Post by miguna on Mar 29, 2007 3:30:31 GMT 3
WAITING FOR MOI – PREDICTING HOW THE SELF-DECLARED PROFESSOR OF POLITICS MAY VOTE
This is un-chattered territory. The territory where we try to predict how the self-declared professor of politics - our own former president Daniel Toroitich arap Moi - will vote in the presidential elections later this year.
Pray for me -and please don’t laugh. This is serious business. Moi watchers (and they are a legion) have recently been confused by the many intricate moves the master political chess player have been making across Kenya’s unstable political theatre.
Exactly eight months before elections, Kenyans are still waiting for Mr. Moi to declare his political preference. Being the only surviving former president we have – and a senior citizen to boot – Moi’s every word and act are being closely scrutinized by political buffs, many of whom are real tenured senior professors of political science. So, this is the real deal.
A few weeks ago, Moi promised to make his declaration public and “offer direction to the Rift Valley people very soon.” Apart from the Rift Valley portion of his statement, Kenyans welcomed Moi’s promise with their usual eagerness. After all, Moi ruled Kenya with iron fists for twenty four years, most of it under one party, Kanu. Anyone would therefore have expected Moi’s political “direction” to be for the entire country.
Be that as it may, Kenyans still hold Moi in some esteem, having introduced then removed the legal limitation on our political expression. Also, Moi is grudgingly regarded with some reverence because he not only presided over three multi-party elections; he also facilitated a smooth transition from the Kanu administration to Narc under President Mwai Kibaki.
These are remarkable achievements that many African countries cannot boast of. That is why Kenyans are generally interested in what Moi has to say. If for nothing else, it reminds us of where we have been; what landmark achievements we have made as a country; the roadblocks ahead; and where we are headed.
Those are the main reasons why predicting whom Moi will vote for is important. It was not going to be this way, except that the master political chess player had promised us to be on the lookout for his grand announcement.
With the political waters boiling, muddied and increasingly becoming turbulent, punctuated by legal skirmishes between two Kanu factions – one under Nicholas Biwott firmly backing President Kibaki’s re-election bid and the other under William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta slowly feeling more secure under the Orange tent – with Moi’s own four sons, former lieutenants and generals scattered all over the fringes of the political map (at least for now); analysts are glued to their TV sets, radios and newspapers trying to decipher Moi’s intricate signals. And they are mixed.
Moi has frequently and unequivocally stated that he is supporting the Biwottt-led Kanu faction. At the same time, he has stridently opposed the Uhuru/Ruto foray into the Orange country. These statements have been consistent with his reported secret meetings with Kibaki at both State House, Nairobi, and at his Kabarak home.
I have a quaky suspicion that Moi’s statements on Uhuru/Ruto faction of Kanu and their sojourn into the Orange country was deliberately intended to mislead. Deep down, Moi has always wanted to either convert ODM-K into a vehicle for his second political project post 2002 Uhuru or if he couldn’t, to subvert it completely.
Initially, political analysts thought that Moi’s frequent broadsides on both Uhuru and Ruto were primarily aimed at scuttling the prospects of a united Orange brigade featuring both Kanu and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as the core formation against Kibaki’s re-election bid.
But those analytical premonitions have been superseded by the registration of ODM-K and both Ruto’s and Uhuru’s declaration of interest on the ODM-K presidential ticket.
Moi may not be openly chatting with Uhuru and Ruto on the political front. However, certain events have left no doubt in the minds of careful watchers that all cards are still very much in contention.
A few pointers that need careful examination are these:
Recently, Moi’s former army chief, Gen. Sumbeiyo, and his chief sleuth, Brigadier Boinet, formally endorsed Mwingi North MP, Kalonzo Musyoka. It was last year, during Gen. Sembeiyo’s book launch, that Kenyans got a glimpse of how cozy Kalonzo was to the retired army general. Then, it was posited that the confluence might have been the Sudanese peace process where Gen. Sembeiyo was one of the main mediators while Kalonzo was Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Minister.
However, when Gen. Sembeiyo published an op-ed piece in a local newspaper publicly endorsing Kalonzo’s candidature, many analysts took note. Last week, both Gen. Sumbeiyo and former Intelligence chief, Brigadier Boinet accompanied Kalonzo to a few rallies in the Rift Valley. Their political affiliations were no longer in doubt. They stated that much last week.
As well, Moi’s four sons – Gideon Moi, Jonathan Moi, Raymond Moi and Capt. (Rtd) Philip Kipchirchir Moi - have attended ODM-K rallies (on and off), where they have given indications that they might be supporting the Orange brigade and not Kibaki’s team (whatever this will turn out to be). While we don’t have reliable information as to which ODM-K presidential candidate Moi’s sons support, what is significant is the fact that they are not with Biwot.
Significantly, Moi’s former loyal head of the civil service, Sally Kosgei publicly endorsed Langata MP, Raila Odinga’s candidature in a rally in Marakwet. Two weeks prior to her endorsement of Raila, Ms. Kosgei accompanied Kalonzo in another of Kalonzo’s recent tours of the Rift Valley. We will not question Ms. Kosgei’s fidelity, except to say that she, too, appear to be firmly in ODM-K.
With tensions currently rising within ODM-K (especially between Raila and Kalonzo) – and with Narc-K’s recent retreat - many people are wondering if the professor of politics is back in the driver’s seat; trying to launch another audacious project.
It is not lost on observers that Kalonzo used to be a long-serving and loyal Kanu operative under Moi. In fact, Kalonzo was introduced to politics by one of Moi’s staunchest protégés, Mulu Mutisya. For more than twenty years, Kalonzo was one of Moi’s most loyal underlings.
Many are beginning to think that Kalonzo might turn out to be Moi’s final surprise to the Kenyan people. Both Moi and Kalonzo claim to be staunch Christians. Both seem to fear radical changes. It could also just be that Moi is as confused as some Kenyans and that both he and his closest political confidantes have no idea which party to back.
Or I may well be wrong. If so, I can always say that it was just a prediction.
But regardless of who Moi ends up endorsing or votes for, Kenyans have long discovered his medicine, which will be dispensed at the right time.
____________________________________________________
*The writer is a barrister & solicitor in Toronto, Canada
Miguna@migunamiguna.com
By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - 26 March 2007
This is un-chattered territory. The territory where we try to predict how the self-declared professor of politics - our own former president Daniel Toroitich arap Moi - will vote in the presidential elections later this year.
Pray for me -and please don’t laugh. This is serious business. Moi watchers (and they are a legion) have recently been confused by the many intricate moves the master political chess player have been making across Kenya’s unstable political theatre.
Exactly eight months before elections, Kenyans are still waiting for Mr. Moi to declare his political preference. Being the only surviving former president we have – and a senior citizen to boot – Moi’s every word and act are being closely scrutinized by political buffs, many of whom are real tenured senior professors of political science. So, this is the real deal.
A few weeks ago, Moi promised to make his declaration public and “offer direction to the Rift Valley people very soon.” Apart from the Rift Valley portion of his statement, Kenyans welcomed Moi’s promise with their usual eagerness. After all, Moi ruled Kenya with iron fists for twenty four years, most of it under one party, Kanu. Anyone would therefore have expected Moi’s political “direction” to be for the entire country.
Be that as it may, Kenyans still hold Moi in some esteem, having introduced then removed the legal limitation on our political expression. Also, Moi is grudgingly regarded with some reverence because he not only presided over three multi-party elections; he also facilitated a smooth transition from the Kanu administration to Narc under President Mwai Kibaki.
These are remarkable achievements that many African countries cannot boast of. That is why Kenyans are generally interested in what Moi has to say. If for nothing else, it reminds us of where we have been; what landmark achievements we have made as a country; the roadblocks ahead; and where we are headed.
Those are the main reasons why predicting whom Moi will vote for is important. It was not going to be this way, except that the master political chess player had promised us to be on the lookout for his grand announcement.
With the political waters boiling, muddied and increasingly becoming turbulent, punctuated by legal skirmishes between two Kanu factions – one under Nicholas Biwott firmly backing President Kibaki’s re-election bid and the other under William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta slowly feeling more secure under the Orange tent – with Moi’s own four sons, former lieutenants and generals scattered all over the fringes of the political map (at least for now); analysts are glued to their TV sets, radios and newspapers trying to decipher Moi’s intricate signals. And they are mixed.
Moi has frequently and unequivocally stated that he is supporting the Biwottt-led Kanu faction. At the same time, he has stridently opposed the Uhuru/Ruto foray into the Orange country. These statements have been consistent with his reported secret meetings with Kibaki at both State House, Nairobi, and at his Kabarak home.
I have a quaky suspicion that Moi’s statements on Uhuru/Ruto faction of Kanu and their sojourn into the Orange country was deliberately intended to mislead. Deep down, Moi has always wanted to either convert ODM-K into a vehicle for his second political project post 2002 Uhuru or if he couldn’t, to subvert it completely.
Initially, political analysts thought that Moi’s frequent broadsides on both Uhuru and Ruto were primarily aimed at scuttling the prospects of a united Orange brigade featuring both Kanu and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as the core formation against Kibaki’s re-election bid.
But those analytical premonitions have been superseded by the registration of ODM-K and both Ruto’s and Uhuru’s declaration of interest on the ODM-K presidential ticket.
Moi may not be openly chatting with Uhuru and Ruto on the political front. However, certain events have left no doubt in the minds of careful watchers that all cards are still very much in contention.
A few pointers that need careful examination are these:
Recently, Moi’s former army chief, Gen. Sumbeiyo, and his chief sleuth, Brigadier Boinet, formally endorsed Mwingi North MP, Kalonzo Musyoka. It was last year, during Gen. Sembeiyo’s book launch, that Kenyans got a glimpse of how cozy Kalonzo was to the retired army general. Then, it was posited that the confluence might have been the Sudanese peace process where Gen. Sembeiyo was one of the main mediators while Kalonzo was Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Minister.
However, when Gen. Sembeiyo published an op-ed piece in a local newspaper publicly endorsing Kalonzo’s candidature, many analysts took note. Last week, both Gen. Sumbeiyo and former Intelligence chief, Brigadier Boinet accompanied Kalonzo to a few rallies in the Rift Valley. Their political affiliations were no longer in doubt. They stated that much last week.
As well, Moi’s four sons – Gideon Moi, Jonathan Moi, Raymond Moi and Capt. (Rtd) Philip Kipchirchir Moi - have attended ODM-K rallies (on and off), where they have given indications that they might be supporting the Orange brigade and not Kibaki’s team (whatever this will turn out to be). While we don’t have reliable information as to which ODM-K presidential candidate Moi’s sons support, what is significant is the fact that they are not with Biwot.
Significantly, Moi’s former loyal head of the civil service, Sally Kosgei publicly endorsed Langata MP, Raila Odinga’s candidature in a rally in Marakwet. Two weeks prior to her endorsement of Raila, Ms. Kosgei accompanied Kalonzo in another of Kalonzo’s recent tours of the Rift Valley. We will not question Ms. Kosgei’s fidelity, except to say that she, too, appear to be firmly in ODM-K.
With tensions currently rising within ODM-K (especially between Raila and Kalonzo) – and with Narc-K’s recent retreat - many people are wondering if the professor of politics is back in the driver’s seat; trying to launch another audacious project.
It is not lost on observers that Kalonzo used to be a long-serving and loyal Kanu operative under Moi. In fact, Kalonzo was introduced to politics by one of Moi’s staunchest protégés, Mulu Mutisya. For more than twenty years, Kalonzo was one of Moi’s most loyal underlings.
Many are beginning to think that Kalonzo might turn out to be Moi’s final surprise to the Kenyan people. Both Moi and Kalonzo claim to be staunch Christians. Both seem to fear radical changes. It could also just be that Moi is as confused as some Kenyans and that both he and his closest political confidantes have no idea which party to back.
Or I may well be wrong. If so, I can always say that it was just a prediction.
But regardless of who Moi ends up endorsing or votes for, Kenyans have long discovered his medicine, which will be dispensed at the right time.
____________________________________________________
*The writer is a barrister & solicitor in Toronto, Canada
Miguna@migunamiguna.com