2012: ODM CAN NICK IT IN FIRST ROUND

[phil]

According to latest Infotrack Harris Poll released this afternoon in Nairobi, if elections were to be held today, there would be no clear winner and the country would go to a run-off since this would be the results:

First: Raila Odinga : 41%

Second: Uhuru Kenyatta : 19%

Third : Martha Karua : 11%

Fourth: Kalonzo Musyoka : 9%

Fifth : William Ruto : 7%

Sixth: Peter Kenneth: 5%

Seventh : Eugene Wamalwa : 2%

Eighth: Charity Ngilu : 1%

Ninth: George Saitoti : 1 %

Tenth: Musalia Mudavadi : 1%

For a party whose leader has been on the receiving end of political proganda, bad press and whose party has been infiltrated and split into factions for the last four years and someone who has hardly openly held a presidential campaign rally, this is remarkable achievement by Prime Minister Raila Odinga and ODM.

Credit must also go to Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua who manage to get the numbers they do nationally, although Kenyatta mostly owes his position to the perceived Kibaki heir apparent position while Martha remains a self-made achiever with great odds stacked against her. Peter Kenneth deserves mention too, while it seems obvious to me that the Kamba vote in Eastern and parts of Coast is singularly responsible for Kalonzo's fourth position given that he only rakes in a paltry 4,4,3 and 1 percent in vote rich regions of Nairobi, Rift Valley, Central, Nyanza and Western. Unless the G7 hands him the ticket, I see Kalonzo leading a revolt out of KKK and into the hands of a third force or most likely the ODM. A third force is irrelevant in a run-off.

William Ruto, on the Kshs. 6billion campaign trail for the last four years is a distant fifth and despite being branded the King of Rift Valley by the press and PNU MPs is still not the leading contender in his own Kalenjin counties, let alone Rift Valley province. The same applies to Eugene Wamalwa, the ardent campaigner of generational change who hardly gets a single percentage in some provinces but garners 14% in his home province of Western, second only to leader Raila Odinga in that region.

Looking at the provincial breakdown, this reveals that ODM needs to focus nationally in regions it scores little, Eastern and Central. G7 politics means if Kalonzo stands a loses in the first round, he is more inclined to rebuff people who denied him the G7 ticket and lead his troops to a different direction, most like that which will be opposing Uhuru Kenyatta in the runoff.

But perhaps more telling is Raila's proximity to the 50+1 passmark. It means that with an excellent campaign strategy and a transparent democratic nomination exercise, then ODM may as well hit 65% in the national polls if it cleans its house and arranges its campaign. This means ODM is within grasp of avoiding a run-off altogether especially if they can get the youth who constitute more than 50% of registered voters to buy its agenda. At 3 million strong, the diaspora will also provide a swing vote and this constituency will not be lost to presidential candidates.

And from where I sit, I can already see think tanks going back to the drawing board. Barring any deaths of the major candidates, this election is ODM's to lose.

[kamalet]

I see now that a poll that favours your man is quite acceptable and not useless speculation....!

How about a poll on people that have actually declared their intention as opposed to those they think will be candidates?

[tactician]

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

According to latest Infotrack Harris Poll released this afternoon in Nairobi, if elections were to be held today, there would be no clear winner and the country would go to a run-off since this would be the results:

First: Raila Odinga : 41%

Second: Uhuru Kenyatta : 19%

Third : Martha Karua : 11%

Fourth: Kalonzo Musyoka : 9%

Fifth : William Ruto : 7%

Sixth: Peter Kenneth: 5%

Seventh : Eugene Wamalwa : 2%

Eighth: Charity Ngilu : 1%

Ninth: George Saitoti : 1 %

Tenth: Musalia Mudavadi : 1%

For a party whose leader has been on the receiving end of political proganda, bad press and whose party has been infiltrated and split into factions for the last four years and someone who has hardly openly held a presidential campaign rally, this is remarkable achievement by Prime Minister Raila Odinga and ODM.

Credit must also go to Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua who manage to get the numbers they do nationally, although Kenyatta mostly owes his position to the perceived Kibaki heir apparent position while Martha remains a self-made achiever with great odds stacked against her. Peter Kenneth deserves mention too, while it seems obvious to me that the Kamba vote in Eastern and parts of Coast is singularly responsible for Kalonzo's fourth position given that he only rakes in a paltry 4,4,3 and 1 percent in vote rich regions of Nairobi, Rift Valley, Central, Nyanza and Western. Unless the G7 hands him the ticket, I see Kalonzo leading a revolt out of KKK and into the hands of a third force or most likely the ODM. A third force is irrelevant in a run-off.

William Ruto, on the Kshs. 6billion campaign trail for the last four years is a distant fifth and despite being branded the King of Rift Valley by the press and PNU MPs is still not the leading contender in his own Kalenjin counties, let alone Rift Valley province. The same applies to Eugene Wamalwa, the ardent campaigner of generational change who hardly gets a single percentage in some provinces but garners 14% in his home province of Western, second only to leader Raila Odinga in that region.

Looking at the provincial breakdown, this reveals that ODM needs to focus nationally in regions it scores little, Eastern and Central. G7 politics means if Kalonzo stands a loses in the first round, he is more inclined to rebuff people who denied him the G7 ticket and lead his troops to a different direction, most like that which will be opposing Uhuru Kenyatta in the runoff.

But perhaps more telling is Raila's proximity to the 50+1 passmark. It means that with an excellent campaign strategy and a transparent democratic nomination exercise, then ODM may as well hit 65% in the national polls if it cleans its house and arranges its campaign. This means ODM is within grasp of avoiding a run-off altogether especially if they can get the youth who constitute more than 50% of registered voters to buy its agenda. At 3 million strong, the diaspora will also provide a swing vote and this constituency will not be lost to presidential candidates.

And from where I sit, I can already see think tanks going back to the drawing board. Barring any deaths of the major candidates, this election is ODM's to lose.

By ODM's own count, Raila got 45% of the national vote in the 2007 elections (official eck results had him at 42%)

Are we saying that he has lost just 4% (almost within the margin of error?) since then even with the obvious political developments since then?

Not to mention that the 45% was achieved at a time of great excitement & euphoria?

[destiny]

Elections are still a long way ahead. One year in politics is like eternity. Can Raila maintain the lead and the momentum or will he flounder when it really matters? Any hidden traps along the treacherous road to state house? Will Agwambo hold the onslaught from his rivals who are busy placing banana peels along his way? What impact will the much talked about book by Miguna Miguna have? Can ODM really stand without Raila, or Agwambo equals ODM? What about the small issue of ICC? Let's not get too much over exited when we are light years away from the ballot day. Glad to see the only woman battling it out and having her fortunes rise. Kudos! By the way who funds these polls???

[adongo23456]

Oct 14, 2011 15:30:11 GMT 3 kamalet said:

I see now that a poll that favours your man is quite acceptable and not useless speculation....!

How about a poll on people that have actually declared their intention as opposed to those they think will be candidates?

Kamale,

I don't believe in Kenyan polls that much but they are like a broken thermometer that still flickers. But lets admit one thing. If this thing had Raila at 20% and mutha at 41% there would be a parade in town and you could very well be leading it. Any time your closest oponnent is half the field behind you have every reason to be confident you can win.

A Raila presidency is very likely today and tomorrow just as it was in 2007 before the thieves broke the store and damn near destroyed the nation. We will see.

Martha Karua's numbers are very impressive. I think Kenyans are beginning to take her very seriously. Good for them.

[b6k]

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

But perhaps more telling is Raila's proximity to the 50+1 passmark. It means that with an excellent campaign strategy and a transparent democratic nomination exercise, then ODM may as well hit 65% in the national polls if it cleans its house and arranges its campaign. This means ODM is within grasp of avoiding a run-off altogether especially if they can get the youth who constitute more than 50% of registered voters to buy its agenda. At 3 million strong, the diaspora will also provide a swing vote and this constituency will not be lost to presidential candidates.

ODM's achilles heel is actually at the nomination stage. In '07 the nomination was contested with a lot more passion than the general election itself. I doubt we will see a transparent & democratic nomination exercise from ODM because that will mean ditching quite a number of their big guns.

[adongo23456]

Oct 14, 2011 16:45:19 GMT 3 b6k said:

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

But perhaps more telling is Raila's proximity to the 50+1 passmark. It means that with an excellent campaign strategy and a transparent democratic nomination exercise, then ODM may as well hit 65% in the national polls if it cleans its house and arranges its campaign. This means ODM is within grasp of avoiding a run-off altogether especially if they can get the youth who constitute more than 50% of registered voters to buy its agenda. At 3 million strong, the diaspora will also provide a swing vote and this constituency will not be lost to presidential candidates.

ODM's achilles heel is actually at the nomination stage. In '07 the nomination was contested with a lot more passion than the general election itself. I doubt we will see a transparent & democratic nomination exercise from ODM because that will mean ditching quite a number of their big guns.

That is like Manchester City soccer team. You have too many good players and sometimes you don't know who to start and Tavez may loose his mind from time to time. It is a good problem to have if you are a good and smart manager. Does ODM have those kinds of management skills? We will see and they can hire me. hehehehehe. I could use the cash.

[mzee]

Apart from the fact that Raila Odinga might just win this thing hands down, it’s telling the William Ruto the king of the Rift is beaten by Raila in his own back yard. He scores 19% while Raila scores 40%. Even more interesting is that NO kikuyu is willing to give William Ruto any vote even after joining Uhurus G7/KKK alliance. This race seems to pit Uhuru against RAO. It really looks good for ODM. I’m not worried if he the match goes to overtime (second round), ODM is carrying the day.

What ODM needs is collaboration with partners such Charity Ngilu and Peter Kenneth. One cannot under estimate the two.

Another interesting thing is that the youth in all provinces trust Raila and are willing to elect him more than any other candidate. This a great sign of things to come.
The numbers look very good for RAO and ODM.

Adongo, consider yourself hired.

[phil]

Oct 14, 2011 15:30:11 GMT 3 kamalet said:

I see now that a poll that favours your man is quite acceptable and not useless speculation....!

How about a poll on people that have actually declared their intention as opposed to those they think will be candidates?

Its an understandle case of sour grapes from Kamale.

Why the need to be selective? Kenneth and Karua have some significant percentages in Central while Ruto, G-7 blue-eye boy actually comes out of Central with 0%!

How about that for electoral goodwill?

[phil]

Oct 14, 2011 16:45:19 GMT 3 b6k said:

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

But perhaps more telling is Raila's proximity to the 50+1 passmark. It means that with an excellent campaign strategy and a transparent democratic nomination exercise, then ODM may as well hit 65% in the national polls if it cleans its house and arranges its campaign. This means ODM is within grasp of avoiding a run-off altogether especially if they can get the youth who constitute more than 50% of registered voters to buy its agenda. At 3 million strong, the diaspora will also provide a swing vote and this constituency will not be lost to presidential candidates.

ODM's achilles heel is actually at the nomination stage. In '07 the nomination was contested with a lot more passion than the general election itself. I doubt we will see a transparent & democratic nomination exercise from ODM because that will mean ditching quite a number of their big guns.

b6k

Finally reality is dawning on some you folks. Its one thing to have mainstream press and blogs in your pockets, but its quite another to go to ground and feel the pulse of the common man. And the last ODM rally, during Musa Sirma's homecoming bear me witness. The apparent thawing of relations between Moi, Kibaki and Raila can only work in favour of the latter.

You aint seen nothing yet. ODM nominations will be conducted fairy and transparently. 2007 was the first time an opposition party in Kenya was conducting national nominations for all its elective positions. I thought it would have been better and much more fair to criticize those who did not conduct any nominations at all. Ama hiyo yao ni sawa tu? Why are you so partisan that you are blind to some of these transgressions but quite happy to report on the others?

Perhaps we need to ask the reason others are trailing and ODM is leading. Is it because they never bother with nominations at all? At least ODM tries despite all the infiltration.....

[b6k]

Adongo, interesting to note you addressed the "Man City" part of the problem but left out the direct nominations to cronies part that dogged the '07 exercise.

Phil, for as long as I can remember, RAO has led all the polls since 2008. We are still at least a year away to the 2012 elections & may have 3 or 4 more of these infotrack polls. So I fail to see what reality you now claim dawning on me. He's always been the man to beat.

Whilst you rejoice at the new figures, you're forgetting there are still a few more obstacles to navigate. First & foremost you have the ICC fallout to deal with once disgruntled voters are denied their choice thanks to? Secondly there will be the Miguna tell all book which I hear will be so scathing RAO may never recover from it. Finally, as you alluded to above, there is always the health factor. Why anyone would want to vote for a man well past his prime who has had brain surgery (after all we've been through with the Kibaki kitchen cabinet take-over when the mzee was down) is a mystery to me.

As Destiny said above, a year is a very long time in politics. We've seen RAO's poll figures ebb & flow. Let's see how it goes.

By the way, why would you use the word "nick" for an ODM victory in the first round? In British slang that is the equivalent of saying "steal". Is this a Freudian slip or are you forecasting yet another stolen election scenario for KE come 2012?

[jakaswanga]

There is a need to explain a certain descrepancy I detect here. In the thread by
NjugunaJohn which analyses the chances of the G7 based on ethnic arithmatic, and copied from the pentagon strategy of ODM last elections, Jukwaa minds have not revealed why it is a still-born baby or a dead end. The critical pretences of Jukwaa demands it.

Raila has always been the incumbent as far as opinion polls go, but this latest whooping lead should be tempered by the fact that the G7 have not yet announced their ticket. Once this is done, and they rally to it, I think the margin of nicking, either way, will be more apparent.

[adongo23456]

Oct 14, 2011 19:23:08 GMT 3 b6k said:

Adongo, interesting to note you addressed the "Man City" part of the problem but left out the direct nominations to cronies part that dogged the '07 exercise.

Phil, for as long as I can remember, RAO has led all the polls since 2008. We are still at least a year away to the 2012 elections & may have 3 or 4 more of these infotrack polls. So I fail to see what reality you now claim dawning on me. He's always been the man to beat.

Whilst you rejoice at the new figures, you're forgetting there are still a few more obstacles to navigate. First & foremost you have the ICC fallout to deal with once disgruntled voters are denied their choice thanks to? Secondly there will be the Miguna tell all book which I hear will be so scathing RAO may never recover from it. Finally, as you alluded to above, there is always the health factor. Why anyone would want to vote for a man well past his prime who has had brain surgery (after all we've been through with the Kibaki kitchen cabinet take-over when the mzee was down) is a mystery to me.

As Destiny said above, a year is a very long time in politics. We've seen RAO's poll figures ebb & flow. Let's see how it goes.

By the way, why would you use the word "nick" for an ODM victory in the first round? In British slang that is the equivalent of saying "steal". Is this a Freudian slip or are you forecasting yet another stolen election scenario for KE come 2012?

6bk

phil and adongo are actually two different people. One lives in Nairobi, Kenya the other one in Toronto Canada. May be you want to check who you are responding to. I don't know about Raila's health just as much as I don't know yours. Any of us could actually die way before he does.

As for Miguna's book, he told me he was writing one but I didn't know he had released advanced copies to folks like you. I am going to be very mad with him for not sending me one of the copies. Have a good read.

jakaswanga,

You must be the only one still talking about G7. Even those who are supposed to lead it are not bothering with it. That is a dead horse and I will never bother with it.

But polls come and go. The race has not even started yet, but if I was Raila I would feel good where I am. There is a lot of work to be done. If we are called upon to do it we will be ready like yesterday. The work never stops.

Have a good weekend fellas. adios till monday unless some crazy stuff crops up.

[b6k]

Adongo, that's why I addressed you in the first paragraph only & Phil in everything else after that. Seeing that your bi-focals didn't catch the segue, in future I will address you in your own separate box so that the lines can show you your side of the (Canadian) border. Sawa?

[sunday]

Oct 14, 2011 15:30:11 GMT 3 kamalet said:

I see now that a poll that favours your man is quite acceptable and not useless speculation....!

How about a poll on people that have actually declared their intention as opposed to those they think will be candidates?

Kamale is very right. ODM supporters are the most predictable bunch especially on opinion polls, though kamale himself is also predictable, everyone expected this type of response from him.

Wait until Steadman (the mzungu guy) releases their findings in the coming weeks, with ouru and Raila tied. ODM will go ballistic. Sometimes I tend to agree with Kalonzo when he proposed banning of opinion polls. However much we try to pretend, these polls might just be flawed (And o the worst end, they might even be tribal) Personally, I never care about them. Looks like even certain media houses like the DN have given them a wide berth.

[subsaharanite]

This poll does nothing but compare potential presidential aspirants. It does not take into account of special groupings coming up. Its highly unlikely that all the featured candidates will feature in the ballot paper. It is therefore erroneous as addition or removal of one or more people from that list alters the result. Infotrack could do a better job by carrying out a poll that looks at potential alliances. Perhaps, ODM Vs, KKK, ODM + Karua Vs G-7, ODM + Kalonzo vs, the rest of G-7, etc.

These will be a better poll than mere listing of potential presidential candidates. The election date is not even yet known. The only candidate known as per now is Raila. The other side is still unknown. It is highly unlikely that we can get an accurate poll unless we know who is on the other side. Infotrack is just selling itself. Do not believe them at this poll.

[moesha]

@subsahara

The polls must first determine what each possible presidential candidate brings to the table before any alliances are to be formed. All those people metioned have expressed an interest in the presidency.

At the end of the day it will not be ODM vs G7 or KKK, it will be Either RAO/Mudamba vs Uhuruto or Uhuru/Kalonzo or Kalonzo/Saitoto etc regardless of current party affilliations. Once alliances are formed, it will only matter what each candidate can deliver.

I am with Phil on this, the presidency as it appears today is Raila's to lose. Unless something really really extraordinary happens or Raila slips up big big time, he will remain the man to beat in 2012.

[stranger1in3]

Oct 14, 2011 23:53:15 GMT 3 @sunday said:

Oct 14, 2011 15:30:11 GMT 3 kamalet said:

I see now that a poll that favours your man is quite acceptable and not useless speculation....!

How about a poll on people that have actually declared their intention as opposed to those they think will be candidates?

Kamale is very right. ODM supporters are the most predictable bunch especially on opinion polls, though kamale himself is also predictable, everyone expected this type of response from him.

Wait until Steadman (the mzungu guy) releases their findings in the coming weeks, with ouru and Raila tied. ODM will go ballistic. Sometimes I tend to agree with Kalonzo when he proposed banning of opinion polls. However much we try to pretend, these polls might just be flawed (And o the worst end, they might even be tribal) Personally, I never care about them. Looks like even certain media houses like the DN have given them a wide berth.

[mwalimumkuu]

That, the Ambudho fellow at Infotrack is the biggest joke in town is not in dispute, not with such cooked up figures. The thinking here is to elevate Martha and Peter Ken so as to hoodwink central, then bring Ruto down in both central and RV to hoodwing RV. It is really a big sham if you asked me, and a big shame that fellows can choose to turn research on its head like this.

I have never carried out an opinion poll but my own look at the electoral map with my naked eyes tells me that Raila cannot muster more than 30% of the total vote. Infact since the Maasais started gravitating around Ruto and Saitoti, his numbers have dropped to around 26%. But since the fellows want to feel good, we can only wish them well and meet them kwa 'tepe' as Bifwoli Wakoli would say.

[phil]

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

First: Raila Odinga : 41%

Second: Uhuru Kenyatta : 19%

Third : Martha Karua : 11%

Fourth: Kalonzo Musyoka : 9%

Fifth : William Ruto : 7%

Sixth: Peter Kenneth: 5%

Seventh : Eugene Wamalwa : 2%

Eighth: Charity Ngilu : 1%

Ninth: George Saitoti : 1 %

Tenth: Musalia Mudavadi : 1%

This is politics and in politics we cannot afford to become sentimental with our friends. Mudavadi is a nice chap but in a fierce no-holds-barred political contest he fades in comparison to people like Ngilu, Karua or even Ruto.

I can predict that the 2012 contest (being a succession general election and with more elective positions) will be even more fiercely contested than any other in the history of Kenya. What does Mudavadi offer ODM apart from the fact he is a senior Luhya leader? Without Raila's prodding, can Mudavadi really win a fair nomination contest on his own against some of his political contemporaries?

Recalling how ODM was beaten in the Ikolomani by-elections, it comes as no surprise that a rookie like Eugene Wamalwa (of all people) is rated above Mudavadi in Western! Mudavadi happens to be ODM Deputy Party Leader as well as Deputy Prime Minister. Eugene is a mere back bench MP who was still in high school when Mudavadi was appointed minister in Moi's government. Can you imagine a situation where someone like Raphael Tuju being rated above Raila Odinga in Nyanza in opinion polls, and then Raila proceeding to demand for ODM presidential ticket? That is how rridiculous this Mudavadi fairy tale has become.

ODM's ambition is to be elected into power. ODM must be a party of all Kenyans and must be led by individuals who share that ambition and who can deliver the country to new heights.

Although Western delivers upwards of 68% of support to Odinga's impressive rating whilst only a marginal percentage in Central supports him, it appears to me that in the present constitutional dispensation, Martha Karua may just be a better running mate to Raila than ODMer Musalia Mudavadi.

In fact, I dare say Western support for ODM does not necessarily boil down to Musalia, and neither does Central luke warm support boil down to any individual.

ODM must bite the bullet in crafting a winning line-up. Gender parity as well as even distribution of the national cake must be seen to be done from the start and a Raila/Mudavadi Western alliance ticket hardly inspires any nationalistic confidence. Going by these latest polls, me thinks a Raila/Karua ticket is more like it.

My suggestion is that ODM needs to hook up with like-minded parties and create feasible alliances all over Kenya then proceed to have have a free and fair nomination exercise and whoever wins is given the ticket to represent the party.

[mangai]

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

This is politics and in politics we cannot afford to become sentimental with our friends. Mudavadi is a nice chap but in a fierce no-holds-barred political contest he fades in comparison to people like Ngilu, Karua or even Ruto.

I can predict that the 2012 contest (being a succession general election and with more elective positions) will be even more fiercely contested than any other in the history of Kenya. What does Mudavadi offer ODM apart from the fact he is a senior Luhya leader? Without Raila's prodding, can Mudavadi really win a fair nomination contest on his own against some of his political contemporaries?

Recalling how ODM was beaten in the Ikolomani by-elections, it comes as no surprise that a rookie like Eugene Wamalwa (of all people) is rated above Mudavadi in Western! Mudavadi happens to be ODM Deputy Party Leader as well as Deputy Prime Minister. Eugene is a mere back bench MP who was still in high school when Mudavadi was appointed minister in Moi's government. Can you imagine a situation where someone like Raphael Tuju being rated above Raila Odinga in Nyanza in opinion polls, and then Raila proceeding to demand for ODM presidential ticket? That is how rridiculous this Mudavadi fairy tale has become.

ODM's ambition is to be elected into power. ODM must be a party of all Kenyans and must be led by individuals who share that ambition and who can deliver the country to new heights.

Although Western delivers upwards of 68% of support to Odinga's impressive rating whilst only a marginal percentage in Central supports him, it appears to me that in the present constitutional dispensation, Martha Karua may just be a better running mate to Raila than ODMer Musalia Mudavadi.

In fact, I dare say Western support for ODM does not necessarily boil down to Musalia, and neither does Central luke warm support boil down to any individual.

ODM must bite the bullet in crafting a winning line-up. Gender parity as well as even distribution of the national cake must be seen to be done from the start and a Raila/Mudavadi Western alliance ticket hardly inspires any nationalistic confidence. Going by these latest polls, me thinks a Raila/Karua ticket is more like it.

My suggestion is that ODM needs to hook up with like-minded parties and create feasible alliances all over Kenya then proceed to have have a free and fair nomination exercise and whoever wins is given the ticket to represent the party.

Your analysis is skewed. The assumption for many is that Musalia is best suited to be Raila's running mate the same way some years back when Raila was lowly rated as a presidential contender but scored highly for prime minister's position because that is what people had come to associate him with. When they realised the PM position was never going to be created then they started associating him with the presidency hence his steady rise in subsequent opinion polls.

Your recommendation of Martha Karua as Raila's running mate is in the minority of 20%. 47% prefer Mudavadi as the running mate in this same opinion poll which you conveniently fail to mention. Karua will not add anything to Raila's stable especially if Uhuru is also in contention and Raila would have lost Western in the process.

Don't take Western for granted. You'll be in for a good surprise!

[nowayhaha]

Oct 15, 2011 7:29:04 GMT 3 mwalimumkuu said:

That, the Ambudho fellow at Infotrack is the biggest joke in town is not in dispute, not with such cooked up figures. The thinking here is to elevate Martha and Peter Ken so as to hoodwink central, then bring Ruto down in both central and RV to hoodwing RV. It is really a big sham if you asked me, and a big shame that fellows can choose to turn research on its head like this.

I have never carried out an opinion poll but my own look at the electoral map with my naked eyes tells me that Raila cannot muster more than 30% of the total vote. Infact since the Maasais started gravitating around Ruto and Saitoti, his numbers have dropped to around 26%. But since the fellows want to feel good, we can only wish them well and meet them kwa 'tepe' as Bifwoli Wakoli would say.

Exactly - Let them run a poll in central province today pitting Uhuru Vs Peter Muhuni Kenneth and Martha Wangari Karua - and lets see the results wont be like 94 % to Uhuru 4% To Martha and 2 % to Peter

[mzee]

Oct 15, 2011 8:30:22 GMT 3 phil said:

Oct 14, 2011 15:23:13 GMT 3 phil said:

First: Raila Odinga : 41%

Second: Uhuru Kenyatta : 19%

Third : Martha Karua : 11%

Fourth: Kalonzo Musyoka : 9%

Fifth : William Ruto : 7%

Sixth: Peter Kenneth: 5%

Seventh : Eugene Wamalwa : 2%

Eighth: Charity Ngilu : 1%

Ninth: George Saitoti : 1 %

Tenth: Musalia Mudavadi : 1%

This is politics and in politics we cannot afford to become sentimental with our friends. Mudavadi is a nice chap but in a fierce no-holds-barred political contest he fades in comparison to people like Ngilu, Karua or even Ruto.

I can predict that the 2012 contest (being a succession general election and with more elective positions) will be even more fiercely contested than any other in the history of Kenya. What does Mudavadi offer ODM apart from the fact he is a senior Luhya leader? Without Raila's prodding, can Mudavadi really win a fair nomination contest on his own against some of his political contemporaries?

Recalling how ODM was beaten in the Ikolomani by-elections, it comes as no surprise that a rookie like Eugene Wamalwa (of all people) is rated above Mudavadi in Western! Mudavadi happens to be ODM Deputy Party Leader as well as Deputy Prime Minister. Eugene is a mere back bench MP who was still in high school when Mudavadi was appointed minister in Moi's government. Can you imagine a situation where someone like Raphael Tuju being rated above Raila Odinga in Nyanza in opinion polls, and then Raila proceeding to demand for ODM presidential ticket? That is how rridiculous this Mudavadi fairy tale has become.

ODM's ambition is to be elected into power. ODM must be a party of all Kenyans and must be led by individuals who share that ambition and who can deliver the country to new heights.

Although Western delivers upwards of 68% of support to Odinga's impressive rating whilst only a marginal percentage in Central supports him, it appears to me that in the present constitutional dispensation, Martha Karua may just be a better running mate to Raila than ODMer Musalia Mudavadi.

In fact, I dare say Western support for ODM does not necessarily boil down to Musalia, and neither does Central luke warm support boil down to any individual.

ODM must bite the bullet in crafting a winning line-up. Gender parity as well as even distribution of the national cake must be seen to be done from the start and a Raila/Mudavadi Western alliance ticket hardly inspires any nationalistic confidence. Going by these latest polls, me thinks a Raila/Karua ticket is more like it.

My suggestion is that ODM needs to hook up with like-minded parties and create feasible alliances all over Kenya then proceed to have have a free and fair nomination exercise and whoever wins is given the ticket to represent the party.

Phil,
You have brought up the Mudavadi issue a couple of times here in Jukwaa and every time disagree with you. One reason being that Mudavadi was not just picked from nowhere and put in that position but was actually elected by the ODM delegates.

Apart from that, I think that ODMers should not count on people such as Karua who would rather see the party die. Let’s talk to her in case there is round two. For now she does not add much value.

The votes ODM would poteza in Western province by dropping Mudavadi would never be regained in Central province or anywhere else via Karua. Mudavadi is an ODM pillar inspite of his timid demeanor.

But if we want a person who fits the no holds barred contest you are talking about then lets go for William Ruto. The man is a tireless and reckless fighter. But perhaps that not the character we need this time round. We need tacticians, Ruto does not fit the bill.

I rather bet on Ngilu and Peter Kenneth for long term gains.

[jakaswanga]

Oct 14, 2011 21:03:14 GMT 3 adongo23456 said:

jakaswanga,
You must be the only one still talking about G7. Even those who are supposed to lead it are not bothering with it. That is a dead horse and I will never bother with it.

Adongo,
The point is, whether this behemoth is called the G7, or the pentagon, or the KKK alliance, like a mutant it will resurface in some form as the alternative mobilising force. Raila's ODM has rightly or wrongly usurped the banner or standard of progressivity, so the action and reaction will come in Kenyan measure. Working titles can change as drafts are improved, but the skeleton of the work is already authored.

NB: Is it not telling that ODM party parrots like our own Phil of Jukwaa are sticking the blade deep between the ribs of Mudavadi! and the calculation is based on ethnic summations! That is the G7 mentality par-exellence!
You can fool some flocks some time, but you can not fool the whole herd all the time!
Do they serve waragi in Canadian parties?

[tactician]

Oct 15, 2011 14:39:28 GMT 3 mzee said:

Oct 15, 2011 8:30:22 GMT 3 phil said:

This is politics and in politics we cannot afford to become sentimental with our friends. Mudavadi is a nice chap but in a fierce no-holds-barred political contest he fades in comparison to people like Ngilu, Karua or even Ruto.

I can predict that the 2012 contest (being a succession general election and with more elective positions) will be even more fiercely contested than any other in the history of Kenya. What does Mudavadi offer ODM apart from the fact he is a senior Luhya leader? Without Raila's prodding, can Mudavadi really win a fair nomination contest on his own against some of his political contemporaries?

Recalling how ODM was beaten in the Ikolomani by-elections, it comes as no surprise that a rookie like Eugene Wamalwa (of all people) is rated above Mudavadi in Western! Mudavadi happens to be ODM Deputy Party Leader as well as Deputy Prime Minister. Eugene is a mere back bench MP who was still in high school when Mudavadi was appointed minister in Moi's government. Can you imagine a situation where someone like Raphael Tuju being rated above Raila Odinga in Nyanza in opinion polls, and then Raila proceeding to demand for ODM presidential ticket? That is how rridiculous this Mudavadi fairy tale has become.

ODM's ambition is to be elected into power. ODM must be a party of all Kenyans and must be led by individuals who share that ambition and who can deliver the country to new heights.

Although Western delivers upwards of 68% of support to Odinga's impressive rating whilst only a marginal percentage in Central supports him, it appears to me that in the present constitutional dispensation, Martha Karua may just be a better running mate to Raila than ODMer Musalia Mudavadi.

In fact, I dare say Western support for ODM does not necessarily boil down to Musalia, and neither does Central luke warm support boil down to any individual.

ODM must bite the bullet in crafting a winning line-up. Gender parity as well as even distribution of the national cake must be seen to be done from the start and a Raila/Mudavadi Western alliance ticket hardly inspires any nationalistic confidence. Going by these latest polls, me thinks a Raila/Karua ticket is more like it.

My suggestion is that ODM needs to hook up with like-minded parties and create feasible alliances all over Kenya then proceed to have have a free and fair nomination exercise and whoever wins is given the ticket to represent the party.

Phil,
You have brought up the Mudavadi issue a couple of times here in Jukwaa and every time disagree with you. One reason being that Mudavadi was not just picked from nowhere and put in that position but was actually elected by the ODM delegates.

Apart from that, I think that ODMers should not count on people such as Karua who would rather see the party die. Let’s talk to her in case there is round two. For now she does not add much value.

The votes ODM would poteza in Western province by dropping Mudavadi would never be regained in Central province or anywhere else via Karua. Mudavadi is an ODM pillar inspite of his timid demeanor.

But if we want a person who fits the no holds barred contest you are talking about then lets go for William Ruto. The man is a tireless and reckless fighter. But perhaps that not the character we need this time round. We need tacticians, Ruto does not fit the bill.

I rather bet on Ngilu and Peter Kenneth for long term gains.

Raila will drop mudavadi. Here's why:

if it gets to 2nd round, as it is probable, mudavadi will add zero to raila. It will be raila vs a G7 candidate. How will mudavadi help raila when the luhya votes that mudavadi allegedly represents would still have voted for raila?
Its a bit like Uhuru choosing kalonzo as his running mate - yet if it came to an uhuru - raila duel in the 2nd round, most kamba votes would still go uhuru's way. It would be more strategic for him to choe running mate from another region.

My view: raila will drop mudavadi for a kalenjin running mate. Mudavadi will be placated with a direct ticket for governor of nairobi.