Monster Rallies, Salacious Gossip....

[Onyango Oloo]

FIRST DRAFT COMPLETELY UNEDITED...Populist Rallies,

Monster Rallies, Salacious Gossip, Unscientific Polls and Post-Referendum Blues: Onyango Oloo's Immediate Post Rally Reflections, Saturday, November 19th, 2005...

1.0.Watching Television at the Kenyan Coast…

It is about twenty minutes to six. Here I am a spitting distance from the Nyali bridge frying in the steaming humidity of my adopted home town of Mombasa. Having traveled overnight from the tension packed city of Nairobi- with a brief involuntary stop over somewhere in the vicinity of Mtito Andei- we arrived here sligthly after breakfast time. As we were leaving Nairobi we noticed we were among tens of thousands of throngs who took off to their ancestral home to take advantange of the once in a lifetime referendum long weekend. We were lucky to get a bus I kid you not- Mash was full as were dozens of other country and cross-country buses. The Coast Bus company saw a windfall in one of the most politicaly charged weekends in Kenya’s contemporary history and put extra buses on the road- overlooking to fine tune the particular bus we were on and that is how we ended up with a broken fan belt in the middle of nowhere. Later on, I gathered that commuters to Kitui had to fork out an extra two hundred shillings as unscrupulous public service vehicle operators doubled the normal fare to that Orange region.

After finishing with the preliminaries of checking in at a comfy, but fairly cheap bed and breakfast somewhere on the island both of us broke up temporarily to catch up with our respective siblings, cousins and other family members- pledging to reconnect later in the day for some nyamchoms and what not.

Having done that, I decided to follow the monster Nairobi rallies via some installed in Mombasa satellite television channels. With my trusty channel flipper I zipped and zoomed back and forth through all of Kenya’s grand total of five television channels. For my purposes I stuck to 60% of the channels- NTV, KBC-1 and KTN.

For those Kenyans who have made their homes in North America, Europe and elswhere for decades(like the scribe keyboarding these lines) it is often startling to witness the high quality of modern Kenyan broadcasting-something that Kenyan based compatriots must be extremely amused about- even though some of them prefer retreads of tepid has been soap operas featuring the expired starlets and ham actors of the idiot box.

This is an informal report of what Onyango Oloo saw on live Kenyan television after a marathon runinga ogling session running into multiple hours:

Earlier in the day I was more than taken aback when I watched Prof. Wangari Maathai being interviewed on KBC’s breakfast show. The Nobel laureate and world famous environmentalist blithely and brazenly endorsed the proposed shipment of Kenya’s wild animals to Thai exotic zoos where these animals will be extras in an ongoing freak show for Thai’s rich and famous. She waffled when she was put on the spot about why she, a holder of the peace prize had not been more forceful in condemning referendum linked violence and continued to spout the same middle of the road fruit salad stance on the yes and no campaign.

Later on I was thrilled to see some of my younger heroes and sheroes of the country’s civil society sector on various panels in all three of the channels. I am talking about Youth Agenda Kepta Ombati ( who I ran into at the MS Denmark/Kenya Social Forum at the Nairobi Panafric Hotel a few days ago); NCEC’s Orina Nyamwamu; Citizen Assembly’s Suba Churchill; private governance and human rights consult Atsango Chesoni; National Commission for Human Rights head honcho Maina Kiai; senior editor Kwamchetsi Makokha injecting much needed critical perspective, political intelligence and fresh gusts of oxygen to the fractious Orange/Banana stand offs. Former student activist and Safina foot soldier Kabando wa Kabando cut a sad and sorry figure as he went to bat for Kiraitu’s “government project”.

If there was one star who stood out from the above constellation it was the deep thinking Ms. Atsango Chesoni- she was actually on two different channels: a part of the Kenyan Agenda show( is that the real name?) show on KBC and almost simultaneously, one of the two talking heads- along with Maina Kiai interlocuting with KTN host Michael Oyier about the live coverage of the Nyayo Stadium and Uhuru Park shows of strength ahead of Monday’s nationwide ballot exercise. By reminding Kenyans of the consultative process that got derailed soon after Bomas she was able to locate the ongoing political wrangling in the mainstream in some analytical context. Maina Kiai for his part drew on his direct experience as one of the activist veterans of the change the constitution reform movement to bolster Atsango’s on the mark observations. They both exhibited more than a little disdain for what they kept referring to as the “political class”.

As I indicated recently in my rejoinder to Prof. Makau wa Mutua:

…what is this nebulous animal called the "political class"?

Speaking as a Marxist-Leninist, I do not recognize this strange appellation.

Is there any imputation that there is a certain stratum in Kenyan society whose sole pregorative is "politics"?

Who are the members of this class?

When he wrote his opinion piece, Prof. Makau wa Mutua was intervening in an overtly political manner.

When he asks Kenyans to boycott the referendum he is launching an overt political campaign. Is he aware of that?

Is he therefore also a member of the "political class"?

Along the same vein, when millions of ordinary wananchi united in their determination to kick out KANU from power were they or were they not acting politically? Were they ordered at gun point by members of this sinister class to show up at the polling stations to vote in their preferred candidates? Were they bribed to attend those massive Unbwogable rallies? Were they paid to show up at JKIA to give a tumultous Karibu Nyumbani to Mwai Kibaki when he came back from the UK after his accident?
SOURCE:
jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1128039239

Even with that not so minor ideological quibble about class analysis and Kenyan political realities, I still found the Chesoni/Kiai punditry a lot more credible, spiced as it was with the legacy of democratic participation that has infused the perspectives of the two civil society icons- compared with some of the air headed bursts of bombastic cant that I have suffered through recently.


CONTINUED...

[Onyango Oloo]

2.0. The Marathon Rallies at Uhuru Park and Nyayo Stadium: Whose Were Bigger?

If that sub-heading evokes the puerile swear word comparing machismo competitions, believe me it is deliberate.

NTV and KTN were very even handed in giving fair and equal coverage of the simulatenous rallies at Uhuru Park and Nyayo House. One unanimous verdict: most of the leaders of the rival camps are gifted Kiswahili orators- Saitoti, Martha Karua, Musikari Kombo, Simeon Nyachae, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Martin Shikuku, Ochillo Ayako, David Mwiraria, Uhuru Kenyatta, Mombasa Mayor Taib.

Of the above, the ones who impressed me the most were Taib ( with his nywele parables) Uhuru ( with his supreme command of the Kiswahili language) and William Ruto( the ease with which he can switch from Kiswahili to Sheng to English is amazing). By the time I was talking off to this particular cybercafe I had not yet caught either Moody Awori’s address or Raila’s eagerly anticipated rallying of the troops.

Who had the bigger crowd?

Quite simply the Orange rally.

Another thing worth noting:

Many of the Orange supporters came into the stadium strolling, marching, chanting and toyi toying while I saw hundreds of Banana fans alighting from out of town country buses- with one woman candidly admitting that she had just been bused in from Kinangop.

The Orange rally had more oomph, slightly more pizzazz and oodles of razzmatazz- spontaneous ditties by Kajwang; a reprise of Balala’s dove unleashing magic act; giant oranges, bouts of crowds dancing and ululating.

In sharp contrast the Uhuru Park looked exactly who they were:

A somewhat skeptical captive audience who had been bused in from far flung Banana plantations far removed from Nairoberry.

Easily the buffoon of the afternoon, the prize chump of the day was the one and only Maina Kamanda who revealed to all of Kenya the reason for President Kibaki’s no show:

The Othaya MP could not lower himself to face off against Raila who according to Kamanda was more in Maina Kamanda’s weight class- Kibaki was a heavyweight pugilist soaring way above the apparently politically puny Langata MP. Perhaps someone should whisper to the NAK rabble rouser that one of the cardinal sins of political struggle is underestimating your opponent.

Both rallies were united in urging their mass base to ensure that they woke up on Monday to vote for the respective “winning side”.

In summary, I enjoyed the spectacle:

Kinda reminded me of an incident in mid 1967 when an Indian circus came to an open field next to the Church of God in Nairobi South B near the shopping centre. 38 years later I still have the motorbike traversing inside a globe seared in my elephant memory- not to speak of the pitiful dancing elephants and mind-boggling trapeze artists and fascinating contortionists…

[Onyango Oloo]

3.0. A Trio of Nairobi Scandal Sheets Mouth Off…

Before I left Nairobi yesterday, I picked three papers that are shall we say, slightly different from their mainstream cousins. I am referring to The Leader, published by Royal Media Services and from the same stable as Citizen TV, Ramogi FM, Inooro FM, YFM 96 FM, Musyi FM and Muuga FM; The Independent and the Weekly Citizen published by Headlink Publishers.

Leaving aside their exposes of sexual peccadilloes, I have decided to share with my online readers- a chunk of whom are deprived of this daily gossip because of time zones and humungous oceans- tidbits of uncommon knowledge regarding the imminent kura ya kutafuta maoni juu ya katiba.
Let us begin our journey on page 8 of the November 21st edition of The Leader:

A spirit of shock and disbelief recently gripped Gusii civic leaders when Energy minister and FORD-People, Simeon Nyachae knelt before them in a private meeting to ask them for forgiveness following his alleged past political sins he against them and the Gusii community can authoritatively report. According to an impeccable source, this took place during a recent meeting convened at Nyachae’s rural Nyosia home which attracted eight FORD-People Kisii MPs allied Nyachae and 138 civic leaders drawn from local authorities across Gusiiland. The meeting was organized to chart a way forward as the campaigns on the proposed new constitution reached fever pitch….One of the civic leaders who attended the meeting told us on conditions of anonymity that Nyachae- who looked apologetic and desperate- went down to his knees. He pleaded with the civic leaders to forgive him for having failed to come back after the 2002 general elections to thank them and the Gusii electorate, for standing by him…He promised each pro-Banana councilor in the meeting KShs. 300,000 to finance their 2007 election campaigns if the proposed constitution goes through…

Next, the Weekly Citizen, which touts itself as “Kenya’s Most Authoritative Political Newspaper reveals on its front page story that spills over to page 2:

As the bruising referendum campaign enters its final lap with only days to go now, President Mwai Kibaki is said to be a very worried man indeed despite exuding confidence of carrying the day for the Yes side. According to sources well-versed with the current on-goings at State House who spoke to Weekly Citizen on condition they are not named, an alarmed Kibaki sensing defeat is said to be considering various options if it becomes certain that the Orange will prevail. Last week just before the arrival of Thailand Prime Minister Thaskin Shinawatra at State House, the president is said to have summoned his inner-core and held a crisis meeting that took hours of brainstorming and only ended because of the important guest. At the emergency meeting were Njenga Karume, Amos Kimunya, Chris Murungaru, John Michuki, David Mwiraria and head of service Francis Muthaura. Others were Joe Wanjui who is Chancellor University of Nairobi, Stanley Murage who is PS Special Projects, and Prof. Nick Wanjohi who is vice-chancellor of Kenyatta University. A number of Kibaki’s golfing buddies were also seen in State House that day wearing grim faces. It was clear to discerning watchers that all was not well and the president had cause to worry over the Orange euphoria sweeping parts of the country. During the meeting, our source confided, Kibaki shocked his confidants when he declared that intelligence reports indicated that the Raila Odinga led Orange team was set to win the November 21st referendum hands down unless a miracle happened. Consequently, went on the disturbed President, the Banana group had to formulate a magic campaign strategy if it was to have any face to show around in the post-plebiscite era…In an assertive tone the visibly disturbed president is said to have urged his inner core to mobilize troops for a make or break battle as the government could not afford to lose. He told the keen audience that it was time they invaded Orange territory and swayed the vote to his favour whatever the cost even if it meant applying all tricks in and outside the book. However time, the alarmed president observed, was not on their side and so campaigns had to go on day and night if they were to contain the Orange wave…

Bringing up the rear is Macharia’s Leader with its bold prediction in its November 18-24th edition:

Today, The Leader, with help from impeccable statistical experts, takes the bold step of predicting the outcome of the November 21st vote…Our prediction is that the proposed constitution will be endorsed by Kenyans with a minimum 58.1 percent. In making this decision we declare from the outset that our figures are not based on a scientific poll…on the contrary, our figures are based on reliable data, made available by the Electoral Commission of Kenya, data which is freely accessible… that can be accessed at www.eck.org.co.ke... Our prediction is pegged to the 2002 election voting pattern as well as changed political trends and realities since that election…

[Onyango Oloo]

4.0. Reality Checks and Democratic Convulsions in Kenya...

Brief comments on the above extracts:

On The Independent Nyachae story, it sounds like a macabre fabrication- given McZee Nyachae’s famous patrician mien and ego- but it does speak to one fact- the FORD-People head honcho is a greying carbon copy far removed from his salad days as the rambunctious Chief Secretary or crusading, graft squishing Finance minister.

Regarding the alleged kitchen cabinet session at Ikulu what continues to sadden and amaze me that the President’s inner circle is entirely drawn from pampered and harried fat cats emanating from three affiliated ethnic groups who reside in the Mount Kenya region. I will not be shocked to find out that the official language at State House is Gikuyu- forcing Merus like Muthaura to speak what is the de facto “national language” of NAK. What a bunch of putrid tribalists, these arrogant power barons who think that they can get away with abusing tax payers muthendi for obscene pork barrel politics.

And on the Macharia bold prediction- I would have laughed if I was in the mood. Which wanksta penned that idiotic screed? Among the “proofs” of the projected Banana landslide The Leader cites the Nyachae factor in Nyanza; the Bukusu vote in Western and at the Coast where they claim that the Banana side will win 71.1% of the vote; Nairobi where allegedly the Banana side will take 87% and other unscientific clap trap.

The Leader is conveniently forgetting that the Orange side is precisely strong in the areas where NARC had the biggest chunk of the vote in 2002. Obviously Kenyans DID NOT vote for NARC because of Kibaki, but despite his waffling candidature.

Kenyans in 2002 voted for democratic change and for constitutional reform and that is precisely WHY they are FLOCKING to the Orange Camp because at the mainstream level the No side has evoked precisely these sentiments. It is NOT a coincidence that Raila Odinga who was the main draw of the 2002 NARC rallies is once again the star attraction of the Orange rallies.

As in 2002 a besieged Kenyan despot threatens “rebel” ministers with the gunia. Kibaki is an intelligent man- he should flip back the Kenyan history books.

Unfortunately for NAK, history DOES NOT repeat itself.

What is going to happen in Kenya in the period after the referendum is a completely changed political scenario.

Kibaki and his NAK handlers have exposed themselves as tribal, power obsessed cynical and opportunistic political conmen who will not hesitate to out KANU KANU and out Moi Moi.

And whenever I hear Banana ideologues- including some sophisticated civil society pundits lambaste the Orange team as a KANU retread, I look at Moi’s long term vice president and KANU life member and I chuckle; I look at Njenga Karume and I guffaw; I look at Moi’s Chief Secretary and senior business partner Simeon Nyachae and I smile; I look at Kipkalya Kones, John Koech and Moody Awori and I shake my head in bemusement.

It has come to the final stretch.

What is Onyango Oloo’s prediction?

Orange side wins by 70% based on the Kenyan government’s own internal intelligence reports.

The Yes side can only win through outright rigging- and even that would be difficult kwa sababu WaKenya hawajalalia masikio…

[Onyango Oloo]

5.0. After the Referendum What Next for Kenyans?

Contrary to what some of my leftist and civil society pals may say, the Kenyan people have re-entered history in a massive way. One indication was to see EVERYONE at my new workplace- from the middle class managers, to the working class clerical staff to the semi-proletarian gate keepers- everyone literally left town to go to either their rural homes or their urban based Nairobi constituencies to vote. Everywhere on matatus, taxis, in the cafes and cybercafes, the referendum is dominating all the conversation. The saturation coverage of the poll context in all the major Kenyan networks attests to the fact that the referendum is the number one issue on the Kenyan political agenda right now.

This flies in the face of the constant pooh poohs of this stand off/face off/run off by some well-known petit bourgeois pundits inside and outside the country.

As I argued recently those cynical sour puss figures who keep whining and asking how many sufurias of ugali the katiba will bring are simply talking out of their backsides:

jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1129229001

In my opinion the political momentum that has been built up among the wananchi since mid 2002 is slated to mature and deepen in the post referendum period.

Only those leaders who keep their fingers on the wananchi’s pulse will remain standing by the time 2007 rolls around.

I am talking about the Orange team- because the Bananiacs are already a lost cause.

Onyango Oloo
Mombasa

[50cents]

Where would we be without you. Keep them coming and make sure you dont get oukoed.