Post by Onyango Oloo on Dec 27, 2005 21:09:32 GMT 3
Looming Gang Fights in the Post-Referendum NAK Clique
A Crystal Ball Gazing Session by Onyango Oloo in Nairobi
On Boxing Day 2005, newly minted assistant minister Dr. Enock Kibunguchy expressed his deep appreciation to Mwai Kibaki by jabbing, or to be more accurate, stabbing the Kenyan President in the eye with a newly sharpened pencil.
Now, I do not literally mean that Kibunguchy grabbed an actual pencil and poked the Othaya MP in the iris.
But you know what I mean.
I am referring to this newspaper report:
Step down for Kombo, MP urges President
Story by NATION Correspondent
Publication Date: 12/27/2005
President Kibaki should step down in favour of Mr. Musikari Kombo in the 2007 General Election, an assistant minister has said.
Dr Enock Kibunguchy of the Health ministry said Ford-K, a partner in Narc, will field the Local Government minister as its presidential candidate.
Addressing his Lugari constituents during a home-coming party to celebrate his elevation to the Cabinet, Dr Kibunguchy said the country was opposed to having a presidential candidate from Central Province.
"The mood on the ground is very clear: That people are opposed to another president coming from Central Province. The next one should come from a different tribe apart from the one in power," he said, adding that the results of the November 21 referendum showed that Kenyans were not willing to be led by a person from Central Province.
Dr Kibunguchy asked President Kibaki to honour the 2002 agreement he had with Mr. Michael Wamalwa to step down after serving for five years.
According to him, the President, Health minister Charity Ngilu and Mr. Wamalwa had a gentleman's agreement before the last elections that Mr. Kibaki would lead for one term. Mr. Wamalwa died in 2003 while serving as vice-president.
"There was an agreement among the three leaders that Mr. Wamalwa was supposed to succeed President Kibaki after five years and because Wamalwa is dead, Mr. Kombo is in his place," he said.
The Lugari MP also warned candidates from Central Province against vying for the State House job because the community will be isolated by voters.
Ford-K, he said, was preparing its chairman to contest the presidency and was counting on Central Province for support.
A few days prior to that, another political doctor, the one and only Kilemi Mwiria had led a group of Meru MPs in denouncing Imenti power barons Mwiraria and Kiraitu:
Mwiraria, Kiraitu under siege
By AGATHA KING’OO, Kenya Times
Finance Minister David Mwiraria and his Energy counterpart Kiraitu Murungi yesterday came under scathing attack from seven Meru Members of Parliament for influencing development projects in the area.
The legislators also accused the two influential ministers of driving a wedge between their community and other Kenyans.
Even though they did not directly mention the names of the two Ministers in their statement read by Education Assistant Minister Dr Kilemi Mwiria at Parliament Buildings, the MPs blamed the duo of discriminating against some constituencies in matters of development in the region. They claimed that the two ministers gave priority to those development projects that they had interest in.
The statement was signed by Dr Mwiria, Assistant Ministers Raphael Muriungi (Tourism), Petkay Miriti (Trade) and MPs Kirugi M’Mukindia (Imenti Central) Peter Munya (Tigania East) Francis Kagwima (Tharaka) and Maoka Maore (Ntonyiri). They said the two ministers who are seen as close to President Mwai Kibaki, were the only ones consulted when decisions affecting the Meru community are made.
They said attempts to book any appointment with President Kibaki to discuss development projects in the area have been futile.
“When we ask for an appointment with the President to explain our situation, we are always blocked by some State House gate keepers,” they said. The leaders said they were watching the political happenings in the country to determine what alliances were appropriate for the long term interests of the Meru community.
Dr Mwiria said the community had been demonised by other Kenyans because of reckless utterances and actions of some leaders close to the President.
He said they were holding consultations with grassroots leaders in the region and would give their next cause of action.
Reacting to questions from the press on the recent cabinet appointments, Munya said few leaders from the community had been appointed yet there were many qualified people who can serve in the Kibaki administration.
The leaders criticized plans by President Kibaki to appoint a panel of 10 experts to jump-start a new constitution.
Munya dismissed the plan as a waste of time and resources arguing there should be a law in place to guide the process.
“Nothing will take off until parliamentarians and parties are involved to give legitimacy to the process. It is sad that the President has not learned from the previous happenings,” he said.
M’Mukindia called for the reconstitution of the president’s team of advisers saying they were misleading him. They further accused the leaders of turning the country against the community through their arrogance and selfishness while arrogating themselves the status of the community’s spokesmen.
“Kenyans have been made to believe that once certain Meru politicians who represent a minority have been consulted, all of us have been consulted. Yet those left out comprise seven out of the nine wider Meru MPs,” they said.
The seven who claimed to be the legitimate leaders of the Meru community said that no one should assume the role of Meru spokesman. They claimed that the government has been discriminating against certain constituencies when it comes to financing of development projects.
Citing Mati road, Chongoria/Githongo and Meru/Mikinduri/Maua roads which had been listed as priority projects in the country, they said the government had now shifted attention to village roads in constituencies of the two powerful politicians.
They said land adjudication in the area had also stalled despite promises of immediate action by the President and Lands Minister Amos Kimunya.
“A good example relates to the provision of road services. Two key roads have perpetually been listed among priority projects in the country, yet village roads in constituencies of powerful politicians in Meru have been prioritized,” they said.
“The President’s team of advisers is out of touch with the reality and they are bound to lead him into making more serious mistakes,” he said.
The leaders vowed to vote for issues that represent the best interests of the people even if these issues had the full support of the government.
Kenya Times, December 23, 2005.
www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=34122
Waswahili walisema: Shukrani ya punda ni mashizi.
David Mwenje is not satisfied with being a mere waziri msaidizi. He wants the full works, corner office and all.
Instead of chortling at the rising squabbles within the MV Mgomba wa Ndizi, I will endeavour to offer a quick analytical take.
Many years ago, the brilliant Vietnamese revolutionary strategist Le Duan said:
“... Far from pinning our hopes on antagonisms within the ranks of the enemy, we are fully aware that the development of these contradictions and the extent to which they be capitalized upon are in the last analysis determined by the strength of the revolution. The experience of all genuine popular revolutions shows that the stronger the revolutionary forces become and the higher the revolutionary tide rises, the more the enemy’s ranks are torn by contradictions and are likely to split. Ultimately the time comes when these conflicts have grown so exacerbated as to render impossible all compromise between the various enemy factions. This constitutes one of the unmistakable signs of the maturity of the revolutionary situation. The revolution then breaks out and the enemy’s rule is overthrown in decisive battles....The victory of the revolution depends primarily on a correct determination of the general orientation and strategic objective, as well as the specific orientation and objective for each period. But just as important as defining the orientation and objective is the problem of how to carry them into effect once such decisions are made. What road should be followed? What forms should be adopted? What measures should be used? Experience has shown that a revolutionary movement may mark time, or even fail, not for lack of clearly defined orientations and objectives, but essentially because there have been no appropriate principles and methods of revolutionary action. Methods of revolutionary action are devised to defeat the enemy of the revolution, and in the most advantageous way, so that the revolution may attain its ends as quickly as possible. Here one also needs wisdom as well as courage; it is not only a science, but also an art. Decisions over methods of revolutionary action require, more than in any other field, that the revolutionary maintain the highest creative spirit. Revolution is creation; it cannot succeed without imagination and ingenuity. There has never been nor will there ever be a unique formula for making a revolution that is suited to all situations. One given method may be adaptable to a certain country but unsuitable in another. A correct method in certain times and circumstances may be erroneous in other situations. Everything depends on the concrete historical conditions..... It is a matter of principle that either in the daily policies or in the practice of revolutionary struggle... a revolutionary should never lose sight of the final goal. If one considers the fight for small daily gains and immediate targets as ‘everything’ and views the final goal as ‘nothing’... then one displays the worst kind of opportunism which can only result in keeping the popular masses in eternal servitude. However, it is by no means sufficient to comprehend only the final objective. While keeping in mind the revolutionary goal, the art of revolutionary leadership lies in knowing how to win judiciously step by step. Revolution is the work of millions of popular masses standing up to overthrow the ruling classes, which command powerful means of violence together with other material and spiritual forces. That is why a revolution is always a long-term process. From the initial steps to the final victory, a revolution necessarily goes through many difficult and complex stages of struggle full of twists and bends, clearing one obstacle after another and gradually changing the relation of forces between the revolution and the counter-revolution until overwhelming superiority is achieved over the ruling classes...”
- Le Duan, “The Vietnamese Revolution: Fundamental Problems and Essential Tasks, New World Paperbacks, New York, 1971, pp22-27.
Kenyans who are interested in fundamental change in this country should not pin their hopes on the fallout between the Orange and the Banana camps or read too much in the current war of words within NAK.
As we saw recently some of these "conflicts" are akin to lovers tiffs that are often quickly resolved with a caress, a hug, a hickie or a full-throttle French kiss.
Who would have thought that Prof. Kivutha Kibwana would have crawled back to the bosom of Kibaki after haughtily declaring that having thought things through, he had decided that his best bet lay in serving Kenyans as a back bencher?
Who would have foreseen our high and mighty paragon of principle Musikari Kombo fall down on all fours to lap up the crumbs left over from the Mount Kenya Mafia’s plum appointments after ranting and raving about not being consulted?
And do we hear even a slight whimper from Mama Rainbow herself these days?
Was she the same person who was threatening fire and brimstone if all the NARC constituent parties were not brought back to the negotiating table?
Personally, I will not be at all surprised to see in tomorrow’s papers an abject recantation and retraction from a delirious praise singing Daktari Kibunguchy at pains to "clarify" that it is those pesky Kenyan journalists AGAIN who maliciously "misquoted" him.
And the whole Meru cat fight may just be an opening salvo for the Tigania, Tharaka, Chogoria, Nyambene,Igembe etc sub-groups and affiliated communities of the greater Ameru to scoop up more spoils for their particular ethnic enclave- after all they have learned from Kombo and Ngilu that tribal blackmail is very effective with Mwai Kibaki:
All you have to do is sulk and sigh heavily for three days, with your back turned and head lowered as you trace the map of Nigeria with your big toe on the tarmac outside State House.
Having said that, it must be acknowledged that these public spats within a family which has been presumably "left alone in peace" by the departed LDP crew points to an undercurrent of instability that does NOT bode well for the future of democratic development in Kenya.
For all intents and purposes, the State House has been reduced to one giant political Gikomba market where politicians are bought and sold like the white goat I won for Xmas simply by drinking two beers at one of the Kengele's outlets and filling out a form (I am not kidding: by the time I showed up for the party at Buru Buru Phase I at around 3:30 pm this last Sunday after spending some precious family time with my favourite auntie and her grown sons and daughters somewhere in Eastlands, I could detect from the skin pinned to dry in the front yard and the chunks of meat huddling in the aromatic biriyani dish that the former live goat had suddenly gone kaput, a sacrifice to the carnivorous appetites of our collective Luo, Gikuyu and Dawida fellow revelers).
This Soko M.jinga quality at Ikulu has lowered the aura, awe and hush hush trepidation with which millions of Kenyans, including those fawning sycophants used to regard the Presidency.
Put more bluntly, Mwai Kibaki has lowered the dignity of the Presidency in the course of further tribalizing Kenyan national politics.
Now we know that both Mzee Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi were ruthless neo-colonial tyrants, but I can bet my very last kobole that the ongoing spectacle of fake braggadocio among court poets looking for favours would have been completely unthinkable.
What Kenyans are likely to witness is a worsening degeneration of what passes for Kenyan national politics as these wanasiasa dispense with all pretence of serving the wananchi who voted them to parliament.
A paradoxical development is in the offing: as the NAK tribal cabal consolidates its shaky rule, the shaky marriage of political convenience will hurtle towards the inevitable divorce court drama.
Looking at FORD-Kenya for example, the tribal and misguided political ambitions of Musikari Kombo for Abaluhya supremacy are being openly mocked by the opportunistic self-seekers like Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi and Dr. Newton Kulundu.
In FORD-People, Mzee Nyachae will continue receding into irrelevance as his Abagusii fellow tribes men and tribeswomen wonder publicly and loudly what he is doing in Kibaki’s government if he cannot protect people like Ongwae, Ogongo and Mongere.
Within the NPK vehicle, Charity Ngilu will have to come to terms with the political dominance of Kalonzo Musyoka in all her former political strongholds.
Even Raphael Tuju must be wondering quietly what he did to the Mount Kenya Mafia to deserve the vicious slap he received recently when his confidant, aide and pal James Rege was turfed out when Kibaki made his notorious reshuffle.
The pro-Kibaki Coast MPs, especially the Mijikenda contingent will sooner or latter wake up to the fact that they are just so many temporary pawns to be used by Kibaki’s back room boys for short term advantage before being discarded like used Kleenex.
The much feared edifice of the so called Mount Kenya Mafia is crumbling from within to reveal, not a united inter-tribal bloc, but rather a fractious conglomeration being torn asunder by competing personal and regional agendas.
Even within his own immediate family, President Kibaki will have to grapple with the competing pledges of loyalty coming from his two wives who each have arrogated themselves as unofficial spokeswomen and defenders of the NAK regime.
Taking into account that this fallout started IMMEDIATELY after the LDP was thrown out of the very coalition they helped steer to electoral victory three years ago, one wonders if the NAK gang will have ample time to get its act together and regroup in time to squeak past the Orange Democratic Movement in the next big showdown of political clout within the Kenyan mainstream.
My crystal ball sees the NAK gang breaking up into smaller ganglets none of which will be strong enough to carry their own home turf, leave alone make a dent in the 2007 parliamentary and presidential elections.
The 2005 constitutional referendum was the trailer. The 2007 elections will be the feature presentation which will bear witness to the annihilation of the NAK team from the Kenyan political landscape. In the aftermath of that election, I see FORD-Kenya splintered into at least two factions and FORD-People wiped out as a political force in Kisii land. The pragmatic opportunists in DP, Safina and other Mount Kenya based parties will wait until the second half of 2006 to ditch the NAK sinking ship. Do not be surprised to see Njenga Karume back in KANU.
Progressive Kenyans should see the next two years as valuable breathing space in which to organize a progressive left leaning national democratic movement- that is not shy about making tactical and strategic alliance with some of these mainstream players.
Let me end it there for today, ama?
Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
A Crystal Ball Gazing Session by Onyango Oloo in Nairobi
On Boxing Day 2005, newly minted assistant minister Dr. Enock Kibunguchy expressed his deep appreciation to Mwai Kibaki by jabbing, or to be more accurate, stabbing the Kenyan President in the eye with a newly sharpened pencil.
Now, I do not literally mean that Kibunguchy grabbed an actual pencil and poked the Othaya MP in the iris.
But you know what I mean.
I am referring to this newspaper report:
Step down for Kombo, MP urges President
Story by NATION Correspondent
Publication Date: 12/27/2005
President Kibaki should step down in favour of Mr. Musikari Kombo in the 2007 General Election, an assistant minister has said.
Dr Enock Kibunguchy of the Health ministry said Ford-K, a partner in Narc, will field the Local Government minister as its presidential candidate.
Addressing his Lugari constituents during a home-coming party to celebrate his elevation to the Cabinet, Dr Kibunguchy said the country was opposed to having a presidential candidate from Central Province.
"The mood on the ground is very clear: That people are opposed to another president coming from Central Province. The next one should come from a different tribe apart from the one in power," he said, adding that the results of the November 21 referendum showed that Kenyans were not willing to be led by a person from Central Province.
Dr Kibunguchy asked President Kibaki to honour the 2002 agreement he had with Mr. Michael Wamalwa to step down after serving for five years.
According to him, the President, Health minister Charity Ngilu and Mr. Wamalwa had a gentleman's agreement before the last elections that Mr. Kibaki would lead for one term. Mr. Wamalwa died in 2003 while serving as vice-president.
"There was an agreement among the three leaders that Mr. Wamalwa was supposed to succeed President Kibaki after five years and because Wamalwa is dead, Mr. Kombo is in his place," he said.
The Lugari MP also warned candidates from Central Province against vying for the State House job because the community will be isolated by voters.
Ford-K, he said, was preparing its chairman to contest the presidency and was counting on Central Province for support.
A few days prior to that, another political doctor, the one and only Kilemi Mwiria had led a group of Meru MPs in denouncing Imenti power barons Mwiraria and Kiraitu:
Mwiraria, Kiraitu under siege
By AGATHA KING’OO, Kenya Times
Finance Minister David Mwiraria and his Energy counterpart Kiraitu Murungi yesterday came under scathing attack from seven Meru Members of Parliament for influencing development projects in the area.
The legislators also accused the two influential ministers of driving a wedge between their community and other Kenyans.
Even though they did not directly mention the names of the two Ministers in their statement read by Education Assistant Minister Dr Kilemi Mwiria at Parliament Buildings, the MPs blamed the duo of discriminating against some constituencies in matters of development in the region. They claimed that the two ministers gave priority to those development projects that they had interest in.
The statement was signed by Dr Mwiria, Assistant Ministers Raphael Muriungi (Tourism), Petkay Miriti (Trade) and MPs Kirugi M’Mukindia (Imenti Central) Peter Munya (Tigania East) Francis Kagwima (Tharaka) and Maoka Maore (Ntonyiri). They said the two ministers who are seen as close to President Mwai Kibaki, were the only ones consulted when decisions affecting the Meru community are made.
They said attempts to book any appointment with President Kibaki to discuss development projects in the area have been futile.
“When we ask for an appointment with the President to explain our situation, we are always blocked by some State House gate keepers,” they said. The leaders said they were watching the political happenings in the country to determine what alliances were appropriate for the long term interests of the Meru community.
Dr Mwiria said the community had been demonised by other Kenyans because of reckless utterances and actions of some leaders close to the President.
He said they were holding consultations with grassroots leaders in the region and would give their next cause of action.
Reacting to questions from the press on the recent cabinet appointments, Munya said few leaders from the community had been appointed yet there were many qualified people who can serve in the Kibaki administration.
The leaders criticized plans by President Kibaki to appoint a panel of 10 experts to jump-start a new constitution.
Munya dismissed the plan as a waste of time and resources arguing there should be a law in place to guide the process.
“Nothing will take off until parliamentarians and parties are involved to give legitimacy to the process. It is sad that the President has not learned from the previous happenings,” he said.
M’Mukindia called for the reconstitution of the president’s team of advisers saying they were misleading him. They further accused the leaders of turning the country against the community through their arrogance and selfishness while arrogating themselves the status of the community’s spokesmen.
“Kenyans have been made to believe that once certain Meru politicians who represent a minority have been consulted, all of us have been consulted. Yet those left out comprise seven out of the nine wider Meru MPs,” they said.
The seven who claimed to be the legitimate leaders of the Meru community said that no one should assume the role of Meru spokesman. They claimed that the government has been discriminating against certain constituencies when it comes to financing of development projects.
Citing Mati road, Chongoria/Githongo and Meru/Mikinduri/Maua roads which had been listed as priority projects in the country, they said the government had now shifted attention to village roads in constituencies of the two powerful politicians.
They said land adjudication in the area had also stalled despite promises of immediate action by the President and Lands Minister Amos Kimunya.
“A good example relates to the provision of road services. Two key roads have perpetually been listed among priority projects in the country, yet village roads in constituencies of powerful politicians in Meru have been prioritized,” they said.
“The President’s team of advisers is out of touch with the reality and they are bound to lead him into making more serious mistakes,” he said.
The leaders vowed to vote for issues that represent the best interests of the people even if these issues had the full support of the government.
Kenya Times, December 23, 2005.
www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=34122
Waswahili walisema: Shukrani ya punda ni mashizi.
David Mwenje is not satisfied with being a mere waziri msaidizi. He wants the full works, corner office and all.
Instead of chortling at the rising squabbles within the MV Mgomba wa Ndizi, I will endeavour to offer a quick analytical take.
Many years ago, the brilliant Vietnamese revolutionary strategist Le Duan said:
“... Far from pinning our hopes on antagonisms within the ranks of the enemy, we are fully aware that the development of these contradictions and the extent to which they be capitalized upon are in the last analysis determined by the strength of the revolution. The experience of all genuine popular revolutions shows that the stronger the revolutionary forces become and the higher the revolutionary tide rises, the more the enemy’s ranks are torn by contradictions and are likely to split. Ultimately the time comes when these conflicts have grown so exacerbated as to render impossible all compromise between the various enemy factions. This constitutes one of the unmistakable signs of the maturity of the revolutionary situation. The revolution then breaks out and the enemy’s rule is overthrown in decisive battles....The victory of the revolution depends primarily on a correct determination of the general orientation and strategic objective, as well as the specific orientation and objective for each period. But just as important as defining the orientation and objective is the problem of how to carry them into effect once such decisions are made. What road should be followed? What forms should be adopted? What measures should be used? Experience has shown that a revolutionary movement may mark time, or even fail, not for lack of clearly defined orientations and objectives, but essentially because there have been no appropriate principles and methods of revolutionary action. Methods of revolutionary action are devised to defeat the enemy of the revolution, and in the most advantageous way, so that the revolution may attain its ends as quickly as possible. Here one also needs wisdom as well as courage; it is not only a science, but also an art. Decisions over methods of revolutionary action require, more than in any other field, that the revolutionary maintain the highest creative spirit. Revolution is creation; it cannot succeed without imagination and ingenuity. There has never been nor will there ever be a unique formula for making a revolution that is suited to all situations. One given method may be adaptable to a certain country but unsuitable in another. A correct method in certain times and circumstances may be erroneous in other situations. Everything depends on the concrete historical conditions..... It is a matter of principle that either in the daily policies or in the practice of revolutionary struggle... a revolutionary should never lose sight of the final goal. If one considers the fight for small daily gains and immediate targets as ‘everything’ and views the final goal as ‘nothing’... then one displays the worst kind of opportunism which can only result in keeping the popular masses in eternal servitude. However, it is by no means sufficient to comprehend only the final objective. While keeping in mind the revolutionary goal, the art of revolutionary leadership lies in knowing how to win judiciously step by step. Revolution is the work of millions of popular masses standing up to overthrow the ruling classes, which command powerful means of violence together with other material and spiritual forces. That is why a revolution is always a long-term process. From the initial steps to the final victory, a revolution necessarily goes through many difficult and complex stages of struggle full of twists and bends, clearing one obstacle after another and gradually changing the relation of forces between the revolution and the counter-revolution until overwhelming superiority is achieved over the ruling classes...”
- Le Duan, “The Vietnamese Revolution: Fundamental Problems and Essential Tasks, New World Paperbacks, New York, 1971, pp22-27.
Kenyans who are interested in fundamental change in this country should not pin their hopes on the fallout between the Orange and the Banana camps or read too much in the current war of words within NAK.
As we saw recently some of these "conflicts" are akin to lovers tiffs that are often quickly resolved with a caress, a hug, a hickie or a full-throttle French kiss.
Who would have thought that Prof. Kivutha Kibwana would have crawled back to the bosom of Kibaki after haughtily declaring that having thought things through, he had decided that his best bet lay in serving Kenyans as a back bencher?
Who would have foreseen our high and mighty paragon of principle Musikari Kombo fall down on all fours to lap up the crumbs left over from the Mount Kenya Mafia’s plum appointments after ranting and raving about not being consulted?
And do we hear even a slight whimper from Mama Rainbow herself these days?
Was she the same person who was threatening fire and brimstone if all the NARC constituent parties were not brought back to the negotiating table?
Personally, I will not be at all surprised to see in tomorrow’s papers an abject recantation and retraction from a delirious praise singing Daktari Kibunguchy at pains to "clarify" that it is those pesky Kenyan journalists AGAIN who maliciously "misquoted" him.
And the whole Meru cat fight may just be an opening salvo for the Tigania, Tharaka, Chogoria, Nyambene,Igembe etc sub-groups and affiliated communities of the greater Ameru to scoop up more spoils for their particular ethnic enclave- after all they have learned from Kombo and Ngilu that tribal blackmail is very effective with Mwai Kibaki:
All you have to do is sulk and sigh heavily for three days, with your back turned and head lowered as you trace the map of Nigeria with your big toe on the tarmac outside State House.
Having said that, it must be acknowledged that these public spats within a family which has been presumably "left alone in peace" by the departed LDP crew points to an undercurrent of instability that does NOT bode well for the future of democratic development in Kenya.
For all intents and purposes, the State House has been reduced to one giant political Gikomba market where politicians are bought and sold like the white goat I won for Xmas simply by drinking two beers at one of the Kengele's outlets and filling out a form (I am not kidding: by the time I showed up for the party at Buru Buru Phase I at around 3:30 pm this last Sunday after spending some precious family time with my favourite auntie and her grown sons and daughters somewhere in Eastlands, I could detect from the skin pinned to dry in the front yard and the chunks of meat huddling in the aromatic biriyani dish that the former live goat had suddenly gone kaput, a sacrifice to the carnivorous appetites of our collective Luo, Gikuyu and Dawida fellow revelers).
This Soko M.jinga quality at Ikulu has lowered the aura, awe and hush hush trepidation with which millions of Kenyans, including those fawning sycophants used to regard the Presidency.
Put more bluntly, Mwai Kibaki has lowered the dignity of the Presidency in the course of further tribalizing Kenyan national politics.
Now we know that both Mzee Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi were ruthless neo-colonial tyrants, but I can bet my very last kobole that the ongoing spectacle of fake braggadocio among court poets looking for favours would have been completely unthinkable.
What Kenyans are likely to witness is a worsening degeneration of what passes for Kenyan national politics as these wanasiasa dispense with all pretence of serving the wananchi who voted them to parliament.
A paradoxical development is in the offing: as the NAK tribal cabal consolidates its shaky rule, the shaky marriage of political convenience will hurtle towards the inevitable divorce court drama.
Looking at FORD-Kenya for example, the tribal and misguided political ambitions of Musikari Kombo for Abaluhya supremacy are being openly mocked by the opportunistic self-seekers like Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi and Dr. Newton Kulundu.
In FORD-People, Mzee Nyachae will continue receding into irrelevance as his Abagusii fellow tribes men and tribeswomen wonder publicly and loudly what he is doing in Kibaki’s government if he cannot protect people like Ongwae, Ogongo and Mongere.
Within the NPK vehicle, Charity Ngilu will have to come to terms with the political dominance of Kalonzo Musyoka in all her former political strongholds.
Even Raphael Tuju must be wondering quietly what he did to the Mount Kenya Mafia to deserve the vicious slap he received recently when his confidant, aide and pal James Rege was turfed out when Kibaki made his notorious reshuffle.
The pro-Kibaki Coast MPs, especially the Mijikenda contingent will sooner or latter wake up to the fact that they are just so many temporary pawns to be used by Kibaki’s back room boys for short term advantage before being discarded like used Kleenex.
The much feared edifice of the so called Mount Kenya Mafia is crumbling from within to reveal, not a united inter-tribal bloc, but rather a fractious conglomeration being torn asunder by competing personal and regional agendas.
Even within his own immediate family, President Kibaki will have to grapple with the competing pledges of loyalty coming from his two wives who each have arrogated themselves as unofficial spokeswomen and defenders of the NAK regime.
Taking into account that this fallout started IMMEDIATELY after the LDP was thrown out of the very coalition they helped steer to electoral victory three years ago, one wonders if the NAK gang will have ample time to get its act together and regroup in time to squeak past the Orange Democratic Movement in the next big showdown of political clout within the Kenyan mainstream.
My crystal ball sees the NAK gang breaking up into smaller ganglets none of which will be strong enough to carry their own home turf, leave alone make a dent in the 2007 parliamentary and presidential elections.
The 2005 constitutional referendum was the trailer. The 2007 elections will be the feature presentation which will bear witness to the annihilation of the NAK team from the Kenyan political landscape. In the aftermath of that election, I see FORD-Kenya splintered into at least two factions and FORD-People wiped out as a political force in Kisii land. The pragmatic opportunists in DP, Safina and other Mount Kenya based parties will wait until the second half of 2006 to ditch the NAK sinking ship. Do not be surprised to see Njenga Karume back in KANU.
Progressive Kenyans should see the next two years as valuable breathing space in which to organize a progressive left leaning national democratic movement- that is not shy about making tactical and strategic alliance with some of these mainstream players.
Let me end it there for today, ama?
Onyango Oloo
Nairobi