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Post by adongo12345 on Mar 31, 2007 7:27:19 GMT 3
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Post by adongo12345 on Apr 1, 2007 16:44:48 GMT 3
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Post by job on Apr 2, 2007 19:27:21 GMT 3
Adongo,
I will once again repeat some reality I previously penned at this very forum last year.
While many are waiting for some "expected" and "obvious" fall-out in ODM-K after its presidential nominations exercise,...the reality of the matter indicates the very opposite.
Any big fall-out prior to the General elections is not going to occur in ODM-K but infact from Narc-K.
ODM-K may loose a few disgruntled elements but nothing close to a fallout will occur for the most obvious reasons. Even the walk-outs may be limited to quite a few individuals who may be willing to "go-behind-the-line" of Kibaki's crowded Nyooba of sycophants and cheer leaders.
The reality check is this,.....in case you bolt out of ODM-K where do you go? To Narc-K ? or to a non-descript and broke third entity with just months to a general election?
None of the options seem palatable to many. The first option is made even more dire in view of these articles showing the turf wars, power-struggles and jostling for succession-positioning that's already going on within that crazy enclave.
"New thieves" are fighting "Old thieves" in an obvious Goldenberg vs Anglo-fleecing contest over the party.
Some believe they are the real "owners", others know they are the "financiers"(for obvious reasons), yet others still naively assume that the real owners are those that have worn Narc-K T-shirts.
The second option is neither tasty. There is no time to start a new party from scratch and popularize it countrywide with no elaborate mobilization machinery and resources. Clever ODM-K members know this well and will not waste a sweat trying.Even Biwott and Moi know this can't happen that's why they want to die with the name "KANU" over their foreheads at least. A name that's already known is easier to use in deceptive political games.
As the elections approach, my opinion is that there will be even more need to stick to ODM-K for those currently contemplating other alternatives.
Those expecting the ODM-K presidential candidates to be fighting each other later this year are basically in "lalaland" and will be woken up to some contrasting realities in the run-up to the polls.
But when the chips finally fall in place within the facade called Narc-K, underneath which is DP, and people like Mukisa Kituyi, Mbwa-tana (or is it Mungatana) & Chris Murungaru realize the conspiracy between the Saitotis, Karumes, and Michukis ( who have a tight succession plan looking beyond Kibaki's tenure) .....then you will see where a real fall-out will occur.
It is an open secret that Kibaki himself alongside Karume, Michuki and company have already endorsed George Muthengi Kinuthia Saitoti as the successor of Mwai Kibaki in their own plans. Awori is basically mark-timing for Saitoti and warming the seat. There is thus no room for any Mukisa or Kipruto Somebodys under the plan.
In their own agenda (which will BY THE WAY not happen ) they assume that Kibaki will win a second term and at some point hand over to a VP from Rift Valley called George Saitoti who is expected to carry on with their succession blueprint. These are board room conspiracies by rich ethnic homeboys which not only exclude other national leaders, but also exclude the entire electorate. These fellas are soon going to learn that Kenya is bigger than a few wealthy chauvinists and ethnic-commandos.
Right now there is only one party that is massively popularizing itself across the country relentlessly. The same party cannot also claim to pin-point one region of Kenya as it's hotbed for support due to it's diverse following across the nation. That same party has been building local and international structures for the last 3 years. It has resisted numerous attempts to divide it through massive political and financial overtures from the government, from Moi & Kibaki and from other players. It is a party that is harnessing the hopes(whether they are real or false)of many disillusioned, disenchanted, disenfranchised, isolated, marginalized, neglected, deprived, oppressed, and abused souls.
It is a party capitalizing on perceptions about governance, corruption and tribalism. It is a party that keeps the constitution-overhaul hope alive. It is a party that offers an alternative to the ugly face of tribalism, nepotism, favouritism, grand corruption, betrayal, deception, mercenary-hooliganism and other traits of bad governance.
It is a party that has proven it's mobilization acumen through well-run efforts to successfully rally the nation against the mighty hand of government and it's multi-billion-ful resources during the referendum campaigns.
ODM-K is known by most and will certainly prevail in the upcoming elections.
Let Kibaki continue with his conflicting hand movements,....one hand distributing cosmetic goodies across the land and the other hand perfecting tribal appointments and ethnic consolidation of power. We can clearly see through the smokescreen. December 2007 will prove this.
Job
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Post by job on Apr 3, 2007 20:03:43 GMT 3
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