Annan talks at standstill

[kingpin]

Kenyan Talks At Standstill as Annan to Meet Rivals

By REUTERS
Published: February 25, 2008
Filed at 8:23 a.m. ET

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Talks to end Kenya's political crisis reached a standstill on Monday and negotiators from both sides said President Mwai Kibaki and rival Raila Odinga must now make the hard decisions on sharing power themselves.

Negotiating teams met early on Monday to try to finalize agreement on ending post-election turmoil that has left at least 1,000 dead before an opposition deadline to resume street protests expires on Wednesday.

The government has agreed in principle to create a prime minister's seat demanded by the opposition, but the parties are split on the premier's powers, sharing of ministries and the possibility of a new election if the coalition collapses.

By early afternoon, both sides said they were unable to agree and had to push the decisions up to their bosses through mediator Kofi Annan, the former U.N. secretary general.

"We have isolated a number of items that require our chairman's consultations with our principals," government negotiator Mutula Kilonzo told reporters.

Opposition negotiator William Ruto said it was time Kibaki and Odinga "rolled in their influence."

"On many of the issues that are outstanding, we are unable to agree, so they have been referred to the principals in the hope that they enjoy greater leverage and can be able to thrash out those issues," Ruto told reporters.

Annan confirmed the decision.

The crisis over Kibaki's disputed re-election, the worst since independence in 1963, has hurt Kenya's image as a stable democracy and prosperous trade and tourism hub.

It has laid bare rifts over land, wealth and tribes that were born under British colonial rule and since exacerbated by politicians.

In the hope of addressing the long-held grievances and improving Kenya's institutions, revising Kenya's 45-year-old constitution has come to the fore.

Both sides have agreed on the need for changes to the constitution, which gives immense powers to the president and which analysts say contributes to a divisive winner-take-all mentality at election time.

Annan wants an immediate political settlement before deeper negotiations over the constitution, with rights groups warning that ethnic militias are regrouping ahead of the renewed protest threat.

Odinga accuses Kibaki of rigging the December 27 poll and wants a powerful premier's post and a 50-50 split in the cabinet.

Kibaki says he won fairly and accuses the opposition of instigating riots and ethnic violence instead of following Kenya's legal avenues to challenge an election. He wants any changes to be made under Kenya's current constitution.

Most of Kenya's 36 million people want a quick end to the two-month-old crisis, which many see as a battle between wealthy political elites being fought at their expense.

(Additional reporting by Wangui Kanina; Writing by Bryson Hull; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)

[kingpin]

Kenya peace talks reach impasse

The opposition say they will renew protests if talks fail
Talks aimed at ending the political crisis in Kenya have stalled, forcing mediator Kofi Annan to intervene.
He is to seek the input of President Mwai Kibaki and rival Raila Odinga in an attempt to salvage the process.

Negotiators from Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement and the government disagree on the powers to be granted to a proposed new post of prime minister.

Police have increased their estimate of the death toll of post-election clashes and now say at least 1,500 have died.

Another 300,000 others were displaced in the violence following the 27 December poll.

The opposition ODM has threatened to relaunch mass protests on Wednesday if a political deal is not reached, while a lawyers' group says it wants to see a resolution by the end of the week.

Leverage

Mr Odinga, who insists victory was stolen from him, arrived at the venue of talks and left after a brief meeting with Mr Annan.


"We have isolated a number of issues which now require our chairman to consult with the principals," Mutula Kilonzo, a representative of the government, told reporters.

Both parties walked away from the venue of the talks after new proposals were raised, sources told the BBC.

"On many of the issues that are outstanding, we are unable to agree, so they have been referred to the principals in the hope that they enjoy greater leverage and can be able to thrash out those issues," said William Ruto, of the ODM.

Power-sharing

The ODM and government negotiators were due to fine-tune an agreement that would usher in a new power-sharing arrangement.

The incoming African Union commission chairman, Jean Ping, who held talks with President Kibaki and Mr Annan, hinted last week that a deal would be announced early this week.

Both parties have agreed in principle on the creation of a prime minister's position, which would be taken by Mr Odinga.

As well as how to divide powers between a prime minister and a president, they are also split on sharing on cabinet positions and the possibility of a new election if the coalition collapses.

'Impatient'

Pressure is mounting on both Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) and the ODM to agree to a power-sharing settlement that would end the political crisis.

"We share the impatience on the expectations of the outcome of the Annan-led talks. We would like to see a consensus reached between the two parties by the end of the week," said Tom Ojienda, president of the influential East African Law Society.

But some pro-government leaders have cautioned the government against rushing for a quick-fix deal, with some pushing for the final agreement to be put to a referendum for public endorsement.

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7263359.stm

[mzee]

As had been predicted, we are going nowhere for a very long time, Annan or no Annan.
PANU heardliners will not let the talks succeed. Lets just say that we have a war in our hands. I mean real war with blood running all over the place.

[politicalmaniac]

Fredrick Douglas

"Power concedes nothing without a demand.
It never did, and it never will".

Its obvious that kegs, cannot, one on one with R, make a decision. His modus operandi is playing hide and seek behind proxies. He "leads" from behind.

Here is what ODM says as per todays EA standard

ODM, it is understood, wants to get word from President Kibaki through Annan on whether through his negotiating team, he was still committed to the talks or not.

IOW, ODM is not sure of Kegs true motives or intents!!

What a coward, keguoya

[gulavi]

From the Word go they were pushed to the negotiation table knowing that it was just another game. Same as the MOU with LDP, they will cheat their way through. Its the High time Raila and co see the truth in their face. they are dealing with highly committed thieves and liars with no iota of the word known as shame, in suits, having gone to school and became rich of their theft. This folks I'm afraid are gonna die with many. Unfortunately the only Language they understand is the same as other dictators, Zinc.
Its unfortunate for them if they take kenya through that route, People have learnt simple dirty wars of way side bombs and katyusha, simple to manufacture with readily available material and extremely effective to target the crooks themselves. I simply hope they don't take us that route but I still think they are totally committed to Keep power, come rain or shine, they are not giving away the loot.

The struggle continues

Ongalo Makokha

[gulavi]

Annan threatens to leave Kenya talks
Annan: Kenya factions 'not capable' of agreement

edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/02/25/kenya.talks/index.html

Ongalo Makokha

[adongo23456]

May be Kibaki and the PNU is waiting for this other Kofi Annan to grow up and finish the talks

Baby Kofi Annan with its mother nearly a month after it was born at the Ol Choro Oirogua Conservancy in the Masai Mara Game Reserve. The baby rhino was named after the former UN Secretary-General, Dr Kofi Annan.

[gulavi]

Maybe a propaganda or some truth in it. I hope the Americans are not laying siege of my country. What a shame Kibaki is putting us through!! Americans?? IIsh


--Forwarded Message Attachment--
Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2008 07:23:47 +0000
From: [e-mail]
Subject: KENYA: Majimbo is here!!!
To: [e-mail]

Military projection on Kenya is at hand! Strategy and logistics are in force!

The battle to save the Great Lake region from collapsing under the corrupt Mt Kenya Mafia’s illegitimate Kibaki government rule, is taking a new twist and Kofi Annan will soon call it quits as the military option takes natural cause.

The main battle will be to have Kenya divided into Jimbos whereas the Coastal Jimbo will be under the US and British Marines units to guard the main port of entry from the looming economic and humanitarian crisis being felt in DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda Northern Tanzania and Sudan.

While Western Kenya ( Rift Valley, Western, Nyanza ) Jimbos shall be manned by a UN peacekeeping force under the command of Rt UN Major Gen. Opande together with experienced contigents of the Kenyan military UN peacekeeping veterans still in service who worked with him in Liberia/Kosovo/Angola.

The regional leaders have agreed to have Major General Paul Kagame supervise the military action if the talks fails, while all the immediate neighbors (Tanzania and Uganda) will provide security escort to all the goods from Mombasa to the Great Lake region countries.

The enforcement of a sanction against Kenya will force Kibaki and his cronies, Kalonzo included, to accept Bomas Draft or face full wrath similar to what the late Saddam of Iraq was subjected to.

It is now advisable that all other community who are pro-ODM-Majimbo government to immediately find the way to their ancestral land following the major onslaught genocide being planed by the Mungiki militias who now make up 70% of Police/GSU force. Their will be no guarantee for their security in Central Province, the only safe haven is in ancestral homes.

Mr Kalonzo is campaigning to undo the said plan by persuading the international community to have them have Kibaki step down for him to lead the country in order to avert chaos, the proposal which has been rejected and dismissed as selfishness, because it is Raila and ODM who have been mandated by Kenyans to lead. Therefore, Mr Kalonzo is being described as one who lacks intelligence and is corrupt. Mr Kalonzo is a traitor and is now working around the clock to betray Kibaki and the Mt Kenya Mafia internationally.

This move is in the last stages and will be implemented immediately when the Kofi Annan mediation fails next week. (unedited)

Rev Okoth Otura,
President/Founder,
Christian Democratic Movement of Kenya-(CDMK) &
East Africa Christians Transformation Mission Fellowship-(EACTMF)
CANADA
www.cdmk.org

[deyiengs]

Annan should have woken up and smelt the coffee long time ago. What happened to those encouraging phrases he used to give on how 'good progress' were being made in the talks? This was an open fact that kibaki was not going to give an inch of power. Think about this: Let's say ODM decides to let him stay as an imperial president (God forbid!) and that he was to appoint ODM MPs to cabinet positions. He won't even let them come up with their own list of appointees! For him, he must appoint whoever he feels "can work with him" In other words, Raila cannot have a say in whoever to be appointed. WTF? I don't know about anyone's opinion, but this is just clear that ODM is really wasting time. I've never seen such banditry! It's stinking crazy and really annoying. We surely have a beast in statehouse.

Looks like Annan has just realized this. He has come to his senses that he should have just kept off in the first place. That he should have, say, gone to a vacation with his wife instead of getting into this mess. Now we can hear words like this coming off his aide: "He has suspended a lot of important activities to help Kenya" He sure did. When I could hear him say "progress is being made" something kept telling me that he would regret ever saying such words. I believe he's really regretting. He has just come to his senses, after a whole month. The brighter side though is that his coming to Kenya has helped the international community know exactly what we are dealing with as a ‘government’. I’m just feeling so sorry for a man with such great credentials to be ridiculed the way he’s been. It’s so sad.

What I know

• Kibaki desperately wants absolute power.
  
• Kibaki will never, I repeat NEVER share power
  
• kibaki has a secret agenda, a bad one. He’s one guy who doesn’t care. His agenda will be to rob Kenya untill nothing is left.
  
• Kibaki won’t last on his stolen presidency.
  
• Raila is the PORK and must get REAL power. Keyword: MUST.
  
• Kenyans are in trouble.
  
  

What I don’t know

• When kibaki will vacate statehouse(although I feel it may be sooner than anyone expects and ofcourse, he’s not going to hand it over)
  
• How Raila will finally descend to power.
  
  

Time will tell…

[deyiengs]

Folks, I’m just happy this thing is going this way. ODM have given what they can. They were robbed, caught the thief red-handed, but still pleaded with them to at least, share. But as we’ve seen the thieves can’t just share. I’ve just remembered one methali we once used to play around with when we were in primary schools: Mtaka yote, hukosa yote

[JAHAATWACH]

What Annan and ODM seems to ignore if not oblivious of is that there is the Kalonzo factor in this mediation process.

Kibaki would have given in long time ago were it not for the mysterious MoU with Kalonzo traced to some secret meeting at Nakuru State Hse last year attended by Kibaki,Moi and MUTULA KILONZO.

Kenyans must know that there is a third principal in this mediation process,an adjunct one albeit in the name of Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka.

Kalonzo or ODM-K if you like is represented by MUTULA and just like Raila and Kibaki, he also get first hand briefing and debrief the ODM-K's representative.Remember he is officially the leader of the government delegation in the post-election crisis talks.

There are striking similarities between what is happening now in Serena and the energy-sapping, high-octane, see-saw political power games that Kalonzo engaged Raila & Co last year.

Kalonzo sees Annan team as bent on presiding over his political burial at a time when he is at the apogee of his career and whats more, his pending political demise is at behest of Raila, the man he has unfinished business with.

What he has done to Daniel Maanzo,Chepkonga and Aluga and Dr Julia Ojiambo is prooof positive of his capability. One reason why the likes of Martha Karua, Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti should watch out.

All I am saying is that its high time ODM and Annan team guard itself against the akili-na damu machinations of this politically destructive man.


ODM must take advantage of the swirling anti-Kalonzo storm in Ukambani and Ford-K to rout out his influence in the body politics and more importantly attain the broad-based national political alliance to chart a new path for Kenya.

[adongo23456]

deyiengs

Kibaki cannot pull it off. A few days ago I thought they have the guts to go for the whole thing. They don't. The forces aligned against Kibaki and his junta are too much for him to handle. Kibaki would have the initial advantage with arms and uniformed forces etc but it would only be a matter of time before that balance is offset.

I think these Kibaki fellas actually thought they could intimidate the ODM and bribe them with offers. They met something else.

I like the decision by Kofi Annan to put the final decision on Kibaki and Raila. The ODM has already made enough concessions, anything more and the voters will tell them off.

What a devious man this Kibaki fella is. Well he got what he never bargained for. He is in for the fight of his life.

Jahat


I agree that Kalonzo is part of the problem. Remember he only got the V.P spot for himself. His Ukambani crew have nothing to speak of. With a 50:50 power deal, Kalonzo has to fight for crumbs with Kanu, Ford K, Narc K etc. It doesn't look good for him. Also if he loses his Leader of Government Business gig in parliament he is as good as dead.

At the end of the day, when the shit hits the roof, Kalonzo is not going to help Kibaki. That is what Kibaki has to deal with. Apparently Kalonzo promised to settle some of the displaced people in Ukambani in exchange for the V.P slot.

Kalonzo made a collosal blunder propping up Kibaki. Kalonzo should be at the table now as ODM K representing the close to 1 million people who voted for him. Instead he has to hang on to PNU and try sabotaging the talks for himself and the junta he supports.

Ultimately Kibaki has to make the decision and the whole world is watching and waiting. I suspect they are going to try talking to Raila directly and try to swindle some of the gains made at the talks. Luckily for Raila he knows exactly the kind of people they dealing with. Their last hope is to talk to Raila and Kenyans are watching Raila's every move too. No more MoU stuff.



adongo

[JAHAATWACH]

Adongo,

I cant agree more.

I find it ironic that ambitious people like Martha Karua are so short-sighted that they cant see the wisdom of a powerful premier in post-Kibaki kenya.

But as some one once said, you cant stop an idea whose time has come.

[politicalmaniac]

Wow
So we brace for chaos and insanity.
Courtesy of PNU

Its just stupyfying, to watch gen kegs de othaya dig in. Is he playing a game to take us to the brink and then stop just as we are entering the abyss? Or is he serious, he wants to hang on come what may? I think he should know by now that wont happen, that the people have amuaad to fight and resist?

I dont think Annan made a mistake.
We had no way of confirming that kegs indeed would not give in, untill we went through the whole nine yards, which turned out to be a charade.

Now we know.
Let the people now take isues into their own hands.

The only folks who can put an end to this suicidal PNU moves are the Kikiyu masses. They alone can tell off kegs.

[adongo23456]

PM

My thinking is that Kibaki is between a rock and a hard place. If he kills the talks he knows what is coming and while I suspect Kibaki and his coup plotters would not give a hoot what that means for Kenyans as long as they are safe at State House I think the international implications and possible trade embargoes must be worrying them to death.

The good thing is the whole world has come face to face with the deviousness of Kibaki. The pretended gentleman persona is gone with the wind.

I think the feeling among Kenyans is that they are just tired of the talks. They want a conclusion now. I think Kibaki is going to be under a lot of pressure. I think they are going to really try arm twisting Raila using everything they have. It was crazy to see they drafted the so called Establishment of Prime Minister's Act 2008 and put in total junk. That is what they did all along during the Bomas negotiations. They say one thing during the day and cook something else at night.

The ODM is in a very comfortable position. They have negotiated with integrity and honesty. They have conceded where they had to.

Now is all up to Raila as the ODM leader to stand his ground, refuse any further merry go around and if Kibaki wants to govern by force he can go ahead.

I am still optimistic but I would be outraged if Raila and the ODM gave in even an inch from where they are. These PNU bullies have to face the music. They are out of options.. The one option they have guarantees them nothing except a long miserable confrontation with the population and eventual demise of Kibaki.

adongo

[politicalmaniac]

AO
PNU is rolling the dice.
They know folks are fatigued of the wait and its attendant uncertainty. But as some one pointed out, being an incumbent in this scenario is 8/9the of the win bagged already.

What it seems they want to do is pull a razzle dazzle and project that they actually gave ODM something substantial for the sake of peace but ODM were greedy. They are desperate to find a spin that would work while giving up nothing.

Yes R should stand his ground. There is no way ODMers will ever give him the respect they have for him if he caves in to a settlement that is not magnanimous and reflective of what occurred on Dec 30th, and goes further to embark on correcting the aberration.

Its obvious that the PNU want to wear down everyone, more so Annans team so he may give up and leave. That also is unlikely because if Annan leaves then for sure PNU will ride rough shod over the others and just make the country ungovernable again, and he may then have to come back, and that not an attractive option.

So lets wait and see how Thursday goes.

[enigma]

deyiengs said:

Annan should have woken up and smelt the coffee long time ago. What happened to those encouraging phrases he used to give on how 'good progress' were being made in the talks? This was an open fact that kibaki was not going to give an inch of power. Think about this: Let's say ODM decides to let him stay as an imperial president (God forbid!) and that he was to appoint ODM MPs to cabinet positions. He won't even let them come up with their own list of appointees! For him, he must appoint whoever he feels "can work with him" In other words, Raila cannot have a say in whoever to be appointed. WTF? I don't know about anyone's opinion, but this is just clear that ODM is really wasting time. I've never seen such banditry! It's stinking crazy and really annoying. We surely have a beast in statehouse.

Looks like Annan has just realized this. He has come to his senses that he should have just kept off in the first place. That he should have, say, gone to a vacation with his wife instead of getting into this mess. Now we can hear words like this coming off his aide: "He has suspended a lot of important activities to help Kenya" He sure did. When I could hear him say "progress is being made" something kept telling me that he would regret ever saying such words. I believe he's really regretting. He has just come to his senses, after a whole month. The brighter side though is that his coming to Kenya has helped the international community know exactly what we are dealing with as a ‘government’. I’m just feeling so sorry for a man with such great credentials to be ridiculed the way he’s been. It’s so sad.

What I know

• Kibaki desperately wants absolute power.
  
• Kibaki will never, I repeat NEVER share power
  
• kibaki has a secret agenda, a bad one. He’s one guy who doesn’t care. His agenda will be to rob Kenya untill nothing is left.
  
• Kibaki won’t last on his stolen presidency.
  
• Raila is the PORK and must get REAL power. Keyword: MUST.
  
• Kenyans are in trouble.
  
  

What I don’t know

• When kibaki will vacate statehouse(although I feel it may be sooner than anyone expects and ofcourse, he’s not going to hand it over)
  
• How Raila will finally descend to power.
  
  

Time will tell…

I thought that Annan shouldnt have allowed the negotiators long weekends off (thursday to monday). It should have been marathon sessions with an hour or two to meet family everyday. Keep them confined to Serena until a deal is reached. Because they seemed to agree on issues and then backtrack come monday morning. No meeting the principals except via tele/videoconference. But anyway, this is Kenya and people cant even agree to disagree. What now for the suffering masses?

[enigma]

eastandard.net/politicalbarometer/

[theadr]

Seems like my hope has been surely punctured. Only thing left is to agree to the PM role as outlined by kibaki ... and force kibaki to be PM, tinga President.

The negotiations are all but over. Let the WAR begin, sasa.

[eosir]

"Talks at a standstill".....is a serious understatement, in my view!

These Annan-led talks were never meant to achieve anything in the first place. All Kibaki and hic coterie of hardliners wanted was for a ceasefire of sorts to break out across the country so that they have time to reorganize the instruments of force! This phase is now complete: RV and Nyanza have been purged of most, if not all, Kale and Luo policemen and several army units have been deployed to these provinces and parts of Western. In addition, those 'light' arms from China have been received and are ready for use.

Anna will soon leave a very disappointed man! He seems to have aged a bit since he landed in this troubled land. This is just how sad it is!

[kingpin]

Kenya crisis talks resume under protest threat
Tue 26 Feb 2008, 10:50 GMT

By Duncan Miriri and Giles Elgood

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A new round of talks to end Kenya's political crisis started on Tuesday with no clear sign of an agreement on power-sharing and the opposition threatening to resume nationwide protests.

The talks being mediated by former U.N. chief Kofi Annan had come to a standstill on Monday with both sides saying President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga needed to step in to break the deadlock.

Both leaders have come under international and domestic pressure to compromise over Kibaki's disputed re-election in a December 27 vote, an event that sparked ethnic violence in which 1,000 people were killed and 300,000 forced to flee their homes.Annan met Kibaki and Odinga separately on Monday night but negotiators could not say whether the two leaders were any closer to a deal.

"I think there is some agreement on some (issues) and not on others but we are still talking," Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula said after the two sides broke for lunch.Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete was due to arrive on Wednesday in his capacity as African Union chairman to talk with Odinga, Annan and Kibaki.Mediator Annan, the former U.N. secretary-general, is ready to leave Kenya if there is no progress, according to a source close to the talks.

The opposition has said it will stage nationwide protests on Thursday if there is no deal. Police had no comment on whether they would permit the demonstrations.Earlier protests descended into riots and looting that were met with a deadly police response, while simultaneous rounds of ethnic killings and revenge attacks took place in different parts of the east African country.The bloodshed damaged Kenya's reputation as a prosperous trade and tourism hub and a haven of stability in a region riven by violence.

'MILITARY TRAINING'

Against this background of violence, the government has agreed in principle to create a prime minister's seat demanded by the opposition.But the parties are split on the premier's powers, sharing of ministries and the possibility of a new election if the coalition collapses.

Police on Monday arrested at least 200 youths said to be undergoing military training at a farm owned by a former legislator, near the clash-hit Mt. Elgon area, local media reported.The men, found in military uniforms, said they were from areas of western Kenya hit by post-election violence and were being trained to protect their people, the Standard newspaper reported. A police spokesman gave no immediate comment.A Kenyan non-governmental organisation gave a partial breakdown of the post-election death toll in a statement published in newspapers on Tuesday, urging that the peace talks should "not immunise any perpetrator from criminal liability."

"Because many bodies have been buried ... or disposed of in unconventional ways, it can be assumed that the number of deaths arising from the post-election violence is higher than the estimated 1,000," the Independent Medico-Legal Unit said.It said that out of 80 post-mortems it conducted on victims, 43 percent had died from gunshots and 57 percent from injuries inflicted by crude weapons.

africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnBAN622858.html

[adongo23456]

eosir said:

"Talks at a standstill".....is a serious understatement, in my view!

These Annan-led talks were never meant to achieve anything in the first place. All Kibaki and hic coterie of hardliners wanted was for a ceasefire of sorts to break out across the country so that they have time to reorganize the instruments of force! This phase is now complete: RV and Nyanza have been purged of most, if not all, Kale and Luo policemen and several army units have been deployed to these provinces and parts of Western. In addition, those 'light' arms from China have been received and are ready for use.

Anna will soon leave a very disappointed man! He seems to have aged a bit since he landed in this troubled land. This is just how sad it is!

Jakojwaya

The trouble with Kibaki's option to rely on force and violence to run the country is that those things have their own dynamics. Nobody is going to have the monopoly on force in Kenya. There are endless reports of all sorts of training going on. It is as if for the most part Kenyans are gearing for war even as they still seem to hope this Annan thing will work.

The scary thing is that what we are hearing about are community based militias. Mungiki is training and arming and joining the police force and the military. The other militias are not sitting down waiting for them with folded arms. A section of the political Mungiki leadership are so enraged with the events in Rift Valley they have vowed for revenge and do not want a political solution because they think with their accomodation in the state apparatus they can give the Kalenjins a pay back and stick it to the Luos.

The NSIS knows what is going on and of course they have their Mungiki branch in there as well.

So the crazy thing about what is going on in Kenya is that everybody is preparing for battle even as they talk peace and it is very much on ethnic lines. I am a little puzzled that people don't seem to be questioning and trying to supress an obvious prepapration for an ethnic war. Even in Rwanda they didn't prepare for this long. The whole mess took three months. Kenyans are preparing for an ethnic war that could last for years. And they are doing it in broad daylight as if it is some kind of sport. It should be frightening to every citizen, but it is as if each community feels it is the other one who is going to suffer.

The Gikuyu community feel they were taken by surprise and now with the help of the state they can't wait to have their boys carry out the revenge. The Kalenjins feel very confident after the events of post election mayhem in Rift Valley.

The Luos in Nyanza will have their hands full with the police but people who know will tell you the police stations in the interior are practically useless, they will have to station army platoons over there. The Luos have nobody to fight in their heartlands just as the Mungiki's have nobody to fight in their heartland after all the cleansing has been done. So I guess the Luos will have to duke it out with the police in Nyanza.

The Luo/Kikuyu war will have to be in Nairobi where I think they may graduate from machetes and beheadings to guns and home made bombs.

Many people are waiting to wreck the transport network within weeks of renewed confrontations. Meanwhile the Maasais, the Pokots are just as ready to protect their communities and take advantage of a general war situation to further their interests for land and livestock.

My point here is when one looks at the configuration and alignment of forces it is inconcievable to me that Kibaki would just want to walk into that quagmire. As we know with pent up tribal hatred that we have seen, these confrontattions are going to take a very vicious form. That is what was happening before the Annan talks. People were being pulled out of matatus and just hacked in broad daylight in front of TV cameras.

This is why I am optimistic that these folks may have to dig out for a solution. In a militarized scenario Kibaki will have the shock and awe effect in the first month or so but for that very same reason the communities under attack will redouble their efforts and it will be downhill from their on.

The ODM has the same dilemma. They have no control and no say on what the militias can and will do. The ODM is not a military group and will not be one. So even for the ODM a peaceful settlement is way better than the alternative

From what we have seen in Mt. Elgon and Kerusoi armed groups love the power the guns give them they will hardly ever surrender those guns. Anybody who has handled a gun will tell you there is nothing more powerful than having a gun in your hand. It will make grown ups weep infront of you begging for mercy. That is why they love them. Once they start using them and seeing the impact, they are not going to give them up easily. It becomes their bread and butter.

These are folks operating in just a small patches of forrest, now if we are going to have the entire Kenyan forrests infiltrated with warriors and armed groups we are all in big trouble.

So as much as I know there are forces headquatered at State House who really want this thing to go to the next level I think they will be insane not to seriously evaluate what that means.

As I have said the war in Kenya is going to be primarily about land. That is what is at the core of the problem. To me this means it is the big landowners who have the greatest odds against them. Right now their lands are safe. It is the small Kiukuyu land owner in Rift Valley who lost most of what they owned.

So I know the big hitters with those thousands of acres of land in Rift Valley, really have to think twice and as we know they have influence, heck they own State House. This election was stolen for them. How ironical would lit be if due to that theft they end up losing what they value the most, their ill gotten pieces of land. Let's see if State House is more important to them than their land and other properties.

Annan has now made it clear, he will leave if things are not working. That could be in a matter of days. These people have their work cut out for them. Annan could still pull this thing off. Once it doesn't work, those of us living outside the country will have to start thinking of our relatives down there. Everybody will pay a price.

Let us also not forget that there is an alternative for a well organized mass peaceful movement which the ODM is very capable of building. The problem is that the state is going to antagonize the population towards a militarized confrontotation. The ODM as a registered political party in the country has to keep to peaceful mass actions and work with other groups with a long tradition in this line of battle. At the end of the day there are going to be multiple fronts as Kenyans from all walks of life join the battle to remove the illegal Kibaki regime. Not everyone is looking for a machete or an AK 47. There are many ways to fight for the freedom of the country. Everybody will chip in.



adongo

[denno]

Rice talks tough again...
news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080226/wl_nm/kenya_crisis_dc_7

[enigma]

denno said:

Rice talks tough again...
news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080226/wl_nm/kenya_crisis_dc_7

There is already a humanitarian crisis in Kenya. I think America should act now, if their intended action is for the benefit of ordinary Kenyans. If however it is meant to benefit the two leaders, then their vacillation is understandable. Otherwise they should forever hold their peace and let things go where they are destined to go so that those Kenyans who believe in violence and mass action can machete their way into ''prosperity''.

[JAHAATWACH]

There is a popular saying in Kisumu city that ka iyudo ka ngato ketho gire, to konye ketho meaning the best you can do to a fellow on a self-destruct mode is to gladly aide his ruin.


ODM demonstrated that they were in the talks for the love of Kenya but as our very own Gakungu pointed out in this aptly titled thread jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1202645499&page=1, it was never going to be.