New Poll and KM, Raila, Kickback1

[politicalmaniac]

This junk poll doesnt makes sense.

What does "rating" mean?

Before we even get there just who the ef are these guys polling?

LDP enjoys a rating of 50% in Nyanza but has more than 50% of the MP's?

Kanu gets 24% in NBI and 23% in Rift Valley?

These 2000 kenyans how were they chosen and polled? face a face? (fact 2 face) telephone? written survey?

How did they know who was a registered LDP member?

Anyway let KM's head swell.
He still has to go out and run, campaign, woo, strategize and win.

The person who "wins" in this "poll" is Kickback1.
Why? this "poll" only adds fuel to the fire of fissure and rock the ODMers'.

Untill we have "scientific" sampling, and a history of correlation between polls and outcomes, I say we adopt a wait and see attititude.

[museveni]

This is a clear indication that ODM is set to win the next elections.

[politicalmaniac]

Museveni

Indications here on the ground:

Kickback1 is going home to Othaya, or Wherever it is he needs to go
This I am sure of.

Just talk to the people and see the disatisfaction in their faces, the agony in their voices.
The poll guy stated one clear fact. Tribal voting will likely occur and here I concur.

So as I have stated elsewhere and it is now an accepted fact, the Cobler wins. Pure and simple. Thats why I am caustiously optimistic that a NON - NAK fellow is going to form the next GOVT.

The trick for the ODMers is to hold the fragile coalition intact and take on the incumbent who though wobbling, still has the power of incumbency to draw upon.

[mossad]

Despite the fact that kibaki is the most domant prezzy in kenya history, i still dont think we shall see any mcuh change if Kalonzo takes the lead. Following the directions being followed by the current parliament(Increase in Allowances, CDF) we are doomed as the pple of kenya and we are not safe with Kiibaki or ODM taking power.

Mossad.

[einstein]

@ politicalmaniac,

I agree with you on the need for the ODMers to try very hard to keep the coalition together. My only worry is Uhuru's loud silence on the import of presenting a united front against Kibaki next year. He seems to imagine that KANU can pull it off on its own.

I'm equally worried about KM's ability to acknowledge defeat in the yet to be conducted LDP-Torchbearer elections. Will he be ready to support the winner in case he loses? The results of all these polls could get into the chap's head, so much so he thinks he is the King in waiting. The only reason most Kenyans favoured him for the post of the President thus far is coz Kenyans thought Tinga was only interested in the PM post. Now that Kenyans get to know Tinga's true position on the issue of presidency, his ratings are getting better by the day!

Hence, the ODM unity will be largely determined by how KM and Uhuru view ODM.

[politicalmaniac]

EINSTEIN,
I concur about KM's ability to take defeat in stride.
I talk to people everyday and I see no desire for a KM led ODM.

Infact voter a Raila Candidacy will do wonders for voter turnout both for and against him.
People are psyched about this candidacy and not KM's.

By the way Ceasar Handa, the poll adminstrator (we went to UoN together if I am not mistaken), just happens to be related to Raila (distant cousin or somethin'). What Irony!!

Who commisioned this poll if I may ask?
How much knowlegde and experience do these guys have? the "pollers"that is?
How confident are they, that what they produced is an actual reflection on the ground?

Unlike the Gallup and other western polls that have a storied history, a concrete body of work that make their polls an actual reflection of reality, these Kenyan polls are just junk science, fuzzy math, mere propaganda as far as I am concerned.

[mzee]

The problem with these opinion polls in Kenya is not "fuzzy math" as someone suggested. These people are more than often great statisticians. However, their mistake is always to borrow too heavily from the west. They, in a word, take the exact methodology used in western countries and with very little or no modification at all apply them in the Kenyan context. There are several variables they dont at all consider. A good example is tribal affiliation. Since no nknown method has been developed for incoparating this and other truly African variables, the polls more than often are usually a schooled guess.

As for KM, I guess its time to wake up. The man believes he is the prezzy in waiting. But his lone ranger actions only hardens my belief that he might be another kibaki if elected. Apart from that the man has no known leadership record. If the polls are anything to go by, which I dont think they are, Agwambo is certainly the winner, for he has overtaken Uhuru and is going for KM and Kibaki.

Even though I would wish to have a united ODM, as has been suggested, M1 via Uhuru will not let that happen. M1 is in the process of biulding kanu up again. Its seems that KM and Uhuru will be the flagbearers. Ruto and Jebii Kilimo will join Agwambo in LDP. My other belief is that any two or three major parties which form a coalition will win the next elections.

[ndauosa]

We are definately doomed whichever side the vote goes at present, hawa ni wale wale. If the ODM were a serious people an d innoccent bunch of saints as they want us to believe, they would no doubt be ruling at this point in time. They had the numbers with them. They had the support,morale and goodwill of the international community rallied behind them. But they were scared of their sins. Wanajua, they would not have survived on that spot.
Kama wangekua genuine why were they afraid of the thanking tour, the nation wide demonstrations planned even before the victory of the referendum? They lied to us and that does me worry of their intensions, the youth were ready to go. to the full extreme of expessing their freedom.

All the same, ODM, NARC-K zote ni maclabu za wagongaji.this are gangs of thieves and tribalists. Who feed and depend on the valnurable position of the kenyan tax payer.
When it comes to adding on their pay packages they work out things as a unit, but when it is to do with wanjiku.Potea.

[pharlap]

Bottom line- there are lies, greater lies and then come the polls. Kibaki will pull through come 2007. No matter how many polls are conducted. He is messing with everyone now. Kalonzo.....he is nothing without Raila and a few other prominent leaders. I doubt he will make it at grassroot level.

[mzee]

You people are talking about Kalonzo being a lone ranger, but the man who has perfected the art is UHURU. He, like KM, also believes that he is the president in waiting. He is among other things counting on the fact that Kibaki might not vie. That is why he has not bothered to campaign in kikuyuland. He understands their minds. He knows that ones Kibaki has left the scene all Kikuyus will run to him, including those who hate him. This is why he has been "bullshiting" ODM. His main man M1 has again promised to whip all the Kales behind the project. With about two million votes from RV, he could be home and dry. That is why Ruto has been giving them sleepless nights. The truth is that, when push comes to shove; only a few kales will quit Ruto to vote for Uhuru. In other words, his lone ranger tactics might only work if Kibaki does not go for it. Uhuru should stop following M1`s coat tail like a dog and be a man of his own.

[wanyee]

ndauosa has summed it up well (3 posts previously).

"ODM, NARC-K zote ni maclabu za wagongaji.this are gangs of thieves and tribalists. Who feed and depend on the valnurable position of the kenyan tax payer.
When it comes to adding on their pay packages they work out things as a unit, but when it is to do with wanjiku.Potea."

---

Are these not simple facts? Why not save our precious time, energy, and other resources, uniting for a better Kenya? How will all this analysis about these "leaders" help us?

It is my humble opinion, that by engaging in such debates, we actually end up becoming participants in 'the circus'. Thus, they call us 'pumbavus'.

Brothers and sisters, WE NEED TO WAKE UP NOW!

[kamalet]

First and foremost, it is important to establish who commissioned the poll as the results may be designed to provide a desired effect!

For instance, Kibaki stays stationery whilst Kalonzo goes down. End result is that it would appear as if Kibaki is closing on Kalonzo which is not the case. It then goes to 'promote' Raila above Uhuru with an incredible +10% rating from a low of 4% in another poll! Someone suggested that the pollster is a relative of Raila, so it is not difficult to see the design of the poll result. So let us ignore these polls and dwell on what is actually happening on the ground!

First and foremost is the campaign to cut Ruto down to size (forget about any structure being called ODM - it simply is not there!) by Moi. All the MPs supporting him apparently have had people sponsored against them by Moi as a ploy to scare them to abandon Ruto. It would appear the plan is to kill off any relationship that Ruto has with Raila. This should explain Uhuru's luke warm support for ODM!

But why would Moi want to kill off Ruto (and ODM)? I think it is to sustain a Kibaki presidency which has been kind to him in more ways than one. So what you will have is Kalonzo back in government soon or his ultimate political demise as the options available to him. If the Kibaki and Moi strategeists have their plan working, they hope to reduce ODM to merely LDP and finally as a Raila party with Luos only in it. The same is happening to Kombo and Ngilu where they are progressively standing out as tribal chieftains whilst Narc-Kenya appears to take a national look with all Kikuyus lurking in the background, bankrolling it from the rear as someone calls it!

So come 2007, Kibaki and his Narc-Kenya come back to power with Kanu led by Uhuru and Kosgey as its coalition partner - result? The winners are Kibaki and Moi!! Rest of you Kenyans can go hang!!!

[ndauosa]

The results no doubt have an intended desire, which is to campaign and be used as a weapon by the same people wana clabu.To lure voters on their side. Keep your eyes open and i asure you that you are'nt seen nothing yet, bado. Many more polls will crop up, now that tumegundua mchezo, a new strategy.
As Wanyee said it's time we stop being used, tu amke. It will be a hard position to be taken most of all by the wazee, who are not ready to give up. And think of themselves as all rounders.
Before Narc come to power, i almost got myself into Guoko, for saying that Raila might be trading on a risky track that would eventually hurt or help him.
I new that the moment they endosed another Mzee as the presidential pole bearer.
Let me not be taken as a tribalist, but the truth be told, it had been a hard 20 years for the GEMA to be out in the cold, after enjoying all the fruits of Uhuru at the top. what did we expect, he has learnt his mistakes and will not do the same again. If kibaki will let go of power without putting up a strong fight, Haiwezekani.
How many people have been prosecuted with corrupt charges commited by the former regime, KANU asili. And yet that was the slogan by the Narc. And we still conduct our analsis around them, trying to pick the good parts of them, though untill know we are yet to see any positive, that the average person dispays in real life. What we say is afadhali Kibaki kushinda Moi. Ngilu kushinda Raila et cetera. Wote ni mashetani and that goes without any argument. They all have blood stains of the innoccent and are all haunted, wana vicha.

WANACLABU NIWAJANJA.....!!!

[kamalet]

Ndauosa,

It is defeatist to assume that you can ignore these thieves, since you have no alternative. Please do not tell me that you or I can be the alternatives for our thoughts unfortunately are not representative of the other Kenyans who may view things like us!

We should not ignore the hold these 'thieves' have on the strings of society to an extent that I think you are perhaps better off changing things from within rather than through misguided opposition. The arguments I see here are not any different to those I watched on KTN last week when a bunch of some misguided activists thought that the solution for this country is political power for the youth! Fortunately the PS youth affairs correctly articulated that solutions for this country do not just lie in political leadership passing on to the youth, but leadership must transcend all other spheres of society. The problem we have is that unless we have economically empowered youth, we can never hope for youth leadership in this country, and that is what these activists should be seeking out and not empty words like we want political leadership now!!!

I attended a very interesting function last weekend hosted by an MP in central province. As an open forum, a young man challenged the MP on his approach to youth affairs. The young man told the MP that he may have in the last 15 years spent close to 8 million shillings giving out footballs and uniforms to the local youth - not a bad idea he said. But supposing the MP had given out money to fund an income generating activity for the football team, would they not benefit by buying themselves the balls and kit and also have something sustainable going on? The young man is not an activist in the region, but a realist who appreciates that leadership need not be political or driven by political desire!

So back to our present day thieves, they will not want you getting the power you have, they will prefer handing out 200/- to youths to buy drugs and illicit brews in the villages than have you something to do! That is why you and I can sit and discuss them all day, only on the recognition that there is little we can do about it!!!!

[ndauosa]

I do agree and in my earlier posts talked about the empowerment of the youth being the way out, as giving fish to feed will never solve it. On the other hand i disagree with the point that we have no other alternative, but to keep discussing.
I did point out my concern on the sincererity of the youth demonstration against the M.Ps pay package, for unless it is a demonstration by a youth who understand and know what the real implications of what they are demonstrating against, then we are not heading any where. But the youth are coming up and during their idling time now can only engauge in poly- tricks.
We can make a change if we are dedicated and commited to what we really want to achieve. We can not for sure just brush off our present leaders, but united we can. Using the meagre resources that we personally have we can support the youth in the income generating projects that are sustainable. The problem is we wait for the politicians to do that for us, that is where we go wrong. The people who start up such always have the idea of being rewarded by being elected to be councillors or M.Ps. behind their minds. It is never genuine.
The problem is sellfishness, and this only encourages the youth to rob from those.
It is ones right for sure to have as much property and assts as he can, but the truth is what can he consume at a given time. And how safe is he if the majority in his area can not afford a days meal. He rather pays for security than avoid it, put a price tag on his life, than to support his own, fearing equality.

We have reasonable young leaders, who are capable of national and even international leadership positions, if only the system was fair in terms of democracy. One has never been given a chance to work but when a job that he is qualified for is advertised, they need hem to have a 3years experience.

I once was in a shareholders meeting, that doubled as the election time for the office bearers. I did ask at least a youth to be elected. What i was told by one very respected personality in kenya, was the youth should buy enough shares to warrant their inclusion in the running of the project. Where did they expect them to get that from.

Lost touch with the youth and that means no communication that is proper. They chose to use other means to register their malilio.
Tutafika lakini.

[kamalet]

Ndauosa,

That we are agreed on the best way for the youth to change the morass that is our country, may I suggest that you go out and preach the gospel of education. For those through with their education, it is not only being a pen jockey that you can make it, tell them to roll up their sleeves, dirty their hands and work.

That should win it, ama?

[ndauosa]

It is true that we would like to shy off from the responsibility of participating and even initiating a way to realise total change, but we at the end of it all we are answerable for the route that our country is taking and the entire continent.
We love excuses and having some one to blame, as that seems to be the easiest way out of the reality. Wewe na mimi tuna jukumu, Kenya is Marwa. And passing the blame to bwana Moi, Kibaki and preparing to get another scape goat, very soon.. Mpaka lini wana Jukwaa?

[roughrider]

kamalet said:

First and foremost, it is important to establish who commissioned the poll as the results may be designed to provide a desired effect!

For instance, Kibaki stays stationery whilst Kalonzo goes down. End result is that it would appear as if Kibaki is closing on Kalonzo which is not the case. It then goes to 'promote' Raila above Uhuru with an incredible +10% rating from a low of 4% in another poll! Someone suggested that the pollster is a relative of Raila, so it is not difficult to see the design of the poll result. So let us ignore these polls and dwell on what is actually happening on the ground!

First and foremost is the campaign to cut Ruto down to size (forget about any structure being called ODM - it simply is not there!) by Moi. All the MPs supporting him apparently have had people sponsored against them by Moi as a ploy to scare them to abandon Ruto. It would appear the plan is to kill off any relationship that Ruto has with Raila. This should explain Uhuru's luke warm support for ODM!

But why would Moi want to kill off Ruto (and ODM)? I think it is to sustain a Kibaki presidency which has been kind to him in more ways than one. So what you will have is Kalonzo back in government soon or his ultimate political demise as the options available to him. If the Kibaki and Moi strategeists have their plan working, they hope to reduce ODM to merely LDP and finally as a Raila party with Luos only in it. The same is happening to Kombo and Ngilu where they are progressively standing out as tribal chieftains whilst Narc-Kenya appears to take a national look with all Kikuyus lurking in the background, bankrolling it from the rear as someone calls it!

So come 2007, Kibaki and his Narc-Kenya come back to power with Kanu led by Uhuru and Kosgey as its coalition partner - result? The winners are Kibaki and Moi!! Rest of you Kenyans can go hang!!!

I wish politics could always lend easily to such simple, straightfoward common-sense, wishful analysis. Unfortunately it doesn't... things are often much more complex, unpredictable and multidimensional than we think and hope.

For example, last week I saw an article by Mutahi Ngunyi suggesting that Kibaki is a genious who engineered his own referendum humiliation and the subsequent scandals that rocked his government apparently in order to appear weak or as part of some grand plan blah blah... It made comfortable Sunday reading. Did I say Mutahi Ngunyi writing from state house?

Yawn.

Anyhow, I shall probably spare time to share my equally wicked political punditry.

As for this whole talk about 'wanaclabu' and young people etc... I have heard it before and I am certain it will get nowhere. kenya's problem is not about 'youth'. It is about moving from personality based politics to issue oriented discourse. The leaders that have disappointed the most are the young ones; for their demonstrated intellectual shallowness and their willingness to run around after tribal chieftains - singing wierd tunes of sycophancy; this is the Yvonne Khamati generation.

[ndauosa]

We kamalat uko wapi? The kenyan youth are now more educated than germans believe it or not, besides that is not the issue here. The youths lack that capital and opportunity to even dirty their hands. Have you come across any space that needs labour and lacked the force.
That is why they have that energy that the politicians deem proper to misuse for their own sellfish ends.

Hawana, and that is why the Narc government used jobs as a platform.

[roughrider]

ndauosa said:

I once was in a shareholders meeting, that doubled as the election time for the office bearers. I did ask at least a youth to be elected. What i was told by one very respected personality in kenya, was the youth should buy enough shares to warrant their inclusion in the running of the project. Where did they expect them to get that from.

I dont agree with this business of creating positions of representation, say for youth; particularly in the private sector.

Who ever heard of such a strange idea!

Sitting on the board of a private company is a function of shareholding and in many cases company networking interests. It is all to do with profits.

Even if a young person is in a position of leadership, I would be amazed if she claimed she is representing youth. For whatever the issues of the youth might be they are the issues of a country and an electable octogenerian must be able to adequately represent this.

Ndausa and your sidekick Wanyee; be advised. No one should be given positions merely on the pretext of age...they must earn it and deserve it purely on merit.

[ndauosa]

Examples of failed young leaders and not khamati would be a good way to begin with.
We do not expect the youth to exhibit the As you put it Interlect... as you there position is different from theres and that is a fact. You can not sit in his seat and he cannot fit into to yours either.
The african traditions spelt out the different positions that were to be given to all, and each had a part to play. When now want to compete with the youth and do not want to give them a chance because we want to classify them as Immature.
Itabidii muingiane, if the majority decides it does not matter what parameters you use to evaluate their Interlect,. But they have said they are tied of the old wazee, who are Werevu. Wakwende huko na iyo intelligence yao. We;ve seen nothing of substance come from them over the years. Why not try another plot. My opinion.

[ndauosa]

Rough...Whatever, do not just be assumptious kilasiku, this was not a private but a CBO. Na ukae ukijua this is not a platform of weighing your knowledge,experience of age, and using it to get to others. If you wish to engauge in that kind of showbizz, you should count me out. English is a very ambiguos language for me that i always choose not to over indulge myself in on a demonstration stage, as you are advocating for. Sahau chali...

I can see the intellectual properties you are talking about. And i guess the youth do not have that, and that does not mean we are to be pissed off, kwasababu Umesema....No.. Nyinyi ndio hao.

[mzee]

@ndauosa;

This issue of youth being given a chance is getting out of control. Just as much as the issue of wazee`s ruling forever. Looking at the current political horizon, we can see that the youth are by default taking over. It is sometimes difficult to define what “youth” is just as much as it is to define a “young turk”. Where is the cut? Is it 50, 40, 30 or 20? Is Balala, Uhuru, Ruto, Mungatana, Tuju, Ndungu, Kianjuru, Jebii, Ayacko etc youthful leaders? If this is the case then we really do not have to campaign further for the so-called youth. They have taken their rightful positions; it is only that they have not been able to make an impact due to sycophancy. Most of them spend time supporting the old men in power or completely lack ideas of their own. Have you ever heard of any good motion or proposal brought in parliament by these bunch, save for Ndungu? Have you heard that the above bunch includes some of the loudest supporters of Kibakis rotten gova? It is incredible to hear people transfixed on the belief that age alone would fix our problems. The answer lies in innovative thinking and conceptual change, which are not bound by age. That is an ability to produce ideas, which generate economic growth and, ultimately, improve revenue base.

The leader of the opposition is Uhuru Kenyatta, I do consider him young or youthful. However, his performance as a leader of opposition in parliament has been abysmal. But some of us still hold the belief, that if and when elected, he would make a good president. It will not happen. The man is useless now and he will be useless then. Kibaki was a useless parliamentarian and he has ended up being a useless prezzy. Moi was also a bad parliamentarian and we all know what happened later. In other words, people who have a chance to contribute to development and do not take the chance are not good leaders inspite of their age. I could say that a person as old as Anyang Nyongo has usually better ideas than the so-called youth. Let the youth come forward and show their stuff. Kenyans will never say “vijana tosha” if they do not show what they are made off. If the wages refuse to relinquish power, then they should take it. Ghanaians did it, why not Kenyans.

[wanyee]

Mzee,

On the definition of 'youth', please refer to the "NO REFORMS, NO ELECTIONS" thread.

[mzee]

Wanyee,
Sawa kabisa