Uhuru Project Part II?

[Onyango Oloo]

Kibaki reaches out to Moi over graft crisis

Story by LUCAS BARASA and DAVID MUGONYI
Publication Date: 02/19/2006


President Kibaki is reaching out to former President Moi as he grapples with the political crisis brought about by revelations of deep-seated corruption in his administration, the Sunday Nation can reveal today.

The quiet negotiations conducted through emissaries might eventually result in some Kanu MPs being invited to fill the Cabinet positions left vacant following the exit of key Kibaki allies caught up in the Anglo-Leasing scandal.

Key personalities privy to the talks include Nairobi Catholic Archbishop Ndingi mwana a'Nzeki, Africa Inland Church of Kenya Bishop Silas Yego and President Kibaki's advisor on strategic policy and analysis, State House-based Permanent Secretary Stanley Murage. Others in the know are Defence minister Njenga Karume and Provincial Administration and Internal security minister John Michuki.

One meeting was held at State House last week. One of the personalities involved, who talked to the Sunday Nation in confidence, said: "Tunachotaka ni umoja wa nchi kwani tumekuwa tukiona nchi ikisambaratika. Haijalishi ni mbinu gani tutatumia. (What we want is unity of the country as we have been seeing the country collapsing. It doesn't matter what strategy is used)".

Asked who initiated the talks, the source said: "Both of them (Kibaki and Moi) seemed to have been for the idea. The first step was for the two leaders to meet for discussion on the way forward for the country and you all captured it in the media when they met last year. Our job has just been to facilitate the talks and act as emissaries."

It was widely reported last November in the wake of the defeat suffered by the Government at the referendum that President Kibaki and Mr Moi had met.

At that time there was speculation that President Kibaki, who had dissolved his Cabinet, was keen to officially offer slots to some key Kanu figures, other than those he subsequently appointed without seeking assent of the former ruling party.

1.0. Sweet Vindication: The Muthaiga Posse Celebrates

When I argued recently that there could be nefarious interests stoking the headline grabbing Anglo-Leasing fires, many of my friends barked at me with a viciousness that almost surprised me.

One of the strands in my argument in the series of essays I wrote was that apart from imperialist machinations, there were clear factional motivations that spurred people like John Githongo and media outlets like the Nation Media Group to persecute and prosecute the alleged masterminds of graft with the kind of zeal that has been apparent over the last two of three weeks. In particular- and before Kiraitu Murungi fired off his 36 questions- I had fingered the Muthaiga wing of the andu aitu cabal, fronted by people like Joe Wanjui, Stanley Murage and others of seizing on the Githongo dossier as their big axe to vanquish their internal rivals in the so called Hurlingham Group featuring the likes of Kiraitu and Murungaru.

When I made these statements I was met with angry cat calls and scornful dismissals.

So far I have not backtracked on my views.

Nor am I likely to, any time soon.

Now it looks as if the Nairobi dailies are catching up with my sentiments.

Take a peek at the following links:

eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=36654

eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=36657

eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=36655

nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=67522

Clearly from the above, the Murages, Wambui wa Mwais, Wanjuis etc are preening and chortling at the comeuppance of their intra-factional NAK rivals.

CONTINUED>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[Onyango Oloo]

2.0. Will the Central Kenya Elite Troop to KANU?

When the aging tycoon and Kibaki sidekick Njenga Karume bolted to KANU during the 2002 election campaign, he was seen as the ultimate back stabber. When he crawled back to the current President about two years ago, he earned the titled of the Opportunist Par Excellence. As we write these lines, we read in this weekend's Sunday Nation that he could be one of the discreet champions of a rapprochement between the second and third Kenyan presidents.

The other day I recycled the following conjecture:

Back to my chai sipping rafiki .

Obviously a man with his ear to the ground, he gave me the political lay of the land with details that I have not seen anywhere in the public domain.

For instance, he told me of frenetic political consultations across the political divide.

From what he shared, there has been a series of discreet and not so discreet conversations all over the country since late last year.

At the core of these conversations is a clutch of Central Kenyan politicians outside President Kibaki’s inner sanctum. People like Alfred Nderitu Dr. Kilemi, Mwiria, and even Nyanza MPs like Sammy Weya and so on have been meeting in places like Naivasha, Nyeri, Meru etc.

There is a feeling among their ranks that right now there are only two serious political parties- KANU and the LDP ; that DP is dead and done for; and that with the upcoming 2007 elections, the Central Kenyan region is left without an electoral vehicle of their own, in the context of the highly tribalized and regionalized political power plays going against the backdrop of the lame-duck presidency of the Othaya MP and the continued melt-down of the NAK edifice. It is the wish of these Central Kenyan upstarts, I am told, to craft and cobble together a "National" political party which is in reality a GEMA formation with cosmetic tokens from the Coast, Western, Eastern and the Rift Valley.

The other thing may pal told me is that KANU definitely wants OUT of the Orange Democratic Movement and that a growing section within their ranks do not want to touch the Katiba question with a fifteen foot fito. They do not want anything to do with the agitation for a new constitution for three reasons my interlocutor reported: they say they were mauled by the NARC landslide of 2002; bruised by the fractious party elections and taken to the brink by the hard fought referendum. They are in short, suffering from "electioneering fatigue". They just want to regroup and wait for the 2007 elections- as KANU. . This of course brings them into conflict with some of the KANU big wigs who happen to be ODM luminaries like William Ruto for instance.

The other day my former lawyer Kiraitu Murungi asked a series of loaded and coded questions which were given very short thrift because of their timing- coming across as a series of straws the former Energy minister was clasping. I did not dismiss those questions entirely, savouring and gleaning the underpinnings of factional glossolalia telegraphed from the Hurlingham Group to the Muthaiga Posse.

For instance, there was this swali:

19. Mr. Githongo and Uhuru Kenyatta have been holding secret meetings in London, the latest being last weekend. Can he release the tapes of these meetings? What was discussed at those meetings? Is he involved in a plot by the opposition to bring down Kibaki's Government?

Now the significance of the question is TWO FOLD:

Firstly, Kiraitu is accusing Uhuru Kenyatta of hobnobbing with Githongo BEFORE the PAC team went to London- implying sinister agendas playing themselves out. Secondly he is directly linking Githongo with a KANU plot to wrest political power- after all, Uhuru Kenyatta happens to be the leader of the Official Opposition.

It is very likely that President Kibaki may turn out to be too critically wounded both politically and physically to be the NAK torch-bearer in 2007.

Given the KANUfication of NAK that has been ongoing for the last two years one should not rule out the possibility of the Uhuru faction joining hands with the Muthaiga Posse. Let me be my usual bold self and go further and predict a burying of the hatchet between Uhuru and Biwott to ensure the restoration of the ancien regime come the 2007 elections.

It is not often appreciated that President Kibaki, Njenga Karume, Simeon Nyachae and many of the leading lights in the current administration are LIFE MEMBERS of KANU- even though they now reside in crumbling political vehicles like NAK and FORD-People.

We also know that the Central Kenyan elite outside the Muthaiga-Hurlingham centres of NAK domination are shopping around for a credible "national" vehicle that holds them in good stead come next year.

Realistically, it may be a tall order trying to cobble together a viable political machine that can ride to glory after the 2007 elections.

Could KANU turn out to be that vehicle?

On the surface, that question may presumably drive people like Martha Karua into an apoplectic fit given the rabid zeal with which she and her colleagues are busy canceling passports, confiscating firearms and preparing charge sheets for KANU linked alleged Goldenberg thieves.

Digging deeper one has to acknowledge that Ms. Karua, being a woman, does not have a membership to the Old Boys' Club that shores up the Kibaki kleptocracy.

At least not to the extent that the President’s second wife, Wambui wa Mwai does.

The movers and shakers are the Wanjuis, the Murages, the Njenga Karumes and other geriatric old money patriarchs from the Mount Kenya region.

For these neo-colonial comprador patricians, what matters is NOT protecting the Agikuyu, Aembu, Meru and other affiliated Mount Kenya based ethnic groups. Rather their preoccupation is safeguarding their wealth. Behind the vim and vigour of flushing out the Anglo-Leasing overnight tycoons is a Muthaiga Posse’s disdain for the instant billionaires like Murungaru who catapulted to the wealthy ranks without getting there the hard way- silently peddling political influence for economic gain away from the limelight with a minimum of overt brigandry.

Njenga Karume, dyed in the wool Gikuyu chauvinist that he is, is also a hard nosed pragmatic businessman who sees the dividends of cutting deals with fellow multi-billionaires like Daniel arap Moi.

The comprador bourgeoisie- whether they are in NAK, FORD-Kenya, LDP, FORD-People or KANU are united by their class interests and will do everything to SURVIVE as a class or social stratum.

It is not exactly a secret that the old money in Kenya is quite beholden to the UK-an imperialist power which looked the other way during the Moi looting decades and the Kenyatta land-grabbing golden age. Far from being reform leaning, the government of Tony Blair may prefer to do business with the old hooligans who protected British interests rather than the laissez-faire Anglo-Leasing land-based pirates who want to venture as far a field as India, Singapore, South Korea and China.

Continued....

[Onyango Oloo]

3.0.Which Will Be the Forces to Contend With in the 2007 Elections?

I am writing on February 19th, 2006 and I want to make some reckless predictions and projections:

(i)The CHIEF BENEFICIARY of the Anglo-Leasing Brouhaha is likely to be Uhuru Kenyatta, especially on account of his position as Chair of the PAC. He will strive to carve out an image of himself as the clean cut Mr. Clean who should be entrusted with this country’s leadership;

(ii) A new political party will emerge from Central Kenya. This party will seek and form alliances with the Uhuru faction in KANU as well as the other groupings mentioned above;

(III)Kibaki will fire Awori and not renew Muthaura’s contract. That will be the END of the Anglo-Leasing affair- Murungaru, KIRAITU, MWIRARIA ETC WILL NOT BE PROSECUTED BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL OFFSPRING IN THE ANGLO LEASING KERFUFFLE.

(IV)THE CURRENT SKIRMISH WITH KANU ERA GRAFT FIGURES IS A SMOKESCREEN AS WELL AS A STICK TO BRING KANU TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WITH KIBAKI. GOLDENBERG WILL DIE A PAINFUL DEATH BECAUSE IT TOUCHES KIBAKI AND OTHERS CLOSE TO HIM.

(V)THE UHURU FACTION WILL BOLT FROM THE ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT, LEAVING WILLIAM RUTO AS THE NEW LEADER OF THE THIRD KANU FACTION ( AFTER BIWOTT’S AND UHURU’s).

(VI)The Raila-led ODM will seek and find new allies orphaned by their erstwhile party leaders. It is unclear if the Coast will remain a cohesive Orange bloc. Which means that the bedrock of the ODM will be in Nyanza, the Rift Valley, Ukambani and Western Province. Kalonzo Musyoka will be the ODM flag- bearer.

CONTINUED>>>>>>>

[Onyango Oloo]

4.0. A Head Scratcher…

Will the Kenyan Left and Progressive Forces feature anywhere in the political radar in the 2007 elections?

Search me.

Onyango Oloo
Nairobi

[veritas]

A coded message hey? To be honest I think Kiraitu is just playing around. Even if it’s true what does it matter? I doubt a stupid lot like KANU would’ve orchestrated the whole thing. Githongo may have contacted someone from KANU whilst in UK as a preliminary tip off given they are the official opposition. Taking AL to their advantage seems like a stupid move to me. Their superhero "PAC" tactics certainly don’t convince me and I doubt the average wananchi bought into it either. They etch in my memory as ditching the ODMovement, rejecting the Kenyans who collectively said no to Kibaki to fulfill their selfish presidential ambitions and now posing as "PAC" I mean who assigned them? I don't recall wananchis summoning politicians to spearhead that. Who are they trying to convince? They're confused I tell ya. I mean who’s side are they on? Really, who's side are they on?

In the end it’s the wananchis who vote, KANU under Uhuru may impress some politicians for pulling certain political moves but why should wananchis care for that? In the end they need a leader who can deliver, exposing corruption is certainly not a benchmark for worthy leaders people wanna be led by. It’s not that hard to designate yourself as the thief catcher, run after the thief all for the sake of image and get nowhere. I’d associate them with betrayal, aggression, hostility and all those bad qualities even if they did it in good faith.

More than anything NARC seem like an expert in character assassination, whether it was intented or not, they seem to know when to speak at the appropriate times. I applaud them for remaining somewhat subdued over this matter. Their reputation (not Kibaki’s side) remains pretty intact. KANU has a very very tarnished, dirty reputation getting worse and worse by the day, their acronym makes my nose shrivel in offense. A bunch of haywire desparate spastics, backstabbing one another, betraying conspirators to the president AND of course ODM if indeed your finding is true, what a mess. Like hell anyone would vote for KANU. I mean who's side are they on?

Good luck with the my left-y foot showcase.. i’ll look out for you on cabal.. that’s if I remember. If you get stamped on from right footers don’t think the west turned a blind eye.. they were busy drinking low-fat smoothies, in the gym doing cardio press ups, diligently making profiterals and of course going to work. No disrespect intended KDP.

Peace

veritas
a bottom scratcher

[roughrider]

That the Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki families will coalesce into Kanu?

Nothing could make Kenyans happier. I say Godspeed. For we can then reject all that has gone wrong with Kenya in one fell swoop.

These three households and their appendages adequately represent the totality of filth, the range of political, economic and human rights violations and the sad degeneration of what once promised to be a vibrant country. They have run a sickening relay system of plunder, abuse and other economic debauchery.

I am a little surprised that in an apparent race to score cheap points against online opponents one forgets to condemn the inherent malfeasance of such secret political horse-trading in a country where we ought to encourage democracy and openness in parties. Or is the crave for an ‘I told you so’ moment too overpowering?

Anyhow, as far as conspiracy theories go, I find this one rather unlikely. There are too many dynamics and, for the umpteenth time, Kenya’s politics has changed completely. Backroom political deal making will get one only so far. Plus, let’s give Moi some little credit. He is not the kind of idiot we are painting him to be. He knows associating with the corrupt Kibaki regime of today too closely is political suicide. He knows, courtesy of LDP’s experience, that Kibaki is not to be trusted (I know he believes that presidents can only come from his family and that of the Kenyatta’s… and now perhaps the Kibaki’s – leftists would call it a class thing)

As for the imperialist thing my advice is; go back and read what Miguna, Abdulmote, roughrider etc had to say, reflect on it and offer a dispassionate response… it doesn’t pay to rush to the internet with opinions on every news article that comes out.

[miguna]

Oloo,

I find myself agreeing with Roughrider totally again. I think the problem here is your rush to try and give yourself unwarranted credits. You should be more careful before showering yourself with unmerited points. If only you took your time (and perhaps even printed our views here), you would have found that none of us said the things you now claim we said.

The threads are still there. Go back and reread your pieces and then carefully review each and every posting that we made. You may be perplexed at how wrong you are in attributing sentiments to us that we never expressed.

Finally, what you now declare as "revealing" (the machinations within two quarters of the Big House) are things some us were privy to more than two years ago. You may be taking what the daily papers publish too seriously my brother...

How I wish that an imbedded (Jukwaa reader) but quiet friend of mine who visits this site but has neither signed on nor posted anything would openly declare to you other (more shocking) things that you will be surprised to read in the daily papers in the coming weeks or months!

Some of us are very deliberate on what we post online. Many others choose not to post at all. That doesn't mean that we don't know or we can't say what we know.

In any event, as far as I'm concerned, the articles you have sighted as "redeeming" to your loud and irresponsible call for the "defence of Kibaki's regime" and/or the fear of an NGO-imperialist orchestrated coup against the Kibaki regime, actually call into question your political judgment.

Restrain yourself from premature, over-exuberant and underserved self-congratulatory statements.

[unedited]

-Miguna-

[Onyango Oloo]

It is certainly not Oloo, as far as I am concerned.

Try as some of you might, you will find it exceedingly difficult to draw me into unnecessary online feuds.

Forecasts are verified or disproved by time.

It should not be a very long time, going by your assertions when I will be shown to be a dunderhead.

Onyango Oloo
Nairobi, Kenya

[job]

Oloo, Roughrider & Miguna,

I will choose to take a middle ground position here. In my opinion there's merit in both opposing arguments/ points of speculation (at least portions of......)

I agree with RR that any Moi-Kenyatta-Kibaki fronted PROJECT WILL be outrightly rejected by Kenyans today. It will be the easiest political decision,......just throw them into the dustbin.

I also agree with Oloo that Kibaki is using the Goldenberg scandal to force Moi to the negotiating table. I indeed noted last week Moi's irritating statement, threatening Kenyans to stop "rukaruka-ring" about the Anglo-Leasing scandal, while assuring them that Kibaki will bring things under control.

It is not strange for a Goldenberg looter to seek solidarity with an Anglo-Leasing looter for purposes of settling their own Billionaires Club treaties for future control of Kenya.

Moi's annoying statement was meant for Kibaki's ears,.....calling for truce,....

During the just initiated diversionary "action" on the Goldenberg report,..... we have seen some government ploy,........threatening the interests of the Moi family.

Gideon Moi is clearly besieged, despite Moi's relentless effort to prop him upwards,......immediately behind Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya's future Presidential realm.

That is an open secret. Moi is simply acting to safeguard his family's future interests,...nothing is in it for Kenyans,..period.

RR,

True,...... we may give Moi credit for not being such an an idiot,...but we will also not forget the fact that - with all his wisdom, ........we still rejected his 2002 Uhuru Project. He didn't necessarily see it coming.

With a collapsing Kibaki regime, Moi is smelling yet another opportunity to face Kenyans and say,....."I warned you in 2002 and you failed to listen",........"This time do listen to me".
But as you say correctly,...Kenyans will still not vote for a Moi sponsored project come 2007.

I don't know why Moi thinks Kenyans have vindicated him for Goldenberg and forgiven him for all the misgovernance.

I personally don't appreciate the acceptance of any governance recommendations and proposals from a person who single-handedly consigned Kenya into socio-economic hell. Moi should just be told to "shut up" and ask for forgiveness from Kenyans rather than be given a golden platform to continue with his ruinous advice.

With the next campaigns beginning in almost a year's time,....... Kenyatta may still be seen as a Moi PROJECT (Oloo calls it UHURU PROJECT II). Goldenberg will not escape from the backs of the Moi kingdom,....and Anglo-Leasing will always be tied to Mwai Kibaki.

Kenyans are not necessarily beholden to any particular party and can vote for any political vehicle promising some "change". Whether the change comes or not is subject for another debate.

Oloo,

I agree with you on this speculation about NAK strategists toying with the idea of hijacking KANU. They tried it twice before but unsuccesfully,.....first through Biwott, and lately through the Registrar's Office. It is not a surprise if they just face Uhuru to strike a Coalition deal, whereby Uhuru would be the Presidential candidate.

But let's not forget, Uhuru will definitely NOT run unopposed. Watch this space.

unedited
Job

[pharlap]

Onyang Oloo clearly said

"
I am writing on February 20th, 2006 and I want to make some reckless predictions and projections:

I didn't see him mention anywhere that it was meant to be the truth. I think for the sake of debate, it is ok to let the mind wander a bit. I personally enjoyed the long read.

My prediction, which i insist is pure speculation is that Kibaki will survive the anglo leasing matter and join hands with Raila towards 07'. Uhuru kenyatta will remain in the opposition all his life and will never make it to be president of Kenya. Kenyans will simply not vote for him. Kibaki needs Raila more than anyone else, much more than kiraitu, murungaru or his friends from the Mt kenya region. That is because Raila knows how to get votes, with or without money.

The current situation provides Kibaki with an opportunity to straighten things and if he takes advantage of the situation, he might be the favorite candidate come 07'. The kombos and ngilus are habitual flip flops who cannot keep their word. A good example is the post-referendum vote cabinet allocations, where they had to be bribed in broad daylight to take their positions! Kalonzo musyoka lacks the charisma that a presidential candidate in this time would need. If he had the signature Raila charisma, he would be the perfect candidate, but then, he is lacking in that. At this moment, i would still vote for Kibaki because at lease he listens when people talk. He might be a slow thinker, but at leas the economy grew by 5% last year and some of the projects like free primary education are going on well.

He would still get my vote come 07' and then hopefully should grom someone for 012', and i hope it is mr Githongo. As for the Murungarus and murungis and those adversly mentioned in the scandals, it is the end of their political careers. They will probably go into business after having looted enough. I can imagine anglo leasing is just a tip of the iceberg.

I read with sadness Onyango Oloo's story about how his former lawyer swindled his 100,000khs and that proves to me that that individual cannot be trusted. If he can con a man out of such a small amount, surely he is well capable of manipulating bigger fugures. Uhuru Kenyatta is not the Squeaky clean guy you see on TV. He has his own history as well.

[Onyango Oloo]

holds the key to my view.

i am asking, and i have been asking:

outside the mainstream courtships, realignments, permutations and scheming, where are the kenyan wananchi, especially those of a progressive and radical mien?

will we be forever spectators and cheer leaders of the mainstream politicians or has time perhaps come to carve out our own independent paths?

how someone can twist my essay into a paean for either kibaki, kenyatta or moi is simply beyond me.

onyango oloo
nairobi

[kamalet]

Will Uhuru Part II be? I do not think so.

What we should be wary of is the coalescing of the Moi/Kibaki axis with the Kenyatta family playing a supporting role. In these forums, I have repeatedly said that all this noise you hear on scams will be forgotten soon after deals have been made amongst the corrupt political class. Someone suggested that Moi's statement asking Kenyans to go slow on Kibaki was suspicious, and I interjected that this is a precursor to a deal being made. I highlighted the willingness with which the Moi children returned their passports and guns whilst their lawyers Mutula and Murgor decided to make a fuss out of it. The willingness of Phillip and Gideon must have been at the prodding of their father. As it stands, Mutula's bodyguard has been disarmed whilst Phillips and Gideon's guards are still paid for by the government.

With the clamour for the release of the Ndung'u report, a bigger lot of the political class will be running in to make political deals for their survival. So when you hear Raila cryong wolf that 'they want to arrest me', you should read that to mean 'why are you not calling me for the party?'

When Job suggests that a Moi-Kibaki-Kenyatta axis will be rejected by Kenyans, I shall bravely ask him "WHICH KENYANS ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?"

The political class knows that the "activist class" cannot produce a credible leader acceptable to the entire Kenya electorate. Do your regional arithmetic but constantly bear in mind that ODM is terminally ill, and will not ride the present wave, naivety being its worst enemy.

[abdulmote]

OO,

Puliiz! Just stop it and call it quits for a mo and it should fizzle out. But to go on as if some of us are "dunderheads" is not on. I am sure that you know very well what I am talking about and it would help to keep calm if just for the sake me!

I am talking about this "Imperialist/NgO/DEFEND kibaki regime" thing. Reluctantly I can only repeat what RR and miguna have specifically stated above. There is no need on your part to keep on trying to sanitize your goodself time and again. You happened to screw up a bit on that one and so PUliiz, just let it go! Your stubbornness will not help you at all but only make you look worse!

Having said that, your repeat of "your last question" was good. The progressive forces, where are they? Or are they going to remain as you put it "cheer leaders" for a long time to come?

I wish I could just fly out today and take your challenge right now, but time is not on my side just yet. Personally, I do not know what YOU intend or are actually doing if anything whilst there regarding the same.

Kamale, your observation of "political class" vis a vis "activists class" is apt. That indeed is a sad reality. But I shall remain optimistic on that one for a little longer. A desired revolution Kenyan style is not wholly impossible. Mind you, the timing and conditions could not have been better, but only if all other ingredients are in place! And no, this has nothing to do with the use of force or violence at all. Simply a systematic revolution in the mind of Kenyans that needs to be instigated pronto!

[aeichener]

kamalet said:

In these forums, I have repeatedly said that all this noise you hear on scams will be forgotten soon after deals have been made amongst the corrupt political class.

Yes, I think that is where you and OO plainly agree.

The problem is IMHO, that we have too weak and impotent an administration, too corrupt and too incompetent a judiciary, and too fickle and dispersed a civil society, as [not] to give the necessary checks and balances against the class of a few political oligarchs (and one Raila is every bid as bad as one Kibaki or one Kenyatta).

When Job suggests that a Moi-Kibaki-Kenyatta axis will be rejected by Kenyans, I shall bravely ask him "WHICH KENYANS ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?"

*Sigh* When will the people rise ? The masses are not the agents of history - they never are - but they can be used for the crucial leverage now and then. And now is the time.

Alexander

[job]

Kamale,

You asked me which Kenyans will not vote for a Moi-Kenyatta-Kibaki axis.

I will be glad to answer you since you seem too eager to have Kenyans vote for the trio. Are you assuming that Kenyans badly want,............ more of the same?

The Kenyans who rejected Kibaki's hegemonic Constitution,....... Kenyans who decry Goldenberg and Anglo-leasing looting,.......Kenyans who desist massive land grabbing by the three FAMILIES of KENYATTA, MOI and KIBAKI !

Those are the Kenyans who will not vote for such a project. If you think they are in the minority, then keep thinking so.

You seem to wish so dearly that Kibaki finds some reprieve, using the Kenyatta and Moi families just for his survival as President.

But that is all warped thinking. Let me tell you exactly why.

For Kibaki to have survived, he should have instead looked at none other than Kenyan voters themselves,......i.e; safeguarded their public coffers from looting, delivered their desired version of the Katiba,....balanced his public appointments across the whole country, (& not Mt Kenya & isolated lands of sycophants).....promoted national unity,.....promoted fair distribution of resources/wealth/development across the whole nation (beyond Othaya, Meru and Mt. Kenya) and.........prioritized public procurement based on national needs rather than personal greed (for instance built extra wings in all provincial hospitals rather than buy a fake naval ship costing billions),.........introduced a new era of good governance & meritocracy in the public service,.........shunned ethnic chauvinism and cronysm etc etc etc

That is how to win an election, not running to families of fellow thieves,..... the same people who have been oppressing Kenyans.

Since the man can't learn,..even from the referendum loss,....let him go exactly where he belongs,...HOME.

Did running to Nyachae, Kombo and Ngilu help Kibaki at the referendum? If your answer is NO, then think deeply before you post your self-assuring statements of denial.

Don't try to convince yourself that Kibaki is innocent of the looting and plunder of Kenya, or that he is the most nationalistic (least tribalistic) of all Presidents.

Don't get things twisted,....Moi supported ODM at the referendum strategically to implore upon RV Province to reject the Katiba,......... hoping that Uhuru's(& Gideon's) prospects would be lifted. Central Province had other ideas for Uhuru/Moi.

The point,......The referendum did not help Kibaki,...... neither did it help Uhuru,....it hurt them both, in different ways.

Kibaki's political strength was exposed,......he's weak without strong allies. Uhuru was percieved as the same project benefactor who relies on Moi's RV base but has none of his own so long as Kibaki is there.

It further isolated Kibaki & Uhuru's voting base (Central)from the rest of the nation,......... Not a good thing with the elections just coming next year.

Now that Moi is concerned of his personal survival, he can just run to Kibaki, ..........but Kenyans have nothing to do with any personal deals made by Moi, to help retain Kibaki, a man touted by some, as the most tribalistic and inept President ever to rule Kenya.

Whether Moi is shifting loyalty from Uhuru to Kibaki is doubtful. He will simply not. He just wants to buy time (Goldenberg) untill 2007 when Kibaki's attention will be elsewhere (elections),..and he will come back fighting for Uhuru/Gideon. Moi might be even the one to ask Kibaki to step down for Uhuru in a win-win deal.

On the other hand, Kibaki's men might want to implore upon Uhuru to with-hold his ambition for one extra term,...waiting until 2012,.....such that Uhuru supports Kibaki in 2007 in exchange for Kibaki's support in 2012.

That is exactly my point. Kenyans will not buy such crap.
A deal for Moi-Kibaki-Uhuru-Gideon etc will only work against the greater good of Kenya.

Back to Kamale's favourite,.... Kibaki,...........

If you expect Kibaki to wake up one day and declare that since Kenya's population has tripled between 1963 and now,........we need to develop a plan to triple the capacity of public hospitals,....you will be day dreaming.

A friend recently joked that the man wakes up thinking how; he could finish Tinga and Moi,.......he could Anglo-Fleece and eat public "mbuzis" quietly, away from noisemaking pumbavus,...... and how to retain the luxuries of the Presidency.

It has not escaped me how Kamale predicted a landslide Banana win for Kibaki's government using the same arguments,.....ati Kenyans will still vote for the incumbent,.......the economy is good , DP dominates Nairobi, .....Nyachae, Saitoti, Kombo, and Ngilu will deliver,.....blaaaah ...blaah....blah

I'll repeat my statement,....even if there is a possibility that Moi, Kenyatta, & Kibaki are working some deal,.......... there shall be another countering front on the ballot paper. Be my guest.

Job
unedited.

[adongo12345]

Comrades

Interesting points.

For the life of me I don't know why we keep dragging the old debate of who is "right or wrong" on the power alignments as we see them unfold. The truth of the matter is that we are on shifting ground and it is very possible that one could be wrong today and very right tomorrow. As political activists and writers (part time for me) we hardly qualify as seers.

My take is that Operation Salvage Kibaki is on. From a purely tribal angle it is necessary for the power elites from the Mount Kenya region to redeem themselves from the completely disgraced Murungaru, Murungi, Mwiraria team. If Githongo is going to be the one to do it, fine for them. However I find it rather curious that Githongo has also hit Kibaki pretty hard. I don't think this is a seamless conspiracy plan, but like all political projects and processes it acquires a life of its own as it goes along.

When this whole argument started, my two cents opinion was that this is an attempt to salvage one arm of the MKM power barons by burying the other arm. As anybody knows that can be a pretty dangerous operation.

I take issue with OO saying people were "barking at him", but I'll take my chances by saying I think we have mixed two very legitimate debates and got everything upside down.

Number one there is no doubt that we are witnessing a harrowing intra-class power struggles and rivalries, first within the MKM crew itself and then within the wider group of those who actually think they own our country. The Moi Mafia group is in the wings and feel vindicated with the Anglo scam now confirming everybody who gets to power becomes a thief one way or the other.

Will Kibaki work with Moi? Big question. I don't think it will work out. They are going to start it by simply getting Kanu to join the government in an official way as the cleaners of corruption!!!. This is very tricky for Kanu. They are just getting a break as Kibaki and his crew are caught, I doubt they want to jump into bed with the same Kibaki at a time when Kibaki's main problem is corruption from his inner circle. Uhuru and his team with my buddy Murathe as one of his advisors rejected the same offer from Kibaki after the referendum because they wanted a formal deal with Kibaki then. Will they accept it now if it is offered? Time will tell, but it might be an extremely dangerous move for Kanu because they will find it very difficult to jump off the train should Kibaki be going down despite their help.

Will Uhuru be the Narc candidate if Kibaki can't get it going literally. That would destroy Uhuru completely but he sure would get a lot of tribal votes from Kibaki's supporters but I don't see who else will vote for him. Ford K would be pissed beyond redemption. Rift Valley will be another story altogether.

Simply put, the intra class power games and alliances are going to face a lot more twists and bends than they expect. Kenyans are not as dump as they think.

Let's remember Narc was an alliance primarily created by the masses of the Kenyan people who were fed up with Moi and Kanu. The masses held the Rainbow together despite immense pressure from Moi and when Narc clicked the people were ready to embrace them. It would be interesting to see how Kenyans would react to these artificial alliances being minted to save the godfathers of corruption in both the Moi and Kibaki regimes.

Which brings us to the big question OO has been raising. which is absence of progressive forces as the political drama unfolds.

From where I sit in Toronto, it might be presumptuous of me to claim I can answer that question but a few things are pretty obvious and I think OO has written about this topic more than anybody I know.

Number one, without a movement that galvanizes progressive thoughts, ideas and actions we will continue to have problems making our presence felt on the ground. The work we do behind the scenes and our work in the combat of ideas that goes on as we speak is good but we have a long way to go.

Number Two: I found the behavior of the civil society groups in relation to the Feb 17, mass action to be quite depressing. First they had this urge to almost apologize to Kibaki in advance that they are not interested in removing him from power, just fighting corruption. Then or buddy Orina meets with Ayan'g Nyon'go to let him know that the civil society groups are not in any way helping anybody to fight for power. What kind of nonsense is this? Kenyans have held mass rallies and mass actions for decades, but i have never heard of such conceited maneuvers. I bring this up because the civil society is home to many of our progressive comrades and groups and it says a lot about the collapse of the "progressive" elements within this vital segment of our society that they need to give assurances to corrupt thieves before organizing an action which I must say was a near failure in terms of its magnitude.

At this rate the civil society mass action will become like professional NBA players where the potential is always much greater than the real thing. At least for NBA players they get paid for the potential. The fear of the mass rally really shook the government up, but the real thing was another story altogether, and I think that is partly because the civil society groups are not building real alliances with the political groups who are on their side ati "because they don't want to help anyone get to power" If we don't even have the confidnece that we can work with shaky political groups like ODM and others without being swallowed by their agenda then we have some real serious problems.

Number three is we are fighting the wrong war. Kenyans today should be fighting for a transitional government with a clear mandate to do three things. Put an end to corruption decisively, facilitate the constitutional review process and keep nation's priorities like food relief, economic initiatives etc alive before we go to the polls preferably within one year. Instead even the civil society groups seem very content that if we can get rid of Awori and Muthaura then we will be fine. We are missing the boat by a mile, but I get the feeling that the people are very keen and when they finally take to the streets with some leadership, things will be very different.

As for Uhuru with his PAC scoop, it looks good on him but really it is not going to take him far. My argument which I thought was slightly misrepresented by my friend Miguna was that, Kenyans need to take ownership of the material collected by Uhuru in London. That is critical stuff and we don't have to wait to Uhuru to make recommendations. We need the data as in verbatim reports.

Will the thieves make deals and throw dust in our faces. Yes they will make the deals but the dust in our faces might just get right back to their eyeballs if they don't watch. Actually some deals have to be made. I will talk about later after I finish some work that actually pays the bills.

Adongo

[aeichener]

adongo12345 said:

Number three is we are fighting the wrong war. Kenyans today should be fighting for a transitional government with a clear mandate to do three things. Put an end to corruption decisively, facilitate the constitutional review process and keep nation's priorities like food relief, economic initiatives etc alive before we go to the polls preferably within one year. Instead even the civil society groups seem very content that if we can get rid of Awori and Muthaura then we will be fine.

Yes indeed.
Kenyan sheep and their maniac obsession with "leadership and "bigmanism". It's almost as immature a show as with Americans. *Sigh*

Alexander

[miguna]

Folks:

I'm not sure if the question I am about to pose need a seperate thread. If it does, I welcome someone or anyone to start it now. The question is this: What is the working definition of "the Kenyan progressive forces?"

Secondary questions:
1. Who are entitled to provide the definition?
2. What do we do with those who claim to be progressive but whom the definition might exclude?
3. Is there a stratification of "progressive?"
4. What are our priorities now? Having a movement by "progressive forces" or "cleaning" Kenya of octogenerian looting dictators like Kibaki, Nyachae, et al?
5. Is this the appropriate forum for such a discussion?

Once we agree on some working definition [and perhaps some answers to the secondary questions], then we may be along way towards our Third Liberation.

However, should we find ourselves lost (as I anticipate we might), then let us contend ourselves with the muddles that we find ourselves in.

I am very conscious of the problems Kenyan exiles - in particular - have faced in trying to "correctly" identify this nebulous creature and how fleating their grasps have been.


Adongo: I heard you. Other than the one statement in my piece about your (mis)characterization of Uhuru's UK trip, I am (and was) OK with the rest of your thoughts.
On Githongo's dossier, my take is that Kenyans already pretty much know almost everything they need to know concerning who are culpable. The only details they should also know (and they will) are the amounts involved. The people will decide what to do with these details.

[unedited]

-Miguna-

[mossad]

On Githongo's dossier, my take is that Kenyans already pretty much know almost everything they need to know concerning who are culpable. The only details they should also know (and they will) are the amounts involved. The people will decide what to do with these details.


That's right on the point and no matter how Kibaki acts or behaves from this point onwards, i think the peolple of kenya have made up their minds and just like in the past in their patience, they will take appropriate actions.

Mossad.

[roughrider]

Miguna - Are you trying to address the last part of the essay? i.e.

admin said:

Will the Kenyan Left and Progressive Forces feature anywhere in the political radar in the 2007 elections?

I will mull over this but I notice the word 'and' between Kenyan Left and Progressive Forces could be significant. I still have to propose a working definition for the two.... but later.

[miguna]

miguna said:

Folks:

The question is this: What is the working definition of "the Kenyan progressive forces?";

Secondary questions:
1. Who are entitled to provide the definition?
2. What do we do with those who claim to be progressive but whom the definition might exclude?
3. Is there a stratification of "progressive?"
4. What are our priorities now? Having a movement by "progressive forces" or "cleaning" Kenya of octogenerian looting dictators like Kibaki, Nyachae, et al?
5. Is this the appropriate forum for such a discussion?

-Miguna-

Roughrider:

I noticed the article "and." The reason I omitted to include the "Left" is because I believed that most people agree on what that beast means. The problem for me is the definition of "progressive forces." Since we may also agree that most civil society, political activists, etc consider themselves "progressive," and given the fact that they consider themselves integral to the ongoing struggle towards the final liberation of our people, we need to know who these forces are before we can discuss what kind of "movement" [as proposed] can be launched.

[unedited]

-Miguna