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Post by Omwenga on Jan 27, 2012 20:16:43 GMT 3
In Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi As VP Running Mate, omwenga.com/2011/09/18/why-raila-cannot-drop-mudavadi-and-word-to-raila-supporters-an-admirers-in-east-and-central/, I laid out reasons why I believe Raila cannot drop Mudavadi or conditions under which he could acceptably do so. Excerpts: In a comment to this [Standard] story in the comment section, I said, “Raila will make a fetal mistake which will ensure nothing but defeat at the polls, if he drops Mudavadi as his running mate. Those urging him to do just that are either non-supporters who would love nothing but such an outcome, or supporters who are either disingenuous or are shortchanged in their understanding Kenya politics. Fortunately, Raila understands all of this given what we know about him and therefore my expectation is, Raila will not drop Mudavadi as his running mate.” I say this because this is an issue I have been looking into for some time and shared my analysis of it in my blog, My Take On Prof. Makau Mutua Suggestion Raila Should Drop Mudavadi In Favor of Paul Muite, omwenga.com/2011/09/11/my-take-on-prof-makau-mutua-suggestion-raila-should-drop-mudavadi-in-favor-of-paul-muite/ in which I disagreed with the good professor and instead concluded for the reasons I provided therein that Raila should not drop Mudavadi and these are in a nutshell: First, and almost without saying, Raila cannot drop Mudavadi as his running mate against the latter’s will for doing so, as I have noted above, will create fatalistic obstacles and traps for Raila which he may not successfully maneuver around to reach victory. Second, even though it’s conceivable that Mudavadi may, in fact, be persuaded to step aside and be replaced by someone else, and willingly albeit reluctantly do so, everything I am looking at suggests doing so would not bring with an advantage for Raila and ODM significantly enough to warrant the risk of doing so in lieu of keeping Mudavadi as VP. I noted in my analysis that, even though regional balancing is important as Makau correctly points out and we all pretty much agree, I disagree that “Kenya isn’t “mature enough” to accept a President and Deputy President from the same region,” as Makau argues. Quite the contrary, I believe we have matured sufficiently enough to embrace tectonic transformational changes, including how we vote notwithstanding the relative youthfulness of our new found democracy. Indeed, as I further noted, the new constitution provides ample foundation to bring about these changes as shall be witnessed by election of our first president with true nationwide support and backing come next year. “And therein lies the open secret to Raila’s key to resolving the VP slot dilemma: the constitution.” I then went on to analyze and have provided my rationale for this conclusion in that blog. Third, it is far much easier for Raila to convince more voters from East and Central to vote for him in sufficient numbers to overcome any loses elsewhere than Raila convincing voters in Western province why he has dropped Mudavadi, regardless of the perfectly reasonable reasons behind such a move and regardless of Mudavadi’s own blessing for the move. Fourth, the only way in my view substituting Mudavadi could pay dividends, is if the substitution is for a woman, to provide gender balance. Gender balance, however, presents a series of its own concerns and considerations which on balance, in my view, there are more pitfalls there than those Raila has to face in tackling regional balance. End quote. In an article appearing on the Daily Nation, www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Mudavadi+team+plans+to+play+run+off+card+against+Raila+/-/1064/1311654/-/item/2/-/cqnxgf/-/index.html, Mudavadi's handlers had a story written in which they say Mudavadi is poised to seriously challenge Raila for party nomination as presidential candidate. I disagree with such move for several reasons and before I even address those reasons, let me be clear and will elaborate more in this context that a party that does not hold open and transparent elections in the nomination of its candidates is prone to fail only because how a party conducts its affairs, is a reflection of how it will once in power. Having said that, let me hasten to add that when it comes to picking the presidential contender for any party, that spot should and must be automatically taken by the party's current Party Leader, except where the position is vacant. Ditto for the position of presidential running mate, which should go unchallenged to the Deputy Party Leader with the second most votes cast for party positions in the latest party elections. This is important for several reasons: First, it ensures party unity and loyalty, which are two inseparable characteristics of a successful party. Second, this is the practice in most successful democracies, including here in the US where the party leader is never challenged and the last time it happened, it was back in the 80s when Ted Kennedy tried to replace then poorly performing President Jimmy Carter but as expected, he did not succeed. To do permit a challenge would be akin to Vice President Joe Biden suddenly challenging Obama for the Democratic Party nomination for 2012, which would be laughed right out of his head. Third, this will remain to be the case, even when the Party Leader vies and loses because, when you stop to think about it, the idea is not the individual running but a messenger for the party. The only exception to this, would be when the incumbent Party Leader performs so poorly, be that as just Party Leader or as president, is corrupt or is otherwise damaged goods as a leading presidential contender such that allowing him to head the ticket would doom the party in the view of the party's majority, in which case a serious challenge for the nomination can and should be mounted but then only if there is a better candidate who can erase the fatalistic problems. Going by this analysis, I don't see why Mudavadi should seek to challenge Raila for nomination as flag bearer of ODM. Raila is for all practical purposes the incumbent president, having been so elected but not sworn but was instead sworn and has been effectively serving as Prime Minister. Other than his opponents who have been conniving to stop him from being reelected simply because they want to be elected instead, Raila has no baggage that could be even remotely argued to prevent him from mounting an effective and successful campaign. All polls conducted thus far show him as the man to beat for the next general elections and these can only get better in time as the campaigns get underway. Mudavadi, on the other hand, has been on Raila's side and effectively carried out his duties not just as Deputy Party Leader but also as Deputy Prime Minister. There is no question he in his own right qualifies to run for president but that's not the issue. The issue is, is there any reason he should replace Raila as ODM flag-bearer in seeking the presidency and he and/or his handlers seem to suggest so in the article cited above but anyone looking at this objectively would have to conclude those reasons are either too peripheral or simply not strong enough to make any compelling case that Mudavadi is or can be the better candidate. One of the reasons they give is that Mudavadi is the candidate who will ensure a straight win in the first round in the presidential election, thus avoiding the necessity of a run-off. According to the story, the "strategy is based on reports that presidential aspirants identified with the G7 Alliance of Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, George Saitoti and Eugene Wamalwa are all likely to run for the presidency in order to lock the PM out of their political strongholds thereby denying him the requisite 50 per cent plus one majority and 25 per cent vote in 24 counties." This is a clever reasoning given only because it's designed to confuse and convince the unwary. Although Raila has been getting ready to vie for the presidency notwithstanding the happenings at ICC, only his distractors and scheming partisans have been focused on the ICC as key to Raila's path to State House. The truth is, in the new Kenya, we must have presidential candidates who must not only appeal to Kenyans widely, but one who must make the compelling case and successfully so that we must leave tribalism behind with the old constitution and move with the letter and spirit of the new constitution, which is high on integrity and sees no tribalism. Raila is such a candidate and even though given political egos someone at the party believes they can make this case better than Raila, the reality is and quite objectively so, Raila is far more better positioned than the rest, including Mudavadi himself and this is also true when compared viz the overall presidential field and thus the reason he should be nominated without challenge. Again, objectively looking at this, ODM should mount a campaign led by Mudavadi himself to inform voters that by him not challenging Raila does not mean he is a wimp or Raila's lapdog as some uncouth characters are quietly passing rumors and innuendos basically intended to tick off Mudavadi so he can jump ship and declare war against Raila, a very ill-advised move, if he were to oblige them but Mudavadi is a seasoned and intelligent politician who should know better than follow such ill-advise. There is only one president who serves at a time, everyone must wait their turn no matter how long that takes. The most important consideration every party member should look at and agree on is first, what does the party stand for and second, who is best qualified to lead the party in implementing those ideals. Once that decision is made and the person to lead is selected, then out of loyalty, consistency, unity and continuation, it should be full throttle from everyone in the party until their leader is sworn into office as president. That's what ODM should do and if it does, all shall be fine in the end. Otherwise, let those in disagreement speak now or never and if that means leaving the party, it's better now than later if they have to be left with any credibility. Such honesty and transparency is what is needed in all parties, rather than the scheming and conniving we are all too accustomed to at the expense of true democracy. [Unedited]
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Post by job on Jan 27, 2012 20:40:51 GMT 3
I think Mudavadi has every right to run for his party's presidential nomination. Let Mudavadi and any other ODM leader challenge Raila in the primary. That's how multiparty democracy works.
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Post by akinyi2005 on Jan 27, 2012 20:48:18 GMT 3
I think Mudavadi has every right to run for his party's presidential nomination. Let Mudavadi and any other ODM leader challenge Raila in the primary. That's how multiparty democracy works. yes, Riaga Ogallo and a group of elders have asked Henry Kosgey to join Mudavadi and Raila in the fight for the ODM ticket - i see nothing wrong with that.
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Post by johns on Jan 28, 2012 0:06:02 GMT 3
To an extent i am totally in disagreement with the central premise of your argument on this one. ODM has to first learn how to engage itself with its internal democracy before it goes out there to solicit votes in order to win the oncoming general election. What i would rather see happen is; the Mudavadi crowd within the party should make sure they dont fall prey to the machinations and adopting narratives emating from ODM enemies as weapons against their rivals for party leadership.
Hogwash narratives like; so and so can not win in the first round are completely unhelpful, moreso when you are talking about party people whose common agenda should be winning the general election. I for one would encourage more candidates to come out and challenge Raila for party leadership, in that way kenyans can continue to see if indeed democratic space has been widen within the party and how the party conduct itself to internal challenges within its body
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 28, 2012 2:19:21 GMT 3
To an extent i am totally in disagreement with the central premise of your argument on this one. ODM has to first learn how to engage itself with its internal democracy before it goes out there to solicit votes in order to win the oncoming general election. What i would rather see happen is; the Mudavadi crowd within the party should make sure they dont fall prey to the machinations and adopting narratives emating from ODM enemies as weapons against their rivals for party leadership.Hogwash narratives like; so and so can not win in the first round are completely unhelpful, moreso when you are talking about party people whose common agenda should be winning the general election. I for one would encourage more candidates to come out and challenge Raila for party leadership, in that way kenyans can continue to see if indeed democratic space has been widen within the party and how the party conduct itself to internal challenges within its body , Johns,
I am one firm believer that, when it comes to politics, it's healthy, indeed, desirable to have opposing viewpoints even between and among those who otherwise agree in the core beliefs and ideology with the converse of that being equally true, namely, it's unhealthy to always disagree with those you otherwise differ in fundamental beliefs and ideology. Let me completely flush out the issue I am trying to raise in this post and hope it sheds more light on where I am coming from with this. We agree in principle and I stated as much in my main piece that openness and transparency within parties is a must under the new political dispensation as that is a reflection or signal as to how the party would govern if put in power. I have already provided reasons I distinguish presidential flag-bearer from all other positions. Implicit in my analysis, is an assumption that the party leader has been elected under an open and transparent manner and, from what we know, there may have been issues with the nomination process in many areas but there was no issue raised as to the election of party leaders and, specifically, the Party Leader position Raila holds now. The requirement for openness and transparency is therefore met. Had Raila gone on to be sworn as president after being elected, we would now be talking about reelection with Mudavadi as in all likelihood his Deputy, unless sacked along the way Moi style, which I doubt. And this is really my point: In that scenario, it could not be said that Mudavadi and others must challenge the party leader, who is also the sitting president for renomination to head the party ticket in order for the process to be deemed to be democratic. That's taking the concept of democracy into the stratosphere rather than keeping it right here on earth where it has thrived just fine for centuries in countries that cared to nourish it. Put it differently, this is what Mudavadi should be saying: We have a party leader who was chosen in an open and transparent election. He never saw the inside of State House as president thanks to Kibaki and Kivuitu. Many of the ideals expressed in our party platform from 2007 are still unaccomplished to no fault of our party leader. Let us regroup and once more allow our party leader to be elected to carry finally implement all that we have been hoping to as a party. I support him in these efforts and urge all of you to do the same. My turn would come and if we deliver as a party all these ideals, that should be a shoo-in for me. I just don't think it's in any party's interest to challenge its party leader for the nomination and that is not to say Mudavadi would be committing sin to so challenge Raila. See mine as an effort to inject American style democracy in this respect but I am all ears for those with a differing view, which I obviously respect as well. And just so it is very clear, Mudavadi is my choice for VP running mate. P.S. I like very much the language I highlight in your post and needless to say agree with it 100%.
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 28, 2012 2:46:38 GMT 3
I think Mudavadi has every right to run for his party's presidential nomination. Let Mudavadi and any other ODM leader challenge Raila in the primary. That's how multiparty democracy works. yes, Riaga Ogallo and a group of elders have asked Henry Kosgey to join Mudavadi and Raila in the fight for the ODM ticket - i see nothing wrong with that. Akinyi,, Please note I am not saying that there is anything wrong for Mudavadi or anyone to challenge Raila for party nomination; I am merely expressing a preference that they don't! I actually like the fact Mudavadi said in the DN article that he does not intend to go negative on Raila. In other words, there will not be a Mitt Romney/Newt Gingrich bare-knuckle like dual--and that's bot a relief and good thing to know. ;D
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 28, 2012 2:50:24 GMT 3
I think Mudavadi has every right to run for his party's presidential nomination. Let Mudavadi and any other ODM leader challenge Raila in the primary. That's how multiparty democracy works. Job, I am beginning to wonder if I have not properly communicated what I am trying to say and that is, (1) I am not saying there is anything wrong with Mudavadi challenging Raila; mine is just a preference that he does not and if that were the case (2) it would not be inconsistent with democratic ideals as Raila was elected to the position of party leader in an open and transparent manner. I see no reason to challenge him again for that position akin to not seeing any reason for Joe Biden to challenge Obama. But, if he thinks he has one or two, then let him do so and the delegates will decide, which I am okay with as well.
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Post by johns on Jan 28, 2012 2:57:52 GMT 3
Omwenga,
The conundrum which camp Mudavadi was faced with was this drum beat which had started gaining ascendacy and threatening to push Mudavadi into the outside peripheral within the partys stratas; that Raila should look elswhere to balance the ticket. I can tell you without contradiction that Musalia had started to believe the narrative and felt that his support was being taken for granted by those who were peddling it. Again we must remember that this man is under extreme pressure by his constituents to be seen as a leader not just a follower and to avert the prospects of greenhorns like Eugene who have made it a habit of chidding him as a politician with no spine, Musalia had to do something.
Look at it from his point of view, if he does not ran for party leadership which mean he does not stand a chance of being the flag bearer of ODM in the coming election, then it would imply that the electorate in the entire western province would be lacking someone to coalesce around as an embodiment of their desires, therefore opening up poachers to sway minds and scattering their votes into myriad directions. It would also mean that his usefulness to the party would be on a short life span since he would not be bargaining from a point of strength when it comes to the choice of running mate.
In short Mudavadis challenge for party leadership is his way of assuring that the number two slot is not open for debates or desirable for any other.
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 29, 2012 0:36:03 GMT 3
Omwenga, The conundrum which camp Mudavadi was faced with was this drum beat which had started gaining ascendacy and threatening to push Mudavadi into the outside peripheral within the partys stratas; that Raila should look elswhere to balance the ticket. I can tell you without contradiction that Musalia had started to believe the narrative and felt that his support was being taken for granted by those who were peddling it. Again we must remember that this man is under extreme pressure by his constituents to be seen as a leader not just a follower and to avert the prospects of greenhorns like Eugene who have made it a habit of chidding him as a politician with no spine, Musalia had to do something. Look at it from his point of view, if he does not ran for party leadership which mean he does not stand a chance of being the flag bearer of ODM in the coming election, then it would imply that the electorate in the entire western province would be lacking someone to coalesce around as an embodiment of their desires, therefore opening up poachers to sway minds and scattering their votes into myriad directions. It would also mean that his usefulness to the party would be on a short life span since he would not be bargaining from a point of strength when it comes to the choice of running mate. In short Mudavadis challenge for party leadership is his way of assuring that the number two slot is not open for debates or desirable for any other. Johns,, I hear you. We are on the same page on this.
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man
Junior Member
Posts: 99
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Post by man on Jan 29, 2012 0:56:11 GMT 3
It is a good thing that Mudavadi has joined the race for the ODM ticket and that is healthy for the party. I like Mudavadi and I think he is a good guy. But on a serious note (and this is just my opinion) I think his candidacy for the ODM ticket is a sick joke.
Up until now, the only time you hear or see Mudavadi anywhere is either in Nairobi or his Mululu home or western backyard. Those are the only two places you would find him. The only time you see him attend an ODM rally is if the rally is held in western, and this is a fact. Now all of a sudden he is out and about touring other counties in the name of trying to seek votes from delegattes he had hitherto had no time for. Like I said, this is simply a sick joke, but it is his democratic right to seek nomination within the party
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Post by okolowaka on Jan 29, 2012 2:01:37 GMT 3
...Although Mudavadi's democratic right to challenge for the top seat in ODM may seem like spoiling for a fight with Raila, I believe that this is a strategy that ODM has adopted for long-term goals... IMO, ODM knows too well that at the moment it is only Raila who has the countrywide visibility and grass-roots support to challenge anyone out there for the presidency. So what is the game plan...? Kenya has turned a leaf politically, at least some people have (ODM)... So with this knowledge that Raila will have just two terms of five years each, it is in the interest of ODM for the number two in command to go through an apprentice program early. By having Mudavadi mount his country wide campaign akin to the caucusing in the US political system, Mudavadi is being groomed for the top seat when the time for Raila to step aside after serving his two terms in office comes. It is also an opportunity for ODM to teach Kenyans on the future of conducting party affairs in Kenya; going through primaries to nominate national office bearers instead of the confusion we see elsewhere (UDM, PNU, KANU, drama, etc). This countrywide caucusing is not just a selling point for ODM as a democratic party, it gives us a sneak peak into the future (ten years). Mudavadi is no longer a youth in the ODM household, he has become his own man, he is learning the ropes fast, he is mastering the tricks of the trade, he has had the best on-the-job kind of training, and he learning to walk and talk with the big boys from his solo trips to the barber shop; this is good news to me and other card carrying ODM members, the future remains bright...
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 29, 2012 4:26:18 GMT 3
...Although Mudavadi's democratic right to challenge for the top seat in ODM may seem like spoiling for a fight with Raila, I believe that this is a strategy that ODM has adopted for long-term goals... IMO, ODM knows too well that at the moment it is only Raila who has the countrywide visibility and grass-roots support to challenge anyone out there for the presidency. So what is the game plan...? Kenya has turned a leaf politically, at least some people have (ODM)... So with this knowledge that Raila will have just two terms of five years each, it is in the interest of ODM for the number two in command to go through an apprentice program early. By having Mudavadi mount his country wide campaign akin to the caucusing in the US political system, Mudavadi is being groomed for the top seat when the time for Raila to step aside after serving his two terms in office comes. It is also an opportunity for ODM to teach Kenyans on the future of conducting party affairs in Kenya; going through primaries to nominate national office bearers instead of the confusion we see elsewhere (UDM, PNU, KANU, drama, etc). This countrywide caucusing is not just a selling point for ODM as a democratic party, it gives us a sneak peak into the future (ten years). Mudavadi is no longer a youth in the ODM household, he has become his own man, he is learning the ropes fast, he is mastering the tricks of the trade, he has had the best on-the-job kind of training, and he learning to walk and talk with the big boys from his solo trips to the barber shop; this is good news to me and other card carrying ODM members, the future remains bright... okolowaka,, I am in agreement with your analysis. The PM has spoken on this latest rumblings and so has Mudavadi I think this puts to rest any concerns. Raila, Mudavadi confirm unity ahead of the polls
By Kepher Otieno and George Olwenya Prime Minister Raila Odinga has re-affirmed his alliance with Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. Raila said the return match for the presidency race has come and called on ODM leaders to remain steadfast. "Mimi na Musalia ni kama chanda na pete (Musalia and I are like the finger and the ring)" said Raila on Sunday, during his father’ memorial in Bondo. The PM added: "Some people think we are fools and think we are going to fight. We are not going to fight." Raila warned his opponents that the party has a strategy to defeat them at the ballot. He was responding to ODM Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo who had challenged him and Mudavadi to name party presidential nominee. Jakoyo said this would stop apprehension among supporters. He said the continued battle for ODM torchbearer between Raila and Mudavadi was hurting the party and would make it crumble. "Raila and Mudavadi axis in the party will divide ODM when the leaders start to campaign for votes in readiness to delegates conference," he said. Jakoyo said enemies of ODM are likely to use the two leaders to infiltrate and undermine the party’s quest for the presidency. "You cannot change the tail to the head, and expect them to remain the same. The leaders must come up with a comprise candidate," he said. Lands Minister James Orengo disclosed that Raila and Mudavadi have been consulting on various issues in the Coalition Government. "If the partnership fails, then we are in a problem, and the leaders must continue to consult to have one voice in the leadership of the party," he said. Formidable Orengo predicted that Raila would win the presidential race. In response to Jakoyo, Mudavadi said he was in ODM by choice and no amount of intimidation would make him leave the party. He said ODM has hit the campaign trail and is going places to drum up support for its bid for the presidency. Mudavadi said the party is democratic and formidable and will not be shaken by its opponents. "I’m proud to be in ODM and will continue to work with the Prime Minister and other leaders," said the Local Government Minister. Meanwhile, the PM has urged Kenyans to shun leaders fronting tribal alliances. Raila reiterated that ODM is ready for elections even if they are called now. He expressed confidence that no party or alliance has the strength to defeat ODM in the forthcoming General Election. In his first public appearance since the confirmation of charges against four Kenyans at the International Criminal Court, Raila steered clear of the debate on the cases. He, instead, told Kenyans not to fall prey to leaders playing tribal politics to antagonise communities. Speaking in Vihiga County, on Sunday, the PM said he was still in the race to State House and asked the residents to support his bid. He further urged residents to support ODM’s quest to form the next Government, saying it was the only party driven by policies and not malice and vengeance. Raila said his opponents lack leadership ideals but only wanted to block his presidential bid. The PM was speaking at the burial of Paul Luyali Khaniri, brother to Hamisi MP George Khaniri. Additional reporting By Allan Kisia and Kennedy Murithi www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000051001&catid=289&a=1
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 29, 2012 10:53:09 GMT 3
...Although Mudavadi's democratic right to challenge for the top seat in ODM may seem like spoiling for a fight with Raila, I believe that this is a strategy that ODM has adopted for long-term goals... This spoiling for a fight is absolutely no problem in a democratic exercise. Let the people decide [in a non rigged exercise]. It is those fearful of an open and honest contest who prefer annoitments! Was it noT this open contest in Kasarani that threw up Raila as the flagbearer of the pentagon last time around. And confered total l egitimacy upon him! ...IMO, ODM knows too well that at the moment it is only Raila who has the countrywide visibility and grass-roots support to challenge anyone out there for the presidency. So what is the game plan...? This may be so, and may indeed be a reasonable assumption, but it can not mean the regular democratic process must be suspended to coronate Raila. No, other ambitious men and women must compete and accept defeat. And the margin of their defeat also gives them a mathematical indicator of how far they must work for next time! Once you go the let the people decide way, it is better to structuralise it all the way, that is intitutionalise it. And be consequential. ...Kenya has turned a leaf politically, at least some people have (ODM)... So with this knowledge that Raila will have just two terms of five years each, it is in the interest of ODM for the number two in command to go through an apprentice program early. This, okolowaka, is wisdom undiluted. I salute you for this insight. The long and gruelling campaign pitting Obama against Clinton, is now reputed to have fortified the two. Especially Obama. Remember Clinton broke down along the way. By the time Obama met Mccain in debates, he was so battle-harderned inspite of his youth and relative inexperience, that he made the maturity of John look stale. Apprentice program you call it! In every line of business this is a key period. When organisations plot to have some individuals skip it, I know they are hiring substandard and becoming uncompetetive. Doomed. ... By having Mudavadi mount his country wide campaign akin to the caucusing in the US political system, Mudavadi is being groomed for the top seat when the time for Raila to step aside after serving his two terms in office comes. It is also an opportunity for ODM to teach Kenyans on the future of conducting party affairs in Kenya; going through primaries to nominate national office bearers instead of the confusion we see elsewhere (UDM, PNU, KANU, drama, etc). Excellent import! [Omera kwanoni iyudo! iyie idagi imiyi tik maduong'!] A LESSON TO KENYA IN HOW TO CONDUCT PARTY POLITICS IN THE FUTURE! This is why I would urinate on Aladwa's face, consedering the kind of branch elections they conducted in Nairobi. Prehistoric! It must not be repeated at the national level. ...This countrywide caucusing is not just a selling point for ODM as a democratic party, it gives us a sneak peak into the future (ten years). Mudavadi is no longer a youth in the ODM household, he has become his own man, he is learning the ropes fast, he is mastering the tricks of the trade, he has had the best on-the-job kind of training, and he learning to walk and talk with the big boys from his solo trips to the barber shop; this is good news to me and other card carrying ODM members, the future remains bright... The future will be bright only if your advice is followed Mr. Waka. But if ODM annoints, crowns and coronates her candidates, ignoring the grassroots processes, she will prove herself a thing of the past era of Kings. And that is what we are saying goodbye to in the new conciousness heralded by the new constitution. Even if I do not trust opinion polls, this statistic always warns me. While the chattering classes and the political elite and the bareaucratic machinery does everything to scuttle the credibility of Ocampo and the ICC. Ordinary Kenyans have systematically maintained above 60% confidence. Flactuates, but is just about the same % of those who voted for the new constitution. There is therefore a huge disconnect, a huge gap between the ruled and the rulers. If ODM thinkers do not jump to the plate where the majority of the people are, she will be history. MAN WROTE[quote author= man board=general thread=6485 post=88595 time=1327791697Up until now, the only time you hear or see Mudavadi anywhere is either in Nairobi or his Mululu home or western backyard. Those are the only two places you would find him. The only time you see him attend an ODM rally is if the rally is held in western, and this is a fact. Now all of a sudden he is out and about touring other counties in the name of trying to seek votes from delegattes he had hitherto had no time for. Like I said, this is simply a sick joke, but it is his democratic right to seek nomination within the party[/quote] man, Please carefully go over what okolowaka has written.
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 29, 2012 11:12:41 GMT 3
[ okolowaka,, I am in agreement with your analysis.The PM has spoken on this latest rumblings and so has Mudavadi I think this puts to rest any concerns. omwenga,There is a problem here. If you agree with okolowaka's analysis and really appreciate the full import of his arguments, then you must pen an open letter to Raila and point out the mistake he is making in his thinking. Musalia competing against him does not mean their bond of ring and finger is broken. It means going through a recognised democratic process, primaries, where the [ODM] voters get the chance to display their true opinions in ballot. You see maybe the members all worship Raila, but they think Mudavadi, with his laid back image, will appeal more to the NON ODM vote baskets an an ethnically charged election, so they could STRATEGICALLY prefer him above Agwambo. How do we know without an open contest? After the contest, even if acrimonious, party loyalty will then endorse the Raila-Mudavadi ticket, or Mudavadi-Raila ticket. If the process is fair and free and competent, it would be impossible to argue with the legitimacy of the ticket. As a man living in the USA, and who probably follows party poltics in the USA, you must surely recognize and write the fine points of electoral and universal suffrage politics. LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE! Unless you do not trust them to give you the result you prefer, and must do a Kibaki-2007! The caucaus which brought forth the Raila-Mudavadi ticket was for the 2007 elections. It is correct to think that that mandate has run its course and for the next elections, a new mandate must be sought. As it is, Raila in this statement has forgotten democratic mandates have their longevities, and must be replenished. Tell him omwenga!
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Post by merlin on Jan 29, 2012 13:03:44 GMT 3
Omwenga, The conundrum which camp Mudavadi was faced with was this drum beat which had started gaining ascendacy and threatening to push Mudavadi into the outside peripheral within the partys stratas; that Raila should look elswhere to balance the ticket. I can tell you without contradiction that Musalia had started to believe the narrative and felt that his support was being taken for granted by those who were peddling it. Again we must remember that this man is under extreme pressure by his constituents to be seen as a leader not just a follower and to avert the prospects of greenhorns like Eugene who have made it a habit of chidding him as a politician with no spine, Musalia had to do something. Look at it from his point of view, if he does not ran for party leadership which mean he does not stand a chance of being the flag bearer of ODM in the coming election, then it would imply that the electorate in the entire western province would be lacking someone to coalesce around as an embodiment of their desires, therefore opening up poachers to sway minds and scattering their votes into myriad directions. It would also mean that his usefulness to the party would be on a short life span since he would not be bargaining from a point of strength when it comes to the choice of running mate. In short Mudavadis challenge for party leadership is his way of assuring that the number two slot is not open for debates or desirable for any other. I support Johns vision. Mudavadi has to position himself within the party as a leader because his supporters in his constituency are demanding this. We are not in America where voters can distinguish between Local, Federal and National interest. Our voter’s interest is very much linked to the tribe and even when there is no realistic change for reaching the house on the hill voters still demand their leader goes for it. If he doesn’t he will be seen as a failure and voters will look for another leader of their tribe who claims he is going for Presidency. Strategically it is very wise of Mudavadi to challenge the leadership of the party. It is also good to learn how democracy works and get used to it. So there are many reasons why the leadership should be challenged. The negative aspect I see is when Mudavadi challenges the leadership in an everything or nothing mode which means if he loses there will be bad feelings which can turn people away from the party.
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 29, 2012 16:05:38 GMT 3
[ okolowaka,, I am in agreement with your analysis.The PM has spoken on this latest rumblings and so has Mudavadi I think this puts to rest any concerns. omwenga,There is a problem here. If you agree with okolowaka's analysis and really appreciate the full import of his arguments, then you must pen an open letter to Raila and point out the mistake he is making in his thinking. Musalia competing against him does not mean their bond of ring and finger is broken. It means going through a recognised democratic process, primaries, where the [ODM] voters get the chance to display their true opinions in ballot. You see maybe the members all worship Raila, but they think Mudavadi, with his laid back image, will appeal more to the NON ODM vote baskets an an ethnically charged election, so they could STRATEGICALLY prefer him above Agwambo. How do we know without an open contest? After the contest, even if acrimonious, party loyalty will then endorse the Raila-Mudavadi ticket, or Mudavadi-Raila ticket. If the process is fair and free and competent, it would be impossible to argue with the legitimacy of the ticket. As a man living in the USA, and who probably follows party poltics in the USA, you must surely recognize and write the fine points of electoral and universal suffrage politics. LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE! Unless you do not trust them to give you the result you prefer, and must do a Kibaki-2007! The caucaus which brought forth the Raila-Mudavadi ticket was for the 2007 elections. It is correct to think that that mandate has run its course and for the next elections, a new mandate must be sought. As it is, Raila in this statement has forgotten democratic mandates have their longevities, and must be replenished. Tell him omwenga! Jakawanga,
I know from impeccable sources that Raila himself has no problem with Mudavadi challenging him for the flag-bearer position. And, if you have read all my comments on this, you'll note neither does yours truly but I have merely stated a preference for any party leader, not just Raila, not to be challenged when it comes to nomination, assuming they hold that position after being elected in an open and transparent election. I do not agree with your view that a fresh mandate from the people is sought because the 2007 has "run its course." That maybe true in the general election but should not necessarily be the case in party election for the party leader position, unless he or she has became a liability or otherwise one who cannot be elected for any number of reasons. When our friend Portia Simpson Miller of Jamaica was rigged out of the premiership in 2007, some within the People's National Party (PNP) wanted her deputy, a good friend of ours as well, to challenge her but he declined out of party loyalty and the rest is history as Madam Portia Miller went on to lead the ticket to a landslide victory as Prime Minister last month. This is practically the case in many countries, including right here in the US where party leaders are rarely challenged. Be as it may be, I get the sense we are not near close for this proposition to be widely accepted because many people confuse the concept with lack of openness and transparency when, in fact, that's not the case in this narrow sense. I laughed when I read you saying I should write about US "electoral and universal suffrage" because I recall one time telling my good friend Simeon Nyachae back in 2002 something I thought could work in his bid for the presidency. He gave me his signature laugh, telling me I had lived in America too long because those ideas won't fly at home! Ditto for conversations I have privately with ODM friends in Nairobi, they, too, find some of my ideas too American or too academic to work at home but that does not mean I won't keep trying. ;D That's not to say a number of ideas from the West are not finding their way into the rubric of our body politic; they are for there is no need to reinvent the wheel.
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 30, 2012 19:42:08 GMT 3
JakawangaI laughed when I read you saying I should write about US "electoral and universal suffrage" because I recall one time telling my good friend Simeon Nyachae back in 2002 something I thought could work in his bid for the presidency. He gave me his signature laugh, telling me I had lived in America too long because those ideas won't fly at home! Ditto for conversations I have privately with ODM friends in Nairobi, they, too, find some of my ideas too American or too academic to work at home but that does not mean I won't keep trying. ;D That's not to say a number of ideas from the West are not finding their way into the rubric of our body politic; they are for there is no need to reinvent the wheel. o mwengaOops! I know what you are talking about! that Nyachae chuckle. Sometimes on the left it is called the fanonian defence, after a famous passage from Frantz Fanon's writings, which in Africa was majorly interpreted as a fundamentalist rejection of imported solutions! Later to evolve into afro-centrism. Me I always say: don't bother inventing the wheel twice. Spend your R&D money elsewhere. Look at how the ideologically sufficient Nyachae later so became mentally insufficient, a moron, such that as presidential candidate, he said in public that an uncircumcised man could not be president of Kenya! I hope you had your laugh at him, and perhaps adviced him to come the USA for a brain transplant! and see the light! Even as natives laugh and say [imported ideas] are too academic, too impractical, too irrelevant, lets remember the truth: where do we go for further studies? where do those [elites] who can afford go for better treatment? where do our rich hide their money? send their children to school? I don't mind copying some solutions from such places! NB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind!
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Post by nereah on Jan 31, 2012 14:20:57 GMT 3
jakaswanga, ;D i cant imagine jukwaa without you and therefore would be greatly relieved if you pre-empt possible backlash by expunging the quote i have highlighted below from your post. NB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind![/color] [/quote]
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Post by phil on Jan 31, 2012 18:20:56 GMT 3
o mwengaNB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind! aaaeee! Jakaswanga, phew!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2012 18:27:56 GMT 3
o mwengaNB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind! aaaeee! Jakaswanga, phew! Ya really Jakaswanga!You will note too that Nereah of Amadi cautions your use of words. Are you trying to say that Kisiis and Luos have been getting it on for centuries now circumcision or no circumcision?
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Post by politicalmaniac on Jan 31, 2012 19:02:32 GMT 3
Mudamba jr knows his role. Take it from me, he realizes what the mafians and their acolytes are trying to do. Mululu hills and its environs are calm.
he he he fala mangaa!! phew
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 31, 2012 19:50:57 GMT 3
o mwengaNB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind! aaaeee! Jakaswanga, phew! Phil, Wacha niombe msamaha! But of course you know the ODM victory in 2007 did not come on a platter. It was close combat and vicious thrusts! This episode is a reminder! Sorry, I will sanitize my street language to conform to cultured jukwaa!
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 31, 2012 19:59:16 GMT 3
jakaswanga, ;D i cant imagine jukwaa without you and therefore would be greatly relieved if you pre-empt possible backlash by expunging the quote i have highlighted below from your post. NB: After Nyachae said the above in public of course he was politically dead. We responded: his daughters and wives have been voting uncircumcised dik with their kumas from time immemorial! forgive the old man his eroded mind! [/color] [/quote][/quote] And yet that offending quote, is a verbatim report on reality as it happened! It is just that when Uhuru Kenyatta used the word kehee in public, I had mellowed alot. Otherwise I would have given the son of Jomo a rejoinder to tie his tongue! But sawa, I will be careful to serve jukwaa only my other speciality, the queens certified stuff! the ones that drive the handle politicalmaniac to take a sulking sabbatical from Jukwaa!
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Post by b6k on Jan 31, 2012 21:04:33 GMT 3
Omwenga, Mudavadi may not have a reason to challenge Raila but doesn't he have the right to do so within ODM?
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Post by Omwenga on Jan 31, 2012 22:43:40 GMT 3
jakaswanga, ;D i cant imagine jukwaa without you and therefore would be greatly relieved if you pre-empt possible backlash by expunging the quote i have highlighted below from your post. And yet that offending quote, is a verbatim report on reality as it happened! It is just that when Uhuru Kenyatta used the word kehee in public, I had mellowed alot. Otherwise I would have given the son of Jomo a rejoinder to tie his tongue! But sawa, I will be careful to serve jukwaa only my other speciality, the queens certified stuff! the ones that drive the handle politicalmaniac to take a sulking sabbatical from Jukwaa! Jakaswanga,I did not immediately respond to you when I saw your post because I had no idea where you were coming from or going with the expression I deem offensive and not just offensive but should not be a part of any serious discourse as one expects of Jukwaa. Now that you note that as well, let me make this observation regarding my good friend Simeon Nyachae and that is, everyone everyone is entitled to one public stupidity, one public oddity and one public embarrassing moment in life. The more important one is and/or the later in life any of these happen, the worse it is. The converse is equally true. Nyachae just happened to have all three happen at once very late in life involving really a non-issue and thus the reason we are talking about it years later.
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