The Politics of Polling in the Kenyan Referendum

[Onyango Oloo]

A Digital Essay by Onyango Oloo


PART ONE:


A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning. The term is also sometimes used incorrectly to refer to legitimate polls which test political messages, some of which may be negative. Push polling has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants.

The mildest forms of push polling are designed merely to remind voters of a particular issue. For instance, a push poll might ask respondents to rank candidates based on their support of abortion in order to get voters thinking about that issue.

More negative are attacks on another candidate by using polls. These attacks often contain information with little or no basis in fact.

True push polls tend to be very short, with only a handful of questions, so as to make as many calls as possible. The data obtained is discarded rather than analyzed. Any poll that does not ask demographic information – such as age, income, or race – is generally not a legitimate poll.

Perhaps the most famous alleged use of push polls is in the 2000 United States Republican Party primaries, when it was alleged that George W. Bush's campaign used push polling to torpedo the campaign of Senator John McCain. Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?", an allegation that had no substance, but planted the idea of undisclosed allegations in the minds of thousands of primary voters. McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bangladeshi girl.

The main advantage of push polls is that they are an effective way of maligning an opponent ("pushing" voters away) while avoiding responsibility for the distorted or false information used in the push poll. They are risky for the same reason: if credible evidence emerges that the polls were ordered by a campaign, it would do serious damage to that campaign. Push polls are also relatively expensive, having a far higher cost per voter than radio or television commercials. Thus push polls are most effective in elections with fewer voters, such as party primaries, or in close elections where a relatively small change in votes can mean victory or loss.


From Wikipedia.


A lot has been made of the recent Steadman poll that had mixed results for the Oranges and the Bananas.

On the one hand, it projected that Kenyans were going to reject the Wako Draft by a percentage point hovering below 50% with a chunk of undecideds in the two digit figures.

On the other hand it slated Kibaki as the most popular politician were a Presidential election to be held today.

CONTINUED...

[Onyango Oloo]

PART TWO:

Both camps rejected the poll- while simultaneously making whatever political hay they could to advance their immediate referendum agenda.

I was among those who were very skeptical of the sample, the methodology and the subsequent findings of the survey. Another person was someone who posts on the JUKWAA forum using the handle "Job". Let me repost his comment verbatim:

Some statistical flaws in poll methodology.
----------------------------------------------------------

1) 52 out of 74 districts sampled. More of the 12 districts excluded, fall generally in NO (Orange) zones. Stedman should have injected a little more cash to do a complete national survey in all districts.

2) While the urban: rural sampling ratio of 35:65 is fair, proportionate sampling with respect to population densities ought to have been considered. It does not make sense to sample 50 respondents in Garissa & 50 respondents in Gucha for instance.

3) On the Presidential poll, it is outrightly inaccurate to sample respondents in Kibaki's home district of Nyeri, then fail to sample respondents in the home districts of other contenders. Notice failure to sample respondents in Mwingi (Kalonzo's home district) & Kangundo; & failure to sample respondents in Thika (Uhuru's home district) & neighboring Gatanga. This would significantly alter the poll outcome portrayed in statistically significant margins.

4) Given the close-ended nature of the forthcoming referendum question, i.e. either YES or NO, the % of undecided voters in the Steadman poll, is apparently too high, (22%). In more scientific polls, this may indicate a methodological flaw from numerous factors that the surveyors could possibly need to address next time. If you give three options of responses in the question, i.e. YES, NO, or UNDECIDED, and a different pollster gives only two responses YES, or NO (as would be offered on the referendum day), the later pollster may reflect more accurate depiction.

5) The referendum question in itself may induce or influence short term bias with regard to preferred presidential choices, hence concurrent sampling of the presidential poll inherits innate
errors which may be divorced right after the referendum day.
For instance, somebody may currently prefer any candidate other than Kibaki just because they dislike the Wako draft, or another may just prefer Kibaki since they perceive the other contenders as Kibaki saboteurs with regard to the Constitution. Thus the presidential poll question was bound to be skewed ... this is not the right time to get an accurate Presidential poll.

Lastly,

a) I contend that the overall NO lead is far greater than portrayed. (statistical assumption)
b) That the undecided vote is much smaller than portrayed.
c) That the undecided voters, can swing either way before November 21st.
d) That both NO & YES sides have solid base constituencies that are unlikely to change their minds before november 21st.
e) That a lot of money has been wasted in CKRC conducted civic education since very few citizens may even attend such classes (reportedly 10% have so far attended). The lessons may influence very little in the voting patterns.
f) That a lot of our national resources have been wasted in trying to woo support for the Wako draft, & that may all come to naught on November 21st.

Having lived in North America for almost twenty years now, I am very familiar with the nexus between polling and politics. In Canada every major political party has their very own, in house polling agency.

These companies not only help the back room strategists keep a pulse on what the electorate is feeling and saying, but even more cynically, they help to shape those very opinions that they ostensibly set out to measure in an ironic twist worthy of a posthumous Orwellian novella.

Often these polling companies do their surveys in conjunction with media houses- the major newspaper chains and the major television networks, which are in turn also in the habit of manufacturing, massaging and otherwise spin doctoring what some people naively imagine to be the "daily news". Nowadays there is a very thin, almost non-existent line between hard news and infomercials. The most notorious instance is of course the obscene phenomenon which punctuated the US invasion of Iraq where American journalists were "embedded"with the military troops in the foxholes and bunkers of Basra, Fallujah and Baghdad, even as four star generals auditioned to be CNN anchors and commentators- with all these alleged "news organizations" feeding their viewers, readers and listeners straight up Pentagon propaganda while denouncing the breaking news of Arab journalists being shot to death by coalition forces as "Jihadist TV lies" because the source was Al Arabiya or Aljazeera.

Having watched this pornographic mind control and brain washing experiment in progress in real time, and having been myself a long term community based radio programmer, I have developed a very healthy distaste for and skepticism towards polls and other slanted mainstream media plants.

I know for instance that during an election campaign, having a friendly journalist tell your version of the "truth" is way more valuable than buying up half an hour of commercial satellite broadcasting time.

Ever since it emerged on the Kenyan scene, the Steadman Group has inspired a mix of awe and suspicion. Conspiracy theory buffs speculate that one of its American principals in Nairobi, Tom Wolf is actually a bona fide CIA officer( Bio of Tom gleaned from the web:Tom Wolf (African Studies ’73) is principal author (along with Dr. C. Logan and J. Owiti) of the Kenya Afrobarometer Survey, released in March, 2004. The Afrobarometer project (based at Michigan State University but in liaison with research institutes in Accra and Cape Town) has, since 1999, released reports of public opinion/behavioral surveys undertaken in a over a dozen sub-Saharan African countries. The overall purpose of the surveys is both to provide factual baselines on the progress of political and economic reform in Africa, and to encourage elected officials and policy-makers to pay more attention to what "ordinary people" experience and think about critical current issues in the public realm. The Kenya report, like all the others that have been released (as well as various Occasional Papers on particular issues examined on a cross-national basis), can be accessed at: www.afrobarometer.org. Wolf has been a resident of Kenya for over twenty years, having previously taught at the University of Nairobi and served as Democracy/Governance Advisor for USAID/Kenya. He is now a private consultant.)- but then again, who isn’t if you are to believe every conspiracy rumour mongered on the internet?

Since I am not at home to gauge it on the ground and since I often only access reports of the actual Steadman surveys rather than the surveys themselves in original hard copy, there are several layers of filtering that I have to navigate, making allowances that I may be reacting to a reaction of a reaction.

CONTINUED....>

[Onyango Oloo]

PART THREE:

Instead of rehashing the little I know about opinion polls, why don’t I just furnish a link to a Wikipedia entry on the subject and take it from there:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

From the above it is obvious that opinion polls are pliable and liable to a lot of outside spin doctoring depending on what the issues are.

Since I did not see the original survey, my critical comments on it will be circumscribed by my limited knowledge.

At the same time, I largely concur with the critique provided by "Job" in the preceding paragraphs.

I would like to explore the introduction of polling in Kenyan politics for a second.

To my mind, this represents another manifestation of the Americanization of mainstream neocolonial Kenyan political discourse.

We can expect more of the same.

Indeed, we are already seeing other manifestations of this US style electioneering publicity and promotion.

Last week we saw an American style "debate" which was more tailored along the format of that ridiculous

CNN Cross Fire show that was

mercifully euthanized after the

Daily Show’s Jon Stewart mocked and berated its two hapless hosts on the eve of the 2004 Presidential elections in the USA.

The fact that the much ballyhooed "Big Debate" was stacked with Kenyan MEDIA OWNERS in Nairobi rather than real breathing, hard hitting Kenyan journalists helped to elicit the kind of incendiary and caustic political commentary that has already earned

David Ochami a stint in the coolers and which we produce below from his current Sunday Times column:

That had been anticipated and marketed as Kenya’s biggest debate easily degenerated into an anticlimax thanks to the moderator’s recklessness and bias. Rose Kimotho achieved what she and the Media Owners Association had planned beforehand i.e. to strike a blow for the Banana campaign. As they celebrated their genius journalism was left the poorer and the silent majority of journalists the shamed.

Five days later, most journalists would rather media owners, like other capitalists remained content with expropriating their labour for a penury and refrained from exporting untutored instincts and poisonous tentacles into the trade of gathering, writing and analyzing news- the only area where reporters still possess some degree of control.

They would rather these capitalists stopped soiling journalism's good name by purporting to practice what they do not know. MOA must be wrestled to the ground and killed, for it is today the biggest problem to journalists and a constant reminder of their slavery.

Those who have watched in horror as the MOA, which Kimotho chairs, systematically wades into partisan politics at the State’s behest with its official’s grand-standing and posturing, now deserve answers in the wake of the debate, as to the group’s relevance and its prime movers’ commitment to the critical issues affecting journalists such as low pay, draconian laws and State terrorism meted on their employees.

MOA has now become a monster and Gema mouthpiece with a political mission, to protect the Kibaki state and foster its agenda. In its current ethnic mould its aims and modus operandi can only be at cross purposes with that of journalists, and aspirations of the democratic majority that were humiliated that Tuesday. It has fought a strong KUJ and orchestrated the rise of competitive organisations such as the Editors Guild, Media Council and a crop of subservient editors; that unholy alliance that sows incest in the trade.

Instead of being content with being businessmen in the background, they arrogate themselves new roles as self-styled experts; to teach journalists about press freedom, responsible journalism and patriotism, forgetting their role in pauperising reporters. MOA has not acquitted itself well even when it attempted to discharge its mandate. It selectively chooses what to condemn and praise. MOA sat idly by and applauded when KUJ got caught in a corruption scandal and also when the president’s wife raided newsrooms to terrorise journalists only to jump with the toothcomb when reporters were threatened by the Orange camp. Yet the Orange threat was based on the open genocidal output issuing from the ethnic TV, radio and newspapers operated by the dominant forces within MOA.

Raphael Tuju and Rose Kimotho have said nothing about the hate media even as they pontificate about sideshows. And the Kibaki administration has sustained this press with advertisements revenue. They also have minted millions printing the Wako Draft constitution. On Tuesday night MOA’s neutrality in the Big Debate could only be assured to the extent that its important members support the Wako Draft, they are allies with the ruling elite and have stepped up ethnic propaganda without censure from the Media Council and Information minister. And also to the extent that Tuju was participating!

From the start, Kimotho sought to impose a predetermined agenda. She sought to restrict and limit the debate and twist it to a particular corner first by ruling that the debaters would be required to talk about the ‘real issues’ and avoid what Waruru Wachira calls “too much politics.”

Next she chose journalists, all of them, save one, of questionable analytical depth and coached them on what to ask the debaters. Viewers and listeners were not allowed to call in with live questions.

Why should journalists be controlled by a moderator unless the intention is to twist the debate to a desired corner? Why did Kimotho and Wachira attempt to create an artificial gap between the contents of the Draft and the so-called “too much politics” or purport to divorce them from the historical issues and persons such as the president who have contributed to today’s stalemate? The intention was achieved when Tuju was allowed to roam at large and like Snowball of Animal Farm accorded the latitude to debase such a momentous debate and occasion.

Under what arrangement do editors of the Kenya Times, Nation, Standard, People Daily, KTN attend MOA’s functions?

CONTINUED........>

[Onyango Oloo]

PART FOUR:

The other component that has been very obvious in the Wako Mongrel Referendum campaign has been American style dirty tricks and smear tactics with its related propaganda sibling- fear mongering and pushing the ethnic buttons.

Since the vast majority of Kenyans share the same race, we see the dirty tricks architects falling back on ethnicity, tribal identities, religious differences and regional stereotypes.

As with America, these tactics are usually resorted to by political machines that are content free and do not have a leg to stand on when it comes to discussing real substantive issues.

Look at in this way, the Steadman surveys should be seen as a conscious tool to influence the voters in the run up to the elections.

I am arguing that the Steadman Group is NOT neutral. They are plugging for ONE SIDE and are part of a conscious, meticulously planned campaign to scuttle the other side.

So which side is Steadman on?

A superficial reading would peg them as Orange eaters rather than Banana peelers.

But that is exactly what it is- a cursory and superficial look.

Let us delve a little deeper.

The press reports indicate that the Steadman are giving the Orange side a slight edge over the Banana opponents.

And that is where the travesty, the fraud, the spin doctoring begins.

Some of you may be taken slightly aback by my rather strident take.

A certain mind reader on the Kenya Talk forum has actually yanked open Onyango Oloo's mind over the internet to reveal the following to the world:

A small question regarding Raila fanatics & Kibaki
From: _ - Sat, Oct 22, 10:19 AM

Right now Raila fanatics are basically dancing in the streets naked because of the Steadman poll which shows the Orange campaign to have a lead. They are REALLY excited. Even people like Onyango Oloo. They are just pretending when they ask ati "Is this poll really accurate? Who did it count?" Very funny.

That is their right.

Well, perhaps this volunteer clairvoyant will revise their opinion by the time they get to the end of this essay- even though they insist they NEVER EVER read my essays. Chuckle. Chuckle. chuckle.

Let us take another look at those findings shall we?

NAIROBI (Reuters) - The first opinion poll on Kenya's constitution referendum next month shows President Mwai Kibaki heading for defeat because most people think the government-backed document is flawed and cannot be amended.

The poll -- released as the "Yes" and "No" camps formally launched their campaigns on Friday in a contest that has split the east African country and already been marked by violence -- showed the "No" camp 10 percentage points ahead.

The Steadman/Gallup International survey of more than 2,000 people across the country showed that 42 percent of registered voters opposed the first complete overhaul of the constitution since it drawn on the eve of independence from Britain in 1963.

The percentage in favour was 32 percent, with those undecided at 22 percent. Kenyans will vote on November 21.

Let us break it down:

More than 2,000 people (in 53 districts) were surveyed;
42% are reported to be opposed to the Wako Draft;
32% are supposed to be in favour of the Draft;
22% are allegedly "undecided";

Without rehashing Job’s objections, let us measure these results against the concrete reality of what Kenyans have been witnessing first hand during the campaigns. Literally hundreds of thousands of Kenyans have attended the Orange and Banana rallies and thousands have participated in call in radio shows, watched television coverage, jousted on online forums; scores of media commentators have weighed in on the Wako Draft.

CONTINUED.......>

[Onyango Oloo]

PART FIVE:

Now let us ask some very direct, objective and factual questions:

Between

the Banana and Orange teams which meetings have drawn the largest crowds?

In terms of media commentary, what is the split in terms of pundits weighing in for one side or the other?

For those of us participating in online forums, what is the percentage of Kenyans who have NOT YET made up their minds whether they would vote yes or no?
Between the Yes and NO teams, who has been better organized?

Now, I read an interview featuring Kiraitu Murungi about two weeks ago when my former lawyer said that many of the people attending those huge Orange rallies were doing it for entertainment purposes while Father Dolan decried all those idle youths who have so much time on their hands that they pack those rallies in mid week. At the same time we are made to understand that the Yes side may be holding the trump card because apparently their supporters have registered in a greater proportion than the Orange side.

Well, what Kiraitu and Father Dolan may very well be true.

Many of the people who voted for Kibaki were the same idle youths who were looking forward to the NARC government to create employment to keep them busy- and they were thoroughly entertained on the way to voting booths by songs like Unbwogable and Yote Yawezekana Bila KANU. If they still have their voting cards, they may even more time and more motivation for voting against the Wako Draft- just maybe.

More seriously though we just have to look at some simple facts.

The Orange team has managed to campaign in each of Kenya’s provinces- including such alleged Yes strongholds as Thika, Kiambu, Kisii and lately six locations in Meru including the backyard of the Mongrel’s Dr Frankenstein, Kiraitu Murungi. The reception that the Uhurus, Railas, Rutos, Balalas, Mudavadis, Nyongos, Kalonzos etc have experienced has challenged the assumptions that Kenyans have been swayed by the tribal tripe flowing from the

Nyachaes, Karumes, Kombos, Ngilus, Mungatanas, Michukis, Karuas and the like.

Yesterday, Musikari Kombo had to speed away from an irate Bumala crowd and yet the FORD-Kenya Supremo is supposed to have locked up the Western Kenyan vote for the Bananiacs. Mzee Nyachae was egg-splattered with aibu in his turf when there was a mass walkout right in the middle of the Vice President’s speech. John Koech cannot venture into his own village without a small platoon of security personnel in tow. Twice the Yes said have been shooed away by Kenyans in the North Eastern province and we know how the Akamba people heckled the Yes campaigners. And of course the shouting down of Kirwa in the middle of the Koitalel celebrations was embarrassing precisely because the Nandi people were telling the President to his face that his point men were totally discredited at the grassroots.

All these events have been captured by live television cameras, instant digital photography, tape recordings by print and radio journalists,

political cartoonists and of course in note pads by the country’s hard working reporters.

Scanning the live, non-sampled ongoing coverage of the referendum campaign it is more than obvious that the entire country is

going Orange.

In 2002 Kenyans predicted a landslide defeat for KANU using the same yardsticks of massive public rallies, militant expressions of anti-government sentiment and a coalescing of public opinion in favour of NARC and against the Uhuru Project. That time because the Kibakis, the Kiraitus and the Ngilus were the recipients of this popular upsurge, they had no hesitation in projecting victory months in advance.

We remember all of these Yes voters predicting a landslide- and they were right because the same hundreds of thousands of people who came to JKIA to welcome Kibaki back home also stood in line for hours on election day:









Why should the same Kenyan voter behave differently- ati attend Orange rally after Orange rally while secretly saving up his or her vote for the Banana team?

That does not sound remotely plausible.

It is in this context that one must begin to question the Steadman numbers.

Is it really ONLY 42% of Kenyans who are opposed to the Wako Draft?

Empirical evidence would suggest double this figure.

Are there that many people who support the Wako Draft?

It would appear that these numbers may have been padded because they certainly do not reflect the cross country, multi-ethnic and multi-faith, cross generational and all gender opposition to the Wako Draft that all Kenyans have seen in the streets, online, in the newspaper letter columns and in the radio and television studios.

Most shocking of all:

In this passionately fought campaign, are the Steadman people actually serious that MORE THAN 20% of Kenyans have not made up their minds about whether they support or reject the draft?

Going by what I have seen online heard from live contacts on the ground and seen from media reports, the VAST MAJORITY of Kenyans made up their minds a very long time ago.

If I were to hazard a guess I would peg the undecided to less than 10% and that is being extremely generous.

So why the skewed figures?

Well for an answer, you will have to look at the other aspects of the Steadman polling- the personal popularity ratings where Kibaki inexplicably comes out ON TOP!

Where?

In Mombasa?

In Eldoret?

In Garissa?

In Kisumu?

In Kakamega?

Who were they talking to?

Why was Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta mobbed when they made a brief appearance at the TD Jakes rally?

If that crowd had been sampled, how would they have responded?

And Nairobi is allegedly Banana country ama?

Here is my candid opinion:

The Steadman folks are sending this subliminal message to their target demographic:

"Psst. Shh. Psst....The Orange team is NOT really popular. Look... they have less than 50% of the potential vote.... And the Yes side may be able to take a substantial bite into that 22% of the alleged "undecided" if they try to parlay Kibaki’s presumed personal popularity to make people FORGET the fatal flaws of the Wako Mongrel....Psst. Etc..."

This makes even more sense when you dovetail it to one of the planks of the Yes team:

The Referendum is supposedly a showdown between Kibaki and Raila- who Steadman reports only has 6% of the popular support.

Now if you further combine this push polling with the skewed caricature of debates tilted in favour of media owners as opposed to real journalists, then it is clear that the Yes side believes that they can win this war using Madison Avenue tactics.

But that is where they are disastrously wrong.

You see there is a major difference between the American voter and the Kenyan voter.

The American voter is slightly more ignorant, gullible and open to manipulation than their Kenyan counterparts who have historically been more politically sophisticated than they are given credit for. Since many of Kenya’s rural dwellers do not access these largely urban targeted slick marketing techniques, it is largely a waste of a lot of money that would have been better used buying matoke for famished Banana supporters.

The NAK gang together with the Steadmans, Macharias and Kimothos will soon discover that they have to be slightly more complex if they are to make any headway into getting into the heads of politically conscious Kenyan voters.

My advice to the NO side is to COMPLETELY IGNORE the Steadman poll and trust what they can see with their own eyes, hear with their own ears and feel with through their own pores:

Most of Kenya is SCREAMING NO! at the sight of the

Wako

Mongrel.


The Orange team SHOULD NOT waste valuable time and resources in trying to debunk the anomalies of the Steadman poll. In fact in the second debate, they should not fall for the shouting match red herring/diversionary traps of the Tujus. Every time they answer a question they should instead look at the viewer at home and repeat the gist of the reasons why they should vote against the Wako Draft. At this stage they should not spend any time trying to publicize the Bomas Draft- it is very familiar to most Kenyans who will vote- but rather demolish the Wako Mongrel utterly. Remember it is only the Wako Draft which is on the ballot and that is why the focus should be on reiterating the NO reasons.

Unless the NAK Bananiacs RIG the poll, arrest the Orange leaders or stage a melodramatic diversion, they are going down to utter defeat.

By the way, I hear rumours, not yet confirmed, that NO MATTER WHAT the outcome of the poll result is, Kibaki plans to shock Kenyans by announcing snap elections.

That would be foolhardy, equivalent to political suicide and I hope they are not relying on the wobbly Steadman projections because they may be in for a major disappointment.


Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[job]

Oloo,

I can't agree more (with your poll postulations). Without going back to the poll's methodological flaws which created obvious bias, errors & imprecision, there is most likely some political motivation behind this steadman poll,....... I think you termed it "push polling".

Infact the idea of concurrently sampling both the Wako draft & preferred Presidential candidate seems quite suspect.

Somebody seems to be desperately trying to re-direct the referendum question into a popularity contest between Kibaki vs Raila on one hand, and NARC vs LDP or KANU on the other, having realized the unpopularity of the Wako draft.

In an attempt to influence the vote, the pollster seems to be telling Kenyans that afterall, Kibaki is still the most popular presidential candidate (which could infact be wrong), and NARC the most popular "party".............so voters just vote (YES) with your President!

Put bluntly, they're telling Kenyans, that the Kalonzo's, Uhuru's, Raila's etc are leading them "nowhere", since Kibaki is still "liked" by most Kenyans anyway. They may be suggesting too that NARC, in its present tattered form, is still very popular. I don't know about that.

Why a "scientific" poll conducts a survey based on unconventional premises is buffling too, for instance, ...........Why did the Steadman poll list NARC, (a publicly known coalition) alongside individual political parties, DP, LDP, KANU, Ford-K... etc. Conventional polling requires sampling of comparable parameters or variables, thus if you are sampling PARTIES, please sample PARTIES alone & not goats, shoes, coalitions, or anything else.

If steadman wanted to gauge the popularity of coalitions or alliances, they should have polled between NARC & ODM, which appropriately fall in the same category, to avoid any mischief.

I'll not delve beyond that since, just like the debate, the poll will neither make the Wako draft better (or more popular) nor convert SIGNIFICANT Orange votes into Banana votes (or vice -versa).

Ghai's Review analysis.
-----------------------------
Folk's,

I thought that opening piece for the continuing series by Ghai was great & I look forward to get more of his perspective.

Ambassador Ngaithe.
---------------------------

UNCONFIRMED info from a RELIABLE source here in Washington DC indicates that Ngaithe may not be coming back for duty in the US capital after all. He may be coming back just to pack & officially hand over to a newly appointed Consular & Deputy Ambasador. That is if his relentless pleas for mercy stand ignored by the female led US State dept.

While a new Ambassador has not been officially appointed by Kibaki, a Deputy Ambassador, a Mrs. Sambu has just been deployed to Washington DC from Nairobi. Note that the Deputy Ambassador position has been vacant for some time since the redeployment of
Mr. Esipila to Ethiopia a few months back.

Some insiders opine that Esipila, like his predecessor Amollo, ( I deliberately excluded Mwiraria's youthful proxy who came without credentials & tried to force himself on the job unsuccessfully) both seemed to have over-shadowed the Ambassador with regard to high level diplomacy duties hence their quick re-posts.

Ngaithe on the other hand apparently compensated the deficiency by heartedly warming up & entertaining groups of senior government officials visiting DC for duty, & generally being nice to the Kenyan community in the Washington metropolis. It is said Mwiraria felt very comfortable sitting beside him at the numerous Bretton Woods meetings.

It was recently reported that Ngaithe had been instructed to report in Nairobi to assist the Kenyan government conclude its investigations on the alleged New York rape of a fellow female diplomat.

Sources indicate that he pitched in a spirited fight (strongly supported by his wife) to keep his job & save his career through a high powered network that included many calls to Finance Minister Mwiraria, Njoki Ndungu, Chris Murungaru, PS (Foreign Affairs) Baya, Foreign Affairs Minister, Mwakwere & a mid level staffer Winnie Mwai.

The State Dept. seems to have stuck its ground on its zero tolerance diplomacy policy which strictly enforces diplomatic etiquette & standards amongst all diplomatic staff. Back & forth correspondence between the US & Kenya governments have seen numerous pleas by high ranking Kenyan officials rejected.

So, unlike Murungaru who still keeps his Ministerial job despite bad publicity, Ngaithe maybe unlucky here, in the sense that Uncle Sam may not bend his rules for any "special" case, as argued by Nairobi based barons.


peace.

unedited.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

Excerpted from the Daily Nation, Monday, October 24, 2005:

Mr Odinga also dismissed an opinion poll by Steadman Group as Government sponsored.

"Kenyans will not consider the opinion poll because it showed that there is a very small margin between the Orange and the Banana," he said

But he assured the people of Isiolo that No vote will sail through by 65 per cent during the referendum.

Mr Odinga claimed that in two weeks time, the firm will release another opinion poll which will indicate that the Banana will be leading.

The Roads minister claimed the Government played a hand in the poll because it also went ahead to show that President Kibaki's popularity remained high.

[abdulmote]

Here is my peni mbili on the poll thing; Was I to find myself in desperate need to support someone or something, failure of which may potentially result in putting my life in the way of harm should my enemy succeed against me, chances are that I will be trying even harder to enhance that support, was I to be made to think that the opposing force has a greater chance of succeeding against me! But wait a minute, here I am told that a prediction of the narrow margin/possible defeat against my wishes or desires, may mean that I am going to submissively give in and so let my enemy have his way, irrespective of the undesired consequencies!

On the other hand, was I to believe that there will be sufficient others who are likely or certainly going to defeat my enemy, even without my personal participation which to my thinking may hardly make any further significant difference, then chances are, I may even decide to stay at home knowing full well that there are 'sufficient others' who will do the job for me! Possibly then resulting in my actual loss due to my own complacency of relying upon others to fight my wars for me! That is to some extent an obvious rational choice given the scenario.

Which means, to me at least, that the Steadman poll should be good enough to alarm the Orange followers for that 'extra push', being in fear of the potential and or narrow defeat lying ahead! It should thus follow in effect, for the poll to show that the margin is so narrow in between, is even more the better as an incentive towards hardening the resolve of the machungwa resolutes, and so agitate for a more determined support.

I don't mind that. Besides, I do not yet fully understand of the suggested advantage to the bananas out of the said poll., but I think on the contrary!

Having said that, it is my opinion that the Orange men and women on the ground, should instead use the 'threat' so possed by the poll, to alarm/alert their supporters of the impending danger as forcasted, and encourage the same to ensure that they have registered themselves for voting on the referendum, and so increase the chances of defeating the determined enemies of the nation, and that would be using the poll results, cooked or not, to their own advantage! Otherwise why treat the poll results as if they were the actual 'end of the referendum' results?

Na hii mambo ya ati Kibaki being the preferred candidate for the presidency with a potential 32% win were the elections to be called today, is neither here nor there.

Mind you, 32% is roughly just a third of the deciding electorate, which means there are still another 68% who would vote against him although spread about! Kwani didn't Moi beat the 'reformers' hands down at least twice with his 'third', simply because they were such a split up lot and not just because the majority actually 'preferred him to the others? What then happened in 2003 after the Rainbow Coalition came into existence?

Have we forgotten that it is just a matter of organising some 'MoU', getting the 68% together, and kicking the mafias out of the statehouse without giving them an opportunity to pack their bags?!

But cetainly that can only be acheived so long as the history of greed and selfishness shall not be the guide upon those who have to decide!

History kweli has a tendency of repeating itself.

[kamalet]

abdulmote said:

Na hii mambo ya ati Kibaki being the preferred candidate for the presidency with a potential 32% win were the elections to be called today, is neither here nor there.

Mind you, 32% is roughly just a third of the deciding electorate, which means there are still another 68% who would vote against him although spread about!

Abdulmote,

This is the one reason you should vote YES! You should never agree to be ruled by a leader with only 33% of the vote like Moi did all those years!

If Kibaki wants to rule us again, then he must garner more than the 33% Steadman says Kenyans will give him.

YES FOR KATIBA MPYA!

[abdulmote]

But then, we must also remember that the 32/33% 'allocated' to Kibaki by steadman may only be so simply in the absence of the Presidential campaigns that will be inevitable! One must also bear in mind that when that time actually arrives, some will certainly be able to 'expose' to the masses, so much negatives of Kebaki that without any doubt, there will be others who will be lured to change their minds against him! Certainly so, the 33% has no assurace of remaining static or even improve upwards for that matter! Na hivyo ndivyo ilivyo.

Bwana Kamale, as far as I am concerned about our Kenyan politics, I feel solidly convinced that we are indeed a long way from getting the 'ruler' we want. Votes or no votes, I am yet to see any potential leader who will patriotically take Kenya to the new heights of the just and equal society.

Kwahivyo hiyo katiba haijatosheleza suala hilo.