Post by Onyango Oloo on Nov 22, 2005 12:03:22 GMT 3
A Preliminary Assessment of the Orange Landslide by Onyango Oloo...
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The Orange/Banana/Yes/No/ verdict is in as you can see from the following sites:
today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-11-22T091826Z_01_SIB166948_RTRUKOC_0_US-KENYA-REFERENDUM.xml&archived=False
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4455538.stm
edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/africa/11/22/kenya.vote.ap/
english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/55041828-6DEA-461D-BF72-6F06CE74941D.htm
breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=69869210&p=698695yz
www.communication.go.ke/referendum_results.asp
www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgreferendum.asp
www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=32556
I spent the whole night with one eye locked on the television drinking in the better than chocolate poll results from all over the country. In my eagerness to do this I completely forgot to be forlorn over my mishap in a Bamburi bound matatu that made a two finger discount specialist lighten my load by relieving me of my almost brand new Samsung cell phone somewhere in the middle of the Nyali Bridge...
By around five minutes to nine, two Nairobi-based television stations- KTN and NTV- had both declared that the Orange lead was unassailable.
Breaking it down, with 85% of the vote counted and tallied, the Orange side had garnered 3,085,203 votes(59.5%) compared to 2,100,015(40.5%) in one of the most hotly contested political campaigns in Kenya's modern history.
In the process, the Orange wave had also swept 7 out of 8 provinces: Nairobi (54%); Coast (79%); North Eastern (63%); Eastern (53%); Nyanza (86%), Western (59%) and Rift Valley (74%).
On the other hand, the Bananiacs swept the Central Province (92%).
Here are some of the leading Yes men and Yes women who failed to deliver the Banana vote in their respective constitutencies:
Vice President Moody Awori; Energy minister Simeon Nyachae; Education minister Prof. George Saitoti; Health minister Charity Ngilu; NAK Chief Whip Norman Nyagah, Information and Broadcasting minister Raphael Tuju; minister John Koech, Maalim Mohamed;junior attack hounds Kivutha Kibwana, Kalembe Ndile, Maina Kamanda, Ananias Mwaboza, Suleiman Shakombo, Boniface Mganga and that excitable motormouth, Danson Mungatana.
The extent of the referendum night slaughter could not be more stark.
In Central Province the Yes side completely shut out the Orange side- as they did in Meru and some parts of Bukusu land- notably Kwanza, Kimilili and Kanduyi.
Elsewhere, the Bananiacs were badly bruised and brutally battered by the Orange juggernaut. The high provincial tallies tell only half the story: in parts of Nyanza the NO figures were as high as 99%; at the Coast and in pockets of the Rift Valley, the highs veered close to some of the Nyanza statistics.
Even though Uhuru Kenyatta lost, he still managed the highest chunk of pro- NO votes in Central Province when he locked away 35% of the Gatundu South votes.
Some of us are not in the least surprised- in fact we expected higher numbers. Were it not for those stratospheric numbers by the Yes side in Central Province the true verdict would have read something closer to the high 70s and low 80s.
In any case, since all that was required was a simple majority, the Wako Draft is just as good as buried.
What are some of the outcomes of the referendum vote which was very, very decisive.
Contrary to those dubious numbers crunched out by the Steadman Group, Kenyans had long ago made up their minds one way or the other.
The pro-Orange youth also silenced their detractors who had dismissed them as "idle" and "unemployed". In many constituencies, these vijana made up the bulk of the voters on referendum day- the crowds at the rallies did not just come for "entertainment"; they stayed on to vote on the crucial day of reckoning.
Ironically the skewed vote that pitted the Central Kenyan communities of the Agikuyu, Chuka, Embu, Meru, Tigania, Tharaka, Igoji, Ndia, etc underlined one of the factors that Wako, Kiraitu and the drafters of the now dead mongrel tried to strike out of the Bomas Draft:
Devolution of powers to the regions and respective communities.
The people of Central province and their cousins in Eastern province clearly demonstrated that they passionately SUPPORT ETHNIC APARTHEID and therefore should actually agitate for a regional government to be called the Mount Kenya Gema Banana Republic because clearly they passionately want a Kikuyu president lording over a republic that guarantteed Mega-Gema ethno-political economic dominance. The same can be said of the Bukusu community who were quite united in pushing for their Abaluhya First agenda. It is a very sad commentary indeed that Kenya's largest and most populous community, the Agikuyu have turned their backs on their own country to pursue parochial, ultimately doomed political cul de sacs from which they cannot break through to the other side.
On a related note, President Kibaki must rue the day when he opened his big mouth and unleashed the "wapumbavu" outburst. Who is the pumbavu now?
Prior to the just concluded referendum, some ministers were yodelling about who was going to get the gunia.
It is now clear who should be shown the door- anyone whose constituency posted a Banana loss- Awori, Nyachae, Ngilu, Koech, Ruto etc, plus those ministers whose frantic clamour for an imperial presidency brought Kenyans to the bring of civil strife- people like Nyachae, Kiraitu, Maina Kamanda, Amos Kimunya, Danson Mungatana, Kalembe Ndile, Kivutha Kibwana and others.
Kenyans of a democratic and patriotic bent who came out in their hundreds of thousands and millions crying foul to the caricature of a top down constitutional making process must not only be sighing with relief, but drowning in the delightful euphoria of riding the victory crest engulfing the nation. In particular we must thank Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, Ochilo Ayako, William Ruto, Julia Ojiambo, Mwandawiro Mghanga, Prof. Anyang Nyongo, Jebii Kilimo, Mayor Taib, Musalia Mudavadi and other Orange leading lights both political and technocrat who collectively put together the beautiful Orange team that united politically, culturally and ideologically diverse Kenyans from Lunga Lunga to Malaba, Moyale to Loitoktok.
What next now for the Orange team?
I think they should remain focused, not prematurely dreaming of State House tenancy and so on. They should remain focused on constitutional reform because that is after all, their raison d'etre.
A key way of moving forward with a lot of people (sympathizers and fellow travelers who are perhaps to the LEFT of where most of the Orange leaders stand) is to make arrangements for the setting up of a Constituent Assembly.
Here is more information on constituent assemblies etc:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constituent_Assembly
Perhaps a key component of this proposed constituent assembly could be former Bomas Delegates; another one could be those faith based and civil society organizations that felt excluded at the last national constitutional conference; a third, fourth, fifth and sixth component could be special delegates representing women, youth, pastoral communities, marginalized peoples and people with disabilities. Kenyans Abroad should form the seventh plank for this constituent assembly.The eigth component of this constituent assembly should be the organized members of the Kenyan Left who have a more long term grass roots and anti-imperialist agenda that extends way beyond the 2007 electoral contestations for political power.
I have a message for President Mwai Kibaki:
To the general citizenry of our beautiful country this plea;
Fellow wananchi: let us move beyond the referendum. Let us not reduce ourselves to "enemy" and "friendly" tribes. We are all Kenyans. Let us respect our political and ideological diversity- including the fact that in our big constitutional debate we were split right down the middle and that these fissures were often overlaid with ethnic animosty, religious intolerance and personal suspicions.
Thrice in three years we have registered back to back democratic victories; the Unbwogable Defeat of the Moi-KANU Dictatorship; the Bomas Proclamation of the Zero Draft and the Orange Stoppage of the Wako Draft. These three Katiba linked victories have opened up democratic space in ways that will resonate with us for decades to come.
We have truly said kwaheri to those sinister one party days when we used to look over our shoulders before we whispered our suppressed political opinions behind barricaded kitchen doors.
Let us continue to demonstrate to Africa and the world that we are closely following the nyayos of our South African sistren and brethren in slowly but surely building one of the greatest democratic societies on the African continent.
As for now I end by saying:
A Lutta Continua!
Onyango Oloo
Mombasa
The Orange/Banana/Yes/No/ verdict is in as you can see from the following sites:
today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-11-22T091826Z_01_SIB166948_RTRUKOC_0_US-KENYA-REFERENDUM.xml&archived=False
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4455538.stm
edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/africa/11/22/kenya.vote.ap/
english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/55041828-6DEA-461D-BF72-6F06CE74941D.htm
breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=69869210&p=698695yz
www.communication.go.ke/referendum_results.asp
www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgreferendum.asp
www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=32556
I spent the whole night with one eye locked on the television drinking in the better than chocolate poll results from all over the country. In my eagerness to do this I completely forgot to be forlorn over my mishap in a Bamburi bound matatu that made a two finger discount specialist lighten my load by relieving me of my almost brand new Samsung cell phone somewhere in the middle of the Nyali Bridge...
By around five minutes to nine, two Nairobi-based television stations- KTN and NTV- had both declared that the Orange lead was unassailable.
Breaking it down, with 85% of the vote counted and tallied, the Orange side had garnered 3,085,203 votes(59.5%) compared to 2,100,015(40.5%) in one of the most hotly contested political campaigns in Kenya's modern history.
In the process, the Orange wave had also swept 7 out of 8 provinces: Nairobi (54%); Coast (79%); North Eastern (63%); Eastern (53%); Nyanza (86%), Western (59%) and Rift Valley (74%).
On the other hand, the Bananiacs swept the Central Province (92%).
Here are some of the leading Yes men and Yes women who failed to deliver the Banana vote in their respective constitutencies:
Vice President Moody Awori; Energy minister Simeon Nyachae; Education minister Prof. George Saitoti; Health minister Charity Ngilu; NAK Chief Whip Norman Nyagah, Information and Broadcasting minister Raphael Tuju; minister John Koech, Maalim Mohamed;junior attack hounds Kivutha Kibwana, Kalembe Ndile, Maina Kamanda, Ananias Mwaboza, Suleiman Shakombo, Boniface Mganga and that excitable motormouth, Danson Mungatana.
The extent of the referendum night slaughter could not be more stark.
In Central Province the Yes side completely shut out the Orange side- as they did in Meru and some parts of Bukusu land- notably Kwanza, Kimilili and Kanduyi.
Elsewhere, the Bananiacs were badly bruised and brutally battered by the Orange juggernaut. The high provincial tallies tell only half the story: in parts of Nyanza the NO figures were as high as 99%; at the Coast and in pockets of the Rift Valley, the highs veered close to some of the Nyanza statistics.
Even though Uhuru Kenyatta lost, he still managed the highest chunk of pro- NO votes in Central Province when he locked away 35% of the Gatundu South votes.
Some of us are not in the least surprised- in fact we expected higher numbers. Were it not for those stratospheric numbers by the Yes side in Central Province the true verdict would have read something closer to the high 70s and low 80s.
In any case, since all that was required was a simple majority, the Wako Draft is just as good as buried.
What are some of the outcomes of the referendum vote which was very, very decisive.
Contrary to those dubious numbers crunched out by the Steadman Group, Kenyans had long ago made up their minds one way or the other.
The pro-Orange youth also silenced their detractors who had dismissed them as "idle" and "unemployed". In many constituencies, these vijana made up the bulk of the voters on referendum day- the crowds at the rallies did not just come for "entertainment"; they stayed on to vote on the crucial day of reckoning.
Ironically the skewed vote that pitted the Central Kenyan communities of the Agikuyu, Chuka, Embu, Meru, Tigania, Tharaka, Igoji, Ndia, etc underlined one of the factors that Wako, Kiraitu and the drafters of the now dead mongrel tried to strike out of the Bomas Draft:
Devolution of powers to the regions and respective communities.
The people of Central province and their cousins in Eastern province clearly demonstrated that they passionately SUPPORT ETHNIC APARTHEID and therefore should actually agitate for a regional government to be called the Mount Kenya Gema Banana Republic because clearly they passionately want a Kikuyu president lording over a republic that guarantteed Mega-Gema ethno-political economic dominance. The same can be said of the Bukusu community who were quite united in pushing for their Abaluhya First agenda. It is a very sad commentary indeed that Kenya's largest and most populous community, the Agikuyu have turned their backs on their own country to pursue parochial, ultimately doomed political cul de sacs from which they cannot break through to the other side.
On a related note, President Kibaki must rue the day when he opened his big mouth and unleashed the "wapumbavu" outburst. Who is the pumbavu now?
Prior to the just concluded referendum, some ministers were yodelling about who was going to get the gunia.
It is now clear who should be shown the door- anyone whose constituency posted a Banana loss- Awori, Nyachae, Ngilu, Koech, Ruto etc, plus those ministers whose frantic clamour for an imperial presidency brought Kenyans to the bring of civil strife- people like Nyachae, Kiraitu, Maina Kamanda, Amos Kimunya, Danson Mungatana, Kalembe Ndile, Kivutha Kibwana and others.
Kenyans of a democratic and patriotic bent who came out in their hundreds of thousands and millions crying foul to the caricature of a top down constitutional making process must not only be sighing with relief, but drowning in the delightful euphoria of riding the victory crest engulfing the nation. In particular we must thank Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, Ochilo Ayako, William Ruto, Julia Ojiambo, Mwandawiro Mghanga, Prof. Anyang Nyongo, Jebii Kilimo, Mayor Taib, Musalia Mudavadi and other Orange leading lights both political and technocrat who collectively put together the beautiful Orange team that united politically, culturally and ideologically diverse Kenyans from Lunga Lunga to Malaba, Moyale to Loitoktok.
What next now for the Orange team?
I think they should remain focused, not prematurely dreaming of State House tenancy and so on. They should remain focused on constitutional reform because that is after all, their raison d'etre.
A key way of moving forward with a lot of people (sympathizers and fellow travelers who are perhaps to the LEFT of where most of the Orange leaders stand) is to make arrangements for the setting up of a Constituent Assembly.
Here is more information on constituent assemblies etc:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constituent_Assembly
Perhaps a key component of this proposed constituent assembly could be former Bomas Delegates; another one could be those faith based and civil society organizations that felt excluded at the last national constitutional conference; a third, fourth, fifth and sixth component could be special delegates representing women, youth, pastoral communities, marginalized peoples and people with disabilities. Kenyans Abroad should form the seventh plank for this constituent assembly.The eigth component of this constituent assembly should be the organized members of the Kenyan Left who have a more long term grass roots and anti-imperialist agenda that extends way beyond the 2007 electoral contestations for political power.
I have a message for President Mwai Kibaki:
Number One: Accept Defeat. Please humble yourself before the Kenyan people.
Number Two: Humble yourself before the wananchi and and do another live, televised address this time APOLOGIZING for calling us Wapumbavu and underscoring you will lead the way towards the much vaunted national reconciliation by ensuring that Kenyans do get a people-driven Katiba.
Number Three: Execute the threat to fire some ministers from your cabinet- like Kiraitu Murungi, Simeon Nyachae, John Michuki, Chris Murungaru, Raphael Tuju, David Mwiraria, Martha Karua, Robinson Njeru Githae and others.
Number Four: Move swiftly to assert your job description of the President of the Republic of Kenya- rather than the chieftain of the Agikuyu, Meru and Emu kingdom.
Number Two: Humble yourself before the wananchi and and do another live, televised address this time APOLOGIZING for calling us Wapumbavu and underscoring you will lead the way towards the much vaunted national reconciliation by ensuring that Kenyans do get a people-driven Katiba.
Number Three: Execute the threat to fire some ministers from your cabinet- like Kiraitu Murungi, Simeon Nyachae, John Michuki, Chris Murungaru, Raphael Tuju, David Mwiraria, Martha Karua, Robinson Njeru Githae and others.
Number Four: Move swiftly to assert your job description of the President of the Republic of Kenya- rather than the chieftain of the Agikuyu, Meru and Emu kingdom.
To the general citizenry of our beautiful country this plea;
Fellow wananchi: let us move beyond the referendum. Let us not reduce ourselves to "enemy" and "friendly" tribes. We are all Kenyans. Let us respect our political and ideological diversity- including the fact that in our big constitutional debate we were split right down the middle and that these fissures were often overlaid with ethnic animosty, religious intolerance and personal suspicions.
Thrice in three years we have registered back to back democratic victories; the Unbwogable Defeat of the Moi-KANU Dictatorship; the Bomas Proclamation of the Zero Draft and the Orange Stoppage of the Wako Draft. These three Katiba linked victories have opened up democratic space in ways that will resonate with us for decades to come.
We have truly said kwaheri to those sinister one party days when we used to look over our shoulders before we whispered our suppressed political opinions behind barricaded kitchen doors.
Let us continue to demonstrate to Africa and the world that we are closely following the nyayos of our South African sistren and brethren in slowly but surely building one of the greatest democratic societies on the African continent.
As for now I end by saying:
A Lutta Continua!
Onyango Oloo
Mombasa
