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Post by njugunajohn on Feb 2, 2012 10:35:29 GMT 3
 61% to me seems to be 10% more than the 51% needed to clinch the Presidency. Is this a sign of things to come? Who knows? |
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Post by mzee on Feb 2, 2012 11:01:02 GMT 3
njugunajohn,
I'm afraid that that they will not vie and even if they did, which is ok with me, they are bound to be beaten. I like the fact that so many wants them to vie. In this way we would throw out the whole bunch once and for all.
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Post by nereah on Feb 2, 2012 11:51:50 GMT 3
this thread must either be locked or deleted. by order of the kenyan constitutional court !
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Post by mzee on Feb 2, 2012 11:59:10 GMT 3
nereah, The law cannot be applied retroactively. The thread was started before the ruling came  . |
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Post by phil on Feb 2, 2012 12:29:38 GMT 3
61% to me seems to be 10% more than the 51% needed to clinch the Presidency. Is this a sign of things to come? Who knows? Stop misinterprating the article. You seemingly want to force this to be seen your way with such sensational titles. By 'wanting them to stand' 61% are not saying that they want to vote for them. It's all in the same article that even if they stood they would not get the 61% that you wish they get! |
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Post by Luol Deng on Feb 2, 2012 12:34:39 GMT 3
Njuguna,
You are not very smart, 23.9% + 10.6% are the percentages that would vote for Uhu-Ruto, how near is that to 51%?
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Post by Omwenga on Feb 2, 2012 12:50:24 GMT 3
this thread must either be locked or deleted. by order of the kenyan constitutional court !I have not seen the order but normally a gag order will be limited to the parties in the litigation or those otherwise involved in the litigation in one form or another--but not the public at large. In this case, it would be Uhuru and Ruto who would be barred from publicly discussing the issue, ditto for the petitioners. |
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Post by Omwenga on Feb 2, 2012 13:08:01 GMT 3
61% to me seems to be 10% more than the 51% needed to clinch the Presidency. Is this a sign of things to come? Who knows? , Forget about what any poll says about this issue and just ask yourself this question: Should a person charged with killing your mother, father, son, daughter sister or brother be allowed to seek the presidency? How about one charged with rape of your family members and loved ones or one charged with forcible displacement of your family? Having said that, please note a few things: First, any poll can be manipulated to produce a desired outcome and this is done on a very regular basis--and often successfully so. Second, this is why what these two characters did in last weekend rallies is dangerous because they fed the public false narratives intended to incite; the public for the most part is not as sophisticated and informed as say members of this board. Third, even members of these boards and other fora routinely peddle the same lies and distortions as their counterparts on the ground and without shame. Fourth, we owe it to our country to at least be honest with how we promote or oppose our candidates. Fifth, we must in equal measure demand that the candidates cease and desist from peddling the malicious and reckless lies they have now taken to an unprecedented levels that could very easily lead to a second PEV none of us surely should even think of it happening. Sometimes we all need to step back and be and think Kenyan first for our beloved country is and ought to be greater than any one person or group of persons. |
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Post by nereah on Feb 2, 2012 15:10:09 GMT 3
nereah, The law cannot be applied retroactively. The thread was started before the ruling came . |
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Post by b6k on Feb 2, 2012 16:07:17 GMT 3
61% of whom? Inmates at Kamiti?
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Post by job on Feb 2, 2012 17:47:07 GMT 3
61% of whom? Inmates at Kamiti? The figure worth paying attention is not the 61% that includes many who think like me, but rather something else. The wide disparity between those wanting them to run; and those actually willing to vote for them is what should attract any political analyst's attention. Many actually want them to run; lose; then shut the heck up! 2) There's a classic and populist Prince Robin Hood story developing slowly at the background of the ICC process. It might fully blow out when ICC actually starts freezing the multi-billion assets (particularly vast land assets in Rift Valley and at the Coast) of the wealthy accused (with the redistributive goal of restitution to poor PEV victims). Of course, only a neutral, pro-justice government can facilitate such cooperation with ICC. Thus, the election campaigns might inadvertently boil down into a straight contest between either protecting land assets of the Kenyattas (concentrated in Rift Valley, Central, Nairobi & Coast) (Uhuru/Ruto or Kalonzo candidacy) vs opening up such land to the poor PEV victims (ODM candidate). Your guess is as good as mine where many a voter in say Rift Valley, Nairobi, Coast or anywhere else for that matter, would stand in such contest, irrespective of party affiliation.[/b] That's when these latter-day peace-rally-impressarios will see reversal of fortunes as they swap into the lonely recieving end of really charged populist rallies and messages. Watch this space; and check out the polls then! 3) ICC's confirmation of charges was a game-changer that will likely sink in when the Appeals (by the accused) are predictably thrown out. That's even if they're eventually spared homage at the Hague or Bamako. From the intense rainstorm uphill, there's a lot of water yet to gush downstream. It might sweep anything standing its way. Keen eyes are also cognisant of the complex and virtually antagonistic roles of the respective constituencies of Ruto and Uhuru that eventually led to the ICC in the first place. 4) I trust the judgment of millions of Kenyan voters - so long as their voice (vote) is not stolen either at the IEBC polling station or tallying point. Thanks to the new Constitution, there might be a run-off - inviting the positive prospect of issues-voting. That means, voters will for the very first time have to make real pragmatic choices beyond simplistic Ukabila.. If you are say a Kalenjin voter, and there's no Kalenjin among the top two in a run-off, mark these words, how you vote might be dictated by more pragmatic and conscientious considerations beyond Ruto's whimsical proclamation or personal interest. More local, bread and butter issues including - (yes) land; IDP resettlement patterns; which candidate is likely to secure devolution; and such questions all come into play. Kenyan people would likely exercise what they did at the last referendum. People tend to under-estimate the judgment of voters for thin reasons. When the race is reduced into a run-off - expect a new paradigm in Kenya, where issues-based & record-based voting might outweigh what tribal merchants have always believed. To the consternation of Kibaki & his allies in 2007, they didn't believe that certain tribes could actually vote for his opponent. Even the numbers nearer his own backyard had to be massaged to reflect mythical traditional norms. Many are yet to grapple with this drifting political phenomenon that P'maniac aptly points out as the shifting Overton Window.5) Kenyans! In this post-Katiba era (of run-offs), be wary of prophets who keep preaching the gospel about "so and so is unelectable" or "Kenyans will always vote tribal along certain lines!" Those are the kind of folks who were shell shocked when Raila got the solid Kalenjin vote in 2007 - despite their earlier peddling of myths about " unelectability". Expect new patterns; and of course, new shockers! 6) Disclaimer: Lastly and quite significant - I'm rarely a consumer of these polls through blind faith. I treat just a few of them with utmost caution. |
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Post by stibin on Feb 2, 2012 18:31:56 GMT 3
Perhaps we should also interrogate the qualities we desire in the next P.O.R.K and if particular candidates meet them.
If you ask me one of the priorities should be fixing the mis-management public finances which has largely contributed to poor economic growth. This implies the next P.O.R.K should have muscles and will to bring down high-level corruption networks in and outside the country. Who among the contenders has what it takes?
The next president should also be able to swiftly address historical inequalities and unfair exclusions whether related to land, education, and public employment e.t.c. This will require a person who looks beyond his tribe and understands the country needs diversity in ethnic groups to move forward. Can Uhuru or Ruto effectively execution this task?
Of course there is much more to weigh an aspiring candidate against but one can only hope that voters will decide wisely.
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Post by justfacts on Feb 2, 2012 18:43:39 GMT 3
Njuguna john,
Your argument is even more rigged (by misplaced loyalty) than any Kenyan poll i have come across.
Something tells me you get some wicked satisfied smile in generating a to and fro by your radical conclusions and stances here and elsewhere in this forum, seeing other correct you when you are in the full knowledge of you ways.
So i hope you see i have discussed you and not your allegation for i see no merit in even explaining why you are wrong. You already know that.
I can bet you are not a bore outside politics.
You seem to have the uncanny ability to get rounds thrown your way at your local watering hole just by your unconventional thinking.
But in Jukwaa you give a welcome contrary opinion and are quickly becoming a favorite punching bag to some.
Now, if only you could stick to facts........Tafathali
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Post by b6k on Feb 2, 2012 19:43:20 GMT 3
3) ICC's confirmation of charges was a game-changer that will likely sink in when the Appeals (by the accused) are predictably thrown out. That's even if they're eventually spared homage at the Hague or Bamako. From the intense rainstorm uphill, there's a lot of water yet to gush downstream. It might sweep anything standing its way. Keen eyes are also cognisant of the complex and virtually antagonistic roles of the respective constituencies of Ruto and Uhuru that eventually led to the ICC in the first place. I fall squarely in this school of thought. Uhuru & Ruto's cases going to full trial was a game changer that disqualifies the duo, regardless of the law, for the sake of sanity. I also don't see how the two communities can be reconciled on the say-so of the duo. In a macabre way they are simply reconfirming that the charges should stick BECAUSE they hold so much sway over "their people" that they (the people) can overlook all wrongs commited on each by the other during PEV. Not to mention the impression from the duos perspective that those who died, were maimed, or made IDP's were mere pawns on the chessboard to be used or cast aside at will. They should both not vie for the presidency or anything else for that matter. |
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