|
|
Post by Onyango Oloo on Feb 27, 2007 13:01:39 GMT 3
|
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Feb 27, 2007 15:37:19 GMT 3
Oloo, I am honestly surprised that even when you are on the ground at home you still cannot read the politics of this country right!!! it was forgiveable when you were so far away...but in Nairobi and you are talking about a 'third force' led by Ngilu and Kombo??? Surely you should have known by now the charade being played out by these politicians is intended as a fishing expedition for the all but certain ODM fall out where these parties will troop back to the original NARC? NARC is the party Kibaki will be the presidential candidate of! I think you need to badilisha your political analysts! I could suggest some friends of mine that include the guy who was panel beating my wife's small ramshackle for political insight! Kamale, PS. I am forced to sparingly write in Jukwaa for the mortal fear of being called God once I reach the magical 500 posts, surely you can show some sensitivity to us Christians and change the title of that mark! As I am certain if you reach 750 posts you will not be called Allah or Buddha for a 1000 posts, this should be something easy to change for our comfort. Too much to ask bwana Oloo or will TKK soften you up   |
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Feb 27, 2007 21:36:08 GMT 3
OO
I can almost feel that interview with Abdilatif. Obviously you recorded it. I like Comrade Abdalla. His calm demeanor and the ruthless ideological precision that permeates through his work is a breath of fresh air.
This prezo thing is funny. I agree with Kamale that Kibaki will resort back to Narc not by choice but because Narc Kenya is a flop. They tried to clothe the D.P into something new and it is blowing in their faces rather badly. They can't sell Narc Kenya in Western, even Kituyi is about to give up. In Rift Valley, the heart and soul of the nation geographically, Narc K is dead as a dodo.
I mean how many rallies can Narc K hold in Imenti?
Now even the Narc K die hards like Kivutha Kibwana are seeing the light. The Narc project is dead. Now is plan B. Revive Narc of old, get Kombo and Ngilu involved and wait for ODM dropouts and tell them they are just rejoining their old Narc and bingo you have a winning team!!!. No so fast amigo. Here are the problems.
Already there are too many cockerels to fit even the Narc Kenya hen house. The Saitoti brash off with Kituyi was not just a clash of personalities. It is called jostling for positions. Right now being a key leader of the Narc K party was seen as being next on line. Kituyi wants in, otherwise he has nothing to sell to his constituency(if he has any), Saitoti wants in, Kirwa is pissed on the sidelines and Mungatana and Mwakerere are going at it in the coast to at least find something to vend to the coastal communities.
Now you bring in Kombo who thinks he is the president in waiting and Ngilu with her tantrums and I think you have a mad house ready to burn itself to ashes. That is before you bring in Kalonzo after he looses his bid to lead the ODM. And then you add Biwott, the Moi clan and their Kanu B team. That is the Mchusi mix Narc is looking at. Too salty, a little bit sour taste, not much meat and too many bones, forgetting the ones in the closet. All these big fellas with huge egos will be gunning for prominent positions not just in the party but also in the government to be. And we thought it was the ODM who needed the new constitution to divide positions of leadership. What is the new Narc going to need? Two countries? Don’t forget Narc ina wenyewe.
If you think Ngilu is going to forfeit her position as the Narc Chair, think again. What does this mean? It means she is going to demand to be the V.P candidate. Can Kibaki afford that? The answer is a big NO. Now that is just the beginning. Figure out the rest.
If you think they are having problems in the ODM keeping the lead over their internal problems, wait till they revive Narc III.
In fact the one good thing for the ODM is that they have gone through some of the most difficult stages in building a coalition. They overcame the desperate moves by Moi and Kibaki to stop LDP and Kanu coming together.
The contenders have a good rapport despite the occasional outbursts. In fact a lot of the outbursts are from nonentities like the Maanzo fella with zero grassroot support anywhere in the country. The ODM also has a successful past to keep reminding them where the real power is.
The biggest advantage for the ODM is their base support is solid and my sense is that the few leaders who are going to bolt and be lured with big bucks from Narc may be shocked to realize that a good part of their followers may stay with ODM. That is what happened with Narc. When Mudavadi abandoned the Rainbow team it was supposed to be a major blow that would tilt the balance in Uhuru's favour. Instead Mudavadi lost even his own seat. So the ODM defectors are going to be extremely careful because the ODM has been building his support base for quite some time.
Narc has only two things. They have Kibaki to line behind and they have the big cash. Kibaki obviously has the advantage of incumbency but he is a lousy campaigner. They also seem to think all they have to do is publish the list of roads they have constructed with our money of course, the boreholes and the mythical 5.8% economic growth rate and wananchi will just line up for more of the same. It is going to be much tougher than that.
Then the money which is already raining from the skies. Money has its own problems. I remember as a young university student campaigning against Odongo Omamo Kaliech in Bondo. Omamo had some serious loads of cash and our guy, Ougo Olith had nothing.
On any evening Omamo would pour cash into the hands of his known moneybags for distribution. We would send our guys to get as much of it as they could. Most moneybags only distribute a portion of what they get. They know they are going to need the money after their guy loses the election. Often we would spread romours that the moneybag got three times what he/she actually got. In no time an enraged community would be ready to lynch the moneybag who would be banished from sight. the result was often that more people voted against the moneybag's candidate just to punish the moneybags. My point here is that money doesn't buy everything. And by he way we beat Kaliech rather badly in Bondo.
A few things about the ODM. I hold the odd view that the turmoil in ODM right now is good for them. This is not just because I support the ODM. It is because I am a realist. I am also an optimist.
First of, I think the media version(s) of the splits are slightly exaggerated. In fact if we were to believe the media "analysts" the ODM should have been split a long time ago. Kanu would now be its own party etc.
Secondly, the splits which are primarily between Raila's team and Kalonzo's team are more pronounced among the regular sycophants who want their man in at all costs. Raila and Kalonzo as persons are fairly amicable and one gets a feeling when push comes to shove and fate of their Movement is in their hands they will sort things out.
The thing that worries many Kenyans is simple: If we need so many teams, so many consultations, so many meetings to keep Raila and Kalonzo working together before either of them has won any power, what will it take to keep them working together after one of them is elected president and has real power? Are we going to need an army to keep them form tearing each other up? This is the thing ODM should worry about. Kenyans are foreseeing a situation where as soon as either of these guys gets in, they will call in their sycophants like Kibaki did and close the the other team out of State House and we will be back to the Narc drama of 2003 for another five years. Nobody wants to revisit that nightmare and if Kenyans are convinced that is where they are heading, I think they would rather have Kibaki.
My sense is that the ODM has too many smart folks to let things go that far. At this point my feeling is that the Kalonzo team are at crossroads. If they want to quit ODM, the time to do so is now. If they are in the ODM to stay they might want to slow down on the theatrics. The hoopla about the Internet hack on Kalonzo's website which turned out to just a creation of some fraudsters, possibly a government agent, was completely uncalled for. If you want to work online, you are going to be hacked and worse is coming. Raila's people would be dump to hack Kalonzo's website and put stuff favourable to them. It doesn't take a lot to figure that out.
The real trouble for Kalonzo is not in ODM. He is part of the ODM and should chill out. If he is nominated great, if he is not support the candidate and his time will come pretty soon from where I sit. Actually someone like Raila who is one of the more prominent candidates and the older one of the team should seriously consider offering himslef as a one time transitional president. He would be perfect for the job and I am sure he will remember that promise come the 2012 elections.
For those waiting for Kalonzo to join Narc, they should ask themselves one question. If Kalonzo quits ODM because he is not the presidential candidate, what is Narc going to offer him? The V.P? That would send all the other narcies real nuts. To see Kalonzo, an outsider, come and be offered V.P, they will all bolt to ODM. The drama jameni.
The only way Narc and Kalonzo wins in that case is if Kalonzo becomes the Narc presidential candidate and gets the support of all narcies. That would only happen if Kibaki has a massive heart attack tommorrow and I wouldn't wish that on any human being. It looks to me like Kalonzo and ODM are tied at the hip.
The other thing the ODM has to look into is the potential of someone like Mudavadi. I for one likes Mudavadi's chances. He would have a lock on the Western Province vote. That is huge. If Raila and Ruto support him to the hilt Mudavadi would get off the gates witha formidable head start that Kibaki would find very had to manage. Mudavadi is also an amicable person. He gets along with people pretty well. I have always been at different ends of the table with Mudavadi since our days at College, but he is the kind of person I think we can talk to and would listen. So there you go ODM.
Otherwise OO I think the real deal for us is finally bringing this progressive movement you have talked about for many years to life. These things are born from real tangible work on the ground and I think a lot has been done in the last year or so. Let's continue in that direction and hopefully something comes up sooner than later.
Adongo
|
|
|
|
Post by politicalmaniac on Feb 28, 2007 0:13:46 GMT 3
OO I enjoyed your essay as usual. R already has Nyanza, most of Nairobi, and if there is a nomination battle since there will be no outright winner (>50%), the loosing candidates with narrow bases (Mudavadi/Balala) and their supporters will then shift. I predict most of western will go R's way and Coast will be split 50/50 plus or minus 10% and distributed to R and KM. Then the next round of elections will be held With Ruto then out in the next round most of his guys will go R's way and he - R, will then nab the nomination. Thats the scenario I think will play out if they go that route. If it is boardroom consensus R still wins, he has Mudavadi, and Ruto both of whom he has nartured. But Balala has his own problems huko Mvita. I am told this guy Taib will nyang'anya the seat from Balala during ODM nominations and then Balala gets nominated? Any comments? And please two folks I dont want near me are Ngilu and Kombo. What wishy washy unpredictable idiots they are AO I dont see why you are so pessimistic on R's chances. Your post doesnt give him the props he deserves!  R would make an excellent transition prez and he will get things done in a hurry esp the overhaul of the constitution. He can get reforms neccessary for corruption to be held in check and being the magnanimous person he is, tribalism will be kept out of the front burners. I hope to meet with R shortly and look him in the eye and ask him how he feels about his chances. Hopefully I wont get spin! |
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Feb 28, 2007 1:16:16 GMT 3
PManiac
Raila is the only one in the team with a history of unrelenting patriotism. He has sacrificed for his country in a way very few people have. His organisational abilities and skills are legendary. He is the man I would be extremely excited to see in the race because we will actually be voting for real change not just possibilities. If he wins the nomination we will be there with everything we got.
My point here was to say the ODM has more options than just Raila and Kalonzo or Ruto. Raila as a president or a P.M will be a blessing to the country and people know his work ethic is second to none.
The real purpose of my piece is to tell ODM that whoever they nomimate there is real work ahead. Secondly, they have to get away from promising us individual battles between say Kalonzo and Kibaki or Raila and Kibaki.
If they want to win it will have to be the ODM against Kibaki. Nobody in the ODM team can beat Kibaki on their own. That is the message I am sending. I have no problem with R. History will be very kind to that man. He is a warrior and a statesman. There are few people like that.
Adongo.
|
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Feb 28, 2007 1:56:58 GMT 3
|
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Feb 28, 2007 2:20:47 GMT 3
|
|
|
|
Post by Onyango Oloo on Feb 28, 2007 6:28:11 GMT 3
Oloo,
I am honestly surprised that even when you are on the ground at home you still cannot read the politics of this country right!!! it was forgiveable when you were so far away...but in Nairobi and you are talking about a 'third force' led by Ngilu and Kombo???
Surely you should have known by now the charade being played out by these politicians is intended as a fishing expedition for the all but certain ODM fall out where these parties will troop back to the original NARC?
NARC is the party Kibaki will be the presidential candidate of!
I think you need to badilisha your political analysts! I could suggest some friends of mine that include the guy who was panel beating my wife's small ramshackle for political insight!
Kamale,
PS. I am forced to sparingly write in Jukwaa for the mortal fear of being called God once I reach the magical 500 posts, surely you can show some sensitivity to us Christians and change the title of that mark! As I am certain if you reach 750 posts you will not be called Allah or Buddha for a 1000 posts, this should be something easy to change for our comfort. Too much to ask bwana Oloo or will TKK soften you up Kamale: Greetings! To start with your last point first. I honestly did NOT know that it is possible for someone to graduate to godly status on Jukwaa. I will look into it. I am not sure if you read the SAME essay that I wrote and posted here. My views on Kombo and Ngilu have been posted and reposted on this site several times underscoring their chicanery and opportunism and I am more than aware of the game plan to troop back to the original NARC. But I am foreseeing what I said in the essay and I am sticking to that. I will reserve any further comments lest I write another essay in the course of responding further. Onyango Oloo Nairobi, Kenya |
|
|
|
Post by Onyango Oloo on Feb 28, 2007 6:37:28 GMT 3
Greetings. Thanks for your feedback which I enjoyed reading.
Believe it or not, I did NOT record the Abdilatif Abdalla interview.
That was just instant replay from my mental minirecorder....
Onyango Oloo
Nairobi, Kenya
|
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Mar 1, 2007 12:54:53 GMT 3
OO,
Thanks for agreeing to look into that God thing.!!
AO,
Good analysis, but me thinks it is flawed.
Let us start with Narc Kenya. This party was primarily started to tame Ngilu and Kombo after the post-referendum shenanigans. Several people wanted a break from the blackmailing that was led by Kombo and Ngilu on Kibaki when the fellow was in trouble. The grouping in itself wanted to come out unlinked to any of the NARC affiliates hence the likes of Ford-K, DP and NPK were left out in the cold. There was realisation that the likes of Ngilu even with their tantrums had lost the support of their home districts to Kalonzo. In Western Kenya, Kombo no longer held sway in the control of his community. Good political thinking meant that new alliances were needed to first counter ODM rush against Kibaki.
With Ngilu and Kombo sufficiently neutered, it is now time for Narc-Kenya to re-join the fold but as the senior partner in the new coalition.
As for ODM, I think it is inevitable that several leading lights will be dumping the party leaving it as a shell of LDP. I expect that Uhuru, Kalonzo and highly likely Ruto will be decamping from ODM after their nomination fall out. There are people in the "ODM Presidential Candidate" race who know they are not electable but must make as much noise as possible to remain credible. I have in mind Ruto and Mudavadi. Uhuru will be the Kanu candidate come December 2007 whilst Ruto will be doing the bidding with whoever wins the election. Mudavadi's only hope is if Raila actually agrees to have him as presidential candidate, otherwise we have Jirongo nearly locking the luhyia vote for deals.
Unfortunately, like all other Kenyans, we tend to spend so much time analysing these politicians and even suggesting how good they will be for and to kenya. Nothing could be far from the truth. By seeking these people we are only perpetuating the same problems we whine about. There is absolutely no difference between Kibaki and Raila or even Moi. All three are tribalists and you can easily tell by the crown they keep. Moi used state apparatus to entrench his dictatorship, Raila it is feared would rule by mob dictatorship. And we have seen examples of how some hoodlums behave if you disagree with him.
If you asked me, the solution to the woes of this country is the present crop of leaders. We have one lot on its way out like Kibaki, Awori, Moi and Michuki. Then we have another lot waiting in the wings like Raila, Saitoti and Kalonzo. The problem with this lot is that they have served in one or other regime hence cannot give us anything new.
Someone suggested that the better thing to do (and I am not campaigning here!!!) is to let Kibaki go for another term, by which time the younger Kenyans will have been tired with this old generation. In the process the next lot in line of Raila, Saitoti etc will be going into their seventies and kenyans can reject them on age grounds, paving the way for a younger person not tainted by these wazees!! this would mean that by 2012, a 45 year old who cannot be elected on account of youth would be electable at 50 years in 2012 and he would be probably untainted!
If we lose this oportunity, the next one will be taken in 2017 by people who will recycle the problems we whine about today.....ama aje?
|
|
|
|
Post by politicalmaniac on Mar 1, 2007 21:32:43 GMT 3
Kamale
Thanks for the comedic relief
Jirongo? holding sway in western? Is the Nairobi air full of nitrous oxide these days?
This is what I know:
KM wont go anywhere. He may whine, dish out temper tantrums, have his aides and cronies roll over the floor shouting and gnashing teeth, but KM WILL NOT BE THE ODM NOMINEE.
Then what?
I know R has the best chance of being the ODM nominee.
So a miffed KM will do what? Cross to NARC-Kikiyu (as Ngunyi rightly called it?) and play second fiddle to the MKM barrons - wenye party? Breath life in ROAP that shell of a party? KMs options are actually very limited. If KANU fractures from LDP, then Ruto/Uhuru naturally have that wing while R remains with LDP. Where does THAT LEAVE KM?
KM I think (not sure) KNOWS he aint the nominee. He wants to secure the deputy post from Ruto/Mudavadi. He wants his allies in the deal too at some level.
ODM is going to be intact AFTER the nomination.
Thats my bet
And come Dec they give the sloppy baboon a thumpin'!
|
|
|
|
Post by politicalmaniac on Mar 1, 2007 23:21:26 GMT 3
Just got off the phone with a 'political strategist' in DC.
He tells me R isnt worried at all about KM's antics. Let me just leave it @ that.
|
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Mar 2, 2007 20:15:16 GMT 3
Kamale
I can see you are still sitting on the roadside waiting for the LDP to come back from ODM. Good for you. If I was you I would carry lunch with me. It is going to be a long lonely wait, trust me.
Now lets get to business. I agree with you that Narc K, the little D.P outfit that has refused to grow was a party born out of the frustration of the Kibakites with Ngilu particularly refusing to let them take the reins on Narc. Kina Karua, Kibwana, Kianjuri, Mungatana with mama Bling Bling as the big roller thought they could pop up their own Narc get a few sycophants like Tuju, Kituyi etc and then mesmerize the populace with cash and pomp and exchange flowers till Kingdom come. Didn't work. They came in smoking with the by-elections where massive and crude rigging and abuse of public resources gave them a few seats but really woke the nation up to the horrors that Kibaki was capable of inflicting on the nation.
People woke up and took notice and the ODM got its act together and has not looked back since, not withstanding the hiccups that thrill you guys to death.
The idea of Narc Kenya rejoining Narc from a position of strength to build a new alliance is nonsense. Narc K is coming back with its tail between the legs not as a force to unite but as a very divisive and destructive force. There is a reason Kenyans just resent Narc Kenya. It reflects everything bad and negative about the Kibaki regime. The arrogance of a handful of people who think the world should revolve around them. The moneybags of Narc K are also very pompous (by the way they are not going to finance people like Kombo and Ngilu much).
Narc K is going to cause lots of headache to the grand coalition. When Biwott comes over he is going to be at the centre of things too. Remember when Kibaki recruited him and he demanded to have big cabinet positions for himself and his crew. The whole thing flopped because there was a lot of opposition from some of Kibaki's people.
Coalition politics needs a lot of humility and tolerance, two of the things mostly lacking in the Kibaki team .
I notice you also tried to sell Kibaki to us ati, so that we can wait for the younger political leadership to emerge. My God can we find a better reason to keep Kibaki, Kamale please.
I am always amused by people who think age determines the politics of people. Jaramogi died in his eighties and was even then one of the most progressive mainstream politicians Kenya has produced. Some of the most reactionary, tribalistic and just outrightly stupid leaders we have in the country today are very young people some in their thirties. The Mungatanas, Kianjuris, Kibogos, Karuas etc are very young people. Look at their politics.
The problem we have in Kenya is not a generational problem. It is our politics that is screwed up. The selfishness, the greed, the tribalism and cannibalization of our resources: this things know no age limit.
Is Raila different from Kibaki? By a mile and some. I tend to think Kibaki is a closeted tribalist. Even in his earlier days he was often accused of never venturing beyond his Othaya constituency. Kibaki doesn't know Kenyans really. He lives in a narrow world surrounded with wealth and people like him. Kibaki is bewildered that Kenyans would not accept him as their Saviour after what he has done. Kibaki doesn't understand that two thirds of the population live in absolute poverty even in the midst of alleged economic boom. Raila is closer to the heartbeat of the nation. He is a rich man too, but he knows his people and will make a much more better leader than Kibaki would ever be in his lifetime.
The short of it Mr. Kamale is that the ODM is miles a head of the Narc team which is just to start the very grueling task of coalition building. With Kibaki's tainted record in working with a coalition things are going to get very interesting. And then we will bring down the hammer.
Adongo
|
|
|
|
Post by adongo12345 on Mar 5, 2007 21:22:44 GMT 3
www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143965652www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143965659KamaleWhat now with mama Ngilu going nuclear? I told you she owns the Narc party, at least on paper. They can't just rip it off her hands and give it to Kibaki to help him run away from the Narc Kenya lunatics. How is both Kibaki and Ngilu going to be presidential candidates for Narc? As you and I know, Ngilu wants to be Kibaki's running mate and that is why she is going to stick to her Narc baby with both hands. She also has the goods on Kibaki. On the lies Kibaki tells them in private. Ngilu may be dismissed as some whack politician with no grassroot support, but if Kibaki wants to run as Narc candidate he has to deal with her. My humble opinion is that Kibaki is partyless at the moment. Back to D.P? Serves him right. This promiscuity with parties was bond to get someone in trouble. Now what? They will have to chota the mama some serious cash to buy the party. She is not going to be Kibaki's running mate and Ngilu as a presidential candidate is a stale joke. Can Ngilu bring Narc to the ODM? I guess after Kalonzo storms out to go hang himself with his ROPE party Ngilu might take the detour to ODM. Since the ODM finds people like the Jesus Alive lady of Holy Profits, Ms Wanjiru a credible member in good standing, Ngilu should be a Gold Card member. I like the drama in the party elections. This has always been the beginning of our problems. People own these parties and run them like private entities. As soon as those same parties form a government, those who own these parties start behaving like they own the government. Without internal party democracy in Kenya, it is going to be even harder to have democratic governments. Kenyans need to take this internal party politics very seriously. Adongo.
|
|
