Post by Omwenga on Nov 7, 2011 13:48:35 GMT 3
No country has ever elected a traitor as its leader and neither has one ever succeeded to impose himself upon it. Once a thief, always a thief. With this in mind, I am very confident in saying the following: If Kalonzo Musyoka is the best candidate the so-called G7 put forth as their candidate against Raila as Prof. Makau argues in his article in the Daily Nation, then Raila should start measuring the drapes at Harambee House and State House.
Before I address the specific arguments raised by Makau Mutua in his piece, let me first put all this in perspective:
First, I am on record and have repeatedly said there is no one more singly responsible for PEV than Kalonzo Musyoka and I say this because, but for Kalonzo Musyoka’s rush to legitimize the hastily and illegally formed government of Kibaki in early 2008, we would have had a different outcome, which, in my view, would have altogether avoided the eruption of violence that nearly brought us into a civil war.
Put differently, had Kalonzo Musyoka been, or acted as a patriot and joined Raila in demanding that Kibaki cease in his efforts to power grab and allow the will of the people to be honored, no one other than a few hardcore Kibaki supporters, would have stomached the idea of defying a whole nation against a united front of demand for justice and democracy.
Instead, Kalonzo for strictly personal reasons as he himself confirmed in Wikileaks, chose to hurriedly accept the pre-arranged and paid for vice-presidency and setting in motion conditions that would erupt in the violence we saw.
Ocampo has argued in his case against Ruto that the latter hijacked the political situation in the country to engage in crimes against humanity.
Whether that is true or not, we can all agree no such alleged crimes would have occurred (a) had Raila been sworn as president or (b) had Kalonzo at least joined in demanding for a recount at worst, or a new election at best.
The shamelessness with which Kalonzo acted in 2008, the selfishness in both hurriedly accepting the vice-presidency and his conduct in the lead-up to the election that he admitted was calculated to put him first, his ODM colleagues second and country last; the recklessness with which Kalonzo hastily accepted the presidency knowing fully well the potential consequences as he should have; the fact that this abhorrent conduct by Kalonzo significantly contributed in setting in motion or ripening the conditions that brought us to the brink of a civil war clearly disqualify Kalonzo Musyoka from running as president, let alone being elected as one and even he would agree with that, were he to be intellectually honest.
Any objective observer would certainly agree with that assessment and conclusion.
Second, Kalonzo’s conduct in office since barreling his way to it has been another stain in his previously illustrious and promising career. I need not detail here why and how but let me just say, his consistent and persistent elbowing the Prime Minister on matters protocol, especially in public events with the president goes to support the conclusion he himself has confirmed and that is, for him, it’s all about he, him and himself and no country should ever have someone like that as her president.
We all know what happened with the waste of public funds we hardly have left from theft in Kalonzo’s so called “shuttle diplomacy,” which in reality were luxury holidays paid by the taxpayer to accomplish nothing as Kalonzo, a lawyer, should have told Kibaki there was no need for such efforts, were he a person who cared about the country.
He is not and has not been since he terribly miscalculated back in 2007 that president he must become the country be damned.
Third, by his own words and conduct during the referendum, Kalonzo gave us another meaning of the word “watermelon,” and that is, one who supported passage of the constitution in the day time but was opposed to it at night.
Nothing surprised anyone there, given what we know about Kalonzo: an unprincipled man who would say or do anything to get or remain in power.
While this is true of many politicians as well, few ever rise to the level of Kalonzo and none has ever single handedly contributed to the extent Kalonzo did in bringing our country to the brink of a civil war and, conversely, none has ever thrown away the opportunity to save a country for such selfish reasons as simply be appointed as VP in a government many would persuasively and demonstrably argue was illegally constituted and would have remained so but for the Accord agreement between Kibaki and Raila.
For these reasons alone, I submit Kalonzo Musyoka is unqualified to run for president, let alone be elected as one.
Professor Makau Mutua takes a different view but, as I demonstrate below, the good professor is dead wrong, again.
Mutua advises Raila to “recycle the piece of paper on which the polls are printed” because, among other reasons, “the polls put Mr Odinga at below the 50 per cent + 1 mark, which means he would face a run-off.”
I disagree.
Unlike Mutua, I would not advise Raila to wholly dismiss the recent polls that show him still leading the other presidential contenders.
I will, however, advise him to dismiss that aspect of the poll which was clearly intended to prop up Uhuru Kenyatta as the man to beat as between and among the so-called G7.
In No Presidential Winner This Year, Says Ipsos-Synovate and Standard Online, I pointed out there was some mischief in this latest poll by Ipsos-Synovate and in response and support of another blogger who shares the same view, I posted the flowing:
Putting aside being privy to what you have said about this latest poll having nothing to do with Raila but more about telling the so-called G7 Uhuru is their man, and just so some people don’t think we are payukaring in saying this, let me expound on this purely as a matter of analysis of the poll and its reporting; I have done the same thing in my blog No Presidential Winner This Year, Says Ipsos-Synovate and Standard Online.
First, notice the following three paragraphs taken verbatim from the news story in the exact sequence they occur:
None of the eight presidential candidates who were sampled during the opinion poll that targeted 2, 000 respondents was able to garner 50 per cent plus of votes cast.
The poll indicated that 24 per cent of respondents would vote for Uhuru. Eldoret North MP William Ruto would get 10 per cent of the votes.
Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will get nine per cent, Gichugu MP Martha Karua five percent and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa two per cent.
Who is missing in this part of the reporting?
Raila, of course. Do you know why? Because he is not the focus of the poll; the focus is on G7, which has been nicely broken down for you in the order of preference: UK/Ruto on upper deck, with UK preferred first; Musyoka/Karua on middle deck and Eugene at the lonely bottom.
In other words, among the G7, UK is the preferred man to beat at 24%, Ruto a distant second at 10% with the pollster basically saying the rest better stop dreaming.
Second, the paper really reveals what this is all about by declaring,
This [the poll results] must be good news for the G7 alliance that has been toying with the idea of either fielding a single presidential candidate against Raila or all the four presidential aspirants –Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wamalwa go to 2012 polls then force a run off.
In other words, the message to G7 is, you can beat Raila but only if you rally behind UK and nobody else.
Having delivered the message very clearly, and consistent with good reporting, the paper cautions in the end this is all good but ICC may doom the prospects.
Good reporting and analysis but the underlying message is the most important to pass along.
The question is, would the G7 bite?
I doubt.
I doubt only because Ruto would be laughed right out of RV, if he agrees as this poll suggests to be UK’s running mate.
You will have to read my blog A Conversation With DPM and Minister for Finance Uhuru Kenyatta to know what UK thinks about being second fiddle to Ruto.
The rest really do not matter in this equation as the pollster and Standard correctly conclude.
Karua and Kenneth do matter in other equations, of course, but not in G7.
Third, please note the use of “Uhuru closes in on Raila” in the story’s headline.
My point is, even though theoretically possible, the run-off scenario is not likely as the poll suggests but it’s a scenario that accomplishes the pollster’s intention as analyzed above therefore if I were Raila, I would not put that much stock on the poll’s accuracy as regards a run-off scenario and specifically point to the statistically significant “undecided” 15% to say we are less likely to be in a run-off scenario, if the elections were held today and even more less so come 2012.
I agree with Makau Mutua that anything could happen before the election that could impact the outcome beyond what is known today, which is actually true in nearly all elections except those where the incumbents have other plans other than what voters intend or wish to do.
In this context, Makau says that one thing that could happen, is Kalonzo Musyoka giving Raila a run for his money.
“I have concluded the man from Tseikuru is the one to watch,” the professor says, adding, “My crystal ball tells me the election — take this to the bank — will be a two-horse race between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka.”
I say please don’t take this check from the professor to any bank.
It’s a bad check and will be dishonored on the spot.
Kalonzo will go down to Raila in a landslide were G7 or whatever tribal outfit Raila’s opponents come up with for the reasons I discuss above and more, if the outfit, in fact, nominates him and that is a big “if.”
For more of this analysis, go to omwenga.com/2011/11/06/prof-makau-mutua-is-wrong-again-musyoka-cannot-beat-raila-in-the-imaginary-match-up-with-him/
Peace, Love and Unity
Omwenga
Before I address the specific arguments raised by Makau Mutua in his piece, let me first put all this in perspective:
First, I am on record and have repeatedly said there is no one more singly responsible for PEV than Kalonzo Musyoka and I say this because, but for Kalonzo Musyoka’s rush to legitimize the hastily and illegally formed government of Kibaki in early 2008, we would have had a different outcome, which, in my view, would have altogether avoided the eruption of violence that nearly brought us into a civil war.
Put differently, had Kalonzo Musyoka been, or acted as a patriot and joined Raila in demanding that Kibaki cease in his efforts to power grab and allow the will of the people to be honored, no one other than a few hardcore Kibaki supporters, would have stomached the idea of defying a whole nation against a united front of demand for justice and democracy.
Instead, Kalonzo for strictly personal reasons as he himself confirmed in Wikileaks, chose to hurriedly accept the pre-arranged and paid for vice-presidency and setting in motion conditions that would erupt in the violence we saw.
Ocampo has argued in his case against Ruto that the latter hijacked the political situation in the country to engage in crimes against humanity.
Whether that is true or not, we can all agree no such alleged crimes would have occurred (a) had Raila been sworn as president or (b) had Kalonzo at least joined in demanding for a recount at worst, or a new election at best.
The shamelessness with which Kalonzo acted in 2008, the selfishness in both hurriedly accepting the vice-presidency and his conduct in the lead-up to the election that he admitted was calculated to put him first, his ODM colleagues second and country last; the recklessness with which Kalonzo hastily accepted the presidency knowing fully well the potential consequences as he should have; the fact that this abhorrent conduct by Kalonzo significantly contributed in setting in motion or ripening the conditions that brought us to the brink of a civil war clearly disqualify Kalonzo Musyoka from running as president, let alone being elected as one and even he would agree with that, were he to be intellectually honest.
Any objective observer would certainly agree with that assessment and conclusion.
Second, Kalonzo’s conduct in office since barreling his way to it has been another stain in his previously illustrious and promising career. I need not detail here why and how but let me just say, his consistent and persistent elbowing the Prime Minister on matters protocol, especially in public events with the president goes to support the conclusion he himself has confirmed and that is, for him, it’s all about he, him and himself and no country should ever have someone like that as her president.
We all know what happened with the waste of public funds we hardly have left from theft in Kalonzo’s so called “shuttle diplomacy,” which in reality were luxury holidays paid by the taxpayer to accomplish nothing as Kalonzo, a lawyer, should have told Kibaki there was no need for such efforts, were he a person who cared about the country.
He is not and has not been since he terribly miscalculated back in 2007 that president he must become the country be damned.
Third, by his own words and conduct during the referendum, Kalonzo gave us another meaning of the word “watermelon,” and that is, one who supported passage of the constitution in the day time but was opposed to it at night.
Nothing surprised anyone there, given what we know about Kalonzo: an unprincipled man who would say or do anything to get or remain in power.
While this is true of many politicians as well, few ever rise to the level of Kalonzo and none has ever single handedly contributed to the extent Kalonzo did in bringing our country to the brink of a civil war and, conversely, none has ever thrown away the opportunity to save a country for such selfish reasons as simply be appointed as VP in a government many would persuasively and demonstrably argue was illegally constituted and would have remained so but for the Accord agreement between Kibaki and Raila.
For these reasons alone, I submit Kalonzo Musyoka is unqualified to run for president, let alone be elected as one.
Professor Makau Mutua takes a different view but, as I demonstrate below, the good professor is dead wrong, again.
Mutua advises Raila to “recycle the piece of paper on which the polls are printed” because, among other reasons, “the polls put Mr Odinga at below the 50 per cent + 1 mark, which means he would face a run-off.”
I disagree.
Unlike Mutua, I would not advise Raila to wholly dismiss the recent polls that show him still leading the other presidential contenders.
I will, however, advise him to dismiss that aspect of the poll which was clearly intended to prop up Uhuru Kenyatta as the man to beat as between and among the so-called G7.
In No Presidential Winner This Year, Says Ipsos-Synovate and Standard Online, I pointed out there was some mischief in this latest poll by Ipsos-Synovate and in response and support of another blogger who shares the same view, I posted the flowing:
Putting aside being privy to what you have said about this latest poll having nothing to do with Raila but more about telling the so-called G7 Uhuru is their man, and just so some people don’t think we are payukaring in saying this, let me expound on this purely as a matter of analysis of the poll and its reporting; I have done the same thing in my blog No Presidential Winner This Year, Says Ipsos-Synovate and Standard Online.
First, notice the following three paragraphs taken verbatim from the news story in the exact sequence they occur:
None of the eight presidential candidates who were sampled during the opinion poll that targeted 2, 000 respondents was able to garner 50 per cent plus of votes cast.
The poll indicated that 24 per cent of respondents would vote for Uhuru. Eldoret North MP William Ruto would get 10 per cent of the votes.
Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will get nine per cent, Gichugu MP Martha Karua five percent and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa two per cent.
Who is missing in this part of the reporting?
Raila, of course. Do you know why? Because he is not the focus of the poll; the focus is on G7, which has been nicely broken down for you in the order of preference: UK/Ruto on upper deck, with UK preferred first; Musyoka/Karua on middle deck and Eugene at the lonely bottom.
In other words, among the G7, UK is the preferred man to beat at 24%, Ruto a distant second at 10% with the pollster basically saying the rest better stop dreaming.
Second, the paper really reveals what this is all about by declaring,
This [the poll results] must be good news for the G7 alliance that has been toying with the idea of either fielding a single presidential candidate against Raila or all the four presidential aspirants –Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wamalwa go to 2012 polls then force a run off.
In other words, the message to G7 is, you can beat Raila but only if you rally behind UK and nobody else.
Having delivered the message very clearly, and consistent with good reporting, the paper cautions in the end this is all good but ICC may doom the prospects.
Good reporting and analysis but the underlying message is the most important to pass along.
The question is, would the G7 bite?
I doubt.
I doubt only because Ruto would be laughed right out of RV, if he agrees as this poll suggests to be UK’s running mate.
You will have to read my blog A Conversation With DPM and Minister for Finance Uhuru Kenyatta to know what UK thinks about being second fiddle to Ruto.
The rest really do not matter in this equation as the pollster and Standard correctly conclude.
Karua and Kenneth do matter in other equations, of course, but not in G7.
Third, please note the use of “Uhuru closes in on Raila” in the story’s headline.
My point is, even though theoretically possible, the run-off scenario is not likely as the poll suggests but it’s a scenario that accomplishes the pollster’s intention as analyzed above therefore if I were Raila, I would not put that much stock on the poll’s accuracy as regards a run-off scenario and specifically point to the statistically significant “undecided” 15% to say we are less likely to be in a run-off scenario, if the elections were held today and even more less so come 2012.
I agree with Makau Mutua that anything could happen before the election that could impact the outcome beyond what is known today, which is actually true in nearly all elections except those where the incumbents have other plans other than what voters intend or wish to do.
In this context, Makau says that one thing that could happen, is Kalonzo Musyoka giving Raila a run for his money.
“I have concluded the man from Tseikuru is the one to watch,” the professor says, adding, “My crystal ball tells me the election — take this to the bank — will be a two-horse race between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka.”
I say please don’t take this check from the professor to any bank.
It’s a bad check and will be dishonored on the spot.
Kalonzo will go down to Raila in a landslide were G7 or whatever tribal outfit Raila’s opponents come up with for the reasons I discuss above and more, if the outfit, in fact, nominates him and that is a big “if.”
For more of this analysis, go to omwenga.com/2011/11/06/prof-makau-mutua-is-wrong-again-musyoka-cannot-beat-raila-in-the-imaginary-match-up-with-him/
Peace, Love and Unity
Omwenga
