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Post by kamalet on Nov 24, 2005 18:56:29 GMT 3
Is Kenya about to see a repeat of the 1966 little general elections that were precipitated by the formation of KPU by Raila's dad and led to elections in 28 constituencies?
The ODM today called for Kibaki to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections. One thing that is certain is that Kibaki will not respond to them, and I have a feeling that he will prorogue parliament before it meets next tuesday. This means all legislative agenda is suspended until March 2006 which should allow for sufficient cooling of heads.
So the big question, is whether ODM can muster sufficient courage to resign their seats in parliament under the NARC name and go back to the electorate and get elected on an ODM ticket.
I have my own doubts about all the chest thumping for there is a great danger that these ODM politicians are being blinded by power derived from their NO success and are removing their eyes from the prize which is a new constitution. This talk of Kibaki resigning or parliament being dissolved simply falls in the hands of those who kept accusing the ODM of being power hungry and never interested in a new constitution.
It is also important that there be checks on individual agendas of some of the people in the ODM. Are satisfied that Gedion Moi and Ruto are genuinely interested in a new constitution or do they want to push an agenda that allows them to bargain for their perceived wrongs of the past? Is this the same case for Ntimama? We need to ask these questions.
One mistake that ODM can make is to disillusion their millions of supporters by poorly managing the momentum they have. They must also work to earn the respect of the people that did not agree with them. But when you have Ruto calling a press conference asking Kibaki to dissolve parliament, then we move away from he real agenda into power games.
Can ODM keep this clean?
PS. After writing this Kibaki issued a gazette notice to prorogue parliament indefinitely.
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Post by adongo12345 on Nov 25, 2005 20:18:53 GMT 3
Kamale
Your silliness is beginning to confound me. I thought you were much smarter than you are beginning to sound. Don't tell me you are having difficulties recovering from the whipping you guys got from Kenyan voters.
First of all it is very childish of you to refer to Jaramogi Oginga Odinga as "Raila's dad". The man has a name and a patriotic history very few in our continent can match. Respect the old man, whatever your agenda. Any fool can see what you are trying to infer. Ati it is the Odinga's causing trouble again. This is supposed to direct us to the nauseating Luo and Odinga family bashing fest that failed miserably at the referendum. Give it a break.
Secondly don't you think you sound ridiculous telling those allied to the ODM which is not a parliamentary entity to go seek a new mandate from Kenyans when 60% of voters just gave them a mandate to pursue the most prominent agenda in our nation in this generation- ushering a new democratic constitution and a new political order in the country.
If Kibaki had guts, which nobody can accuse him of, wouldn't he better serve the country by dissolving parliament after his vision for the country was resoundingly rejected and giving Kenyans a chance to elect a new government? We don't even have a government as we speak. Our country for the first time in its 42 years of independence is under overt and direct rule of presidential decrees. How pathetic!!!
If parliament is prorogued for three months, wouldn't the Kenyan taxpayer be better off not paying MPs for doing nothing, but instead let all MPs go back and seek the mandate of the people? It takes three months to have elections. Now we are going to pay MPs three months to do nothing because Kibaki is terrified the MPs are going to put pressure on him. What kind of cowardice and reckless mismanagement of taxpayer's money is Kibaki engaging in?
If I were you I would worry less about how the ODM is managing their victory and/or momentum and concentrate on how Kibaki is already mismanaging his defeat.
Kenyans want a new constitution and they already told Kibaki, he is not the one who will give it to them.
Kibaki tried to intimidate Kenyans to vote for his fraud, they refused. He is not in a position to intimidate anybody anymore. Let him humble himself to that reality.
Nop, history does not repeat itself in a static cycle my friend, it moves in dynamic ways and that is what you guys will take a lifetime to figure out. The old Luo/Kikuyu contest in national politics is history. Let's move on.
And by the way Kamale, the ODM cannot fight for a new constitution as mandated to them by Kenyans without fighting for political power in the country. The myth that the ODM should only talk about and fight for a new constituion without fighting for political power is dangerous fiction.
Elsewhere in this forum we have said a million times that the fight for a new constitution can go nowhere without the fight for political power. Get used to that reality.
Kenyans know already that there wil be no new constitution without a new government in place. They are ready to elect that government any time.
If Kibaki is so sure about his "popular" support then let's go to the polls. What better way to silence his critics than calling elections and winning them again?
You and I know the truth, don't we? Kibaki has no chance winning any time soon and there is no replacement yet. What now? That is the question. Kenyans will answer that question for them much sooner than they imagine.
Before I go, did I send my rambi rambis to you, Ndugu Kamale? Isapoa sio? Poleni.
Tuonane Mbele
Adongo
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Post by job on Nov 25, 2005 22:29:51 GMT 3
Kamale,
Now that you're trying to dig up 1966 history, inject a little about the Saint called Jomo Kenyatta too. In the same context, you may reffer to him as "Uhuru's dad".
Welcome back to the contemporary Kenya (2005!!!!) where people don't care which tribe the President comes from, while demanding their rights. If you bank on trying to demonize one tribe, it can precisely backfire on you. You may be astonished or amazed, but I saw this "boomerang" coming a long time ago, even before the late Karisa Maitha blurted out some stereotyped declaration ( I have nothing to do with).
Kenya may be destined for better things whereby good governance will be embraced,...while corrupt, arrogant, insensitive, and vindictive ones will be rejected, no matter who's steering the country.
As you will observe in this forum, like in most national debates, ....genuine wananchi will be focusing on fighting tribalism, corruption, and fraud while championing for the implementation of social reforms desired by the people themselves. That tells you Kibaki is swimming upstream, against what his people want, hence his recent miserable defeat.
Believe it or not, an educated attache (hails from Mt. Kenya horizons,...I'll not name him of course) based at the Kenyan Embassy in Washington DC, recently gave me his tribal laced predictions on the referendum, prior to November 21st.
He said, Nairobi & Central are obviously going YES because they're dominated by "their people", Rift Valley is going 50-50, Coast 50-50, Western is going YES due to Kombo and Awori, and Ukambani is going YES since "they are our cousins", and Ngilu is there. As for NEP, he arrogantly told me they don't care since there's no votes there anyway. He believed they would get 30% Nyanza through Nyachae.
I indeed shared a post referendum conversation with him on Wednesday evening. He blamed their loss on one 'liar" who managed to convince 'pumbavu" Kenyans to believe such sweetened lies. I don't need to name the so called liar. He did acknowledge that he doesn't understand why that liar captivates millions of Kenyan pumbavus who seem to believe in him so much.
He predicted an omnious future for him. "He has to be very careful now!", he declared but denied a comment when I enquired about what he precisely meant by careful. "careful about his life or political fortunes?", I probed to a silent wall.
Lets talk some tribal politics and truth here,....since you seem to be keen on highlighting tribal political conflicts.
I agree that tribalism still exists in Kenya and that tribal suspicions, pitting tribe against another has been a major political tool that all three former Presidents of Kenya have used.
Fact: Kenyan tribes have overwhelmingly voted for two Kikuyu Presidents, Kibaki included.
Fact: Such Presidents have immediately embarked on the politics of isolation, to isolate some communities (percieved as too inquisitive and probing eg Luo) from the rest of the nation by sheer propaganda, and through despising of their culture(s).
Fact: Such Presidents have then proceeded to simultaneously plunder & loot ( arrogantly..."kwani nimekula mbuzi ya nani".....) the country's resources, including land,..... and controlled most public procurement,... in the process enriching themselves. As they do this they've always believed they have the support of other Kenyan communities, hence they've felt safe and secure throughout the thieving.
Fact: Monies made through such plunder of Kenyan resources has been recycled into politics to give tribal politican entities (such as DP, Ford-Asili, Safina...etc) undue advantage over other broke parties led by less influential Wananchi.
Fact: Simultaneously, other avenues for aquisition of wealth and power have been sought through constitution ammendments (more than 6 during Kenyatta era), and as in the recent case, attempted overhaul of the constitution.
Fact: To do this repeatedly, over and over again, some of these perpetrators have actually believed that the wananchi are still too stupid (pumbavu) to comprehend the sophisticated procurement- and-contract-based, public embezzlement.
The sleaze perpetrators have received insulation from prosecution through; powers of the executive Presidency (as in Anglo Fleecers, some banned in foreign countries), executive controlled parliament (as in norman Nyaga's pay- for-vote choir), executive controlled judiciary (Gicheru's band), and the executive controlled "for-show" KACC (Ringera's orchestra).
Kibaki's handlers, like many tribal politicians (past & present), and many of their elite pundits, have thrived in trying to woe other tribes against particular Kenyan communities. That has defined national politics during the Kibaki era just as much as the previous Kenyatta one.
Is this really the best politics of the day? It doesn't seem to work, but some people still don't get it. This thing long backfired on them.
No one will cheer you as you rob their resources and divert their attention to some innocent bloke marginalized along some shores.
People will not only cheer but support brave wananchi who question plunder, fraud, injustice,......... wananchi who lead in the quest for social and law reforms.
The hallmark of Kibaki's political advisors has been, to keep other communities busy and distracted in tribal debates,...Kombo vs Raila,... Nyachae vs Raila,..... Mungatana vs Raila,...... Kituyi vs Raila,....Kamanda vs Kalonzo,...... Kiraitu vs Moi, .......Karua vs Ruto, ......as the national resources are plundered into the hands of a few ethnic contractors,.. and more avenues for acquisition of national wealth and power sought.
Other communities were previously made to believe that the only avenue to power is through the support of the Kikuyu, hence you must be loyal to them. The professional follower, Musikari Kombo seemed to believe this so much that he only forgot to research on their voting patterns. Have Kikuyu's ever, ever, ever, voted for a non Kikuyu President? Kombo was made to believe he will be the first to receive this big voting bloc.
Well, such tribal schemers have been overtaken by events in contemporary Kenya. Kenya's face has changed permanently.
Only coalitions and alliances identifying with the peoples cause will rule Kenya in future.
The Big Man era of dictatorship, autocracy,& authoritarianism, or the Iron-cabals of aristocracy or kleptocracy is no more in Kenya.
Kenyan voters will only listen and do busines with national political outfits that espouse sharing of power and national resources fairly & equitably.
peace.
Job.
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Post by 50cents on Nov 26, 2005 23:13:06 GMT 3
Specially Kamau's
The Njonjo saga
When Njonjo appeared at the Orange thanksgiving rally at Nairobi’s Uhuru Park yesterday, it was the first time the former AG was addressing a political rally.
Ever since he fell from grace in May 1983, Njonjo has always kept away from national politics only opting to call newsrooms when he had something to say — but mostly religious.
Njonjo fell from power after a well-choreographed departure that climaxed at Gusii Stadium where President Moi warned of a "traitor" who wanted to usurp power by unorthodox means on the afternoon of May 8, 1983.
Njonjo had by then been accused by a camp that coalesced around Kibaki of undermining the then Vice-President and it was sweet music for Kibaki when Njonjo fell.
It was Kibaki who twisted the knife deeper in parliament when he said: "You do not blacken the other fellow for you to look clean…" a clear betrayal of the man who supported his elevation into Moi’s Vice-Presidency when several Kiambu mandarins favoured either Dr Julius Gikonyo Kiano, Jeremiah Nyagah or Mbiyu Koinange.
As Njonjo tumbled to the ground it was Kibaki who accelerated the fall denouncing him and publicly saying that it was not the community under siege — "but one person".
Whether Njonjo has ever forgiven Kibaki for that is not clear.
Neither Kibaki nor his friends supported Njonjo when on May 17, 1983 Moi called a Kanu National Governing Council meeting and cut the life of Parliament by one year.
and especially
It was Kibaki who twisted the knife deeper in parliament when he said: "You do not blacken the other fellow for you to look clean…" a clear betrayal of the man who supported his elevation into Moi’s Vice-Presidency when several Kiambu mandarins favoured either Dr Julius Gikonyo Kiano, Jeremiah Nyagah or Mbiyu Koinange.
Bwana Kamau,
The secret they never want to share with you is that unlike your keens, the rest of the 41 tribes cant stomach their people being associated with Judah. Two weeks if I told you a story of a man who felt so thirsty such that he couldnt help it but go to a poor man's home to quench his thirst only to steal the man's brewed poridge.
He got drunk under the influence of the poridge that he started abusing this poor neighbour how he couldnt even afford sugar to sweeten his porridge.
Whats my story? With people like you around the "fence-seater", no wonder he lost a simple referendum.
Just think why he won the main vote on a wheelchair but lost a simple vote while fully walking.
I respect and follow your articles with a lot of interest but too bad somehow you appear too out of touch and arrogant. Why do I say so? You always talk of too many ifs and too many scenario this scenario that. When? When you talk of how you gonna throw orange that side and do this. For once think of what the govt will do to the electorate.
We are watching.
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Post by kamalet on Nov 28, 2005 9:04:18 GMT 3
Job/Adongo,
Frankly, if you wish to know, I have very little respect for politicians irrespective of who they are. I shall have no reverence for a half-blind toothless politician whose name I am too lazy to type in the same way I shall have no respect for an old senile half literate father of a wannabe president. So you take your reverence of these nitwits and.....
That out of the way,
All you needed was read what I wrote, and then respond along the lines of the thread. The referendum as far as I am concerned was about a draft Kenyans decided was bad, and that should be just it. This chest-thumping by kleptomaniacs and political agitators is what's angering me. So quit reminding me what happened as I already know!!
50cents,
You ask an intriguing question about Njonjo's involvement. 2 things you should have noticed was the presence of Stanley Githunguri who was the lead financier of the ODM campaign. If you would look deeper, then you will know that these two were the representatives of Moi in that campaign. I do not have a problem with Moi per se as he belongs to that same group I described above.
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Post by miguna on Nov 28, 2005 18:05:04 GMT 3
There he is, meeting Kibaki. Now go ahead and explain why, Kamau, before I "eat" you again.
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Post by job on Nov 28, 2005 22:35:15 GMT 3
Kamale,
I'll quote you ,......"So quit reminding me what happened as I already know".........
I know how bitter and angry you may be feeling, but take it easy and just accept that reality. This referendum defeat for Kibaki is already entrenched in our civics and is destined for Kenya's history books. So you may just reconsider your statement about....people quiting to remind you that,......you will certainly hear that repeatedly for years to come, get used to it.
As for Njonjo and Githunguri representing Moi in the ODM rally, and Moi's successive meetings with Kibaki,....I'll repeat that these are just time buying, coat hanging survival tactics by Kibaki with an agenda now slowly emerging.
That is: Distract focus from the Katiba & ODM momentum by keeping people guessing, speculating, debating on succession, questioning unity, etc etc. One thing for sure, he is keen on dividing ODM. The public is being conveniently shifted into discussing succession politics instead of Katiba and calls for immediate elections. Let's see.
Miguna,
Yes I agree with your scenario's on the other thread. The succession talks also seem to be featuring prominently in the Moi/Kibaki talks. Which means Kibaki maybe realizing he may soon be better off keeping away from active politics and all the troubles that come with it. Just when, I don't know. But he wants to cut a deal before then, he may want to insist on finishing his term, but I don't know whether the 2007 polls are part of any talks.
I'll repeat Moi is now wedged in between the ODM on one hand, and Kibaki on the other, trying to see which side offers him better security. Kibaki is besieged and finds solace talking to Moi now and probably trying to cook for some trouble in ODM to divide it.
Is ODM (KANU/LDP) unity threatened? I think not. Is LDP unity threatened? Most likely not. Is KANU internal unity threatened? Probably a little bit.
Uhuru's overall influence in KANU may have been undemined by his thrashing by Kibaki in Central. He may seek the help of Githunguri, Njonjo and maybe Moi to reclaim his stature, hence be better placed within the ODM heirachy.
Bear in mind that Gideon Moi may feel better placed with Uhuru in a high position, but Ruto (irrespective of his past) has cut himself a niche in Rift valley politics as an undisputed and popular leader, ready to stand alone and not under someone's shadow within KANU. It is worthy noting that Raila has cleverly kept Ruto very close to him just incase a divisive card is pulled out,...he'll pull his own to ODM's side.
Heightening public speculation by playing mock succession games is a direct strategy to challenge ODM unity, but I can tell you that the most powerful KANU politician in ODM currently may not be its Chairman. Ruto is equally ambitious and ready to play game since he commands a sizeable voting bloc independent of Moi's clout.
Hence there's a big catch. Rift Valley voting bloc is therefore not necessarily transferable at the whims of Moi if it is transferred into the wrong hands at succession.
Moi's influence was immense in the Rift Valley ODM support, but he didn't get as much enthusistic backing in 2002 when he fronted Uhuru for President. Infact there was some disquiet and a relatively low voter turnout for Uhuru's support.
Careers are built or destroyed by decisions such as the ones yet to be made in the next few weeks. Aspiring Presidents or PM's in future should slow down on lobbying and caucusing for succession-fronting, by using old men in board room meetings. That's not a national priority in the voters eyes.
The moment people realize that Njonjo and Githunguri maybe using Moi (or vice versa,..Moi using them) indirectly trying to steal the thunder off the ODM momentum for another sinister motive,(succession plans) there could be a public backlash.
This plan B or C is closely being watched but ODM assures all is well for them in all that. If Moi (& Githunguri/Njonjo) is trying to convince Kibaki to retire soon and hand over to someone who can protect both (maybe Uhuru) through the ODM, let him be aware that the public will soon engage themselves in the debate. They are the ones to decide to reject such a project or endorse it, period.
The public have no problem with any of the ODM personalities so long as the desired constitution reforms COME FIRST; which includes devolution, revision of clause on Presidential elections, sharing of executive power, provision of a senate to protect devolved government units, fair /equitable sharing of resources etc,.....which should first be re-negotiated. It may then not matter very much ( hopeful probability) about which personalities steer Kenya in future.
If Kibaki can't call for immediate elections, then let him tell us right now, how he intends to work with the ODM to engineer the birth of the acceptable Katiba. The public has grown tired of begging and cajoling insincere leaders.
Back to the diversionary talks getting hyped publicity,....Kibaki may not necessarily outwit Moi in such talks. Moi will not certainly want to create the impression that he is trying to steal the ODM momentum to negotiate for his individual survival too, at the expense of the greater public.
I'll also predict that the politically alert Moi, will not want to enter into any deals without consulting and agreeing with Raila and the rest of the ODM top team (Kalonzo,etc) on an acceptable position.
I'll read more from Moi's language (which is unfortunately difficult ) than Kibaki's to get a clearer picture.
Thats my 2 cents.
peace.
unedited.
Job.
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Post by adongo12345 on Nov 29, 2005 20:31:54 GMT 3
From Kamale
"Frankly, if you wish to know, I have very little respect for politicians irrespective of who they are. I shall have no reverence for a half-blind toothless politician whose name I am too lazy to type in the same way I shall have no respect for an old senile half literate father of a wannabe president. So you take your reverence of these nitwits and....."
Go easy Kamale. There is no need to insult folks like double O. Between you and me I bet you millions of Kenyans probably have more value for a blind toothless and dead Jaramogi than some living Kamale with twenty eyes and a hundred teeth. Just so you know.
Anyway let get to the basics.
The Narc government that Kibaki has been trashing for three years is finished. He can drag whoever he wants in there including Moi if he wants to but the so called second liberation is safely in the cemetary where it belongs.
Secondly Kibaki is completely confused. It was funny to read the PPS blasting the press for indicating that Kibaki was ready to fly to Kabarak to meet Moi. You would think the PPS has more urgent things to do when the government is in a coma.
Third the Kibaki 2nd term dream is dead and it couldn't have come at a worse time and in a worse way for the MKM crooks who really are the reason Kenyans are on Kibaki's case.
Kibaki has two clear options; govern the country after negotiations with ODM focused on the constitution or call elections and go home. If I was him I would choose the later, but I suspect he will choose the former.
It is interesting the desperate moves. The most stupid move was Kibaki banning the ODM rallies. But he realized by dissolving the cabinet and messing up parliament his government and his MP supporters have become invisible leaving the political space for the ODM who are very good in hogging the limelight. And they have an agenda and the masses are yelling "Uchaguzi, Uchaguzi", which is only likely to get louder.
Kibaki's options are getting very limited and I think I can understand the irritation of the Kibaki damu supporters.
But let's keep cool heads and sort out the mess. The country is going nowhere and neither are the problems.
Adongo
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Post by kamalet on Nov 30, 2005 8:49:55 GMT 3
Adongo,
There is little difference between Kibaki the man you do not like and Odinga whom you think I insult. They are all politicians not any different to commercial sex workers and I have very little time for them - frankly.
But why should you be overly worried about what Kibaki is doing or not doing? According to you, the ODM have it all covered and nothing will stop them, even Kibaki!! should you not try and enter some caution here?
As far as I am concerned, my interventions in these forums cannot influence public policy and only serve a debating value. Hence if Kibaki wants to go for a 2nd term and you think it is dead, I really do not mind.
But here is my concern. I have a business to run, and the political temperatures if raised have a potential of hurting this business. I have 4 people with 12 dependants who rely on the business that I run and this is what concerns me Adongo - not what Raila or Kibaki do or who they sleep with. So when we are coming out of doldrums and business picks up, any of the noise these ODM hoodlums make, they could hurt my business. Essentially, my support for Kibaki is only premised on the business environment he has enable for us - I no longer have plans to relocate the business elsewhere!
Unlike the politicians who will still collect their unworked for 500k, we do work hard, and my wish is that many more people did so and stopped following these politicians like dogs in heat.
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Post by aeichener on Nov 30, 2005 19:55:58 GMT 3
Adongo, They are all politicians not any different to commercial sex workers I RESENT such an uncalled and unwarranted implied insult of sex workers, and ask you to desist from it in future. Thank you, Alexander |
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Post by adongo12345 on Nov 30, 2005 21:33:03 GMT 3
Kamale;
Please don't put words in my mouth. I can speak for myself as you very well know. Where did I talk about the ODM having it made? Having what made? Anyway I have given my opinion about the ODM in the appropriate thread.
Let me just address one issue.
Apparently you are worried that those "ODM hoodlums" are going to disrupt your humble business endevours that support some Kenyan families to make a living. That is a good point.
The trouble with middle class arrogance is that sometimes we think, the rest of society is a nuisance we just have to put up with if they behave. Some of us would prefer that the masses with no jobs to speak of, no land to work on, no money to live on and no hope for the future, kept their grumbling at a minimum low and suffer quietly without bothering us busy people.
Well sorry if the peoples struggles and demands for hope, for a future and for a better Kenya for all is bugging you and disturbing your business. But surely you don't suppose people are going to stop fighting for their rights just so as not to bother you or anybody else.
If you want the political temperatures lowered campaign against any attempt by the Kibaki government to curtail freedom of assembly and of expression. 6 million Kenyans went to the polls on Nov 21, 2005 and it was all peaceful and I am sure business was booming.
No Kamale, it is the Kibaki hoodlums(police and GSU) that could mess up your business, not humble Wanjiku. Direct your concerns appropriately.
Adongo
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Post by kamalet on Dec 1, 2005 8:41:50 GMT 3
Adongo, They are all politicians not any different to commercial sex workers I RESENT such an uncalled and unwarranted implied insult of sex workers, and ask you to desist from it in future. Thank you, Alexander Alexander, Please allow me not to like politicians as well as commercial sex workers. I am surprised that you are not offering any defence to the insulted politicians!! Kamalet |
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