The Thinking BEHIND the MOVE

[abdulmote]

Muthee, the referendum is now done as we all know but the work has just begun. The public will be waiting in anticipation of ‘something’ from you and that is why it is important for you to give it to them but not necessarily in a rush. You see, some of those Orangemen will also be planning their game after their win on Tuesday and it is inevitable that they will be trying to maximise their gains.

First of all it is important to understand that the ODM and their supporters are currently in a euphoric mood. In other words and in all probability, the movement is currently enjoying massive support from the majority of the electorate and that is not a good situation to be in. We must therefore do something about it and quickly so.

Muthee, as you very well know these peepo are not genuinely interested in leading and providing the peepo with the constitution they want, but in fact are doing all this so that they may capture the statehouse through the back door. We must not allow that to happen.

It follows that we must destabilise their plan and throw them into disarray. To start with, I am inclined to think that they have spent a considerable amount of money towards the Referendum campaign. I am told some of them have spent at least ten million shillings each and that is apart from what they had received from their well wishers and financers.

It is obvious that the first thing they will want to do is to start taking account of what they have spent and what they owe their creditors in anticipation of balancing their books in the days ahead. And this is where you can straight away give them a shock of their lifetime. Sack them! That should rub it in. For a long time now these peepo have been insulting and abusing your generosity and humble self and daring you to do just that. Now is the time.

By sacking them, the Orangemen will be thrown into confusion. You would have taken them by surprise and that way they will be stunned by your move. The reality may be so severe in impact, that some of them may not know where to turn to. That way you will have incapacitated them!

Secondly you have to protect yourself from a potential ‘vote of no confidence’ against your government. What you have to understand is that some of these pumbavu have smelt blood from the Referendum defeat. In effect, there is no telling which way they may want to go for their own selfish reasons. Once you sack the Orangemen, it is possible that they may want to bring you down altogether. Therefore you cannot afford to leave a lot of loose monkeys without a keeper if you know what I mean. Some of these peepo will still be expecting a lot more after all that they have been given for the campaign and they know that they will not be getting anything more from you at least for a while! Which means you must also ‘take care’ of all of them lest they become your enemies as well and that will be like adding fuel to the fire.

But how?

Sack the entire Cabinet! Yes. First of all, the Constitution provides for a possible ‘vote of no confidence’ only on the Government and not the President on his own. By sacking the entire cabinet, there will be no Government to be voted against, at least for as long as it takes you to create another one! That way first; you will be throwing the OM into disarray and into their financial miseries and incapacitation. Two, the ‘blood smelling’ Parliament will not be able to initiate a vote of no confidence on your government which will not be existing for a while, something which can take everyone down, although I am reluctant to think they could ever do that, pumbavu hii. Three, you get to buy time which you so much and strategically need, which will help to calm the nation down and allow you to gather yourself back afresh, with a new team of ministers and assistant ministers who will be totally loyal to you and affirmatively on your side!

Now then, it means you have to immediately fire the entire cabinet, ministers and their assistants, and declare to replace them in at least two weeks time which should be sufficiently enough to get the job done.

All the best of lack Mr. President.

In the meantime, the Orangemen are in for a shock of their lifetime…

[kamalet]

For a man under siege like Kibaki, he certainly can do with such advice Abdulmote!

You are right that Kibaki will now have to play politics and we are taking bare knuckle politics if he is to survive - nothing like funny delegations and community goodies. These do not work!


Muthee,

For starters, to maintain the initiative, you must issue a special gazette notice Proroguing parliament so that no session takes place on Tuesday. That gives you three and a half months to March next year when parliament is not sitting and no subversive agenda can be debated by the ODM in parliament.

Secondly, when forming your next cabinet, keep it lean within the promises you made in 2002, do not give people an opportunity to criticise you for loading the cabinet with reward seats. Call some of your cronies whom you must sacrifice for appeasement and explain why you are doing it. You should learn the trick from Moi when he 'sacked' Biwott but still retained him as a close advisor...something along those lines!

Finally, go for the people than manned the propaganda machine of the ODM - bribe them if you will - since your 'development agenda' must be repeatedly shouted to all and sundry to show that you are working and delivering.

[kamalet]

Kibaki is listening to me!!!

He just issued a special gazette proroguing parliament

[abdulmote]

That was rather quick! But I don't like it a bit! Kibaki is certainly 'overstretching' his reaction. If anything, these moves are only strengthening the need for the reformed Constitution as argued. The whole nation has been held hostage if you like. The situation is becoming pretty desperate, uncertain and somehow worrying. But at least people like 'us' with our 'unpolitical' views are not there on the ground to make all that noise like we do I should say.

On the other hand, we are closely watching the Oranginas!

Power to the people and for the people!

[job]

Kamale,

Your focus like Kibaki's (as usual) is not on the Kenyan people, but on Kibaki's political survival, probably as a hobby, out of admiration, or as a payroll duty if you know what I mean.

Kibaki may repeat the same mistakes again by banking on few individual leaders rather than the people directly. Well, we just saw the YIELDS of his reliance on Nyachae, Ngilu, Tuju, Dzoro, Mwakwere, Mungatana, Saitoti, Awori, Kibwana and Ndile.............TOTAL REJECTION.

I can tell you that Kibaki's handlers are the last people any ODM leader wants to be seen around this time, lest their constituents hear of any rumours. Any ODM leader that hangs around State House minders, would join the Banana dumpster at a moments notice. If Kibaki doubt's that, then let him stick in denial.

Aren't these folks above,(Nyachae et al) the same political leaders who previously claimed to command mandate from their respective constituencies?

The ODM is a national movement comprising the same Kenyans you saw voting against Kibaki's government. It is about people (voters), not few individuals in leadership.

Kibaki may have realized he can't go out to the same people, pumbavu wananchi, ....and mavi ya kuku Kenyans, .... and try to win them back.

Therefore, Kibaki believes he has to hang on other leaders coats (read ODM ) to reach their respective constituencies. If that's the case then he's not worthy being a national leader, leave alone President.

Juggling with the politics of dishing goodies to political opponents and their people has just failed. I said earlier that he may or may not "poach", some ODM leaders, but that will leave the ODM intact, & the "poached" leader will be avoided like a lepper in the political sense, essentially finishing themselves.

Try to follow the political histories of people like Musalia Mudavadi and Katana Ngala and you may get a sense of what I'm saying. Kenya has changed, guys.

When Moi recently remarked that the ODM has acquired a life of its own and is unstoppable, some doubting Thomases quickly dismissed that as crap. Moi had simply diagnosed a revolutionary movement in the making, that is the Orange Democratic Movement.

I can tell you the ODM train is getting more boarders than those alighting, and any of its leaders that alights will only need to reflect on whether the terms offered are worth their political future.

I'll repeat, Musalia was offered The Vice Presidency on a failing regime for a short time and he couldn't even get re-elected back as MP. From VP to an ordinary Raia, Is that not a lesson about the beauty of Kenyan siasa? You simply misbehave or get carried away in "tamaa" and you are political history.

Remind Kibaki that the people have spoken!,... they have reasserted their power and will. They still have it and can exercise it by several means I don't need to delve into.

By dissolving the cabinet and proroguing parliament, Kibaki has not surprised anybody. I hope you are not imagining that he has pulled a surprise that the people & the ODM leadership never thought was a possibility. All these post-referendum scenarios were debated and played out well in advance.

The path Kibaki has followed was very predictable. Having been humiliated by the public who stole back the mandate they gave him, he was simply asked to resign or call for fresh polls, simple.

He has instead hoped to chicken out, ........buy time, and stop any official government (cabinet) or legislative gatherings and meetings. He hopes time will cool down the public outrage at him. He hopes time will offer his handlers enough time to "poach" ODM leaders.

ODM leaders are busy charting the future avenues on the Katiba debate & lining up their possible parliamentary nominees come the next elections, while he is busy trying to buy or divide them.

This spectacle has exposed to the public eye,...... what is called, a governance vacuum. Kibaki remains perched at the helm of the executive, when the rest of the executive(cabinet) & the legislature, can't meet on serious policy matters as necessitated by the now concluded referendum.

So we are now under the direction of the big man, an Imperial ruler. Well, as his subjects who have just defeated his government by rejecting his proposed constitution, we are just going to try talk to him, since we know he has no time to talk to pumbavus.

We want him to listen to us and call for fresh elections now.

You were very right to point out that the plebiscite was not actually about the Wako draft per-se, but more about,....a referendum on his governance.

There is a trend here. Kibaki alienated himself from his national political allies and the electorate in general, long ago. The regional sycophants he surrounded himself with could not redeem him politically.

He condoned corruption, abused his voters, perpetrated the worst form of tribalism and cronyism ever witnessed in the nation, failed to honour most of his pre-election pledges like creating jobs, building new low income households, etc etc (he opted to re-build State House & have his loyalists fleece public coffers instead).

His biggest failure was the attempt to sneak & force down wananchi's throats, a constitution that plans to install a GEMA hegemony in Kenya. He rubbished 4 tiered-devolution, executive power sharing, and the establishment of a senate among other desired reforms proposed by Kenyans (ironically some proposed by him).

Now Kenyans are talking back to President Kibaki.

unedited.

Job.

[kamalet]

Your focus like Kibaki's (as usual) is not on the Kenyan people, but on Kibaki's political survival, probably as a hobby, out of admiration, or as a payroll duty if you know what I mean.

Job,

Are you able to show any ONE Kenyan politician that does anything for Kenyans apart from their own political growth and survival?

So I can only see the moves politicians make in that light!

Kamale