Post by Omwenga on Oct 26, 2011 19:07:13 GMT 3
In a feature article appearing in the Nairobi Star, titled "Will the Alternative Voices in Luo Politics End Odinga Dominance," its author, Samuel Otieno gives us a good doze of both history and current affairs related to efforts to curb or eliminate the influence of the Odinga family in Luo politics but he does not actually answer the question he poses but leave enough tale tells to suggest he believes the current breed of “rebels” may succeed in ending the Odinga domination of Luo politics.
I take the opposite view, namely, neither those peddling “alternative voices” nor anyone from Nyanza is going to succeed in stopping Raila from being elected president either working individually or in concert with others from elsewhere and there are several reasons for my coming to this conclusion.
Before addressing those reasons, it is important to point out that there is a stark difference as between day and night why people wanted to get rid of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and current efforts to stop his son Raila Amolo Odinga from ascending to the presidency.
In the case of Jaramogi, he was simply seen as both a threat to Kenyatta’s henchmen and even to Kenyatta himself but the two men had a bond and friendship Kenyatta himself would reveal in his angry outburst in Kisumu following the riots that explains why Jaramogi was not eliminated altogether.
Given Jaramogi could not be eliminated as others would down the road, Plan B was conceived and that entailed not ending but severely curbing Jaramogi’s influence in Nyanza by way of pitting the affable and equally flamboyant Tom Mboya against Jaramogi.
What Tom Mboya did not know or knew but thought he would outsmart the schemers, was that Plan C called for his elimination after curbing Jaramogi’s influence or otherwise reducing him to ordinary mortal status in Nyanza.
In contrast, those bent on ending the “Odinga dynasty” by stopping Raila from ascending to the presidency are not doing so because Raila is a threat to the president and neither are they doing so because he is a threat to them in the region; he is neither for in the first place, Raila successfully run and beat the president at the polls in 2007, if there was any elimination to be, it would have occurred then or before but no one, even those who hate or can’t stand Kibaki would ever even think of Kibaki going to that extent; steal elections, yes, but elimination of Raila, no; not just because the man was largely responsible for Kibaki's own ascendency to the presidency or because like the duo before them, the two men are friends but because that would simply be out of character and out of place, given that era of the politics of physical elimination is behind—or one would hope so.
The other reason why Raila is not a threat to Kibaki, is Kibaki is retiring from the scene and I would even venture to say here and confidently so that if one were to penetrate Kibaki’s heart and soul and inquire what his wish is as far as the succession politics go, he will find an honest answer that Kibaki would far much rather have Raila as our next president than even the boys from his neighborhood seeking the same office, if anything for the simple reason Raila is the most qualified of all the candidates seeking the office.
As for why Raila is not a threat to those from the Lake Region who wish to stop him from being elected as president, one must first assume or it must be the case that those individuals either singly or collectively have something going for them to bring them to parity with Raila such that it can be said there is something worth threatening other than Raila's mere presence on the scene.
A lion taking a nap in the park is no threat to no one unless awoken.
Now, can one make the case that the anti-Raila Luos can form an unholy alliance with others from outside the region to stop Raila?
Sure. But making a case is not the same thing as bringing it to fruition.
Indeed, if there is one thing those behind curbing Jaramogi’s influence and those now bent on stopping Raila from becoming president have in common, it is that both were and are driven by reasons that were antithetical to the unity and progress of our country, in the case of those intent on getting rid of Jaramogi and both antithetical and disingenuous in the case of those bent on stopping Raila because nobody can seriously argue that the PM who represents a constituency in Nairobi is also a Member of Parliament for all constituencies from the Lake Region such that all those, in fact, holding those positions and portfolios as MPs and/or ministers or assistant ministers are irrelevant in the representation of their respective constituent interests.
This is a fallacy that has been and continues to be propagated by these individuals but someone must call them out on it.
Which brings me to reasons why I do not think these individuals masquerading as an “alternative voice” will succeed in their efforts to stop Raila from being elected as president.
First, it is one thing hearing an alternative voice but what difference does it make if both are saying the same thing?
Put differently, what has Raila said or done that is antithetical to Luo interests? Citing the litany of imagined and unproven “corruption” can only persuade the unwary and most uninitiated but not anyone who bothers to know what the facts are.
This new breed of anti-Odingas claim they have “relaunched the battle” to "deliver the Luos" from what they call “individualistic politics,” arguing that the current trend of politics in Luo Nyanza “make the MPs owe loyalty to one person and not the community that elected them”, and hence “see no need for competitive development.”
There is more of this analysis on my blog omwenga.com/2011/10/26/the-anti-raila-luos-are-not-a-viable-alternative-to-raila-and-neither-is-anyone-else/
I take the opposite view, namely, neither those peddling “alternative voices” nor anyone from Nyanza is going to succeed in stopping Raila from being elected president either working individually or in concert with others from elsewhere and there are several reasons for my coming to this conclusion.
Before addressing those reasons, it is important to point out that there is a stark difference as between day and night why people wanted to get rid of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and current efforts to stop his son Raila Amolo Odinga from ascending to the presidency.
In the case of Jaramogi, he was simply seen as both a threat to Kenyatta’s henchmen and even to Kenyatta himself but the two men had a bond and friendship Kenyatta himself would reveal in his angry outburst in Kisumu following the riots that explains why Jaramogi was not eliminated altogether.
Given Jaramogi could not be eliminated as others would down the road, Plan B was conceived and that entailed not ending but severely curbing Jaramogi’s influence in Nyanza by way of pitting the affable and equally flamboyant Tom Mboya against Jaramogi.
What Tom Mboya did not know or knew but thought he would outsmart the schemers, was that Plan C called for his elimination after curbing Jaramogi’s influence or otherwise reducing him to ordinary mortal status in Nyanza.
In contrast, those bent on ending the “Odinga dynasty” by stopping Raila from ascending to the presidency are not doing so because Raila is a threat to the president and neither are they doing so because he is a threat to them in the region; he is neither for in the first place, Raila successfully run and beat the president at the polls in 2007, if there was any elimination to be, it would have occurred then or before but no one, even those who hate or can’t stand Kibaki would ever even think of Kibaki going to that extent; steal elections, yes, but elimination of Raila, no; not just because the man was largely responsible for Kibaki's own ascendency to the presidency or because like the duo before them, the two men are friends but because that would simply be out of character and out of place, given that era of the politics of physical elimination is behind—or one would hope so.
The other reason why Raila is not a threat to Kibaki, is Kibaki is retiring from the scene and I would even venture to say here and confidently so that if one were to penetrate Kibaki’s heart and soul and inquire what his wish is as far as the succession politics go, he will find an honest answer that Kibaki would far much rather have Raila as our next president than even the boys from his neighborhood seeking the same office, if anything for the simple reason Raila is the most qualified of all the candidates seeking the office.
As for why Raila is not a threat to those from the Lake Region who wish to stop him from being elected as president, one must first assume or it must be the case that those individuals either singly or collectively have something going for them to bring them to parity with Raila such that it can be said there is something worth threatening other than Raila's mere presence on the scene.
A lion taking a nap in the park is no threat to no one unless awoken.
Now, can one make the case that the anti-Raila Luos can form an unholy alliance with others from outside the region to stop Raila?
Sure. But making a case is not the same thing as bringing it to fruition.
Indeed, if there is one thing those behind curbing Jaramogi’s influence and those now bent on stopping Raila from becoming president have in common, it is that both were and are driven by reasons that were antithetical to the unity and progress of our country, in the case of those intent on getting rid of Jaramogi and both antithetical and disingenuous in the case of those bent on stopping Raila because nobody can seriously argue that the PM who represents a constituency in Nairobi is also a Member of Parliament for all constituencies from the Lake Region such that all those, in fact, holding those positions and portfolios as MPs and/or ministers or assistant ministers are irrelevant in the representation of their respective constituent interests.
This is a fallacy that has been and continues to be propagated by these individuals but someone must call them out on it.
Which brings me to reasons why I do not think these individuals masquerading as an “alternative voice” will succeed in their efforts to stop Raila from being elected as president.
First, it is one thing hearing an alternative voice but what difference does it make if both are saying the same thing?
Put differently, what has Raila said or done that is antithetical to Luo interests? Citing the litany of imagined and unproven “corruption” can only persuade the unwary and most uninitiated but not anyone who bothers to know what the facts are.
This new breed of anti-Odingas claim they have “relaunched the battle” to "deliver the Luos" from what they call “individualistic politics,” arguing that the current trend of politics in Luo Nyanza “make the MPs owe loyalty to one person and not the community that elected them”, and hence “see no need for competitive development.”
There is more of this analysis on my blog omwenga.com/2011/10/26/the-anti-raila-luos-are-not-a-viable-alternative-to-raila-and-neither-is-anyone-else/
