ADONGO:The Banana Republic Is Upside Down

[Onyango Oloo]

By Adongo Ogony


Part I:

Things are getting a little too hot across the land over the much-despised Wako Constitution and I think we need to calm down and get a few things straight.

Number one. Our country will be well and alive on November 22, the day after the referendum vote, unless of course Kibaki refuses to accept defeat like they did after the Bomas delegates finished their work on March 15, 2004.

There is no need for alarm about tearing the country apart and all that nonsense. Kibaki will suffer the most humiliating defeat in his lifetime on November 21, 2005 just like Moi did on Dec 27, 2002. His only responsibility will be to accept that defeat gracefully and move on. It is not the end of the world. Kibaki is a rich man and has been in politics for close to half a century. I think it is time for Mzee to chill and enjoy himself in Muthaiga.

Two things, which are just plain nasty, happened in the last couple of days. The most ominous one is the attempt by Kibaki and his “Yes” team to manipulate the PCs and DCs and turn them into an election and possibly a rigging machine. The Office of the President has no business summoning all the DCs and PCs to Nairobi to meet the president over matters related to the constitution. It is not Kibaki’s job to make assurances to anybody on what will happen to them after the referendum. That will be determined by whatever constitution we have at that time.

The idea that Kibaki will create jobs for so and so after his preferred constitution is passed makes some of us even more scared about this new constitution they want. I know the Wako Draft gives immense and excessive powers to the president, but I didn’t know it actually allows Kibaki to just create positions and give jobs to so and so. Besides the PCs and DCs are not supposed to meddle in politics. Why is the Yes team dragging these people around to promise them jobs and threatening others with sacking like Mwariria did the other day? Leave the PCs and DCs alone and let them vote like any other Kenyan. In fact if the PCs and DCs were to vote solely on which constitution assures them of their jobs they would rather support the old constitution rather than gamble with an MOU with Kibaki. We all know where that usually ends up. In the dustbin at State House

The other nasty stuff is the ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuiti trying to issue a timetable for the constitutional campaigns. That is not his job. He is right to demand that we have in place basic guidelines like we have in General Elections where individuals can be disqualified for election offenses, but he has no business telling people when to campaign. Parliament never bothered to establish the rules for guiding a referendum. They were too busy celebrating the victory for those who wanted to kill the Bomas Draft. Now as Kenyans we have to police the entire system and I trust Kenyans will do that. We should remember what Kamotho told Moi and Uhuru before the 2002 General Elections when he quipped, “Even rigging has limits”. The kind of defeat Kibaki and his crew is facing is the type you just don’t rig your way out off. It is called a thorough whipping and that they must take. They have been begging for it since we put them in office.

I think we should categorically dismiss the growing calls to postpone the referendum ati because there is tribal tension in the country. Where is the tribal tension? I wouldn’t condone incidents like the Garissa Fiasco when apparently the entire town just refused to put up with the Yes folks. But the whole incident has nothing to do with tribalism. In fact some of the victims of the revolt by the populace were local MP’s. The people of Garissa should have given the Yes team a chance to address whatever concerns they had. It is the job of the law enforcement officers to ensure law and order. At any rate the No team has been holding massive rallies with hundreds of thousands of supporters and so far not a single incident of violence. Postponing the referendum would just postpone the problems we have to deal with over this constitution. It is time for Wanjiku to speak at the ballot box and Kivuiti should stop threatening Kenyans with his alleged powers to cancel the referendum.

What I find intriguing is that the Yes team is whining all the time about “provocations” and “abuse” from the No team and yet the entire team turned the sparsely attended rally in Kajiado as a Raila bashing contest. Tell the people what is good with the Wako constitution and stop the ridiculous paranoia and obsession with one person. The problems facing the Yes crew are way bigger than Raila Odinga. I’ll come to that shortly.

One thing I know is that the Yes team are going to go bananas when they realize the magnitude of defeat they are facing. Some of them are still in denial but reality is staring them in the face. In fact I have a sneaky feeling that Kiraitu and his team in the Kibaki camp are probably holding private prayers hoping that the LDP/Kanu team could revive that constitutional case to block the referendum. Why do I say this, after all Kiraitu and crew have argued vigorously to have the case thrown out and let Kenyans go to the referendum? Well that was three weeks ago and this is now. In politics three weeks can be a very long time.

One more thing before I forget. Yes a good number of the CKRC Commissioners are in the pockets of Kiraitu Murungi and company. Yes Abdi Ali-Aroni, the CKRC Chairperson is a complete national disgrace for being a traitor to Wanjiku whose views she collected and now hides in a locker somewhere while peddling a constitution that has nothing to do with the views Kenyans gave the CKRC Commissioners. But lets not forget that there are a few very principled CKRC Commissioners who have stood firm and remained loyal to Wanjiku and not the moneybags. In fact Mutakha Kangu one of the commissioners driven out of Kenyatta Sports Ground in Kisumu has been one of the most outstanding commissioners who has stood very firm in support of Wanjiku. I am sure he understands why people are pissed off with them but we can do better.

I know I personally warned Abdi-Ali Aroni in my last article (Kenya Times Sept, 8, 2005) that her team will face the wrath of Kenyans if they are perceived to be biased. Now she knows what we were talking about. Still I want to urge my fellow Kenyans to give the CKRC a chance. We should challenge them and ask them questions about what happened to the views, opinions and all the ideas we gave them, but please don’t chase them out of town. You are scaring the crap out of these folks who are used to driving their SUVs, giving lectures and seminars in hotels and resorts with flip charts and power points. Lets ask them who told them Kenyans want a presidential monarchy and some crazy thing called religious courts.

Continued.....

[Onyango Oloo]

(continued from Part I)

Part II

Talking about lectures and seminars. I find it amusing that some Yes campaigners are whining endlessly that the NO rallies are not educational and are mere meeting points for rhetoric. Get a grip people. Political rallies are not your little seminars in resorts at the coast where you spend half the time sleep going through heaps of paper. Political rallies involve theatre and drama. Anybody who thinks the NO campaigners are gong to organize rallies to bore people to death with the pros and cons of this and that article in the Draft is in the wrong business.

The truth is that the Yes campaign has started disastrously and the No team is beginning to look like a locomotive train gathering steam even before they reach the downhill stretch. Kenya politicians like to use the word “unstoppable” and this time they may have a point.

First the Yes campaign. If ever a referendum could be won on the basis of press conferences the Yes campaign would be coasting to a sure victory. Between Tuju, Kiraitu. Moody Awori, Michuku, Kivutha Kibwana. Mirugi Kariuki na mwengineo, the Yes campaigners have held more than twenty press conferences in the last week alone. Most of these press conferences are held in the relative safety of Parliament Building or in the hotels where obliging journalists gobble the junk from the Waheshimiwa throwing insults and threats and sometimes looking absolutely ridiculous carrying bunches of bananas.

By the way who bribed Kivuiti the ECK Commissioner to give this horrible symbol to Kibaki and his team. Raila the master of wining slogans didn’t take time coining the lasting image for the Yes team when replying to a journalist soon after the symbols were unveiled. Raila chuckled that Kenyans now have the opportunity to decide if they want to live in Banana Republic or not. It stuck and just like “Kibaki Tosha” the rest is history.

Anyhow, between the press conferences, the Yes team is frequently locked up in strategy meetings with Muthaura the Secretary to the Cabinet taking notes. I think the biggest strategy meeting Kiraitu and his crew is going to hold will be on November 22 after a bruising defeat is handed to them by Kenyans who can’t wait to let Kibaki know they are sick of the nonsense from his government.

What really is the problem with the Yes team? Lets begin with the obvious. They are selling rotten bananas to Kenyans and nobody is buying, but there is more to it than that.

This Yes team is structured around the president. Mzee Kibaki is their be all and end all. He is the horse they must ride to victory. The assumption they made which is turning into a nightmare is that Kenyans are still in awe of Mtukufu Rais. This is not surprising. Kibaki and the chauvinists who surround him have been mesmerized with the presidency from the very day Kibaki was sworn into office. They still live in the myopic world where the President’s word is law. May be that is why their constitution proposes a hopeless presidential monarchy in the land. These guys never understood the transformation of the Kenyan political landscape in the 2002 General elections. Kenyans freed themselves and changed the country forever when they threw out the Moi regime at the ballot box. Apparently nobody told Kibaki and the likes of Kiraitu what that means. Welcome to the brave new Kenya boys, sharpen your pencils and sit straight. Time to take some notes from the wananchi.

Yes there is huge advantage and awesome powers of presidential incumbency in Kenya. Kibaki carries with him the prestige of his office, but anybody who thinks that is going to translate into votes come November 21 is sleeping in the wrong bed.

In fact since the campaign started it is impossible to distinguish which functions the president attends in his official capacity as the president of the Republic of Kenya and which ones he attends in his personal capacity as the DP leader and a champion for the Yes Vote in the referendum. Lets look at the two “major” rallies the president has attended to “launch” the Yes campaign.

The first rally which was supposed to be the official launching of the Yes campaign was in Mwingi in Ukambani. This one started with controversy with the allegation that Francis Muthaura the head of the “Kibaki think tank”, had sent a warning letter to Kalonzo Musyoka to decamp from the No team or be fired. This was reminiscent of the days when Moi used to pass through Ukumbani ordering the same Kalonzo to quit the then Rainbow Coalition and rejoin Kanu immediately. Funny how the more things change the more they remain the same. Well Kalonzo would call the media immediately after such threats from Moi and basically tell him to get lost. Which he did, but that is for later.

Now the Mwingi rally had all the trappings of an official presidential visit. The PCs, the DCs down to the chiefs were all there to receive their boss. Politicians from across the divide were there and to his credit Kibaki did not dwell much on the Yes campaign. He made his pitch and promised all and sundry that the Provincial Administration will not be abolished by the new constitution. This of course was a blunder since the Draft is clear on the fate of the Provincial Administration, but what the heck the Kibaki team needs the PCs DCs DOs and the Chiefs and if that means a new MOU with the same about assurances for their jobs, who cares what the Draft Constitution actually says. The trouble is Kibaki had premised his campaign on challenging Kenyans to read the constitution and not to listen to “lies” from politicians. Now it appeared the Mzee himself either hadn’t read the constitution or he is reading a wrong one. The Mwingi rally turned out to be low key and the fury of Yes campaign shaking every corner of the land looked more than like a little whimper. I think that explains why the Yes team is still talking of “launching” their campaign. How many times do you launch the same damn campaign?

Then came the Mbooni rally. This was Kibaki’s second Yes campaign rally in Ukambani in less than a week. The president still used the trappings of his office in this rally, which was clearly a Yes campaign event and not a presidential tour. The tragedy of this rally is that the cabinet ministers including Martha Karua and Mwangi Kiunjuri and local Mps who rose to campaign for the Yes vote were booed and heckled right in front of the president. A stunned Joseph Munyao the MP for the area could not even bring himself to utter the word constitution and talked about a few irrelevancies before inviting the president to address the crowd. Kibaki took the hint from Munyao, one of his close confidants and simply told the wananchi to read the constitution and vote whichever way they wanted.

This rally is important for two reasons. One is the obvious hostility Kenyans have for this Yes Vote. Kenyans know what is in the constitution Kibaki wants them to endorse and they don’t like it. Secondly Kenyans are letting the leaders know that the politics of intimidation is over. Like I said before nobody is scared of the president and the poor MPs and cabinet ministers who thought they could hide behind Kibaki to rob Wanjiku are learning that the hard way.

Ironically this looks like what happened with Moi when he tried to impose Uhuru Kenyatta as the Kanu presidential candidate. That time, the fall out with the wananchi started in Kakamega, when ordinary folks booed leaders who accompanied Moi in a tour of the area as Moi headed to Kisumu.

Moi was shocked with the booing but bravely proceeded to Kisumu where Raila pleaded with the wananchi with a lot of difficulty not to embarrass the president. Moi was spared in Kisumu but the writing was clearly on the wall. Nobody was terrified of His Majesty anymore. They were ready to treat them with respect and accord them some civility but they were not putting up with the arrogance of power that made these people feel like they owned the people of Kenya.

The other piece the Kibaki monarchists did not factor into their strategy is that Kibaki has not been that much of a success in the campaign trail. He was thrashed by Moi both in 1992 and 1997 presidential elections. In 2002, the nasty accident he suffered spared him the rigours of chucking it out block-by-block, village-by-village and battling with Moi and Uhuru head to head. That task fell on Raila and people like Moody Awori and Kalonzo Musyoka. Kibaki came back to enjoy the historic victory and stunned Kenyans when he quickly turned his back on the people who worked so hard to get him elected and instead surrounded himself with ethnic chauvinists most of whom had no constituency outside there own villages. When Kibaki killed the Narc Summit he was under the illusion that he was now bigger than life itself and that is the mentality that is supposed to drive the Yes campaign. Unfortunately for them it is going to drive them bananas much sooner than they think.

The other aspect of the campaign is the sheer need of energy to swing from one end of the country to another. Does Kibaki have what it takes to do that? I doubt he does. The trouble is most of his top commanders are paper tigers. Who is going to attend a Kiraitu rally outside Imenti? And Mwariria going from school to school in his constituency? How sad is that? How many school kids are going to vote in the referendum? And then we have Murungaru, a complete embarrassment in the Kibaki cabinet. These are the guys to lead the campaign and Tuju will spearhead the Yes camp in Nyanza. Don’t laugh please, this is serious. These guys look like a circus team that came to town and forgot all their gadgets and the animals that do the tricks and now they are standing in the market square all alone and wondering why nobody is coming to the show. Hang tight fellas, help is on the way. Mzee is soon coming back from New York.

On amore serious note, we see the Yes team crumbling from all sides. Even Kombo is in big trouble. The other day the media reported that the Ford Kenya MP’s who met President Kibaki asked him to postpone the referendum. Of course Kibaki has no such powers. But the big question is why are the “Bananas” panicking? Why is there a crisis of confidence within the Yes campaign hardly one week into the campaign? Because they know what happened in 2002 and they see it coming and nobody wants to sit on the path of the political tsunami.

Is it any wonder that the Biwott faction of Kanu has formally ditched the Yes campaign? Biwott knows there is no constituency for the Banana vote in his backyard and he does not want to be on the wrong side of history twice in a row. Biwott too has called on Kibaki to recall parliament and renegotiate the so-called contentious issues before taking the Draft to the referendum.

And then there is the Moi factor. We all know Moi has no record to speak of when it comes to the constitutional order of our country. Unfortunately though, with the benefit of hindsight Kenyans have realized that he was honest about the constitutional change process. Moi was opposed to the idea of Wanjiku being in the driver’s seat of redrafting the Kenyan constitution. He wanted that task to be assigned to a team of experts. He was laughed out of town by the likes of Kibaki, Kiraitu, Kivutha Kibwana, Rev. Musyimi, Timothy Njoya and other Wanjiku “heroes” at the time. Well today the same people who ridiculed Moi for trying to side step Wanjiku have done exactly the same thing. And worse still, their Draft will give Kenya the worst form of presidential monarchy and personal dictatorship even unmatched in the Moi constitution, which they trashed while in opposition.

The real big deal with Moi taking a public stand against the Kibaki Draft constitution is that it sealed the fate of the “Banana Team” in the vast Rift Valley Province. Some of us may not like Moi, but it would be foolhardy to ignore the fact that he has a huge following in the nation, particularly in his home province of Rift Valley. When Moi added his voice to the No campaign it left no room even for the likes of Biwott to manouvre a little space for the Yes team in Rift Valley. That is why there were such bitter responses to Moi with some politicians threatening to have his “immunity” revoked so that he can be punished for his crimes. The bottom line is that the Yes Team does not even have a single point of entry into the Rift Valley, the very heart and soul of our nation at least geographically. Other than some lukewarm support in Nakuru, the Yes team is dead in the water when it comes to Rift Valley Province.

Is the Yes team already beaten. Absolutely NOT, and therein lies the dangers the No team will have to deal with. Lets look at some of the problems the No team will face in the remaining eight or so weeks to the referendum.

The first one is that the No team has peaked too early and like what happened in the Kisauni election when the LDP thought they had the seat locked up things could change rather quickly. There are two good things for the No team here.

First the Kisauni thing was a joke. Mwaboza won the seat with something like 3,000 votes in a constituency Karisha Maitha carried with more than 20,000 votes. The real deal here is that the No team has to stop relying on the huge crowds that show up at their rallies. They have to put structures on the ground that works everyday mobilizing voters, making sure people have their voting cards and national IDs on the ready. They have to form small teams in every corner and establish networks between these groups to share resources. They should mobilize people to go to the CKRC civic education meetings. I was very impressed reading about the CKRC meeting in Nyeri where wananchi were asking the CKRC why they discarded the views the people the commissioners. The wananchi were asking why the constitution has a useless PM when the president has all the powers. Kenyans need to challenge the CKRC educators on every aspect of the Kibaki constitution which as we know has nothing to do with what Kenyans asked for.

The other aspect of peaking too early which may work to the advantage of the No campaign is that politics is a game of momentum. Kenyan politicians are by and large opportunists. The more they see the mood of the nation decidedly opposed to the Kibaki constitution the more they switch sides. Why do you think David Mwenje joined the No team? Because he is not an idiot. So peaking early in this context is going to devastate the Yes team as they stagger from defection to defection from their ranks.

One thing to keep in mind is that this is a marathon not a sprint. But even in a marathon you don’t let your opponent’s circle you four times like the Yes dudes are doing. My sense is that what we are seeing is just the beginning. The more people look at the key provisions in the Kibaki constitution the more disgusted they are going to get and not vice versa like the Kibaki folks thought and I think by mid October the nation will be decided and the rotten bananas will be declared not even fit for starving monkeys and has to be discarded. Good riddance.

The other thing Kibaki and his folks never figured out is that unlike in the presidential election when Moi had to fight for his life he often faced more than one enemy. In 1992 he hang in there mainly with votes from the Rift Valley province and pockets of support here and there. The same thing happened in 1997. The saving grace for Moi in both cases is that his enemy who got the votes from Central Province could not get the votes from Nyanza or from Western Province. When the wananchi finally figured it out and forced the politicians to form an alliance, his time was up.

In a referendum it is Kibaki against the rest of the nation. This is like run-off elections. There are only two contestants. Kibaki thought all those MPs who supported his Katiba would go out there and order their constituents to vote for the constitution. The reality is the opposite. The smart MPs have already switched sides. The lost MPs are running around being chased by their own constituents. In fact just like we show in the 2002 elections, it is the voters directing the operations and the MPs have no choice, either join the people and turf out the garbage constitution from State House or stay in Nairobi and call press conferences. It is the wananchi who are building the alliance against the Kibaki constitution. The politicians are just following their orders. It is a pretty thing to watch and it attests to the political maturity of Kenyans that politicians often abuse.

Kenyans know what is in this constitution and they are following everything very keenly. The one thing that really complicates things for the Yes team is that they too agree that there are a lot of problems in the Kibaki Katiba, but their spin is that whatever is wrong will be amended later. The trouble is that some fool decided to put in the same Draft a provision that the constitution can only be amended after whoever wants to amend it first collects 1 million signatures gets two thirds vote in parliament and takes the amendment to a national referendum. Simply put, once we pass the Kibaki Katiba it cannot be amended because that process is practically impossible. We will be stuck with it for generations and that alone is just enough stupidity to throw this whole thing out. I don’t know what Nyachae and his PSC team were smoking in Kilifi but they really screwed things up.

Talking about Nyachae, how is the old man doing in the Kisii nation? Looks like he wanted to take our Kisii bothers and sisters once again on the opposite trend of history. This time I think he is in deep trouble. The folks down there know the man is politically finished and I doubt they are going to do his bidding. Well at least Kibaki can count on his vote. What a sad way to go. Nyachae’s name will be forever etched in history as the man who gave us a failed constitutional coup. Pole sana Mzee.

In general my advice to the No team is to keep focused on the big. Don’t worry about the Yes team, focus on your own campaign. Let Kiraitu shake every corner of Imenti until he turns yellow in the face, then visit the area yourself and talk to the people. Don’t buy into the tribal garbage that the Central Province is banana territory. Talk to the people there and if they tell you they are voting the other way accept their verdict gracefully and promise them they will be welcome to join the rest of the nation once the referendum is done.

The real big deal for the NO team is that Kenyans need to know what happens after they reject the Kibaki constitution. It is not enough to just say NO. We need a roadmap that will give Kenyans a democratic constitution and as everybody knows we are exhausted with the constitutional debate and confrontation. We need a clear road map that will not drag us though mud again. The No team should make very clear that a NO vote is not only against the Kibaki constitution is also against the old one we got from Moi. How then do we get the constitution we have fought so long for? This is my road map.

First let the No team sign an MOU with the wananchi that they will accept without reservations the 80% or so portion of the Bomas Draft constitution that everybody agrees with. We don’t need secret deals between politicians we need a clear and unequivocal commitment from the No team that they will not turn their back on the bulk of the Bomas Draft that Kenyans seem to have no problems with.

Secondly the politicians have to make it very clear that once the referendum is over they will reach out to the other Kenyans voting Yes. These are our fellow compatriots, they are our brothers and sisters and it is their right to vote whichever way they want. We have to acknowledge that whatever constitution we eventually come up with will be for all Kenyans whichever way they vote on the coming referendum.

Third I think it is time to accept that we are going to need an elected National Constituent Assembly to complete the process. The job of this Assembly would be first identify contentious issues in the Bomas Draft, discuss them and amicably resolve the issues. We need an assurance from the politicians on both sides that this time they will accept the verdict of the delegates and not run back to State House to sabotage the process.

Once we complete an all-inclusive Draft Constitution my inclination would be to dissolve parliament and hold General Elections and a Constitutional Referendum on the same day. That means Kenyans will have two ballot boxes on that day, one to elect the representatives and another to choose their constitution. That would put an end to this long and tedious journey and then we really need to focus the entire energy of the nation into fighting poverty. Our nation is dying before our very eyes and the politicians are laughing all the way to the bank.

We are told our economic growth rate is soaring to 5% from the 2% in 2002 and yet the people of Kenya are poorer today than they were in 2002. What the heck is wrong? I think it is not only the constitutional plan of the Kibaki government, which is upside down; our priorities as a nation are screwed up. There is too much wealth in too few hands and nothing for anybody else. We have to work our way out of this quagmire and we can do it. Our country is rich; it is the people who are poor. We have to solve this riddle and I personally have a million ideas I want to share with fellow Kenyans on how we can put food and hope into the hands of Kenyans.

The holocaust of HIV-AIDS and mass poverty is threatening the very existence of many communities in Kenya. Time to deal with Mr. Disease, Mr. Hunger, Mr. Poverty Mr. Endless Starvation and forget about Mr. Murungi. We can’t afford another round of constitutional foolishness. The politicians are lucky that the wananchi are not lynching them to protest the gruesome level of poverty among the people when the Wajumbe make close to a million bucks a month. President’s Kibaki Kshs 2 million salary is bigger than what they pay the Prime Minister of Canada who presides over an economy a hundred times bigger than that of Kenya. Heck I think our president makes more money than George Bush. Talk about having our priorities upside down.

One thing should be clear. As soon as we get rid of the Kibaki constitution the Mzee has to start packing. The movers will be at the gates. He still has two years to limb around but this referendum is really the end of the Kibaki error. It is truly astonishing that just three years after capturing power the inept circle of friends around Kibaki has literally handed power right back to the people we threw out. The truth is this process has been going on for a while. Kibaki invited Kanu into his government to fight the Bomas Constitution and now he has given Kanu a new lease of life over the same constitution. This is not just political incompetence it verges on outright insanity, but that is their problem.

The really good thing about this is that Kenyans are a lot smarter than they were in 2002. We trusted Kibaki with a blank chaque when he promised us a constitution in 100 days and his people have been pissing on us ever since. Kenyans will never give any politician such a blank chaque. No more MOUs between the wakoras known as politicians. Your MOUs are now going to be with the people of Kenya. We want to renew our social contract with the politicians based on a clear agenda of what they must accomplish for the nation and the people of Kenya.

We know that the alliance to throw out the Kibaki constitution is going to collapse right after the referendum and Kenyans don’t give a damn about that. Just get rid of this junk from Kibaki and go your own ways. What we know for a fact is that the new alliance to take our country forward after the Narc debacle is going to be an alliance that includes the progressive and democratic forces that have been fighting against the backward politics of Narc from day one of Kibaki rule. The real battle for a better Kenya starts right after the referendum. It is a battle we cannot wait to jump into. As for now lets give Kibaki what he has been asking for in the last three years. Lets tell him the people of Kenya are still more important than a few operatives whispering rubbish into his ears. Lets take back our country and lets do it with dignity and decisiveness. Yes bring it on.

Just one thing to keep in mind. I like the ideas of the Kajiado MP Major General (rtd) Joseph Nkiassery. He told the Yes team that they are welcome in Kajiado District. He was conveying the views of Maasai elders. He told the media the elders asked him to ask Kiraitu to come with a few sacks of the loot he promised to unleash in the campaign for the Kibaki constitution. And then he went on to say the Yes team should not be surprised that even after the sacks are delivered the folks will still vote NO. That is the spirit. Lets not have that nonsense of this is a NO zone and this is a YES zone. There is a reason we have secret ballots. The final decision is the voter’s. Now give me some orange, please.

The writer is a human rights activist.

[kamalet]

It is amazing the confidence of the NO campaign as suggested by Adongo. My only question is whether there is a Plan B should they fail to achieve the No vote.

[Onyango Oloo]

When Mwai Kibaki trailed Matiba and Moi in '92, did he give up? No, he rolled up his sleeves and went back to work- on the '97 campaign. When he was runner up in 1997, he did not relent and in 2002 Kenyans elected him President by a huge landslide.

The struggle for a democratic constitution in Kenya has been going on for at least 15 years- if we ignore the previous three decades of opposition to the one party dictatorship, especially after Kenya became a defacto one party state in 1969 and a dejure one party state in 1982.

Throughout that period, they have been twists and turns, advances and retreats, victories and losses. The destination is still the same.

Quite frankly this whole referendum thing was foisted on the Kenyan people by the NAK mandarins- people forget that both KANU and LDP took the matter to court to STOP the referendum- a matter still pending in the courts.

So you are posing the wrong swali Kamale. It is NOT the NO side which decided the parameters of this referendum- it is the YES side. In the court of public opinion, the NO side have already achieved their main objective- to demonstrate the FACT that the vast majority of Kenyans across the country are OPPOSED to the imposition of an imperial presidency. Even the Yes side, in selling the document are forced to concede to its obvious limitations- kinda like a car salesman trying to sell you a rickety vehicle by convincing you that at least it goes faster than a bicycle.

So what will the NO side do if the Yes side "wins" by rigging the referendum?

Well, the struggle will continue, Kamale, until Kenyans get what they want: a democratic constitution .

Time is on our side. History is our guide.

Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[kamalet]

You see, the problem of screaming rigging is that it will not hold. It is a case of win or lose unfortunately as it stands now!!

I do not have a problem with the No vote winning, and wish them well. However, in the event that they read the mood wrong (and this is very likely Oloo!) and considering the zerosum political game being played out by the No campaigners, should they not have a Plan B?

[Onyango Oloo]

The Plan B is simply this:

A Lutta Continua. The struggle will continue. We know that Kenyans had a draft democratic constitution ready to go on March 15th, 2004. The NAK faction blocked it and mutilated it to the point where today they are trying to force Kenyans to choose between the old undemocratic constitution and their new imperial undemocratic constitution. Kenyans will reject both.

If the YES side prevails in the referendum, believe me no NO supporters will hang themselves in remorse. The YES side like Moi-KANU in 2002 have seriously underestimated the anger and the resentment seething under the surface over this issue.

Kamale:

You and I will still be around on November 23rd, 2005.

Here is what we should do:

If your YES side wins, please come here and start a thread entitled, "What Now, No Side?"

If the NO side wins, I will start a thread entitled" "We Said No to Wako, Time to Say YES to a Democratic Katiba"

Deal?

Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[kamalet]

Oloo,

You have a deal on that!!

But my question still persist...what is the POLITICAL PLAN B for the No campaigners?

...and when we are at it, this new party by Tuju which someone on radio a shortwhile ago described as 'kuchota maji na gunia', could this be annexure "A" in the Yes campaign strategy, i.e. we are winning this and we need something in place to replace Raila's political fiefdom in Luo land?

Any thoughts?

[Onyango Oloo]

First of all, this is NOT the Command Headquarters of the NO Campaign- I believe you can get a better answer by strolling up Upper Hill in Nairobi.

Secondly, even if I was privy to that, you hardly expect me to spill my guts to a known foot soldier of the Yes team, do you now?

Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[job]

Response to .....The Banana Republic is upside down by Adongo; posted by JOB
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is quite an interesting debate and Adongo has chronicled some scenarios which accurately capture the current pre-referendum climate in Kenya. As of now, I concur that the NO vote is winning.

But, November 21/22, 2005 is quite some political century to come. Kamale makes a worthwhile "what if" point, while seeking an answer as to whether the NO team has a plan B.

Most reform minded Kenyans, I believe the majority of wananchi, find fatal flaws in the Wako draft which has been laced with some goodies from the Bomas draft in an attempt to hoodwink people into voting for it.

As Adongo contends, amending it once it becomes our law will be virtually impossible. As the NO team clearly articulates to wananchi, the logical thing to do with this Wako draft is to reject it at the referendum. The NO message is overwhelmingly resonating quite well with Kenyans.

The question is not if the NO team has a plan B, but rather, if the YES team has some secret counter strategies to the apparent NO tsunami. Let's look at what they might or might not do, so as to be ready for any eventualities.

We may want to explore such possibilities, debate and ponder over multiple scenario's in an attempt to unearth cunning or illegal moves aimed at denying us our deserved peoples /pro-Bomas Constitution.

Consider keenly that some unenthusiastic NAK MP's (eg Mutua Katuku, Bonny Khalwale...etc) are frustrated that the "Billions" promised for the campaigns are not trickling down to their hands. Is someone having a second thought or Kiraitu is just waiting for the right moment to pour the money? I think Murungi has sensed defeat and is now considering using the money elsewhere for yet another of his ugly schemes. Two possible scenario's and possible ways to counter them;

SCENARIO (1)

The LDP/KANU referendum case is still in court. I opt not to lay a lot of emphasis on this particular case since LDP/KANU can pull out when they deem politically fit.

Correct me if I'm wrong on this one, I assume there was definitely more than one case filed to block the referendum; cases very independent from the enjoined LDP/KANU suit.

The YES proponents of the Wako draft can easily hijack one of these independent suits and ensure it goes all the way to judgement...and effectively stop the referendum altogether. Without mincing words, we all know the YES team controls the Judiciary so the question of the verdict in the case would be obvious.

This they can achieve easily by influencing the originators of the suit with Kiraitu's "Billions" unless one of these very suits was filed by them (NAK) as a safety valve incase things go tough. Don't be surprised to find out they themselves sponsored one such suit just in case.

If the referendum is stopped to save Kibaki and his cronies from political embarrassment, then Kiraitu's roadmap to a new Constitution by Jamhuri day, 2005 will have been derailed, but they (NAK) will still have two dangerous tools at their disposal.

First and obvious, Parliament. Second, Billions of our hard earned tax shillings. They can still buy MP's as they've always done to play around with ordinary legislation and stupid things similar to Kiraitu's Consensus Act, to craft another jua-kali roadmap while buying time to cool off wananchi's rage.

Remember, Kiraitu once attempted to argue that Ringera's ruling (which emphasized on the sovereignity of Kenyans,..the power of the people.., to bring a new constitution) could be circumvented by realizing it through the peoples representatives in form of another constituent assembly.

They may attempt to by-pass legal & legislative bottlenecks (sadly using MP's yet again) to hurriedly constitute another Bomas-like peoples assembly, this time composed of strong Mt. Kenya presence and well "greased"/bribed outsiders from other regions of Kenya.

The circus may involve bringing forth the contentious issues to the fore, yet again and making some cosmetic changes, then deleting all the unpopular clauses like the christian courts, "fixing" the Provincial Administaration saga, the "abortion" & "gay marriage"issue etc then performing a mock or pretend vote by the delegates to achieve 2/3 majority.

While arguing over this point with concerned Kenyan folk at a watering hole in Washington DC, some people dismissed this as impossible, considering the strong NO momentum gripping Kenya. They said there's no legal basis, as there's no shortcut to a people's referendum.

They way I have witnessed legal interpretation vary depending on which side one is, and knowing very well from the track record of these NAK amateurs, they could very possibly do just that without batting an eyelid.

Murungi himself is on record having said that peoples sovereignty could be exercised through a constituent assembly, while his side-kick Mirugi Kariuki has always advocated for a more "representative" Bomas assembly...meaning, one dominated by GEMA people.

What to do to counter this SCENARIO
-----------------------------------------------
A political solution may help here. We must now not seperate politics from the constitutional debate, just for the good of Kenya. Use fire to stop the fire. Using the referendum campaign platform as a bait against our MP's will be very useful. It must be done now and very fast.

LDP & KANU need not do a joint strategy, however independent but similar tactics to be applied simultaneously in their respective strongholds must apply.

First, the NO team should clearly identify and highlight in BOLD RED markers, names of sell-out MP's who chronically betray the peoples cause by voting with the government on suppressive anti-Bomas motions. Let them be identified and earmarked for removal come 2007. This applies generally to the rest of the nation outside Kibaki's Mt. Kenya backyard.

Let their potential opponents be introduced to the people of Kenya as heir's in waiting come 2007. Let these opponents to the traitor MPs declare on which side they stand then promise and assure Kenyans on their steadfastness with regard to the Bomas draft. It is only then that they can VIGOROUSLY preach about all the FLAWS and POISON in the Wako draft to the constituents. This is in essence the real civic education in layman's terms.

While urging Kenyans to eat as much as given, these heir's should preach against the misuse of tax shillings to support an unpopular constitution. They must host the joint national LDP/KANU NO teams to their respective backyard constituencies in rallies and mobilization of people to vote, both in the referendum and in 2007.

Wayward MP's may be checked this way and those considering eating Murungi's Billions will think twice. Meanwhile Orange rallies must continue in earnest, focusing in rural Kenya, since the urban vote is not a problem as of now.

SCENARIO (2)

Let's not forget that Section (47), of the constitution has not been amended to first define how to introduce a new constitution; and then create the referendum law and rules governing it's conduct. Put differently, the referendum we are heading to may just be unconstitutional as LDP/KANU so argues. Let's be very careful here and observe keenly what the YES team seems to be planning.

Are we being led to a trap to frustrate our emotions and propagate anarchy and chaos so as to give NAK a solid excuse to put off the constitution debate altogether?.

Think about how the NO camp of Kenyans are charged hot, waiting to roast Kibaki /Kiraitu/ Nyachae and their sycophant buddies. Will calling off this referendum be a politically prudent thing to do right now?

Little talk had it that some MP's including the dreaded NARC chief whip Nyaga are talking of convincing Kibaki to recall the house and have the twin issues of section 47 & further consensus negotiations restarted.

Does this sound familiar? Abortive schemes and counter schemes that keep going in circles.
Someone is running scared, having prophesed to "shake every corner of the country", they are the ones being shaken in every corner of Kenya.

They fatally declared, through Awori and Murungi that a loss at the referendum means a vote of no confidence in Kibaki's government by the people of Kenya. Mark my words, this is the same statement that is going to stimulate Kenyans to go and vote against the proposed Constitution, even those who had been long worn out. They've been dared and they've woken up, ...they will respond with a bang!!

Is Kibaki going to simply walk into this quagmire. I seriously think he badly wants to walk cautiously around it as usual. He may not want to face the wrath of angry citizens.

They seem to be toying with the idea of recalling MP's and "influencing" them to play the same merry-go-round games to dizzy up and tire wananchi into a final fatigue.

What to do to counter this SCENARIO
------------------------------------------------
The same tactics for the first scenario. Only this time, the NO campaign must clearly tell all Kenyans, even break it down to the illiterate ones, the role of recalling this MP's and the intention to influence them (by cash of course). Lets pit these MPs against angry wananchi and place lenses over their heads to watch what they'll do now.

We may just tie their hands since right now all eyes are focused on politics again. What a fertile moment for constituents to dictate terms to their MP's.
It's a blessing in disguise. It's payback time coming before 2007. What a sweet moment for poor, oppressed Kenyans whose Exchequer has been Anglo-Fleeced by arrogant power barons now pretending to prescribe a "wonderful" constitution for them. Mr. Insensitive- Murungi flatters Kenyan's whom he thinks are very stupid, by describing the autocratic & oppressive Wako draft, as the best Constitution ever written in Africa.

Let these words get back (in direct quote) to the same pumbavu Kenyan voters. I just learnt Karua refers to some of these voters as hooligans and refugees, while Maina Kiai is complaining others are being referred to as "tunyamu cia ruguru", translated ..animals from the west.


Let's be vigilant..if the referendum doesn't proceed, then the struggle must continue right now and not tomorrow.

Nimesema.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

Welcome to the forum. I enjoyed reading your closely argued and deeply thought contribution. Looking forward to more...

Onyango Oloo
Toronto

[kamalet]

Job,

I do not think you got my point. All you say is in support of the No campaign viewpoint which is alright by me. Your argument is premised on the basis that the No campaign have got it all set, and will win the referendum, and their worries should be the traps that the Yes camp may lay out ahead. So under the circumstances, your scenarios and the counter measures could make sense (not that I agree though!).

My point was that it is very likely that the No campaign MAY have misread the mood of Kenyans and presumed that they have this thing in the bag. Consequently, it is nice and easy to also undertake a political zerosum game - i.e. why not rout out these kikuyus (I could not help notice reference to Mt. Kenya!) from power as part of the bargain!!!

In the event that they are wrong, and Kenyans vote Yes ( and there are valid reasons for them to do so!), have they taken into account the political consequences of their zerosum game?

It is easy for Oloo to say that Plan B is Aluta Continua - but we are talking about wounded egos, and in politics a wounded ego rarely survives.

That is the plan I am seeking!

Finally Job, do try and read the draft before peddling or repeating lies about the proposed constitution. It is certainly NOT true that it will be virtually impossible to change the constitution once passed. My own reading of the proposed constitution, tells me that that what will be virtually impossible to change will be those items in Section 281 (1) which will require a referendum and any other popular request which will require support from a lot of people. The list of items in Section 281 (1) in my opinion do not include a single contentious item. If this is the case, then parliament will be able to amend the constitution to review the items people consider contentious, and this will require the usual two-thirds majority applicable even today. It is therefore a fallacy that we cannot change this thing!!!

Those of us in Kenya are getting increasingly amazed at the number of Kenyans queueing at Chief's offices waiting for the free copies so that they can read it for themselves, and these lies we are being treated to will sure subside eventually.

Ukweli utashinda!!

[roughrider]

What happens after the referendum really depends on the magnitudes of loss or win. And frankly speaking we don’t go to battles thinking that we might lose. We cross that bridge when we come to it… so wrong psychology there Mr. ‘YES’ kamale.
For the second time in as many weeks I am forced to remind you that the referendum is not a matter of life and death. We will still be living our normal lives. See Uhuru Kenyatta, he lost elections and is still here with us.


But since you raise it: In fact the arguments for a ‘plan B’ are false. The ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ verdicts by themselves imply the next steps.

If NO loses, they resign and let YES set the political agenda. Likewise for YES, if they lose, they should let the NO team set the political agenda. That is the way it goes. And of course the politics will continue…. If YES wins the normal elections will be postponed until 2010 because the Kibaki Katiba does not provide for or recognise them… it only says elections after 5 years of coming into office… so Kibaki will continue to misgovern until 2010.

However the little matter of the legality of this process must come up in the event of a YES win. It’s not really about the constitution but the constitutionality of the process. In the event of a NO win then Kibaki should resign.

[kamalet]

roughrider said:

What happens after the referendum really depends on the magnitudes of loss or win. And frankly speaking we don’t go to battles thinking that we might lose. We cross that bridge when we come to it… so wrong psychology there Mr. ‘YES’ kamale.
For the second time in as many weeks I am forced to remind you that the referendum is not a matter of life and death. We will still be living our normal lives. See Uhuru Kenyatta, he lost elections and is still here with us.


But since you raise it: In fact the arguments for a ‘plan B’ are false. The ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ verdicts by themselves imply the next steps.

If NO loses, they resign and let YES set the political agenda. Likewise for YES, if they lose, they should let the NO team set the political agenda. That is the way it goes. And of course the politics will continue…. If YES wins the normal elections will be postponed until 2010 because the Kibaki Katiba does not provide for or recognise them… it only says elections after 5 years of coming into office… so Kibaki will continue to misgovern until 2010.

However the little matter of the legality of this process must come up in the event of a YES win. It’s not really about the constitution but the constitutionality of the process. In the event of a NO win then Kibaki should resign.

RR,

That was the plan B I hoping we could come up with...!!! You see we have unfortunately reduced this thing to a referendum on Kibaki!!

But you still have to go back and read (and re-read) the proposed draft before you make allegations such as that on election!! The elections will still be held in 2007 as the new constitution does not create a new term for parliament - Just read Section 288.

In the event of a Yes win, then Section 290 takes care of the old constitution, and Section 2 (2) kicks in! No questions asked!

[job]

The Banana Republic is Upside Down, by Adongo...........reply by Job
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mr. Kamale,

You purport that the NO campaign might have misread the mood of Kenyans; and even presumed to have bagged the referendum vote.
Note that I cautiously pointed that November is still far, but just depicted the accurate position prevailing currently, "kwa sasa".

My preliminary assessment of the mood of Kenyans in Rift Valley, Nyanza, Ukambani, North Eastern, and great parts of Western, Nairobi and Coast provinces right now, indicates just that. That I am reading the mood correctly, and majority of Kenya is going NO or "Oranges" for now.

That assessment also reflects to me that the greater Mt. Kenya region, and miniscule portions of Nairobi and Coast have a prevailing YES mood. And oops!, there's very little of Kenya left for the YES list to continue.

It further warns me not to correlate the mood of Kenyans directly with that of their legislative representatives, i.e elected MP's. That's a big statement from wananchi that I've learnt to respect the Kenyan populace for.
Infact, the footdragging displayed by pro YES MP's with regard to the YES campaign rallies, has exposed something about our MP's culpability to compromise by the powers to be.

A YES Parliament victory can easily translate into a YES public humiliation; and a NO parliament defeat can easily switch to a NO landslide win.

I've learnt that having the Kibwana's, Ndile's or Wanjala's on my side does not necessarily mean having the Kamba and Luhya vote wrapped up for my taking. Are these guys, Kiraitu & Norman Nyaga, listening to this?

I will be in denial, or just disingenuous to ignore this plain fact. For your claim about some possibility of misreading the mood of Kenyans, ...all I can say is that I don't lean towards fantasies and fictitious imginations, but usually prefer factual truths.

Even Moi and Uhuru were captivated in denial. Denial of their unpopularity until after the December, 2002 election results were announced, when the truth finally hit them with shock. Uhuru seems to have learnt a lot from that. There are ways (I'll not prescribe) to deal with denial though.

But Kamale, lets leave this for November, time will tell.

Amendment of the Constitution.
----------------------------------------

Secondly, you challenged me to read the Proposed Wako Constitution before "spreading lies about virtual impossibility of amending it".

I have not only read this Wako draft, but studied it, and conducted it's thorough comparative analysis against the Bomas draft, the current Constitution, the Ufungamano draft, and the post-consensus Naivasha Accord drafts. For your information, I am not spreading lies about it, I am only stating what I have read from it.

On my part, I opt not to pass judgement on you and your fellow YES proponents of the poisonous Wako draft, but let's get to the point in question.

I REPEAT that it will be a virtual impossibility to amend the Wako draft if it becomes our law. I did not state that it is absolutely impossible to ammend it, take note.

The issue is not about "reading the Wako draft and understanding it",( a now famous coinage of Kibaki and his cronies) but rather, Constitutionally interpreting it, and appreciating it's implications on our lives upon enactment, & for posterity.

Under the Wako draft, Article 281, Amendment of the Constitution, states that ;

Amendment in respect of ;

(a) Supremacy of the Constitution.
(b) Territory of Kenya.
(c) Sovereignty of the people.
(d) Principles and values of the Republic.
(e) Bill of Rights.
(f) Term of office of the President.
(g) Independence of the Judiciary.
(h) Functions of Parliament.
(i) Devolution.

shall be enacted IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE 282 or 283 and approved by a simple majority of the people, in a referendum held for that purpose.

Article 282 lays out the terms of amendment by parliament, which requires a 2/3 majority vote approval of the total membership of Parliament.

Article 283 lays out the terms of amendment by referendum, which requires 1 million signatures of registered voters, and approval by majority of district assemblies of Kenya (we are yet to know the actal number & location of districts to be created or dissolved by Kibaki/Murungi's team).

Just to get 2/3 MP's voting on one side on any CONTENTIOUS issue, as history has shown, will not be feasible, and to get a majority consent within district assemblies which lack Senate protection from executive manipulation, is another herculean task.

By the time 1 milion signatures of Registered voters are collected and authenticated, at least one contest of a signature will arise, creating time delaying legal bottlenecks. This could take years to resolve.
Going by Kenya's adult mortality rates, of close to 10 deaths per 1000 persons, per year, some other thousands of the signatories will be dead within the legal contest period, thus nullifying the exercise altogether.

To amend the so called contentious issues therefore, will be a task virtually impossible.

Poisonous Articles in Wako Draft.
------------------------------------------

Besides the commonly mentioned flaws in the Wako Draft, a good look at Bomas draft will reveal to you just how bad this proposed Wako law is.

1) Executive,

Wako's draft has robbed us our aspiration to have executive powers shared horizontally; through a Parliament-elected, party-sanctioned, Prime Minister heading government.

Elections should not only produce a popular President, but a popular/majority party too, with either complementary or supplementary roles, depending on who the President/PM forms a coalition with.

This is how checks and balances would have been achieved, while enhancing multi-party democracy and promoting parliamentary autonomy.

The day to day accountability to the people by the Prime Minister who would face parliament daily to give a detailed account of government functioning would be key to improving governance in Kenya.

It would help curtail corruption, nepotism and favouritism since by all account, the PM has to face MP's and by extension Kenyans on a daily basis. The President on the other hand, under the current Constitution, can appoint his favoured cronies and dissapear in state House for months without accounting for his actions.

Lumping all executive powers in the hands of the president who is to appoint & fire the Prime Minister under Wako's draft, (without restrictions, and merely by rubber-stamp parliamentary approval), is nothing but under-estimation of the intelligence of Kenyan people.

The President has powers to influence and even force out district governments not loyal to him. He can reject a district budget through his appointee, the chairperson of the National Budget commission. This smacks of dictatorship creeping closer to the people and a deviation from the Bomas draft. This is basically done against the spirit of devolution.

The President can only be impeached by marshalling a mighty 3/4 majority vote of total membership of the house. This is greater than the threshold to amend the Constitution by Parliament. Who is more important here, the individual called His Excellency or the country's parliament?

To elect the President of Kenya, new rules have been created and I dare say, for the sole purpose of confining this office within reach of a single select community from the slopes of Mt. Kenya. This mischievious & cunning rules about garnering 1/2 the total vote and 25% votes in 1/2 of all Kenyan districts, is meant to bar smaller communities from ascending to power.

Knowing well it is virtually impossible to amend the constitution, this is aimed at locking safe this office for some prefered ethnic group, for posterity, period. It will be rejected as it divide's Kenyans on ethnic grounds, i.e those "allowed" to be President and "the rest that are not allowed".

Cabinet.
----------

Bomas suggested the appointment of non-elected professionals as Ministers, to be done by the Prime Minister upon consultation with the President, and approval by Parliament.

MP's lobbied to have this rejected because they still aspire not only to make laws (legislate), but also hope to enter cabinet and head government Ministries, from where they can influence contracts and other money making ventures.

The President lobbied to have the Bomas proposal rejected because he wanted to use the " Cabinet "reward/honour" to enhance loyalty, sycophancy and thereby propagate legislative manipulation.

We need Ministers not protected from prosecution by parliamentary positions. This is the way to achieve credible, competent and corrupt-free efficiency of the Ministries. Wako draft does the exact opposite.

Limitation on the number of Cabinet is well enshrined in the Bomas draft to protect its abuse by the executive as a legislative manipulation tool. Wako's draft does the exact opposite.

Constitutional Commissions.
-----------------------------------
Wako's draft still provides for some commissions with duplicating roles. Are these positions meant to be preserved for rewarding loyal cronies or are we seriously looking at cost-efficient ways to manage our government?

Why have for instance a National Revenue Allocation Commission, a National Budget Commission, and seperate commissions for Tax, while still maintaining Treasury PS, FInance Minister etc etc

Electoral Commission.
---------------------------
The vague/ gray address of the powers of this commission leaves it open for manipulation by the executive to achieve political mileage by incumbents. A provision should be enshrined in the Constitution once and for all, addressing the modality of creation or dissolution of districts and constituencies based on demographic & other sound facts.

Leaving it open as the Wako draft does is quite suspect, considering the grave political and power implications this might have. Bomas had this issue well wrapped up with protection of the current districts from executive manipulation.

Senate/ Legislature
-------------------------

The upper house, Senate as provided in the Bomas draft would have shielded the devolved government units, and minority interest groups, from executive manipulation and consequently marginalization.

This is a house that would have also vetoed certain rogue actions by parliament. It is an important check- balance institution.

The argument about the cost of maintaining the senate does not hold any water since as demonstrated by Kibaki, the current Ministers and their assistants are a whooping 70 something.

Under Bomas this would be restricted to 30-40. The extravagance provided by the current Constitution and Wako's draft can cater for the Senators with little difference in cost. But most important the corruption that would be curtailed by strong accountability checks provided by the Bomas draft would allow the surplus needed to further enact more institutions working for the good of Kenyans.

Devolution.
---------------

It makes little sense for the Kiraitu's and Wako to unilaterally abolish against the wish of majority Kenyans, the regional devolution units of government. The simplistic fear of having members from one ethnic community being marginalized under the various devolved units is self defeating.

These people have always lived in those regions anyway and consider them their homes, so they would wish to have more resources trickling down to the very areas to benefit them alongside other residents.

A Kikuyu living in Nakuru would still wish to have more resources allocated for the Rift region and Nakuru in particular to help improve the local economy to which he/she participates and is dependent upon.

By the way, it may even be cheaper to have several regional units working as the centers of devolution than the now espoused district units, considering the economic capacities of the various regions vis-a-vis districts.

Devolution coming in such half hearted fashion is nothing but hoodwinking of citizens and a misuse of the term devolution, for political expediency.

As for the Ufungamano draft, this was just another clone of Wako's draft. In fact this is Kiraitu & Muite's own version of the draft, fronted by Rev. Musyimi. It deviates slightly with a more radical provision in the executive to abolish the PM's position, Kiraitu's #1 wish, because he currently thinks he is unofficially a PM. It also excludes the Kadhi courts. The only good thing about it is the limitation of Constitutional Commissions and the Cabinet.

Naivasha accord is the result of a discussion where the constitution debate was used as a horse trading platform to achieve political guarantees/ MOU. The Article to protect the firing of VP by President was traded and finally entrenched/sealed during these talks.

This was lobbied for by Wetangula & Kombo who were still assuming that Kombo would be the automatic choice for running mate for Kibaki in 2007. They also lobbied to have the PM powers trimmed,..why? Simply what the late Kijana Wamalwa called "Railaphobia".

Ford-K assumed Raila was going to automatically be PM under the same NARC ticket and were afraid he would be too powerful thus over shadowing the VP. This was all sheer nonsense in the name of Constitution making, no wonder it could not pass the test of time.

Wetangula was simply trying to guarantee Kombo an entire uninterrupted term of Vice Presidency after 2007 under Kibaki. How naive to be so sure on deals with Kibaki, he could nominate Mukisa Kituyi as his running mate or worse if he sees no likelihood of a united luhya vote he might jump ship for another tribe.

This Wako draft is so tribally skewed, I can't filter all the poison in one sitting but I'll continue the debate later.

We have been pushed to a situation where we have no option but reject the Wako draft then continue the fight to have wananchi's Constitution i.e Bomas enacted. We are indefatigable since this Bomas draft will come, with or without Kibaki, it's just a matter of time. Even Moi came and went, but our aspirations keep burning.

unedited please.

Nimesema.

Job.

[kamalet]

Job,

You see the contentious issues relate to only the issue of the prime minister having executive powers or not, and having one level of devolution or not!!

But if you closely look at some of the issues you whine about, they have simply been cut and pasted from the Bomas draft to the Wako draft without any change!! Chapter 19, Sections 281 to 283 of the Wako Draft relating to the changes to the constitution are exactly the same as Chapter 19 Sections 302 to 304, only exception being the removal of reference to the upper House. In actual fact the Bomas draft made it even difficult because both houses were required to pass the bill prior to presidential assent!


What about election of the president? You have alleged a hineous Kikuyu plot to confine the presidency in Mt. Kenya!! So what did Bomas say? Section 158 of the Bomas draft is a carbon copy of Section 149 of the Wako draft with the exception of references to districs in the latter and regions in the former!! If anything, this even makes it difficult for the kikuyus to rule again since most of the 32 extra districts created by Moi were not in kikuyuland, and a president must get 25% of the votes in 37 districts!

You have issues with a number of things:

Executive:

The problem we have with the Bomas draft is that this position was being created with a person in mind including the powers that were being given the post. I believe it is wrong to have 2 centres of power in a young democracy such as ours, and the world is littered with such examples. But Kenya coming out of a dictatorship it was understandable that people felt the need for trimming of presidential powers. I do not agree that the creation of an executive PM was the solution.

What people forget is that politics is all about power, and no one will want to go through the rigours of an expensive and difficult campaign to become president whilst all one needs is to get party leadership and become a powerful PM. This is a recipe for watering down the presidency as only the second best in the party will be forwarded for the presidency!! But we could argue for days on end.....

Cabinet

Not sure about your gripe about non-elected ministers, though my stated opinion is that ministers are as much politicians as any other, and they need to continue beiong elected officials, hence accountable to the electorate and not just the appointing authority. Bomas and Wako provide for such creatures and I differ.

Bomas 'decreed' the maximum number of ministers in a cabine whilst the Wako says that parliament may legislate the maximum number. Supposing there was a need to have an extra ministry necessitating the amendment of the constitution to increase the number? Are you not contradicting yourself when you say the constitution is difficult to change ( I have already shown the similarity between Bomas and Wako on this), as this would hold the government at ransom? Parliament being able to legislate on the maximum number meets the requirement of checking the president from flooding the house with the government!

Constitutional commissions

I do not see the duplication as well as how these will be used as rewards to cronies. Parliament will vet and approve the appointments to these commissions.

Devolution

One of the biggest problems in my view about the regional structure was the back door introduction of Majimbo by the Bomas draft as well as balkanising Kenyans in tribal groupings. The other problem was the cost of maintaining these new organs that arose from the Bomas draft. From a tax payers point of view, even the business community was in agreement that a single level was better than the 5 levels proposed by Bomas.

I think this obsession with a prime minister's post is what is going to kill a potentially good document. We shall unfortunately be stuck with the old consitution for a long while, and there are severe and inherent dangers of retaining it. All we need to do is look at what Mugabe has been turned - a dictator and the constitution allows him to! Zimbabweans rejected a very good document simply because Mugabe was for it, and in the referendum voted no to Mugabe. Riding on that wave the opposition thought they could rout Mugabe from office, and they have instead made him a dictator who has bought parliament which has given him the powers he now has. Hopefully Kibaki will not do the same, but there is no reason why he could not be pushed to become one, as the present document does give him wide and wild powers to entrench himself, and as you have seen, emasculate parliament!!

Be careful what you wish for!

[job]

kamalet said:

Job,

You see the contentious issues relate to only the issue of the prime minister having executive powers or not, and having one level of devolution or not!!

But if you closely look at some of the issues you whine about, they have simply been cut and pasted from the Bomas draft to the Wako draft without any change!! Chapter 19, Sections 281 to 283 of the Wako Draft relating to the changes to the constitution are exactly the same as Chapter 19 Sections 302 to 304, only exception being the removal of reference to the upper House. In actual fact the Bomas draft made it even difficult because both houses were required to pass the bill prior to presidential assent!


What about election of the president? You have alleged a hineous Kikuyu plot to confine the presidency in Mt. Kenya!! So what did Bomas say? Section 158 of the Bomas draft is a carbon copy of Section 149 of the Wako draft with the exception of references to districs in the latter and regions in the former!! If anything, this even makes it difficult for the kikuyus to rule again since most of the 32 extra districts created by Moi were not in kikuyuland, and a president must get 25% of the votes in 37 districts!

You have issues with a number of things:

Executive:

The problem we have with the Bomas draft is that this position was being created with a person in mind including the powers that were being given the post. I believe it is wrong to have 2 centres of power in a young democracy such as ours, and the world is littered with such examples. But Kenya coming out of a dictatorship it was understandable that people felt the need for trimming of presidential powers. I do not agree that the creation of an executive PM was the solution.

What people forget is that politics is all about power, and no one will want to go through the rigours of an expensive and difficult campaign to become president whilst all one needs is to get party leadership and become a powerful PM. This is a recipe for watering down the presidency as only the second best in the party will be forwarded for the presidency!! But we could argue for days on end.....

Cabinet

Not sure about your gripe about non-elected ministers, though my stated opinion is that ministers are as much politicians as any other, and they need to continue beiong elected officials, hence accountable to the electorate and not just the appointing authority. Bomas and Wako provide for such creatures and I differ.

Bomas 'decreed' the maximum number of ministers in a cabine whilst the Wako says that parliament may legislate the maximum number. Supposing there was a need to have an extra ministry necessitating the amendment of the constitution to increase the number? Are you not contradicting yourself when you say the constitution is difficult to change ( I have already shown the similarity between Bomas and Wako on this), as this would hold the government at ransom? Parliament being able to legislate on the maximum number meets the requirement of checking the president from flooding the house with the government!

Constitutional commissions

I do not see the duplication as well as how these will be used as rewards to cronies. Parliament will vet and approve the appointments to these commissions.

Devolution

One of the biggest problems in my view about the regional structure was the back door introduction of Majimbo by the Bomas draft as well as balkanising Kenyans in tribal groupings. The other problem was the cost of maintaining these new organs that arose from the Bomas draft. From a tax payers point of view, even the business community was in agreement that a single level was better than the 5 levels proposed by Bomas.

I think this obsession with a prime minister's post is what is going to kill a potentially good document. We shall unfortunately be stuck with the old consitution for a long while, and there are severe and inherent dangers of retaining it. All we need to do is look at what Mugabe has been turned - a dictator and the constitution allows him to! Zimbabweans rejected a very good document simply because Mugabe was for it, and in the referendum voted no to Mugabe. Riding on that wave the opposition thought they could rout Mugabe from office, and they have instead made him a dictator who has bought parliament which has given him the powers he now has. Hopefully Kibaki will not do the same, but there is no reason why he could not be pushed to become one, as the present document does give him wide and wild powers to entrench himself, and as you have seen, emasculate parliament!!

Be careful what you wish for!

[job]

Kamalet,

I'll quote you;

"you see, contentious issues relate to only the issue of the Prime Minister having executive powers or not, and having one level of devolution or not"

Well, that's not how I see it, but just how YOU see it. To me, there was first no contention, but later, at least five contentious issues were "crafted".

Initially, there was no contentious issue AT ALL. All chapters in the Bomas Draft were passed by more than the required 2/3 majority vote by delegates who included, MP's, many Councillors, the Civil Society, religious reps, private sector reps, women reps, youth reps, disabled reps, ...and many more from Kenya's diverse people.

A disgruntled Murungi, and his fellows, had a bone to pick with at least five Chapters in the Bomas Draft,..specifically those working against their power consolidation schemes. As the it goes, (I believe you're aware) they baptised them, "contentious issues". Meaning, contested by them, but agreed by most delegates.

Remember their infamous walkout from Bomas. They had failed to compromise the delegates, the way they now manipulate our legislators (with ease).

They then began selling these 'contentious issues" in a political sensitization campaign, aimed at enlisting as many adherents to join them in opposing the Bomas draft. This is when they introduced tribal propagandist statements like, "trying to get to power through the back door", "we must protect our own" "Moi is now gone, let's forget this Constitution thing", "andu aitu ", "juggling the liver", "Sharia law is coming to kenya" ...etc etc.

NAK is now trying to manipulate wananchi with Kiratu's (read taxpayer's) "billions of shillings". They will soon find out that, like Bomas delegates, we will indeed eat the "billions". Then what? Then we'll "shake them in every corner of Kenya" and vote out the Wako draft.

Kamalet, as for amendment of the constitution, I'll address it one final time, by reiterating that, Article 281 addresses amendment in respect of nine major Chapter issues, which cover Kiraitu's so called contentious issues.

That is,

1) The Executive (addressing all terms related to the office of the President, including functions relating to the Vice President, Prime Minister, Cabinet..their appointment etc,.. et al.)

2) Legislature ( addressing functions of Parliament, and enshrining it as the only legislative body without an upper Senate)

3) Devolution. ( all matters relating to devolution)

4) Judiciary ( including the Kadhi courts, & the uncalled for "Christian", "Hindu" "Traditional" courts)
5) Supremacy of the Constitution.

6) Sovereignty of the people.

.....and others, some less contended by them.

To amend any of these issues as per Wako's draft, will be a virtual impossibility as required by Articles 282 and 283. With all due respect, that's my final word on this since I'll not wait for a NAK (read Kiraitu) appointed Judge for a Constitutional interpretation. I just intend to vote out this Wako thing, hopefully alongside majority Kenyans.

Presidential Elections.
---------------------------
The 25% vote requirement in 1/2 of Kenya's districts is an intriguingly cunning requirement. I'm deliberately not emphasizing the figure 37 for the districts required, since that is just the figure (1/2) based on the current total 74 districts at the moment.

Here lies the problem. The same Wako draft leaves room for executive manipulation through Parliament, of the existence of the same districts; hence room for creating more districts in politically favourable areas, and dissolving others in politically unfriendly areas.

There is by extension, a calculated but veiled plan to dissolve districts created by former president, Moi, and during the exercise, implement the plan of restructuring Kenya's districts, the same CORE UNITS OF DEVOLUTION, for political expediency. Two wrongs don't make a right, Kenyans have to be very sober here.

This is exactly where the playing field is trying to be skewed in favour of the incumbents. I hate tribal talk but let's get real and confront this tribally divisive plan by these guys before it's late.

I will call a spade a spade. THIS IS SOMETHING ARAP MOI IS WARNING KENYANS TO BE WARY ABOUT. The now common Parliamentary factional wars are soon going to transcend to the wananchi at the grassroots if the Wako draft is implemented the way it currently exists.

Dissolution of certain districts and creation of new ones, purely for political expediency is recipe for chaos, tribal divisions and strife. This is a real poison in the Wako draft.

As for the requirement of garnering 1/2 the total vote, this is capitalization of the former President's election Mathematics. With Kenya's ethnic based elections, and our 42 tribes, an incumbent President only needs to "sponsor" some diversionary candidates to spread votes and make this requirement unachievable, so as to take advantage of incumbency.

Moi never garnered 1/2 the total votes in all of Kenya's Multi-Party elections, but facilitated the entrance of diversionary candidates to his undue advantage.

Prime Minister / 2 centers of power
--------------------------------------------

I don't think many Kenyan's against the Wako draft oppose it due to some obssession with the PM position as you argue. However, I fault your words about "two centers of power being bad for our young democracy"

These are propagandist words I expect from the Karume's, Michuki's and like minded rich septuagenarians, reaping from a consolidated, "one center' power system; people who need all power in the hands of one man, preferably close to them, so they can get government contracts and oil their businesses. They have never championed for accountability nor democratic ideals.

Kenya's democracy is older than most recently established ones like Afghanistan, Slovenia, Ukraine, Russia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Iraq, Georgia, ....etc. Have you noticed they all have a President and a Prime Minister? Have you noticed most have coalition governments?

Their citizens like Kenyan's demand accountability and prefer sharing of not only power, but also national resources, equitably. The vogue now is about distribution of power and distribution of resources to uphold accountability.

What is wrong anyway with a Prime Minister answering questions about governance and accountability on a daily basis. If he is corrupt or perpetuates nepotism, he'll be summoned by Legislators & the President and kicked out of office. But his presence and answerability to the house will help limit Exchequer-Sleazing cartels, .....the greatest fear of many pro YES mandarins involved in the same.

Besides, Kenyans are tired of corrupt, lethargic and nepotic leadership, where Presidents can just "hide" in state House and fail to explain corruption, tribal appointments, cronysm, and gross incompetence.

Cabinet.
-----------

I don't know where you got this notion that Kenyan's prefer MP's to be their Ministers. You can almost palpate the resentment against our money-hungry MP's by wananchi.

Kenyan's were smart enough at Bomas to suggest that "we are not putting foxes incharge of our hen house!!" Majority suggested that non-elected Professionals be appointed our Ministers, and let MP's concentrate in legislation, to COMPLETELY seperate the LEGISLATURE from the EXECUTIVE.

Some of our Ministers; don't act professionally, are not qualified, ignore court orders, and don't fear "Anglo- fleecing" anything in sight under their docket. Why? They feel protected by being MP's and above all, they are politicians.

A politician/MP cum Cabinet Minister will prefer to address Ministry matters through the press via political statements. A non-elected Minister will probably act more profesionally, and will never ignore a court order lest he/she is cited for contempt, knowing well they don't have parliamentary protection. Let Kenyan's be the the judge here.

On limitation on the number of Ministers, as provided by Bomas draft, this was in consideration of the sensitivity of Kenyans resenting against rewardism, cronyism and flagrant misuse of state resources. Also in doing away with the past habit of filling parliament with government, a lean competent non-elected Cabinet was envisioned.

Bomas sets the range of cabinet at between 15 and 20. Not all 20 maximum slots need to be filled immediately, it would be prudent to just start with say 15, the minimum number allowed by the Bomas draft. Do you know there are only 15 Cabinet Positions in the US, one just created recently?.

Let's shed off this mis-governance notions inculcated into our heads by the previous regimes. Those were abnormal governance styles and not vice versa.

If an emergency necessitates creation of another Ministry, the first option would be to create one from the unoccupied slots. If they're all eventually filled, there would still be many options; create a government agency or create an independent department affiliated to another Ministry, or Lump two Ministries together. Doesn't look all that difficult.

Constitutional Commissions.
-----------------------------------

I thought hypothetically that, to allocate Revenue you need to come up with a budget. So I assumed there was duplicity in roles between Wako's proposed National Budget Commission and National Revenue Allocation Commission, especially when there's still a Finance Secretary, PS Ministry of Finance, Minister for Finance, and a Parliamentary National budget commitee (this I agree is essential).

I suggest we leave this topic too, for the wananchi to judge, I'll not revisit the issue.

Devolution.
--------------

This is a very important matter that Kenyans have wished implemented for a long time. An important reason for this aspiration was the fact that despite Kenyans paying taxes, government expenditure was not reaching the various regions to the grassroots level.

The Central government in Nairobi kept all the resources which were being looted through organized cartels coming under various name's, suppliers, procurement companies, contractors, consultants, private developers etc etc.

The government and its parastals including government owned banks were being milked in the Billions by a few in power yet basic services were deteriorating to pathetic levels.

Treasury was minting few Billionaires in or connected to government while millions were falling below the poverty level. Goldenberg, Corner House, Lillian Towers, Anglo Leasing, Sololo, Grand Regency, Yaya Towers, Trade bank, NSSF are names that ignite ugly memories to wananchi.

So what did wananchi suggest when given a chance to effect change through CKRC Constituency & hall hearings. DEVOLUTION. Devolution in such a manner they prescribed. A majority (Check the CKRC website) who discussed devolution suggested that Regional, and lower governments be created through which the central government would allocate funds EQUITABLY.

Such governments would have powers to manage the resources under their respective jurisdictions thus also creating empolyment to locals, and articulating their needs more accurately. The central government was to retain enough powers and considerable resources to oversee the governance of such areas.

I'd rather any day, that out of Kenya's annual revenue of about 600 billion, some is allocated to the different regions, than have all of it in the hands of a few friends to "Anglo-fleece" it.

Devolution logistics in the Kenyan context, was well researched and presented, by economists and academics like the late Dr. Chrispin Mbai, and this did not go down well with the current power barons. They saw this as a challenge to the same resources they wanted to "Anglo-Fleece"

To drum up anti-devolution support, they stirred up tribal emotions, scaring their tribesmates living in various regions (esp. Rift Valley & Coast) to be wary of schemes to "finish" them. The rest is history.

Now the same cunning power barons are pretending to have reached a compromising middle ground, prescribing through the wako draft, a diluted, unstable system that adds no value to the lives of Kenyans. Kenyans have unveiled their trickery, and are now loudly rejecting it.

Lastly
-------

You rightly imply that Kenyans are about to reject what you unfortunately call a "good" document, because of the PM position. Don't contradict yourself since we have been debating many other important issues besides just that one issue.

Kenyans are smart and will not reject a good document. They will reject a bad one for sure.

Please do not assume that by rejecting the Wako draft, the quest for the implementation of wananchi's recorded wishes, espoused in the Bomas draft constitution will be buried.
That is a battle Kenyans will not rest until fulfilled.

My parting words, as the late Vice President, Kijana Wamalwa said, while noting that power was increasingly getting into the heads of some in government;

" Let's not be cleaver with each other!", "Don't play good cards above the table and dangerous cards below the table"

Nimesema.

unedited
Job.