Steadman Poll is Fundamentally Schizophrenic

[miguna]

STEADMAN POLL IS FUNDAMENTALLY SCHIZOPHRENIC
By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - © 20 December 2005


I am shocked at the publication of another Steadman Group opinion poll debacle. The new poll, as it is reported on the December 21st issue of our newspapers has shed light on one thing – that opinion polling in Kenya is deliberately tailored to achieve narrow parochial ends. The Steadman poll results are neither scientific nor objective. They are also not realistic or representative of the popular opinion of Kenyans. I will show why.

Admittedly, I am neither a statistician nor a public opinion researcher. However, I have basic common sense and an understanding of how one draws specific conclusions from general figures. I am also not ignorant about the vested interests involved in public opinion polling, especially in a country known more for its sectarian divisions and corruption than for its transparency. Opinion polling is also not rocket science.

Take, for instance, the reported results of how Kenyans view their political parties. The first error the Steadman poll committed was to attempt to compare Narc, which is a coalition of more than ten political parties (including LDP), with LDP.

There is absolutely no rational justification or explanation for Steadman to ask Kenyans to rate Narc versus LDP. LDP is part of Narc. If Narc no longer exists (which even President Kibaki has not claimed), the current government would have to be dissolved. In any event, if this question was to be considered valid, then people’s views should also have been sought of Narc versus DP; Narc versus Ford Kenya; Narc versus Ford People; Narc versus Safina; Narc versus Sisi kwa Sisi; Narc versus Kanu. That was not done and there is no explanation why Narc was compared to the LDP. It could only have been for cheap political mischief.

A comprehensive, scientific and objective result of Kenyans’ views on these kinds of comparisons would have produced a better representative result than the one published by Steadman.

However, for the sake of argument, let us examine the Steadman poll results on the popularity of Kenyan political parties and that of their leaders in some detail in order to show that the published results exhibit mythical preconceptions rather than logical, scientific and objective analysis.

The report claims that an oscillating 3-5 percent of Kenyans expressed support for the DP party. It also shows that between 2-3 per cent of Kenyans expressed support for the NAK and Ford Kenya parties. Assuming that we can cut Steadman some slack, this would imply that the remaining Narc under Kibaki – which is essentially NAK, has a claim of between 5-8 percent of popular support.

Steadman also indicates that 25 per cent of Kenyans expressed support for the LDP alone. Kanu is said to have garnered 18 percent of the popular support. In total, both LDP and Kanu – or ODM- is said to have received about 43 per cent of the popular support.

But Steadman seems to be clever in its propaganda. It omitted entirely a comparison between ODM and NAK. We believe that such a comparison would have been more helpful. However, I am also aware of the claim that ODM is an unregistered amorphous gathering. This argument does not have a leg to stand on in view of the fact that ODM is made up of two main political parties in the country, the same way NAK is comprised of the little parties already mentioned. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

Although Steadman does not say it, this means that the ODM has roughly about 43 per cent of the popular support compared to NAK’s 5-8 per cent. If we do not quibble with these figures, they clearly show that ODM is much more popular than NAK.

In fact, the figures show something even more profound - that the LDP is not just the single most popular party in Kenya; it is much more popular than the combined force of DP, Ford Kenya, NPK, Sisi Kwa Sisi, Safina and Ford People. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. This is the kind of analysis required but which is glaringly missing.

But there is something even more shocking in the Steadman poll claim that needs to be exposed.

According to the Steadman poll result, the most favoured presidential candidate is Kalonzo Musyoka of the LDP with about 35 per cent. This is not unreasonable when we consider the popularity of LDP and ODM. What is shocking and completely unbelievable is the claim that one of the most recognized and leading lights in the LDP and ODM, Raila Odinga, did not even qualify to be polled. One has to be residing in the middle of Mars to consider such a scandalous assertion legitimate.

Every Kenyan knows that it is Raila, perhaps more than even Kalonzo that is reputed for most of the LDP and ODM gains. It is both Raila and Kalonzo (and possibly the slow-rising Mudavadi) who have acquired an almost unanimous recognition as leaders of the LDP. As such, if both the LDP and ODM are such favourites among Kenyans, how can it be that the same people would leave out one of its/their penultimate leaders from consideration? Could it possible that someone is trying to perpetuate the unfortunate myth that has been peddled in Kenya for far too long that a Luo cannot be elected president? Are we just beginning to see a deliberate and orchestrated campaign to rig out Raila from the next presidential race?

Like a sick joke, Steadman then claims that the second most popular presidential candidate is Kibaki with about 26 percent.. This is not just very poor opinion polling; it is disastrous. Kibaki is primarily the Chairman of the DP party, which, according to Steadman, can only lay claim to an oscillating number of 3-5 percent. Even if Kibaki is assumed to be the leader of NAK (which he is not, considering that Kombo has never disbanded Ford Kenya and Ngilu still insists on not just being an NPK’s leader, but even Narc’s), he could only claim a maximum of 8 percent popular support. Where did his surplus figures come from?

According to the poll, both NAK and Ford Kenya were considered “peripheral parties” with dismal support from the people. Is it possible that the same people that do not consider these parties inspiring schizophrenically show overwhelming support for the putative leader of such a withering political entity? In my view, this is very unlikely.

To begin with, the logic here is tenuous. Everyone knows that NAK comprises mainly DP, Ford Kenya and NPK. It might have been more helpful if Steadman had polled the popularity of ODM versus NAK, since Narc minus LDP only leaves NAK. It would also have been more helpful to compare the popularity of DP against LDP or Ford Kenya versus LDP. Similarly, it is disingenuous for Steadman to claim that Raila’s support is less than 8 per cent of the popular support in view of a claim that LDP and ODM, in particular, are gaining ground, not losing it.

We hope that Steadman has not concealed some of its results like they did pre-referendum.

The Steadman opinion poll gerrymandering is very dangerous for our country since its main aim appear to be intended at misleading Kenyans with the hope that an anxious and confused population would elect anyone Steadman says is popular as their next president. This is high tech-rigging of the worst kind.
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*The writer is a Barrister & Solicitor in Toronto, Canada

[kamalet]

Going by previous polls, Steadman have proved that they are pretty close to the pulse of the Kenyan people. A week before the referendum, in an unreleased poll result, they actually correctly predicted the voting patterns of Kenyans.

With this in mind, I am inclined to agree with their assessment about the popularity of Kalonzo over Kibaki and this is driven perhaps more by the perception people had about the Kibaki government and his presidency following the referendum debacle. Your rubbishing of the report because Raila could only ganner 4% of the popularity contest is interesting and amusing. Raila perhaps even knows that he is not electable as a president and Kenyans have been that consistent in the polls released over the last couple of years. So it is not a new phenomenon that he could be that lowly rated.

I think Kenyans are more and more starved of good choices for a president if the people they settle for are the likes of Kibaki, Kalonzo and Uhuru.

I looked at the results in a different light especially the response of Kenyans on some of the key demands of ODM. 57% of Kenyans did not agree that there should be snap elections whilst only 6% thought that ODM should lead the review process. Even more interesting was their view that politicians be kept out of the process with 31% calling for experts whilst another 22% preferred the present constitution! I will not even bother with the fact that a majority of Kenyans do not want a prime minister.

Such polling is perhaps good for the country in that it clearly captures the national mood pretty much removed from the media hype. Kibaki now knows what people think of him as president and it behoves upon him to correctly do what they want. As for ODM, they now need to also read the mood of Kenyans and drop some of their unhealthy demands. Kenyans want a new constitution and not empty political rhetoric.

Let the work of building Kenya begin!!

[miguna]

Kamau:

Believe what you want about the Steadman poll. Many people, including yours truly, have never ever believed in their methodology or predictions. You refer to an UNRELEASED poll result. Funny that someone would wait until after the referendum to cry I WAS RIGHT IN MY PREDICTION! Well, they said that too late. We don't take them seriously. We can only judge them by the RESULTS we saw them publish; which was way off truck.

And they are wrong as hell on the percentage of Kenyans who are demanding snap polls. But you actually deliberately refused to read that even Steadm,an conceded that that number was rising quickly since the appointment of the new cabinet.

Enough said. [unedited]

[miguna]

Kamau:

A friend of mine has just privately informed me that the real "reason" for the Steadman poll is to create negative competition and eventual breakup within ODM. You see, with both Uhuru and Kalonzo featured, both will demand to be ODM's torchbearer. And with Mudavadi, Ruto and Raila excluded, Kalonzo and Uhuru may throw up a stink if the "grassroots" elect either of these two as ODM's ortchberer. The same argument holds true of LDP. So, you see the mischief I was alluding to?

I actually believe that my friend has very valid points.
[unedited]

[kichwambaya]

The reason they gave for not releasing the "correct poll" before 11/21 was because they did not want to influence the vote. I wonder what they want to influence with this other "correct poll". They seem to be very concience of their ability to influence with their polls. One wonders if this is the reason why they take polls in the first place-to influence. That is scary. I have seen other polls in the west released a day before voting-without worrying about its influence-just reporting their findings and letting the people do what they want with it.

[kamalet]

miguna said:

Kamau:

A friend of mine has just privately informed me that the real "reason" for the Steadman poll is to create negative competition and eventual breakup within ODM. You see, with both Uhuru and Kalonzo featured, both will demand to be ODM's torchbearer. And with Mudavadi, Ruto and Raila excluded, Kalonzo and Uhuru may throw up a stink if the "grassroots" elect either of these two as ODM's ortchberer. The same argument holds true of LDP. So, you see the mischief I was alluding to?

I actually believe that my friend has very valid points.
[unedited]

That may be true Miguna.....but I would expect that our politicians know how to harness the power of that information by emphasising on the positives! The media today is awash with LDP bigwigs praising the poll that it reflects that LDP is the lead party and they will be pushing for Kalonzo to be president!!

I am of the view that Kenyans are still yet to understand the use and need for such polls - and especially so the politicians!

[johns]

kamalet,

Most of the time i fail to understand the rationale or logic behind your posturing. Dont you find it suspicious when the same steadman poll reports that LDP performs dismally when pitted against NARC and yet the poll places NARC at 26% popularity and 25% for LDP. I wonder if by their own account a 1% difference should be considered dismall?

I tend to agree with Migunas assertion that the main objective of the poll was to continue pounding home misconceived perception that certain people are unelectable.

I just want to posit a question here: How long is this fallacy going to be continued by the ANDUS when kenyans of all sundry appreciated and reciprocated the hard work Railla Odinga did in bringing down your wako mongrel? Do you think kenyans would tune to his message if they thought he was not leadership material? What precisely makes him unelectable to you while Uhuru or Kalonzo is?

(unedited)

[kamalet]

Johns,

A quick suggestion. Just go back and read my post on the poll, re-read it again. If you still struggle with my logic and rationale...just forget it.

Life is bigger than all the politics we discuss here.

[job]

Happy new year folks,

I had a hectic Christmas but this thread cannot go without my 2 cents.

First to Kamale's declaration that Raila is not electable as President, may you go further and quantify the reason(s) why that can not happen? There must be at least one criteria in your mind, which betrays him in his Presidential ambitions . Let it out of your chest, say it,..........for we already know.

Probably, like the folks of Nyeri, who temporarily titled Raila in 2002/3, "Njamba", they would have just fallen short of voting for him due to his,.......................(just fill in the blank, Sir).

Let me tell you what that Raila non-electability myth is. It is a perception. A negative one for that matter. The kind of perception that Steadmans polling company owners, and their political masters, thrive on. The Raila-is-not-electable talk,... may be currently very prevalent within your native Province (1 out of 8), especially right now, post referendum, ...........meaning that Railaphobic perception may be strong there.

The thing is that your backyard perceptions may not sometimes tally with the perceptions of the rest of the nation. Believe it or not, sometimes 7 out of 8 provinces can shock you out of your skin, when you realize they sing from a different hymn book of perceptions.

If you remember the story of opposite perceptions,..... told of the late Dedan Kimathi and the people living around the white settler highlands. In the eyes of the colonialists, he was a terrorist,.....in the eyes of natives, ...he was a freedom fighter and hero.

It just depended on which side of the propaganda divide you belonged, but there were periods of oscillating common-perception, ...at times the Kimathi-terrorist sentiments were overwhelming among the Wabeberu & collaborator families (like Michuki's) yet for longer periods the native freedom fighter-perception, dominated the former. The white propagandists even tried to convince the locals that Kimathi was out to kill them too. Of course it didn't work.

Kenyans are beginning to realize who the real problem is. Many don't think it is Raila like Koigi & co. want them to believe. They know of the Katiba, Ukabila, & Anglo-Leasing stories, where Railaphobic- perception is rummed into heads of the public as coffers are looted dry, Ukabila perpetrated, & an attempt made to impose a fraudulent Katiba ................then what...........then the blame goes to the usual scape-goat Raila, & LDP/ODM. As usual,....and so in conclusion ati what?,.........ati ....he is therefore not electable. Holy Molly!

New realities should be accepted after Kibaki squandered a golden chance to UNIFY Kenya and make us all proud as one family. Kenyans have looked beyond him. They want Katiba guarded institutions that will make that a possibility. Then they want to purge out of office, those they deem unfit & untrustworthy of holding top NATIONAL offices like the Presidency.

Kamale, what may shape the new perception on ground is back to the President himself.
Those that have included select few in their "friends-pretend-bash" otherwise called "government" while excluding other regions may just have to be reminded that we are all part of one family called Kenya, by birth and not as dictated by President so and so.

President Bush of the US against earlier expectations had the sense to include within his lean 15 member cabinet & AG,.....all the races, Black, Caucasian, Jew, Latino, Native Indian, Asian....it was about perception, right?

Watch this play out in the future of Kenya. We will reject the greedy notion of appointing 12 PS's and 1/3 of the Cabinet shamelessly from the President's tribe. That's preposterous and ridiculously selfish. How can a president of a diverse NATION lift his head, walking around wielding State machinery belonging to ALL KENYANS when he opts to impose on the people some merit bereft sycophants, he thinks are more Kenyan than the rest? Don't answer. It's a perception.

Some people ought to be careful when making some blanket declarations reminiscent of the pre-referendum grandious declarations such as the"so-and-so-is unelectable" or "we-have-already-won" perception held by the First Lady on the polling morning,...

This Raila-is-non-electable kind of propagandism may be confined within the borders of one region, yet not others. Enough of that perception.

STEADMAN.

Well, coming to Steadman,.......at least these folks didn't have the nerve to portray a Kibaki-is-still-popular perception. They went ahead to poll him below Kalonzo Musyoka.

Anyway, the bottomline is that there is nothing scientific, nor statistical about this Steadmans polls. There is not a single statistical parameter listed by Steadman, that any credible inference can be drawn from.

That is just a simple self-interest opinion poll, similar to the ones conducted by media outlets, which basically bank on a negligible pool for sampling (statistically insignificant samples), with biased questionnairing, lead-questioning and all forms of meddling/influencing in the full glare. Their objectives are quite obvious, political and economic influencing of public perceptions.

How can you sample a few people from SELECTED districts and call it a national poll? The exclusion of the other districts alone, makes the poll, non- representative, and not national, period. The sample size has to be statistically viable and representative of the total population,...not just picking up a random samp[le of like minded respondents from selected localities and labelling their views NATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC and such authentic sounding terms. Steadman should get real with the Kenyan public who are not too daft, .......we will not allow them to influence our minds with the kind of perception I was referring to above!

Why does Steadman present the respondents with predetermined choices for Presidential candidates while excluding others? Why not for instance just ask a respondent,...Who's your favoured person for the Presidency come the next elections?............and let the respondent him/herself state their choice INDEPENDENTLY? Then proceed to tally ALL the results, not just the top performers.

Who said for instance that Wangari Mathai, James Orengo or David Mwenje are not interested in running for the Presidency? Why doesn't Steadman list them as possible choices if that's their style of polling?

My point is that this practice is a statistical flaw. Designing a questionnaire for an opinion survey must ensure independence & autonomy for all possible responses. How the data is analysed or interpreted is another matter but Steadman is not credible just as I asserted in earlier polls.

You may be probably shocked at the results if these guys let people independently respond unbiased or unrestricted. Even more shocking would be the results carried from a representative national sample. Some of those people listed as having support in two digits may not even qualify for 10 points (or %).

As Miguna correctly argues, the predetermined choices are deliberately set out for a number of cunningly strategic reasons bordering on perception.

Once Kenyans have been subjected to a narrowed pool of likely Presidential candidates, CHOSEN by STEADMAN,....Kibaki, Kalonzo, & Uhuru,....Steadman will release these polls intermitently, say every three months, until Kenyans will have this STUCK perception that only those three candidates are viable Presidential material.

This is a psychological and selective "marketing" or fronting of Presidential candidates. It is done even in the USA where some media outlets just openly give out biased polls, showing their prefered candidate leading in such polls, creating the false perception of artificial popularity, just to give the candidate some headstart, since many gullible voters can join in supporting him/her, just based on such polls.

Since under NARC, we live in the world of "you never know",....let me give a speculation to illustrate how dangerous it is for the public to rely on such influenced false perceptions.

What happens if say something mysteriously happens to Kalonzo just prior to 2007. Kenyans who would have been previously stuck with the influenced perception that it was either of the trio ( Kibaki, Uhuru, or Kalonzo) for the Presidency,.... would now have a reduced pool of two favoured candidates, Uhuru and Kibaki just prior to the polls. Marketing other late entrants may then prove quite a task.

Steadman is simply trying to shut out other candidates and present to you their preferences for polling.

Steadman is also trying to lie to the public by parading uncomparable variables for comparizon. In a beauty contest for girls, you only parade the beautiful girls,.....how do you dare bring within the parade, a donkey for comparizon, however beautiful it is? If you are comparing popularity of parties do just that hence compare LDP, KANU, DP, Ford-K, Ford-P, Sisi Kwa Sisi etc and don't SNEAK in a donkey-Coalition called NARC in the same choices.
Enough of the Steadmans joke.

FORD-K

Lastly, I got this interesting excerpt from the Daily Nation, where Ford-K MP, Dr. Kibunguchi was addressing his Lugari constituents.
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Addressing his Lugari constituents during a home-coming party to celebrate his elevation to the Cabinet, Dr Kibunguchy said the country was opposed to having a presidential candidate from Central Province.

"The mood on the ground is very clear: That people are opposed to another president coming from Central Province. The next one should come from a different tribe apart from the one in power," he said, adding that the results of the November 21 referendum showed that Kenyans were not willing to be led by a person from Central Province.............................................
**********************************************************
Well, we know it is actually Kombo speaking here. Is this the official Ford-K (read Musikari Kombo) position with regard to 2007 elections?

Being famous for speaking through proxies like Kibunguchi, Khalwale and Shi-tanda, Kombo is entangling himself here,... the same man just said the other day that the referendum results had no bearing whatsoever on Kibaki's nor his government's popularity per-se. He was indeed quickly supported by Shitanda on that.

That was immediately after his nightlong cabinet-seeking sojourn (the so called "consultation and negotiation") in State House.

So now, after that succesful blackmail, he is yet to unveil the real blackmail,...quite a big one. Kombo & Ford-K, after securing several Cabinet slots, have now "suddenly" discovered that the referendum results actually have a lot of ethnic implications come the next elections- .....meaning, it's bad news for Kibaki's tribe but actually good news for Kombo's in 2007. Yaani the inference is,......it's his turn? Heavens!

The guy has supposedly forgotten that he is indeed part and parcel of Kibaki's banana government, he can't seperate himself from that reality, he can't attempt to shove Kibaki aside,..he is indeed stuck with him,...period.

Besides, as usual, the late Wamalwas name has to be invoked whenever Kombo is bargaining for anything. Can't these guys leave the soul of the departed gentleman out of this?

The conclusion folks, .....ati it is Kombo's turn to rule Kenya,....so says Kibunguchi. Wow!

No wonder Kombo supported the Wako (banana) katiba ,.........imagine the powers he's day dreaming of wielding come 2007. I wish this guy wakes up to reality soon.

unedited.

Job.