Last poll shows Orange leading by far

[aeichener]

After the Steadman poll, the Orange camp had commissioned a new, more detailed poll. It was conducted by researchers from the University of Nairobi from October 24-27. And it shows the "No" camp leading by 63 % against 34 %.

See here the summary and here the detailed results.

What makes me concerned is the visible extreme tribalization, when looking at the detailed results :-(.

Alexander

[kamalet]

Certainly interesting statistics. I have recently seen two other polls from the government and the yes secretariat that are equally subjective as this one! I did warn my friends at the Yes secretariat that such polls initiated by themselves can create a false sense of security that they are winning whilst it may not be correct. The government one was perhaps more balanced, giving the Yes group a 2% lead with 5% error margin. Only problem I had was the suggestion that in some areas they were exagerating the number of votes they would get - like the silly idea that Luo Nyanza (wherever that is!!!) they would get 100,000 votes and I thought that was certainly wrong!

From this coming weekend, the vote willbe decided on not what the draft says or which politician you support - but who can get as many people as possible to the polling stations on Monday 21st!

[aeichener]

kamalet said:

that such polls initiated by themselves can create a false sense of security that they are winning whilst it may not be correct.

I think that this is a blunder which both camps must avoid.

Rather than rallying those who are already decided, or defying those who will not change their opinions anyhow, the two camps should instead strive to mobilize as many people as possibly to actually exercise their right to vote, and should motivate those who might otherwise abstain.

If grandmother is sick and homebound, find volunteers to carry her to the polling station; is mzee is blind and stays in the compound, find a boy to guide him there. If the villagers of so-and-so feel that it does not make a difference regardless how they vote, convince them that it does, this time.

Alexander