Turmoil in KANU

[Onyango Oloo]

I am hoping to reconstruct a posting that I just lost due to those pesky online glitches which leaves you fuming....

As expected (that is how I began the original posting) Uhuru Kenyatta's swaggering announcement that KANU was ditching the ODM seems to have blown up in his own face- what with the open defiance of the Ruto faction:



www.timesnews.co.ke/25may06/nwsstory/topstry.html

eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143953021

Unlike those tribalists who may think that Uhuru's discomfort is driven by a GEMA agenda I posit that the KANU Chairperson is largely guided by comprador bourgeois class interests. Uhuru does not have a chauvinist bone in his body- at least not overtly. Coming from a land-grabbing family with extensive business interests all over the country the KANU head honcho is consciously and unconsciously shoring up the need for the Moi-led 1963-2002 status quo to reconnect with other members of the KANU old guard like Kibaki, Nyachae, Karume, Kalonzo, Biwott and so on. Given what lurks ahead- tremendous economic prosperity in the 2008-2018 decade: extensive oil finds in Northern and Coastal Kenya; a booming Sudan economy, a stable Somalia and an emerging sub-imperialist hub in Kenya dominating the East and Central African economy- the rich people in this country are determined to set aside their minor political differences to reap the commercial and financial bonanza in the coming years. It is in this light that I see KANU's attempt to veer closer to the fledgling NARC-Kenya make over of the old DP- itself a KANU clone party set up in 1992 to scuttle the FORD movement.

William Ruto- certainly no anti-imperialist- and his faction in the Rift Valley have woken up and sniffed the kahawa in terms of the emerging popular mood- a shift away from the political dynasties of yesteryear. Of course, there will be those who will be quick to point out that the leading figure in the ODM and LDP- Raila Odinga- is himself a member of a quite formidable political dynasty. The main difference of course is that the Odinga family has always symbolized-at the mainstream political level- the militant oppositionist trend hankering for a relatively different political dispensation- Jaramogi's Not Yet Uhuru has become a Pan African catch-phrase for shattered dreams and comprador led neo-colonial betrayal while Raila's eight and a half year stint in detention during the Moi era is a stubborn reminder that the Lang'ata MP will ALWAYS be an outsider within the mainstream despite whatever wealth his family may have acquired over the years.

In any case, I can safely predict that Uhuru Kenyatta will continue to self-destruct until he is reduced to political ash- before next year's polls. Kalonzo Musyoka will have to make a decision within the next two months whether he is going to get off the pot OR complete what people do when they get on the pot- in other words- will he or won't he officially announce his departure from the LDP?

It remains to be seen whether William Ruto and his allies will form another Rainbow Alliance or shift their allegiences to the LDP.

Whatever the case, Kenyans are in for a very exciting political ride.

Onyango Oloo
Nairobi, Kenya

[job]

Hi Folks,

The blitztkrieg begins in earnest. Despite Kibaki and Moi's temporary alliance of convenience, yet another faction within KANU is ready to bud off fully into the "armophous" ODM.


The Moi-Kenyatta axis

Kalenjins may rebel against former President
By John Cheruiyot (Kenya Times Insight)

“We want Gideon Moi! We want Gideon Moi!" The Uhuru Park crowd chanted.

“Mukae hivyo hivyo!" Gideon Moi replied mimicking his father moments after he addressed the mammoth crowd.

That was six months ago when ODM celebrated their landslide victory at Uhuru Park after the constitutional referendum that handed President Kibaki one of his most humiliating political defeats.

Gideon Moi had just been introduced to the crowd like all the other leaders from Rift Valley. But the crowd demanded a special address by Gideon–to which he obliged by conveying greetings from his father, retired President Daniel arap Moi, who became a darling of the masses. Everyone spoke well of him. Gideon Moi thus basked in his father’s glory.

The ODM brought the nation together and all the provinces towards a common cause. The ODM elevated William Ruto, Najib Balala, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi to the pinnacle of national politics. They became the epitome of the Orange Revolution. William Ruto was transformed to a hero in Rift Valley when his province actually fired the bullet that brought down the Wako Draft by delivering a whooping 1.2 million votes. Indeed that was the seed bed that nurtured and propelled Ruto’s ambition for the presidency. The Kalenjin community rediscovered their worth after the 2002 political wilderness when their candidate Uhuru Kenyatta was decisively demolished by Mwai Kibaki under the Narc revolution.

Moi’s reputation was shattered then. The defeat of the Moi backed candidate, Uhuru Kenyatta, was the worst humiliation the Kalenjin community had to be dragged through. For the first time they were on the receiving end. They also discovered that Moi, like any other mortal, had limited power and wisdom. They discovered that as much as Moi was a schemer, other people could scheme better. The community further suffered when its top technocrats were fired by the Kibaki government. It began by Kibaki's refusal to appoint one Dr Julius Rotich as deputy director of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission in spite of being cleared by the National Assembly. The Kalenjins were hence wounded and badly humiliated.They began to ask questions: "is Moi really a professor of politics? Are his wisdom and insights reliable?"

So the referendum was a healing process, a redemption and a renaissance. It gave the community a forum to embrace other regions and communities. The community rediscovered its identity and self-esteem.

The ODM thus was a great pillar of national unity and reunion. Moi was cherished and so was his esteem.

Six months after Moi denounced Ruto’s candidature for presidency. He has also rubbished the ODM.The old wounds thus have been uncovered. Moi’s reputation is back at its lowest ebb. By rebuking the ODM, Moi has rubbished the very vehicle that salvaged the Kalenjin esteem. William Ruto is the only link between the ODM and the community and Moi has essentially assaulted the link that ties the community to the Canaan they anticipated after the referendum. But Moi wants the community to stick with KANU because KANU is a national party, a party greater than ODM and LDP.

The community is totally unconvinced that KANU alone can make it. The community too is not amused that Uhuru Kenyatta is better than their own–William Ruto.

Moi is slowly parting ways with the community. Many see Moi’s interests as personal and not corporate. Why should Moi rebuke Ruto openly? Why should he denounce ODM again openly? Is KANU a national party? Is KANU felt in Nyanza? No. Is KANU a factor in Western? No. Is KANU a factor in Central? No. Is it a major player in Eastern? No. What of Coast? No. KANU without other parties is a crippled duck. Uhuru cannot even deliver his constituency's vote to Kanu, we saw it during the referendum. So what magic does KANU have that only Moi and Uhuru can see? Is this another 2002 fiasco?

KANU lost in 2002 when Moi took sides. When he supported Uhuru Kenyatta by trampling on other equally good contenders. His move to favour Uhuru was the end of Kanu, his current rejection of Ruto-ODM axis in favour of Uhuru-Kanu will cost Moi his reputation among the Kalenjin and the country as a whole. It will be a mission impossible for him to convince the Kalenjin to support Uhuru and not Ruto.

The community cannot see Moi’s logic any more. Open rebellion may follow and that would be disastrous. Moi should do what Nelson Mandela of South Africa is doing. Enjoy his retirement with his family outside the palace. Be a consultant for young leaders irrespective of party, region or ethnicity. Otherwise his pro-Kanu and pro-Uhuru stance may destroy Uhuru’s and Gideon’s political careers. Uhuru may in fact lose his Gatundu South parliamentary seat and the same for Gideon Moi in Baringo Central to more vibrant and independent leaders. What if this happens? Kenyans are asking: are Moi and Kenyatta a bi-monarchy? Are they a dynasty? Wasn’t it a privilege that they served the nation as president? Or were they preordained to monopolise Kenyan politics for ever? These are the tough questions Kenyans are asking. If the answers are in the negative, then Moi would better take Prof Arnold Toynbee's advice to Winston Churchill that, "the sun has set on England (read Moi) and it's already evening."

[job]

Other perspectives,

www.timesnews.co.ke/25may06/insight/ins5.html

www.timesnews.co.ke/25may06/insight/ins4.html

[roughrider]

I will make two responses to this post. The first is a simple and more philosophical interpretation of things. The second will be a rendition of what I think is popular political opinion.

The key word here is ‘self destruct’.

My philosophical reading of this post suggests that below and beyond all this is a fundamental materialistic and therefore class struggle. It is subterranean and it is about resources. Call it dialectical materialism if you like. In other words I agree with Oloo.

Sample this:

The 2002 rout of Moi, the ensuing and vicious war in Narc, the break-up of Narc, the Bomas tussle, the referendum, the removal of LDP, the Githongo dossier, Anglo-leasing and Goldenberg, the media raids, the rumblings in ODM, the KenGen IPO, the first arrest of cholmondley, his acquittal and his second arrest, the tea farm worker protests, the reports about inequality….

All these are closely connected processes. They constitute an ongoing sociopolitical awakening that (in my view) began to gallop in 1997. I have a feeling that the final push that will yield a new, more stable, status quo is coming soon.

There is a fundamental conflict in our society and it is the conflict of inequality; inequality in power and therefore economic relations; Inequality in economic and therefore social relations. When this inequality is stretched beyond a certain point it breaks. And this conflict will sooner or later lead to a revolution. The trick, Oloo, is to know who and what will trigger that and whether the conditions are right – perhaps it is this ODM thing that might ignite the decisive conflagration, maybe not.

I am not a very good example of Marxists: However it bits of it appeal to my intellectual bones and I use it occasionally and fuse it with other things – like I have done in this post. I bow out with a quote to drink to this Thursday:

"Marx's philosophy is a consummate philosophical materialism which has provided mankind, and especially the working class, with powerful instruments of knowledge."

Lenin, Three Sources & Three Component Parts of Marxism, March 1913, CW, Vol.19, p.25

[maina]

Roughrider,
Hear you,

"I am not a very good example of Marxists: However it bits of it appeal to my intellectual bones and I use it occasionally and fuse it with other things – like I have done in this post. I bow out with a quote to drink to this Thursday:

"Marx's philosophy is a consummate philosophical materialism which has provided mankind, and especially the working class, with powerful instruments of knowledge."

Now, in order for one to believe in a philosophy and adhere to it, one must at least understand that it (the philosophy) must apply to reality as we know - not as romanticize it! So when you say Marx did this or that, or that he said this and that, could you please be factual (as per reality as we know it today)?

Secondly, I will say this again for your sake; I am not attacking Raila. Actually, I'd like to see Uhuru for president, and quite frankly, he is unstoppable - not unbwogable! Raila does not matter at all to anyone besides the folks of Luo Nyanza. Why is this sooooo difficult for you to comprehend?

Halafu this business of catalogueing Uhuru with GEMA will not get you places. Uhuru does not have anything to do with GEMA. He is RVP predisposed! Actually, if you go to the indegineous GEMA constituencies, they will brazenly tell you that! 2007 is not a GEMA election, and nobody wants to hear GEMA. Fact!! It's about self-preservation - something uncustomarily Raila Odinga.

Maina

-unedited-

[dubois]

It is extremely difficult to tell how this scenario will play itself at this point. One of the columnists mentioned that most politicians are afraid of getting humiliated in 2007. I definitely agree, i think across the board, politicians on both sides are cautious about 2007. Kalonzo for example, may not leave ODM for fear of becoming irrelevant. Every politician knows that the chances of success are greater in a broad coalition. I won't be surprised if there are only two presidential candidates in 2007.

At this point, ODM has an advantage over the confused Kibaki's GNU. The advantage is not necessarily in numbers (voters) but better organization, a sense of direction (you must credit Raila for the two) and also the fact that they are in opposition. However, things could change rather quickly depending on how the power sharing is played out.

On the other hand, Kibaki's GNU still seems to be struggling with its identity. We have a frustrated Kombo and Ngilu; remnants of Dp; Narc-Kenya and all its youthful politicians who are still untested and the old man from Kisii who still seems uncommitted. I will make a bold prediction; unless something drastic happens to the remains of ODM, Kibaki has no chance in 2007 under the GNU. Kibaki, despite the massive loss in the referendum, still remains exclusive and has not shown any desire to share power with members of other communities. If the situation remains unchanged, some of the Narc-k mps, especially those from non Gema constituencies, will not see parliament again.

Moi's latest maneuver could offer some saving grace to Kibaki but it's unlikely to change the political equation drastically. The only way Kibaki can make a comeback is to re-organize his party, make a coalition with stronger politicians (probably woo Kalonzo) and distribute power to the main coalition partners. Nobody, perhaps except Kombo and Ngilu (who are politically irrelevant anyway), will want to join another Kibaki coalition then shortly afterward be reduced to errand boys. Honestly I think this is too much to ask of Kibaki and/or it might be too late.

[kamalet]

Couple of things so that peopl know where I am coming from. I am on record as not being a supporter of LDP and its luminaries, so I may not be entirely objective...but I shall try!!

The LDP political strategy has been pinned on an ongoing alliance in that armophous grouping called ODM. Unfortunately, mistaking Kenyan's rejection of the Wako draft to an endorsement of their policies, ODM leaders started fighting for leadership with some imaginative provincial chieftains having these lofty ideas that each one of them is a darling of Kenyans, and we shall swiftly hand over the sword of power come 2007.

What this led to was a slow but ensured disintegration of ODM and an initial trickle is appearing to be a haemorrage following Kanu's exit of the grouping (at least on paper!). Just like the period after the referendum, when ODM did not have a plan for the period after the referendum, even today, it appears that there is no plan within the LDP rank and file on what to do following Moi's statement that Kanu could go it alone (rather brave and silly I might add!) as this was bound to be endorsed in the NEC yesterday. What this means is that we can confidently say that ODM is a grouping of LDP and Ruto, but was this man not neutered yesterday at the Kanu NEC when the party made its statement?

I do not think it is sensible for LDP luminaries to wish away this problem as several factors are already working against their already fragile structures.The exit of Kanu exposes LDP to a situation where we narrow the fight to Kalonzo and Raila (for now we can ignore Balala)and considering that Kalonzo was hoping that the continued relationship in Kanu would play him in good stead in taming Raila (another dream!), he is now left covering his privates as he is grossly exposed, and chances are that he could retreat to his recently registered party. Should this happen (and I am rubbing my hands in glee!!!!)then LDP would be consigned to a small corner of Kenya plus of course Kamotho somewhere in Murang'a!

The other challenge that LDP should not ignore is the emerging Narc-Kenya. It will only be fools who will ignore this movement, and the attitude of LDP towards this outfit has been pretty ambivalent.

It is a high time that LDP seriously considers re-engineering itself...but will it?

[job]

Kamalet,

First of all don't assume that Kenyans are not proud of their collective effort through ODM to defeat the government's Wako draft. They still have expectations to get their desired constitution which this government has failed to facilitate (actually tried to trick them into an evil & hegemonistic scheme).

I know you are a Narc-Kenya and Kibaki supporter. Get this other perspective and don't sound too comfortable as if Kibaki has it all wrapped up, ready to dupe Kenyans again. As for Uhuru, the man did the right thing.

By Uhuru and Moi quiting ODM, they have only done Kenyans a big favour and reaffirmed the following;

- the only reason they joined ODM in the first place was to ride on the Anti-Wako sentiments
and clamour for a peoples constitution initiated by wananchi through ODM, to champion for
their own personal interests. Their ukora (attempt to steal the ODM thunder) has been
exposed and rejected resoundingly.

-they realized that they will not be the driving force behind the populist & pro-people's ODM
forces. ODM whose structures are deliberately & strategically being delayed (prior to
elections) is actually bound together by certain popular ideals,...not elected officials (for the
time being). ODM actually stands for ideals such as equitable resource sharing, devolution,
executive power-sharing, addressing of landlessness, etc etc all ideals that repell against the
kind of things people like Moi, Uhuru or Kibaki would stand for. It's no wonder it thrived during
the referendum Katiba campaigns. That is as simple to understand as the alphabet. It is
therefore easy to understand why ODM's support is strong in areas where devolution, land
& resource sharing calls etcetera are strongest. It has never been about people like Moi or
Uhuru. ODM remains as that and whatever name, or amorphous structures exist is irrelevant.

-that the Uhuru Project II with Moi still intending to rule through the youthful proxy is dead
& caput.

-that they (Uhuru & Moi) were actually salivating to have the same constitution that gives
absolute powers to the presidency remain in place ( they are happy to maintain the status
quo like Kibaki). While Kenyans are still mad that they don't have their desired blueprint for
governance (Katiba),....three people are actually very happy to have this situation prevail, i.e
Moi, Uhuru and Kibaki.

-that they (the trio above) almost think they can now proceed with their game plan to run
Kenya like a personal enterprise belonging to the Kenyatta and Moi dynasties (on one side)
or the Kibaki dynasty one on the other. That the rest of pumbavu Kenyans will make noise
and eventually endorse things according to their wishes.

They are all in for a rude shock.

ODM must save its energies for the right battles soon coming ahead.

Why are you not talking much about Narc-Kenya, is it that people don't pay too much attention to it outside the Banana territory or it's soon going to shake all corners of Kenya?

If you want to bet that Kenyans will not unite against Kibaki, Moi or his project Uhuru, simply
based on their corrupt inept and dirty past, ...and failure to facilitate the delivery of a people
based Katiba, then brace yourself for the coming together of wananchi for a common cause.

Uhuru Kenyatta was handed his political casket by Moi, who unilaterally bulldozed back into re-engineering Uhuru project II campaign, a second time. He will not be part of Kenya's new change.

Moi thought he was stealing the GEMA vote away from Kibaki and literally handing the Kalenjin vote to Uhuru through that naive scheme (Uhuru II). It has failed flatly on Uhuru's face. Moi thought he was helping Uhuru but alas, ...he has hurt him yet again.

Uhuru must not ever dream of commanding the GEMA vote so long as Kibaki is on the ballot, period ! Put it this way,.......So long as Kibaki is still President of Kenya, ...he will maintain solid GEMA support.
Moi's second miscalculation was the naive thinking that the Kalenjin will follow him blindly into a second round of humiliation which will eventually land them into political irrelevance and oblivion even within Rift Valley. Ruto has seized the moment and galvanized his people on his side, ready to play ball,...the Kenyan way. Yaani the tribal alliance building way.

Kamale, if you think ODM=LDP+Ruto, then I'll ask you to retake your tribal arithmetical classes (unfortunately the favourite major in Kenya).

As per Nov 2005; ODM= Kenya - (Mt.Kenya Mafia + a discombobulated Kombo + an unwilling Ngilu + a punctured Nyachae).

Which means ODM= Kenya - (Bananas & sycophants).

You need not be reminded of the cold isolation of the Banana group, post referendum. Even their sycophant wing, isolated the real Bananas,... until they were heavily bribed by stupid revenue-draining Ministerial positions.

You need not be reminded about the amount of State-House channelled bribery that Banana &Co. engaged in, and the vitriolic Banana hot-air like the "we will shake all corners of this country" type of talk.

ODM was > (greater than) the Banana entity above in brackets,...... despite all that.

All that has happened to ODM since then, is the decamping of Uhuru with "no one" in Central, and the decamping of MOI without Ruto and the disenchanted Rift Valley base.

The final blitzkrieg is coming despite the now too familiar reasurance talks such as "ODM is dead, KANU is this or that,..... LDP is this and that,...or wait until the "new", Narc-Kenya emerges etc etc. Emerges from where, DP?

Folks it is about people. The people of Kenya who have feelings and are waiting to express them have a stand on many issues including land, devolution, equitable resource sharing etc. they will certainly speak their mind out. The time has arrived for wananchi to upstage successive failing governments.

It is not about akina Kimendeero or Mungatana dancing to revive Kibaki's hopes in Narc-Kenya.
Kenyans are eargerly waiting to speak soon through their votes. Their votes will reflect their opinion on Anglo-Leasing, Goldenberg, Katiba, devolution and many other things which akina Kimendeero & other andu-aitu definitely have no time for.

peace.
unedited.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

Posted by: Toryboy83

Uhuru's decision to move KANU away from ODM worries me greatly, particularly as it seems Moi is attemping to sow another political stich-up for the general election and beyond. When will people realise this old dinosaur is given far too much legitimacy in what he says and does. It now seems that he relinquished the presidency to spend more time in politics. Given Kibaki's unmitigated failure as President, nothing would finish off a bad job better than to see Narc-Kenya and KANU jump into bed together. It will be very interesting to see which bed Ruto decides to take!

[Onyango Oloo]

Commentary published in the Standard, Friday May 26, 2006


Yes, KANU is capable of winning poll on its own

By Justin Muturi

Sentiments to the effect that no political party is capable of winning the next election alone have been expressed at many fora, and several newspaper commentators have been too blunt about it. Arguments to sweeten this school of thought have been varied, and include, among others, that a certain Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is a creation of the people of Kenya; that neither Kanu, LDP, Narc Kenya etc have what it takes to singly win an election; that Hon. Kenyatta cannot be expected to win over the hearts of Kenyan voters after a failed first time; etc.

Several of the above arguments appear sensible, but they are all defeatist in every sense. They seek to escape from the truth, which truth must guide our political wisdom. One truth is that some political Party shall win the 2007 election, unless of course an amendment is made to the election laws of the land. That political party could be Kanu, LDP, Narc Kenya, or even a political party resulting from political con game such as was Narc. Narc was a political con game because it was only a political party on paper coined to fool Samuel Kivuitu and his electoral commission of Kenya. Let us give Kenyans some credit at least for one thing; they know that Narc is a failed experiment.

Is the Orange Democratic Movement a creation of Mwananchi? Like it or not, the answer is NO. Orange was a creation of the Electoral Commission of Kenya as an election symbol for those opposed to the new constitution at the referendum. ODM was first coined by the Hon. Najib Balala when he rose to speak at a referendum rally held in Kisumu city (the venue is interesting). His message was clear, that those opposed to the new constitution had agreed to rally mwananchi together in one party to be called Orange Democratic Movement. Almost simultaneously, placards emerged from the crowd bearing the ODM message. This is the eighth month since and it is late to ask when and where the placards were made. But we are told that mwananchi created it! That is kindergarten stuff.

And because the orange mwananchi is either Kanu, LDP etc, they have been urged to abandon their parties and come together as that ODM. And any one who wishes to oppose president Kibaki’s Government must jump onto the ODM ‘bus’. And if any one chooses to go it alone, then Kenyans are supposed to consider him (or her) a traitor and reject him. Really, there are Kenyans in this country who are skilled planners. The problem is in what traditional Mbeere proverbs termed as ‘placing a snare on a rock’, where even the most stupid animal cannot be caught! In this game, there is the wise club, whose technical director is Prof. Anyang Nyongo, a real professor of political science. The coach is Raila Odinga. The leading strikers are William Ruto and Najib Balala (he is out injured). The midfield is packed with the stupid guys, but none can see the goal posts (anyway, their job is only to feed the strikers with the ball). So they have been told that none of them can score! The coach is smiling.

Suddenly, the field is chaotic. One "m.jinga" called Uhuru Kenyatta has seen the light, has identified the snare and has bolted out. The coach is raging with anger. He pours vitriol. There is exchange of gunfire. So much for that

That Uhuru led his Party Kanu in bolting out of the ODM means that without one key partner, the entity is in thick mud. Is Kanu’s decision guided by any wisdom? Uhuru offers two explanations. One, if indeed no single political party can win the next election alone, then Kanu has a golden chance to build itself into a political party that can win. He has a point. In a race where there is no clear favourite, what is the best thing to do?

His indirect argument is that the best thing to do is to train more and emerge the best in a club of equals. Quite noble! But he has another hurting question; who is actually coalescing? Is it mwananchi or a bunch of power hungry individuals with no agenda for the people? The answer is still out there.

Uhuru drops another bomb while addressing Central Province Kanu adherents; that in all the orange meetings he has attended, no agendum meant to address issues that matter to mwananchi has arisen. It is power agendum number one, power agendum number two, power, power and power.

But Vice Chairman Dalmas Otieno, liked or not, has a more academic approach. There is no known example in any country of a pre-election coalition formed for purposes of winning elections. The existing example was a failure. It was in Kenya. The coalition was called Narc. And Dalmas argues that coalitions are only formed after elections for purposes of constructing a government that will survive. If the coalition is before the election, it is called a merger. In that case, the constituent parties are supposed to dissolve and form one party. Quite sensible. Look at NARC. It is the party in power. Its leader occupies state house. Yet, the same rulers have formed another party called Narc Kenya, opened a party office next to state house, and agreed to work hard to get to state house. Dear God, the guys are flying flags!

Back to Uhuru. He argues that he has no business leading Kanu if he truly believes that it cannot win the next elections. On that alone, Kanu has never had a better chairman. This chairman wants to be faithful to the people who elected him chairman. Many countries will wish they had such a president. A faithful president, who can find? That is food for thought for the Party’s Secretary General.

So will Uhuru win the 2007 election? Voters will tell. Can he win? Yes he can. Uhuru has chosen a different methodology. He wants his party to work for its victory, not to ride in some wave whose direction cannot guarantee the party’s survival as a distinct political party. This is where he parts ways with his Secretary General. The latter is so scared of being in the opposition for another five years that he is willing to go to hell if that is where power be found. Uhuru appears to be telling Ruto: even a hungry farmer does not eat the seed!



The writer is an MP and Opposition Chief Whip

[job]

Only a strong party can help Kenya
*****************************
Story by SALIM LONE
Publication Date: 5/26/2006

One of the most dangerous elements in last November’s proposed constitution was a little-discussed provision which prevented presidential candidates from running for a seat in Parliament.

The constitution’s passage would, in one fell swoop, have decapitated their parties and wiped out all opposition leaders from the political arena, handing the incumbent president near absolute sway over the political landscape.

Weakening opposition political parties was, in fact, the approach adopted by President Kibaki’s administration when it sought, right after the 2002 Narc election victory, to marginalise Mr Raila Odinga and LDP.

The President began poaching, with ministerial appointments, MPs from political parties which had actually opposed Narc, without seeking an alliance with the parties themselves.

Vibrant national force
---------------------------

It is a supreme irony that, ultimately, it was Narc that destroyed itself in the process. LDP and ODM leaders emerged as a new and vibrant national force, and Kanu’s alliance over the referendum with LDP resurrected for it a measure of legitimacy, most of which had been destroyed by its long years of oppressive rule.

Because of the ODM’s referendum victory and Narc’s 2002 success, most of our leaders seem to have become convinced that coalitions are the indispensable way to victory.

This conviction has been the stuff of headlines for weeks now. So even as former President Moi and Mr Uhuru Kenyatta got Kanu’s National Executive Committee to pull out of ODM on Tuesday, the NEC still explicitly declared that the party would continue to explore coalitions – and Mr William Ruto, Mr Chris Okemo and other members refused to leave ODM.

We could be witnessing another political party’s self-destruction.

The elevation of coalition-building to its current pedestal should worry those seeking early solutions for eradicating poverty, dehumanising joblessness and landlessness that afflict more and more of our people even as criminals possessing vast amounts of wealth continue to enrich themselves through state-sanctioned theft.

Coalitions do have their place, as we saw in 2002. But accommodating their partners' diverse goals waters down the tough commitments needed for reform, since the alliance’s principal goal is always about power. Rows begin immediately thereafter.

So, a strong political party led by a charismatic chief who manages to gather under its wings progressive regional leaders committed to addressing their people’s concerns, is what Kenyans need.

This is not an easy task. How often do we hear our major leaders, including even those we know to be pro-poor, talk of policies needed to alleviate poverty?

The need for large amounts of capital to mount campaigns is comprehensively undermining democracy and preventing the emergence of parties that could win popular support and elections on their own. And so the fixation with coalitions.

But it is interesting to see that the one party least likely at the moment to win on its own – Kanu – is being led by Mr Moi and Mr Kenyatta to reject a coalition.

While the image of an elderly former president striding the land to rally support for his party is unprecedented, it is absurd for some political leaders to condemn him for doing so. He has every right to campaign, as long as his party is not objecting.

But politically, Mr Moi has miscalculated profoundly. In taking charge of the party line, he has undermined his protégé Uhuru, and Kanu itself. So it is safe to assume that his higher goal was to prevent any coalition with his nemesis, Mr Odinga, who cost Kanu the 2002 election.

In opposing Mr Odinga, it is also safe to assume that Mr Moi will have the support, public or otherwise, of all the other genuine 2007 contenders, including President Kibaki, all of whom happen to be part of Kenya’s mainstream political establishment.

Mr Odinga, on the other hand, despite his having served as Kanu secretary-general after disbanding NDP, remains a relatively unpredictable outsider and continues to play the role of a political activist. Love him or hate him, Mr Odinga is currently the country’s most formidable individual political strategist.

With Kanu in new disarray, LDP at the moment is the only major party still intact. An anti-Raila unity from the other political players makes excellent sense for the contenders, especially since he continues to be dogged by a widespread perception that he cannot be elected President.

Opinion poll ratings low
------------------------------

But President Kibaki’s opinion poll ratings, slightly above 20 per cent and lower than Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s, are abysmally low for a sitting president.

So if Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka found a way to accommodate their competing interests, LDP would be a powerful electoral force, especially if a couple of its ODM allies from other parties joined it.

This group conveyed a dynamic, youthful and national image during the referendum. One of its weaknesses was leadership gender imbalance, Linah Kilimo excepted. Its other even more problematic weakness was the absence of support from the key, and populous, central Kenya region.

But it is far too early to tell what will happen at election time: President Kibaki has a remarkable ability to rebound. LDP could suffer serious divisions in the party elections now underway, while Narc Kenya, which has some youthful heavy hitters like Martha Karua, Mutahi Kagwe and Mutua Katuku, could emerge as a strong national force.

And ethnic divisions encouraged by leaders will as always continue to haunt us, with unpredictable results.

Mr Lone, a veteran journalist, writes on national and international issues

[roughrider]

Quoting Maina:

Actually, I'd like to see Uhuru for president, and quite frankly, he is unstoppable - not unbwogable! Raila does not matter at all to anyone besides the folks of Luo Nyanza. Why is this sooooo difficult for you to comprehend?

End of quote

Maybe Raila does not matter at all; he certainly did not matter in 2002 and he won't matter in 2007. Go and tell Uhuru your wierd sychophantic conclusions and he'll rue the day he began to listen to the likes of Maina Gichohi and Justin Muturi.

It is incredible myopia for anyone to label a politician as ‘unstoppable’. Humility is an important attribute; arrogance and taking voters for granted is not. Uhuru and his cohorts better learn that.

Presidential candidates have not outlined their policies; they have not told us what they stand for and we may not judge them on that score yet. However it may be interesting to ask ourselves why we should elect Uhuru Kenyatta as the next president? Does he have the leadership qualities that a developing country, riddled with social and political malaise demands?

Put another way; why wouldn’t roughrider vote for Uhuru? Here are six preliminary reasons that have nothing to do with economic and social policies.

1. Kenyans abhor tribalism; Uhuru, by shunning broad coalitions is retreating to the comfort of tribal cocoons. He is steering Kenya back to misri.
2. Uhuru is not his own man. He has never been his own man. His career has been built in the image of Moi. He is still very much a Moi marionette
3. Uhuru is too wealthy. Filthy, obscenely, immorally rich – A boy born with a golden spoon in his mouth is not expected to conceptualize what poverty is. When we talk hunger, can he understand?
4. His pedigree is tainted. The Kenyatta family is only rich because Kenyans are poor. Years of grabbing, skewed economic relations and other economic transgressions visited on the people of Kenya have fed this Kenyatta purse.
5. Kenyans are not ready for Kanu again
6. Kenyans are not ready for another Kikuyu presidency

The turmoil in Kanu that Onyango Oloo is describing is because William Ruto is commanding and appealing to a surprisingly big majority of the Kalenjin voters; leaving Uhuru and Moi with nothing much beyond the usually coteries of sycophants and hangers on out to make a quick buck..

[emmo]

For all the talk of turmoil in KANU, I am glad that it has leaders who resort to explaining their positions in the Press, instead of insulting one another in barazas.


RR,
I am not sure there is any sense in your point no. 5. After all Kanu is in government. One cannot be more KANU than the likes of K|baki, Awori, Nyachae,etc. Or is it the name itself you are allergic to?

emmo's trouble with Uhuru.
1)Ukabila,throughout, even when he must have, as in the case of Anglo-leasing, Uhuru failed to hold Kibaki and his crew to account. Yes, even when after speaking to John Githongo and all. His most ardent supporters, Dalmas excepted ( and Dalmas we know is only supporting Moi and fighting Raila) are all GEMA folk.


2)He must have given the worst performance by a Leader of the Official Opposition ever. Apart from showing that he can choose a great Shadow Cabinet, he has done nothing to lead it into a cogent government in waiting. Can even Uhuru's most ardent supporters explain what his party's policies are? When Justin Muturi accuses L D P of being all about power, power, power, what pray has been K A N U about?


3)Blood money. The trouble really is not that we are consumed with jealousy at Uhuru's billions, but that he has not shown the necessary opprobrium that such wealth ( especially given its origins) should bring. I was shocked to see him cynically wedge himself into the Cholmondeley case as a friend of the little people.


4) Guilt by association. In the Githongo dossier, we heard one official remark to another about Kibaki, 'he was in government for may years, he knows how these things are done.' A President whose very prosecution of a successful campaign is built upon stolen wealth is unlikely to serve as a protective barrier when the coruppt hordes come calling.

[mzee]

Kenyans are still seething with anger at the fact that Kibaki and his MKM bunch are continuing to stifle the BOMAS draft constitution. But as always this bunch is composed of spineless, greedy and non strategic individuals. You all remember their now infamous outburst prior to the referendum that “they would shake every corner of the country”. The fact is that every corner of the country shook them.

I understand that the so-called Narc-Kenya is being built as a “return ship” for the politically limping Mwai Kibaki. The party standing between the return ship and state house is LDP. It has therefore to be destroyed by all means necessary

The person who Kibaki thought could do the job was M1. They figured that by pulling Uhuru out of the ODM game, Raila and co would simply recoil into their shells never to be heard of again. Even though M1 claimsto be a professor of politics, his old tactics- which are only applicable in a situation where he is not seriously challenged- are no march to Railas ability to reinvent himself almost instantaneously. This ability of self-rejuvenation is what has kept Raila going. Its what has kept his enemies guessing his next move. M1 is still hanging on his old retrogressive loyalty based style of father-die-replace with son, husband-die-replace with wife etc.

I have no problem with UK but I wonder where his head is? If he was a man of his own he would have stopped M1 from picking candidates to the forth coming by elections. If he felt he did not have the ability to pick the right person, he could have asked M1 in private to point out a candidate for him, and then he (UK) would have pretended to do it by himself. The problem is the MO1-KIBAKI axis is actually reducing UK, to use a jua kali terminology, “a spanner boy”. On the other hand all these is sweet music to Kibakis ears, for he knows that by one simple move (however unplanned) he has lead UK, kanu and his mentor into a path of self-destruction.

Another person who gained from the saga is William Ruto who has become stronger and stronger in RVP at the expense of UK. I have more than once asserted that when the chips are down, only a few Kalenjins would vote for UK/M1 instead of a combined force of ODM/LDP/Ruto. The ultimate gain howver goes to ODM/LDP. Focus has all of a sudden shifted to them, thereby gaining the much-needed exposure. Apart from that showing Uhuru that he is not after all the ultimate boss in Kanu.

I wonder where KOMBO and NGILU are in this equation

[kamalet]

It is amazing how we hide behind amorphous groupings to appear credible whilst we are in serious trouble. I am convinced that ODM (i.e. LDP + Ruto) is in trouble and its credibility is at question, but what I see are people in denial who actually refuse to acknowledge the situation.

I think the most important question is just how many MPs does Ruto control in Kanu/Rift Valley? Currently the number is 6 and he still has not reached the magical 14 he set out to get when he started his little mission. Ruto needs the 14 so that he can negotiate with whoever gets into power and he will leave LDP if he thinks any other side is winning, so let us not just count on him.

What I would have hoped to see the ODM?LDP supporters in this forum do is actually acknowledge and discuss the looming crisis and not worry about and demonise those that they have lost in the struggle.

[mzee]

Kamalet,
Ruto has been on the war path with UHURU for less than two months and he already has 6 MPs on his side. Give him another six months and he might just get the magic number. I do believe that Kanu is in more trouble than ODM. Its so shaky is might crumble any time. Sorry to tell you that

[mossad]

Iam one of those Uhuru supporters who thinks the man is making a big mistake by ditching ODM. I mean from evaluating the situation seriously, one will conclude that Uhuru brings nothing ot the ODM and takes nothing from it. Infact if Uhuru was to run in a Kanu ticket, he will harm Kibaki more than ODM and their chanses(Kibaki and Uhuru) will diminish drastaically. I think ODM still stands a better chanse and MOi is just wasting his time trying to push Uhuru to the electorate. He tried that once and failed so what makes Moi sure that this time he will win. Some guts just seem never to learn from ther mistakes.

Mossad.

[maina]

Kamale,
Even though I risk being branded as a tribalist by supporting you and Uhuru, I must agree that you have spoken discernibly. I continue to agree with you on this matter. There are just certain things folks who argue against Uhuru (especially when they employ negative campaigning in their arguments) will never understand. This self-assertive business of reckoning Uhuru is pecunious, is Nyayo's mime, et cetera, and thus should not be considered as a practical presidential aspirant will surely cost them! There is also no dout that what's left of the ODM (that is LDP) and its wooers are in incredible denial.

Plus, and for the first time since I've been on this blog, Roughrider and Emmo are exhibiting humourless rhetoric in their LDP electioneering remarks above. Actually, swimming in the dirty pools so characteristic of Raila Odinga will not get anyone places.

And Roughrider, isn't what Justin Muturi said what I have been saying all along? But if you carefully remember, I never supported Uhuru, until he ditched ODM. That demonstrates a leader's mature and visionary comportment rather than hanging out with a bunch of purposeless blowhards who carelessly assume that Kenyans will vote in a president based on the referendum results.

I have told Job before that as much as Kenyans aspire for all the beauteous things he, Roughrider, Emmo, Oloo, and others talk about, election politics is not about emotions. No, it's about politics - how well one can play politics. There is no one in the ODM right now that incontestably ostends the makings of a good politician whoc can play politics and get elected. That ODM horde is soooo awfully packed with emotions. True, they may be good leaders but that is different from the presidency. An example is Kibaki; a good DP and GEMA leader who played politics to get elected but turned out to be what he is today - detestable. Actually, Abraham Lincoln said it well in these words, "......nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, let him get to power".

You see Kenya is a very conservative nation. That means that Kenyans will always vote based on their basic identities (the tribe), and then moral values and religious beliefs and then finally, how much a politician exhibits and can enhance solidarity. Election politics in Kenya have absolutely nothing to do with classism like ODM wooers thoughtlessly conclude. Come on now, Kamale, as much as you and I will vote Uhuru in, whom do you think the likes of my good friends Roughrider, Job, Miguna, et al will vote for and why? Do you see what I'm saying?

One last thing, Nyayo as we all know him failed once - which is very uncharacteristic of him. I am talking about 2002! Since we know this, has Nyayo ever been known to make the same mistake twice?

Peace!

Maina

-unedited-

[dubois]

To quote Maina,

You see Kenya is a very conservative nation. That means that Kenyans will always vote based on their basic identities (the tribe), and then moral values and religious beliefs and then finally, how much a politician exhibits and can enhance solidarity. Election politics in Kenya have absolutely nothing to do with classism like ODM wooers thoughtlessly conclude. Come on now, Kamale, as much as you and I will vote Uhuru in, whom do you think the likes of my good friends Roughrider, Job, Miguna, et al will vote for and why? Do you see what I'm saying?


This has been my argument all along. We have these characters who are hell bent on convincing everyone that there is a homogeneous group called 'the kenyan voters/people' who have endorsed ODM (LDP + Ruto) as the government in waiting. These people are either idealistic loonies or more likely, Raila's henchmen.

[job]

I'll repeat that Uhuru did the right thing to bolt out of ODM. He shares nothing in common with ODM. But so long as Kibaki is still in the ballot, Uhuru and his faction is nothing.
In case Kibaki is out of the ballot,.....& Uhuru is in, then this might just be taken basically as another Moi candidature. Yes, Moi running again.

I get amused when a bunch of tribal chauvinists coalesce their feelings and cheer each other in unbridled optimism that will of course lead them nowhere. Just reminds me how akina Kiraitu, Murungaru and Ndwiga used to chest-thump arrogantly while bleating some tunes of invincibility. That was just the other day.

The writing is clearly on the wall in the Kenyan context, and real signs have come and passed,.....and clear indications continue to prevail across the nation (for those who care to research a little, or mingle outside their communities).

All despicable actions by inept and tribalistic leaders, (grand corruption, Anglo-Leasing, Goldenberg, favouritism, nepotism, land grabbing, tax-evasion, failure of Katiba, failure to control price of basic commodities like Unga etc etc) will soon resurface and the political price will be paid in earnest.

Of course, such ills are often dismissed as trivial by tribal foot-soldiers and puritans like those gracing Jukwaa, as they continue cheering on their inept & greedy god-fathers and spewing false prophesies depicting denial, and self-assurance. One such doomsayer predicted here in this forum and lectured us on how people will vote during last year's referendum. He even gave enthusiastic pro-Banana estimates and projections across Nairobi and the rest of the country. He intimated at how "their" cousins such as Akamba will predominantly vote conservatively "with them" alongside Ngilu.

Of course he never revisited this site for weeks after the referendum results were out. It turned out he was embarrassed beyond belief. He was however right in one thing though.......... That people would vote tribally.
Yes they did vote tribally in a fashion that depicted a unique cumulative frequency pattern,..... which actually exposed one tribe voting one way and the rest of the tribes another. The voting graph was quite "graphic" in it's details.

Well, we are hearing such voices yet again, back to the land of prophesy and sooth-saying. Ati the referendum results must be ignored because people will NOT be voting for a Katiba this time, but actually voting "conservatively" to retain a certain chosen & tribal status-quo, yaani people will just vote for "one of their own" be it Uhuru or Kibaki. It must also be STRESSED ati they are both "religious". Sounds quite brilliant and logical!!!!!! Just depends on whom you are addressing. A lot of people are not dummies.

I wonder whether some people occasionally pause and ask whether there is another side to such wild & warped theories.

It may be normal for some people to jump out of their skins in the threat of political competition and possible alternative leadership which may expose just how bad Kenya has been misgoverned before. (Kenyatta/ Moi / Kibaki hang-overs)

According to their supporters,.... atrocities or injustices committed by such leaders should be forgiven, forgotten or simply ignored then people just proceed "conservatively" and vote tribally and people basically get .............more of the same!

If any other Kenyan outside their ethnic community declares intent to offer alternative leadership, then they automatically become ................a "target-enemy". Ruto is the latest target. Kalonzo has been, but Raila has perpetually been the ever present target.

It is easy to understand now why certain people never want to have Kenya's constitution changed, since it can easily enhance increased turn-over of governments quite successively.

Kibaki may have actually effortlessly helped the nation of Kenya, mature quite politically.

unedited.
Job.

[maina]

job said:

I'll repeat that Uhuru did the right thing to bolt out of ODM. He shares nothing in common with ODM. But so long as Kibaki is still in the ballot, Uhuru and his faction is nothing.
In case Kibaki is out of the ballot,.....& Uhuru is in, then this might just be taken basically as another Moi candidature. Yes, Moi running again.

I get amused when a bunch of tribal chauvinists coalesce their feelings and cheer each other in unbridled optimism that will of course lead them nowhere. Just reminds me how akina Kiraitu, Murungaru and Ndwiga used to chest-thump arrogantly while bleating some tunes of invincibility. That was just the other day.

The writing is clearly on the wall in the Kenyan context, and real signs have come and passed,.....and clear indications continue to prevail across the nation (for those who care to research a little, or mingle outside their communities).

All despicable actions by inept and tribalistic leaders, (grand corruption, Anglo-Leasing, Goldenberg, favouritism, nepotism, land grabbing, tax-evasion, failure of Katiba, failure to control price of basic commodities like Unga etc etc) will soon resurface and the political price will be paid in earnest.

Of course, such ills are often dismissed as trivial by tribal foot-soldiers and puritans like those gracing Jukwaa, as they continue cheering on their inept & greedy god-fathers and spewing false prophesies depicting denial, and self-assurance. One such doomsayer predicted here in this forum and lectured us on how people will vote during last year's referendum. He even gave enthusiastic pro-Banana estimates and projections across Nairobi and the rest of the country. He intimated at how "their" cousins such as Akamba will predominantly vote conservatively "with them" alongside Ngilu.

Of course he never revisited this site for weeks after the referendum results were out. It turned out he was embarrassed beyond belief. He was however right in one thing though.......... That people would vote tribally.
Yes they did vote tribally in a fashion that depicted a unique cumulative frequency pattern,..... which actually exposed one tribe voting one way and the rest of the tribes another. The voting graph was quite "graphic" in it's details.

Well, we are hearing such voices yet again, back to the land of prophesy and sooth-saying. Ati the referendum results must be ignored because people will NOT be voting for a Katiba this time, but actually voting "conservatively" to retain a certain chosen & tribal status-quo, yaani people will just vote for "one of their own" be it Uhuru or Kibaki. It must also be STRESSED ati they are both "religious". Sounds quite brilliant and logical!!!!!! Just depends on whom you are addressing. A lot of people are not dummies.

I wonder whether some people occasionally pause and ask whether there is another side to such wild & warped theories.

It may be normal for some people to jump out of their skins in the threat of political competition and possible alternative leadership which may expose just how bad Kenya has been misgoverned before. (Kenyatta/ Moi / Kibaki hang-overs)

According to their supporters,.... atrocities or injustices committed by such leaders should be forgiven, forgotten or simply ignored then people just proceed "conservatively" and vote tribally and people basically get .............more of the same!

If any other Kenyan outside their ethnic community declares intent to offer alternative leadership, then they automatically become ................a "target-enemy". Ruto is the latest target. Kalonzo has been, but Raila has perpetually been the ever present target.

It is easy to understand now why certain people never want to have Kenya's constitution changed, since it can easily enhance increased turn-over of governments quite successively.

Kibaki may have actually effortlessly helped the nation of Kenya, mature quite politically.

unedited.
Job.

Sorry Job, you just don't get it! This ain't gat nothing to do wih emotions..................it's merely election politics!!!!! If you really need to help Raila, please read my previous post carefully. Either way, he has no chance against one Uhuru Kenyatta!

Maina

-unedited-

[dubois]

There comes a point when we just have to wait and see. Job is obviously completely convinced that 'Kenyans' will overwhelmingly vote ODM and make Raila president in 2007. Except the tribalists, bananas and other sycophants. I hope, in 2007, he wont have to stay away in shame like that fellow he described. Go Raila GO!!!!

[aeichener]

job said:

I get amused when a bunch of tribal chauvinists coalesce their feelings

Just look who is talking. *sigh*

Let me inform you, once and again, that tribalism is not a trait innate to one specific tribe alone, as you here allege again in this your posting.

No, it is the thing which you should see in the mirror.

Alexander

[mzee]

job, you could not be more right. Let the daydreamers and evil promoters on this forum dis you but you are perfectly hitting the notes kenyans are hitting. Chris Okemo, kanu vice chairman said as follows "...ODM is ingrained in the peoples minds.....i cant preach otherwise...." Now for those ODM haters, u have a long way to go. Just like your silly belief in BANANA you are back with PROJECT 11. Sorry

[job]

That's what I was talking about.

I previously addressed a "bunch of people" without mentioning names. You will all realize that in Knee-jerk reflex, they all responded in earnest,...quite successively. People actually appreciate the traits they possess quite consciously.

The message remains the same. Maina, there is absolutely nothing about emotions but politics in my post,......stop expressing your personal manifestations aloud, in public. You would be better off confining such manifestations more privately.

Politics & voting in Kenya is tribal as you said,.......but Kibaki has effortlessly helped enhance such tribal patterns of voting that will continue dominating our society rather than curtail it.

To Dubois,...your sweeping conclusions obviously point at one thing,...that you are chronically inherent to misinterpret basic messages. Don't confuse ODM for one individual called Raila. Must you always SEE the face of Raila in anything LDP, ODM, Orange etcetera. At this rate
you may soon go psychotic brother, and join our confused bro Alex,.....the deranged one-line specialist who lives by his mirror.

peace.
unedited.
Job.