Kibaki's margin of victory was 231,628 votes, this is more than enough to explain the result. Both sides stuffed ballot boxes, but only one side rigged the count at the election commission. As one analyst in Nairobi said, it is like comparing the activities of a chicken thief with those of a bank robber.
A forensic audit of the count is difficult, if not impossible. The original tallies which election agents certified either do not now exist or are photocopies of the originals. Holding another election also looks like a pipe dream when the dead are still being buried. There is simply too much anger around. A coalition government should be formed with the limited objective of rebuilding discredited institutions such as the election commission and dismantling the roadblocks, so that fresh elections can be held at some point in the future. But for this to happen President Kibaki has to move. He has shown no sign of doing so yet.
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2243423,00.html