Post by subsaharanite on Sept 6, 2011 21:16:02 GMT 3
Kenyans should first of all try to understand the reason why G-7 alliance was formed. Its a very selfish one. Its only purpose was and still is, to prevent Raila from gaining presidency. If you look at their meetings, you can easily tell that people like Eugene are there without knowing really what their positions are. He looks like a lost sheep, like a wannabe who wants to hang out with people perceived to be ‘great leaders’. He will never deliver the western vote as he is perceived as a man riding on his late brother’s name. The western voters always vote by their hearts, not by kin.
Kalonzo on the other hand is playing safe. He wants to have something for himself come 2012. If he cannot be handed presidency, he wants to matter in the next government. On the other hand, he may want to repay Raila what he outrightly denied him in 07 so that he vindicates himself. All in all, he just wants to be a de-facto force in the next elections. ZIPAPA, has little value to the group as he does not have a substantial control of the coastal votes. Omingo Magara is even worse has he does not even have a mandate from his own people. He is despised by other Kisii leaders. Despite the fact that PNU got some votes in Kisii, its is widely known that those were stolen votes, Kisii is squarely an ODM region. Kiraitu Murungi, has a substantial value to the group. His Meru and Embu votes almost always go to the Kikuyu. However, there are clear divisions amongst his people right now as some of them feel like he is only favoring his constituency.
Uhuru on the other hand is just riding on pressure that his people are exerting on him. Kikuyus have enjoyed great prosperity in the last ten 8 years that Kibaki has been their leader, so they want the status quo to remain. They know that over 30 percent of the civil service is composed of their kin and if a regime that does not include them in the next government takes over, they may lose these positions. Some ministries are almost entirely ran by them. So they are pushing Uhuru into the alliance such that even if he is not chosen as the flag bearer, he will be an ally of the chosen one. Ruto on the other hand is just trying to build a name on himself with an assumption that the Kalenjin community is all united under him. He is also simply trying to emulate his nemesis, Raila, only 10 years later. Remember Raila took on former president Moi, destroying Kanu and rewarding Kibaki with presidency.
Non of these people are really interested in good governance. If they were, they could have instructed the MPs they control to stand by bills that were prepared by experts that touch on important issues like the antigraft commission that they recently changed. They should have instructed them to pay their taxes instead of arm twisting the treasury to reallocate money meant for emergency services and hiring additional teachers to cover their taxes. They thus cannot run their own parties, non of them can run a government either. Right now, this alliance is trying to stay afloat, but I think they are already falling apart. In the next few days, we will begin seeing underground dealings that would see either some of them leaving or some their colleagues taking positions that would enable them regain their parliamentary seats that are under threat.
The main challenge that these group has is finding a viable ideology and identity other than portraying Raila as a bad person. All they have done is to identify the enemy, they need to come up with ideas that can sell to the common people. On other reason why I feel the G-7 alliance will fail is that if they choose either Ruto or Uhuru, the other leaders will feel used. There will be a feeling of a ping-pong or toss-up presidency whereby only kikuyu and kalenjins monopolize top leadership in this country. The electorate already knows this and if it turns out that this is the case, the other members of the G-7 alliance may turn their back on the alliance. I believe, the alliance already know this, and if it were to survive, the presidential candidate is not likely to be either Ruto or Uhuru. Kalanzo has a checkered past which may also not go well with the others. The rest stand a good chance of obtaining the ticket. The question is, who will be the most probable one?
If you observe current events within the larger PNU party, you can sense that people like Martha Karua do not want to give up their presidential ambitions because she understands that some kikuyus will not vote for non kikuyus. So she may get these votes and use them to bargain for a good position after the elections
Otherwise, kenyans should be ready for a tossup presidency in which the two major tribes play a never ending leadership ping-pong game while the others just speculate and watch election after election. I also bog at subsaharan.wordpress.com
Kalonzo on the other hand is playing safe. He wants to have something for himself come 2012. If he cannot be handed presidency, he wants to matter in the next government. On the other hand, he may want to repay Raila what he outrightly denied him in 07 so that he vindicates himself. All in all, he just wants to be a de-facto force in the next elections. ZIPAPA, has little value to the group as he does not have a substantial control of the coastal votes. Omingo Magara is even worse has he does not even have a mandate from his own people. He is despised by other Kisii leaders. Despite the fact that PNU got some votes in Kisii, its is widely known that those were stolen votes, Kisii is squarely an ODM region. Kiraitu Murungi, has a substantial value to the group. His Meru and Embu votes almost always go to the Kikuyu. However, there are clear divisions amongst his people right now as some of them feel like he is only favoring his constituency.
Uhuru on the other hand is just riding on pressure that his people are exerting on him. Kikuyus have enjoyed great prosperity in the last ten 8 years that Kibaki has been their leader, so they want the status quo to remain. They know that over 30 percent of the civil service is composed of their kin and if a regime that does not include them in the next government takes over, they may lose these positions. Some ministries are almost entirely ran by them. So they are pushing Uhuru into the alliance such that even if he is not chosen as the flag bearer, he will be an ally of the chosen one. Ruto on the other hand is just trying to build a name on himself with an assumption that the Kalenjin community is all united under him. He is also simply trying to emulate his nemesis, Raila, only 10 years later. Remember Raila took on former president Moi, destroying Kanu and rewarding Kibaki with presidency.
Non of these people are really interested in good governance. If they were, they could have instructed the MPs they control to stand by bills that were prepared by experts that touch on important issues like the antigraft commission that they recently changed. They should have instructed them to pay their taxes instead of arm twisting the treasury to reallocate money meant for emergency services and hiring additional teachers to cover their taxes. They thus cannot run their own parties, non of them can run a government either. Right now, this alliance is trying to stay afloat, but I think they are already falling apart. In the next few days, we will begin seeing underground dealings that would see either some of them leaving or some their colleagues taking positions that would enable them regain their parliamentary seats that are under threat.
The main challenge that these group has is finding a viable ideology and identity other than portraying Raila as a bad person. All they have done is to identify the enemy, they need to come up with ideas that can sell to the common people. On other reason why I feel the G-7 alliance will fail is that if they choose either Ruto or Uhuru, the other leaders will feel used. There will be a feeling of a ping-pong or toss-up presidency whereby only kikuyu and kalenjins monopolize top leadership in this country. The electorate already knows this and if it turns out that this is the case, the other members of the G-7 alliance may turn their back on the alliance. I believe, the alliance already know this, and if it were to survive, the presidential candidate is not likely to be either Ruto or Uhuru. Kalanzo has a checkered past which may also not go well with the others. The rest stand a good chance of obtaining the ticket. The question is, who will be the most probable one?
If you observe current events within the larger PNU party, you can sense that people like Martha Karua do not want to give up their presidential ambitions because she understands that some kikuyus will not vote for non kikuyus. So she may get these votes and use them to bargain for a good position after the elections
Otherwise, kenyans should be ready for a tossup presidency in which the two major tribes play a never ending leadership ping-pong game while the others just speculate and watch election after election. I also bog at subsaharan.wordpress.com