Post by miguna on Mar 23, 2007 6:44:29 GMT 3
Kibaki is in a ditch; Kenyans finally have an opportunity to make some gains (An edited version appeared in the Daily Nation, March 22, 2007 under Commentaries)
By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - © 20 March 2007
By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - © 20 March 2007
Presidential Kibaki is stuck in a ditch; politically speaking. The ditch is surrounded by ferocious political hounds baying for his survival. His re-election bid is under threat. Any misstep is likely to lead to a fatal confrontation with his emboldened opponents. The result of that confrontation will either fatally imperil his ability to continue governing or render his re-election superfluous. Hence, his latest constitutional navigation is actually an attempt to hurl himself out of the ditch. The problem as I see it is that he is using the same ladders (i.e. personalities) that failed to catapult him to freedom. My prediction is that the ladders will once more malfunction, thereby jeopardizing his slow climb to political safety (and re-election).
By his sudden armistice, he seems to have acknowledged the fact that he is deeply buried in both political and constitutional quagmire. The evidence is in his reluctant but defining decision to agree to negotiate over the minimum or essential reforms that the opposition has been demanding for several months now. Kibaki is either honestly angling for a deal or he has just launched another chapter in his ongoing scheme to deflect attention from the issues and bid time, knowing that at the last minute, he can always turn around and blame his opponents for “derailing the constitutional review process.” We recall seeing him do the same after the referendum debacle.
Although Kibaki looks like a man desperately searching for an exit strategy out of a quagmire he has dug himself into, political observers are keenly waiting to see any signs indicating that this is nothing but another intricate tactical maneuver. After all, didn’t he reappoint Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi and Education Minister Prof George Saitoti after the two had “stepped aside” to allow “investigations to be conducted on allegations of corruption that had been made against them?” Didn’t he also appoint both the Goldenberg Commission of Inquiry and the Kiruki Commission of Inquiry, yet he has stiffly refused to release the inquiries’ reports to the public? What has he done about the inquiries’ recommendations? Does someone still remember what Kibaki promised the nation about his commitments to stamping off corruption and tribalism?
Kibaki has not announced the current truce out of affection for his opponents. Neither has he done so because he loves constitutional reforms. President Kibaki is not interested in leveling the playing field before the December elections. Nor does he have any love left for the ODM-K squadron. Kibaki hates Muungano wa Katiba Mpya (MWKM) in the same manner he loathes radical changes. It is actually engrained in his political DNA. If in doubt, please check his record over more than forty years.
No Government gives in to its opponents for egalitarian reasons. And this Government is not an exception.
Given President Kibaki’s record over the past four years and three months, this latest decision must have been extremely painful to make. By nature, Kibaki is an arrogant, elitist and dismissive person who thinks that ignoring an issue for long eventually either invalidates it or makes it go away. Unfortunately for him, the constitutional issue has raged on without any signs of disappearing. If he had any chance of pulling this off - either by remaining obstinate or by simply pursuing his agenda - Kibaki would have done so. The fact that he feels he cannot ignore this any longer demonstrates a weakness that no strategic or tactical maneuver will solve. The sooner he realizes that the better. And the opposition must exploit this weakness to the fullest extent possible.
Unlike a major media house that robustly announced Kibaki’s climb down on the constitutional issue as “pulling the rug under the opposition’s feet;” I actually view Kibaki’s latest maneuver as a public acknowledgement of defeat. He didn’t have to literally grovel before us for that fact to be self-evident. Politically speaking, Kibaki’s call for a truce is enough.
The belated face saving attempt at negotiating the terms of the minimum/essential reforms with both the ODM-K and the MWKM lobby group, is, politically speaking, Kibaki’s loss. He blinked first.
That is very significant in view of Raila Odinga’s recent declaration that ODM-K had a plan B that would cripple the Government and force it to enact the reform package before elections scheduled later this year.
Speculation has been rife since then as to what was up the ODM-K sleeves. Some, including Musalia Mudavadi, have opined that the ODM-K would use the budget as a weapon to force the Government’s hand on this issue. By ganging up and threatening to scuttle the passage of the budget, the ODM-K could have compromised the Government’s ability to operate. Coming just a few months prior to the elections, an ODM-K victory in parliament over such a hot-button issue could have spelt doom on the Government’s re-election bid.
Mass action was also always an option. Although we will probably never know what Raila meant by ODM-K’s “Option B.” Whatever it was must have unsettled the Government into adopting its position.
If both the ODM-K and the lobby group manage to have all the items on their list enacted before the December elections, it is them who would score a major victory over the Government. Anyone saying otherwise does not understand politics.
The last two weeks have been interesting. It begun with the Government’s announcement that it plans to implement an ICT initiative whereby all public (civil) service jobs will be accessed and applied for electronically.
On the face of it, this is a commendable initiative. Kenyans have eagerly been waiting for the Government to unveil its e-government program for more than three years. For years, Kenyans have complained of corruption in all sectors of the economy, including the civil service. Qualified Kenyans have experienced difficulties obtaining jobs without influence peddling or bribery.
Over the years, it is common knowledge that technical know-how does not get one a job. In stead, “technical know who” prevails. The right political connections is known to dictate who gets what plum job, how much people are paid or even when employees can retire or get recalled from retirement.
In as much as all Kenyans of good will would like to join the Government in celebration over this landmark announcement; there are issues that must be raised and caution that we have to register if we are going to avoid major disappointments.
First, it is difficult to imagine how this e-government initiative will benefit all Kenyans when very few of the more than 30 million have access to computers; leave alone access to the Internet.
An extremely tiny fraction of Kenyan homes, schools, libraries and work places have computers. A tinier fraction of these have access to the Internet. And when one considers the fact that very few Kenyans would be able to use their employers’ resources for personal benefit, it means that a miniscule fraction of those with access to modern technology will be able to utilize the Government’s initiative.
In a way, this might turn out to be just another misguided initiative by the Government. At best, it can only benefit the economically well-endowed in the society; the class of people that do not need or deserve this kind of help from the Government. Either that or the Government never intended to implement it. It is possible that this is a mere electoral gimmick by the Government.
Second, before such an initiative can work practically, it must be preceded by a far-reaching ICT infrastructure development that covers all regions of the country. To do that would require massive resources and time. We are talking hundreds of billions of shillings over not less than five years. This Government neither has the required resources nor adequate time, between now and December, to implement such an initiative.
The introduction of any groundbreaking technological initiative like this requires a thorough public education and awareness without which the level of participation and attendant results will be dismal.
A third concern is the issue of ensuring that public (civil) service jobs are advertised well in advance and are made freely available to all Kenyans regardless of where they reside. This will entail that the Government runs a publication dedicated to job postings. This publication must be distributed widely to each household at public expense. In addition, there must be policies, regulations and laws governing privacy, conflicts of interest, lobbying and influence peddling. Without stringent regimes that are enforceable, it is very likely that the culture of kitu kidogo, political correctness and connections and other dubious corrupt practices will render this otherwise positive initiative a joke. We also hope that applications will not mysteriously disappear in cyberspace.
Although Kenyans finally have a realistic chance of extracting some real value out of this indolent administration, we must not celebrate too soon as these initiatives might all turn out to be clever diversions, gimmicks or a terrible nightmare. Observers are watching to see evidence that Kibaki intends to dig himself out the hole he has found himself in. Only time will tell.
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*The writer is a Barrister & Solicitor in Toronto, Canada
Miguna@migunamiguna.com
