Who said kibaki is just about to share?

[deyiengs]

Folks,

Today’s news will shock others who thought that kibaki will let some power slip out.
GEMA MPs called a press conference where they out rightly and openly demonized the US and other International pressure.

Wetangula himself had a press conference and likened that pressure to someone placing a gun on their heads and demanding that “either…or..!” Condoleeza’s visit has really irked PANU. They are openly against it. Unfortunately they don’t offer any solutions or put something on the table.

"We encourage our friends to support us and not to make any mistake of putting a gun to anybody's head and saying 'either' 'or' because that cannot work,"

Meanwhile, somewhere in Nyeri, PANU supporters went to the streets and demonstrated against the US and British by burning their flags and effigies.

So again, we are heading to some deadlock, just as we had predicted when these talks commenced, it was unlikely that any solutions would emanate from them. Very little if none will be achieved. What kills me is how everyone has regarded those talks. How people’s hopes were pegged on those talks. Annan will surely find out who he was dealling with.

politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?pcat=NEWS&cat=TOP&sid=1495

[pippyza]

deyiengs said:

Folks,

Today’s news will shock others who thought that kibaki will let some power slip out.
GEMA MPs called a press conference where they out rightly and openly demonized the US and other International pressure.

Wetangula himself had a press conference and likened that pressure to some placing a gun on their heads and demanding that “either…or..!” Condoleeza’s visit has really irked PANU. They are openly against it. Unfortunately they don’t offer any solutions or put something on the table.

"We encourage our friends to support us and not to make any mistake of putting a gun to anybody's head and saying 'either' 'or' because that cannot work,"

Meanwhile, somewhere in Nyeri, PANU supporters went to the streets and demonstrated against the US and British by burning their flags and effigies.

So again, we are heading to some deadlock, just as we had predicted when these talks commenced, it was unlikely that any solutions would emanate from them. Very little if none will be achieved. What kills me is how everyone has regarded those talks. How people’s hopes were pegged on those talks. Annan will surely find out who he was dealling with.

politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?pcat=NEWS&cat=TOP&sid=1495

I agree with you on this.

This Nyeri Demo seem to have been organised by some concerned indvidual who don´t wanna let power go off her/his hand.

Fortunately, The world could have known through their myopic media coverage that the minority protesters were from Kibaki´s Kikuyu tribe ( or Nyerians to be exact).

[adongo23456]

The PNU brigade went full stretch this weekend to try pushing their usual head in the sand agenda. They don't look too happy, do they?

In reality Kibaki has no intention of ceding anything. Anyone who can steal an election in a blatant rigging and push the country to the verge of a catastrophe is not going to give up anything. The only way Kibaki gives up any powers is when the situation is outside his control.

PNU had a bad week. First Annan let the shared power agenda slip. Karua went ballistics. Then they went to the resort and the big idea that came was a refined power sharing formula. Then Bush joined the fray and now they have Condoleezza Rice to deal with. So Wetangula comes up and talks about foreigners trying to push a solution.

Ayang' Nyong'o responded to that in a very nice way telling Wetangula the ideas of power sharing and a new Constitution has been with Kenyans for almost two decades and has nothing to do with foreigners. Nyong'o was right. People like Wetangula are trying to create the impression that it is the Americans and the British who are advocating for power sharing etc. That is hogwash. The proposal for power sharing at is exists today emerged from the Annan Team and were suggestions of Kenyans.

The resort to mass hysteria by PNU tells me they are very worried. Believe me if the ODM was holding rallies making demands on the talks Kibaki and Saitoti would be sending the cops to feed them with teargas.

So far what Kibaki and the PNU are telling Kenyans is that all they want is for the ODM to endorse their illegal regime and they will reward the ODM with a few cabinet positions. The stupidity of that proposal is not worth bothering with any more. Suffice is to say, the ODM will never accept that position. It is nonsense.

To me the real pressure is not on PNU this week. Annan meets Kibaki tomorrow. I suspect Kibaki will tell him the same garbage that whatever changes are proposed have to be within the current constitution. The truth of the matter is that nothing sensible can be worked within the current constitution. Whatever changes the Annan team proposes will require some immediate amendments to the constitution. What the Kibaki team are afraid of saying is that they want to keep all the powers period.

The real pressure is on ODM this week. The merry go around must come to an end. They have stated their position, they have made concessions like allowing Kibaki to keep the presidency for a period of time. If Kibaki and his folks don't accept that it is time for them to come to their supporters and tell them as well as the whole world that Kibaki is not willing to budge. That is all they are required to do and I am very confident that they are going to make that call this week. It is about time. If Kibaki is willing to deal then let's get it done, otherwise forget the talks.

My sense is that there is a great sense of confidence from the ODM. They feel they have made their case before the world and before the nation and that Kenyans by and large support them. I have very good feelings about the possibilities. I just don't know what they are.

adongo

[deyiengs]

Ohh boy, what happened to those broad smiles that used to fill our screens? These jamaas are just drained, they can't understand why no one except Uganda is recognizing their illegal govt. even Mogadishu is yet to send a congratulatory message.

Then there is this issue of following the constitution, they just can't understand that the world's super powers who are known to be the pace-setters for democracy are not buying the go-to-court orders they're trying to bring. Not even Koffi himself is mentioning that. No one except PANUaist themselves!

Something must have gone wrong somewhere. I remember when that British Minister spoke to kibaki in state house and clarified that "they recognize Kenya(as a state)" PPS quickly sent faxes to news room of the 'good news'. Only to be clarified later by Clay! These folks are truly desperate. Not even China, their ammunition suppiers and their only hope is not recognizing them!

[enigma]

deyiengs said:

Ohh boy, what happened to those broad smiles that used to fill our screens? These jamaas are just drained, they can't understand why no one except Uganda is recognizing their illegal govt. even Mogadishu is yet to send a congratulatory message.

Then there is this issue of following the constitution, they just can't understand that the world's super powers who are known to be the pace-setters for democracy are not buying the go-to-court orders they're trying to bring. Not even Koffi himself is mentioning that. No one except PANUaist themselves!

Something must have gone wrong somewhere. I remember when that British Minister spoke to kibaki in state house and clarified that "they recognize Kenya(as a state)" PPS quickly sent faxes to news room of the 'good news'. Only to be clarified later by Clay! These folks are truly desperate. Not even China, their ammunition suppiers and their only hope is not recognizing them!

Anyone who is still advocating going to court is a waster. That option was discarded when we went for mediation. Mediation is a form of Alternative dispute resolution. You cannot participate in such a process and take the same matter to court. In fact one of the terms of engagement in this process is the option not to take legal action; except in cases where solutions have been determined and then one party reneges on implementation. That is why Kofi ruled out anything to do with the judiciary. Clearly these PNU guys have not been familiarized with what is happening. They do not know the mechanics of mediation, neither can they separate their position from their interests.

[mzee]

At the AU meeting in Addis Ababa Kibaki pointed out that the elections were free and fair and reflected the will of the people. Just before that he had stated that he was the “duly elected president”. According to Mr. wetengula PANU“… encourage our friends to support us and not make any mistake of putting a gun to anybody's head and saying 'either/or', because that cannot work”

The bandit president has agreed that there is a problem that needs to be resolved and that’s why he has sent a team to negotiate with ODM. He also knows that there is no way he shall rule the country without ODM as the wanainchi will never ever accept such rubbish. Besides, both PANU and ODM have agreed to form a joint government, the only contention is what form the joint government should take. PANUists want a situation where Kibaki keeps all the powers and appoint a few ODM MP`s to the cabinet. While ODM wants a clear division of powers between the state and the government. But MKM wing of PANU being Railaphobists, only see this in terms of ceding power to one Agwambo Tinga.

We all know that elections did not reflect the will of the people so its high time people stopped repeating themselves as far as the issue in concerned. Apart from the few countries as Somalia, Zimbabwe and Uganda which have recognised Kibaki as a legitimate president of Kenya, no other country that matters has. In fact 6 out of 8 provinces in Kenya do not recognise Kibaki as their elected leader. The people’s president according to most Kenyans is Raila Amolo Odinga.

That makes me wonder why Wetengula is wasting his time shouting hoarse instructing “foreigners” on do and don’ts, while in the country. Now the reason of PANUs attempt to scare off Dr. Condi Rice and pre-empt what they suspected she was going to say has not worked. Dr. Rice was to the point, telling the bandit president, without mincing her words that Kenyans wanted a “stable, legitimate government that enjoyed the confidence of Kenyans.” In other words return the stolen cow to the owner. The so called government that is attacking US/UK/EU has not even been able to feed the displaced let alone protect them. It’s the countries being attacked that have tried to bring aid to people on the ground.

www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=117124

Ok, Kibaki and the MKM can be rigid and even refuse to share power. In fact they must be basking in the false sense of security which has returned to the country. They have this feeling that it’s possible to limp along and soon people will get tired. Apart from Central province where American and British flags was burnt yesterday nobody else believes that without power sharing the country could return to normal. The longer they stick to power the lesser the likelihood of IDPs going back. Is this what Kibaki wants? Perhaps, but will the IDPs let him mess up their already messed up life? I don’t think so. Soon they will rise up against the bandit president.

So what can the foreigners do to help the situation? They will be putting what is commonly known as pressure which simply means not dealing with the so called government of Kenya. This might mean threatening with economic sanctions, banning this or that person from travelling to EU/US/UK and so on. But what happens if the so called government is still rigid? As the situation is now, the people will be back in the streets and the mass killing will begin again. Kibaki would again do his usual jig of sending police and GSU to kill people in Kisumu only that this time the residents of the besieged city would be well prepared. 6 other provinces apart from Central and parts of Eastern would also rise against the illegitimate government. At this point Kibaki and his cronies would have to come back to their senses or the country would turn into another Somalia in a matter of weeks.

The Boms draft has to be put in place ASAP or else the only thing we will be hearing about is rumors of war.

[politicalmaniac]

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23201948/

Sen Biden says if Musharaf rigs in Pakistan = NO AID!!
So the MKM and their water carriers must factor in how they will be affected buy International isolation.
But Internal pressure is the main driving force

[politicalmaniac]

in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-32006320080218?sp=true

After meeting Rice, Odinga gave a news conference outlining his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party's proposals for a new position of prime minister, shared executive authority, and a fresh presidential election within two years.

"This is not a love affair. It's something they must do, as the whole world is telling them," Odinga said, when asked if Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) would agree.

Earlier, Kibaki's office issued a statement after his meeting with Rice, saying he remained committed to dialogue and "will continue looking for an amicable solution".

Though emphasis at the moment is on a possible power-sharing deal, many Kenyans also want solutions to complicated, underlying issues such as wealth inequalities, land policies, and the need for constitutional reform.

SO IF PNU WON FAIR AND SQUARE AND ARE POINTING TO KIVUITU - WHO SAID HE DOES NOT KNOW, WHAT ARE THEY DIALOGING ABOUT?

THIS IS A DANGEROUS CHARADE

THOSE ARMY UNITS MOVING TO WESTERN ARE AN INDICATION OF THE BRUTAL ATTEMPT THIS GOVT WILL USE TO SUPRESS DISSENT

[deyiengs]

The lady did not mince her words.
I'm especially delighted on how she's shut down Wetangula. The government is trying to create an impression that the US/EU are trying to push for a solution by 'pointing a gun to their heads'. She said "It's Kenyans who are insisting that their political leaders, that their political class finds a solution to the crisis so that Kenya can move forward,"
What is PANU's next move?

=====================

Rice urges Kenyans to share power

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has urged Kenya's rival leaders to put aside their personal agendas and share power to end the political crisis.
She dismissed suggestions from Kenyan ministers that the US was meddling in Kenyan affairs.

"This is not a matter of dictating a solution to Kenyans," she said after meeting President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga.

At least 1,000 people have died in the clashes over claims of poll-rigging.

The two sides are due to resume talks on a possible power-sharing deal on Tuesday, mediated by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Ms Rice said a coalition was needed "so that Kenya can be governed".

The BBC's Karen Allen in Nairobi says Ms Rice's visit was never expected to end in a deal - but it has underscored the sense of growing impatience that the political deadlock in Kenya still persists two months after disputed elections.

'No illusion'

Ms Rice arrived in Nairobi and went straight into a meeting with Mr Annan, who briefed her on the discussions so far.

Mr Kibaki's team insists he was rightfully elected and has been reluctant to share power.


It's Kenyans who are insisting that their political leaders, that their political class finds a solution to the crisis so that Kenya can move forward
Condoleezza Rice
US Secretary of State


However it has said it would be ready to change the constitution, which could pave the way for Mr Odinga to get the new post of prime minister.
"It can't be that there is simply the illusion of power-sharing, it has to be real," Ms Rice cautioned.

Our correspondent says two weeks of negotiations have made little headway on the controversial issue of power-sharing.

She says that although both sides have agreed the idea of a grand coalition in principle, they appear deadlocked over how it should work in practice.

Ms Rice also dismissed the foreign minister's warning to the international community not to use threats to make the two sides reach a deal.

"It's Kenyans who are insisting that their political leaders, that their political class finds a solution to the crisis so that Kenya can move forward," she said.

Ms Rice said the 27 December presidential election had not produced "an outcome that can lead to the governance of Kenya".


Mr Annan said there had been no attempt by the international community to impose a solution, but simply an insistence that a solution should be found.
On Friday, the former Un secretary general announced that both sides had agreed to set up an independent panel, including Kenyan and non-Kenyan experts, to investigate "all aspects" of the disputed election.

The committee is due to start work on 15 March and submit its report within three to six months, he added.

"We are there, we are very close, we are moving steadily," Mr Annan said after two days of closed-door talks to end the crisis.

Foreign diplomats have warned representatives of both sides of dire consequences if they scupper the process.



news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7250158.stm

[adongo23456]

That is nothing short of a diplomatic fiasco. Rice did not mince any words. She told Wetangula off and hit the nail right on the head letting me them know power shring is not a US or foreign proposal, it is a proposal by Kenyans unless ODM is a party of foreigners.

Secondly she is spot on about having nothing to do with "illusions" of power sharing as opposed to "real" power sharing.

And the clincher is her stance that all these have come about because Kenya does not have a legitimate government. In other words all these people making noise ati they are the government are actually there illegally to begin with. It is an act of magnanimity that they are even allowed to speak as some sort of a government.

And here comes the Daila Nation, finally. I am still waiting for the newly "alive" NCCK and others to speak or forever hold their breath.

www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=24&newsid=117183


EDITORIALS

Why Kenya needs an inclusive government

Publication Date: 2/19/2008

Foreign minister Moses Wetang’ula and some key voices in the Party of National Unity, including Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister Martha Karua and Finance minister Amos Kimunya, are clearly out of tune with the suffering people of Kenya on the crisis facing this nation.

Instead of giving the country hope by demonstrating leadership and magnanimity, these leaders choose to approach the Kofi Annan-led mediation talks with brinkmanship, spewing strident rhetoric at every turn, and now accusing “foreigners” of interfering in the affairs of a sovereign state.

They are adamant that they will not accept a settlement to the post-election stand-off, which draws the sides led by Mr Mwai Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga into a power-sharing arrangement in breach of the present Constitution.

Their remarks come at time that the country faces the threat of civil war if the question of acceptable national leadership is not resolved.

Kenya is indeed a sovereign country with its own Constitution.

But is this really the time to invoke pride in our sovereignty when we have more than 300,000 citizens of this country living as refugees in their own motherland in squalid conditions, precisely because the state has been unable to guarantee them security and access to their homes and property?

This is a country that has just lost 1,000 innocent lives in ethnic clashes, and which remains vulnerable to another outbreak of mindless violence, especially if the Kofi Anan-led mediation process collapses.

While the viability of power-sharing must be critically examined within our political realities, to insist that any such deal must be in line with the constitution under circumstances where the legitimacy of government itself is in dispute, is patently absurd.

Everyone surely knows that the outcome of the flawed General Election is at the very heart of the internationally-driven negotiations taking place in Nairobi.

Top of the mediation agenda is whether or not the election rivals should come together in a coalition which would oversee Constitutional changes to usher the country into a new poll, which, hopefully, would deliver national stability and a widely accepted government. On this issue hang elements of our fate as a nation – ethnic reintegration, resettlement of internal refugees, economic revival, electoral, Constitutional and land reforms and resolution of historical injustices.

These are weighty matters which, by common consent, lie at the heart of our tragic experience. We failed to resolve them when we had the time and space and now we are paying the price. The extremists on the PNU side — who have lately taken to speaking out of turn — must appreciate that the international community did not come to Kenya merely to meddle in the country’s affairs.

Principally, the world has turned its attention to us to reduce the chances of the post-election violence slipping into a Rwanda-type disaster, and to manage the crisis before it gives rise to an expensive relief operation.

It does this from a sense of responsibility and out of foresight. With the resources of international humanitarian organisations taxed heavily by other global commitments in places like Burundi and Darfur, handling wide scale violence of the magnitude witnessed recently in Kenya would be unbearable, especially on the governments which mostly fund relief operations.

Furthermore, the crisis in Kenya has major implications for regional security. Because of Kenya’s potential to either set the pace of development in the region or drag the process, helping the country stabilise is a inescapable task for the international community.

And, finally, there is the welfare of the Kenyan people themselves. This is a crisis whose consequences go way beyond this country’s borders.

Admittedly, some remarks made by foreigners - especially by some locally based diplomats - were of the type to offend nationalistic sensibilities. But this is not an excuse for politicians to whip up xenophobia and mobilise their supporters to hold demonstrations against foreign countries.

To argue that international players have neither a right nor a stake in a crisis with such clear regional and international dimensions, is to be politically dishonest.

Today, Kenya is more ripe for fundamental change than any time in its history. This country needs an exceptional leadership arrangement to hold it together and replenish its self-confidence.

[politicalmaniac]

Kenyans are seeing all this and just shaking their heads.

Something will have to give, either the peoples will for change will die off, or the intransigence of PNU will crumble.
The status quo wont remain sine die.

Option one has been overtaken by events. People have died, hundreds of thousands displaced and property lost. Ethnic borders have been reworked. So change has already began. Its a matter of nudging these changes to their natural conclusion.

PNU has very hard choices to make. Either they remain defiant a la Moi pre- Section 2A enactment and watch the country reignite in flames, or they accept the reasonable demands of ODM.

Its a poisoned chalice, and I am glad I aint the one holding it, ready to sip.

[adongo23456]

eastandard.net/news/?id=1143982088&cid=4

[adongo23456]

This is the actual ODM proposal according the Standard. Makes a lot of sense

www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143982091&cid=4&PHPSESSID=5d76da8714d03e9722a1fb231ad9f4a4

[JAHAATWACH]

If I were to write a book, I would title it: The Majoritarian Minority

[mank]

My ideal solution: Up to a few days ago I would not have advocated for any power sharing. Now I have a compromised position:- (1) Raila's power-sharing plan should be accepted, but only for the interim (say 1 to 2 yrs). (2) Ex-ante, both Raila and Kibaki should be ineligible to vie for presidency in the next presidential elections (to be held at the end of the 1 or 2 yrs): Motivation: to minimize the influence of personal agenda in the consitutional amendement that should occur during the power-sharing period. (3) Constitutional ammendment during the Kibaki/Raila leadership. (4) General, or at least presidential elections (as may be provided for by the ammended constitution) in 1 - 2 yrs (all key players in the constitutional amendement process not to be candidates at this first post ammendment presidential election (this rule, with clear identities of the persons to be affected, should be made ex-ante, i.e. pre-ammendment but as soon as top players are asigned roles).

If we do this, I trust we shall have made lemonade out of the heaps of lemons we got ourselves. There is light at the end of this tunnel. Finally, Kenya should call inter-ethinic feasting in all cities/towns, and have elders lead wananchi through spiritual healing. Kenyans are a good people; its a shame where the world puts them today.

[mossad]

Iam not sure whether i will agree with the two gentlemen whosaid that Kibaki is a good man whos' sorrounded by bad pple. Well their observation is that he's as bad as the pple around him(Kibaki).
Now my disagreemnt comes in coz just like polticalmaniac in another thread, i've consistently questioned kibaki sanity as far as evrything he does is concerned.
Honestly, iam starting to wonder whether kibaki knows whether he's alive amah dead. Truely, we might be dealing with someone who has a mental problem.

Mossad.

[politicalmaniac]

Mossad
The campaign flushed gen kegs out of SH, and thrust him in the open. It was painfully obvious that the guy is mentally incapacitated to some degree. Even during the opening of parliament you could see how mentally dull and unaware he was.
His 'handlers' are ruling by proxy.

[mank]

Whats this about? Do we want to discuss issues, or dont we?

[politicalmaniac]

Well R also reiterates that the sloth gen kegs de othaya is captive to a powerful cabal.

R also says PM post a must, and it must come with powers and responsibility, IOTW, POWER must be SHARED, AND SEEN TO BE SHARED.

"Mr. Odinga has said the prime minister post is the bare minimum he would accept.

“Beyond that, we will be out of government,” he said in an interview Sunday night. He also said that Mr. Kibaki was not the stumbling block but that the problem was a small clique of “hard-liners” around Mr. Kibaki.

“I’m sure he’s willing for a power-sharing arrangement that would give him a decent way out to get our country out of this mess,” Mr. Odinga said.

Mr. Odinga gave a gloomy prognosis, saying that the negotiations would most likely fail and that Kenya would soon be ungovernable.

“The moment it is announced that the talks collapsed, I am sure there will be an eruption countrywide,” he said. “It will be chaos.”

The government has dismissed those threats and accused opposition leaders, including Mr. Odinga, of inciting their supporters to kill people of Mr. Kibaki’s ethnicity. Mr. Odinga has denied that and blamed the government for failing to protect Kenyans.

www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/world/africa/19kenya.html

Ha, the question still remains what option is less painful to the PNUists? Sitting in cabinet meetings with R chairing or facing the wrath of the people from afar and quelling them with brutal force? I am inclined to think that as I write this they are for option 2.

These blowhard clusterf*cks never learn!
The dismissive attitude and casting of aspersions and playing the diversionary blame game of THEM against Gema is now old.

[demogod]

PNU has already said that there is not going to be any power sharing. So, what are we waiting for, the talks have failed.

[enigma]

demogod said:

PNU has already said that there is not going to be any power sharing. So, what are we waiting for, the talks have failed.

Demo...be the big man. Moments like this call for extra-ordinary men to step forward. Talks wont fail and real power-sharing will be the result. As it is power is in the hands of ODM because parliament is the supreme law making body and ODM has a strong presence there (hung parliament though it is). If Raila gets control of a representative government (executive PM) as am sure he will, then we might get THE CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN (I stand ready to answer charges of plagiarism) minus Majimbo of course.

[mank]

Well, a benefit of the doubt is worthwhile ... what Watengula says here does not seem such nonsense as you guys are portraying it to be. To him ODM should suggest that, if it is in the interest of the constitution that his team is not signing the deal that is on the table, then the talks could break for a day, during which time parliament repeals the relevant part of the constitution to accommodate the deal that is on the table. If PNU refuses this, then the heckling may be warranted. At this stage it does not seem warranted.

[adongo23456]

At the end of the day the Wetangulas and even Martha Karua don't matter. Kibaki and Michuki plus the cabal of unelected PNU power brokers will make the call. It seems to me from the events of the weekend that they will never accept the power sharing formula on the table today. As I have said before they invested heavily to get Kibaki back including the clumsy rigging. They keep asking themselves, what do we get from all that? And to imagine that Raila Odinga and by extension the ODM will be in charge of government is unthinkable to them.

They may relent a few notches down as long as Kibaki is still Head of State and Head of government even if some micky mouse PM is created and even called "executive" in name only. My guess is that the Raila team will not accept much less of what is on the table.

I think PNU is going to ask for an adjournment of the talks for a week or two to sort things out - read buy more time. Once Raila and the ODM rejects that adjournment, the talks will be officially over.

Both groups do not have a clearly worked out plan B. Kibaki's plan B is to go with the army but even that is quite problematic given the international pressure already existing. A military regime will apart from bankrupting the economy probably lead to the break up of the armed forces on ethnic alliances and could haunt the country for decades. Also the armed forces may come in friendly to Kibaki, round up opposition leaders, declare martial law and get a semblance of order as other groups forment but the armed forces once they taste power will take it for themselves. So that is a crisis in itself.

The irony is that a military coup may first be recieved by Kenyans as a blessing. The coup plotters could even be seen as heroes and saviours even by both sides. They will come preaching salvation, a return to democracy in three years etc, but we have heard that before.

Personally I don't see Kibaki running the government after the talks fail. He is too damaged and has such little authority nationally and internationally to go anywhere. I could be wrong. In the last week it was reported they are recruiting 10,000 police officers from the NYS. Obviously we know where those folks are headed. There has been massive movement and transfer of police in the troublesome provinces of Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western. This tells me Kibaki is going to give it a shot with kifua and when that fails he will hand it over to the armed forces.

www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143982081&cid=159

Also don't foget that a section of the Mungiki leaders are itching for full fledged revenge activities. A state of mayhem will suit them perfectly. Just this weekend they were about to send a contingent of 200 mungiki thugs to RV. May be they sent some already.

Bottom line is that even as the talks are going on, there are multiple preparations that should tell us the powers that be are getting ready for failed talks after they sabotage it. We would be foolish to ignore those preparations.

On the other hand the ODM too does not have plan B. Of course chances are the nation will be engulfed in violence and chaos after the talks are officially dead, but chaos alone will solve nothing. Once the ODM declares their own government they will be open to arrest for treason. The consequences of their arrest are rather obvious. It will be an official declaration of war by Kibaki against the ODM fraternity. Where that leads is anybody's guess.

Over time if the talks are dead as they may very well be in a few days, different groups will emerge, mostly armed, which are not associated with ODM. They may look up to the ODM crew most likely in jail as their spiritual and political leaders, but they will not be answerable to them. Where all these takes the country is hard to figure out.

In a nutshell, it seems to me that PNU hardliners are willing to gamble with the future of the country. The ODM to their credit have earned the support of many Kenyans and the international community with their flexibility and clear proposals. How that will benefit them and their supporters in the event of a looming showdown only time will tell but it something they will look back to with a great sense of pride.

In the next 24 hours, Kibaki and the Wanjuis, the Njoroges and Michukis have to think long and hard. The choices they make now may determine the future of the country for decades to come. The record those dudes have running the affairs of the nation does not inspire a lot of confidence in me that they will make the right decision now. They have a lot lo lose in both directions and I think the decisions they make will be determined by their understanding of those loses and how to minimise them as opposed to what is good for Kenya. They don't have a lot of time.

adongo

[deyiengs]

Yes folks,
I told you. News just in, THE TALKS WOBBLE!
Kibaki has REJECTED POWER SHARING

[politicalmaniac]

I am not suprised
Now what then? R said chaos will follow.
Will Annan and Machel and Mkapa be in NBI?