Kibaki Leads with 51% in another steadman poll

[50cents]

Kibaki should now have the confidence to embrace the 50 + 1 percent. Lets see if he supports that

www.kbc.co.ke/story.asp?ID=41829


Steadman Polls:Kibaki surpasses the 50% mark as Raila trounces Kalonzo
Written By:Francis Gachuri , Posted: Sat, Mar 31, 2007


Caption: President Kibaki leads by 51 percent according to latest polls


If elections were held today, President Kibaki would win with a wide margin after the latest opinion poll survey shows his standings at a commanding 51 per cent.

According to the quarterly survey by the Steadman Group released Saturday March 31, 2007, Kibaki has opened his lead against his closest rival Raila Odinga whose ratings stand at 17%, who has now overtaken Kalonzo Musyoka with 14%. Uhuru Kenyatta's popularity continues to wane coming a distant third with a mere 2%.

The government also posted impressive results in service delivery and performance with 79% of the 2027 respondents giving it thumbs up.

When the last survey results were released in December last year, Kibaki emerged top with 41%. But Saturday's results have shown his popularity rapidly rising thus widening the gap between him and the closest rival.

Not even a combined force of all the 9 aspirants contesting to be the ODM-K presidential flag bearer can match him in popularity test.

His popularity is especially strong in the rural areas where he scored 53% compared to 47% in the urban areas.

For the first time in the survey's history, Raila trounced Kalonzo raising stakes in the fight for the ODM-K presidential ticket.

But in case of a two-horse race between president Kibaki and Odinga, the survey shows Kibaki would floor him with a massive 62%.

Kibaki would edge out Kalonzo by 54% compared to the latter's 43% in case of two-horse race. Overall, Kalonzo Musyoka is the man the president's team would have to watch out for in a run-off.

The latest survey however is bad news for the embattled KANU chairman Uhuru Kenyatta whose popularity is fast plummeting.

ODM-K is leading in party popular party with 36% while Narc-K is second with 24%.

President Kibaki's government scored highly in the performance index with Education, health prison reform, econmic development and agriculture getting massive approval from the respondents.

Graft, insecurity and constitutional review remain the black spots the government must address, says the report.

A whooping 79% of the 2027 respondents gave Kibaki's performance thumbs up. He managed to get over 60% approval in all provinces, and did impressively well in Nyanza, often perceived to be Raila's sphere of influence where he scored 55%.

Even with the leadership wrangles facing the flower party, 60% of the respondents believe that Kibaki will seek a second term on a Narc-K ticket while Narc and DP come follow with 28% and 1% respectively.

46% of the respondents believe that there would be no other person among the current aspirants who would make a better president than Kibaki.

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THIS IS WHAT I SAID BACK IN OCTOBER 2006 ABOUT STEADMAN:
(you will notice that these fellas are shamelessly following from a script I well predicted way in advance,......notice the ping-pong ratings for Kalonzo, the notion about Raila never surpassing the 20% mark, THE LIE ABOUT KIBAKI SURPASSING THE 50% MARK, and other factors I predicted)

jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1160710172

here's my full 2006 article word by word.

About Steadman polls.

Who is Steadman's number one client? The Kibaki government.

What does this chief client (Kibaki) require from Steadman after paying it huge sums of taxpayer shillings? To push-poll and sway public opinion towards the government's side every three months (quarterly).

What is push-polling?

A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning with no form of accountability.

If Steadman conduct's it's mandated quarterly "opinion polls", on behalf of it's chief client (Kibaki) in an "unfavourable" manner - which means accurately and scientifically - then the contract (& of course big bucks) will be gone. End of story.

Steadman has to therefore skew its poll results in favour of the direction of the big bucks. People MUST BE told that Kibaki is in fact the best thing that has ever happened to Kenya. That he is overwhelmingly popular and will beat anybody in an election called today.

Steadman's complicity in this government ploy is quite obvious by now. They are push polling in an attempt to sway political opinion in Kenya, based on our collective gullibility and impressionability. Many Kenyans could in fact vote for a politician or a political outfit just for the thought that it could actually be the "winning" person or team. They would all love to feel included in the winning team. That's the Kenyan psyche of lending euphoric support to the presumed winner.

Here is my prediction. Kibaki's government has discovered push polling as a viable and effective tool to mislead and sway public opinion. He will want to monopolize this push-polling business and prevent other cunning politicians from releasing their own sets of counter "polls".

Kibaki knows very well that ODM-K is a real threat that would most likely lodge him out of office. He has to begin interfering with the Kenyan psyche through see-saw and ping-pong opinion polls that rates ODM's Kalonzo Musyoka's popularity high today and low tomorrow, and such kind of destroy-the-ODM stuff. Other candidates (read Raila) would be portrayed through sheer deceit as not being able to even surpass the 20% popularity mark. Kibaki may be very interested in facing off with certain candidates (percieved as weak) but totally abvoiding others (percieved as strong).

Just last month (SEPT. 2006), Kibaki quietly signed into law, an Act that outlaws "unrecognized" political pollsters and thus regulating this industry. Only pollsters that favour his ratings will be allowed in the industry.

www.eastandard.net/archives/cl/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143958811&date=27/09/2006

That was just a prelude of what is yet to come. We are going to be fed with a three-monthly dose of Steadman's push-polls which will state in successive fashion that Mwai Kibaki is not only very popular, but actually increasing in popularity until he surpasses the 50% mark. This would be used as a justification incase he rigs elections, nobody should therefore complain then.

We are watching you very keenly Kibaki. You will not succeed in this one. Kenyans must know the truth.

Steadman polls must be viewed for exactly what they are. A propaganda tool aimed at helping re-elect Kibaki. Little or no attention should thus be placed on them and the ODM leadership must seriously let wananchi know about this Steadman propaganda and ask them to ignore the polls henceforth.

Some obvious flaws of Steadman's amateurish and non-scientific "polls" are;

(a) Respondents belonging to a particular subset or combination of subsets of the population, based on demographic or political characteristics are selected, hence the sample is never a randomly selected one, neither is it a representative national sample of likely voters.

(b) Figures don't simply add up. For instance if you add up the respective percentages scored for each Presidential candidate (Kibaki, Kalonzo, Raila, Uhuru, Ruto et al), 41, 20, 13, 5, 2 ,& <1.....the total tallies to 80 something percent. Where are the other respondent's or where is the not sure column? In quantitative terms, this is a statistical misnomer which quickly raises a red flag.

(c ) The survey fails to make demographic inquiries on factors such as age, household income or status as a likely voter sufficient to allow for the tabulation of results based on a relevant subset of the population consistent with standard polling industry practices.

( d) The survey prefaces a question regarding support for a candidate on the basis of an untrue statement;

(e) The survey is primarily for the purpose of suppressing or changing the voting position of the respondent since the survey questions lack in logic. The questions are tailored to create bias through lead-questions.

(f) The polls evade asking the most likely political scenarios. I failed to see any practical polling question based on likely scenarios such as the possibility of there being two candidates, Kibaki from Narc and one candidate from ODM. For instance why not pair up possible scenarios like; Kibaki vs Kalonzo alone, Kibaki vs Raila alone, Kibaki vs Ruto alone or Kibaki vs Musalia alone. Eh ? See the mischief in these thugs.

(g) As Adongo accurately pointed out, why pose two responses that are non-mutually exclusive under a single survey question. Just where is the logic.

The answer is obvious. Steadman polls are just pro-Kibaki political ploys that need to be ignored.

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Having checked that,...fast forward to this date (April 2007)

You will now confirm from reading (f) above and contrasting with their brand new polls, that the Steadman thugs have also brought in a new dimension I critiqued them about in October last year. The idea of pairing up candidates,..eg Kibaki vs Raila, Kibaki vs Musyoka etc and sexing up figures to justify the notion that the 76 year old incumbent would still beat anybody in ODM.

You will also expect the quarterly trend to continue will new polls (like these recent one) being released in July 2007, October 2007 and another shortly before the December 2007 elections.

Needless to point, expect the same ping-pong games of rating Kalonzo up and down and diminishing his stature (to create unnecessary confusion among ODM supporters in an attempt to sway some Kalonzo supporters to Kibaki)

Expect Raila's ratings to stay below 20% in an attempt to perpetuate the stupid notion that he is "un-electable"

Expect Kibaki's ratings as per Steadman to be steady above 50% in an attempt to accomplish two things (a) instill permanently in gullible and impressionable minds,..that Kibaki is unbeatable! (b) create the perception that he is overwhelmingly popular as a justification for rigging the 2007 polls placing him above 50% -hence averting any run-off possibilities in case constitutional reforms are effected.

I don't also need to remind anyone that their poll figures will still never add up, as usual, with many respondents reported to be undecided.

Now back to reality and away from the fantasies and false sense of security by the credibility-lacking Steadman,......we know that Steadman consistently worked for the government in polls prior to the 2005 referendum,......which the government still ended up losing.

This propaganda appendage of the government (Steadman) , clearly given an illegal monopoly through the legislation allowing government regulation of opinion polls, must be looked at from a new perspective.

Citizens need to question the whole business of government regulation of opinion polls rationally.

We must ask ourselves whether a pollster like steadman should be in fact treated as a busines monopoly in this trade regulated by the heavy hand of government or whether the polling business should be open for competition to allow poll consumers a free hand to decide which polls they consider credible.

Next, ........this is free advice to my friend Kalonzo Musyoka given in absolute good faith one more time (this time through cyberspace)......

(1) Keep your eyes off Steadman polls,......gauge the ground objectively through the several avenues you know too well,.....because Steadman is simply the government mouth piece charged with depicting you as the "obvious" party candidate of ODM-K.

(2) Avoid making statements like these,...........

MWINGI North legislator Kalonzo Musyoka on Jan 4th, 2006 said
“Inywe nimwisi ndyaweta kana ningwenda kivila atharani, indi andu makenya nimawetete kana nimakwenda nitye kivila, (Unlike other hopefuls, I have not declared my interest in the presidency. But Kenyans have demanded that I vie for the post and be the successor of President Kibaki in 2007,” Kalonzo said, referring to the December poll conducted by the Steadman group that placed him ahead of other presidential aspirants.

At a meeting of local leaders in Mwingi town, Kalonzo insisted that Kenyans countrywide had--- according to the Steadman poll--- proposed that he was the best placed person to assume the presidency in the next general elections from the galaxy of potential candidates.

“I have never declared that I want the Presidency. It is the people of Kenya who declared that I am fit to be the next President,” Kalonzo said.

KALONZO must now know that these guys are using and burn him out through Steadman machinations,.....he should ignore them,..... come out and campaign without refering to Steadman,..they will NEVER EVER build him! They can only destroy him,..Kalonzo, Wake up now!

Lastly, any rational person must see Steadman for exactly what it is, a government propaganda machinery.
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It is alleged that Joe Wanjui now co-owns Steadman Kenya. What a coincidence!

Parliament has also effectively made the political polling business a preserve of a few companies like steadman. Very interesting!

If steadman achieved anything in their quarterly polling releases, I will admit frankly,....was in fact in instilling a false sense of might in the head of one Kalonzo Musyoka. It is joked the man was beginning to be referred in some circles as "Mr. Steadman Kalonzo Musyoka". He believed this thing for real!

I repeat for the umpteenth time,.........Kalonzo Musyoka's artificial profile was inflated by Steadman. The same pollster has now delfated it. That's an important lesson to learn. Kalonzo must now wake up, and stop cheating himself that he is the undisputed political supremo in ODM-K. If he thought he could go it alone, he should now think twice. ODM-K will be in better shape in the near future.

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