Stop Whining About Narc Kenya.

[adongo12345]

By Adongo Ogony

Yes, Narc Kenya rigged themselves into “victories” in three of the five by-elections. Everybody knows that already. I mean President Kibaki himself couldn’t just go to campaign for their candidate in Nakuru he had to drag the whole state machinery with him and pretend he was attending some event at Afraha stadium.



Yes, they used government helicopters, cars, dished out brand new divisions and locations and not even famine relief food was spared. Money was flowing left right and centre. Where do you guys think all that loot from Anglo fleecing, Nakumatt nakadhalika was going to go? John Githongo himself told us these folks are robbing the nation not just for their own personal wealth but to buy votes. Why should anybody be surprised that the Kibaki regime has no shame in squandering public resources openly to buy seats in what is practically useless by-elections.



These same people tried the same technique to buy the referendum. Kibaki dished out 47 brand new districts to sycophants who promised him non-existent votes. How come we beat them then and not now? That is the question LDP and Kanu types should be asking instead of whining to no end about the crooks running the affairs of our country today? We have resigned to the fact that we have right now a government of crooks by crooks and our only task is to figure out how to tame them instead of appealing to their conscience, something they have never claimed to have.

"I will speak the truth, I don’t fear to be sacked. If they (Government) sack me, I will go home to eat my cassava," Mukele said

We must say Kudos to the ECK this time around at least for speaking the truth and we know most of them actually nine in total are due to be replaced. We have to fight to ensure Kibaki does not load the ECK with fellow crooks. Of course we need reforms in ECK mandate but remember Narc Kenya political thugs actually want ECK defanged even more, brought under the control of government and even the relatively tame Kivuitu replaced. So there you go. Another battlefield.



To me the Narc Kenya “victory” at the by-elections could not have happened at a better time. I have said before that the by-elections will have absolutely no significance and zero impact on the tsunami that is coming in 2007. Comparing this with the “Little General Elections” of 1966 is a bit of a stretch. I do not say that because I want to belittle the significance of the four constituencies in the NE province, including North Horr, which is the largest in the country and where there were the most brazen acts of state corruption to buy an election. My point has been that Narc already had the Nakuru Town seat and chances were they will win it again unless the stakes were completely different which they are not. I thought Kanu would win the four in NE province and to be fair to Uhuru and his team they were robbed at least in three of the four.




At any rate the celebrations about the Narc Kenya "victories" reminds me of the endless celebrations Kibaki and Kina Kiraitu had on the Katiba battles every time they "won" small battles. Remember the big celebrations after the wretched parliament passed the Wako Mongrel, the big dance after the courts said everything was fine. Guess what when the shit hit the roof Kibaki went into hiding at State House and needed Moi to wake him up from his political coma. Mambo bado jameni.

The biggest loser in the whole saga is of course Uhuru Kenyatta and his Kanu wing with its arrogant attitude of trashing the ODM and dragging Moi back to politics to piss on the ODM and carry Kanu/Uhuru on his back trying to turn back the clock. Moi to me is working on a double agenda whose primary purpose is to help destroy the magic of ODM, prop up Kanu/Uhuru and if that gives Kibaki another lease of life, so much the better. He succeeded this time around, thanks to ineptitude of Uhuru and the people around him. Now lets look at the big picture.

First of all by-elections have no significance for opposition voters because they know the result will change nothing. In a General Election the opposition is gunning to form the next government and voters are highly motivated because the result may mean they actually are the new government. That is why for example in 2002 when the Moi/Uhuru team did exactly what Kibaki and crew are doing Kenyans ate the money and still threw them out. They did the same at the referendum, they took all the goodies from Kibaki and threw out his constitution simply because they knew the result was something very important to their lives.

In a by election it is just one more opposition MP and if the government is going to offer you goodies, dig boreholes, bring transformers for electricity and pour money in your area for the next little while just to have some bragging rights for winning a seat what the heck? Get the loot and swim in the goodies and when the time comes when your vote will really count then make the call. Kenyan voters are really smart, but of course it is much more complex than that.

The bigger issue is the death of the ODM dream thanks to Uhuru’s unrealistic ambitions (now dead in the water) and just the sheer greed of Kenyan politicians who after seeing the victory of ODM at the referendum concluded all they had to do was to be an ODM leader and bingo they are in State House. I know it is the right of Kenyans to contest seats and actually it is healthy that LDP and Kanu leaders Najib Balala, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, William Ruto, Mudavadi and others declared their interest to contest for the ODM leadership.



The problem was that the declarations coming right after the referendum even before the ODM formulated its vision and engaged Kenyans in charting the way forward made Kenyans a little bit skeptical and cynical about the prospects of ODM as a grassroots movement. These guys did not just declare their interests in the leadership, they started sniping at each other and dragging tribal math into the equation where everybody claimed their people (tribe) deserved to be at State House.

There is a very interesting phenomenon, which we should pay attention to from the stream of opinion polls coming one from the Republican Group and the other from the Steadman Group. We all know how dubious these polls are in terms of scientific soundness (which is terribly lacking) and the obvious manipulations in terms of timing and some of the ridiculous questions they ask that just can’t add up but that is the subject of another story.

In the Republican poll, majority of Kenyans indicated they would prefer coalitions to run the government and our politicians were all over the media lauding that reality in Kenyan politics. In the Steadman poll that came a few weeks later the LDP emerged as the party with the largest following with 35% support nationally and also leading in five of the eight provinces. Very impressive, isn’t it? In the same poll only 2% indicated they would support the ODM, the only coalition in existence today.

In literal terms combining the two polls we would say Kenyans want a coalition government but they do not think the ODM is a viable coalition. The trouble with that conclusion is that in the same survey by Steadman when they asked how many people supported the ODM, they also asked how many supported the LDP and Kanu and each respondent could only make one choice. Now we all know ODM is LDP and Kanu (at least part of it). So a respondent who supported say the LDP could not at the same time support the ODM without throwing the whole balance to the wind. Now you see why I say the scientific soundness of these polls are very dicey.

My own conclusion is that at the beginning the ODM provided a real alternative to Kenyans against the Kibaki treachery just like Narc did in 2002 against the Moi Kanu hegemony, but just like Narc as soon as they had a little success they forgot the source of their power and then we had jealous characters like Moi with ancient axes to grind and all of a sudden ODM started to look very much like Narc something that really frightens Kenyans. So we still want a coalition to liberate the nation the tribalists in power today but we are not so sure anymore that the ODM is that coalition. That is the challenge Raila and his team in the ODM has to deal with.

Kenyans need a team of truly genuine patriots ready to work together to help the nation get rid of Kibaki and help put brakes on galloping tribalism and nepotism as well as corruption that is ruining our country as we speak. The only way we get this done is if we can get leaders who can prove to us they are ready to work with the ODM and bring change in the country even if they are not their presidential candidate. I know the ODM leaders mouth that slogan but we know they don’t mean it. From the posturing and everything we see around it is like Kalonzo has plan A and Plan B and so do the others may be with a few exceptions.

Plan A is the leaders demand to be the presidential candidate for some because they have been told they are the most popular for others because they have a huge tribal voting base. If Plan A doesn’t work the same leaders are ready to look for alternatives. It is as if the only way one can serve Kenya as a national leader is by being at State House. This is what pisses off many Kenyans and breeds a lot of cynicism about our political leadership.

Kenyans are dying to see a political outfit like the original Narc when leaders put down their egos, rolled their sleeves and went to work not for each individual leader to ascend to power but simply to get rid of Kanu and Moi. Of course we know some leaders put in more work than others, but that is water under the bridge. Since the referendum the only time we have heard about the ODM is when individual leaders go about campaigning for the presidency.

The Narc Summit of 2002 captured the imagination of Kenyans and offered the hope that for the first time in independent Kenya and after awful tribal regimes by Jomo Kenyatta and later by Moi the nation was ready for a collective national political outfit. Kibaki came in and killed all that and when the ODM emerged to confront the trecherous Kibaki Katiba, Kenyans had a similar sense of destiny. There are two problems though and the first (impatient and greedy leadership) I have already explained. Let me tackle the next problem.

Narc 2002 was a creation of the people of Kenya. Wananchi provided the glue that held Narc together. Anybody who walked out of Narc then like Mudavadi lost even in their own villages. That is how much the people had embraced Narc. The ODM too was a creation of the Kenyan people to defeat the hegemonic agenda of Kibaki on a new constitution. Those who walked away from ODM lost in their own villages as well. Even the Biwotts and Moi himself who couldn’t stand people like Raila and Kalonzo to some extent had no choice but to embrace the ODM or become politically irrelevant.

There is one difference though between the Narc 2002 and ODM despite both being creations of the Kenyan masses. Narc had no time to destroy itself because elections were right at hand and anybody who got into Narc even crazy political manambas were assured of a seat in parliament and that is how we ended with some truly nasty characters in parliament.

The ODM on the other hand despite the love they had from the masses has had plenty of time to destroy itself and they are pretty busy working on that platform. Their only luck is that their political opponents are real political wackos, totally arrogant, inept and very ruthless with mali ya wananchi. But the lesson for the ODM is that as much as wananchi may still think they will provide an alternative to the mad party less regime in power there is a limit to what the people can do to keep them together.

So what can the ODM and other opposition groups do as we approach the big bang in 2007.

Learn from what we saw in the by-elections. Kibaki and his henchmen are going to throw everything they got including the proverbial kitchen sink to win the elections. Their theory is that history is written by the victors and once they win even by stealing and vandalizing public property nobody will touch them and they will have five more years to recuperate and refill their pockets.

Secondly, at the General Elections the odds are in favour of the opposition only if they have such an overwhelming force and presence that rigging can’t work the way we had in 2002 General Elections and at the referendum. Remember the words of one Joseph Kamotho to Moi– even rigging has limits -when he refused to support the Uhuru project and joined the Rainbow team. The opposition has to create an environment where even rigging can’t work, which is not to say we are going to condone rigging. In fact I think we should take Kibaki to task over the rigging during the by-elections and bring the evidence to the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) and the courts to expose their scam.

Third the ODM should halt the presidential campaigns get together and let those not interested in the ODM project go on their own. Stop begging people to join the ODM. You already have the most popular party in the land called LDP working with elements from Kanu and other groupings. Consolidate what you have, start engaging the Kenyan public on charting a new path for the nation, choose your presidential torch bearer, evolve a working National Leadership Team (New Summit), start dialogue with other progressive forces and individuals outside the group and lets get to work and stop merely complaining about Narc Kenya and Kibaki. We know how messed up those folks are already.

Fourth, focus on useful practical things. Look at the way Narc Kenya with the help of the government robbed the elections in Nakuru for example by issuing ID cards and Voting Cards to non Nakuru Town voters on the last few days before the election. How many people do you think are in Nakuru Town and do not have ID cards and Voting cards? May be in tens of thousands.

Kibaki made a very important announcement sometimes in March this year when he ordered his office to give ID cards to the youth for free. How many politicians in the LDP or the ODM have gone to their constituencies to mobilize youth with no cards to go and obtain ID cards? Forget press statements or talking at rallies telling people to register. I am talking about organized and systematic program to get every Kenyan in your constituency whether they support you or not to get ID cards and Voting cards and when the government brings problems fighting to ensure that everybody eligible for the card gets it and not just those in the areas politically important to the powers that be.

The LDP with its branches everywhere in the country is in a perfect position to launch a national campaign to ensure young people get ID cards and not just for voting they need it. I don’t think there is any political party which does not want people to get IDs. But of course the government is going to create bottlenecks like claiming they have run out of cards while at same time they are issuing cards to people in politically correct areas. Opposition has to fight and expose such biases so as to help create a level and fair playground. We need such practical things done pronto and then let’s get set for the big dance and see how much money they are going to need to buy the nation. They may have to sell the whole country and I don’t think even the Artur brothers have enough cash to buy the heart and soul of all our people.

Lets get ready for the real battle folks and stop playing around with these wakoras; they are pretty nasty and dangerous.





By the way does anybody know what happened to Ford Kenya and Ford People? Yap it is time for a new chapter in Kenyan politics. ama?

Safina Party chairman, Paul Muite, rides on a bicycle taxi along Nakuru town streets when he joined his party’s candidate, Agnes Wanjiku Muriuki, in her campaigns ahead of Monday’s by-elections. Pic by Lucas Thuo


The writer is a human rights activist.

[adongo12345]

This is close to what I was talking about. Let's get busy.

www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143955991

Gado can be brilliant sometimes

[politicalmaniac]

A.O,
Alow me make a point or two
1) The big winner in the recent by-elections is Moi followed by NARCK. LDP neither gained nor lost. KANU as a party LOST BIG TIME, and now Uhuru is in a real quandry.

Moi's aim is to PREVENT ODM/LDP from gaining electoral success in any way, shape or form. His aim is not to expressly put KANU back in power by chucking out kickback1. No! That a secondary aim. His primary aim is to block the acendending to throne, of the "man from the lake".

Now did he succeed in his endevours in these by elections? YES! Infact the LDP image has been dented Kidogo and needs some panel beating back into shape again.

2)
Just how is ODM going to participate as an entity in the '07 elections?
These verbal bombs being thrown at ODM, ati it is an amorphous entity are quite true. How will KANU and LDP forge this alliance? Will it be such that in LDP strongholds, KANU "absconds" from participating, with LDP reciprocating in KANU strongholds? What about in those areas where neither party is dominant? who will determine which party presents a candidate, how will this be resolved? Will it be amicable?

Another thing, when it come to the Presidential candidate, how will this one be sorted out? Ruto has said he will gun to be the KANU candidate. Supposing he is rigged out? then what? Will he still run to be ODM candidate? And what about the Biwott KANU faction?.

My prediction is that all being the same, there will be no ODM candidates at the parliamentary level. The parties will duke it out individually hoping to forge a post election ruling majority.
At the presidential level, Ruto may back R or KM , or any two may back one of the triumvirate.

The picture now is very hazy and dicey. I dont want to state that I am confused, but is there a better term to capture this uncertain terrain?

The only obvious fact is that the anti NARCK forces need to regroup, and decide their fate. Are they going to replicate the Referndum playbook OR are they going to be scattered like Moi did to the opposition many a time, and kickback1 while busy snoozing, is reading from the Moi script of divide, rig and rule?

[job]

Democracy is under seige
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


By Ababu Namwamba

This is unprecedented. I mean, defecting presidents. Ruling parties dying midstream and Governments running nude. Electoral Commission besieged by power gluttons. Electoral regulations trampled with sickening impunity.

Human rights commission clouded by emasculation. Media threatened by suffocation. Yeah, in this little corner of the world christened Kenya, democracy sure is on the cross, betrayed by her very own offspring who ate from her palm only yesterday.

After the so-called mini-general election, I hear Kenyans sighing in frustration.

Across the length and breadth of our land, from the shores of the mighty Sango to the beaches of the great sea, from the singed sand dunes of the northern frontiers to the savannah grasslands in the south, I hear whispers of indignation. Wananchi are unhappy. Displeased at that fraud masquerading as a government. Dismayed by the jungle reign passing for the rule of law. Disgusted by the raw arrogance in the corridors of power.

But why am I neither surprised nor revolted? Because what many Kenyans are seeing as a new phenomenon is in fact nothing new at all. The insanity witnessed in the build-up to last Monday’s by-elections was only the latest act in the theatre of the absurd that is the reign of Emilio Mwai Kibaki. Indeed as my American buddies would put it, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

If you are a keen observer of the Kibaki regime, you will agree with me that if there is one thing this regime can be credited with, it is consistence. There has been a clear trend since Kibaki was sworn into office. A trend of deceit, a trend of treachery; a trend of arrogance and a trend of impunity. There is also a trend of unbridled nepotism and tribal hegemony, a trend of fatal attraction to raw power. In maintaining fidelity to this trend, the Kibaki regime has been superbly consistent.

Coalition partners have been cheated out of power, without as much as a morsel of remorse. The rule of law has been defiled with nauseating impunity, as court orders have been ignored with aplomb and spouses shielded from the course of justice with ballerina ease.

National resources, including State offices, have been reduced to fetishes offered at the altar of tribal hegemony. Bastions of democracy like free media and distinct political parties have been raped with serpentine venom. The country narrowly escaped the fatal calamity of a mongrel constitution that would have institutionalised this lunacy.

Now they are shifting their bloody guns in the direction of the only vestige of our democracy that has, to date, survived this assault: the electoral commission. Their intent is clear: to set the stage for the biggest electoral fraud ever witnessed in the history of our land. And given the trend they have established since coming to power, there is no reason for doubting their resolve. These fellows will stop at nothing in their pursuit of absolute stranglehold on power.

But we can stop them. We scattered the entrenched Nyayo monolith to the four winds. In comparison, the Kibaki edifice is only a water lily, lush leaves, and bright flowers, but only a rumour for roots! We have stopped it once; we can do it again, more decisively. But we must remain on permanent vigil now. By literally buying the Nakuru town, Saku and North Horr parliamentary seats at public expense, they have proven the extent they are willing to go in their resolve to cling onto power. Forewarned is forearmed. Now we know the exact complexion of the foe. Sun Zuh, in his masterpiece, "The Art of War", would tell you there is nothing more valuable a foe would give to you than removing the element of surprise from his manoeuvre.

Between now and the next polls, all warriors for democracy and freedom must put on their amour, and, with iron hearts, be ready for combat. Prepare for a titanic battle, to liberate the motherland from the resurrected demons of misrule. The lives and limbs, blood and tears sacrificed on our democratisation odyssey cannot have all been in vain. You should never be afraid to take one big leap when it is certain that you cannot cross an abyss in two little steps. Rise and waste this reinvention of tyranny. Only that this time, we must take one giant step, not little tentative moves!

* The writer, currently a Fellow at the American University in Washington DC, is an Advocate of the High Court and Founder of The Chambers of Justice.

[politicalmaniac]

Job
There is nothing new in Ababu's piece.
It merely rehashes what I had alluded to in my post albeit in a much professional journalistic manner.

Just how will the Opposition unite? Where is the road map? How will the ODM conundrum be sorted out? Is there a will to do so? Is jomo jr REALLY interested in ngoaring kickback1 out or he doesnt want to burn the GEMA bridge with a view of inheriting the GEMA votes post kickbakc1?

A couple of folks will determine the fate of the progressive forces.
1) KM
2) Ruto
3) To a lesser degree jomo jr.

I deliberately left out the discombobulated kombo because he is political toast.

What will the three above do to maintain the potency of the ODM force?

[adongo12345]

Pmaniac

You have raised some issues in terms of the hurdles the ODM has to deal with to present a United Front to challenge Kibaki and now possibly Saitoti who might be the DP/Narc Kenya candidate.

Let me just clarify something about the Saitoti angle. I have always maintained that Kibaki may not have the energy to go for it come 2007. Presidential campaigns are pretty tough. Kibaki of course has the advantage of incumbency. He will have access to government airplanes and all the stuff but at least he has to be able to crawl into the airplanes. He seems much more energetic now, but we are looking at another year and a half.

Also Kibaki proved to be a disaster at the referendum when he kept insulting voters and basically talking nonsense most of the time. They would have to put him on a tight lease and drag him across the country. That might not work, Saitoti is the natural option for the DP crew and their minions in the Narc Kenya. He comes with a baggage but as anybody can see the ruling by the judges to me is very suspect. The judges more or less made political statements than delivering a legal opinion. I think there is much more to the saga than meets the eye. Never mind that it turns out the Kenyan taxpayer has coughed up another 350 million of our good money chasing bad money.

The fake war on corruption has become one of the most lucrative industries for Kibaki and his friends. That is another story. My point is that ODM should strategize on two possibilities of either facing Kibaki or Saitoti.

Anyhow this is what I would suggest for te ODM to get back to business.

First call an ODM National Leadership Conference within the next month. This should include the already declared candidates and all the key leaders of the movement that propelled it into prominence in the referendum campaign. I am talking about people like Jebii Kilimo, Dr. Mango, Julia Ojiambo, Omingo Magara Bill Kerrow, Mwandawiro etc. They should also extend invitation to political heavyweights and respected Kenyans like James Orengo, Wanyiri Kihoro, Phoroze Nowrojee and other grass root leaders from the length and breadth of the country as well as inviting human rights activists both inside and outside the country.

The purpose of this meeting would be to have open and frank discussions and dialogue in relation to the "Kenya We Want" after the Narc debacle.

Lets look at where things stand now with respect to the constitutional battle, the growing poverty in the land even as the economy "grows", the disastrous failure in fighting corruption, the growing army of unemployed youth, the plague of tribalism that Kibaki government has turned into a religion, the failure to rebuild our infrastructure, the CDF and its problems and challenges, the free primary education and the problems in the health sector, issues on security etc.

The focus should be on where does the ODM want to take the country in relation to these issues? What have been the short comings of the Kibaki regime in relation to these issues and how does the ODM seek to fix them?

The ODM should use such a conference to define broad guidelines on their agenda for the nation and then take this agenda for dialogue with Kenyans to chart a new path that can rekindle the dream of a free prosperous nation and a Kenya united in all its diversity.

The second major task of this Leadership Conference should be on determining the form and format of the ODM as an electoral machine. What is the nature of the coalition? So far it looks like it is going to be a coalition of parties.

The Conference should look into issues like the format of electing ODM candidates at all levels. The final decision should of course be left to the membership to determine in a democratic and transparent mechanism. Th eissue of electing constituency candidates should be discussed. In my view the best way might be to have joint nomination procedures where all the parties participate in one election to determine the candidate.

Technical problems like registration of the ODM as an electoral entity have to be tackled now so the group can focus on the big picture.

The overall goal of this leadership conference would be to bring together a big tent called the ODM where diverse voices are represented and heard and also one that can speak with one voice in terms of where we are going.

At the end the conference the participants should be able to install an Interim National Summit of the ODM that goes beyond just the presidential candidates and embraces other voices and it would be good to have the likes of James Orengo, Jebii and people like Nowrojee, Bill Kerrow and others in the mix. Issues of gender representation have to be addressed.

This Summit should be tasked with the responsibility of selling the ODM agenda to the Kenyan people through dialogue, discussions and rallies across the country beginning with a mass rally in Nairobi and covering at least one rally in every province.

What would these rallies do?

One is to explain the ODM vision. Explain and engage Kenyans in looking at why the stalemate on the constitutional reform is holding the entire nation hostage to a crooked constitution. Kenyans need to understand that a lot of the issues we are grappling with whether it crippling poverty, unequal distribution of resources, vaulting tribalism and the relentless corruption of the Kibaki government including the stealing of elections are all tied to the hopeless constitution we have today.

There is a school of thought out there that Kenyans are no longer interested in a new constitution. This is total rubbish and it is time to demystify this myth. Of course the constitution is just a piece of paper and without the political will it will mean nothing to Kenyans, but it is a critical piece in renewing democracy and economic survival and hope in the nation.

The Summit working with all branches of all coalition partners in ODM should also address practical things like mobilizing the whole nation for voter registration and access to IDs for those who don't have them.

The Summit would help the ODM to start working consistently and moving towards a cohesive platform and also opening avenues for dialogue with other progressive forces in the country with a view to ensuring that the ODM goes beyond just a grouping of old school political parties and a few friends.

The social agenda on issues of equity, land distribution, human rights and a genuine comprehensive war against mass poverty is what will determine the political discourse in the next decade. Kenyans are sick and tired of "let my tribe eat".

Finally I think the ODM should not in any way shape or form try to marginalize the Agikuyu community in their war against the Kibaki hegemonic interests. If anything I think it is crucial for the ODM to reach out to this community which voted by itself against the rest of the nation on the Katiba issue. The Kibaki think tank is based on locking up the Kikuyu vote and looking for crumbs here and there to top it up. Don't fall into that trap by isolating voters form these communities. Kenya belongs to all of us and that should be the mantra of the ODM.

In time the ODM should come up with its team of Presidential candidate, the VP, the PM and Deputies. I have my preferences but I will keep that to myself for now.

My point is that there is work to be done and just like I supported Narc in 2002 even though I had a lot of misgivings about them I am going with the ODM this time around and I have no problem pitching in my two cents worth of ideas on how to get this giant moving as it should and will.

Adongo.

[politicalmaniac]

A.O
Just saw your article. Indeed you have given a lot of thought to the issue
Let me digest it
I have forwarded it to some pals too for their opinion (its a diverse group)
Thanks

[kamalet]

I have read this thread with continued amusement.

To begin with, I think attempts at trashing NarC-K are misguided and it would be a good idea to give the new party a more serious look. It is not enough to just brand the new party as DP re-incarnated whilst it has recorded some amazing by-election wins. Claims that these wins were against the backdrop of government bribery are neither here nor there as it is silly to ignore the power of incumbency as it would be downright silly not to take advantage of these. I can assure you if the shoe was on the other foot, the same scene would have been played out. Just look at KANU crying about the same problem, yet in the 2002 elections this is exactly what was happening. No one can claim fairness against an incumbent power in a contest such as the one we had recently.

Whilst promises were made in the North, none were forthcoming in Nakuru where I thought a more fair fight would take place. I did mention earlier that the elections in Nakuru would be a good test of the cosmopolitan mood expected of 2007, but I see someone suggesting this is not the case, and the repeat of the referendum euphoria could carry the day. I think again that this is misguided. The campaigns in Nakuru were led by all the political heavyweights in Kenya today - Kibaki, Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo and Ruto so obviously these leaders must have seen the importance of this election. You ignore the recent elections at your own peril!!!

So what about this idea that ODM can come back? Recent polls indicated that Kenyans did not think highly of ODM and were perhaps more in tune with mainstream parties. Just look at those who thought of LDP or KANU as parties they would support against their view of ODM? I think ODM is not the way to go prior to an election...but would be a fantastic idea after an election. You would actually wonder whether the rather unintelligent people in LDP have not learnt their lessons well that they would want to go into another pre-election coalition called ODM!!!

But what about strategy? Just who needs the other? Does LDP need ODM or is it ODM that needs LDP? My view is that it appears as if LDP is the one that needs ODM and not the other way round. The cries we heard after the defeats in Nakuru and elsewhere that it should be a lesson to KANU for not agreeing to a coalition attests to my suggestion above. The desperate need to actualise ODM leads one to think that there is a possible weak link in LDP which can only be tied in by this marriage of convinience. Secondly, and ODM coalition pre-supposes that KANU (the other partner) would want to agree to a pre-election arrangement. The fact that the ODM link is Ruto in my view is a threat rather than a strength in that Ruto has a case pending under his head, as well as the present turmoil within the Kalenjin fuelled by Moi. So the big question that one asks, is why LDP is not able to go out to strengthen itself as to attract others to associate themselves with it as opposed to the current strategy where appears to be pushing for ODM.

The other bigger threat of LDP and even ODM is its over reliance in one leader as the one holding the organisation together. If Raila sneezes, LDP would be suffering Pneumonia whilst ODM will probably be down withwhooping cough! Today, LDP is nothing beyond Raila and it would be foolhardy to imagine that Kalonzo would have gotten any stripes without Raila's say so. That should explain why Kalonzo has a party registered by his cronies as he appears convinced that he was election material!!!

Finally, what about our man Saitoti? When the Bosire commission was formed, I wrote in various forums that I was convinced that the ultimate result of the inquiry was to launder and sanitize Saitoti. The fact that he has finally been cleared the Githunguri way means that he now has political carte blanche to view for the highest post in the land. Saitoti is a key cog in the Kibaki government and I expect that he will be reinstated to his Education portfolio when Kibaki announces his cabinet reshuffle.

If the story in People Newspaper - see www.abunuwasi.com/?q=detail&id=%20217 - is anything to go by, then we can be sure that the likes of Mwiraria and Kiraitu are also on their way back to government as the allegations that had them stepping aside have not been proven!!

What will happen is that the NARC-K fort is being strengthened with a national look to it. If you look at the leaders of the party it is clear where they are headed to and I expect that they are looking at the old guard as their financial and political backers.

When all is said and done, 2007 will be an interesting year for politics in Kenya!

[abdulmote]

Kamale,

What you have observed above sounds to a good degree quite real. And sometimes reality has the capacity to disgust many, myself included.

Bottomline is I can see a lot of disappointments to come and gone for Kenyans, from towards the end of 2003, to well beyond 2012! Unless of course another fresh surprise comes up, which has equal capacity in strength to the Rainbow Coalition pre election 2002, or the ODM pre Referendum. Other than that, we'll just continue to wallow in our familiar murk as our favorite hotshots are busy plotting against each other, instead of genuinely plotting for the poor mwananchi.

Wacha tuongoje zile fununu za OO, pengine kuna wengine watatuletea tamaa nzuri. Labda...just labda.

[adongo12345]

Kamale

I am glad you are amused. Part of my work as a writer is to entertain people.

Anyhow let me start with you rather bizarre assertion about the ODM coming back. Where did it go? The ODM is part of the Kenyan political fabric and like all living organisms they have a tendency to go through stages of growth, sometimes even backwards. Don't worry about the ODM, let us deal with that.

You mention the polls indicating Kenyans do not "think highly" of the ODM. If you read my original piece, I actually pointed out the huge contradiction in the question around parties. The poll asked respondents to choose between LDP, Kanu, Narc, Narc Kenya, ODM, The Fords etc. Anybody with minimum common sense can see it is impossible for a person to say they support say LDP and also ODM. You can only make one choice. Between you and me we know ODM is LDP and a big segment of Kanu. It is not possible from this poll to gage the popularity or lack thereof for the ODM. By the way the same polls also indicated the LDP leads in five of the 8 provinces. You don't seem too enthusiastic about that.

Then you go on and on as to whether it is the LDP which needs the ODM or the other way round. The LDP is a big part of the ODM. It is like asking your body if it needs your foot. You see how silly that is?

I am not going to waste my time arguing about whether Narc K rigged itself into a handful of victories in the by election which seems to be sending you guys into cloud nine. I'll leave you there to enjoy the moment.



But I will say this. The ODM relaunch which is a matter of weeks away in my estimation is going to be a significant political development. My sense is that it is decision time for the big guns and the ODM has been jolted into reality and they are going to be very inclusive which sometimes is not a good idea, but in the battlefield sometimes it is good to reduce your enemies even if you don't increase your friends.

To those waiting for pure bread new blood to sweep the country off its feet into the promised land I am afraid you have a long wait coming. The struggle moves on in dynamic ways. Narc has been a disaster but nobody can claim it didn't move the country forward. We got rid of Moi when everybody and people like Kamale who worship incumbency promised us it was impossible. We will get rid of the DP gang messing the country as we speak and we don't need angels to do that. We need genuine patriots and they are plenty in the nation.

I think our country is in good hands. Kenyans are awake and smart. The Narc K tribal agenda clothed behind "national" leaders (errand boys) like Tuju and Mungatana is going to flop badly. Lets keep it coming.

Adongo

Note I forgot about the Saitoti thing and the "big" news about kina Kiraitu headed back to Cabinet.





Saitoti as the DP/Narc Kenya presidential candidate will be a step backward from Kibaki. So it really doesn't matter. Once we are set to tackle Kibaki we can take on any of his junior replacements. Hapo Hakuna shida. In terms of Kiraitu and Mwiraria going back to the Kibaki cabinet, don't you think they look good together? That stuff has no political value for Kibaki and he would be dump to try that. Quite frankly I don't care.

[kamalet]

Adongo,

I think you are blind to what I write...but that is okay.

If you cannot understand what I mean by asking who needs who in the case of LDP and ODM, and still goes to give the body and foot analogy coming to the conclusion that am silly goes a long way to show how blind people can be.

Why would you be convinced that a weak LDP can be a factor in ODM or in any other coalition or even the converse where a strong LDP is trying to stay in a weak ODM? Wake up and smell the coffee mate!

I have no interest in LDP or even ODM, but I would think that you can be objective and ask questions of the party you support!!

[roughrider]

Adongo,

If Kenyans were not so blinded by tribalism then 2007 would have been easy. It would have been easy to merely ask if Kibaki delivered what his government promised the people of Kenya; has Kibaki fought endemic corruption? Did he have political will to realize a new constitutional dispensation? Did Kenya become more or less tribal? etc Easy questions with easy answers…

Conversely the other question would be: who will give us a better deal? Who stands for what?

Make no mistake – we shall still ask those questions – but tribalism will stand in the way. People, and there is ample evidence here, will think about whether Kibaki is a kikuyu like them or not and this might color judgment.

Ethnicity is a reality we must deal with – all that NARC-Kenya-DP-GEMA (for its is the same thing, isn’t it?) needs to do is to make sure they have a Kikuyu candidate and they, courtesy of tribal-based voting, will be a potent political force.

That is why it is my considered view that we must devolve power and make the center irrelevant to the development of the periphery. This way the prospect of a Kikuyu president for the next 30 - 50 years will be less daunting.

Alternatively, exasperated politicians will try to form a broad based ethnic coalition to counter the Kikuyu hegemony in 2007.

[abdulmote]

RR, I must admit that when I logged in to read your piece, your observations took me rather by surprise for I least expected it to be so! Having said that, I am glad that you could also face up to reality and say what you had to say, although I must add that the problem inherent in ours, IMHO, does not solely just entail the tribal arithmatic, but also includes the sickening individual and selfish attitudes our torch bearers seem to commonly posses.

That aside, I must reassert my inclinations of thought that what we are going through is not just a transition or political evolution Adongo and others prefer to belive we are going through, that we may reach our final destination if there is one. I find the theory that good governance is a process which requires to be evolving with time rather uncomfortable to sit with and confidently tolerate. To me, this could be played as an effective cover simply to maintain and retain the status quo for as long as possible for the ineterested parties.

I mean look at the democratic gains which our nation had achieved, in a way, as a nock-on effect of the 'demcracy wave' which was sweeping the world, and as fuelled by the 'prestroica' and the collapse of akina chauchescu and the Barlin Wall. So much we had gained thereafter, and so much we have lost in such a short while! And whether the nation will maintain the consistency of gaining and building upon those gains positively and persistently, will without doubt depend on many factors, most of which rely upon the kind of leadership our nation is going to enjoy. Bottom line is, that pace and direction cannot naively be taken for granted, but must be deliberately enhanced and pursued if anything positive is to come out of it.

In other words, I think more needs to be done with vigour and clarity of intent, and the cohesiveness of the masses must be developed by leadership of integrity, selflessness and honesty if we are to realise our wishes and desires, and this is certainly not an easy and simple task.

But for the time being, let us all enhance our vigilance without bias, that the flame of hope may remain burning amindst the mist that is threatening to destroy us.

Keep thinking and planning, ladies and gents, please keep thinking that our nation may stay alive.

At this pace and trend, revolution of our minds is the only surest way out!

[politicalmaniac]

A.O,
Judging from the news today, it seems Like you had prescience knowledge, and the LDP folks read your script!! The opposition has realized that they have to be careful about the divide, win and rule strategy icumbents like the one we have, do employ.

The points you brought out in your piece are erudite and make sense.
But, why are you so certain that the sleeper in chief wont defend? I think its much riskier strategy to use Saitoti as proxy to continue the MKM era. Despite "the laudering and sanitization" of Saitoti as Kamale put it above, Saitoti still has very high negatives, an uncertain Maasai base (can he win his seat?), is a stodgy campaigner and I still associate him with the GB scandal. Infact a number of folks are pissed off with the verdict and now are decrying the Kiraitu driven radical surgery in the judiciary. In peoples mind Saitoti is but a sophisticated thief. Demonizing him will be very easy, unlike the reclusive sleeper who is very difficult to target and directly bash. For Saitoti to get any national political traction, it will be a uphill battle.

In view of the latest development in LDP, I guess ODM or some other umbrella organization will have to born and streamlined. Ruto says he is for ODM and so does R, and the rest of them. But when questioned, none of them talk about the mechanics of actually forming a viable vehicle that can be described as ODM.

A few folks who met Ruto in Maryland and N. carolina were fed on a steady diet of retail politics of 'fighting poverty, land reform, eradication of coruption etc'. Thats all well and good. But how do you carry on these "programes" when NOT in power? Ruto danced around the ODM question. R didnt shed much light on it either. Perhaps they are still uncertain and not sure what to do. And thats where this national conference you talked about comes in.

The outstanding technical issues of the ODM name etc seems to be topmost on their minds too.

So I guess we shall just have to wait and see just how the putative alliance will be forged, how the candidates will be deployed and how power will be shared. Its a tough and uncertain road ahead, especially with the LDP national elections in Sept '06. What ODMers dont want is negative fallout from disputed elections. If I am R, I give in to KM's wishes and go for direct polls and see what happens. I do this just to maintain ODM unity.

[kamalet]

Pmaniac,


Once again you bring up the same question I asked Adongo and cannot seem to get an answer. Why does LDP need an ODM alliance to win an election and more so the pre-occupation with the the alliance instead of internal strengthening of the party to attract others to it as a senior partner as opposed to an equal partner?

[adongo12345]

Kamale & Others

Kamale I thought I answered your question about the LDP needing ODM and vice versa. The LDP is simply trying to extend the political tent bringing in other organised groups and their leadership into the fold. What is wrong with that? I do agree with you that the LDP needs to strengthen itself on the ground even to be more attractive to other political forces that are determined to toss out the failed Narc regime that was hijacked by the DP. I think the announcement by the LDP to hold its National Delegates Conference on Sept. 29, 06 is a step in the right direction.

In my view the big challenge faced by groups like LDP is to move away from traditional political party system into building social movements that have teeth and an agenda based on aspirations of the masses of the working poor and the suffering farmers as well as the growing army of idle youth languishing on the margins of social and economic life of our nation.

The ODM is of course a movement and not a political party. There is a big difference. Political parties in Kenya are just for elections. They have no life outside being conveyor belts to parachute people into bunge. The ODM for example came about when Kenyans across political parties found a common agenda that was dear to them. The ODM rallies were not just political rallies where leaders yelled at the people. They were events. Folks came with colour and energy. There was a strong bond between the leaders and the masses. That is what we have to rebuild.

For electoral purposes of course parties like the LDP have to do the necessary and put the structures in place. I am sure there are going to be some fireworks at the Conference and it might be necessary to separate the opportunists from those who are in for the long haul. I am glad they are not sighing away from the challenge just to keep everybody happy.

My advice to the LDP and whatever partners they have to rejuvenate the ODM is to take the movement to the masses and let the Kenyan people take the steering wheel of the movement. That is how the original Rainbow movement came about. You could feel the energy of the ordinary wananchi when they came out to embrace the Rainbow team that had dared the unthinkable -challenge Moi to his face.

This is what we are going to have to do with the ODM and that means the ODM leadership also have to work with grass root organizations and other social justice groupings and integrate their agenda into the ODM platform.

Briefcase parties are not going to win the next election. Endless meetings in hotels won't do either. The magic of the ODM was absorbing the heart beat of the nation and making it its own. We are going to do it again and then Kibaki can really start to tetemeka. Yap, wembe ni ule ule. It shall be done.

Adongo.

[politicalmaniac]

Kamale,
Thats a rhetorical question that I want to say has an obvious answer. You know just all too well how the GOVT and its machinery can 'win' elections. How quickly you 'forget'!

Remember the Moi era when he would end up 'victorious' with a minority of the vote? well this GOVT is honing the same strategy and wants to win at all costs. The only sure fireway to subvert its intentions is to have an insurmountable voter turnout with the singular aim of deposing it!

We need a truly representative and responsive GOVT, not a narrowly focused MKM affair, and after the euphoria of the 5-seat by election wanes and reality sets in, I would venture to say that this unrepresentative GOVT will find itself against the ropes again. The rope a dope strategy by the NARCK folks will only go so far.

This GOVT has scuttled very important and neccesary reforms, institutionalized tribalism, abetted rampant corruption and it needs to be retired. Unfortunately the power of incumbency still has to be reckoned with.

Thats why like minded parties need to come together. There is no way the incumbent will be beaten, given the resources at its disposal, with the current constitution still in place without a coalition of like minded parties.

The referendum gave us a playbook to follow.
Thats what we need to do. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the current regime, the recent 5-seat election result not withstanding. But the scattered political affilitions need to coalesce together and ngoa the reptilian MKM regime. This regime will stop at nothing to keep the gravy train from trolling the Mt Kenya region exclusively.

Once the MKM are out the constitution needs to be overhauled, and made more responsive to the peoples needs. That should be the first order on the agenda. This scenario we have of an all powerful imperious presidency is not the model we need.

[job]

A.O & other debators,

Very good points have been raised by all of you.
The ODM leadership had better give a serious look at Adongo's blueprint if it hopes to capture the aspiration and dream of Kenyans the Rainbow-2002-way.

I totally agree with A.O's 3-point blueprint ( leadership conference & forming structure -within a month ; appointing summit & producing national agenda; selling agenda to public through provincial rallies) .

Besides, the constituent parties like LDP, KANU (Ruto, Okemo, & Mutulas side), & LPK should conduct internal strengthening which they seem to have started.

Of course the ODM agenda must be specifically spelt out in realistic terms. Easier said than done. Let us see how ODM will face up to the challenge.

Regarding coalitions; most recent polls hint that majority Kenyans prefer coalitions unlike Moi, Kibaki and Uhuru who have all directly benefited from dictatorial single-party monoliths. Their mouth-watering appetite for single-party domination & bigman patronage must not escape scrutiny.

Kibaki has proved way beyond doubt that he cannot practice coalition politics since he does not believe in the team spirit of multiple-party governments ruling as a coalition. The word sharing is basically not in his vocabulary.

As other political crafters are busy plotting alliance pacts,..he is busy crawling out (actually sneaking out) of the Narc alliance he himself helped form,...into his tribal based enclave called Narc-K aka DP. His campaigns for Mirugi Kariuki's son in Nakuru under the Narc-K banner was a political statement of finally "raising his head out" of the empty Narc shell. Without batting an eyelid, he is now officially comfortable in his ethnic boma of Narc-K. Phew!

I have lately heard a few blind sycophants of Kibaki proclaim that Narc-K will invite other party partners to join them (yaani inviting them to be swallowed by a monolithic Narc-K). First of all, they should realize that Kibaki hates coalitions in the first place and all invitations are restricted to his terms. Kibaki is firmly with Moi and Uhuru in the lone ranger "we-can-go-it-alone" school of thought. So you either join his boat and enroll in Kibaki sycophancy or join and just shut up.

Kibaki's bigmanism and greed will single handedly do Narc-K harm with regards to attracting partners,...all parties having witnessed just how badly he treated coalition partners (LDP, Ford-K, & NPK) who united behind him, campaigned and thrust him to power. Once bitten, twice shy; there is simply no partnerships with Kibaki.

Why do Kenyans overwhelmingly prefer coalition type governments today? My opinion is that Kenyans have quite matured politically. Having witnessed the flaws in monolithic one-party governments, tribal oligarchies and political patronage,.....many are yearning to curtail escalating tribal favouritism & power cabals through executive-inclusitivity-bargains, coming in way of tribal alliances and such political pacts.

Broad based coalitions when in power, may give the general perception of the majority being "represented" in the executive arm of government, whom you pay tax to, hence debunking the notion "No taxation without (executive) representation" .

I take note of the fact that recent polls concurrently show that many Kenyans have little regard for their legislature and consider their representation through parliament as having very little consequence.

History shows that during the Kenyatta and Moi eras, including today's Kibaki regime; being a Minister or holding a senior position in the executive arm of government say a PS, or head of a public body, wields you more power, clout and even political muscle than merely being a toothless MP (often used as rubberstamps to implement executive orders)

The big question is; If many Kenyans prefer coalition governments, is ODM likely to be that favoured coalition for 2007? Its quite impossible to know right now. My safer prediction would be that any united front against the Kibaki treachery has a good chance of winning the 2007 elections.

Public perceptions of an ODM structure & framework (akin to A.O's blueprint) being in the works, will definitely heighten anxiety amongst many. But it is ODM's capacity to beat all odds and remain united , that will be the determining factor for it's eventual fate.

On Kamales point on LDP needing ODM or something going like that,......I think Kamale needs to revisit the pre-Rainbow days and understand the fact that LDP entered into a coalition with NAK with one aim of removing the Moi machinery from power. True both partners needed each other to achieve their common goal and they did succeed.

There is no difference this time round. LDP & other coalition partners need each other to achieve some common goals, of which one is removing the isolationist Kibaki from power. Besides, unlike Moi, Kibaki & Uhuru,..LDP does not subscribe to the "we-want-to-go-it-alone" strategy. They share like most responding to opinion polls, that broad and inclusive coalitions are the way to go in politics today.

If that coalition is ODM or whatever name is chosen for it,...so be it. When that time finally comes, it may be expected to be a force to reckon with. It may set forth another wave of euphoria if you understand Kenya's characteristic short term amnesia. If they do succeed in removing Kibaki,..that will be a step forward. I don't find anything amusing there.

Infact the only amusing thing seems to be Kamale's assertion that,........ by laundering Saitoti and reinstating him to the Cabinet alongside the rogue political-gangsta called Kiraitu and the Anglo-fleecer called Mwiraria (banned from stepping major Western capitals) then that is a slam dunk by Kibaki.

Is that really strengthening Kibaki's Fort or weakening it? How many extra votes do these fellas bring in his base (besides the ones Kibaki would have got himself anyway) and how many potential benefit-of-doubt votes does Kibaki loose outside his base by re-appointing these dubious characters? Sometimes it's good to think outside the box (yaani your base).

unedited.
Job

[abdulmote]

Every time I read the line "the need to remove Kibai from power...", I cannot help but be confronted with the question of "thereafter...?"!

Yes, certainly Kibaki has to be removed from power...BUT...apart from working out the strategies of the said "removal", do we even stop to think what sureties should be put in place that we MAY NOT go back to square one?

We must not forget the level and qualities of promises Kenyans were pledged when there was the need of removing Moi from power. Yet, despite all the euphoria and energies that backed them up..., this is what we ended up with..., how sad! But we still DO NOT have a follproof system to curtail such a possibility ever confronting us again!

Waone hao, how can anybody differentiate between what akina Kalonzo, Ruto, and even Raila hold? Afterall, were they not all once sharing the same plate of ugali?

OK, before you start chewing on me, let me clerify that all I am saying is we certainly DO NEED and HAVE TO make sure that it will not be so easy for the people of Kenya to be cheated again, ever! Do you see where I am coming from?

Raila needs Kalonzo, but Kalonzo needs Moi, who needs Kibaki, who needs UHuru, who needs Ruto, who needs Raila! Can you see the circle?

But who do the people have?

[politicalmaniac]

A.O
A.O, I am not sure wether these politicians who profess to be in ODM realize the point you put up, namely that ODM should be a movement and a catalyst for political/social change. I think their view is still primeval, in that they view it as a vehicle for power acquisition, rather than comprehensive reform. I would venture to add that at the national level no one but R, is a student of political systems, who has vested a lot of time reading and boning up on the theories of governance. As I indicated earlier on, a lot of the top LDP luminaries are into short termist, populist, retail politics, and they are not taking a long term pragmatic view of actually building movements with a definate philosophy.

Job,
Personally I dont quote the "polls" because they are just plain wierd. But suffice it to say, my own feeling as I meet folks here and there, is that coalition politics are here to to stay for sometime. LDP is lucky in that it has pockets of support in most of the 8 provinces. I totally agree with this paragraph you penned below.

"Broad based coalitions when in power, may give the general perception of the majority being "represented" in the executive arm of government, whom you pay tax to, hence debunking the notion "No taxation without (executive) representation"

I feel alienated from the present GOVT, whose aim seems to be stuffing the GOVT posts with GEMA folks, not casting the fishing net wider to include other non-GEMA folks, not responsive as far as political reform is concerned, and abetting corruption.

I think the EA Standard editorial? warned LDP against a negative fallout from its impending elections. They have to be very careful. In so far as they are to be commended for holding elections, the loosers must behave, lest people just give up and say to hell with these folks!

Lastly, my hommie Kombo kombo is a strange animal who wants keep his icing and cake while munching at it. This guy should be treated with contempt that he deserves even as he is invited to the negotiation table. LDP will make things interesting in the 07 elections in Western and Kombo might have no more than his usual fistful of vituperative MP's. He is sinking in political quicksand and has no clue as to how to dig himself out.

[kamalet]

[quote author=politicalmaniac board=general thread=
Lastly, my hommie Kombo kombo is a strange animal who wants keep his icing and cake while munching at it. This guy should be treated with contempt that he deserves even as he is invited to the negotiation table. LDP will make things interesting in the 07 elections in Western and Kombo might have no more than his usual fistful of vituperative MP's. He is sinking in political quicksand and has no clue as to how to dig himself out.

[/quote]

Pmaniac,

Do you have a logical explanation of what Wetangula was doing with Narc-K MPs during the recent by-elections in Northern Kenya? I thought he was a Kombo crony or is there a message I perhaps am not reading?

I think Kombo lost it a long time ago and will have to seriously re-think his strategies, and he might be better of with the GNU....for now!

[adongo12345]

Good Morning Ndugu Kamale

What do you think about Wako's decision to appeal the Saitoti ruling? Interesting isn't it? Messes up stuff for Kibaki and the tribal line up for his new cabinet.




It is crazy when the right hand has no clue what the left hand is cooking. Or may be everybody is fighting for survival.

We all know Wako is wack, but I think he has made the right decision. Raila got it right on the money with his argument that when Wako terminated the case he(Raila) filed against Saitoti by entering a nolle prosequi in 1995, that cannot be considered a trial and should therefore not be cited as a reason why Saitoti cannot be tried again. He was never tried in that case. How dumb can the Judges be to consider a nolle prosequi as a trial?

www.eastandard.net/archives/cl/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143956442

Says AG.

"By holding that the Attorney General is stopped from preferring any criminal charges against Prof. Saitoti since he had previously entered a nolle prosequi terminating a private prosecution brought against Prof. Saitoti by Hon. Raila Odinga, the learned judges completely disregarded the clear and unambiguous provisions of s.82 of the Criminal Procedure Code which states that a nolle prosequi is not a bar to subsequent prosecution or charge. In any event, the nolle prosequi was entered because of failure by Hon. Odinga to comply with procedural requirement of giving prior notice to the Attorney General and cannot by any stretch of imagination be used to apply the “double jeopardy” principle"

It looks like the judges in the Saitoti case were fishing for anything to help in the "cleansing" of the good prof. They overreached and screwed the whole thing up. Now Saitoti has to wait for Gicheru to get him another friendly team of judges may be this time to declare Saitoti above the law. Contradictions galore.

As for Kombo, he is in real chit as Ndugu Wahome(RIP) would say. His only chance is to swallow his pride and join Wambui's new bling bling party, Narc K, get some cash flowing his way and may be retain his seat. People like Wetangula are known political prostitutes who got whipped at the referendum and we will whip them again in their backyard.

The ground is shifting daily and the drama is just beginning. All eyes are on the forthcoming LDP National Delegates Conference, forget Kibaki's new cabinet. A few people will get a few flags that may end up costing them their seats in parliament. Let's roll.

Adongo.

[kamalet]

Adongo,

I think you need to read the whole press statement issued by Wako as he seems quite clear that he does not have any evidence against Saitoti nor even a case file upon which to charge Saitoti. He says the intention of the appeal is to get the legal stuff on the judgement corrected as opposed to fight to get a prosecution.

Here is the statement in full. I have highlighted the area I allude to above.

PRESS STATEMENT ON THE JUDGEMENT


IN THE CASE OF HON. PROF. GEORGE SAITOTI


I HAVE NOW HAD TIME TO STUDY, ANALYSE AND RE-EVALUATE THE JUDGEMENT BY A BENCH OF THE HIGH COURT DELIVERED ON 31ST JULY 2006 WHICH GRANTED AN ORDER OF CERTIORARI QUASHING SEVERAL PARAGRAPHS OF THE BOSIRE COMMISSION AS THEY RELATED TO HON. PROF. SAITOTI AND AN ORDER OF PROHIBITION BARRING THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FROM INSTITUTING ANY CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OR CHARGES AGAINST PROF. SAITOTI ARISING OUT OF THE GOLDENBERG AFFAIR. THE JUDGEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED THE WELL KNOWN AND SETTLED PRINCIPLES OF CONSTITUTIONAL, ADMINISTRATIVE, CRIMINAL LAW AND LEGAL JURISPRUDENCE TOPSY TURVY: LET ME GIVE A FEW EXAMPLES:


1. THEY ERRED, MISDIRECTED AND MISAPPLIED THE PRINCIPLE OF “DOUBLE JEOPARDY” BY FAILING TO APPRECIATE THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY HAS NO CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIVE POWERS OR MANDATE; THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IS NOT A CRIMINAL TRIAL COURT AND DOES NOT “TRY” “ACQUIT” OR “CONVICT” THOSE SUSPECTED OF CRIMINAL OFFENCES. THE EFFECT OF THIS JUDGEMENT IS THAT PARLIAMENT CAN BY RESOLUTION ABSOLVE ANY PERSON OF ANY CRIMINAL CULPABILITY. UNDER S.77 OF THE CONSTITUTION, THE GUILT OR INNOCENCE OF ANY PERSON IS DETERMINED BY AN IMPARTIAL AND INDEPENDENT COURT OF COMPETENT JURISDICTION.




2. BY HOLDING THAT THE ATTORNEY GENERAL IS ESTOPPED FROM PREFERRING ANY CRIMINAL CHARGES AGAINST PROF. SAITOTI SINCE HE HAD PREVIOUSLY ENTERED A NOLLE PROSEQUI TERMINATING A PRIVATE PROSECUTION BROUGHT AGAINST PROFESSOR SAITOTI BY HON. RAILA ODINGA THE LEARNED JUDGES COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS PROVISIONS OF S.82 OF THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURE CODE WHICH STATES THAT A NOLLE PROSEQUI IS NOT A BAR TO SUBSEQUENT PROSECUTION OR CHARGE. IN ANY EVENT, THE NOLLE PROSEQUI WAS ENTERED BECAUSE OF FAILURE BY HON. ODINGA TO COMPLY WITH PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENT OF GIVING PRIOR NOTICE TO THE ATTORNEY GENERAL AND CANNOT BY ANY STRETCH OF IMAGINATION BE USED TO APPLY THE “DOUBLE JEOPARDY” PRINCIPLE.




3. THE HOLDING THAT THE ATTORNEY GENERAL HAS GIVEN AN ASSURANCE, UNDERTAKING OR PROMISE THAT PROF. SAITOTI WILL NOT BE CHARGED WITH ANY CRIMINAL OFFENCE IN RELATION TO 15% EXPORT COMPENSATION SCHEME IS WITHOUT ANY FACTUAL OR EVIDENTIAL BASIS. THE LEARNED JUDGES COMPLETELY MISCONSTRUED THE PURPOSE, TENOR AND CONTENT OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL’S CONTRIBUTION TO THE DEBATE IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WHICH FAR FROM GIVING ANY SUCH ASSURANCE UNDERTAKING OR PROMISE WAS TO SUPPORT AN AMENDMENT TO KEEP THE GOLDENBERG AFFAIR ALIVE AND OPEN TO ENABLE INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTIONS TO ENSUE. THE READING OF THE HANSARD REPORT WILL BEAR ME OUT.




4. THE LEARNED JUDGES COMPLETELY FAILED TO APPRECIATE THAT ALTHOUGH THE POLICY MAY HAVE REGULARLY ARRIVED AT, ITS IMPLEMENTATION REQUIRED AN AMENDMENT TO THE LOCAL MANUFACTURERS (EXPORT COMPENSATION) ACT AS HAD BEEN ADVISED BY THE CHIEF PARLIAMENTARY COUNSEL IN THE OFFICE OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL, THE LATE MR. A. BULUMA AND FAILURE SO TO DO, RENDERED THE SCHEME ILLEGAL OR UNLAWFUL.




5. THE LEARNED JUDGES FAILED TO APPRECIATE THAT THE PERIOD WHICH THE ATTORNEY GENERAL CAN BE ACCUSED OF INERTIA HAS NOT EVEN BEGAN TO RUN AS THE ATTORNEY GENERAL HAS NOT UP TO NOW RECEIVED AN INVESTIGATION FILE WITH PRIMA FACIE EVIDENCE AGAINST PROF. SAITOTI. IN ANY EVENT, THERE IS NO LIMITATION PERIOD IN RESPECT OF CRIMINAL OFFENCES. THE BOSIRE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY CONSTITUTED A “FRESH EVENT” AND HAD UNEARTHED FRESH EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE GOLDENBERG AFFAIR.




6. CONTRARY TO WELL SETTLED PRINCIPLES OF JUDICIAL REVIEW, THE JUDGES RULED THAT THEY HAD THE POWER AND JURISDICTION TO REVIEW, RE-EVALUATE, CORRECT AND SUBSTITUTE THE FACTUAL FINDINGS AND DETERMINATIONS OF THE BOSIRE COMMISSION AS IF THE BOSIRE COMMISSION WAS A TRIAL COURT AND THEY WERE THE APPELLATE COURT AND THEREBY ARROGATED UNTO THEMSELVES A POWER THEY DID NOT HAVE. THEY FAILED TO HOLD, AS THEY SHOULD HAVE, THAT ANY EXPLANATIONS AND CONTENTIOUS CONSTITUTED ANTICIPATORY DEFENCES TO BE RAISED IN THE EVENT OF CRIMINAL PROSECUTIONS BEING INSTITUTED AGAINST HIM.




CONSEQUENTLY




1. THE FEW EXAMPLES OUTLINED ABOVE OUT OF THE MANY, DEMONSTRATE THAT THE FINDINGS AND PRONOUNCEMENTS IN THE HIGH COURT JUDGEMENT WERE MADE IN GRAVE ERROR, NOVEL BUT UNTENABLE JURISPRUDENCE WAS MADE AND A DANGEROUS LEGAL PRECEDENT CREATED. I AM THEREFORE OF THE CONSIDERED OPINION THAT THE HIGHEST COURT OF THE LAND, THAT IS, THE COURT OF APPEAL OF KENYA MUST BE GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTERROGATE AND DETERMINE THE LEGALITY, PROPRIETY AND CORRECTNESS OF THE FINDINGS AND PRONOUNCEMENTS IN THE SAID JUDGEMENT. I HAVE THEREFORE DIRECTED THE DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC PROSECUTIONS TO FILE NOTICE OF APPEAL AND ON RECEIPT OF A CERTIFIED COPY OF THE PROCEEDINGS AND JUDGEMENT (WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN APPLIED FOR) TO FILE AN APPEAL AGAINST THE SAID JUDGEMENT.




2. FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT, LET ME STATE THAT THE DECISION TO FILE AN APPEAL IS NOT A DECISION TO PROSECUTE PROF. SAITOTI. MY FOCUS IS THAT WE RECEIVE AN AUTHORITATIVE INTERPRETATION ON THESE IMPORTANT POINTS OF LAW BY THE COURT OF APPEAL. AS STATED IN PARAGRAPH 5 HEREOF, I HAVE NOT EVEN RECEIVED AN INVESTIGATION FILE ON THE MATTER. IF I RECEIVE SUCH A FILE THE MATTER WILL BE DECIDED ON IN A ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAW. THE OCCASION HAS NOT ARISEN FOR ME TO MAKE A DECISION OR CHANGE MY MIND ON THE MATTER. THE ORDER OF PROHIBITION AGAINST THE ATTORNEY GENERAL WAS ISSUED PREMATURELY AND ON A PURELY SPECULATIVE BASIS.

(S. AMOS WAKO)E.G.H.,F.C.I.Arb.,S.C.,M.P.


ATTORNEY-GENERAL




8TH AUGUST, 2006

[adongo12345]

Kamale

Actually I read the statement already. But thanks anyways. Now between you and me neither is a lawyer. But a few things are plenty obvious.

Wako's statement indicating he has not made his mind whether to prosecute Saitoti or not is very much in order. In other words he may or may not prosecute the case. I don't see where Wako suggests he has no evidence, and even if he doesn't he is free to investigate using the wealth of information already available in the public domain. For people desperate to see Saitoti escape the noose of justice it is understandable you interpret the statement to mean Wako has no intention of prosecuting Saitoti.

Secondly it is important to understand that Wako had not started any prosecution against Saitoti when Saitoti took the matter to the Constitutional Court. Wako is right in saying Saitoti's case and the Judges ruling is based on the speculation that Wako was going to prosecute Saitoti. So in this case Wako is just stating the obvious and making it clear that appealing the case has nothing to do with whether Saitoti will be prosecuted or not. Now you see why even at the age of 46 I still intend to go to Law School. At least I can do better than those miserable Judges. What the heck were they smoking?

The significance of this appeal is in the political ramifications it portends. The Kibakites were already boasting about one of their moneybags (thanks to Goldengerg) and potential contender, one George Saitoti was now free to join the cabinet and bolster the Kibaki/Wambui team. Not so fast Amigo, that is what Wako is saying. Kibaki is going to be hard pressed to drag Saitoti back to the cabinet when there is an appeal against his "free Saitoti" ruling. It is just going to be in bad taste and even as tacky as Kibaki is he might have difficulties with that. Never mind that Saitoti is their man to work with Moi, Biwott and their herlings to mess things up in the Rift Valley for the ODM. With Saitoti still stuck in the mud you can forget the Anglo thieves of kina Kiraitu and Mwiraria coming back to the cabinet.

At the end of the day, we are dealing with a political nightmare for the ruling elite. This is not a legal battle. The law is just intruding as it often does in politics.

My contention is that the Kibakites were praying Wako would come up and say he doesn't agree with the ruling but since the courts have spoken he will leave it to history to judge who was wrong or right. He (Wako) would have been given an award. He would then have been forced to resign, "gracefully" and promised a seat in parliament even as a nominated MP. They still earn the same amount of money. But the Judges had attacked Wako personally and made some outrightly stupid rulings like the one about nolle prosequi being a trial. Even a first year law student knows that is rubbish. So Wako tried to redeem himself and here we are. Back to the drawing board.

The truth of the matter is that the Wakos of this world are not going to prosecute the looters and thieves like Saitoti and others who have robbed our country with impunity (The robbers are running the country as we speak.). That is a job we will have to do ourselves and that is why I like the appeal.

There is a good chance the Court of Appeal, however corrupt it may be would rule against Saitoti simply because the Judges made very obvious mistakes. That is all we need and Ndugu Saitoti will be a sitting duck in the line of fire even if he were to become the president of the Republic of Kenya.

Tuonane mbele Ndugu yangu.
Adongo.

[kamalet]

AO


As you rightly say, non of us are lawyers and we could be wrong in our assessment of whether nyamu and his group were right or wrong.

But I would like to play some politics here by trying to see through Wako's wording of his statement and also whether he will see it through.

1. Wako claims that he has not to date received AN investigation file with prima facie evidence against Saitoti, which means either the investigators have not gathered anything since the Bosire report was released, as one can rightly claim that Wako never had any evidence before against Saitoti otherwise he would have charged him long time ago.

2. The decision to expunge Saitoti's name from the report has a precedent (and you will not like it!! ;D) since Biwott's name was also expunged from a similar report. If this was to hold and considering that no other evidence exists against Saitoti apart from statements in the Bosire commission, will not the man walk away scot free?

3. By expressly stating that his appeal has nothing to do with whether he prosecutes Saitoti or not, has he also not confirmed what I am suggesting above? The fact that he says his appeal is premised on wanting the law clarified following the judgement and not a reinstatement of the power to prosecute Saitaoti makes it a loaded statement.

4. Wako has 30 days to file his appeal and these expire on 31st August. Will there be a clamour to follow up the filing of the appeal? Once the appeal is filed, will there be an urgency to hear it? These are many questions I am asking but they point at a plot that is way beyond you and I.

5. Can Saitoti force Wako to either prosecute him or leave him alone? Surely all the Pheroz and Ngatia need do is go back to Nyamu and file another reference claiming that Wako has done nothing since April when Saitoti " requested the president to allow him to step aside" to facilitate investigations, and that this is hurting his political career hence his human rights. This may perhaps force Wako's hand to finally absolve Saitoti since he has no evidence (in hand) to prosecute and cannot just sit back and "hurt" Saitoti's political career! In this respect, since Wako's appeal is on a matter of law and not Saitoti's guilt or otherwise, if Saitoti can force Wako's hand through the courts, why would not Kibaki re-appoint Saitoti back into the cabiner?

As you can see, there are many workable scenarios that allow the final laundering of Saitoti and his come back into cabinet. All legal, but not necessarily in the public interest!